Soft Comput DOI 10.1007/s00500-014-1521-4 METHODOLOGIES AND APPLICATION Almost sure stability for uncertain differential equation with jumps Xiaoyu Ji · Hua Ke © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014 Abstract Uncertain differential equation with jumps, as a crucial tool to deal with a discontinuous uncertain system, is a type of differential equation driven by both canonical Liu process and uncertain renewal process. So far, a concept of stability in measure for an uncertain differential equation with jumps has been proposed. As a supplement, this paper proposes a concept of almost sure stability for an uncertain differential equation with jumps. A sufficient condition is derived for an uncertain differential equation with jumps being stable almost surely. As a corollary, a sufficient condition is also given for a linear uncertain differential equation with jumps being stable almost surely. Keywords Uncertain differential equation · Stability · Almost sure stability · Uncertainty theory 1 Introduction Stochastic differential equation driven by Wiener process was first proposed by Ito in 1940s to deal with dynamic stochastic systems. Since then, it has been widely studied and applied in many areas. For example, Kalman and Bucy (1961) proposed a method to filter the noises from observed data via stochastic differential equation, and Black and Scholes Communicated by V. Loia. X. Ji School of Business, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China e-mail: [email protected] H. Ke (B) School of Economics and Management, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China e-mail: [email protected] (1973) assumed the price of a stock followed a stochastic differential equation, and derived the famous European option pricing formulas for the stock. As a supplement of Ito’s stochastic differential equation, stochastic differential equation with jumps, which essentially is a type of differential equation driven by both Wiener process and Poisson process, also draws attention from the researchers. It is mainly used to describe a stochastic differentiable system with sudden drifts. Except for randomness, human uncertainty is another source of indeterminate information. To deal with human uncertainty, an uncertainty theory was founded by Liu (2007) and refined by Liu (2010) based on normality axiom, duality axiom, subadditivity axiom, and product axiom. A concept of uncertain variable was first defined by Liu (2007) to model a quantity under uncertainty, and a concept of uncertainty distribution was also proposed to describe an uncertain variable in practice. Peng and Iwamura (2010) gave a sufficient condition for a function being an uncertainty distribution of an uncertain variable. Yao and Ji (2014) proposed a decisionmaking method by means of uncertain variables in an uncertain environment. To describe an uncertain system evolving with time, Liu (2008) proposed a concept of uncertain process as a sequence of uncertain variables driven by the time. After that, Liu (2009) designed a canonical Liu process as a counterpart of standard Wiener process. Canonical Liu process is a type of uncertain process with stationary and independent normal increments, and almost all its sample paths are Lipschitz continuous. Besides, Liu (2009) founded an uncertain calculus with respect to a canonical Liu process, which was generalized by Liu and Yao (2012) to a case with multiple canonical Liu processes. Uncertain differential equation driven by canonical Liu process is used to describe a continuous and dynamic uncertain system with some change rules. So far, it has been widely 123 X. Ji, H. Ke applied to the financial markets. Liu (2009) assumed the stock price followed a geometric Liu process, and proposed a stock model with human uncertainty. Then, Chen (2011) derived the American option pricing formulas for Liu’s stock model. Besides, Chen and Gao (2013) studied some term structure models of interest