Utilization of the Regional Travel
Forecasting EMME/2 Model
for the Purposes of Long Range
Transportation Planning
Vladimir Livshits
Principal Planner
Regional Municipality of Peel
Ontario EMME/2 Users Group Meeting
April 8, 2005
2
Regional Travel Forecast
Consolidation of Travel Forecasts
Main Results: Major Future Travel
Patterns, Trip Interchanges and
Performance Indicators
Comparison with
Regional Plans
Comparison
with Other
Studies/Plans/D
ata
DCs update
MTO data
Modelling Support and Validation for
Planning Policies
Main Results: Screen Lines and Corridors
LOS, Aggregated Performance Indicators
for Implemented Policy Scenarios
Impact
Assessment
of the TDM
scenarios
Sensitivity
Testing for the
Planning
Policies
BATS, WCPS
Groups of Scenarios:
Mississauga
Data
Group 1: Base Case Scenarios
Group 2: Auto Occupancy and
Cap. Plan
Official
Plan
CATS
TTMP
Future Travel Demand Analysis
TTS based
Analysis
Peel Regional Model
Forecast
Alternative Modes Scenarios
Group 3: Transit Mode Split Scenarios
Group 4: Combined Scenarios
Group 5: Peak Hour Spreading
Scenarios
Group 6: Land Use Changes Scenarios
Group 7: Travel Time Changes
Scenarios
Group 8: Road Improvements Scenarios
An Input for the OPAs, DCs, Regional
Planning Exercises
Main Results: Recommended Road
Improvements and Rights-of-Way on
Regional Roads
Modelling of the
regional
transportation
networks
Forecast based
on the Regional
Model
Iterative procedure to determine
suggested regional road improvements
and ROW requirements for the future
years
Implementation
of improvements
Impact
assessment
Recommended regional road
improvements and ROW requirements
Future Passenger Travel Demand Trends
and Forecast
3
I. Consolidation of Travel Forecasts
4
II. Modelling Support and Validation for
Planning Policies
5
Physical Road Improvements Alone Can’t
Alleviate Congestion on Peel’s Arterial Roads
Peel Arterial
Roads
will
Congested
Even
with All Recommended
Peel Arterial
Roads
will be
be Congested
Even
with Recommended
Improvements Improvements
4400
Total +2%
4000
Uncongested Lane-Km
Total +9%
Congested Lane-Km
3600
Total +22%
3200
Lane-Km
2800
2400
2000
+10%
+44%
1600
1200
+96%
44%
47%
800
33%
400
21%
0
2001
2011
2021
Years
2031 Source: Regional
EMME/2 Model
6
Future Regional Network Performance: Capacity
Deficiency in Morning Peak Hour on Screen Lines
2001
2011
2021
2031
Legend V/C Ratio
Higher than 0.9
Base Case: 10 Year Capital Plan
Development Charges By-Law
0.9 or lower
7
Future Regional Network Performance: Morning Peak Hour on
Screen Lines
(After Recommended Improvements)
2011
Base Case and
2021
2031
Legend V/C Ratio
Higher than 0.9
Recommended Road Improvements
0.9 or lower
8
Additional Transit/TDM Options Tested
Scenario Name
Scenario Description and
Assumptions
Transit Mode Split Scenario
TTMP and Mississauga transit mode split
assumptions for years 2011 and 2021
Increased transit mode split for GO lines
corridors
Auto Occupancy and
Alternative Modes
Scenarios
Increase in auto occupancy and decrease in total
travel demand
Peak Hour Spreading
Scenario
Decrease in peak hour factors for aggregated trip
interchanges
Combined Scenario
The scenarios combine modal split assumptions,
auto occupancy assumptions, and peak hour
spreading assumptions
9
Relative Level of Congestion
20
60
40
80
85
Road Improvements
According to Peel Model
Combined Scenario
Increased Auto Occ. (2)
86
Peak Hour Spreading
94
Increased Auto Occ. (1)
95
Changes in Transit/ MS
0
100
Feasible Road
Improvements
100
Base
Impact of Additional Options On
Regional Road Congestion in 2021
Changes in Congested VKT on Regional Roads in 2021
120
92
80
69
10
Additional TDM
Measure
Implementing Transit/TDM Measures
can help offset 10 years of congestion growth!
