Supporting Information
Do early warning indicators consistently predict non-linear change in long-term ecological data?
Sarah J. Burthe1, Peter A. Henrys*2, Eleanor B. Mackay*2, Bryan M. Spears1, Ronald Campbell3, Laurence Carvalho1,
Bernard Dudley1, Iain D. M. Gunn1, David G. Johns4, Stephen C. Maberly2, Linda May1, Mark A. Newell1, Sarah
Wanless1, Ian J. Winfield2, Stephen J. Thackeray†2 and Francis Daunt†1
1
Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian, EH26 0QB, UK.
Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster, LA1 4AP,
UK.
3
The Tweed Foundation, The Tweed Fish Conservancy Centre, Drygrange Steading, Melrose, Roxburghshire, TD6
9DJ, UK.
4
Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, The laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth, PL1 2PB, UK.
2
* these authors contributed equally to the work
† these authors contributed equally to the work
Running title: early warnings of change in long-term ecological data
Table S1: Species or group time series data analysed to detect turning points
Species/group information
Asterionella spp.
Aulacoseira spp.
Botryococcus braunii
Ceratium spp.
Chlorella spp.
Closterium spp.
Cosmarium spp.
Cryptomonas spp.
Gymnodinium spp.
Mallomonas spp.
Peridinium spp.
Rhodomonas spp.
Staurastrum spp.
Taballeria spp.
Total Chlorophyll a
Trachelomonas spp.
Woronichinia spp.
Zooplankton filter counts
Asterionella spp.
Aulacoseira spp.
Botryococcus braunii
Ceratium spp.
Chlorella spp.
Closterium spp.
Cosmarium spp.
Cryptomonas spp.
Gymnodinium spp.
Mallomonas spp.
Microcystis spp.
Monoraphidium spp.
Peridinium spp.
Rhodomonas spp.
Staurastrum spp.
Taballeria spp.
Total Chlorophyll a
Woronichinia spp.
Zooplankton filter counts
Asterionella spp.
Aulacoseira spp.
Coot Fulica atra
Cormorant Phalacrocorax carbo
Cyclops nauplii
Cyclops spp.
Daphnia spp.
Eudiaptomus nauplii
Eudiaptomus spp.
Diatoma spp.
Great crested grebe Podiceps cristastus
Greylag geese Anser anser
Mallard duck Anas platyrhynchos
Mute swan Cygnus olor
Pinkfoot geese Anser brachyrhynchus
Pochard Aythya ferina
Teal Anas crecca
Tufted duck Aythya fuligula
Unicellular algae
Asterionella spp.
Black-legged kittiwake Rissa tridactyla
Calanus finmarchicus
Calanus helgolandicus
Calanus stages I to IV
Copepod nauplii
European shag Phalacrocorax aristotelis
Trophic level
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary consumer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary consumer
primary producer
primary producer
secondary consumer
apex predator
primary consumer
primary consumer
primary consumer
primary consumer
primary consumer
primary producer
secondary consumer
primary consumer
secondary consumer
secondary consumer
primary consumer
secondary consumer
secondary consumer
secondary consumer
primary producer
primary producer
apex predator
primary consumer
primary consumer
primary consumer
primary consumer
apex predator
Location
Blelham Tarn
Blelham Tarn
Blelham Tarn
Blelham Tarn
Blelham Tarn
Blelham Tarn
Blelham Tarn
Blelham Tarn
Blelham Tarn
Blelham Tarn
Blelham Tarn
Blelham Tarn
Blelham Tarn
Blelham Tarn
Blelham Tarn
Blelham Tarn
Blelham Tarn
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite Water
Esthwaite Water
Esthwaite Water
Esthwaite Water
Esthwaite Water
Esthwaite Water
Esthwaite Water
Esthwaite Water
Esthwaite Water
Esthwaite Water
Esthwaite Water
Esthwaite Water
Esthwaite Water
Esthwaite Water
Esthwaite Water
Esthwaite Water
Esthwaite Water
Esthwaite Water
Esthwaite Water
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
Time
Series
length
(years)
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
26
25
25
25
25
25
25
45
26
25
43
26
26
28
28
26
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
26
46
28
44
39
39
40
28
35
35
35
30
35
39
28
39
40
40
40
40
40
40
39
54
34
54
54
54
54
41
Start
Year
1978
1978
1978
1978
1978
1978
1978
1978
1978
1978
1978
1978
1978
1978
1964
1978
1978
1967
1978
1978
1978
1978
1978
1978
1978
1978
1978
1978
1978
1978
1978
1978
1978
1978
1964
1978
1967
1968
1968
1968
1979
1972
1972
1972
1977
1972
1968
1979
1968
1968
1968
1968
1968
1968
1968
1968
1958
1981
1958
1958
1958
1958
1973
End
Year
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2009
2003
2003
2010
2003
2003
2005
2005
2003
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2003
2009
2005
2010
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2011
2014
2011
2011
2011
2011
2013
Data
resolution
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Annual
Annual
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Week/biweek
Monthly
Annual
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Annual
Species/group information
Fulmar Fulmarus glacialis
Guillemot Uria aalge
Hyalochaete spp.
