Plant Science 226 (2014) 41–48 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Plant Science journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/plantsci Stomatal and mesophyll conductances to CO2 in different plant groups: Underrated factors for predicting leaf photosynthesis responses to climate change? Jaume Flexas a,∗,1 , Marc Carriquí a , Rafael E. Coopman b , Jorge Gago c , Jeroni Galmés a , Sebastià Martorell a , Fermín Morales d , Antonio Diaz-Espejo e,1 a Research Group on Plant Biology under Mediterranean Conditions, Departament de Biologia, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Carretera de Valldemossa Km 7.5, 07122 Palma de Mallorca, Illes Balears, Spain b Laboratorio de Ecofisiología para la Conservación de Bosques, Instituto de Conservación, Biodiversidad y Territorio, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y Recursos Naturales, Universidad Austral de Chile, Casilla 567, Valdivia, Chile c Applied Plant and Soil Biology, Faculty of Biology, University of Vigo, 36310 Vigo, Spain d Estación Experimental de Aula Dei (EEAD), CSIC, Dpto. Nutrición Vegetal, Apdo. 13034, E-50080 Zaragoza, Spain e Irrigation and Crop Ecophysiology Group, Instituto de Recursos Naturales y Agrobiología de Sevilla (IRNAS, CSIC), Avenida Reina Mercedes 10, 41012 Sevilla, Spain a r t i c l e i n f o Article history: Available online 20 June 2014 Keywords: Climatic change Angiosperms Photosynthesis Mesophyll conductance Ferns Diffusive limitations a b s t r a c t The climate change conditions predicted for the end of the current century are expected to have an impact on the performance of plants under natural conditions. The variables which are foreseen to have a larger effect are increased CO2 concentration and temperature. Although it is generally considered CO2 assimilation rate could be increased by the increasing levels of CO2 , it has been reported in previous studies that acclimation to high CO2 results in reductions of physiological parameters involved in photosynthesis, like the maximum carboxylation rate (Vc,max ), stomatal conductance (gs ) and mesophyll conductance to CO2 (gm ). On the one hand, most of the previous modeling efforts have neglected the potential role played by the acclimation of gm to high CO2 and temperature. On the other hand, the effect of climate change on plant clades other than angiosperms, like ferns, has received little attention, and there are no studies evaluating the potential impact of increasing CO2 and temperature on these species. In this study we predicted responses of several representative species among angiosperms, gymnosperms and ferns to increasing CO2 and temperature. Our results show that species with lower photosynthetic capacity – such as some ferns and gymnosperms – would be proportionally more favored under these foreseen environmental conditions. The main reason for this difference is the lower diffusion limitation imposed by gs and gm in plants having high capacity for photosynthesis among the angiosperms, which reduces the positive effect of increasing CO2 . However, this apparent advantage of low-diffusion species would be canceled if the two conductances – gs and gm – acclimate and are down regulated to high CO2 , which is basically unknown, especially for gymnosperms and ferns. Hence, for a better understanding of different plant responses to future climate, studies are urged in which the actual photosynthetic response/acclimation to increased CO2 and temperature of ferns, gymnosperms and other under-evaluated plant groups is assessed. © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction Climate change includes environmental factors that are crucial for plant photosynthesis: increased air temperature and CO2 ∗ Corresponding author. Tel.: +34 971 172365; fax: +34 971 173184. E-mail address: jaume.fl[email protected] (J. Flexas). 1 These two authors contributed equally to the present work. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.plantsci.2014.06.011 0168-9452/© 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved. concentration. Global air temperature has, on average, increased by 1–2 ◦ C over the past decades and it is expected to increase not more than another 2–3 ◦ C by 2100 [1,2], CO2 concentration is exponentially increasing, having changed from preindustrial levels of 270 mol mol−1 to about 400 mol mol−1 nowadays, and is expected to reach 700 mol mol−1 by the end of the century [3]. Over the last approximately 30 years, evidence has been obtained on the effects of increased temperature and/or increased atmospheric CO2 on plant photosynthesis, from experiments in 42 J. Flexas et al. / Plant Science 226 (2014) 41–48 controlled growth chambers, free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) and other