Ecosystem dynamics in the Baltic Sea
in a changing climate perspective
Strong Research Environment
2010-2015
35 MSEK
25 PhD +postdocs
15 senior scientists
http://www.umf.umu.se/english/ecochange/
Research interests of the SRE ECOCHANGE
Legrand 2010
Theme 1
Effect of changes of environmental drivers
on the structure and productivity of the
microbial food web
Theme 2
Feedback on higher trophic levels and
overharvesting
Theme 3
Future changes in food web transport of
legacy and emerging POPs
Theme 4
Support for marine monitoring
Theme 5
Integrated synthesis of the research
http://www.umf.umu.se/english/ecochange/
Miljöhot- Regionala skillnader
Baltic Sea Region
Legrand, Rostock, Generation Balt, 24-09-2014
NASA
Eutrophication
Övergödning
Belastning på Östersjön
Kväve, Fosfor
Mänskliga aktiviteter
Algblomning
Syrebrist
NASA
SMHI
Contamination
Miljögifter
PCBs, POP, PAH, Dioxin
Nya kemikalier,substans, ämnen?
Future potential activities-Blue Growth BSR
EC “A sustainable Blue Growth Agenda for the BSR” 2014
Klimatförändring
Klimatförändring
Nederbörd
(www.smhi.se)
Klimatförändring
Salthalt
1999
2071-2100
Meier et al. 2006
Microphytobenthos
Production
Ask et al. AMBIO (in press)
Microphytobenthos
Production
Ask et al. AMBIO (in press)
Theme 1
Effect of changes of environmental drivers
on the structure and productivity of the
microbial food web
http://www.umf.umu.se/english/ecochange/
Theme 1
An established view is that increased input of nutrients to the sea, e g
via river flooding, will cause eutrophication and phytoplankton blooms
in the coastal areas.
Emån, Södra Östersjön
Lögde älv, Bottenhavet
Annual primary and bacterial production, total
phosphorus and humic substances in the photic zone
Autotrophy
Heterotrophy
Andersson et al. (AMBIO in press)
Factors affecting primary and bacterial production in the Råne, Öre and Emån estuaries in the
Bothnian Bay, Bothnian Sea and the southern Baltic Proper (Andersson et al. AMBIO in press)
Climate change might decrease coastal eutrophication
in the Northern basins?
Factors affecting primary and bacterial production in the Råne, Öre and Emån estuaries in the
Bothnian Bay, Bothnian Sea and the southern Baltic Proper (Andersson et al. AMBIO in press)
Theme 1
Spatial and temporal environmental monitoring 2010-2014
Kalmarsund
(2010-2012)
Emån estuary
(2011-2014)
Western Gotland basin
(2010-2012)
Linnæus Microbial Observatory
(2010-2014)
Legrand et al. submitted
Spatial and temporal dynamics from coast to offshore
Bacteria
Theme 1
Phytoplankton
Biomass
Production
Identification
Legrand et al., submitted
Theme 1
A standard view is that increased temperature (+4 C)
in the photic zone will boost summer phytoplankton (cyanos) blooms
in the Baltic proper
Spring bloom
Cyanobacteria
Legrand et al. submitted
Theme 1
A standard view is that increased temperature in the photic zone will
boost phytoplankton blooms in the Baltic proper
Salinity constrains the distribution
of cyanobacteria…
Theme 1
A standard view is that increased temperature in the photic zone will
boost phytoplankton blooms in the Baltic proper
Salinity constrains the
biomass of
cyanobacteria…
Salinity constrains the
distribution of
cyanobacteria…
Klotz, Bertos Fortis, Legrand
Theme 1
A standard view is that increased temperature in the photic zone will
boost phytoplankton blooms in the Baltic proper
Salinity scenarios
Today
2100
Salinity constrains the
distribution and
biomass of
cyanobacteria…
Standards could be challenged!
Climate-altered food webs
our hypothesis
Andersson et al. AMBIO (in press)