Determining photosynthetic responses of forest species to elevated [CO2]: alternatives to FACE E. A Pinkard1,2*, C. L. Beadle1,2, D. S. Mendham1, J. Carter1 and M Glen1,2 5 1 CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems and CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Private Bag 12 Hobart 7000 Australia 10 2 Tasmanian Institute of Agricultural Research Private Bag 54 Hobart 7000 Australia 15 *corresponding author: Ph 61 3 62375656 Email [email protected] 1 20 Abstract Free air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments are considered the most reliable approach for quantifying our expectations of forest ecosystem responses to changing atmospheric CO2 concentrations [CO2]. Because very few Australian tree species have been studied in this way, or are likely to be 25 studied in the near future because of the high installation and maintenance costs of FACE, there are no clear answers to questions such as: (1) which species will be the winners in Australia’s natural forests and what are the implications for biodiversity and carbon (C) sequestration; and (2) which will be the most appropriate species or genotypes to ensure the sustainability of 30 Australia’s plantation forests. We examined possible experimental approaches that may provide insights into, and more rapid assessment of, responses to elevated [CO2]. Our main conclusions were: (1) better understanding the extent to which species are Climited could indicate when elevated [CO2] might be expected to increase 35 photosynthesis and biomass production. Plant tissue carbohydrate concentrations can be used to assess any C limitation. Consistently high levels of carbohydrates indicate that plants are not C limited, but rather that growth is determined by other limiting resources or by rates of cell development and expansion; (2) historical examination of forest responses to 40 increasing atmospheric [CO2] using stable isotopes in wood cores can provide clues as to which species may respond favourably to increasing [CO2], although it may remain difficult to distinguish between the environmental conditions under which favourable responses occurred. Undertaking stable isotope studies close to anthropogenic CO2 sources has the potential to 45 provide insights into how species may respond to the higher [CO2] that is predicted during this century; (3) by focusing on genetic and metabolomic regulation of source and sink activity, selection for greater biomass production under elevated [CO2] is possible. 50 Key words: sink limitation; stable isotopes; metabolomics; genetics; photosynthetic upregulation, elevated [CO2] 2 1. Introduction Forests are a major reservoir of terrestrial carbon (C) (Körner, 2003). Importantly, forests can provide long-term capacity for C sequestration and 55 storage, and this has raised their profile as a potential means of mitigating rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2]). Does elevated [CO2] affect the capacity of existing and newly-planted forests to store C? This question is becoming pertinent to forest managers who in making the right choices for sustaining timber yields, must at the same time consider increasingly stringent 60 requirements for conserving C, water yields and biodiversity in their forest estates. The amount of C stored in a forest is a function of rates of C assimilation, losses associated with respiration and leaching (Long et al., 2004b; Ainsworth and Long, 2005; Hyvonen et al., 2008), and allocation of C between mobile 65 pools and biomass (Körner, 2006; Millard et al., 2007). While increases in rates of C assimilation are frequently reported in response to elevated [CO2], they may be short-lived, particularly if resources other than CO2 are limiting growth (Ainsworth and Long, 2005). Modelling studies have suggested that elevated [CO2] may have little effect on forest growth rates and total biomass 70 where water or nutrient supplies are low (Oren et al., 2001; Nowak et al., 2004), and may influence the distribution of species in such a way that total biomass, or rates of biomass accumulation, are reduced (Li et al., 2003; Chiang et al., 2008). For example, Chiang et al. (2008) predicted that a transition from spruce-fir to deciduous forest in western Maine, USA, 75 associated with changing climate, would reduce total biomass by up to 12%. Australia has approximately 150M ha of natural forests and woodlands; 80% of the forested area is dominated by eucalypt species (Montreal Process Implementation Group for Australia, 2008). Australian eucalypts also dominate planted forests outside Australia, particularly in the tropics and subtropics; the 80 global area of plantation eucalypts is currently 19.5M ha (Iglesias & Wistermann, 2008). Australia has 2.0M ha of planted forest (Gavran and Parsons, 2009). A number of studies have examined the inter- and intraspecific rainfall and temperature requirements of Australian tree species (Booth and Pryor, 1991; Hughes et al., 1996; Booth and Jovanovic, 2005; 3 85 Costa e Silva et al., 2006) to predict where these species may grow as exotics. In contrast, there is very little understanding of Australian tree species responses to elevated [CO2], even though a lack of understanding of inter- and intra-specific variation in CO2 responses, and the influence of environment on these responses, have been identified as major impediments 90 to adaptive management in the plantation industry (Battaglia et al., 2009). Hence there is currently little information to assist forest managers in making decisions about: (1) Which species are best adapted to changing climates in natural forests and what the longer-term implications of species shifts are for forest 95 biomass and wood production; (2) Which species or genotypes would be most appropriate to ensure the sustainability of plantation forests under changing environments. A variety of experimental techniques are used to study the responses of trees to elevated [CO2]. The most common are open- and closed-top 100 chambers, branch bags in which only a part of the tree is exposed to elevated [CO2], free air CO2 enrichment (FACE), and natural CO2 vents (Saxe et al., 1998a). Elevated [CO2] experiments are high cost (Saxe et al., 1998), and have a number of technological issues that may limit their relevance to trees growing in situ (Ainsworth and Long, 2005). They are also generally restricted 105 to individual tree species rather than ecosystems, and to relatively short timeframes. In this review, we examine whether there might be alternative approaches to determine tree responses to elevated [CO2]. If there are, can they be used in conjunction with the techniques described above to improve our 110 understanding of species and ecosystem responses to rising [CO2], and to assist in making management decisions today that protect forest biodiversity and biomass production and the viability of the commercial forest industry into the future. First, we examine the approaches currently used to investigate responses of trees to elevated [CO2], and their relevance to forest 115 management. Second, we explore factors that influence a tree’s capacity for photosynthetic upregulation and increased growth and biomass under elevated [CO2]. We then discuss possible experimental approaches that may 4 provide insights into, and more rapid assessment of, responses to elevated [CO2]. While our focus is on Australian forests, the approaches described 120 have relevance more generally to forest ecosystem management. 