facilities [3–7]. As a result of these observations it has been concluded that, in a predicted scenario for the end of this century: (1) while respiration and photorespiration could increase as a consequence of rising temperature, net CO2 assimilation will largely increase as a consequence of increased CO2 concentration; and (2) the expected increase in photosynthesis may be attenuated by down-regulation of photosynthetic capacity and/or acclimation of stomatal conductance (gs ). Down-regulation of photosynthesis is related to reduced nitrogen and Rubisco contents in leaves, and results on average in a 10–15% reduction of the maximum velocity of carboxylation (Vc,max ), while the maximum capacity for electron transport (Jmax ) is often much less affected [6]. However, the extent of such down-regulation is variable, depending on plant types, on soil nitrogen availability and plant carbon sink capacity, among other factors [6,8]. On the other hand, gs also tends to acclimate to high CO2 , being reduced on average by 12% [9] to 20% [6], with no differences between C3 and C4 plants, but depending on interactions between high CO2 , ozone, nitrogen and drought, among others [6]. Part of these decreases in gs is due to a ‘physiological’ down-regulation, i.e. the maintenance of more closed stomata, while part is due to a ‘morphological’ acclimation, i.e. a reduction of the number of stomata or stomatal density [10,11]. Together, increased photosynthesis and decreased stomatal conductance results in increased instantaneous water use efficiency under high CO2 [3,4,7,12]. However, the above conclusions come essentially from studies performed in crop species or forest trees, i.e. they are all based on few species, mostly within the angiosperms, and a few within gymnosperms. In contrast, species from different phylogenetic clades could potentially present different responses. For instance, it has been highlighted recently that, in the short term, ferns do not show stomatal conductance responses to changes in CO2 , while conifers may respond to low but not high CO2 [11,13,14]. However, other authors have shown CO2 -responsiveness in the stomata of the lycophyte Selaginella uncinata [15] and the moss Physcomitrella patens [16]. On the other hand, the fern Osmunda regalis, although not showing a ‘physiological’ response of gs to CO2 , shows a 30% reduction of gs when growing at 1500 mol CO2 mol−1 air, which is partly associated with reduced stomatal density [11]. Also we have recently observed a 23% long-term decrease of gs in another fern, N. exaltata, growing at 850 mol CO2 mol−1 air (Flexas and Morales, unpublished results). Similar long-term down-regulation of gs under high CO2 has been observed in other species not showing the short-term or ‘physiological’ response, like some conifers and the primitive Gymnosperm Gingko biloba, but also in Angiosperm species which also display the short-term response [11]. In contrast, in FACE experiments in soybean little acclimation of gs was observed [17]. Therefore, it is likely that different species show different degrees of acclimation of gs to high atmospheric CO2 , from no to large decreases. This would imply a significant variability among species in the response of photosynthesis and water use efficiency to climate change, which could result in differences in species fitness. In addition, stomatal closure with rising CO2 may not only affect photosynthesis by increasing diffusional limitations, but it also may result in increased leaf temperature via its effects on leaf energy balance [18]. Besides possible variability in the response of gs to high CO2 , the so-called mesophyll conductance to CO2 (gm ) is an equally important determinant of CO2 diffusion and photosynthesis, whose potential responses to climate change conditions have been mostly neglected up to now [19]. Many studies have shown that gm tends to increase with increasing measuring temperature [20–26], although acclimation may also occur [22,23,27,28]. As for high CO2 , gm has been shown to decrease in the short term in many species [29–35], including ferns [14], although there may be some exception [36]. In contrast, long-term acclimation of gm to growth at high CO2 has been evaluated only in a few species [17,34,37,38]. These studies have also revealed large variability among species, from no acclimation in aspen [37] or soybean [17] to more than 50% decreases in cucumber [37], Platanus orientalis [34] or grapevine [38]. In sweetgum, an increase of gm was reported at high CO2 [37]. Recently we have observed an 11% reduction in the fern Nephrolepsis exaltata (Flexas and Morales, unpublished results). Therefore, it appears that not only the response of gs to CO2 may be more variable than often considered, but also how gm will be