Senior Seminar Winter 2009
ISP 4860
Section 002 (Bowen)
Class 3, January 28
Course web site: www.is.wayne.edu/drbowen/SenSemW09
Agenda
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Tonight in UGL Lab C (Room 3150)
Signin and handouts (2)
Setting up a Moodle account; using Moodle
Course website
Review of human footprint
Content: urbanization
Assignments
 Research portfolio
• Writing: organization
• Finishing “Is It Happy New Year?”
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Moodle
• Moodle: an alternative to BlackBoard
• Setting up a Moodle account – handout
• Getting to Moodle: links on course website
 http://tools.comm.wayne.edu/moodle/
• Log in then click on this course
 http://tools.comm.wayne.edu/moodle/course/view.php?id=42
• Log in then straight to this course – save a click
• Can go back and forth between course
website and Moodle, no login after first
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Moodle
• Tour of Moodle website
 Turning work in
• Typing in a Window (choice of topic only)
• Uploading a file (everything else)
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News
Forum
Chat
Messages (careful – delays!)
Logout
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The Human Footprint
• Refers to total human impact on earth
 Includes how we affect ourselves
• US is not typical – we are at the rich end
• Many systems we depend on are
stretched now
• Will get worse
 Population growth, economic growth, safety
margin
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The Human Footprint
• Quick review of different areas – all interlocked
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Population
Urbanization
Ecosystem services
Food / fish
Water
Energy / Global Warming
Tragedy of Commons
Consumption & waste
Development / disease
Land: dwelling & food
Sustainability
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Scope: Six Aspects
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The range or scope for each topic has six
aspects:
a. Adequacy of current supply
b. Adequacy if current trends continue
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Population, development
c. New technology and methods
d. Sustainability
e. Subtopic scope: all types (e.g. for food), a class of
types (e.g. grains) or one type (e.g. rice)
f. Geographical scope: worldwide, world region or
single nation? (NOT local, e.g. Detroit except as an
illustration or contrast of other content)
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Choosing Your Scope
• On your own, you can narrow one of e or f
by one level
• If you want to narrow two aspects or more
than one level of the scope, you need to:
 Describe what you want to do
 Get my approval
• If, when you submit your topic on Moodle,
you just use the one-word topic, you are
choosing the full scope (all 3 aspects)
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Stick With Your Choice
• Last semester, many people said they kept
changing their topic because they “found
more research resources” on another topic
 They did not finish the paper (did not even get
a good start)
 You will be able to find more than enough
resources on any one of these topics
 If you do change topic, you have to repost on
Moodle.
• Do not erase old topic, just put the new one
underneath
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All Are Interlocked
• Cannot solve one while making others
worse
 Yes, this is interdisciplinary
 This is why I want your paper to begin and
end (Chapters 1 and 5) with the overview
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The human footprint
• Many of these areas are in trouble now
• Will get worse
 Population growth
 Economic growth
 Safety margin
• World population now about 6.6 B, headed
for 9.1 by 2050 (UN)
• Will increase need for resources in all
areas
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Human Population
Region
World
China
India
US
Europe
More Developed
Less Developed
Least Developed
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2007 Pop (B)
6.6
1.3
1.0
0.31
0.73
1.2
5.4
0.80
ISP 4860 Winter 2009, Class 3
2050 UN est.
9.1
1.4
1.5
0.41
0.65
1.2
7.8
1.7
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The Human Footprint
• Most of additional world population will be
poor, use fewer resources
• So population rise might not have as large
an impact as the numbers suggest, but…
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The Human Footprint
• Will get worse – economic growth
 Rest of humanity wants to be like developed
world
 US ~4.5% of population
 For example, we consume 20 M Bbl/day of
petroleum, whole world consumes 80 (US
25%)
 Factor of five to seven increase (depends on
area) if they achieve our current lifestyle
 If new population is poor, they will have further
to develop, so same problem eventually
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The Human Footprint
• Will get worse
 I suggest we also need a safety factor
because systems are stretched now
• Maybe 1.5 for safety factor
 Total increase in consumption:
1.5 (population) × 6 (consumption) × 1.5
(safety) = 12 to 15 (8 to 10 without safety
factor)
 No one knows how to produce this much
more in any aspect
• YOUR PAPER CAN STOP HERE
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The Human Footprint
• One view is that the future will be like our
present, but with more people
 So we just need to muddle along, adjusting
here or there
• But no, we can’t get there (see previous)
• Need to reinvent civilization
 Has happened several times before
 Should we hurry the change along, or
continue the present as long as we can?