rate, and Jiao and Yao (2014) derived the price of zero-coupon bond for a type of term structure model. In addition, Liu et al. (2014b) proposed an uncertain currency exchanging model. For the recent development of uncertain finance, interested readers may refer to Liu (2013). In theoretical aspects, Chen and Liu (2010) gave a sufficient condition for an uncertain differential equation having a unique solution, and Yao et al. (2013) gave a sufficient condition for an uncertain differential equation being stable in measure. In addition, Liu et al. (2014a) gave a sufficient condition of almost sure stability. To describe a discontinuous uncertain system, Liu (2008) proposed an uncertain renewal process, which was further studied by Yao and Li (2012) and Zhang et al. (2013). Yao (2012) founded an uncertain calculus with respect to uncertain renewal process, and proposed an uncertain differential equation with jumps, which is essentially a type of differential equation driven by both canonical Liu process and uncertain renewal process. Based on the uncertain differential equation with jumps, Yu (2012) presented an uncertain stock model with jumps. Recently, Yao (2014) solved two types of uncertain differential equations with jumps, and gave a sufficient condition for it having a unique solution. In this paper, we will propose a concept of almost sure stability for an uncertain differential equation with jumps, and give its sufficient condition. The rest of this paper is organized as follows. In Sects. 2 and 3, we will introduce uncertain variable and uncertain differential equation with jumps, respectively. In Sect. 4, we will define almost sure stability for an uncertain differential equation with jumps, and give two examples to explain the definition. Then in Sect. 5, we will give a sufficient condition for an uncertain differential equation with jumps being stable almost surely. As a corollary, a sufficient condition for a linear uncertain differential equation with jumps will also be derived. At last, some remarks are made in Sect. 6. Axiom 1: (Normality Axiom) M{} = 1 for the universal set . Axiom 2: (Duality Axiom) M{} + M{c } = 1 for any event . Axiom 3: (Subadditivity Axiom) For every countable sequence of events 1 , 2 , . . . , we have ∞ ∞ M i ≤ M {i } . i=1 i=1 Besides, the product uncertain measure on a product σ algebra L was defined by Liu (2009) as follows: Axiom 4: (Product Axiom) Let (k , Lk , Mk ) be uncertainty spaces for k = 1, 2, . . .. Then, the product uncertain measure M is an uncertain measure satisfying ∞ ∞ k = Mk {k } M k=1 k=1 where k are arbitrarily chosen events from Lk for k = 1, 2, . . ., respectively. An uncertain variable ξ is a measurable function from an uncertainty space (, L, M) to the real number set . To describe an uncertain variable in practice, a concept of uncertainty distribution was defined by Liu (2007) as (x) = M{ξ ≤ x} for any real number x. The inverse function −1 (α) is called an inverse uncertainty distribution of ξ if it exists and is unique for each α ∈ (0, 1). The expected value of an uncertain variable ξ is defined by 0 +∞ M{ξ ≥ r }dr − M{ξ ≤ r }dr E[ξ ] = provided that at least one of the two integrals is finite. For an uncertain variable ξ with a regular uncertainty distribution , Liu (2007) proved that +∞ 0 1 E[ξ ] = (1−(r ))dr − (r )dr = −1 (α)dα. In this section, we introduce some concepts about uncertain variable, including uncertainty distribution, expected value, independence, and operational law. Definition 1 (Liu 2007) Let be a universal set, and L be a σ -algebra on . A set function M : L → [0, 1] is called an uncertain measure if it satisfies the following axioms: 123 −∞ 0 0 Definition 2 (Liu 2009) The uncertain variables ξ1 , ξ2 , . . . , ξm are said to be independent if m m M (ξi ∈ Bi ) = M{ξi ∈ Bi } i=1 2 Uncertain variable −∞ 0 k=1 for any Borel sets B1 , B2 , . . . , Bm of real numbers. Theorem 1 (Operational Law, Liu 2010) Let ξ1 , ξ2 , . . . , ξn be independent uncertain variables with regular uncertainty distributions 1 , 2 , . . . , n , respectively. If the function f (x1 , x2 , . . . , xn ) is strictly increasing with respect to x1 , x2 , . . . , xm and strictly decreasing with respect to xm+1 , xm+2 , . . . , xn , then ξ = f (ξ1 , ξ2 , . . . , ξn ) Almost sure stability for uncertain differential equation is an uncertain variable with an inverse uncertainty distribution −1 −1 (α) = f (−1 1 (α),. . . ,m (α), −1 −1 m+1 (1 − α), . . . , n (1 − α)). interval [a, b] with a = t1 < t2 < · · · < tk+1 = b, the mesh is written as: = max |ti+1 − ti |. 1≤i≤k Then, the Liu integral of X t is defined by 3 Uncertain differential equation with jumps b X t dCt = lim →0 a In this section, we first introduce the uncertain calculus theory with respect to canonical Liu process and with respect to uncertain renewal process. Then, we introduce uncertain differential equation with jumps and its existence and uniqueness theorem. Definition 3 (Liu 2008) Let T be an index set, and let (, L, M) be an uncertainty space. An uncertain process is a measurable function from T × (, L, M) to the set of real numbers, i.e., for each t ∈ T and any Borel set B of real numbers, the set {X t ∈ B} = {γ | X t (γ ) ∈ B} is an event. Definition 4 (Liu 2009) An uncertain process Ct is said to be a canonical Liu process if (i) C0 = 0 and almost all sample paths are Lipschitz continuous, (ii) Ct has stationary and independent increments, (iii) every increment Cs+t −Cs is a normal uncertain variable with an uncertainty distribution −1 πx t (x) = 1 + exp − √ , x ∈ . 3t Different from Wiener process, almost all the sample paths of a canonical Liu process are Lipschitz continuous. Yao et al. (2013) regarded Lipschitz constants of the sample paths as different values that an uncertain variable may take, and proved the following theorem. Theorem 2 (Yao et al. 2013) Let Ct be a canonical Liu process on an uncertainty space (, L, M). Then, there exists an uncertain variable K such that K (γ ) is a Lipschitz constant of the sample path Ct (γ ) for each γ , and lim M{γ ∈ | K (γ ) ≤ x} = 1. x→+∞ By means of canonical Liu process, a Liu integral is defined as an uncertain counterpart of Ito integral as below. Definition 5 (Liu 2009) Let X t be an uncertain process and Ct be a canonical Liu process. For any partition of closed k X ti · (Cti+1 − Cti ) i=1 provided that the limit exists almost surely and is finite. Definition 6 (Liu 2008) Let ξ1 , ξ2 , . . . be iid positive uncertain variables. Define S0 = 0 and Sn = ξ1 + ξ2 + · · · + ξn for n ≥ 1. Then, the uncertain process Nt = max{n|Sn ≤ t} n≥0 is called an uncertain renewal process. Definition 7 (Yao 2012) Let X t be an uncertain process and Nt be an uncertain renewal process. Then, the Yao integral of X t on the interval [a, b] is defined by b X t dNt = X t− (Nt − Nt− ) a a<t≤b provided that the sum exists almost surely and is finite. Yao (2011) derived the fundamental theorem of uncertain calculus with respect to both canonical Liu process and uncertain renewal process. Definition 8 (Yao 2011) Let Ct be a canonical Liu process, Nt be an uncertain renewal process, and h(t, c, n) be a continuously differentiable function. Then, the uncertain process Z t = h(t, Ct , Nt ) can be represented by s s ∂h ∂h Zs = Z0 + (t, Ct , Nt )dt + (t, Ct , Nt )dCt ∂t 0 ∂c s0 + (h(t, Ct , Nt ) − h(t, Ct , Nt− ))dNt , 0 i.e., it has an uncertain differential dZ t = ∂h ∂h (t, Ct , Nt )dt + (t, Ct , Nt )dCt ∂t ∂c +(h(t, Ct , Nt ) − h(t, Ct , Nt− ))dNt . Definition 9 (Yao 2012) Suppose that Ct is a canonical Liu process, Nt is an uncertain renewal process, and f, g and h are some given real functions. Then dX t = f (t, X t )dt + g(t, X t )dCt + h(t, X t )dNt is called an uncertain differential equation with jumps. 