affected with growth of plants at high CO2 is uncertain, and the coordination of the two conductances may exert a strong constraint on the degree of high temperature and CO2 -induced increase of photosynthesis. Moreover, it has recently been shown that at least part of the observed apparent decreases of gm at high CO2 can be a mathematical artifact [39,40] which, overall, increases the uncertainty as to what will be the ‘true’ response of gm to climate change. Therefore, studies are needed with non-model species belonging to different phylogenetic plant groups under climate-simulated conditions, in order to gain insights on possible differences among species in response to climate change. Meanwhile, the aims of the present study are: (1) to analyze how decreases of gs and/or gm in response to climate change could dampen the potential increases of photosynthesis under high CO2 ; and (2) to compare the potential response of some previously photosynthetically-characterized species having a range in CO2 conductance values, i.e. ferns, gymnosperms and angiosperms (including crops and evergreen and deciduous trees). 2. Materials and methods 2.1. Simulation of photosynthesis under current conditions According to the biochemical model of leaf photosynthesis by Farquhar et al. [41], the net assimilation rate (AN ) is determined by the minimum of the RuBP-saturated (Ac ) and RuBP-limited (Aj ) CO2 assimilation rates: AN = min (Ac , Aj ), − ∗) (1) Ac = Vc,max (Cc − Rd , Cc + Kc (1 + Oi /Ko ) (2) Aj = (Cc − ∗ ) J/4 − Rd Cc + 2 ∗ (3) where Vc,max is the maximal carboxylation rate, Cc is the CO2 concentration at the site of carboxylation in the chloroplast stroma, Kc is the Michaelis–Menten constant for CO2 and Ko is that for O2 , * is the CO2 compensation point in the absence of mitochondrial respiration, J is the CO2 -saturated electron transport rate of the thylakoid reactions which ultimately supply the necessary energy in the form of ATP and NADPH for the regeneration of RuBP, and Rd is the mitochondrial respiration rate in the light. We use Aj under saturating light conditions (1600 mol m−2 s−1 ) and therefore the value of maximum J (Jmax ) was used in all our simulations. Values for * , Kc , Ko at 25 ◦ C were obtained from Bernacchi et al. [20]. These values, which depend on the characteristics of Rubisco, were assumed to be identical among the species simulated in this study according to our recent results showing that at least the specificity factor is similar in ferns as in angiosperms [14]. The values for Vc,max and Jmax at 20–30 ◦ C were obtained directly from published studies and are summarized in Supplemental Table 1. Since Rd was not reported in all studies, it was assumed in all cases to be 0.5 mol CO2 m−2 s−1 . While it could be more correct to retrieve a different Rd for each species based on, e.g. previously published AN –Rd or Vc,max –Rd relationships, a previous sensitivity analysis of the model revealed that J. Flexas et al. / Plant Science 226 (2014) 41–48 43 Table 1 Simulations of CO2 assimilation rate (AN ) performed with equation (1) considering the photosynthetic and diffusional parameters reported for each species in Table S1. AN control simulates AN under current conditions, Scenario 0: only air temperature is increased by 4 ◦ C; Scenario 1: scenario 0 plus an increase of ambient CO2 to 700 mol mol−1 , Scenario 2: scenario 1 plus a decrease in gs by 20%; Scenario 3: scenario 1 plus a decrease in gm by 35%; Scenario 4: scenario 1 plus gs and gm acclimation; Scenario 5: scenario 4 plus reduction of Vcmax and Jmax by 15% and 5% respectively. Simulations of scenarios are expressed both as absolute rates and as % of increase of AN with respect to control rates. Species Tleaf ◦ C AN control mol m−2 s−1 Scenario 0 mol m−2 s−1 (%) Scenario 1 mol m−2 s−1 (%) Scenario 2 mol m−2 s−1 (%) Scenario 3 mol m−2 s−1 (%) Scenario 4 mol m−2 s−1 (%) Scenario 5 mol m−2 s−1 (%) Angiosperms Arabidopsis thaliana 25 12.6 Carya cathayensis 28 10.6 Cistus albidus 28 21.6 Eucalytus globulus 25 11.3 Fagus sylvatica 25.8 Junglans nigraxregia 25 14.0 Nicotiana tabacum 25 16.2 Olea europaea 25 19.8 Oryza sativa 30 18.0 Quercus canariensis 20 12.4 Quercus ilex 28 10.9 Quercus ilex 25 10.4 Vitis vinifera 25 14.2 12.7 (0.5) 10.0 (-4.7) 22.0 (1.8) 11.5 (2.1) 8.9 (-3.8) 15.0 (7.4) 16.5 (1.8) 20.8 (5.1) 17.0 (-5.3) 12.0 (-2.5) 10.0 (-7.4) 10.0 (-3.5) 14.3 (0.7) 18.4 (46.0) 18.0 (70.4) 31.2 (44.6) 16.3 (44.9) 14.9 (60.5) 20.1 (44.1) 25.5 (57.4) 28.5 (44.0) 27.9 (55.1) 21.1 (70.4) 17.3 (70.4) 17.7 (71.0) 23.4 (64.8) 17.9 (42.0) 16.6 (57.6) 30.2 (40.3) 15.9 (41.5) 14.0 (50.3) 19.7 (40.9) 23.8 (46.9) 27.7 (39.9) 21.1 (17.3) 18.8 (52.3) 15.8 (45.6) 16.1 (55.2) 21.4 (50.7) 17.8 (41.7) 16.4 (55.4) 29.8 (38.0) 15.8 (40.7) 13.8 (49.0) 19.5 (39.5) 24.1 (48.7) 