Lesser sandeel Ammodytes marinus
Nitzsch delicatissima
Paralia sulcata
Phaeoceros spp.
Razorbill Alca torda
Rhizosol semispina
Rhizosol stylifera
Sea-trout Salmo trutta (Sandstell)
Sea-trout S. trutta (Whitesands )
Sea-trout total average catch S. trutta
Skeleton costatum
Temora longicornis
Thalassionema nitzschoides
Thalassiosira spp.
Arctic charr Salvelinus alpinus
Arctic charr Salvelinus alpinus
Asterionella spp.
Aulacoseira spp.
Bosmina spp.
Ceratium spp.
Chlorella spp.
Cosmarium spp.
Cryptomonas spp.
Daphnia spp.
Gymnodinium spp.
Mallomonas spp.
Monoraphidium spp.
Perch Perca fluviatilis
Peridinium spp.
Pike Esox lucius
Rhodomonas spp.
Staurastrum spp.
Taballeria spp.
Total Calanoids
Total Chlorophyll a
Total Cyclopoids
Woronichinia spp.
Zooplankton filter counts
Arctic charr Salvelinus alpinus
Asterionella spp.
Aulacoseira spp.
Botryococcus braunii
Ceratium spp.
Chlorella spp.
Closterium spp.
Cosmarium spp.
Cryptomonas spp.
Gymnodinium spp.
Mallomonas spp.
Monoraphidium spp.
Perch Perca fluviatilis
Peridinium spp.
Pike (Esox lucius)
Rhodomonas spp.
Staurastrum spp.
Taballeria spp.
Total Chlorophyll a
Trachelomonas spp.
Woronichinia spp.
Zooplankton filter counts
Trophic level
apex predator
apex predator
primary producer
secondary consumer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
apex predator
primary producer
primary producer
apex predator
apex predator
apex predator
primary producer
primary consumer
primary producer
primary producer
secondary consumer
secondary consumer
primary producer
primary producer
primary consumer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary consumer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
secondary consumer
primary producer
apex predator
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary consumer
primary producer
secondary consumer
primary producer
primary consumer
secondary consumer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
secondary consumer
primary producer
apex predator
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary producer
primary consumer
Location
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
Windermere North
Windermere North
Windermere North
Windermere North
Windermere North
Windermere North
Windermere North
Windermere North
Windermere North
Windermere North
Windermere North
Windermere North
Windermere North
Windermere North
Windermere North
Windermere North
Windermere North
Windermere North
Windermere North
Windermere North
Windermere North
Windermere North
Windermere North
Windermere North
Windermere South
Windermere South
Windermere South
Windermere South
Windermere South
Windermere South
Windermere South
Windermere South
Windermere South
Windermere South
Windermere South
Windermere South
Windermere South
Windermere South
Windermere South
Windermere South
Windermere South
Windermere South
Windermere South
Windermere South
Windermere South
Windermere South
Time
Series
length
(years)
47
41
54
35
54
54
54
26
54
54
264
160
160
54
54
54
54
47
74
26
26
31
26
26
26
26
31
26
26
26
71
26
70
26
26
26
31
46
31
26
44
47
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
71
26
70
26
26
26
46
26
26
43
Start
Year
1966
1973
1958
1973
1958
1958
1958
1988
1958
1958
1736
1840
1840
1958
1958
1958
1958
1966
1940
1978
1978
1979
1978
1978
1978
1978
1979
1978
1978
1978
1943
1978
1944
1978
1978
1978
1979
1964
1979
1978
1967
1966
1978
1978
1978
1978
1978
1978
1978
1978
1978
1978
1978
1943
1978
1944
1978
1978
1978
1964
1978
1978
1967
End
Year
2013
2013
2011
2007
2011
2011
2011
2013
2011
2011
2000
2000
2000
2011
2011
2011
2011
2012
2013
2003
2003
2010
2003
2003
2003
2003
2010
2003
2003
2003
2013
2003
2013
2003
2003
2003
2010
2009
2010
2003
2010
2012
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2013
2003
2013
2003
2003
2003
2009
2003
2003
2010
Data
resolution
Annual
Annual
Monthly
Annual
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Annual
Monthly
Monthly
Annual
Annual
Annual
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Annual
Annual
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Annual
Week/biweek
Annual
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Annual
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Annual
Week/biweek
Annual
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Week/biweek
Figure S1: Timing and direction of change of significant turning points in time series representing different trophic levels for
each of the studied ecosystems. The direction of change in turning points is indicated by the symbols. The length of the lines
represents the length of the data available (truncated to 1958 for ease of viewing; only 6% of time series had data available prior
to 1958).