• Different people have different opinions here
• Someone has to have an idea before change
happens
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The Human Footprint
• How can a change this large happen,
worldwide?
 I don’t see any government that has the ability
and the will to force it on the world
 Therefore, the change must be something we
all see as better than what we have now
 Probably composed of many small changes
and experiments that accumulate
• My own guess is that online life will be a
part – we see it starting already
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The Human Footprint
• US and other developed countries in the
best position to lead these changes
 Many people seeing this as good business
also
 If it is too expensive for poor countries, won’t
work, unless they develop economically
• One reaction: “This doesn’t affect me.”
 Yes it does – interview with Maine lobsterman
• What they do in Washington and New York doesn’t
affect me. I just want people to start buying
lobsters again.
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Content: Urbanization
• Urbanization: mass movement of people
(especially poor) into cities
 Has already happened in developed
countries, but will grow to 75%
 Not in PIP
 In SOP, part of Human Population chapter –
pg 16 ff
 UN projection: almost all growth will be in
cities in the poor countries
• 2.2 B ↑, 2.1 B ↑ in cities, 2.0 ↑ in poor countries
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Urbanization
(Vital Signs 2007-2008)
• “Megacities” – more than ten million
population – number is increasing
• What causes this:
 Higher urban birth rates
 Rural poverty
 War
• Problems:
 Poverty – UN defines this as lack of at least
one basic necessity (water, sanitation,
housing, secure tenure)
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Urbanization
• Problems
 Poor move to cities without housing,
sanitation
 “Squatting”
 No education, jobs, etc.
 Will need to recycle more resources within
urban areas
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Urbanization (2008 NYT Almanac)
Rank
1975
2000
2005
2015
1
Tokyo
Tokyo
Tokyo
2
4
NYNewark
Mexico
City
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Mexico
City
NYNewark
São Paulo
Mexico
Mumbai
City
NY-Newark Mexico
City
São Paulo São Paulo
5
?
Mumbai
Mumbai
3
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Tokyo
NYNewark
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Other Demographic Trends
• Urbanization is a demographic trend
• Aging is another – world population will get
older in all regions
• Life expectancy:
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World: 67
More developed regions: 76
Less developed regions: 63
Least developed countries: 27
• Another: increasing literacy, worldwide
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Assignments
• Today – finish Planet In Peril
• Next week (February 4)
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Choice of topic due via Moodle
Bring Research Portfolio to class (next page)
Back to 012 Manoogian for rest of semester
My office hours in 012 Manoogian
• February 11: Paper Planner via Moodle (see
Writing section)
• February 18: list of references via Moodle
• February 25: Chapter 1 (overview) draft
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For Next Week…
• Have research portfolio:
 Three-ring binder
 Dividers to separate sections – example sections
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Syllabus
Study Tools: dates, names, definitions, etc.
Word hoard: Definitions of new words you learn.
Weekly Meetings: notes, handouts
Scrapbook: materials related to course including newspaper clips,
media comments, INTERNET downloads, ads, cartoons,
summaries of conversations, documents, essays, etc.
• Final Research Paper: all materials related to papers such as drafts,
database sheets and bibliography, notes, photocopies of readings,
and all drafts.
• Pouch for tools such as pens, markers, 3-hole punch, stapler, etc.
• Place for 3½-inch floppy diskette labeled with your name, or a USB
flash drive, any capacity
• Ready for Moodle picture
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Assignments
• February 18 – list of 12 research-quality
references as a word-processing
document turned in via Moodle
 Can be changed later
 Include all bibliographic information
 Suggestion: find four by February 4, four more
by February 11, four more by February 18
 8 from WSU databases (not including SIRS)
• In class next week: practice on MLA
citations
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Writing: Organization
• Intro, Body, Conclusion for each Chapter
 Intro: roadmap
 Conclusion: review but also tell reader why
s/he should be interested; what is significant,
why should I care?
• Within Body
 Deal with one topic and finish it, then on to
another
 Transitions between topics – alert your reader
 Include detail and examples
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Writing: Organization
• Chapter Planner has helped some
• Outline used to be important, but with
word processor can change material
around
• Due February 11 for Chapter 1 draft
 You already have the information you need for
this: PIP, three classes, course website
articles
 Word processing document similar to
handout, turned in via Moodle
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Writing
• Finishing “Is It Happy New Year?”
 Small groups
• Each essay gets read by its author
• Group comments on organization and detail
• Author takes notes
 Author rewrites
• Turn in original, notes and rewrite
• Done, go home, see you next week in 012
Manoogian. Drive safely!
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