27.7 (39.9) 26.5 (47.4) 19.7 (59.6) 15.1 (39.1) 16.3 (57.1) 21.6 (52.1) 17.3 (37.4) 15.2 (44.4) 28.8 (33.5) 15.4 (37.2) 12.9 (39.3) 19.0 (36.2) 22.5 (38.8) 27 (36.4) 25.6 (42.7) 17.7 (43.3) 13.9 (27.8) 14.7 (41.6) 19.8 (39.4) 16.7 (32.7) 14.1 (34.2) 28.1 (30.3) 14.9 (32.1) 12.47 (34.0) 18.3 (31.5) 22 (35.8) 26 (31.3) 23.9 (32.9) 16.7 (35.3) 13.7 (26.5) 14.0 (35.4) 19.5 (37.3) Gymnosperms Abies pinsapo 25 12.2 Pinus densiflora telmateia 25.8 13.8 Pinus radiata exaltata 20 8.2 12.0 (-1.0) 15.0 (8.9) 9.3 (13.6) 20.9 (71.4) 19.2 (39.5) 11.9 (45.4) 18.4 (51.3) 18.9 (37.6) 11.7 (42.6) 19.1 (57.1) 18.8 (36.7) 11.7 (42.6) 17.0 (39.6) 18.5 (34.7) 11.5 (39.7) 16.9 (38.4) 17.8 (29.4) 11.0 (33.9) Pteridophytes Adiantum capillus-veneris 25 5.1 Asplenium scolopendrium 25 3.2 Blechnum gibbum 25 4.2 Equisetum telmateia 25 11.4 Osmunda regalis 25 6.8 Pteridium aquilinum 25 8.9 5.1 (0) 3.2 (0) 4.3 (2.3) 12.2 (7.0) 7.1 (4.4) 8.9 (0) 8.9 (74.5) 5.6 (75) 7 (66.6) 16.8 (47.3) 11 (61.7) 15.1 (69.6) 8.2 (60.7) 5 (56.2) 6.4 (52.3) 16.2 (42.1) 10.3 (51.4) 13.8 (55.0) 7.3 (43.1) 5 (56.2) 6.5 (54.7) 16.4 (43.8) 10.2 (50) 13.3 (49.4) 6.8 (33.3) 4.5 (40.6) 5.9 (40.4) 15.8 (38.6) 9.6 (41.1) 12.2 (37.0) 6.7 (31.3) 4.4 (37.5) 5.8 (37.5) 15.3 (31.9) 9.3 (35.2) 12.1 (35.9) 9.3 changing this parameter within a physiological range does not significantly affect the obtained results. The use of Eqs. (1)–(3) requires the estimation of Cc , which is a function of ambient CO2 (Ca ), AN , gs and gm . The values of gs and gm were also directly obtained from the same published data sets as Vcmax and Jmax (Supplemental Table 1). Then, we ended up with two unknowns, AN and Cc , and two Eqs. (2) or (3) for AN and Fick’ law for Cc : Cc = Ca − AN AN − gs gm (4) The resultant quadratic equations for Rubisco-limited photosynthesis Eq. (2) and for electron transport limited photosynthesis Eq. (3) were solved according to von Caemmerer and Evans [42] and Ethier and Livingston [43]. 2.2. Simulation of photosynthesis under future conditions First, a theoretical simulation of the response of AN to progressively increasing atmospheric CO2 and temperature in two hypothetical species with high and low conductances (gs and gm ) and with or without acclimation of such conductances was performed (see Section 3, Figs. 1 and 2). To do this we considered that Vcmax and Jmax were unchanged at different CO2 concentrations, while for the response of gs and gm we extracted published responses averaged for several species from Franks et al. [7] and Flexas et al. [23], respectively (Supplemental Fig. 1). The responses of Vc,max , Jmax and gm to temperature were from Bernacchi et al. [20]. Subsequently, the response of photosynthesis to increasing ambient CO2 up to 700 mol mol−1 and temperature to +4 ◦ C above the original measuring temperature for each species was also calculated for some selected species in which photosynthetic characteristics were previously determined at ambient CO2 (Supplemental Tables 1 and 2). Basically, we selected all the studies 44 J. Flexas et al. / Plant Science 226 (2014) 41–48 Fig. 1. Relationship between calculated and reported CO2 assimilation rate (AN ) for all the angiosperm, gymnosperm and fern species of this study. The photosynthetic and diffusional parameters reported for each species and used in the simulations are summarized in Table S1. and species available in the literature for which gs , gm , Vc,max and Jmax were characterized, with some restrictions: (1) data obtained using the so-called curve-fitting methods were excluded, as these methods are somewhat uncertain due to over-parameterization, for which a similar AN can be obtained by varying gm , Vc,max or both; (2) only studies with a reliable gm value obtained using either isotope- or fluorescence-based methods were then chosen; and (3) only studies in which Vc,max and Jmax were analyzed on a Cc – not Ci – basis were selected. The values chosen were in all cases for control plants in the absence of any stress, for which the obtained values can be considered representative of the optimum for each species, although we acknowledge that these variables change dynamically with plant age, growing conditions, etc. The simulation for the chosen species was repeated assuming different scenarios depending on differences in the possible acclimation of the four most influencing parameters – gs , gm , Vcmax and Jmax – as follows (see Section 3, Figs. 1 and 2): Scenario 0: only temperature, not CO2 , is increased to +4 ◦ C above the original measuring temperature Scenario 1: both temperature and CO2 are increased, the latter to 700 mol mol−1 , but there is no acclimation of Vc,max , Jmax , gs or gm Scenario 2: like scenario 1 but with an acclimation of gs only Scenario 3: like scenario 1 but with an acclimation