Households in the dark
Mapping electricity disconnections in South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales and
South East Queensland
Report by the St Vincent de Paul Society and Alviss Consulting | May 2016
St Vincent de Paul Society
www.vinnies.org.au
Alviss Consulting Pty Ltd
www.alvissconsulting.com
© St Vincent de Paul Society
This work is copyright. Apart from any use permitted under the Copyright Act 1968
(Ctw), no parts may be adapted, reproduced, copied, stored, distributed, published or
put to commercial use without prior written permission from the St Vincent de Paul
Society.
Cover image: Shutterstock
Contact: Gavin Dufty
Manager, Social Policy Unit Victoria
St Vincent de Paul Society
Phone: (03) 98955816 or 0439 357 129
1
Disclaimers
Whilewehavetakengreatcaretoensureaccuracyoftheinformationprovidedinthis
report,wedonotacceptanylegalresponsibilityforerrorsorinaccuracies.TheStVincentde
PaulSocietyandAlvissConsultingPtyLtddonotacceptliabilityforanyactiontakenbased
ontheinformationprovidedinthisreportorforanyloss,economicorotherwise,suffered
asaresultofrelianceontheinformationpresented.
ThisprojectwasfundedbyEnergyConsumersAustralia
(www.energyconsumersaustralia.com.au)aspartofitsgrantsprocessforconsumer
advocacyprojectsandresearchprojectsforthebenefitofconsumersofelectricityand
naturalgas.Theviewsexpressedinthisdocumentdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsof
EnergyConsumersAustralia.
Acknowledgements
TheStVincentdePaulSocietyisgratefulforthefundingprovidedbyEnergyConsumers
Australia(ECA)toundertakethisproject.
Wealsowishtoacknowledgethesubstantialin-kindcontributionprovidedbyAGLinterms
ofcompilingandanonymisingthedataset,assistingwithdataqueriesandbroadersystem
information,aswellasdiscussingfindingsandprovidinginvaluablefeedback.AGLhas
participatedinthisprojecttoassistthedevelopmentofpublicpolicyandbuildgreater
understandingofenergyaffordabilityissues.
WenotethatwhilewehavediscussedfindingswithAGLandwelcomedtheirfeedback,AGL
hasnotinfluencedtheresearchquestionsorhadanyeditorialinputintothisreport.
Finally,wewishtothanktheEnergyNetworkAssociation(ENA)fortheirgreateffortin
sourcingdatafromtheelectricitydistributionbusinesses.Whilewedidnotobtaina
distributiondatasetthatwasgeographicallybroadenoughtobeusedinthisstudy,weare
gratefulfortheENA’ssupportofthisprojectandthetimetherelevantdistribution
businessesprovidedtocompilethedata.
2
ExecutiveSummaryandRecommendations
Thisprojecthasanalysedandmappedapproximately200,000electricitydisconnectionsfor
non-paymentraisedbyAGLinSouthAustralia,Victoria,NSWandSouthEastQueensland
betweenJuly2012andJuly2015.
Asthepurposeofthisprojectwastoexplorewhen,whereandwhyhouseholdsare
disconnectedfromelectricity,ratherthanasingleretailer’sdisconnectionpractices,the
datasethasbeennormalisedbasedonAGL’smarketshare.Thisstudythereforeshows
when,whereandwhyhouseholdsaredisconnectedifallretailersdisconnectatsimilarrates
toAGL.Furthermore,inanalysingthepostcodeswiththehighestdisconnectionnumbers,
wehavenormalisedthedatabasedonthepostcodes’populationsize.
Whileelectricitydisconnectionsoccurinmostpostcodes,therearesignificantdifferences
betweenthefrequenciesofdisconnectionbetweenpostcodes.Furthermore,thereare
significantinter-statedifferencesintermsofthetypeandlocationofpostcodesthathave
highdisconnectionnumbers.