Primary producers
Primary consumers
Secondary consumers
Apex predators
North Sea
Loch Leven
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Cumbrian Lakes: Blelham tarn
1960
1970
1980
1970
1980
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Cumbrian Lakes: Esthwaite
1990
2000
2010
Cumbrian Lakes: Windermere North
1960
Negative to stationary
Positive to stationary
Stationary to negative
Stationary to positive
1990
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2000
2010
Cumbrian Lakes: Windermere South
2000
2010
1960
1970
1980
1990
Figure S2: The number of significant turning points per decade of data observed in time series across the four trophic levels
considered. Boxes indicate the median, 25th and 75th percentile, with error bars indicating the 10th and 90th percentile and outliers
shown as black circles.
Turning point rate (number of turns per decade)
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Primary
producer
Primary
consumer
Secondary
consumer
Trophic Level
Apex
predator
Arctic charr
Arctic charr
Arctic charr
Asterionella spp.
Asterionella spp.
Asterionella spp.
Asterionella spp.
Asterionella spp.
Aulacoseira spp.
Aulacoseira spp.
Aulacoseira spp.
Aulacoseira spp.
Bosmina spp.
Botryococcus braunii
Botryococcus braunii
Botryococcus braunii
Calanus finmarchicus
Calanus helgolandicus
Calanus stages I to IV
Ceratium spp.
Ceratium spp.
Ceratium spp.
Ceratium spp.
Chlorella spp.
Chlorella spp.
Chlorella spp.
Chlorella spp.
Closterium spp.
Closterium spp.
Closterium spp.
Coot
Copepod nauplii
Cormorant
Cosmarium spp.
Cosmarium spp.
Cosmarium spp.
Cosmarium spp.
Cryptomonas spp.
Cryptomonas spp.
Cryptomonas spp.
Cryptomonas spp.
Daphnia spp.
Fulmar
Great crested grebe
Greylag geese
Guillemot
Gymnodinium spp.
Gymnodinium spp.
Gymnodinium spp.
Gymnodinium spp.
Windemere (N)
Windermere (S)
Windemere (N)
North Sea
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Windermere (N)
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (S)
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (S)
Loch Leven
North Sea
Loch Leven
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Windermere (N)
North Sea
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
North Sea
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Location
Species
dataset
Table S2: Turning points and directions of the turns for the 126 datasets analysed. Directions of turns are as follows: negative to stationary (indicated by a “1” in a green
square); stationary to positive (“2” in a blue square); positive to negative (“3” in an orange square); stationary to negative (“4” in a pink square).
X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X
3
X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X
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X X X X
3
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
4
4
4
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
1
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
2
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X
1
2
3
1
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
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X X
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X X
X
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X
X
X
X
X
X
X X X X X X X X X X X
4
1
2
3
4
1
1
2
2
3
3
2
X X X
X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X
X X X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
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X
X
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X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X X
X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X
X X X
X X X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
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X
X
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X
X
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X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X X
X X X
1
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
3
3
2
1
4
2
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
3
4
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
2
X
X
X
X
1
4
3
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
4
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
X X X
X
X X X
X X X
X X
X X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X
X X
X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X
X X
X X
X
X X
X X
X X
X X
Location
North Sea
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Loch Leven
Esthwaite
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Loch Leven
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
North Sea
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Species
dataset
Black-legged kittiwake
Asterionella spp.
Aulacoseira spp.
Cyclops nauplii
Cyclops sa
Daphnia spp.
Diaptomus spp.
Diaptomus nauplii
Diatoma
Unicellular algae
Mallomonas spp.
Mallomonas spp.
Mallomonas spp.
Mallomonas spp.
Mallard duck
Microcystis spp.
Monoraphidium spp.
Monoraphidium spp.
Monoraphidium spp.
Mute swan
Hyalochaete spp.
Paralia sulcata
Phaeoceros spp.
Nitzsch delicatissima
Rhizosol semispina
Rhizosol stylifera
Skeleton costatum
Temora longicornis
Thalassiosira spp.
Thalassionema nitzschoides
Perch
Perch
Peridinium spp.
Peridinium spp.
Peridinium spp.
Peridinium spp.
Pike
Pike
Pinkfoot geese
Pochard
Razorbill
Rhodomonas spp.
Rhodomonas spp.
Rhodomonas spp.
Rhodomonas spp.