of gm only Scenario 4: like scenario 1 but with an acclimation of both gs and gm Scenario 5: like scenario 1 but with an acclimation of all parameters, gs , gm , Vc,max and Jmax When a given parameter was considered acclimated in a given scenario, the assumed percentages of change were a reduction of 20% for gs , 15% for Vcmax and 5% for Jmax These percentages were obtained as means for different species from experiments performed under conditions simulating these foreseen climatic variables, mostly from FACE experiments, and summarized in Ainsworth and Long [6]. As for gm , its reduction was taken as 35%, which is the average of previously reported values for several species (summarized in Supplementary Table 3). We have to highlight that this assumption is merely hypothetical, as it is not possible with current analytical tools to discern whether the reported decreases of gm at high CO2 are totally or partially real or mere mathematical artifacts due to the equations used [39,40]. The response to temperature of Rubisco kinetic parameters of the species included in the present study was assumed to present the same temperature dependency as that for Rubisco from Nicotiana Fig. 2. Simulations used to evaluate the effect of increasing CO2 on the net CO2 assimilation rate (AN ) considering changes in diffusional parameters – stomatal conductance (gs ) or CO2 mesophyll conductance (gm ) – and photosynthetic capacity – defined by the maximum carboxylation rate (Vc,max ) and the maximum potential electron transport rate (Jmax ). (A) Vc,max and Jmax = 150 mol m−2 s−1 , gs and gm = 0.5 mol m−2 s−1 ; (B) gs and gm were reduced to 0.1 mol m−2 s−1 ; (C) as in (B) plus a reduction in Vc,max and Jmax to 50 mol m−2 s−1 . The values for temperature in this theoretical cases was assumed to be 25 ◦ C. The short-term responses of gs and gm shown in Supplemental Fig. 2 were used for this simulation. Horizontal arrows indicate the direction of change due to differences in ambient CO2 , and vertical arrows the direction of change due to increasing diffusional limitations. tabacum, and that the equations hold for the small range of temperatures from 25 ◦ C to 29 ◦ C considered in the present study [20]. 3. Results and discussion Photosynthesis models are often applied assuming identical Rubisco kinetic properties among different plant species, being nowadays the most used as described by Bernacchi et al. [20]. Here we have used the same kinetics, and also we have fixed a constant value for leaf respiration in the light. It may be argued that this is not correct when trying to compare the response of different species showing large differences in photosynthetic capacity, J. Flexas et al. / Plant Science 226 (2014) 41–48 and indeed we show in a companion paper [44] that differences in Rubisco kinetics may be important in determining the actual rates of photosynthesis and their response to climate change. On the other hand, although inter-specific differences in Rubisco kinetics have been described, among C3 plants these are relatively minor (although significant and perhaps important) [45–48], and ferns present similar Rubiscos to other C3 species [14]. In order to validate whether reasonable results are obtained with the two main assumptions – i.e. that all species share Rubisco kinetics as those in [20], and all show a respiration rate in the light of 0.5 mol m−2 s−1 – we ran the calculation for the normal conditions at which the plants were measured (i.e. typically saturating light, 20–30 ◦ C, 400 mol CO2 mol−1 air) and compared the obtained calculated net CO2 assimilation (AN ) with the actual AN measured in the original studies (Fig. 1). For most of the species the calculated AN was close to the measured value, although for some there was a large disagreement. As a selection criteria, we excluded all the species for which the difference between calculated and measured AN was larger than 20% (Supplemental Table 2). Applying this selection criterion, 21 species (12 angiosperms – one of them, Quercus ilex, from two different sources – 3 gymnosperms and 6 ferns) were kept in the study, while another 9 species (6 angiosperms, 2 gymnosperms and 1 fern) were discarded. The reasons for large discrepancies can be multiple, from errors in the original published data to inadequateness of the parameters assumed in the model for some particular species (e.g. the fixed respiration value chosen, the common Rubisco kinetics, etc.). After filtering there was still some dispersion, especially for species with large photosynthesis rates, but overall a very good correlation (r = 0.98) lying close to the 1:1 relationship was obtained between calculated and measured AN (Fig. 1). Despite the good agreement between calculated and measured AN in the selected