2. Current experimental methodology for assessing tree responses to elevated [CO2] Current techniques for assessing responses to elevated [CO2] can be 125 broadly divided into two categories, increasing the [CO2] (1) around a leaf, leaves, branches, whole plant(s) or trees in a sealed or semi-sealed chamber; and (2) around numerous individuals over a large area in a FACE environment or near natural CO2 vents. Table 1 summarises the advantages and disadvantages of each. In the first category, glasshouses and growth 130 chambers are useful for minimising the effects of all variables except the one in question, but they are otherwise totally artificial environments and not suited to the study of the effects of elevated [CO2] on forests in situ (Figure 1, Table 1). The approach is suited to examining mechanisms associated with physiological responses to elevated [CO2], and provides a valuable adjunct to 135 FACE experiments. It will generally not be suited to broad screening of species and ecosystem responses to elevated [CO2]. Experiments with open-top chambers have been used extensively in the field, especially in agricultural crops, but these are also subject to shortcomings. The microenvironment within chambers is often markedly 140 different to the surrounding environment, bringing into question the relevance of results to the real world. For example, Whitehead et al. (1995) found large open-topped chambers had air temperatures up to 4.3°C and air saturation deficit up to 0.8 kPa greater than ambient at peak irradiance; mean light transmittance was 74-81% of ambient and there was a 13-21% higher 145 proportion of diffuse irradiation in the chambers than outside. Open-top chambers also effectively remove any wind effect, which can reduce rainfall interception and change plant-atmosphere coupling. Collectively, these shortcomings may reduce the value of any measured responses to elevated [CO2] as they can potentially have a physiological effect equivalent to doubling 5 150 of ambient [CO2] (Long et al. 2004). In addition, it is recognised that results from chambers cannot adequately represent the behaviour of mature and highly diverse forest ecosystems, although they have been shown to adequately represent the climatic conditions of understorey species in humid tropical forests (Würth et al., 1998). This is because chambers can only 155 physically enclose a limited number of small trees, and thus prevent interactions between trees, including the tight coupling with the atmosphere referred to above. Whilst chambers have been particularly suited for studying younger trees, the responses of small plants to elevated [CO2] are likely to be quite different to those of older trees for a range of reasons: younger trees 160 often have different photosynthetic and allocation responses to environment (James and Bell, 2000), and there may be less competition for water, nutrients, and light (Drake et al. 1997). Older trees also have slower rates of growth and their physiological responses to elevated [CO2] may be less plastic than those of faster-growing juvenile forms. 165 FACE overcomes many of the disadvantages associated with chamber and glasshouse experiments, enabling long-term in situ study at the tree and ecosystem scale (Table 1). FACE provides a detailed understanding of physiological processes at tree and ecosystem scales, and accounts for interactions between soil, atmosphere and ecosystem. It remains the method 170 of choice for elevated [CO2] studies. Early FACE systems started operation in 1989 (Lewin et al., 1994), and there are now over 30 installations listed on the Oak Ridge National Laboratory website global list (http://public.ornl.gov/face/ global_face.shtml). FACE systems in forests typically surround a circular area of 25-30 m diameter with vertically elevated pipes which emit CO2 at a 175 controlled rate to keep the area within the circle at a specified atmospheric [CO2]. Delivery systems for CO2 need to be very sophisticated and instantaneously account for variable wind speed across the experiment and also vertical air movements within the forest canopy. FACE systems continue to service invaluable experiments for 180 understanding plant and ecosystem responses to elevated [CO2]. However FACE brings its own set of challenges for understanding effects of elevated [CO2] on ecosystem function. The first is that of cost. A fully functioning FACE 6 system represents a very significant investment in infrastructure. Raison et al. (2007) estimated that a single installation would have an establishment cost of 185 up to AU$0.5M, and ongoing annual CO2 and maintenance costs of AU$1.8$4M. Location of FACE systems also needs to take into account accessibility for installation, maintenance, and CO2 delivery, and availability of services such as electricity and accommodation for permanent staffing. A FACE installation probably needs to run for at least 10 years (Raison et al. 2007) to 190 gain an adequate understanding of changes to carbon, water and nutrient cycling in forest systems. These logistical and time constraints prohibit large numbers of sites and replication within sites, so any installation needs to be highly targeted and can necessarily only represent a very small proportion of the world’s forest ecosystems. Problems with lack of replication can present 195 an issue with detecting small but important changes in physiological function (Rogers et al. 2006). A range of scientific issues associated with FACE systems is also recognised. For example, the relatively abrupt increase in [CO2] imposed by FACE experiments may result in a different plant response to that following a 200 more gradual change in atmospheric [CO2]. In a modelling analysis, Luo and Reynolds (1999) showed that a step change in [CO2] increased N demand by 4.1 g N m-2 y-1, and this contrasted with 0.6-1.7 g N m-2 y-1 increase in N demand under a slowly increasing [CO2] scenario. The difference was due to the increased system cycling of N in the latter case. 205 Short term variation in [CO2] may also present problems in interpreting outcomes. McLeod and Long (1999) showed that one-minute averaged [CO2] typically varied by ±10% for 90% of the time in arable-cropping and ±20% for 90% of the time in forest FACE systems . These measurements are usually taken from the centre of the ring, and there is likely to be much greater 210 variation closer to the edge, where CO2 may be less well mixed with surrounding air. The effect of short-scale temporal variation in [CO2] is uncertain but potentially of concern because of the non-linear response of stomata to atmospheric [CO2]. A third issue that has become apparent with FACE systems is that influx of 215 CO2 can lead to a break-up of an inversion layer under still conditions, which 7 maintains a warmer temperature compared to outside the FACE ring structure (McLeod and Long, 1999). This effect can be reduced by turning off the CO2 injection at night when an inversion layer is likely to form, but the decrease in [CO2] may then affect rates of dark respiration (Drake et al. 1997). McLeod 220 and Long (1999) also identified a “FACE Island” effect; two phenomena are described. First, within the island or high [CO2] ring, the difference in the surrounding humidity leads to a gradient across the ring in the use of site resources. Second, the island may differentially attract or repel insects and fungi. 