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
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X
X
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X
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X
X
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X
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X
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X
X
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X
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X
X
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X
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X
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X
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X
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X
X
X
X
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X
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X
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X
X
X
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X
X
X
X
X
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X
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X
X
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X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
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X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X X X X X X X X X X X X
4
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
3
4
1
4
1
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X X X X X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
4
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X X
X
X X X
X X X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X X
X X X
X
X
X
X
X X X
X
X X X
X X X
4
X
X
X
X
1
2
3
2
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
1
1
4
1
2
4
4
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
3
1
1
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
2
2
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
2
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
2
3
3
1
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
3
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X X X
X
X
X
X
2
2
X X X X X X
X X X X X X
3
3
X X X
X
X X X
X X X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Loch Leven
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Windermere (N)
Windermere (N)
Blelham Tarn
Windermere (S)
Loch Leven
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Location
Species
dataset
Lesser sandeel
Sea trout (Sandstell)
Sea trout average catch
Sea trout (Whitesands )
European shag
Staurastrum spp.
Staurastrum spp.
Staurastrum spp.
Staurastrum spp.
Taballeria spp.
Taballeria spp.
Taballeria spp.
Taballeria spp.
Teal
Total Chlorophyll a
Total Chlorophyll a
Total Chlorophyll a
Total Chlorophyll a
Total Calanoids
Total Cyclopoids
Trachelomonas spp.
Trachelomonas spp.
Tufted duck
Woronichinia spp.
Woronichinia spp.
Woronichinia spp.
Woronichinia spp.
Zooplankton filter counts
Zooplankton filter counts
Zooplankton filter counts
Zooplankton filter counts
X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
2
3
3
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
2
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
3
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
4
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X
X X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
3
1
X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X
X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
2
4
1
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X X X X
X X X X X
X
X X X X X
X X X
X X X X X
X X X X X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Table S3: Early-warning indicator (EWI) detection classification results based on variance for each dataset analysed (one line per dataset). Greyed out squares are years not
covered by the time series (which have different start and end dates). EWI detection classifications are indicated in the time series as follows (see main paper for descriptions
of the different classifications): False positives: FP in a pink square (the year in which the significant increase in variance occurred, with no associated turning point within 10
years); False negatives: FN in a red square (the year in which the significant turning point in the abundance data occurred, with no preceding EWI within 10 years); True
positives: TP in a yellow square (the year in which the EWI occurred that was associated with a turning point within a 10 year period- this associated turning point is indicated
by an “X” in a yellow square). Some false negatives and false positives that occurred within 10 years of the start or end of the dataset respectively, could not confidently be
assigned and these are indicated as either ?FN (pink) or ?FP (red). These uncertain classifications are not included in summaries in the main paper. For ease of viewing, we
only show data between 1940 and 2014. For the three sea-trout datasets additional data prior to this period was analysed and included in calculations of the total EWI
detection classes (note therefore that false negatives close to 1940 are therefore not coded as uncertain because the true start of the time-series is much earlier).
Location
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Species
dataset
Arctic charr
Arctic charr
Arctic charr
Asterionella spp.
Asterionella spp.
Asterionella spp.
Asterionella spp.
Asterionella spp.
Aulacoseira spp.
Aulacoseira spp.
Aulacoseira spp.
Aulacoseira spp.
Bosmina spp.
Botryococcus braunii
Botryococcus braunii
Botryococcus braunii
Calanus finmarchicus
Calanus helgolandicus
Calanus stages I to IV
Ceratium spp.
Ceratium spp.
Ceratium spp.
Ceratium spp.
Chlorella spp.
Chlorella spp.
Chlorella spp.
Chlorella spp.
Closterium spp.
Closterium spp.
Closterium spp.
Coot
Copepod nauplii
Cormorant
Cosmarium spp.
Cosmarium spp.
Cosmarium spp.
Cosmarium spp.
Cryptomonas spp.
Cryptomonas spp.
Cryptomonas spp.
Cryptomonas spp.
Daphnia spp.
Windemere (N)
Windermere (S)
Windemere (N)
North Sea
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Windermere (N)
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (S)
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (S)
Loch Leven
North Sea
Loch Leven
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Windermere (N)
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
?FN
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
FN
X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X
X X X X
FN
FN
TP
X
FP
TP X
FP
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X
X
X
X
FP
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
?FP ?FP
FP
FP
?FP
FP
FP
FP
FP
FP
FP
?FP
FP
?FP
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
FN
?FP
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
?FP
X X X X X X X
X X X X X
X X X X X X X
FN
FNFP
FP
TP X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X
TP
FP
?FN
FN
FN
X
FN
X
?FP
X
X
X
?FP
X
?FP
X
X
X
X
X
TP X
TP X
?FN
FP
FP
FN
FN
?FN
FP
FP FP
FP FP
FP
TP
TP
X X
X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X
X X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X X
X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X
X X X
X X X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
FN
FP
FP
FP
?FP
?FP
?FN
FN
FN
FN
FN
X
?FP
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
FN
X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X
X
X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
Location
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Species
dataset
Fulmar
Great crested grebe
Greylag geese
Guillemot
Gymnodinium spp.