Wehaveidentified6broadcategoriesofpostcodetypesthatarelikelytohavehigher
disconnectionnumbers.Thesearepostcodesthathaveahigherproportionof:
1. Lowincomefamiliesexperiencinghousingstress
2. Medianincomefamiliesexperiencinghousingstress
3. Lowtomedianincomefamilieswithlowerhousingcostsbutgreatertransportcosts
4. Lowincomesmallhouseholds(couples,solepersonsandsoleparents)experiencing
housingstress
5. Smallhouseholdswithmedianincomeexperiencinghousingstress
6. Smallhouseholdswithlowtomedianincomewithlowerhousingcostsbutgreater
transportcosts
Byallocatingthe‘top50’disconnectionpostcodesineachjurisdictiontooneofthese
groups,wewereabletoidentifyinterstatedifferencesintermsofwhere,andwho,are
mostatriskofdisconnection.
TheSouthAustralianpostcodeswithhighdisconnectionnumberswerepredominantly
group1,2,4and6postcodes.Thismeansthatfamiliesexperiencinghousingstressaswell
assmallerhouseholds(couples,solepersonsandsoleparents)eitherexperiencinghousing
stressorlocatedinruralandregionalSouthAustralia(wherehousingislessexpensivebut
transportcostsarehigherandincomesarelower)arethegroupsthatexperiencethe
highestdisconnectionlevelsinthisstate.
InVictoria,the‘top50’postcodesweredistributedmoreevenlyacrossallsixpostcode
types.Group3wastheonlygroupthatwassomewhatlesspredominantinthisstate.
InNSW,however,33outof50postcodesaregroup3or6postcodes,meaningthatfamilies
aswellassmallerhouseholdslocatedinruralandregionalNSWexperiencethehighest
disconnectionlevels.Thisdoesnotmeanthatlowincomefamiliesexperiencinghousing
3
stressinSydneyarenotatriskofdisconnections,itsimplytellsusthatwhenitcomestothe
locationofthepostcodeswiththehighestdisconnectionnumbersinNSW,lowincome
householdsoutsideSydneyhavehigherdisconnectionrates.Thiscouldbeasignofmore
entrenchedpovertyinNSWcomparedtotheotherjurisdictionsincludedinthisanalysis.
InthesmallerandmoredenselypopulatedareaofSouthEastQueensland,ontheother
hand,postcodeswithhighdisconnectionnumberswerepredominantlygroup1,2and4
postcodes.Thismeansthatfamiliesexperiencinghousingstressaswellaslowincome
smallerhouseholds(couples,solepersonsandsoleparents)experiencinghousingstress,are
athighestriskofdisconnectioninSouthEastQueensland.
Thatsaid,alljurisdictionsdidhave‘top50’postcodesinallsixgroupsbutitshowsthatthe
mostdominantgroupsdifferbetweenjurisdictions.
Thisreporthasalsoexaminedpostcodeswhereahighnumberofhouseholds(basedon
customernumber)havebeendisconnectedmultipletimesoverthethreeyearperiod.
VictorianandNSWpostcodesdominatethislistandinVictoriathereappearstobeastrong
linkbetweentherolloutofsmartmeters(whichenabledisconnectionstobedoneremotely
insteadofonasitevisit)andanincreaseinthedisconnectioncompletionrate,and
thereforealsoanincreaseinhouseholdsbeingdisconnectedmultipletimesoverathree
yearperiod.
Surprisingly,wewerenotabletodetectstronglinksbetweenhigherbillsanddisconnection
numbers.ApartfrominSouthEastQueensland,wheredisconnectionsappeartohave
increasedinresponsetosignificantpriceincreases,theevidenceintheotherjurisdictionsis
inconclusive.Residentialelectricitypricesincreasedsignificantlyin2011and2012inNSW,
VictoriaandSouthAustralia,sincethen,however,theincreaseshavebeenmoremoderate
aswellasincludedsomedecreases.1Thismayexplainwhyweareunabletodetectaclear
relationbetweenpriceincreasesanddisconnectionsbasedonpricechangesoccurring
betweenJanuary2013andJuly2015.