225 So while chamber and FACE experiments have shown us that trees and forest ecosystems can be highly responsive to changes in [CO2], it is also clear that there is a need for alternative experimental techniques to assess the effects of elevated [CO2]. This is particularly because these current systems lack capacity to cover a large number of ecosystems and replication within 230 ecosystems. 3. Photosynthetic up-regulation and acclimation under elevated CO2 3.1. Fundamentals Carbon dioxide and water are the substrates that, through the light and 235 dark reactions of photosynthesis, are combined into dry mass. Thus [CO2] can be a major factor limiting photosynthesis (Hall and Rao, 1992). Stomata regulate the diffusion of CO2 into leaves; stomata can respond sensitively to [CO2] as part of a proportionate response to the CO2 requirement for photosynthesis; increasing concentrations are therefore associated with a 240 closing response and vice-versa. Thus elevated [CO2] is anticipated to increase or up-regulate photosynthesis, decrease stomatal conductance and increase intrinsic water-use efficiency i.e. the ratio of leaf photosynthesis to stomatal conductance (Long et al., 2004). Many factors other than [CO2] determine photosynthetic rate, and the law of limiting factors (von Liebig, 245 1840) will ultimately determine photosynthetic responses to [CO2]; i.e. more than one limiting factor may be involved (Bloom et al., 1985; Chapin and Shaver, 1985). In Australian environments, marked dry seasons, extended 8 periods of drought and poor soils can dominate patterns and rates of growth of most vegetation types, at least during part of their life cycle. 250 3.2. What is photosynthetic up-regulation? Up-regulation of photosynthesis refers to a significant increase in the lightsaturated rate of photosynthesis (Amax), the rate of photosynthesis under ambient light (A), and/or diurnal photosynthesis (A’) (Ainsworth and Rogers, 255 2007). Elevated [CO2] up-regulates photosynthesis by increasing the carboxylation rate, Vc, of ribulose bisphosphate carboxylase (Rubisco) and competitively inhibiting the oxygenation of ribulose bisphosphate (RuBP), thereby reducing photorespiration (Drake et al., 1997; Long et al., 2004). Elevated [CO2] is also associated with the expression of several other 260 changes that affect photosynthesis. The common observation of reduced stomatal conductance, gs, will tend to dampen the extent to which any upregulation is expressed at a leaf-scale, but may conserve water such that stand-scale responses are positive (Ainsworth and Rogers, 2007). 265 3.3. What is photosynthetic acclimation or down-regulation to elevated [CO2]? Photosynthetic acclimation refers to longer-term adaptive changes in the photosynthetic responses to external stimuli that reduce the net level of the initial response; acclimation is also referred to as down-regulation. Acclimation is commonly observed, and arises from the plant’s need to 270 balance all resources that are allocated to photosynthetic processes, including the external [CO2] (Sage, 1990; Gunderson and Wullschleger, 1994). For elevated [CO2], acclimation is mechanistically linked to decreased maximum apparent carboxylation velocity (Vc,max) and reduced investment in Rubisco (Rogers and Humphries, 2000), and an associated reduction in N content; 275 these changes are linked to a decrease in control of Amax by Vc,max but an increase by Jmax, that is by the rate of regeneration of RuBP (Long and Drake, 1992). There is also an increase in starch and sugar content. 9 3.4. Photosynthetic response of forests to elevated [CO2]: Evidence from 280 FACE Ainsworth and Long (2005) conducted a meta-analysis of published data from 12 FACE experiments, five experiments of which had one or more tree species (Table 1). This demonstrated increased rates of photosynthesis across a range of species growing at elevated [CO2]. For the 12 tree species 285 across these five sites, there was a 47% increase in Amax with growth under elevated [CO2], which was a larger increase than for other functional types; however diurnal carbon assimilation (A’) increased less than for some other functional types (29%; Table 2). That Amax of tree species can be strongly enhanced by elevated [CO2] has been noted in studies of trees in enclosures 290 (Medlyn et al. 1999). However, maximum carboxylation rate (Vc,max) was decreased by 6% only and there was no change in Jmax, and as a result only a small decrease (3%) in the ratio of Vc,max/Jmax. There was a 10% reduction in foliar N on a mass basis but none on an area basis. Elevated [CO2] was associated with a 16% reduction in stomatal conductance and as a result 295 there was a very large increase in intrinsic water-use efficiency (74%). In properly interpreting the functional responses summarised in Table 2, it must be noted that these are averages and that there were large differences between FACE sites and between species examined. At two sites examining Pinus taeda and understorey hardwood species in North Carolina, and 300 Populus alba in Italy, there was no significant change in Vc,max. There was some evidence of significant increases in Jmax and Vc,max/Jmax but the response was variable. Down-regulation of Vc,max where it did occur, was associated with small sink capacity (Hovenden, 2003) or distance from active sinks (Takeuchi et al., 2001). Such acclimation may be related to low N 305 supply that restricts sink development (Stitt and Krapp, 1999) as well as the specific decrease in Rubisco that appears to occur at elevated [CO2] (Ainsworth and Long, 2005). Thus it is likely that marked down-regulation of photosynthesis in response to elevated [CO2] will feature prominently in many Australian environments. 