Gymnodinium spp.
Gymnodinium spp.
Gymnodinium spp.
Black-legged kittiwake
Asterionella spp.
Aulacoseira spp.
Cyclops nauplii
Cyclops sa
Daphnia spp.
Diaptomus spp.
Diaptomus nauplii
Diatoma
Unicellular algae
Mallomonas spp.
Mallomonas spp.
Mallomonas spp.
Mallomonas spp.
Mallard duck
Microcystis spp.
Monoraphidium spp.
Monoraphidium spp.
Monoraphidium spp.
Mute swan
Hyalochaete spp.
Paralia sulcata
Phaeoceros spp.
Nitzsch delicatissima
Rhizosol semispina
Rhizosol stylifera
Skeleton costatum
Temora longicornis
Thalassiosira spp.
Thalassionema nitzschoides
Perch
Perch
Peridinium spp.
Peridinium spp.
Peridinium spp.
Peridinium spp.
Pike
Pike
Pinkfoot geese
Pochard
Razorbill
North Sea
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
North Sea
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
North Sea
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Loch Leven
Esthwaite
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Loch Leven
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
North Sea
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
FP
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
FP
FN
FNTP X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
?FN
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
FN
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X X X
FNTP
FN
FN
TP
FN
?FN
FN
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X X X X X
X
X
X
X
?FN
X X
X X
X X
X X
?FP
?FP
FP
?FP
?FP
?FP
?FP
FP
FP
FP
FP
X
X
X
X
FN
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
?FP
TP
X
X
X
X
X TP
FP
?FP
FN
X X X
X
X X X
X X X
FN
?FP
?FP
?FP
FP
FP
X
FP
FP
?FP ?FP
FP
?FP
?FP
X X X
X
X X X
X X X
FP
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
FP
X
X
X X X
X X X
FP
FN
FP
?FP
FP
FN
?FN
TP
FN
?FP
FP
X
FN
FP
FP
FN
FP
FP
FP
?FP
FP
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X
X X
X X
X X
FP
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
FN
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X
X X
X X
X X
TP
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
FP
?FN
FP
X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
FN
TP
FN
FN
?FN
X X X
X
X X X
X X X
FN
?FP
?FP
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
FP
FN
FN
FP
X
X X X
X X X
X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
FN
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X
X
X X X X
X X X X
X X X X
X X X X
FN
X
X
X X X X
X X X X
X
X X X X
X X X X
FN
X X X X X
X X X X X
X X X X X
X X X X X
FN
X X X X
X X X X
X X X X
X X X X
X X X X
X X X X
X X X X
X X X X
X X X X
X X X X X
X X X X X
X X X X X
X X X X X
X X X X
X X X X X
X X X X X
X X X X X
X X X X X
X X X X
FN
?FN
FP
X X
X X
X X
X X
FN
FP
FP
FN
X
X
X
X
FN
FN
X
FP
X
X
X
X
X
FN
FN
FP
FP
FP
FP
X
X
X
X
FP
X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X
X X X
?FP
Location
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Species
dataset
Rhodomonas spp.
Rhodomonas spp.
Rhodomonas spp.
Rhodomonas spp.
Lesser sandeel
Sea trout (Sandstell)
Sea trout average catch
Sea trout (Whitesands )
European shag
Staurastrum spp.
Staurastrum spp.
Staurastrum spp.
Staurastrum spp.
Taballeria spp.
Taballeria spp.
Taballeria spp.
Taballeria spp.
Teal
Total Chlorophyll a
Total Chlorophyll a
Total Chlorophyll a
Total Chlorophyll a
Total Calanoids
Total Cyclopoids
Trachelomonas spp.
Trachelomonas spp.
Tufted duck
Woronichinia spp.
Woronichinia spp.
Woronichinia spp.
Woronichinia spp.