123 X. Ji, H. Ke Example 1 Let Ct be a canonical Liu process, Nt be an uncertain renewal process with iid uncertain interarrival times ξ1 , ξ2 , . . . , and Ut , Vt and Rt be some real functions. Then, the uncertain differential equation with jumps dX t = Ut X t dt + Vt X t dCt + Rt X t dNt 0 Yt (γ ) = Y0 + μt + σ Ct (γ ) + ν Nt (γ ), ∀γ ∈ , respectively. Since |X t (γ ) − Yt (γ )| = |X 0 − Y0 |, ∀t ≥ 0, γ ∈ , has a solution t t Nt X t = X 0 exp Us ds + Vs dCs (1 + R Si ) 0 and we have sup |X t (γ ) − Yt (γ )| = |X 0 − Y0 |, ∀γ ∈ i=1 t≥0 where S0 = 0 and Si = ξ1 + ξ2 + · · · + ξi for i ≥ 1. Theorem 3 (Yao 2014) The uncertain differential equation with jumps and M γ ∈ sup |X t (γ ) − Yt (γ )| = 0 lim |X 0 −Y0 |→0 t≥0 = M γ ∈ dX t = f (t, X t )dt + g(t, X t )dCt + h(t, X t )dNt has a unique solution if the coefficients f (t, x) and g(t, x) satisfy the linear growth condition | f (t, x)| + |g(t, x)| ≤ L(1 + |x|), ∀x ∈ , t ≥ 0 lim |X 0 −Y0 |→0 |X 0 − Y0 | = 0 = 1. Hence the uncertain differential equation with jumps (2) is stable almost surely. Example 3 Consider a homogeneous uncertain differential equation with jumps and the Lipschitz condition | f (t, x) − f (t, y)| + |g(t, x) − g(t, y)| ≤ L|x − y|, ∀x, y ∈ , t ≥ 0 dX t = μX t dt + σ X t dCt + ν X t dNt for a constant L, and the coefficient h(t, x) is a real-valued function. (3) where μ, σ, ν are positive real numbers. Note that its solutions with different initial values X 0 and Y0 are X t (γ ) = X 0 · exp(μt + σ Ct (γ )) · (1 + ν) Nt (γ ) , ∀γ ∈ 4 Almost sure stability and In this section, we propose a concept of almost sure stability for an uncertain differential equation with jumps, and give two examples to explain the definition. Definition 10 Let X t and Yt be two solutions of the uncertain differential equation with jumps dX t = f (t, X t )dt + g(t, X t )dCt + h(t, X t )dNt (1) with different initial values X 0 and Y0 , respectively. Then the uncertain differential equation (1) is said to be stable almost surely if M γ ∈ lim sup |X t (γ ) − Yt (γ )| = 0 = 1. |X 0 −Y0 |→0 t≥0 Example 2 Consider a linear uncertain differential equation with jumps dX t = μdt + σ dCt + νdNt . (2) Note that its solutions with different initial values X 0 and Y0 are X t (γ ) = X 0 + μt + σ Ct (γ ) + ν Nt (γ ), ∀γ ∈ 123 Yt (γ ) = Y0 · exp(μt + σ Ct (γ )) · (1 + ν) Nt (γ ) , ∀γ ∈ , respectively. Since |X t (γ ) − Yt (γ )| = |X 0 − Y0 | · exp(μt + σ Ct (γ )) ·(1 + ν) Nt (γ ) → ∞ as t → ∞ for each sample γ with Ct (γ ) > 0, we have M γ ∈ lim sup |X t (γ ) − Yt (γ )| = 0 < 1. |X 0 −Y0 |→0 t≥0 Hence the uncertain differential equation with jumps (3) is not stable almost surely. 5 Sufficient condition In this section, we give a sufficient condition for an uncertain differential equation with jumps being stable almost surely. As a corollary, we also give a sufficient condition for a linear uncertain differential equation with jumps being stable almost surely. Almost sure stability for uncertain differential equation Theorem 4 The uncertain differential equation with jumps dX t = f (t, X t )dt + g(t, X t )dCt + h(t, X t )dNt + t L 2 (s)|X s (γ ) − Ys (γ )|dNs (γ ). 0 (4) is stable almost surely if the coefficients f (t, x) and g(t, x) satisfy Let ξ1 , ξ2 , . . . denote the iid positive uncertain interarrival times of Nt . Write S0 = 0 and Si = ξ1 + ξ2 + · · · + ξi for i ≥ 1. Then, according to the Grownwall inequality, we have | f (t, x) − f (t, y)| + |g(t, x) − g(t, y)| ≤ L 1 (t)|x − y|, |X t (γ ) − Yt (γ )| ∀x, y ∈ , t ≥ 0 for some integrable function L 1 (t) on [0, +∞), and the coefficient h(t, x) satisfies |h(t, x) − h(t, y)| ≤ L 2 (t)|x − y|, ∀x, y ∈ , t ≥ 0 for some monotone and integrable function L 2 (t) on [0, +∞). ≤ |X 0 −Y0 |·exp (1+ K (γ )) t N t (γ ) L 1 (s)ds · (1+ L 2 (Si (γ ))) 0 ≤ |X 0 −Y0 |·exp (1+ K (γ )) i=1 +∞ ∞ L 1 (s)ds · (1+ L 2 (Si (γ ))) 0 ≤ |X 0 −Y0 |·exp (1+ K (γ )) +∞ i=1 L 1 (s)ds ·exp ∞ 0 Proof Let X t be a solution of the uncertain differential equation with jumps (4) with an initial value X 0 , and Yt be a solution with an initial value Y0 , i.e., t t X t (γ ) = X 0 + f (s, X s (γ ))ds + g(s, X s (γ ))dCs (γ ) 0 0 t + h(s, X s (γ ))dNs (γ ), ∀γ ∈ , 0 t t Yt (γ ) = Y0 + f (s, Ys (γ ))ds + g(s, Ys (γ ))dCs (γ ) 0 0 t + h(s, Ys (γ ))dNs (γ ), ∀γ ∈ . sup |X t (γ ) − Yt (γ )| ≤ |X 0 − Y0 | t≥0 +∞ · exp (1+ K (γ )) We first consider exp (1 + K (γ )) +∞ L 2 (Si (γ )) . i=1 L 1 (s)ds . 