310 10 3.5. The mechanics of the response All forest tree species are C3 and their schematic response to increasing [CO2] has two phases (Long and Hallgren, 1985). In the first phase there is a marked and linear increase in Amax with increasing [CO2] that occurs between 315 0 and around 300-to-350 µmol mol-1 i.e. somewhat below current ambient levels of [CO2] (380 µmol mol-1). The relationship then becomes curvi-linear to a greater or lesser extent, with saturating [CO2] for Amax occurring around 1000 µmol mol-1. The slope of the linear phase is associated with the efficiency of carboxylation or activity of Rubisco measured as Vc or Vc,max; 320 beyond the point of inflection, the flat part of the curve represents limitations by the supply of RuBP measured as the maximum rate of RuBP regeneration (Jmax). Thus increases in [CO2] that have been occurring for around the last 50 years and that will occur into the future have less relative influence per unit increase in [CO2]. At very low light flux density, elevated [CO2] has the 325 potential to reduce the light compensation point and permit plants to grow in greater shade (Körner, 2006). 4. Does photosynthetic up-regulation translate into increased tree growth? 330 In the short term, rising [CO2] increases photosynthesis in many of the woody species that have been studied (Ainsworth and Long, 2005; Körner, 2006), which has the potential to yield significant increases in rates of biomass accumulation. Ainsworth and Long (2005) found that allocation of dry mass to above-ground parts in forest FACE experiments increased 28% on 335 average; this includes a greater allocation to woody components (Table 2). In general, larger responses in growth, biomass and leaf area index to elevated [CO2] have been observed in trees than other functional types (Curtis and Wang, 1998; Saxe et al., 1998; Ainsworth and Long, 2005) However there is often a poor correlation between photosynthetic capacity 340 measured as Amax and total biomass production (Gifford and Evans, 1981; Wardlaw, 1990; Oren et al., 2001). For example, Schimel (2006) found in a meta analysis of agricultural crops that high-yielding cultivars often have lower 11 Amax than the lower-yielding parent material. While this does not exclude the possibility that Amax of individual species may respond positively to elevated 345 [CO2] and produce more total biomass (Table 2), it suggests that allocation of biomass after the C has been fixed, as well as its turnover, will ultimately determine how any benefit is delivered. Hence, while increases in both net primary productivity (NPP, biomass accumulation per unit time) and total biomass have been reported in elevated [CO2] studies (Saxe et al., 1998; 350 Nowak et al., 2004; Ainsworth and Long, 2005; Hyvonen et al., 2008), a 1:1 translation of photosynthetic responses to growth responses cannot be assumed, and responses can vary from no change to large increases in growth (Körner, 2006) (Table 2). Some of the reasons why photosynthetic upregulation may not translate into increased growth include: 355 1. Increased exudates of non structural carbohydrates (NSCs). Emissions of NSC from leaves, root exudates, and transfer to symbionts can account for significant losses of C (Millard et al., 2007a). For example, studies of ectomycorrhizal associations with conifers have demonstrated that up to 30% of total C assimilated can be transferred to symbiotic fungi (Sodenstrom, 2002). These 360 sorts of emissions have been found to increase under elevated [CO2] in some species (Millard et al. 2007). 2. Increased allocation of NSCs to organs with high rates of turnover, such as fine roots and leaves. Under elevated [CO2], patterns of biomass allocation may change to promote leaf and fine root 365 development (Hyvonen et al., 2008), both of which constitute temporary stores of biomass. 3. Age-related decline in responses to elevated [CO2]. Trees can capitalise most rapidly on elevated [CO2] when they are in the 370 exponential growth phase prior to canopy closure (Idso, 1999; Körner, 2006), and hence an initial large increase in biomass is commonly reported, followed by a rapid decline once canopy closure has occurred (Figure 2, from Idso, 1999). This response pattern is supported by long-term dendrochronological studies of 375 trees growing near natural CO2 vents compared to those growing 12 under ambient [CO2], where increased stem diameter growth associated with elevated [CO2] was largest when trees were young (Hattenschwiler et al., 1997). When atmospheric [CO2] was experimentally increased in mature forest stands (~100 years old) in Switzerland, no effect was measured on stem basal area increment 380 after four years of increased CO2 exposure (Asshoff et al., 2006). 4. Competition for resources. Whether post-canopy closure forests exhibit an increase in biomass at elevated [CO2] depends at least in part on whether resources other than C are limiting growth. 385 Experiments with maturing pines found that increases in biomass associated with elevated [CO2] were related to nitrogen availability, with little or no increase in biomass when N was limiting but large increases when nutrients were added (Oren et al., 2001). Elevated [CO2] may accelerate the development of nutrient limitations 390 because of more rapid initial growth rates (Saxe et al., 1998). A faster depletion of available water also can reduce C assimilation and offset the benefits of elevated [CO2], despite improvements in leaf-level water-use efficiency (Messinger et al., 2006; Hyvonen et al., 2008) and whole-tree water use (Cech et al., 2003) that have 395 been observed. Tree species differ in their inherent rates of growth and the times during their life cycle when their highest growth rates occur. Because of this, elevated [CO2] is likely to favour more responsive taxa in mixed forest systems. However, other factors, like soil type, may ultimately determine 400 which species become dominant (Körner, 2006). In an analysis of carbon limitation in trees at several different scales, Millard et al. (2007) came to a similar conclusion to Körner (2006) and stated “that the growth of trees is not carbon-limited, with the key to understanding future responses to climate change being turnover of soil organic matter and 405 nutrient cycling”. 