Congestion level in 2021
with TDM and Transit
improvements
11
III. Input for the OPAs, DCs, Regional
Planning Exercises
12
Road Improvements Suggested by the Regional Model
13
Regional Road Improvements
2011
Dixie
Derry
Steeles
Mavis
Steeles
Additional Improvements
from planning process
with reviews from Public
Works
6 lanes
4 lanes
Cawthra
Britannia
Erin Mills
Hw
y5
0
Gore
Bovaird
Winston Churchill
Approved
Per 10-year
Capital Plan
6 lanes
4 lanes
3 lanes
2 lanes
ld
Mayfie
14
Airport
Regional Road Improvements
2021
ld
Mayfie
Gore
Bovaird
Mississauga
Approved
Per DC Bylaw
6 lanes
4 lanes
3 lanes
2 lanes
Winston Churchill
ld
Mayfie
Queen
Additional Improvements
from planning process
with reviews from Public
Works
6 lanes
4 lanes
Queensway
15
Regional Road Improvements
2031
Approved
Per DC Bylaw
(2021)
6 lanes
4 lanes
2 lanes
Queen
Kennedy
ld
Mayfie
Additional Improvements
from planning process
with reviews from Public
Works
6 lanes
4 lanes
16
Typical ROW Requirements
Lanes
2
4
6
ROW (m)
Urban/Rural
20-30
30-45
36-50
Source: Regional Official Plan


Above requirements do not include streetscaping or
transit needs.
Road widening can be accommodate in narrower
ROW, if necessary and in specific circumstances
17
Constraints to Road Widening
and ROW Expansion
 Physical Constraints
- Constraints due to existing residential, industrial
or commercial land uses
 Financial Constraints
- Expected high cost of acquiring additional ROW
 Legal Constraints
- Expected legal complications in acquiring ROW
18
Hwy 50
Areas of Constraint
Winston Churchill Blvd
Constraints to
Additional ROW
as Identified by
Public Works
32m – 36m
20m – 30m
Cawthra
40m – 50m
Regional transportation
vision, goals and policies
Provincial, regional and
municipal road and transit
network plans
Regional and municipal land
use and travel demand
forecasts and surveys’ data
Set of recommended improvements and rightof-way for the horizon years
No
Criteria for substantial change in LOS on
regional roads satisfied?
Yes
Consultations with external stakeholders
Peel Region Travel Forecasting Model
No
Yes
Travel forecast on regional roads
Criteria for substantial change in
LOS on regional roads satisfied?
Changes in v/c on regional roads
Yes, exclude from the set of improvements
Level of Service Criteria
Satisfied?
Feasible set of road improvements and right-of-ways
Yes
No, include in the set of improvements
No
Maximum number of
through lanes criteria
satisfied?
Non-planning constraints
(engineering, financial, legal,
administrative) satisfied?
No, exclude from the set of improvements
Yes, include in the set of improvements
Continuity and feasibility analysis from planning perspective
Set of road improvements from planning exercise
20
32m – 36m
20m – 30m
Cawthra
40m – 50m
Hwy 50
Gore
Airport
Dixie
Mississauga Rd
Current Regional OP
Winston Churchill Blvd
Regional Road
Right-Of-Way
Requirements
Winston
Churchill
Cawthr
a
Gor
e
Kenned
y
Winston
Churchill
Proposed
amendment to
right-of-way for
2031.
22
Hwy 50
Gore
Airport
Dixie
Mississauga Rd
Draft Schedule F
Winston Churchill Blvd
Revised
Regional Road
Right-Of-Way
32m – 36m
20m – 30m
Cawthra
40m – 50m
Areas with
Increased ROW
Recommended Regional Road Improvements
Short Term
Mayfield
Approved
Per 10-year
Capital Plan
6 lanes
4 lanes
3 lanes
2 lanes
Hwy 50
Additional
Improvements
Required
6 lanes
4 lanes
Cawthra
24
Recommended Regional Road Improvements
Mayfield
Bovaird
Queen
Mavis
Derry
Britannia
Mayfield
Gore
Hwy 50
Additional
Improvements
Required
6 lanes
4 lanes
Queensway
WCB
Approved
Per DC Bylaw
6 lanes
4 lanes
3 lanes
2 lanes
Winston Churchil
Airport
Medium Term
25
Recommended Regional Road Improvements
Long Term
Mayfield
Approved
Per DC Bylaw
(2021)
6 lanes
4 lanes
2 lanes
Queen
Additional
Improvements
Required
6 lanes
4 lanes
26