Ourhypothesisisstillthathigherbillsduetopriceincreasesand/orconsumptionwill
increasethenumberofcustomersexperiencingenergyrelatedfinancialhardshipand
ultimatelydisconnections.Datashowingwhenandwheredisconnectionsoccur,however,is
notbestsuitedtotestthishypothesis.Therearetoomanyfactorsinfluencingwhen
disconnectionsoccur(includingretailpractices,distributorpracticesandregulatory
requirements)tobeabletoestablishaclearandconsistentrelationshipbetweenprice
changesanddisconnections.
Whilethisstudyshowsthatcommunitieswithahighdegreeofsocialdisadvantageare
morelikelytohavehighdisconnectionnumbers,italsohighlightsthattherearehouseholds
athighriskofexperiencingdisconnectioninareaswithahighlevelofsocialadvantage.
1
TheStVincentdePaulSocietyhasanalysedpricechangesinallNEMjurisdictionsfrom2009to2015through
itsongoingTariff-Trackingproject.Seewww.vinnies.org.au/energyformoreinformationabouttheTariffTrackingprojectandchangestoresidentialenergyprices.BothSouthAustralia(in2013)andNSW(in2014)
introducedlowertransitionalratesinrelationtotheintroductionofretailpriceregulationandalljurisdictions
experiencedpricedeductionsduetotherepealofthecarbontax.
4
Whiletheaimwouldalwaysbethatnohouseholdsgetdisconnectedfromelectricitydueto
aninabilitytopay,weacknowledgethatassistanceandmeasurestoreducethenumberof
disconnectionsoccurringneedtobebettertargetedinordertoreachhouseholdsmostat
risk,aswellasthosemostatriskofon-goingfinancialhardshipandmultipledisconnections.
Ourrecommendationsarethusdirectedatenergypolicymakersandenergyregulatorsat
bothstateandCommonwealthlevel,aswellassocialpolicymeasuresthataddressthe
underlyingpovertythatisamajorcauseofdisconnection.
Recommendations
1.Recommendationsdirectedatstategovernments
1.1Concessionarrangements
ThegovernmentsinSouthAustralian,NSWandQueenslandshouldintroducepercentage
basedelectricityconcessions.Thiswillprovideproportionalsupportbasedontheelectricity
costsfacedbyconsumers.
Withtheincreasingtakeupofsolar,batteriesandotherenergymanagementtechnologiesa
movetopercentage-basedconcessionsiscrucialtoensurethatconcessionsarebasedon
theactualbillpaid.
TheQueenslandGovernmentshouldextendeligibilityforenergyconcessionstoHealthCare
Card(HCC)holders.
1.2Reliefschemes
TheVictorianGovernmentshouldsimplifytheapplicationandapprovalprocessofthe
UtilityReliefGrant(URG)scheme.Theschemecurrentlyhasaslowandburdensome
applicationprocessandimprovingthisprocessiscrucialtolowerdisconnectionratesin
Victoria.
TheNSWGovernmentshouldimmediatelyreviewitsEnergyAccountsPaymentAssistance
(EAPA)scheme.RelyingondeliveryofEAPAvouchersthroughcommunitywelfareagencies
limitsthescheme’scoverageandmoreassistanceinruralandregionalNSWisclearly
neededtoreducedisconnectionnumbersinthesecommunities.
1.3Stateoperatedenergysavingsprograms
ThegovernmentsinSouthAustralian,NSW,VictoriaandQueenslandshouldtargettheir
energyefficiencyprogramstoareasthatneedassistancewithenergybills.Theseprograms
shouldinpartfocusonpostcodeswithlargerhouseholds(i.e.highconsumptionfamilies)
andhighdisconnectionnumbers.
1.4Energyefficiencystandards
Stategovernmentsshoulddevelopandrequireminimumenergyefficiencystandardsforall
publicandprivaterentalproperties.