13 5. How can we determine tree responses to elevated [CO2]: alternatives to FACE 5.1. Dendrochronology and stable isotopes 410 Dendrochronology: Dendrochronological studies assess longer-term responses of trees to historical increases in ambient [CO2] (recently reviewed by Huang et al., 2007). Growth rates recorded in the annual rings are functionally ascribed to tree age- or size-related growth trends, climate records, and disturbance factors, including changes in [CO2]. Advantages of 415 this approach include that the effects of increased [CO2] on growth of older trees may be examined (Hattenschwiler et al., 1997a; Voelker et al., 2006), in situ measurements are possible, and there is potential for high levels of replication (Table 1, Figure 1). The method is well-developed, although further development is required in order to use it to investigate responses to 420 elevated [CO2]. An important disadvantage of the method is that historical changes in [CO2] may not reflect future changes, meaning that interpolative power may be limited. While enhanced growth rates from tree-ring analysis during the latter half of the 20th century are correlated with the rise in atmospheric [CO2] (e.g. 425 (LaMarche et al., 1984; Voelker et al., 2006; Knapp and Soule, 2008; Leal et al., 2008), there is the inevitable difficulty of distinguishing responses to elevated [CO2] from those to other environmental variables that increase growth. To provide a clearer separation, dendrochronological studies have been made on trees growing adjacent to natural CO2 springs, mostly in the 430 form of CO2-emitting vents at former volcanic sites (Paoletti et al., 2004). These sites, in principle, allow spatial study of the long-term impacts of [CO2] gradients, although the vents may alter the soil and air temperatures and pH which also affect tree growth (Paoletti et al., 2004). In addition, these springs are often associated with saline groundwater and H2S emissions which are 435 both toxic to plants (Van Gardingen et al., 1997). These effects and fluctuating [CO2] (Van Gardingen et al., 1997) may explain why some papers report increased growth (Miglietta et al., 1993; Hattenschwiler et al., 1997b) and others no differences in growth rates of trees adjacent to springs compared to trees at control sites (Körner and Miglietta, 1994; Tognetti et al., 2000). 14 440 Carbon- (C-) isotope chronologies: Several studies link tree ring width sequences with measurements of C-isotope ratios to assess how rates of photosynthesis (A) and stomatal conductance (gs) have responded to historical increases in atmospheric [CO2], and in association with CO2 springs 445 or industrial CO2 sources ( Miglietta et al., 1996;Dusquesnay et al., 1998; Feng, 1998, 1999; Tognetti and Penuelas, 2003; Saurer et al., 2004; Betson et al., 2007; Liu et al., 2007). Changes in A and/or gs can lead to changes in the ratio of intercellular (Ci) to ambient (Ca) [CO2]; Ci:Ca is linearly related to the C-isotope ratio in leaves (Farquhar et al., 1982). Therefore, 450 measurements of the C-isotope ratio in plant tissue can inform photosynthetic and stomatal functioning over various time scales, which can then be related to changes in atmospheric [CO2]. Carbon in CO2 has two possible stable isotopes, 12C and 13C. 12C is by far the most prevalent, with a natural abundance of 98.89% compared with 1.11% 455 for 13C. Discrimination occurs against the heavier 13CO2 during diffusion into stomata and during fixation of CO2 by the enzyme Rubisco, so that plant tissue is depleted in 13C relative to the atmosphere (Ehleringer and Rundel, 1989). The ratio of stable isotopes is expressed in delta notation, δ, measured in parts per thousand (‰), and relative to an internationally accepted standard 460 sample (PeeDee belemnite for 13C/12C). A more negative δ13C value indicates greater discrimination against CO2 with the 13C isotope; the values for C3 plants range from -20 to -35‰ (Ehleringer, 1989). The ratio Ci:Ca, and hence δ13C, is determined by the balance between CO2 supply, measured through gs, and CO2 assimilation measured as A. In general terms, high gs relative to 465 Amax results in high Ci:Ca and more negative δ13C (lower instantaneous wateruse efficiency), while low gs relative to Amax results in low Ci:Ca and less negative δ13C (higher instantaneous water-use efficiency). Combining C- and oxygen(O-) isotope ratios to separate stomatal and direct 470 photosynthetic responses to environment: Although changes in C- isotope ratios can reflect changes in Ci:Ca, this provides limited information on the 15 extent to which Ci is dependent on stomatal control (supply of C), or changes in photosynthetic capacity (demand for C). Concurrent measurements of Cisotope ratio and the ratio of 16O (the more abundant oxygen isotope) to 18O 475 (the less abundant isotope) can help to separate these processes, as δ18O in plant material is influenced by gs, but not by Amax (Farquhar and Lloyd, 1993). The negative relationship between gs and δ18O can provide insight into the relative contributions that stomatal and non-stomatal control make to variations in Ci:Ca as evidenced by δ13C (Farquhar and Lloyd, 1993). A 480 positive relationship between δ18O and δ13C indicates that gs is driving both the variation in ambient:intercellular vapour pressure (Ea:Ei) and Ci:Ca (Saurer et al., 1997; Scheidegger et al., 2000; Barbour et al., 2002); a negative or no correlation between δ18O and δ13C, indicates that changes in Ci:Ca are driven more by biochemical effects (Yakir and Israeli, 1995; Scheidegger et al., 485 2000). The relationship between δ13C and δ18O in tree rings has been used to assess tree responses to elevated [CO2] and their relative impact on stomatal conductance and photosynthesis (Saurer et al., 2003). Measurements of 14C in wood of Quercus ilex trees were used to assess the relative uptake of C 490 from a CO2 spring in Italy and atmospheric CO2. The responses to elevated [CO2] experienced by trees close to the spring were compared with control trees that experienced ambient [CO2]. Trees near the spring had lower δ13C and water-use efficiency than controls, but there were no differences in δ18O; Saurer et al. (2003) concluded that gs was unaffected by elevated [CO2] and 495 that increased Ci:Ca was caused by reduced photosynthetic capacity. The authors suggested this down-regulation of photosynthesis might have been associated with a poor sink strength and low soil nitrogen availability at the CO2 spring site. Can a similar approach be used to investigate physiological responses to 500 historical changes in atmospheric [CO2]? Saurer et al. (2008) noted that increases in atmospheric [CO2] in the last 30 years of the 20th century were associated with divergence in relationships between tree ring δ18O and δ13C and other climatic variables, causing problems for climate reconstruction. They noted that corrections had been proposed for the CO2 fertilization effect, 16 505 but that these would be species-specific. Trends in tree ring δ18O and δ13C could be used to infer how particular species have responded to historical increases in [CO2]. While there are a number of methodological disadvantages associated with interpretation of results from dendrochronological and stable isotope 510 studies, including appropriate timescales (Leavitt and Long, 1982, 1986; Gessler et al., 2009), changing isotopic signals of the source (Thorburn and Walker, 1993; McCarroll and Loader, 2004) and phenological effects on isotopic composition (Bert et al., 1997; Schafer et al., 2000; McCarroll and Loader, 2004), these techniques have the advantage of enabling in situ 515 assessment of large numbers of samples, and are applicable to mature trees and ecosystems. The methods are well understood and developed, but further development will be required if they were to be applied routinely in the context of elevated [CO2]. There is scope to use the methods in association with anthropogenic CO2 sources to explore likely response of species to [CO2] 520 higher than ambient. 