ergy into latent heat and convect turbulent heat from the surface7–10 , in line with the standard measurement, reporting and verification the local temperature response to LCMC can vary significantly in procedures adopted in climate policies for the accounting of biogeospace for equal magnitudes of radiative forcing at the top of the chemical mitigation potentials of land use activities19 . atmosphere (TOA), making it difficult to characterize in a manner Here, we combine predictions from a semi-mechanistic empirical comparable with CO2 and other homogeneous global forcings11,12 . model with satellite remote sensing and other global observations 10.1038/NCLIMATE3250 direct surface temperature As global radiative forcings from changes in surface albedo to provide global estimates of the localDOI: become increasingly included alongside greenhouse gases (GHG) in response to nine common LCMC perturbations. Our data-driven 13,14 In the format provided the authorslocal and non-radiative unedited. mech- PUBLISHED approachONLINE: leverages benefits of both the10.1038/NCLIMATE3250 high temporal resolution impact assessment studiesby , excluding XXthe MONTH XXXX | DOI: anisms increases the risk of promoting land sector policies that and large temporal extent of a continuous in situ observational may be counter to the aims of mitigation or adaptation4–6 . This is record of surface energy fluxes and meteorology, and the large spaparticularly important since local temperature change is directly tial extent of the various remote sensing and other Earth observation felt and responded to by human societies and ecosystems6 . As an records used to define climatologies of important environmental example, re-/afforestation projects may exert a positive radiative state variables. Combining in situ with satellite remote sensing and forcing from an albedo decrease yet a cooling at the surface owing other global observations provides a means to efficiently map and to enhanced evapotranspiration and turbulent mixing of air15 —two attribute local surface energy balance responses to multiple LCMC key non-radiative drivers of the surface energy balance16 . Hence, types at the global scale20,21 , further providing a basis for additional knowing where land-based projects will reduce surface temperature characterizations that inform about the relative importance of nonafter considering the combined effects of both radiative and non- radiative processes on land, and about the importance of local radiative mechanisms can enhance mitigation benefits at both the LCMC relative to global drivers such as CO2 . local and global scales. Spatially explicit measures that can account for the combined ef- Surface energy redistribution on land 1 3,4 5 6 Ryan Bright , Edouard Davin2,and Thomas O’Halloran Juliaecosystem Pongratz , Kaiguang Zhao fects of M. changes to albedo, evapotranspiration, turbulence at the For a ,given or land cover type, in situ measurements 7 land–atmosphere interface can inform decisions surrounding land of energy fluxes and other meteorological variables are necessary and Alessandro Cescatti SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION ARTICLES Local temperature response to land cover and management change driven by non-radiative processes * Following a land cover/land management change (LCMC), local surface temperature responds to both a change in available 1 The Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research, 1431 Ås, Norway. 2 Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH-Zürich, 8092 Zürich, energy and a change in the way energy is redistributed by various non-radiative mechanisms. However, the extent to 3 Department of Forestry and Environmental Conservation, Clemson University, Clemson, South Carolina 29634, USA. 4 Baruch Institute of Switzerland. which non-radiative mechanisms contribute to the local direct temperature response for different types of LCMC across 5 Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Coastal Ecology and Forest Science, Clemson University, Georgetown, South Carolinaof29440, USA. the world remains uncertain. Here, we combine extensive records remote sensing and in situ observation to show that 6 School of Environment and Natural Resources, OARDC, The Ohio State University, Wooster, Ohio 44691, Bundesstraße 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany. non-radiative mechanisms dominate the local response in most regions for eight of nine common LCMC perturbations. We 7 European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Directorate for Sustainable Resources, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy. *e-mail: [email protected] USA. that find forest cover gains lead to an annual cooling in all regions south of the upper conterminous United States, northern Europe, and Siberia—reinforcing the attractiveness of re-/afforestation as a local mitigation and adaptation measure in these regions. Our results the importance accounting for non-radiative mechanisms when evaluating local land-based1 NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | affirm ADVANCE ONLINE PUBLICATIONof| www.nature.com/natureclimatechange mitigation/adaptation policies. S urface energy budgets are strongly influenced by the biogeophysical characteristics of the land surface controlling atmospheric exchanges of moisture, momentum and energy1–3 . Through forestry and agricultural activities, humans perturb these characteristics, with consequent direct impacts on the surface energy balance, and in turn, on local and regional temperatures2–6 . Owing to differences by which vegetated surfaces channel solar energy into latent heat and convect turbulent heat from the surface7–10 , the local temperature response to LCMC can vary significantly in space for equal magnitudes of radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), making it difficult to characterize in a manner comparable with CO2 and other homogeneous global forcings11,12 . As global radiative forcings from changes in surface albedo become increasingly included alongside greenhouse gases (GHG) in impact