5
1.5Stategovernmentfundedand/ordeliverededucationprograms
ThegovernmentsinSouthAustralian,NSW,VictoriaandQueenslandshouldensurethat
educationprogramsadequatelyinformhouseholdsaboutconcessionarrangements,access
toenergyretailerhardshipprograms,reliefschemesandotherrelevantsupportmeasures.
Thisisparticularlyimportantinareaswithahighproportionofsmartmetersasremote
disconnectionsclearlyimpactondisconnectioncompletionratesandthefrequencywith
whichhouseholdsexperiencemultipledisconnections.
Educationprogramsshouldalsotargetdisadvantagedcommunitiestoenablehouseholdsto
activelyandconfidentlyparticipateintheenergyretailmarket(includingbeingabletoshop
aroundforabetterdeal).
2.RecommendationsdirectedattheCommonwealthGovernment
2.1Incomesecurity
Energypolicyandregulatorymeasuresalonecannotpreventhouseholdsfrombeing
disconnected.Increasedsocialsecuritypaymentsarenecessarytohelphouseholdsoutof
poverty.Alargeproportionofthepostcodeswithhighdisconnectionnumbersareareas
withyoungerhouseholds,includingyoungcouplefamiliesandsoleparents.Weurgethe
GovernmenttoincreaseincomesupportpaymentssuchasNewstartandtheYouth
Allowance.
2.2Energyefficiencyandrenewableenergypolicies
TheCommonwealthGovernmentshouldusetheirenergyefficiencyandrenewableenergy
policiestoassistcommunitieswithhighdisconnectionnumbersreducetheirenergycosts.
2.3Carbonemissionreductionpolicies
IndevelopingpoliciestoreducecarbonemissionstheCommonwealthGovernmentshould
assesstheimpactthesepolicieswillhaveonhouseholdsinareaswithhighdisconnection
numbers,anddevelopappropriatecompensationmeasuresasrequired.
3.Recommendationsdirectedatregulatorswithresponsibilitiesintheenergyretail
market
3.1Monitoringandreporting
Energyregulatorsshouldcollectinformationandreportoncustomernumbersdisconnected
multipletimesbythesameretailer.
3.2ImprovementstotheNationalEnergyCustomerFramework(NECF)
TheNECFshouldbeamendedtoensurethatretailersmustofferpaymentarrangementsto
allhouseholdsratherthanjustthosetheretailerhasassessedtobeinfinancialhardship.
6
3.3Disadvantagedcustomersinthe‘new’energymarket
Themarketledrolloutofsmartmeterswillincreasethecompletionrateofdisconnections
andresultinmorecustomersbeingmorefrequentlydisconnected.Inordertoprovide
retailers,aswellasmeterdataserviceproviders,withastrongincentivetofollowdue
processespriortodisconnectingcustomers,theNECFshouldbeamendedtoincludea
WrongfulDisconnectionPaymentthatmarketparticipants,foundnottohavefollowedthe
requiredprocesses,areobligedpaytheaffectedcustomer.
4.Recommendationsdirectedatenergyretailersandlocalgovernments
4.1Developlocaloutreachprograms
Theseprogramsshouldbedevelopedtoreachhouseholdsinareaswithahighlevelof
multipledisconnections.Retailersand/orlocalcouncilsshouldinitiateoutreachprogramsto
effectivelyreachandassistthesecommunitiesensuringtheyareawareofavailablesupport.