Zooplankton filter counts
Zooplankton filter counts
Zooplankton filter counts
Zooplankton filter counts
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Loch Leven
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Windermere (N)
Windermere (N)
Blelham Tarn
Windermere (S)
Loch Leven
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
X
X
X
X
X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
FN
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
FN
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
FN
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X
X
X
X
X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
FN
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
FP
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
FP
FP
?FP?FP X X X
X
X X X
?FP ?FP
X X X
FP
?FP
FP
FN
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
?FP
FN
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
FN
FP
FN
X
X
X
X
X
X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X X
X
?FPX X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X X X X
X X X X X
X
X X X X X
X X X
X X X X X
X X X X X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
?FP
?FP
?FP
FP FP
FP
FP
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
?FP
FP
FP
FP
?FP
?FP
FP
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X
X X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
FP
?FP
FP
?FP
FP
FP
?FP
FP
?FP
FP
FP
?FN
?FP
?FP
FP
FP
FP
FN
?FP
FN
?FP
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X
X
X
?FPX
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Table S4: Early-warning indicator (EWI) detection classification results based on autocorrelation for each dataset analysed (one line per dataset). Greyed out squares are
years not covered by the time series (which have different start and end dates). EWI detection classifications are indicated in the time series as follows (see main paper for
descriptions of the different classifications): False positives: FP in a pink square (the year in which the significant increase in variance occurred, with no associated turning
point within 10 years); False negatives: FN in a red square (the year in which the significant turning point in the abundance data occurred, with no preceding EWI within 10
years); True positives: TP in a yellow square (the year in which the EWI occurred that was associated with a turning point within a 10 year period- this associated turning
point is indicated by an “X” in a yellow square). Some false negatives and false positives that occurred within 10 years of the start or end of the dataset respectively, could not
confidently be assigned and these are indicated as either ?FN (pink) or ?FP (red). These uncertain classifications are not included in summaries in the main paper. For ease of
viewing, we only show data between 1940 and 2014. For the three sea-trout datasets additional data prior to this period was analysed and included in calculations of the total
EWI detection classes (note therefore that false negatives close to 1940 are therefore not coded as uncertain because the true start of the time-series is much earlier).
Windemere (N)
Windermere (S)
Windemere (N)
North Sea
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Windermere (N)
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (S)
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (S)
Loch Leven
North Sea
Loch Leven
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Windermere (N)
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Location
Species
dataset
Arctic charr
Arctic charr
Arctic charr
Asterionella spp.
Asterionella spp.
Asterionella spp.
Asterionella spp.
Asterionella spp.
Aulacoseira spp.
Aulacoseira spp.
Aulacoseira spp.
Aulacoseira spp.
Bosmina spp.
Botryococcus braunii
Botryococcus braunii
Botryococcus braunii
Calanus finmarchicus
Calanus helgolandicus
Calanus stages I to IV
Ceratium spp.
Ceratium spp.
Ceratium spp.
Ceratium spp.
Chlorella spp.
Chlorella spp.
Chlorella spp.
Chlorella spp.
Closterium spp.
Closterium spp.
Closterium spp.
Coot
Copepod nauplii
Cormorant
Cosmarium spp.
Cosmarium spp.
Cosmarium spp.
Cosmarium spp.
Cryptomonas spp.
Cryptomonas spp.
Cryptomonas spp.
Cryptomonas spp.
Daphnia spp.
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
?FN
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
FN
X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X
X X X X
FN
FN
FN
FP
FP
FP
FN
TP
FP
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X
X
X
X
FP
FP
FP
FP
?FP
?FP
FP
?FP
FP
FP
FP
?FP
FP
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
?FP
X X X X X X
X X X X
X X X X X X
FP
FP
X TP
?FP
?FP
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X
X X
X X
FN
FN
FN
FN
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
FP
X X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X
?FN
FN
FN
FN
FN
?FN
FP
?FP
FP FP
?FP
FN
FN
FN
FN
X X X
X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
?FPX X X
X
X X X
FN
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
FP
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
?FN
FN
FP
?FN
FP
?FP
TP
TP
X
X
FN
FP FP
FN
?FP
?FP ?FP
?FP
FP FP
X
?FP?FP
X
X
X
X X
X
X X
X X
X X
X
X X X
X X X
?FP ?FP
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
?FP
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X
X X
X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
Location
North Sea
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
North Sea
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
North Sea
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Loch Leven
Esthwaite
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Loch Leven
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
North Sea
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Species
dataset
Fulmar
Great crested grebe
Greylag geese
Guillemot
Gymnodinium spp.
Gymnodinium spp.
Gymnodinium spp.
Gymnodinium spp.
Black-legged kittiwake
Asterionella spp.
Aulacoseira spp.
Cyclops nauplii
Cyclops sa
Daphnia spp.
Diaptomus spp.
Diaptomus nauplii
Diatoma
Unicellular algae
Mallomonas spp.
Mallomonas spp.
Mallomonas spp.
Mallomonas spp.
Mallard duck
Microcystis spp.
Monoraphidium spp.
Monoraphidium spp.
Monoraphidium spp.
Mute swan
Hyalochaete spp.
Paralia sulcata
Phaeoceros spp.