0 |X t (γ ) − Yt (γ )| Since +∞ 0 L 1 (s)ds · exp ∞ (5) By Theorem 2, we have t 0 Assume K (γ ) is a Lipschitz constant of the sample path Ct (γ ). Then, we have | f (s, X s (γ )) − f (s, Ys (γ ))|ds ≤ |X 0 − Y0 | + 0 t + |g(s, X s (γ ))−g(s, Ys (γ ))|·|dCs (γ )| 0 t + |h(s, X s (γ ))−h(s, Ys (γ ))|dNs (γ ) 0 t ≤ |X 0 − Y0 | + L 1 (s)|X s (γ ) − Ys (γ )|ds 0 t + L 1 (s)|X s (γ ) − Ys (γ )| · |dCs (γ )| 0 t + L 2 (s)|X s (γ ) − Ys (γ )|dNs (γ ) 0 t ≤ |X 0 − Y0 | + L 1 (s)|X s (γ ) − Ys (γ )|ds 0 t + K (γ ) L 1 (s)|X s (γ ) − Ys (γ )|ds 0 t + L 2 (s)|X s (γ ) − Ys (γ )|dNs (γ ) 0 t = |X 0 − Y0 | + (1 + K (γ )) L 1 (s)|X s (γ ) − Ys (γ )|ds L 2 (Si (γ )) i=1 for all t ≥ 0. Thus 0 M{γ ∈ | K (γ ) < +∞} = 1. L 1 (s)ds < +∞, 0 we have M γ ∈ exp (1+ K (γ )) +∞ L 1 (s)ds < +∞ = 1. 0 (6) Now, we consider ∞ exp L 2 (Si (γ )) . i=1 Since ∞ L 2 (Si (γ ))· inf ξ j (γ ) ≤ j≥1 i=1 ≤ ∞ L 2 (Si (γ ))·ξi+1 (γ ) i=1 +∞ L 2 (s)ds, 0 we have ∞ i=1 L 2 (Si (γ )) ≤ 1 inf ξ j (γ ) j≥1 +∞ L 2 (s)ds. 0 123 X. Ji, H. Ke Noting that M γ ∈ inf ξ j (γ ) > 0 = 1 we take L 1 (t) = |μ1t | + |σ1t | which is integrable on + . Since j≥1 and +∞ |h(t, x) − h(t, y)| = |ν1t ||x − y|, L 2 (s) < +∞, we take 0 L 2 (t) = |ν2t | we have ∞ L 2 (Si (γ )) < +∞ = 1. M γ ∈ exp (7) i=1 By Eqs. (5), (6), and (7), we have M γ ∈ lim sup |X t (γ ) − Yt (γ )| = 0 = 1, 6 Conclusions |X 0 −Y0 |→0 t≥0 and the uncertain differential equation with jumps (4) is stable almost surely according to Definition 10. This completes the proof. Example 4 Consider an uncertain differential equation with jumps dX t = t 2 dt + exp(−t 2 − X t2 )dCt + exp(−t)X t dNt . which is monotone and integrable on + . By Theorem 4, the uncertain differential equation with jumps (9) is stable almost surely. (8) Since f (t, x) = t 2 and g(t, x) = exp(−t 2 − x 2 ) satisfy | f (t, x) − f (t, y)| + |g(t, x) − g(t, y)| ≤ exp(−t 2 )|x − y| with respect to an integrable function exp(−t 2 ) on + for all x, y ∈ , and h(t, x) = exp(−t)x satisfies |h(t, x)−h(t, y)| = | exp(−t)x − exp(−t)y| Uncertain differential equation with jumps is a type of differential equation driven by both canonical Liu process and uncertain renewal process. This paper proposed a concept of almost sure stability for an uncertain differential equation with jumps. A sufficient condition for an uncertain differential equation with jumps being stable almost surely was derived. As a corollary, a sufficient condition for a linear uncertain differential equation with jumps being stable almost surely was also obtained. In addition, these sufficient conditions were illustrated by some examples. Further researches may cover the applications of uncertain differential equation with jumps in the area of finance and optimal control. Acknowledgments This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 71171191, Grant No. 71371141, and Grant No. 71001080). = exp(−t)|x − y| with respect to a monotone and integrable function exp(−t) on + for all x, y ∈ , the uncertain differential equation with jumps (8) is stable almost surely. Corollary 1 The linear uncertain differential equation with jumps dX t = (μ1t X t + μ2t )dt + (σ1t X t + σ2t )dCt +(ν1t X t + ν2t )dNt (9) is stable almost surely if |ν1t | is monotone, and +∞ +∞ +∞ |μ1t |dt + |σ1t |dt + |ν1t |dt < +∞. 0 0 0 Proof Note that for the linear uncertain differential equation with jumps (9), we have f (t, x) = μ1t x + μ2t , g(t, x) = σ1t x + σ2t , and h(t, x) = ν1t x + ν2t . Since | f (t, x) − f (t, y)| + |g(t, x) − g(t, y)| = |μ1t ||x − y| + |σ1t ||x − y| = (|μ1t | + |σ1t |)|x − y|, 123 References Black F, Scholes M (1973) The pricing of options and corporate liabilities. 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