5.2 Screening for indicator genes/metabolites Recent advances in genomic sequencing (e.g. full genome sequence for Populus trichocarpa, Tuskan et al. 2006; draft genome sequence for 525 Eucalyptus grandis, http://eucalyptusdb.bi.up.ac.za/) have prompted discussion about the potential to breed or engineer trees to improve forest productivity under elevated [CO2]. Gene expression influences C uptake and utilization, biomass allocation, plant defence strategies and stress responses (Cseke et al. 2009), which may influence how a species responds to elevated 530 [CO2] and determine whether photosynthetic upregulation translates into increased growth. Micro-array studies have revealed altered levels of expression in large numbers of genes in response to an increase of atmospheric [CO2] in Arabidopsis thaliana (Li et al., 2006), soybean (Ainsworth et al., 2006), sugarcane (De Souza et al., 2008), rice (Fukayama et 535 al., 2009) and poplar (Taylor et al., 2005). Genetic and phenotypic responses 17 vary both within a species (Li et al., 2006; Watkinson et al., 2008; Cseke et al., 2009) and among species (Li et al., 1999). Transcription patterns in leaves of two Populus tremuloides clones known to have contrasting growth responses to elevated [CO2] were examined by 540 Cseke et al.(Cseke et al., 2009). While both clones had similar physiological response to elevated [CO2] in terms of photosynthesis, stomatal conductance and leaf area index, one grew much faster than the other. Total Rubisco was significantly reduced in the non-responsive clone, but was not significantly different in the responsive clone. The responsive clone had delayed leaf 545 senescence, resulting in a growing period 2 weeks longer than the unresponsive clone, and accumulated ~50% more stem biomass than the unresponsive clone. Micro-array and real-time RT-PCR analysis of transcript abundance indicated that the responsive clone appeared to partition C into active stress responses associated with carbohydrate and starch 550 biosynthesis, with subsequent enhanced growth; the unresponsive clone increased passive defences such as lignin, phenylpropanoid and thickened cell walls. Of the 183 genes that were differentially expressed, there was little overlap between the two clones. The high level of intraspecific variation in response to elevated [CO2] indicates that there is potential to select genetic 555 material with greater biomass yields under elevated [CO2], at least for shortrotation tree crops. Downregulation of photosynthesis associated with acclimation to elevated [CO2] has been linked to a reduced sink demand for assimilate (Ainsworth et al. 2004). Genetic control of sink regulation of photosynthesis has not been 560 studied extensively in trees, but studies with other functional plant types may offer some insights. For spinach, wheat and Beta vulgaris (sugarbeet), sink regulation has been studied by feeding detached leaves (Krapp et al., 1991; Kilb et al., 1996; Lee and Daie, 1997) or intact plants (Jones et al., 1996) with sugars. These experiments demonstrated reduced transcription of nuclear 565 and chlorophyll genes, reductions in Rubisco protein, chlorophyll and the D1 protein of PSII, and increased leaf levels of sugars and starches. There is also some evidence to indicate that hexose sugars initiate the signalling pathway that leads to reduced expression of photosynthetic genes (Smith and Stitt, 18 2007). The key message is that similar responses have been observed in 570 wheat (Zhang et al., 2008), rice (Gesch et al., 1998) and several other plant species, including trees (Van Oosten and Besford, 1996), in response to elevated [CO2]. Direct comparisons of the effects of sugar feeding and elevated atmospheric [CO2] on transcription of several nuclear and chloroplast genes involved in photosynthesis have been undertaken in tomato (Van 575 Oosten and Besford, 1994). This study demonstrated parallel responses to sugar feeding and elevated [CO2] in levels of transcripts for the Rubisco small subunit, Rubisco activase, two proteins associated respectively with PSI and PSII, and ADP glucose pyrophosphorylase. Parallel micro-array and metabolomic studies directly comparing the effects of sugar feeding with those 580 of elevated atmospheric [CO2] would allow a more robust examination of the potential to use sugar feeding as a surrogate for elevated [CO2] studies. Taking into account intraspecific variation in [CO2] response, the use of clonal plants would be advisable for this type of study. Screening for indicator genes/metabolites has the potential to provide insights into the control of sink 585 regulation in trees. The approach has application for in situ assessment of both small and large trees, and there is scope for high levels of replication and rapid assessment (Table 1). A disadvantage is that processes are poorly understood for trees, requiring methodological development before the approach can be routinely applied. 590 5.3. Carbon limitation Körner (2003) postulated that tree growth is not limited by C supply but rather by intrinsic developmental rates and supply of water, nutrients and light. In support of this there is considerable evidence that trees store large 595 quantities of C as mobile non-soluble carbohydrates (NSC’s), and that even in times of peak sink activity, such as bud burst in deciduous species, these stores are rarely depleted (Körner, 2006; Millard et al., 2007a). Concentrations of NSC’s in plant tissues can be considered a measure of C storage or supply for growth, that is, sink demand for C (Handa et al., 2005; 600 Sala and Hoch, 2009). A reduction in NSC concentrations indicates that either C demand exceeds supply or that both source and sink activity are low 19 (Körner, 2003). A steady, high NSC concentration suggests that photosynthesis fully meets, or exceeds, the C requirements for growth (Li et al., 2002; Handa et al., 2005). 605 Sink limitation can be expected to become more important as source strength increases under elevated [CO2] (Uddling et al., 2008). A large sink capacity has been identified as critical for maximising plant production in elevated [CO2] environments (Drake et al., 1997b; McCormick et al., 2008), and significant feedbacks to source activity due to sink limitation can be 610 expected for plants with low sink strength. Ainsworth et al. (2004) demonstrated acclimation of photosynthesis at elevated [CO2] in Glycine max genetically modified to have low sink strength. Better understanding sink limitations in tree species may assist in identifying which species are likely to increase rates of biomass accumulation 615 in response to increasing atmospheric [CO2] and how this is modified by growing conditions (Körner, 2006). Concentration of NSC as a measure of the degree to which growth is C-limited (Körner, 2003) has been used to examine growth limitations at tree-lines (Li et al., 2002; Handa et al., 2005), and age-related growth decline in Pinus ponderosa (Sala and Hoch, 2009). 