Nitzsch delicatissima
Rhizosol semispina
Rhizosol stylifera
Skeleton costatum
Temora longicornis
Thalassiosira spp.
Thalassionema nitzschoides
Perch
Perch
Peridinium spp.
Peridinium spp.
Peridinium spp.
Peridinium spp.
Pike
Pike
Pinkfoot geese
Pochard
Razorbill
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
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X
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X
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X
X
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X
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X
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X
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X
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X
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X
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X
X
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X
X
X
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X
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X
X
X
X
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X
X
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X
X
X
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X
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X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
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X
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X
X
X
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X
X
X
X
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X
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X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
FN
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X X X X X X X X X X
FP
FN
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
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X
X
X
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X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
?FN
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
FN
TP
FN
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X X X
FN
?FP
X
FN
FN
FN
FN
FN
FN
FN
FP
?FN
FN
FN
X X X
X
X X X
X X X
FP
FN
FN
X
X
X
X
FN
FN
X
X
X
X
X X X X X X
FP
FP
FP
FP
FP
FP
FP
FP
?FP?FP
FP
?FP
?FP?FP
FP
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
?FN
X X
X X
X X
X X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
TP
X
FP
TP
X TP
?FP
FP
FP
FP
X
X X
?FP
X X
X X
?FP
FP
X
X
?FPX X X
X X X
?FP
?FP
FN
FP
?FP
X X
X X
X X
X X
FP
FP
X
X
X
X
X X X X
X X X X
FN
X X X X
X X X X
X X X X
X X X X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
?FP
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
FN
?FN
FN
FP
FN
FN
FN
FN
?FN
FN
FP
FP
FP
?FP
FP
?FP
FP
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X
X X
X X
X X
TP X
?FN
TP
X
TP
FN
X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
FP
TP
X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X
X
X X X
X X X
FN
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X
X X
X X
X X
TP
X
X
X
X
X
FN
X
?FN
TP
FN
TP
X
X X X X
X X X X
X
X X X
X X X
X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
FN
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X
X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X
X
X X X
X X X
X
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Loch Leven
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Windermere (N)
Windermere (N)
Blelham Tarn
Windermere (S)
Loch Leven
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Blelham Tarn
Esthwaite
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Location
Species
dataset
Rhodomonas spp.
Rhodomonas spp.
Rhodomonas spp.
Rhodomonas spp.
Lesser sandeel
Sea trout (Sandstell)
Sea trout average catch
Sea trout (Whitesands )
European shag
Staurastrum spp.
Staurastrum spp.
Staurastrum spp.
Staurastrum spp.
Taballeria spp.
Taballeria spp.
Taballeria spp.
Taballeria spp.
Teal
Total Chlorophyll a
Total Chlorophyll a
Total Chlorophyll a
Total Chlorophyll a
Total Calanoids
Total Cyclopoids
Trachelomonas spp.
Trachelomonas spp.
Tufted duck
Woronichinia spp.
Woronichinia spp.
Woronichinia spp.
Woronichinia spp.
Zooplankton filter counts
Zooplankton filter counts
Zooplankton filter counts
Zooplankton filter counts
X
X
X
X
X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
FN
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
TP
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
TP
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
FP
FP
FP
FP
FN
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
TP
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
FN
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
FN
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X
TP X
FP
FP
X X X
X
X X X
X X X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X X
X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X X X X
?FP X X X X X
X
X X X X X
X X X
X X X X X
?FP X X X X X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
FP
?FP
FP
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X
X X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
?FP
?FP
FP
FP
?FP
FP
FP
?FN
FP
FN
FP
FN
FP
FP
?FP
?FP
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Table S5: Classification of time series depending on the EWI detection classifications present per dataset. Null
classification is when datasets do not have any EWIs (significant increases in either variance or autocorrelation) or
turning points. Numbers in brackets indicate additional datasets which contain at least one false positive or false
negative that is considered to be uncertain due to the EWI or turning point occurring within ten years of the beginning
or the end of the time series.
No. of datasets based
on variance
No. datasets based on
autocorrelation
38
48
False negative only
6 (8)
14 (8)
False positive only
26 (37)
15 (28)
True positive only
0
1
False positive & false negative
3 (6)
1 (1)
True positive and false negative
3 (4)
2 (2)
True positive and false positive
1 (1)
1 (1)
True positive, false negative & false positive
2 (1)
1 (3)
EWI detection classes present in the time series
Null
Table S6: Agreement between classifications of datasets according to the mix of EWI detection classifications (FN=
false negative; FP= false positive and TP=true positive) they contain. Datasets where the classification was the same
based on variance (rows) and autocorrelation (columns) are indicated by yellow shading. Classifications are not
included if they are uncertain.