assessment studies13,14 , excluding local non-radiative mechanisms increases the risk of promoting land sector policies that may be counter to the aims of mitigation or adaptation4–6 . This is particularly important since local temperature change is directly felt and responded to by human societies and ecosystems6 . As an example, re-/afforestation projects may exert a positive radiative forcing from an albedo decrease yet a cooling at the surface owing to enhanced evapotranspiration and turbulent mixing of air15 —two key non-radiative drivers of the surface energy balance16 . Hence, knowing where land-based projects will reduce surface temperature after considering the combined effects of both radiative and nonradiative mechanisms can enhance mitigation benefits at both the local and global scales. Spatially explicit measures that can account for the combined effects of changes to albedo, evapotranspiration, and turbulence at the land–atmosphere interface can inform decisions surrounding land management policy. Existing measures have limited utility in land planning or management contexts because they: are not spatially explicit17 ; are computed with respect to a non-vegetated land surface baseline instead of comparing different vegetation covers17,18 ; or are normalized to biogeochemical effects and integrated over a fixed time horizon17 . Further, existing measures are derived from models that are inherently uncertain. Observation-driven studies are more in line with the standard measurement, reporting and verification procedures adopted in climate policies for the accounting of biogeochemical mitigation potentials of land use activities19 . Here, we combine predictions from a semi-mechanistic empirical model with satellite remote sensing and other global observations to provide global estimates of the local direct surface temperature response to nine common LCMC perturbations. Our data-driven approach leverages the benefits of both the high temporal resolution and large temporal extent of a continuous in situ observational record of surface energy fluxes and meteorology, and the large spatial extent of the various remote sensing and other Earth observation records used to define climatologies of important environmental state variables. Combining in situ with satellite remote sensing and other global observations provides a means to efficiently map and attribute local surface energy balance responses to multiple LCMC types at the global scale20,21 , further providing a basis for additional characterizations that inform about the relative importance of nonradiative processes on land, and about the importance of local LCMC relative to global drivers such as CO2 . Surface energy redistribution on land For a given ecosystem or land cover type, in situ measurements of energy fluxes and other meteorological variables are necessary 1 The Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research, 1431 Ås, Norway. 2 Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH-Zürich, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland. 3 Department of Forestry and Environmental Conservation, Clemson University, Clemson, South Carolina 29634, USA. 4 Baruch Institute of Coastal Ecology and Forest Science, Clemson University, Georgetown, South Carolina 29440, USA. 5 Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstraße 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany. 6 School of Environment and Natural Resources, OARDC, The Ohio State University, Wooster, Ohio 44691, NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | www.nature.com/natureclimatechange USA. 7 European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Directorate for Sustainable Resources, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy. *e-mail: [email protected] © 2017 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. FLUXNET data The rationale for the six chosen land cover types is partly founded on analyses of Late-Holocene land use reconstructions which peg the conversion of extra-tropical (ENF; DBF) and tropical (EBF) forests to agricultural lands like pastures (GRA) and croplands (CRO) as being the most common form of land cover change 1. As for land management change, common types include the switch from deciduous broadleaf (DBF) to evergreen needleleaf (ENF) species 2 and the addition of irrigation to agriculture 3. CRO was disaggregated into rainfed (CRO-Rain) and irrigated (CRO-Irr.) sites to isolate the direct effects of irrigation on the surface energy balance 4,5. We employed the FLUXNET2015 v3 Tier 1 dataset (http://fluxnet.fluxdata.org/data/fluxnet2015-dataset/ ) augmented with the LaThuile Synthesis “Opened” dataset (http://fluxnet.fluxdata.org/data/la-thuile-dataset/ ) for sites not contained in FLUXNET2015 dataset. Sites used in our analysis were selected according to two main criteria: i) they needed to be reported by site Principal Investigator(s) as being one of the six IGBP vegetation cover types described above; and ii) they needed to have a record of all variables required to compute f such as LW , LW , SW , SW , Ta , and G . Monthly FLUXNET2015 data were filtered such that only months containing less than 10% gapfilled data were included, which significantly reduced the sample size yet ensured those data which were included in our final dataset were of exceptionally high quality. See 6 http://fluxnet.fluxdata.org/data/fluxnet2015-dataset/data-processing/ and ref. for additional detail surrounding the gap-filling methodology, and ref.7 for additional detail surrounding the QA/QC protocol. As for the LaThuile “Opened” dataset, we computed monthly means of daily means after initial filtering to exclude daily values comprising less than 90% of the observed or high-confidence gap-filled half-hourly record denoted by the quality flag “fqcOK”. Only full months were included, which again reduced the total number of data points including in our sample. After controlling for valid sites and acceptable data quality, our in-situ dataset was left with 324.5 site-years of monthly mean observations distributed over 96 