620 Understanding the temporal dynamics of NSC’s, particularly in roots and stems, provides an approach for examining sink limitation on a whole tree basis that can be applied in situ to trees at varying stages of development and in varying growing conditions (Körner, 2003). If a plant is sink-limited under current atmospheric [CO2], as defined by high carbohydrate concentrations in 625 stems and roots, then it is unlikely to respond positively to elevated [CO2] unless other resources currently limiting growth become more freely available, for example through improved water-use efficiency. Thus a measure of sink limitation now offers an approach for screening the potential for growth responses to increasing [CO2]. While this does not necessarily provide direct 630 evidence of actual growth responses to increased availability of C assimilates (Körner, 2003), it provides a method for rapid screening of plants for potential responses to elevated [CO2] (Table 1). The methods are well-developed (Table 1, Figure 1), but further development will be required in order to interpret spatial and temporal variation in carbohydrate concentrations in the 20 635 context of likely tree responses to elevated [CO2] and to determine inter- and intra-specific variation in carbohydrate concentrations indicative of C limitation. 6. Conclusions 640 While literature suggests that many species may benefit from elevated [CO2] in terms of increased photosynthetic rates and water-use efficiency (Long et al., 2004; Hyvonen et al., 2007), large increases in rates of biomass accumulation and total biomass may not occur in mature forests in Australia where growth is primarily limited by water and nutrient supply. Tree species 645 are likely to benefit most from elevated [CO2] during early growth and prior to canopy closure when water and nutrient supplies may be less limiting to growth. Commercial plantations may also benefit most from elevated [CO2] in locations where other resources are not limiting growth. It is likely that experiments examining responses to elevated [CO2] will 650 continue to focus on FACE and similar methods, although in many places such as Australia costs have largely ruled out the use of FACE for forest ecosystem studies. Our study has highlighted a number of experimental approaches that can be used in conjunction with elevated [CO2] studies; these may provide more rapid indications of likely effects of increasing [CO2] on 655 forest growth and biomass, thereby assisting forest managers in making decisions today that bring about desirable outcomes in the future: (1) Identify inter-and intra-specific variation in carbohydrate concentrations in the context of where and when C, as opposed to other resources such as water and nutrients, are likely to limit growth. Trees with high carbohydrate 660 concentrations are unlikely to be limited by C supply and hence are unlikely to respond favourably to increasing CO2 availability. This will help to separate the winners from the losers under future climates from a biodiversity perspective in native forests, and to provide indications of appropriate genotype x environment matching to maximise productivity in commercial 665 plantations. Körner (2003) suggested that examining carbohydrate dynamics of wood and roots will help to provide insights into how to make correct 21 choices. The same approach has been used previously to examine limitations to growth in extreme environments (Li et al., 2002; Handa et al., 2005). (2) Use stable isotopes in wood cores to examine the history of forest 670 responses to increasing atmospheric [CO2] to provide clues as to which species may respond favourably to increasing [CO2]. If they have exhibited more rapid growth with increasing [CO2] in the past, then this suggests that they may respond favourably as [CO2] continues to rise. However, teasing apart the environmental conditions under which favourable responses occur 675 remains a challenge. Undertaking stable isotope studies close to anthropogenic CO2 sources has the potential to provide insights into how species may respond to the higher [CO2] that are predicted over the next century. The methodologies are well-established. (3) Select for greater biomass production under elevated [CO2] by focusing 680 on genetic and metabolomic regulation of source and sink activity. The method offers potential for rapid screening of genotypes for improved production under elevated [CO2]. While this approach has been used to some extent in crop species, the methods are poorly developed for trees. Recent advances in mapping tree genomes and in technology and capacity for rapid 685 screening of physiological traits and metabolites in young (seedling) trees (http://www.plantphenomics.org.au) both improve our capacity to undertake these kinds of studies. Feeding of sugars to intact plants may be a useful surrogate for elevated [CO2] that would allow selection of genotypes most appropriate for future [CO2] environments, and warrants further attention. 690 We argue that expenditure of a fraction of the money invested in FACE and elevated [CO2] experiments could make a large contribution to the further development of the above methods and provide useful information on environmental constraints to growth and production of forest ecosystems relevant to understanding responses to elevated [CO2] and forest responses 695 to environment more generally. The key advantages of the methods are that they allow for high replication, can be performed in situ, and can provide information pertinent to large as well as small trees. 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A meta-analysis of tree-FACE effects on light-saturated CO2 uptake (Amax), diurnal carbon assimilation (A’), stomatal conductance (gs), instantaneous water-use efficiency (Amax/gs), maximum carboxylation rate 1035 (Vc,max), maximum rate of electron transport (Jmax), ratio of Vc,max/Jmax, N content per area or mass, sugar content, starch content, plant height, leafarea index, specific leaf area, total yield and above-ground dry matter production. The effect size is the ratio of performance in elevated to atmospheric [CO2] (from Appendix 2, (Ainsworth and Long, 2005b) 1040 Figure 1. Comparison of existing and potential methods for examining tree and ecosystem responses to elevated [CO2], in terms of ecosystem coverage and the degree of realism provided by the system (e.g. in terms of whether in situ measurements are possible; whether the method can be used on small and large trees; whether the method allows for coupling 1045 between environment and ecosystem). The current state of methodological development of each method is also presented. Figure 2. Per cent enhancement of standing tree biomass over time produced by an approximate 300 ppm increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration from ambient (from (Idso, 1999)). Data