John Vanston
Chairman
MiniTrends and
Macro-Change:
Turbo-Charging
Your Future
Master Session for
Conference Chair, MiniTrends 2014: Insight,
Innovation & Strategy
Author, MINITRENDS: How Innovators &
Entrepreneurs Discover & Profit From Business
& Technology Trends
(512) 258-8898
www.minitrends.com ● www.tfi.com ● [email protected]
Copyright © 2014, John Vanston/Carrie Vanston, Technology Futures, Inc.
Thursday, July 10, 2014
Orlando, Florida
MEGATRENDS John Naisbitt 1982

Industrial Society → Information Society

Forced Technology → High Tech/High Touch

National Economy → Word Economy

Short Term → Long Term

Centralization → Decentralization

Institutional Help → Self Help

Representative Democracy → Participatory Democracy

Hierarchies → Networking

North → South

Either/Or → Multiple Options
2
Megatrends Current

Convergence of Computer and
Communication Technologies

Movement from a Physics Age
to the Biotechnology Age

Increasing Awareness of Climate Change

Government Involvement in the Financial Arena

Explosion of Social Media Involvement

Growing Difficulty with Sovereign Debt

Aging of Populations in Earth’s Most Prosperous Nations

Long Term Energy Shortage

Rise in China’s Economic Power
3
Megatrends are certainly important


However, it is hard to exploit them
successfully because:
•
They are well known
•
They are too general to provide specific
guidance
Buried within Megatrends are MiniTrends
4
MiniTrends…
…are emerging trends that are of a scope
and importance to represent attractive
business opportunities to individuals and
organizations that are:

Alert enough to recognize them

Perceptive enough to appreciate them

Clever enough to take advantage of them
5
MiniTrends Offer Real Opportunities
to YOU and Other Individuals!
Characteristics of a Great MiniTrend:

Far enough along to make projections

Promises to be significant in 2-5 years

Not yet appreciated widely

Value-driven purpose drives passion
6
Energy Needs
Renewable Energy
Wind Power
Wind
Generator
Controls
(Megatrend)
This
is
a Minitrend
(Still
a Megatrend)
7
MiniTrends Assist:

Entrepreneurs to identify, assess, and
exploit attractive new business opportunities

Decision Makers in small and mid-size
businesses to gain advantage by recognizing
and utilizing emerging trends

Innovative Thinkers in larger businesses to
distinguish themselves by their special
insights and perceptiveness

Investors to uncover attractive new
investment opportunities

Job Seekers to define
employment opportunities
8
I. Attractiveness
to Business
Community
II. Attractiveness
to You
9
Business Community
 Excites
 Opens
Enthusiasm
up opportunities
 Special
Differentiating Factors
10
Factors to Be Considered

The exact nature of the Minitrend

The special attractiveness of the
Minitrend to customers

The size and nature of the potential
markets

Where the Minitrend is in the emergence
process

Potential implications of exogenous
factors
11
Size and Nature of Potential
Market
 Define
markets MiniTrend can serve
 Consider
future markets
 Consider
ancillary markets
 Consider
social implications
12
Where in
Development
Process?
13
Determine where in MiniTrend is
in the Emergence Process
Fisher-Pry Substitution Model
90%
Fisher-Pry Model
80%
y(t) =
1
1 + e-b(t-a)
70%
60%
50%
Percentage
New
40%
30%
Basic FP Charts 2004
Percentage of Installed Base
100%
20%
10%
0%
0
5
10
15
Time
20
25
30
Source: Technology Futures, Inc.
14
Personal Attractiveness

Clarify personal interests

Consider your personal situation
15
The MiniTrend Concept allows both
you and your colleagues to
demonstrate and utilize your
imagination, your intelligence, your
perceptiveness, your desire to make
the world a better place, and
YOUR PASSION
16
It’s also a lot of fun!
17
These and other non-sourced photos: Clipart.com (A division of Vital Imagery Ltd.) or TFI
John Vanston
Chairman
MiniTrends and
Macro-Change:
Turbo-Charging
Your Future
Master Session for
Conference Chair, MiniTrends 2014: Insight,
Innovation & Strategy
Author, MINITRENDS: How Innovators &
Entrepreneurs Discover & Profit From Business
& Technology Trends
(512) 258-8898
www.minitrends.com ● www.tfi.com ● [email protected]
Copyright © 2014, John Vanston/Carrie Vanston, Technology Futures, Inc.
Thursday, July 10, 2014
Orlando, Florida