sites and nine Köppen-Geiger climate zones 8. See Table S6 at the end of this document for additional site detail and acknowledgements. Figure S1 | Site locations. Geographic locations of the sites comprising our final in-situ dataset after applying variable-of-interest and quality assurance filtering. We chose a monthly time step for several reasons. Firstly, the highest quality gridded global data products driving the temperature response model (Eq. (1) of the main article) are commonly available at monthly resolution. Secondly, seasonality is preserved while a sufficient number of data points for model training are retained. Thirdly, greater computational efficiency is achieved compared to running at a daily time step. Lastly, aggregation reduces some of the noise in the insitu dataset. Previous research has shown that the ecological representativeness of FLUXNET sites is superior to the geographical representativeness 9 in terms of the climate and ecological variables of interest. The in-situ record underlying our analysis represented the climate-vegetation space quite well – illustrated in Figure S2. These indications instill confidence that our predictions of the monthly energy redistribution factor f are minimally compromised by the unequal spatial sampling of the global terrestrial surface afforded by FLUXNET siting. Figure S2 | Climate-vegetation space. Global terrestrial monthly mean near surface air temperature and precipitation totals10 (blue dots, background, 2001-2011 means) relative to monthly means seen at our FLUXNET sites (legend). Modeling of the energy redistribution factor Two important considerations went into the design of the f model. Firstly, given the reduced sample size of the in-situ dataset following the data filtering algorithm, it was important to aim for a more mechanistic model that preserved as much of the knowledge of the primary system as possible in terms of structural connectivity and functional mechanisms. Secondly, site-level explanatory variables needed to be available at the global gridded scale. In other words, some otherwise pertinent data must be ignored because the respective global datasets either did not exist or were insufficient. The requirement that all predictor variables be available for all sites and grid cells is a major obstacle to empirical upscaling 11; nevertheless, we were able to develop models with reasonably good predictive performance, driven with predictors for which good quality globally-gridded datasets existed: 1 (4 kTa3 ) f k1 ( Rn* G ) k2 exp( ) k3 P (S1) where Eq. (S1) is Eq. (3) of the main article (Methods), reproduced here for the reader’s convenience. The model retains the original structure of Eq. (2) of the main article (Methods) but employs Ta rather than Ts in the longwave feedback expression of the numerator, and surface albedo and precipitation P in the denominator as proxies for both the environmental and biological controls governing the Ts Ta gradient. Prior to regression analysis, we removed outliers of f defined as all values outside the 5th and 95th percentiles. The performance of the final models can be visualized in Figure S3, whereas parameter values and a statistical summary are reported in Table S1. Figure S3 | Model performance – monthly f . Predictions vs. observations of monthly energy redistribution f for the six grouped land cover types. Model predictions presented here are based on Eq. (S1) (or Eq. (3) of the main article Methods). GRA occupies the broadest range of climate space (Fig. S3) making f more challenging to predict in the absence of additional explanatory variables in the model function, which becomes apparent when looking at the distribution of bias presented in Figure S4, which, fortunately, is rather heteroscedastic. Predictions for croplands are complicated by the extra variability introduced by anthropogenic factors influencing the specific crop type, growing season timing (of sowing and harvest events) and phenology, productivity, surface and soil properties, etc. Despite this extra variability, both crop model fits are good, and all parameters are statistically significant with the exception of the y-intercept term for irrigated crops ( k1 ; Table S1). Table S1 | f model parameters and performance summary. Performance statistics and parameter values for the models used to predict the monthly mean energy redistribution factor f for the six major IGBP land cover types. All parameters except those shown in boldface font are statistically significant at p<0.05, with standard errors (SE) shown in parentheses. ENF DBF EBF GRA CRO (Irr.) CRO (Rain) R2 Mean Median RMSE -8.7e-3 (7.2e-4) -8.5e-3 (6.3e-4) -6.6e-3 (1.7e-3) 1,192 448 115 1,126 213 0.82 0.85 0.87 0.69 0.73 3.38 3.79 5.67 1.73 3.29 3.22 3.29 6.00 1.87 3.30 1.35 1.06 1.31 1.13 1.40 -6.8e-3 (1.6e-3) 536 0.68 1.71 1.65 1.29 k1 k2 k3 #Obs. -0.49 (0.07) -0.72 (0.92) 1.04 (0.43) -0.52 (0.06) -3.2e-3 (5.7 e-4) -0.08 (0.18) 3.89 (0.07) 3.29 (0.08) 4.22 (0.31) 5.80 (0.13) 4.36 (0.27) -0.52 (0.09) 5.12 (0.19) -9.4e-5 (5.9e-4) (months) The coefficient k3 represents the sensitivity of f to water available for evaporation and transpiration, which is represented by the monthly mean precipitation (P ; in mm) in our models. The k3 term tends to be greater in magnitude for EBF, CRO and GRA – or those vegetation types typically having shallower rooting depths like tropical forests, croplands, and grasslands 12. Trees outside the tropics typically have deeper rooting depth, thus transpiration is less sensitive to frequent precipitation events, and k3 is found to be smaller for the ENF and DBF forest cases. Note that for DBF the k3 term is not statistically significant. For all vegetation cover types except EBF the y-intercept term is negative. Negative values are confined to months with low external energy inputs such as in high latitude winter in which the eco-physiological mechanisms are dormant. Since negative values of f have no meaningful physical interpretation they were excluded from our analysis. Potential temperature vs. air temperature We computed f using the air