EWI: Autocorrelation
EWI: Variance
Null
FN only
FP only
TP only
FP & FN
TP and FN
TP and FP
TP, FN &
FP
Null
23
0
6
0
0
0
0
0
FN only
0
4
0
0
0
0
1
1
FP only
8
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
TP only
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
FP & FN
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
TP and FN
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
TP and FP
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
TP, FN & FP
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
Table S7: Formal testing of associations between increases in either variance or autocorrelation and turning points in
the time series data based on a bootstrapping procedure. Significant associations are indicated in yellow.
Dataset
Arctic charr
Arctic charr
Arctic charr
Calanus finmarchicus
Calanus helgolandicus
Calanus stages I to IV
Ceratium spp.
Ceratium spp.
Location
Windemere (N)
Windermere (S)
Windemere (N)
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
Esthwaite
Windermere (S)
Type of Data
Variance
Variance
Variance
Variance
Variance
Variance
Variance
Variance
P value
0.999
0.064
0.211
0.999
0.218
0.071
0.333
0.833
Dataset
Closterium spp.
Closterium spp.
Cormorant
Cryptomonas spp.
Cryptomonas spp.
Fulmar
Greylag geese
Guillemot
Black-legged kittiwake
Asterionella spp.
Unicellular algae
Monoraphidium spp.
Paralia sulcata
Phaeoceros spp.
Nitzsch delicatissima
Rhizosol semispina
Skeleton costatum
Peridinium spp.
Pike
Pike
Pochard
Razorbill
Sea-trout (Sandstell)
Sea-trout total average catch
Sea-trout (Whitesands )
Staurastrum spp.
Zooplankton filter counts
Arctic charr
Arctic charr
Arctic charr
Calanus finmarchicus
Calanus helgolandicus
Calanus stages I to IV
Ceratium spp.
Ceratium spp.
Closterium spp.
Closterium spp.
Cormorant
Cryptomonas spp.
Cryptomonas spp.
Fulmar
Greylag geese
Guillemot
Black-legged kittiwake
Asterionella spp.
Unicellular algae
Monoraphidium spp.
Paralia sulcata
Phaeoceros spp.
Nitzsch delicatissima
Rhizosol semispina
Skeleton costatum
Peridinium spp.
Pike
Pike
Pochard
Razorbill
Sea-trout (Sandstell)
Sea-trout total average catch
Sea-trout (Whitesands )
Staurastrum spp.
Zooplankton filter counts
Location
Esthwaite
Windermere (S)
Loch Leven
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
North Sea
Loch Leven
North Sea
North Sea
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Windermere (S)
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
Windermere (S)
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Loch Leven
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
Windermere (S)
Windermere (N)
Windemere (N)
Windermere (S)
Windemere (N)
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
Esthwaite
Windermere (S)
Esthwaite
Windermere (S)
Loch Leven
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
North Sea
Loch Leven
North Sea
North Sea
Loch Leven
Loch Leven
Windermere (S)
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
Windermere (S)
Windermere (N)
Windermere (S)
Loch Leven
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
North Sea
Windermere (S)
Windermere (N)
Type of Data
Variance
Variance
Variance
Variance
Variance
Variance
Variance
Variance
Variance
Variance
Variance
Variance
Variance
Variance
Variance
Variance
Variance
Variance
Variance
Variance
Variance
Variance
Variance
Variance
Variance
Variance
Variance
Autocorrelation
Autocorrelation
Autocorrelation
Autocorrelation
Autocorrelation
Autocorrelation
Autocorrelation
Autocorrelation
Autocorrelation
Autocorrelation
Autocorrelation
Autocorrelation
Autocorrelation
Autocorrelation
Autocorrelation
Autocorrelation
Autocorrelation
Autocorrelation
Autocorrelation
Autocorrelation
Autocorrelation
Autocorrelation
Autocorrelation
Autocorrelation
Autocorrelation
Autocorrelation
Autocorrelation
Autocorrelation
Autocorrelation
Autocorrelation
Autocorrelation
Autocorrelation
Autocorrelation
Autocorrelation
Autocorrelation
P value
0.198
0.235
0.999
0.999
0.999
0.245
0.474
0.999
0.999
0.735
0.768
0.999
0.597
0.999
0.450
0.999
0.752
0.999
0.764
<0.001
0.999
0.526
0.999
0.051
0.999
0.412
0.999
0.999
0.243
0.494
0.999
0.999
0.999
0.999
0.999
0.999
0.999
0.999
0.265
0.772
0.999
0.999
0.999
0.999
0.999
0.999
0.999
0.999
0.706
0.999
0.999
0.999
0.999
0.204
0.999
0.250
0.999
0.369
0.999
0.566
0.045
0.999