species, to further validate the assumptions of our simulations we performed a sensitivity analysis on the differences of Rubisco kinetics parameters for two species, one pteridophyte (Equisetum) and one angiosperm (Oryza) for which Rubisco kinetics were available from the literature. Reported values for Equisetum of Kc = 503 mol mol−1 [49], Ko = 367 mmol mol−1 [49] and * = 43.8 mol mol−1 [50], and for Oryza of Kc = 253 mol mol−1 [51], Ko = 349 mmol mol−1 [51] and * = 46.4 mol mol−1 [52], were used to simulate AN compared to those obtained by using standard values for tobacco published by Bernacchi et al. [20]. Our results show that in the case of Equisetum AN was overestimated by 5%, meanwhile in Oryza by 7%. In view of these two independent comparisons, we consider that the model used (with its simplifications and despite its limitations), overall predicts reasonably well the photosynthetic rates. Thus, it seemed useful to compare relative changes in these rates in different scenarios. Using this system, we can first compare the response to increasing CO2 of two different simulations, one with high and one with low diffusional conductances, both with identical Rubisco (Fig. 2). The values for temperature in this theoretical cases was assumed to be 25 ◦ C. In a leaf with Vc,max and Jmax = 150 mol m−2 s−1 , and gs and gm = 0.5 mol m−2 s−1 , large increases of AN from 100 to 400 mol CO2 mol−1 air are predicted, and more modest increases thereafter. At 700 mol CO2 mol−1 air, AN may increase by 19.7% in this case in the absence of any acclimation (Fig. 2A, dotted line). With this large leaf conductance, gradual acclimation resulting in a decrease of gs (Fig. 2A, solid line) or both gs and gm (Fig. 2A, dashed line) in response to increased CO2 has only a marginal effect on AN , decreasing the expected benefit at 700 mol CO2 mol−1 air by 3.6%, so that the final increase may be only 16.1%. In contrast, in a leaf with the same Vc,max and Jmax , but much lower conductances (gs and gm = 0.1 mol m−2 s−1 ), the much larger increases of AN are predicted in the absence of acclimation, consisting of a 61.5% increase at 700 mol CO2 mol−1 air and photosynthesis rates almost as large 45 as those in the high conductance leaf at 1500 mol CO2 mol−1 air (Fig. 2B, dotted line). However, the effect of gs or both gs and gm acclimation in this leaf is much larger, so that an acclimation of both imposes a penalty of up to 42.7% on the expected increases at 700 mol CO2 mol−1 air, the final result being an increase of just 18.8%, i.e. only marginally higher than that of the high conductance plant. However, it is unlikely that two species with large differences in conductances have similar Vc,max and Jmax , as in nature a common co-variation of these parameters is observed [14,31,53–55]. Hence, we repeated the simulation for the low conductance species, but assuming much lower Vc,max and Jmax = 50 mol m−2 s−1 (Fig. 2C). Although the expected increases in absolute rates became more modest (Fig. 2C, dotted line), the relative effect of acclimation of conductances was also smaller, so that the resulting expected increase in AN at 700 mol CO2 mol−1 air was only 19.2%. On the other hand, the photosynthetic enhancement at high CO2 , as well as its partial cancelation by acclimation, is more evident at high than at low temperatures (Fig. 3). From this theoretical simulation we can learn that: (1) in the absence of conductance acclimation, the relative increase in photosynthesis at high CO2 is much larger in species with lower, than in species with higher, conductances, as already reported by [56]; (2) such an increase may be reduced if the species has lower rates, or downregulates photosynthetic capacity (Vc,max and Jmax ); (3) the reduction in the potential benefit of high CO2 on AN will be approximately doubled, if in addition to acclimation of gs (as expected), there is also down regulation of gm under high CO2 . (4) acclimation of gs and gm has a higher impact in low conductance species regardless of their biochemistry, resulting in an overall percentage increase of AN at high CO2 which is only marginally higher than that shown by high conductance species; and (5) both the benefits in the absence of acclimation and the partial cancelation of such benefits by acclimation are more evident as temperatures increase, for which differences among species are expected to be larger in high-temperature climates. To check for potential effects of conductance(s) acclimation in different species, a survey was made of photosynthetic parameters in previously characterized plants (Supplementary Table 1). A few simplifications were made to obtain a number of simulated scenarios for a future climatic condition of +4 ◦ C (above the temperature originally used in each study, and