temperature above reference height ( Ta ) in the denominator of Eq. (2) in the main article rather than the potential temperature a since reference heights were rarely over 40 m in our analysis – a distance under which differences in lapse rates are deemed to have negligible impacts on f 13. Using the DBF model and assuming a dry adiabatic lapse rate of 0.0098 ◦C m-1, for instance, f only decreases from 7.66 to 7.63 when Ta is 15 ◦C and when Rn* G is 200 Wm-2. Modeling of the ground heat flux Properties of the soil along with vegetation cover and structure are strong controls of the share of the net radiation flux diffused into the subsurface medium – or G. Because soil heat influxes and effluxes are approximately balanced over longer time periods (i.e., annual and interannual means around zero), some modelers assume a zero heat flux, although there is some evidence to support that this may not be true 14, particularly under a changing climate 15,16. We chose to include G in our analysis in order to better represent the seasonality of the surface energy budget in the different land cover types. For example, forests are typically less sensitive than herbaceous land cover types to strong diurnal and seasonal fluctuations in G given their large leaf areas that shade the ground surface for most of the year 17. In the absence of soil property and vegetation structure information, we are forced to rely on environmental explanatory variables when modeling the monthly mean ground heat flux. Because surface albedo is a strong function of canopy cover and structure, we find that it acts as a reasonable explanatory variable of the monthly G, finding a good linear relationship between the monthly mean G and the monthly mean incoming solar radiation absorbed by the surface – or SW (1 ) -- illustrated in Figure S4. Figure S4 | G vs SWnet . Relationship between the monthly mean soil heat flux G and the monthly mean net shortwave radiation SWnet -- or SW (1 ) . Parameter values of the linear fits are shown in legends and in Table S2. Table S2 | G model parameters and performance summary. Performance statistics and parameter values for the models used to predict the monthly mean ground heat flux G for each vegetation cover type. Model form is shown in legends of Fig. S4. Note that the same cropland model is used for both rainfed and irrigated crops. All parameters are statistically significant at p < 0.05, with standard errors (SE) shown in parentheses. ENF DBF EBF GRA CRO (All) a b # Obs. R2 RMSE -3.98 (0.09) -5.29 (0.18) -5.90 (0.21) -7.19 (0.23) -6.85 (0.35) 0.030 (5.9 e-4) 0.044 (1.3 e-3) 0.032 (1.1 e-3) 0.054 (1.4 e-3) 0.058 (2.6 e-3) 1,642 557 178 1,354 671 0.62 0.67 0.82 0.52 0.42 1.7 2.1 0.9 3.9 4.5 As expected, under high solar radiation loading the highest G values were found for those land cover types having low vegetation cover fractions and leaf area indices, such as CRO (Rain) and GRA. Monthly G at these sites is more sensitive to solar radiation loading than the forest cover types as indicated by their higher slopes ((“b” in Table S2). Also as expected, average values hovered around zero for all land cover types with the exception of CRO (Irr.). Here, average values were negative implying that CRO (Irr.) behaves as a net source of heat to the atmosphere which is clearly not the case. We offer two possible explanations of the negative trend here: either i) frequent irrigation was convoluting the flux data at the sites, or ii) a fraction of G was transported by the percolation of water along the soil profile and thus not detected by the heat flux plates. Because of this uncertainty we elected to exclude the CRO (Irr.) model when calculating the monthly f (Eq. (S1) & Eq. (3) Methods) and instead use the model for CRO (Rain). Thus G = 0 in our CRO (Rain)CRO (Irr.) case and the Ts presented in Figure 2i of the main article is driven solely by f . Quantifying local Ts at the global scale Quantifying Ts at the global scale first involved predicting f in the valid vegetation space for which the six vegetation cover types were allowed to occur. This was done by first overlaying MODIS-derived IGBP land cover maps (for 2005)18 with maps of Köppen-Geiger climate zones (1901-2000 climate)8, allowing the spatial extent of each climate zone for which the vegetation cover of interest was found to occur to comprise part of the valid vegetation space for that vegetation cover. For the nine LCMC cases, Ts was predicted only for the overlapping portions of the two vegetation cover spaces defining the LCMC case in question. Table S3. | Global statistical summary for the annual mean energy re-distribution factor f . Annual eco-regiona means, medians, and inner-90th percentile range of f . Eco-regiona Eco-regiona Annual 95th 5th Annual Mean Median ENF 3.4 2.7 5.8 2.3 DBF 3.2 2.4 5.4 2.1 EBF 7.5 7.3 9.9 6.2 GRA 2.1 1.5 3.9 1.0 CRO 2.5 1.9 4.6 1.1 CRO (Irr.) 3.3 2.7 6.2 1.5 a Refers to the valid vegetation cover space defined above and the sub-panel area presented as Figure 1 of the main article. Six independent variables were required to scale f globally: downwelling shortwave radiation at surface level ( SW ), downwelling longwave radiation at surface level ( LW ), precipitation (P), air temperature ( Ta ), surface albedo ( ), and surface upwelling longwave radiation ( LW ) – with the two latter variables being vegetation cover-dependent. For surface albedo, we employed look-up maps of vegetation-dependent gridded monthly means of bihemispherical reflectance in the entire shortwave broadband based on a 2001-2011 MODIS 43A Albedo/BRDF retrieval time series produced in ref19. For the upwelling longwave radiation flux – also vegetation cover dependent – we first identified all pixels of the CERES EBAF-Surface product20 containing greater than 95% of one of our five vegetation covers using a MODIS-derived land cover map 18. We then regressed pure-pixel LW with Ta and LAI to obtain a vegetation-cover dependent LW model whose performance summary is provided in Table S4. These were required to compute the land-cover specific 0 (a weak function of LW ) needed