Assumptions for unemployment benefits in Coresia

Additional data and assumptions for UI
The Labour Force Survey of Coresia reports that among those declared unemployed,
69% used to work before on an average over the period 2010-2012.
The LFS distinguished the unemployed between the two following categories:
(1) Active unemployed refers to those who did not work during the reference week
but were available for work and actively looking for work.
(2) Non active unemployment includes the following categories: those who
a) did not look for work because they believed no work is available or not qualified;
b) might otherwise seek employment due to illness or bad weather;
c) are waiting for job applications result; and
d) had looked for work before the reference week.
The LFS report that 57.4% were actively looking for a job on an average over the
period 2010-2012, whether they used to work before or not.
The LFS also shows that 5.2% of those becoming unemployed have found a job
within the first 7 days after losing their employment. Finally, the LFS indicates that
18% of unemployed workers have left their jobs voluntarily, without good reason.
In 2012, the Department of Social Security reported that 14.56 million employees
(or 39% of the EAP) were registered under the three branches of the Social Security
System: Employment Injury Schemes, Invalidity Pension Scheme and Sickness and
Maternity Scheme. It is assumed that the same ratio will apply to those unemployed.
The average monthly wage of insured, as reported by DSS administrative data in
2012, is COD 10,043. Similarly, the average monthly wage of those who have left SSS
during the last three years (2010-2012) is COD 8,650.
Same data collected by DSS show that only 39.7% of job leavers below age 55
(retirement age) had 12 or more months of contributions over the 3 years from
2010 to 2012.
The following table, extracted from DSS data, provides the distribution of the
qualified individuals according to how long they have worked in the last 24 months.
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Contribution
months
12
16
20
24
Total
Qualified
claimants
%
45
23
18
14
Benefit period
(in months)
Average
unemployment period
(in months)
3
4
5
6
1.46
1.81
2.19
2.46
100
It is assumed of the proportion of active unemployed and those unemployed who
used to work before, as well as those who are losing their job involuntarily and find
a job within 7 days, remain constant over the project period.
On the other hand, it is expected that the coverage of SSS will constantly increase at
the annual rate of 2.5% over the 10 next years.
Additional data and assumptions for PWP
The last Census of Coresia recorded that on an average, there were 5.2 people in
every household in the country. The rural population may be assumed to grow at
the same rate as the general population.
While the “Law on minimum wages (No. 684)”, 2013 stipulates a minimum wage
rate of COD 300 per day across Coresia, it is unclear when the wage rate will be
revised to take inflation into account. The government is discussing possible
regulations to keep the minimum wage relevant for the average Coresian worker.
Surveys conducted over the past few months to monitor the performance of READI
have shown that the administrative costs and staff salaries account for 15 per cent
of the cost of benefits. The expense of purchasing building and construction
materials, limited machinery, seeds and fertilisers as well as the cost of contracting
technical experts and supervisors account for 35 per cent of the cost of benefits. In
case of the social work component of READI, a very minimal amount is spent on
purchasing materials and the expense of training the community care workers is
usually included in technical supervision.
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READI utilised COD 85.9 billion of government funds in 2012. It was started as a taxfunded scheme, but as the number of beneficiaries kept increasing and it became
difficult to allocate more funds from the national budget, READI was heavily
subsidised by donor grants in 2010 and 2012. In 2012, many critics voiced their
opposition to the scheme.
Though the government of Coresia is presently satisfied with the outreach of READI,
they feel that the programme cost as a percentage of national GDP is very high. They
have hired consultants to conduct a cost estimate of implementing READI over the
next 5 years, at the current coverage levels.
Additional data and assumptions for training and job counselling
It may be assumed that each JobCoresiaNow receive as an average 350-500 visitors
per day. On an average, each JobCoresiaNow is staffed with 5 full-time staff and 10
part-time staff members, working in half-day shifts. They are paid at a similar rate
as the national average wage of Coresia. The government wishes to promote skill
training, job counselling, job matching and placement on the lines of the CISA TAJ
programme which provides vocational training for up to 6 months, and also
coordinates with JobsCoresiaNow to facilitate recruitment.
In 2012, 20 per cent of all workers are expected to undertake a skill development or
vocational training programme. To spur the national level effort in enhancing skill
development, the take-up rate among the target group is assumed to grow from 25
per cent in 2014 to 100 per cent in 2017.
Beneficiaries who fall below the national poverty line may be provided with a
subsistence allowance to pay for their food and travel expenses, and those of their
dependants, during the training period. This amount may be fixed at around half the
minimum wage rate.
The administrative cost for a programme of this nature is around 15 per cent of the
cost of training programme.
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Additional data and assumptions for mobility allowance
It is assumed that on an average, every year, 1,000 UI beneficiaries will receive
mobility assistance, over the next 10 years.
Additional data and assumptions for entrepreneurship support part of the
Active Employment Policy targeting the Youth (AEPY)
Data of the Microfinance and Enterprises Development show that on an average
submitted entrepreneurship project amounts to COD 200,000. It is assumed this
amount also corresponds to the average amount of entrepreneurship proposals also
submitted by young applicants (15-24 years old).
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