summarized in Supplementary Table 1) and 700 mol CO2 mol−1 air: (1) each species is analyzed using its own previously estimated values for Vc,max and Jmax ; (2) the Rubisco kinetic parameters, respiration rate, and temperature dependencies for all parameters are assumed equal for all species, as described in Section 2; (3) in cases where acclimation of gs is considered, this is assumed to be reduced by 20% following Ainsworth and Long [6]; (4) in cases where acclimation of gm is considered, its reduction is taken as 35%, which is the mean of previously reported values for several species (Supplementary Table 2); and (5) in cases where acclimation of Vc,max and Jmax is considered, their reduction is assumed to be 15% and 5%, respectively, following Ainsworth and Long [6]. The scenarios are described in Section 2. When increased temperature is considered (Table 1, Scenario 0) only small increases of photosynthesis are expected, between 0-7%. Instead, when combining higher temperature and CO2 , large increases of AN are predicted (Table 1, Scenario 1), ranging from 43.7% in the species showing the largest photosynthesis (Cistus albidus) to 75% in one of the species showing the lowest rates (the fern Asplenium scolopendrium). On average, the angiosperm and gymnosperm species surveyed have an increase of about 55%, while ferns would increase their photosynthesis by 66%. Considering down regulation of gs by 20% of its current value (Table 1, Scenario 2; Fig. 4A) or of gm by 35% its current value (Table 1, Scenario 3); there is a similar dampening of the high CO2 -induced increase in photosynthesis. Hence, in the representative seed plants the 46 J. Flexas et al. / Plant Science 226 (2014) 41–48 Fig. 4. (A) Percentage of increase in CO2 assimilation rate (AN ) at ambient CO2 concentration of 700 mol mol−1 air compared to 400 mol mol−1 , for angiosperm and fern species in the different scenarios evaluated. See text or Table 1 legend for a description of the scenarios. Values are means and bars indicate the ± SE, n = 7. (B) Percentage of increase in CO2 assimilation rate (AN ) as a function of total conductance to CO2 (stomatal + mesophyll conductance, gtotal ). Each point represents a single species. Fig. 3. Simulation of the effect of increasing temperature on the net CO2 assimilation rate (AN ) at 400 or 700 mol mol−1 CO2 . At 700 mol mol−1 CO2 , the effect of stomatal acclimation, and stomatal plus mesophyll conductance acclimation to 0.1 mol m−2 s−1 , are shown. Same theoretical species as in Fig. 2. expected increase would be now reduced to 44% only, while in ferns it will decline to 53%. Simultaneous acclimation of both conductances (Table 1, Scenario 4) results in roughly a two-fold reduction of the beneficial CO2 effects on photosynthesis compared to the acclimation of a single conductance only (Scenarios 2 and 3). If both conductances are reduced under increased CO2 , the expected increase of AN would be similar in angiosperms, gymnosperms and ferns, being only 38%. Finally, considering additionally downregulation with decreases of Vc,max and Jmax (Table 1, Scenario 5), the expected increase of AN would be reduced on average to 33–35%, also without differences among plant groups. Therefore, as graphically seen in Fig. 4A, moving from Scenario 0 (only temperature is increased) to Scenario 1 (both temperature and CO2 are increased) results in a dramatic predicted increase in photosynthesis. However, progressively incorporating in the model the down-regulation of gs , gm , Vc,max and Jmax (i.e. moving from Scenario 1 to Scenario 5) largely reduced the original expectation for increased AN (Fig. 4A), to about two thirds the estimations without acclimation when all the parameters are considered acclimated. It can also be seen in Fig. 4A that, on average, ferns present somewhat larger increases in photosynthesis than seed plants in most scenarios, although this difference is the biggest in Scenario 1, i.e. when no acclimation is considered. This is simply because, as already anticipated by the theoretical leaf analysis (Fig. 1), the expected relative increases in photosynthesis are larger in low conductance species, like ferns but also some angiosperms and many gymnosperms. Indeed, there is a negative correlation between the total leaf conductance of a given species and the expected % increase in photosynthesis under simulated climate change conditions (Fig. 4B). However, considering possible acclimation of both diffusional and biochemical parameters to high CO2 cancels the apparent % benefit of low conductance species, so that all the species end up with a similar predicted increase in photosynthesis. Overall, the lessons that can be extracted from this simulation study are: (1) acclimation of stomatal conductance to climate