to estimate Ts (Eq. (1), Methods). LW and for both cropland cases were considered identical in our analysis. Table S4 | LW model performance and parameter values. Regression parameters and goodness-of-fit statistics for the regression models used to predict a 2001-2011 monthly mean land-cover dependent LW flux for each 1◦ x 1◦ grid cell. All parameters are statistically significant at p<0.05, with standard errors (SE) shown in parentheses. The regression equation is: LW a b(Ta ) c( LAI ) . ENF DBF EBF GRA CRO (All) a b c # Obs. R2 RMSE 315 (0.34) 327 (0.88) 324 (0.57) 323 (0.08) 312 (0.19) 5.2 (0.01) 5.4 (0.03) 5.3 (9.4 e-3) 5.3 (3.1 e-3) 5.8 (6.1 e-3) -0.53 (0.11) -3.4 (0.12) -2.1 (0.08) -0.02 (0.06) 0.26 (0.07) 4,356 3,828 73,920 100,056 39,600 0.97 0.94 0.96 0.97 0.97 8.4 10.3 9.5 14.3 12.4 Monthly mean 2001-2011 climatologies for SW and LW were also based on CERES EBAFSurface product20; monthly climatologies of Ta and P for the same time period were sourced from the University of Delaware empirically-derived gridded monthly terrestrial precipitation and temperature product 10. Annual Ts – contribution analysis The contributions to the annual mean Ts (Fig. 2 in main article) by the three individual mechanisms -- G , Rn* , and f -- are presented in Figures S5-S7. Figure S5 | Ts from G . Contribution to annual mean Ts from G . For the forest gain cases (Figure S5 a-f) G is positive during northern hemisphere winters and negative during northern hemisphere summers. At northern latitudes the signal from the positive G in winter months (henceforth DJF; December-January-February) dominates the annual mean signal resulting in a net cooling that is more prominent at high latitudes where the Planck sensitivity 0 is largest at this time of year. The opposite seasonal pattern is true for DBFENF and GRACRO (Rain) where a positive G signal in winter dominates the annual mean, increasing in magnitude with latitude. Forest cover gains at high latitudes (Fig. S6 a, b, d, e) exerts a strong radiative warming signal in winter (henceforth DJF; December-January-February) and spring (henceforth MAM; MarchApril-May) that dominates the annual mean. The annual response is slightly larger in these regions when GRA becomes forest (Fig. S6 c&d) relative to CRO cases (Fig. S6 a&b). Figure S6 | Ts from Rn* . Contribution to annual mean Ts from Rn* ( ). The conversion of DBF to ENF forest results in annual radiative warming that tends to increase with latitude as one moves further inland (Fig. S6g) in northern N. America and Asia. The latitudinal gradient becomes obscured in southern N. America and China. Conversion of GRA to CRO results in annual radiative warming in most regions to varying magnitudes, with the largest radiative warming effect found in northern N. America and eastern Siberia (Fig. S6h). EBF gains in the tropics results in a negligible radiative signal (Fig. S6 c&f). The same albedo dataset19 is used for both CRO (Rain) and CRO (Irr.) thus there is zero radiative signal in the irrigated crop conversion case (Fig. S6i). Forest cover gains leads to strong annual cooling signals from f in all regions of the planet which is slightly larger for the GRA cases than for CRO (Fig. S7 a-f). Conversion of forest cover from DBF to ENF results in moderate cooling from f that is strongest in northern N. America and eastern Asia (Fig. S7g). Figure S7 | Ts from f . Contribution to annual mean Ts from f ( and z0 ). The conversion of GRA to CRO (Rain) often leads to a cooling signal from f although there is no discernible spatial pattern (Fig. S7h). Cooling is seen everywhere for the irrigated cropland conversion case (Fig. S7i) and tends to scale negatively with latitude and positively with net radiation. Seasonal patterns in local energy redistribution ( f ) Seasonal means of monthly f for the six land cover types are presented in Figures S8-10. Starting with DJF, little differences in f are seen at mid- and high latitudes between tall (Fig. S8 a&c) and short-statured vegetation cover types which, for many regions, is zero for the latter (Fig. S8 b, d, f). Differences between tall- and short-statured land covers emerge at the tropics/subtropics. For short-statured vegetation covers, GRA tends to be lower than CRO (Rain) which in turn is lower than CRO (Irr.) (Fig. S8 b, d, f). Figure S8 | DJF mean f . Mean of monthly mean f for December, January, and February. Above 50◦N, ENF can be slightly higher than DBF which might be attributable to their larger aerodynamic roughness heights relative to DBF at these latitudes. Figure S9 | MAM mean f . Mean of monthly mean f for March, April, and May. During MAM, differences in f between DBF and ENF are seen most clearly over 60◦N, below 20◦S, and in northwest China (Fig. S9 a&c), where f is higher for ENF than for DBF. Apart from their larger roughnesses, Bowen ratios may be lower in ENF relative to DBF during spring months in these regions21. In spring, spatial patterns and magnitudes in CRO (Rain) and GRA are less similar than in winter at lower latitudes (Fig. S9, b & f). Figure S10 | JJA mean f . Mean of monthly mean f for June, July, and August. During JJA (June-July-August), spatial patterns of f in GRA and CRO (Rain) are similar although values for GRA are typically lower in magnitude. Values for ENF mostly exceed those for DBF in the northern hemisphere with the exception of 30-50◦N, where DBF values can be slightly higher. Differences in JJA f between ENF and DBF are most noticeable in China, where values for ENF can be 0.5-1 lower than for DBF (Fig. S10 a&c). For temperate mid-latitudes, during JJA values for CRO (Irr.) can be of similar magnitude as for ENF and DBF forests, although the spatial variability within latitude bands is much larger than for forests (Fig. S10d). Figure S11 | SON mean f . November. Mean of monthly mean f for September, October, and At mid- and high latitudes during SON (September-October-November), spatial patterns for GRA and CRO (Rain) (Fig. S11 b&f) and ENF and DBF (Fig. S11 a&c) become similar again, although values for CRO (Rain) are typically larger than GRA in the