for loblolly pine (Pinus 1050 taeda), evergreen oak (Quercus ilex), and sour orange (Citrus aurantium) trees growing out-of-doors and rooted in the ground were included in the original study 31 Table 1. Summary of the advantages and disadvantages of a range of methods for assessing tree responses to elevated [CO2] 1055 Method Questions that can be addressed Advantages Disadvantages Method development required? FACE Detailed understanding of physiological processes at tree and ecosystem scales Can include ecosystems Expensive to establish and maintain Well-established methods In situ measurements are possible Generally low replication Interactions between soil, atmosphere and ecosystem Good coupling to environment Most studies focused on young and not mature forests Long timeframe for understanding Growth responses Some methodological issues eg effects of step versus gradual change in [CO2] Natural CO2 vents Detailed understanding of physiological processes at tree and ecosystem scales Interactions between soil, atmosphere and ecosystem In situ measurements are possible Issues with effects of non-CO2 emissions on ecosystem processes Can include mature forest systems Limitations in selecting controls Good coupling to environment Growth responses to elevated [CO2] Whole tree chambers/glassho use studies Detailed understanding of physiological processes at tree scale Dendrochronology and stable isotope Historical growth responses to increasing atmospheric [CO2] Long timeframe for understanding Low replication Good control of all variables Artificial environment Rapid results Small plants only: will results be relevant to mature forests and the surrounding ecosystem? Effects on older trees can be examined Difficulty in interpreting results due to high levels of variability Growth responses to elevated [CO2] 32 Well established methods Well established methods Data collection and interpretation requires Method studies Questions that can be addressed Advantages Disadvantages Interaction of growth and environment Historical changes can be examined to assess possible future responses Isotopic composition influenced by factors other than CO2 responses (eg phenology, changing isotopic signal of source, other environmental factors influencing the tree response) Photosynthetic drivers of growth responses to elevated [CO2] In situ measurements are possible Rapid results Large numbers of sites/replications possible Indicator genes and metabolites Historical studies may not reflect future changes in [CO2] Studies near CO2 vents or anthropogenic CO2 sources may be influenced by factors other than CO2 such as other gases and salinity Genetic control of sink regulation under elevated [CO2] In situ measurements are possible Processes poorly understood for trees Potential to breed or engineer trees more productive under elevated [CO2] Rapid results Requires broad screening within ecosystems Potential to use sugar feeding as a surrogate for elevated [CO2]studies Provides fundamental understanding of controllers of photosynthetic responses to environment, relevant more widely than to eCO2 Method development required? further development to deal with factors such as within and between-ring variability, effects of changing isotopic signals from source, phenological effects on isotopic composition Requires development for trees Effects on older trees can be examined Large numbers of sites/replications possible Carbon limitation Identification of species likely to increase rates of biomass In situ measurements are possible 33 Does not provide direct evidence of eCO2 responses Methods are welldeveloped; interpretation of Method Questions that can be addressed accumulation in response to elevated [CO2] through better understanding of sink limitation Role of other environmental constraints on growth responses to elevated [CO2] Advantages Disadvantages Rapid results Requires broad screening within ecosystems Effects on older trees can be examined Provides fundamental understanding of limitations to productivity relevant more widely than to eCO2 Large numbers of sites/replications possible 34 Method development required? results requires further development. 1060 Table 2. A meta-analysis of tree-FACE effects on light-saturated CO2 uptake (Amax), diurnal carbon assimilation (A’), stomatal conductance (gs), instantaneous water-use efficiency (Amax/gs), maximum carboxylation rate (Vc,max), maximum rate of electron transport (Jmax), ratio of Vc,max/Jmax, N content per area or mass, sugar content, starch content, plant height, leafarea index, specific leaf area, total yield and above-ground dry matter production. The effect is the ratio of performance in elevated to atmospheric [CO2] (from Appendix 2, Ainsworth and Long, 2005b) 1065 Variable df No of No of Sites Effect size (95% CI) species Amax 126 12 5 1.47 (1.43-1.52) A’ 19 5 2 1.29 (1.18-1.41) gs 78 6 3 0.84 (0.79-0.89) Amax/gs 26 4 3 1.74 (1.60-1.89) Vc,max 71 11 4 0.94 (0.89-0.99) Jmax 57 9 4 1.00 (0.96-1.04) Vc,max/Jmax 61 11 4 0.97 (0.95-0.99) N (mass/area) 36 3 3 1.02 (0.98-1.07) N (mass/mass) 56 6 3 0.90 (0.87-0.93) Sugar (mass/area) 10 2 2 1.11 (0.90-1.34) Starch (mass/area) 10 2 2 1.37 (1.1-1.72) Height 44 4 2 1.06 (1.04-1.09) Leaf-area index 15 6 3 1.21 (1.04-1.40) Specific leaf area 56 5 4 0.92 (0.89-0.95) DM production 9 7 2 1.28 (1.06-1.54) above-ground 35 Higher C-limitation Dendrochronology + stable isotopes Genomics and metabolomics Lower Relative numbers of systems that can be explored Ecosystem coverage 1070 e[CO2] using chamber or glasshouse FACE Realism (e.g. in situ measurements possible; appropriate for small and large trees; coupling between environment and ecosystem) Extent of methodological development Methodology is well developed Methodology is well developed but requires further development to understand climate change effects Methodology at early stage of development 1075 Figure 1. Comparison of existing and potential methods for examining tree and ecosystem responses to elevated [CO2], in terms of ecosystem coverage and the degree of realism provided by the system (e.g. in terms of whether in situ measurements are possible; whether the method can be used on small and large trees; whether the method allows for coupling between environment and ecosystem). The current state of methodological development of each method is also presented. 1080 36 Enhancement of standing biomass (% difference over control) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 10 20 30 40 Duration of CO2 enrichment (years) 1085 Figure 2. Per cent enhancement of standing tree biomass over time produced by an approximate 300 ppm increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration from ambient (from Idso, 1999). Data for loblolly pine (Pinus taeda), evergreen oak (Quercus ilex), and sour orange (Citrus aurantium) trees growing out-of-doors and rooted in the ground were included in the original study. 1090 37 38
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