change conditions results in a significant reduction of the expected benefits of high CO2 in photosynthesis under light saturation; (2) a potential acclimation of mesophyll conductance to CO2 besides gs cannot be neglected when attempting to model photosynthesis in a climate change scenario, as it roughly doubles the reduction which occurs with acclimation of stomatal conductance alone; (3) species with lower diffusional conductances have greater enhancement of J. Flexas et al. / Plant Science 226 (2014) 41–48 photosynthesis than species with high conductances under those conditions, although they will be also more negatively affected by potential acclimation of gs and/or gm ; (4) it is important to consider the variability among species and plant groups in their acclimation of both conductances to climate change conditions. In this sense, species with low gs and gm , and which lack acclimation, would show much larger increases in photosynthesis than species with high conductances with acclimation. Interestingly, according to recent work by Brodribb’s lab [13,57–59], ferns and possibly also conifers would not change their gs in response to high CO2 – but gm may decline, see Gago et al. [14] and Supplemental Table 2 – for which their most likely scenario would be Scenario 3. In contrast, studies suggest that most angiosperms would reduce both gs and gm , in addition to downregulation of Vc,max and Jmax [61–63], for which their most likely scenario would be Scenario 5. In this purely hypothetical situation, light-saturated photosynthesis could increase by ca. 50% in ferns and conifers but only by about 30% in angiosperms (Table 1). It is unclear whether this fact alone would be sufficient to favor ferns and conifers in comparison to other seed plants to the extent of increasing the range of distribution of these groups, which were dominant prior to the Angiosperm burst, during the Mesozoic era when atmospheric CO2 concentration was much large than nowadays [57,60,64]. However, other studies suggest that ferns and conifers may also show decreased gs under high CO2 associated with changes in leaf anatomy and stomatal density – i.e. the ‘morphological acclimation’ – [11], while others would suggest that they could possess even the ‘physiological down-regulation’, just like seed plants [15,16]. On the other hand, to the best of our knowledge, only one recent study has attempted to grow a fern species under high CO2 and analyze its gs and photosynthesis response [11], while no published work has addressed the gm response to growing under high CO2 conditions in ferns, and very few studies in seed plants [17,34,37,38]. Preliminary results growing the fern N. exaltata under high CO2 showed a decrease of gs by 22% and of gm by just 11% (Flexas and Morales, unpublished). In view of the lack of sufficient knowledge on gs , and especially gm , in response to climate change in different species, and its potential importance to determine the boundaries of future species fitness and distribution, studies are urged in which different species belonging to distant phylogenetic groups are grown under high CO2 (and temperature) to check for potential differences in the acclimation of diffusional conductances to CO2 . Moreover, models that account for dynamic acclimation of gm , gs and other parameters to climate change variables (temperature, CO2 , etc.) should be developed for a better understanding of vegetation dynamics under climate change. Acknowledgements This work was partly supported by the Plan Nacional, Spain, contracts AGL2009-11310 (A. Díaz-Espejo), BFU2011-23294 (J. Flexas and J. Gago), contracts AGL2009-07999 (J. Galmés), BFU2011-26989 (F. Morales), FPI grant from AGL2008-04525-C02-01, AGL201130408-C04-01, (S. Martorell), the FONDECYT N 1120965 (R.E Coopman) UE Innovine Project (Combining innovation in vineyard management and genetic diversity for a sustainable European viticulture (Call FP7-KBBE-2012-6, Proposal N◦ 311775-INNOVINE)) (F. Morales) and Gobierno de Aragón (A03 research group) (F. Morales). Appendix A. Supplementary data Supplementary data associated with this article can be found, in the online version, at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.plantsci. 2014.06.011. 47 References [1] D.B. Lobell, S.M. Gourdji, The influence of climate change on global crop productivity, Plant Physiol. 160 (2012) 1686–1697. [2] IPCC, in: T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, G. Plattner, M.M.B. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, P.M. Midgley (Eds.), Climate Change 2013, The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernamental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK/New York, 2013. [3] A.D.B. Leakey, E.A. 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