tropics and southern hemisphere. Seasonal patterns in local Ts Figures S12-S14 present seasonal responses by Ts to the nine LCMC cases. Figure S12 | DJF Ts . Mean Ts for December, January, and February. High latitude warming from forest cover gains in DJF (Fig. S12 a, b, d, e) is mostly driven by the negative . The switch from DBF to ENF mostly results in moderate warming in the boreal belt and a slight cooling in the southern hemisphere (Fig. S12g). For GRACRO (Rain), the strong DJF warming seen in northern N. America and eastern Siberia is dominated by a negative signal (Fig. S6h); DJF also dominates the annual mean in these regions (Fig. 2h of main article). Moderate DJF cooling is detected for CRO (Rain)CRO (Irr.) in the southern hemisphere and low-latitudes of the northern hemisphere (Fig. S12i). Figure S13 | MAM Ts . Mean Ts for March, April, and May. In MAM, forest cover gains on CRO (Rain) result in moderate warming at high northern latitudes (above 60◦N) owed to a large negative in this region; here is smaller between GRA and forests during MAM which – combined with a larger positive f -- results in negligible warming in these regions. Below 60◦N forest cover gains mostly result in a net MAM cooling (Fig. S13 a-f) which is dominated by a large cooling signal from f during May that offsets a warming signal from during March and April. Differences are negligible in MAM for the DBFENF case (Fig. S13g), with the weak warming signal seen above 45◦N mostly dominated by a difference in surface albedo. For GRACRO (Rain), the cooling seen above 60◦N is attributed to a large positive . Figure S14 | JJA Ts . Mean Ts for June, July, and August. The JJA cooling seen for forest cover gain cases (Fig. S14 a-f) is attributed to a dominant signal from a large positive f that is greatest for the two GRA cases (Fig. S14 d&e). For the DBFENF case, a positive f signal in China, temperate S. America, and the southeast U.S. outweighs the negative resulting in a slight net JJA cooling. Cooling signals from the conversion of grassland to cropland (Fig. S14h) are strongest in the northern hemisphere, whereas rainfed to irrigated cropland results in mostly uniform cooling across all study regions during JJA (Fig. S14i). Figure S15 | SON Ts . Mean Ts for September, October, and November. Forest gains on croplands (Fig. S15 a&b) result in a slight SON warming in central Asia and northern Canada with no change for the rest of the boreal belt, whereas for gains on grasslands (Fig. S15 d&e) a stronger and more pronounced SON warming is found in these regions owed to a stronger negative signal. For all forest gain cases (Fig. S15 a-f) a net cooling in SON is found for temperate and tropical latitudes. Moderate SON warming for the DBFENF (Fig. S15h) and GRACRO (Rain) cases (Fig. S15h) is confined to the northern latitudes. Uncertainty Parameter uncertainty, local Ts Parameter uncertainty connected to the models employed to predict monthly f is evaluated with a measure of normalized error (NE) that expresses deviations in the annual Ts as a percentage of the original Ts (Fig. 2 of main article) after changing model parameters: NE ( f ) 100 T ( f f SE ) T ( f ) T ( f )1 (S2) where T ( f f SE ) is the annual mean temperature response computed with plus/minus a standard error in f ’s model parameters. Increases in f model parameters increases f for all land cover types and vice versa. The effect of increases expressed in terms of NE (Eq. (S2)) is illustrated in Fig. S16. In general, positive NEs equate to less cooling if the sign of the original Ts is negative and additional warming if the original sign is positive. Negative NEs equate additional cooling if the sign of the original Ts is negative and less warming if the original sign is positive. Figure S16 | Normalized Error, T ( f f SE ) . Normalized error, or the change in annual Ts expressed as a percentage of the original Ts due to a one stand error (one sigma) increase in f model parameter values. Latitude band means of normalized error are shown below each panel (in %) with the absolute normalized error show in parentheses (also in %). For all forest gain cases (Fig. S16 a-f), increases to f model parameters have little effect on Ts . For the DBFENF case, increases in f result in additional warming in parts of China, the midwestern U.S., central Europe, Fennoscandia, and S. America (Fig. S16g). Increases in f ’s parameters would result in suppressed warming in the southeastern U.S., central Asia, and the Mediterranean region. Most of the uncertainty for the GRACRO (Rain) case (Fig. S16h) is found in the tropics where f parameter increases result in both weakened (red areas) and enhanced (blue areas) cooling although the general NE trend here is negative (i.e., enhanced cooling). Largest uncertainty is found for the CRO (Rain)CRO (Irr.) case (Fig. S16i) at high latitudes where the NE is 31% for the 45-75N zone which equates to suppressed cooling. The effect of decreases in f ’s parameters measured in terms of NE is illustrated in Fig. S17. As for increases, parameter decreases result in negligible NE for the forest gain cases (Fig. S17 a-f). For DBFENF (Fig. S17g), NE spatial patterns and magnitudes are similar to the increasing parameter case (Fig. S16g), where the largest NE is found in the midwestern U.S., temperate S. America, China, and Europe. Figure S17 | Normalized error, T ( f f SE ) . Normalized error, or the change in annual Ts expressed as a percentage of the original Ts due to a one stand error (one sigma) decrease in f model parameter values. Latitude band means of normalized error are shown below each panel (in %) with the absolute normalized error show in parentheses (also in %). For GRACRO (Rain), parameter decreases result in a mostly positive NE trend in the tropics – or weakened cooling. As for parameter increases, f parameter decreases also results in large positive net NE at northern latitudes (45-75◦N) for the CRO (Rain)CRO (Irr.) case (Fig. S17i) – or a weakened cooling. Here, however, a non-negligible NE is found for the tropics where the decreases to f ’s parameter values equates to additional cooling. Parameter uncertainty, local G Similar to f , we compute the NE linked to the one-sigma confidence bounds (66%) connected to the models used to estimate monthly G. Error connected to G propagates to Ts indirectly through error associated with predictions of f (i.e., G is part of a predictor variable) and directly through its role as a system variable in the surface energy balance model. Figure S18 | Normalized error, T (G GSE ) Normalized error, or the change in annual Ts expressed as a percentage of the original Ts due to a one stand error (one sigma) increase in the parameters of the models employed to predict G . Latitude band means of normalized error are shown below each panel (in %) with the absolute normalized error show in parentheses (also in %). However, relative to the uncertainty connected to f , the uncertainty connected G tends to play a more negligible role in influencing Ts judging by the NEs of Figures S18 & S19 relative to S16 & S17. Figure S19 | Normalized error, T (G GSE ) . Normalized error, or the change in annual Ts expressed as a percentage of the original Ts due to a one stand error (one sigma) decrease in the parameters of the models employed to predict G . Latitude band means of normalized error are shown below each panel (in %) with the absolute normalized error show in parentheses (also in %). Linearization of surface outwelling longwave radiation The formulation of f involves a linearization of the surface upwelling longwave radiation term sTs4 which can lead to biased predictions22,23. To gauge the magnitude of this bias we evaluate a fictitious LCMC case, finding that bias is slightly negative when f is less than 1, switching to positive at around 1.25 and thereafter remaining positive and increasing in magnitude as illustrated in Figure S20. Figure S20 | Ts model bias. Illustration of model bias connected to the linearization of the upwelling surface longwave radiation flux. At f = 2 the normalized bias is 18%, becoming 36% at f = 3. For the nine LCMC cases considered in our analysis, the largest bias connected to the linearization of sTs4 likely occurred in the “GRAENF” case which had the largest f . For this case, the global annual mean f was 1.8, implying a mean annual normalized prediction bias of ~15%. Local Ts from historical LCMC Actual Ts from net gains or losses in forest cover on (or at the expense of) croplands and grasslands during the 1951-2010 period (Fig. 4 a&d) were computed using maps of historical land cover change reconstructions24 based on the ISAM-HYDE dataset24 (accessed at: https://gis.ncdc.noaa.gov/geoportal/catalog/search/resource/details.page?id=gov.noaa.ncdc:C0 0814 ). Seven primary and seven secondary forest cover types were aggregated into a single Forests cover type. Croplands comprised the aggregate of “C3 Cropland” and “C4 Cropland” covers, while Grasslands comprised the aggregate of both “C3/C4 Grassland/Steppe” and “C3/C4 Pastureland” covers. The net 1951-2010 change is represented as the percentage of forest cover gain within each 1◦ x 1◦ pixel on either Croplands or Grasslands, as shown in Figure S21. The fraction gained/lost in each grid cell is then multiplied by the potential local Ts for that grid cell and conversion type (gain vs. loss). Figure S21 | Reconstructed forest cover gain and CO2 Ts over the 1951-2010 period. Spatial patterns in the response by surface radiometric temperature Ts to historical late-20th century CO2 radiative forcing (top panel), and reconstructed forest cover gains on grasslands (“GRA”; middle) and croplands (“CRO”; bottom). The Ts attributable to CO2 is based on a combination of output from HadGEM-ES – a state of the art earth system model25 – and historical radiative forcing reconstructions for CO2 and WMGHGs26. The HadGEM-ES simulation followed the CMIP5 design protocol27 for WMGHG over the 20th century (simulation “historicalGHG_r1i1p1,” accessed via the Earth System Grid Federation data portal (https://pcmdi.llnl.gov/projects/esgf-llnl/ )). Ts is the difference in simulated mean Ts between the 1934-1959 and 1989-2005 period – or 1.31 K for the global mean. This value is higher than the observed global mean air temperature change ( Ta ) of 0.9 K reported in ref.28 over the 1951-2010 record, which is not unexpected given the difference in metric. Attribution to CO2 is then done by multiplying Ts by the ratio of the reconstructed CO2 to total reconstructed WMGHG radiative forcings over the same 1951-2010 period 26 – or 1.13/1.92 Wm-2. This result is presented in Figure S21 and used in the normalization calculation presented as Figure 4 of the main article. Additional FLUXNET site detail Table S5 provides an overview of the FLUXNET sites comprising our final in-situ dataset. Additional acknowledgements are provided in Table S6. Table S5 | FLUXNET site names and Principle Investigators Site Name IGBP Principle Investigators ENF ENF Derek Eamus, James Cleverly Hank Margolis CA-SF1 CA-SF2 ENF ENF CH-Dav ENF Bily Kriz – Mountains Lackenberg Beskidy CZ-BK1 ENF Andrew Black Andrew Black, Alan Barr, Harry McCaughey Werner Eugster, Lukas Hörtnagi, Nina Buchmann, Sabina Keller Marian Pavelka, Radek Czerny DE-Lkb ENF Oberbarenburg Tharandt – Station Hyytiala Lavarone Renon/Ritten DE-Obe Anchor DE-Tha ENF ENF Alice Springs Eastern Old Spruce SK-1977 Fire SK-1989 Fire Short Name AU-ASM Black CA-Qfo Davos – Seehorn Forest FY-Hyy IT-Lav IT-Ren ENF ENF ENF Rainer Steinbrecher, Matthias Mauder, Elisabeth Eckart, Hans Schmid, Burkhard Beudert Christian Bernhofer, J. Gruenwald Christian Bernhofer, Barbara Köstner, Thomas Grünwald Timo Vesala, Ivan Mammarella, Pasi Kolari Damiano Gianelle, Matteo Sottocornola Stefano Minerbi, Leonardo Montagnani San Rossore 2 IT-SR2 ENF San Rossore IT-SRo Loobos NL-Loo Fedorovskoje – drained RU-Fyo spruce Zotino RU-Zot GLEES US-GLE ENF ENF ENF Metolius Intermediate US-Me2 Pine Niwot Ridge US-NR1 Wetzstein DE-Wet ENF Le Bray FR-LBr ENF Yatir Norunda IL-Yat SE-Nor ENF ENF Hainich DE-Hai DBF Soroe – Lille Bogeskov Castel D’Asso 1 DK-Sor IT-CA1 DBF DBF Castel D’Asso 3 IT-CA3 DBF Collelongo – Selva Piana IT-Col DBF Ispra ABC-IS IT-Isp DBF Roccarespampani 1 IT-Ro1 DBF Roccarespampani 2 IT-Ro2 DBF Morgan Forest Monroe ENF ENF ENF ENF State US-MMS DBF University of Michigan US-UMB Biological Station DBF Willow Creek US-WCr DBF Mongo Missouri Ozark ZM-Mon US-MOz DBF DBF Alessandro Cescatti, Carsten Grüning, Ignacio Goded, Olga Pokorska Alessandro Cescatti, Carsten Grüning Eddy Moors, Jan Elbers, Wilma Jans Andrej Varlagin, Juliya Kurbatova Corinna Rebmann William Massman, Linda Joyce, Anna Schoettle, John Frank, Jose Negron Beverly Law, Larry Mahrt, Dean Vickers, Christoph Thomas, Chad Hanson Peter Blanken, Russ Monson Corinna Rebmann, Olaf Kolle, Werner Kutsch Denis Loustau, Nathalie Jarosz, Jean-Marc Bonnefond Dan Yakir, Eyal Rotenberg Anders Lindroth, Harry Lankreijer, Fredrik Lagergren Alexander Knohl, Olaf Kolle, Lukas Siebicke, Matthias Herbst Kim Pilegaard, Andreas Ibrom Dario Papale, Nicola Arriga, Simone Sabbatini, Michele Tomassucci, Alessio Boschi Giorgio Matteucci, Dario Papale, Nicola Arriga, Simone Sabbatini, Michele Tomassucci Giorgio Matteucci, Giuseppe Scarascia, Francesco Mazzenga Alessandro Cescatti, Eleonora Canfora, Carsten Gruening, Ignacio Goded, Olga Pokorska Dario Papale, Paolo Stefani, Nicola Arriga, Luca Belelli, Raffaele Casa, Domenico Vitale Dario Papale, Paolo Stefani, Nicola Arriga, Luca Belelli, Raffaele Casa, Simone Sabbatini, Michele Tomassucci, Alessio Boschi, Claudia Consalvo Danilo Dragoni, Sue Grimmond, J.C. Randolph, Hans Peter Schmid, Hong-Bing Su Peter Curtis, Christoph Vogel, Hans Peter Schmid, Damiano Gianelle, Christopher Gough, Gil Bohrer Paul Bolstad, Bruce Cook, Kenneth Davis, Weiguo Wang, Ankur Desai Werner Kutsch, Lutz Merbold Lianhong Gu, Paul Hanson, Tilden Meyers, Stan Wullschleger, Stephen Pallardy, Bai Cumberland Plains Robson Creek Tumbarumba Wallaby Creek Whroo Wombat EBF EBF EBF EBF EBF EBF Santarem-Km83 AU-Cum AU-Rob AU-Tum AU-Wac AU-Whr AUWom BR-Sa3 Puechabon FR-Pue EBF Guyaflux Neustift/Stubai Valley Daly River Pasture Emerald Riggs Creek Sturt Plains GF-Guy AT-Neu AU-DaP AU-Emr AU-Rig AU-Stp EBF GRA GRA GRA GRA GRA Chamau Grassland CH-Cha GRA Fruebuel Grassland CH-Fru GRA Önsingen 1 Changling Bily Kriz Grassland Grillenburg Monte Bondone CH-Oe1 CN-Cng CZ-BK2 DE-Gri IT-MBo GRA GRA GRA GRA GRA Torgnon IT-Tor GRA Horstermeer NL-Hor GRA Woodward Switchgrass 1 US-AR1 GRA Woodward Switchgrass 2 US-AR2 GRA Santa Rita Grassland Vaira Ranch US-SRG US-Var GRA GRA Walnut Gulch Kendall Grasslands Ghanzi Grassland Vall d’Alinya Dripsey Amplero US-Wkg GRA BW-Ghg ES-VDA IE-Dri IT-Amp GRA GRA GRA GRA Cabauw NL-Ca1 GRA EBF Yang Elise Pendall Michael Liddell Eva van Gorsel Jason Beringer Jason Beringer Jason Beringer, Anne Griebel Mike Goulden, Humberto da Rocha, Scott Miller Richard Joffre, Serge Rambal, Jean-Marc Ourcival, Jean-Marc Limousin, Karim Piquemal Damien Bonal, Eleonora Canfora Georg Wohlfahrt Jason Beringer, Lindsay Hutley Ivan Schroder, Steve Zegelin Jason Beringer Jason Beringer, Lindsay Hutley, Shaun Cunningham Nina Buchmann, Kathrin Fuchs, Sabina Keller, Lutz Merbold, Lukas Hörtnagl Nina Buchmann, Lutz Merbold, Sabina Keller, Lukas Hörtnagl Christoph Ammann Gang Dong Marian Pavelka, Radek Czerny Christian Bernhofer, Thomas Grünwald Damiano Gianelle, Fondazione Mach, Barbara Marcolla, Matteo Sottocornola Edoardo Cremonese, Eleonora Canfora, Mirco Migliavacca, Umberto Morradicella, Marta Galvagno Han Dolman, Luca Belelli, Johannes Hachmann, Ko Huissteden, You Wang Jan Elbers, James Bradford, Marc Fischer, Chris Zou Jan Elbers, James Bradford, Marc Fischer, Chris Zou Russell Scott Dennis Baldocchi, Ted Hehn, Nancy Kiang, Francesca Ponti, Jorge Curiel-Yuste, Siyan Ma Russell Scott Christopher Williams Arnaud Carrara, Cristina Gimeno Gerard Kiely, Paul Leahy, Nelius Foley Dario Papale, Paolo Stefani, Manuela Balzarolo Eddy Moors, Jan Elbers, Wilma Jans Mitra IV Tojal Brookings PT-Mi2 US-Bkg GRA GRA Fort Peck Goodwin Creek Yanco US-FPe US-Goo AU-Ync Lonzee BE-Lon Önsingen 2 CH-Oe2 GRA GRA CRO (Rain) CRO (Rain) CRO (Rain) Gebesee DE-Geb Klingenberg DE-Kli Grignon FR-Gri Castel d’Asso 2 IT-CA2 ARM Southern Great US-ARM Plains Mead – Rainfed Maize- US-Ne3 Soybean Langerak NL-Lan Lutjewad NL-Lut Molenweg NL-Mol Bondville US-Bo1 Borgo Cioffi IT-BCi Castellaro IT-Cas Mead – Irrigated US-Ne1 Continuous Maize Mead – Irrigated Maize- US-Ne2 Soybean Twitchell Corn US-Tw2 Twitchell Alfalfa US-Tw3 El Saler-Sueca ES-ES2 CRO (Rain) CRO (Rain) CRO (Rain) CRO (Rain) CRO (Rain) CRO (Rain) CRO (Rain) CRO (Rain) CRO (Rain) CRO (Rain) CRO (Irr.) CRO (Irr.) CRO (Irr.) CRO (Irr.) CRO (Irr.) CRO (Irr.) CRO (Irr.) Casimiro Pio Tilden Meyers, Tagir Gilmanov, Bruce Wylie Tilden Meyers Tilden Meyers Jeffrey Walker Bernard Heinesch, Anne Ligne, Tanguy Manise Nina Buchmann, Carmen Emmel, Werner Eugster, Sabina Keller, Lutz Merbold, Lukas Hörtnagl Antje Moffat, Olaf Kolle, Mathias Herbst, Corinna Rebmann Christian Bernhofer, Thomas Grünwald Pierre Cellier, Benjamin Loubet, Nicolas Mascher Dario Papale, Beniamino Gioli, Nicola Arriga, Simone Sabbatini, Michele Tomassucci, Alessio Boschi Marc Fischer, Dave Billesbach, Margaret Torn Shashi Verma, Andrew Suyker, Todd Schimelfenig Eddy Moors, Jan Elbers, Wilma Jans Eddy Moors, Jan Elbers, Wilma Jans Eddy Moors, Jan Elbers, Wilma Jans Tilden Meyers, Stephen Ogle,, Mark Heuer Enzo Magliulo, Paul Di Tommasi, Luca Vitale, Daniela Famulari, Anna Tedeschi Alessandro Cescatti, Carsten Grüning Shashi Verma, Andrew Suyker, Todd Schimelfenig Shashi Verma, Andrew Suyker, Todd Schimelfenig Dennis Baldocchi, Joe Verfaillie, Sara Knox, Laurie Koteen, Cove Sturtevant Dennis Baldocchi, Joe Verfaillie, Sara Knox, Laurie Koteen, Cove Sturtevant Arnaud Carrara, Maria Sanz Additional data citations or acknowledgements This work used eddy covariance data acquired and shared by the FLUXNET community, including these networks: AmeriFlux, AfriFlux, AsiaFlux, CarboAfrica, CarboEuropeIP, CarboItaly, CarboMont, ChinaFlux, Fluxnet-Canada, GreenGrass, ICOS, KoFlux, LBA, NECC, OzFlux-TERN, TCOS-Siberia, and USCCC. 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