7
TableofContents
Disclaimer........................................................................................................................................................ 2
Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................................................... 2
ExecutiveSummaryandRecommendations........................................................................................ 3
1.Introductionandmethodology ............................................................................................................ 9
1.1Recentdevelopmentsandthepurposeofthisproject ............................................................................ 10
1.2Methodology ................................................................................................................................................................................. 11
1.2.1Theretaildatasetanddatanormalisation ................................................................................................................... 12
1.2.2Disconnectionsraisedvs.completed ............................................................................................................................. 15
1.3When,where,whoandwhy .............................................................................................................................. 17
2.When .......................................................................................................................................................... 19
2.1Timeofyear ........................................................................................................................................................... 19
2.2Pricechangesanddisconnections.................................................................................................................. 20
2.3Weatherdrivenconsumptionanddisconnections................................................................................... 28
3.Where......................................................................................................................................................... 30
3.1Totalnumberofdisconnectionsbypostcode............................................................................................. 31
3.2Householdsdisconnectedmultipletimes..................................................................................................... 38
4.Whoandwhy .......................................................................................................................................... 48
4.1Interstatedifferences ......................................................................................................................................... 49
4.1.1Familycompositionandemploymentstatus.............................................................................................................. 49
4.1.2Age ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 50
4.1.3Tenuretypesandhousingstress...................................................................................................................................... 51
4.1.4Householdincome .................................................................................................................................................................. 54
4.2Geographiclocation............................................................................................................................................. 56
4.3Geographiclocationandgroupcharacteristics .......................................................................................... 67
4.3.1Largerhouseholds .................................................................................................................................................................. 67
4.3.2Smallerhouseholds ................................................................................................................................................................ 87
4.4Shorttermortransitionalfinancialstressvs.ongoingfinancialhardship....................................107
5.Conclusion .............................................................................................................................................108
8
1.Introductionandmethodology
In2012/13theelectricitydisconnectionrateforresidentialcustomersinNSW,South
Australia,QueenslandandVictoriawasbetween1and1.5per100customers.2Thisrate
mayappearlowbutadisconnectionrateof1.47inVictoria,forexample,meansthatover
34,000householdsweredisconnectedfromsupplyduetonon-paymentthatyear.
Beingdisconnectedfromanessentialservicecancausesignificantsocialharm.A2013
reportbythePublicInterestAdvocacyCentre(PIAC)inNSWfoundthat:
“Disconnectionwasdisruptivetohouseholds,witharangeofstrategiesdeployedto
copewiththesituation,includingusingcandlesorlanterns,havingcold
showers/baths,andbuyingtakeaway/preparedfood.Thoselivinginpublichousing
weresignificantlymorelikelythanotherstotakeseveralcoursesofactiontodeal
withthedisconnection.
Arangeofimpactsresultedfromdisconnection,mostcommonlyanxietyand
emotionaldisorders,lossoffoodandaninabilitytowash.Theseimpactswere
compoundedthelongerthedisconnection.”3
Becauseoftheseverityoftheimpacts,itiscommonlyacknowledgedthatdisconnectionfor
non-paymentshouldbealastresortmeasure.4
TheNationalEnergyCustomerFramework(NECF),thatcurrentlycoversretailersoperating
inNSW,SouthAustraliaandQueensland,andtheVictorianEnergyRetailCode(ERC),
containrequirementsforretailerstominimisehardshipanddisconnectionsfornonpayment.TheNationalEnergyRetailRules(NERR)andtheVictorianERCstipulate:
• Daysthatadisconnectioncannottakeplace(theprotectedperiod),includingdays
between20Decemberand31DecembereveryyearandFridaysoranydaybeforea
publicholiday
• Requirementsforretailerstoissueremindernoticesanddisconnectionwarning
notices,aswellastheparticularcontenttobeincludedinthesenotices
• Requirementsforretailerstousetheirbestendeavourstocontactthecustomer
priortodisconnection
TheNERRandtheERCalsoincludespecialprovisionsforcustomersthataredeemed
hardshipcustomersorcustomersthatthathaveinformedtheretailerthattheyare
experiencingpaymentdifficulties.Thesecustomerscannotbedisconnectedunlessthey
havebeenofferedtwopaymentplansintheprevious12months.
2
The2013/14disconnectionratewas1.47inVictoria,1.03inNSW,1.37inSouthAustraliaandapproximately
1.31inQueensland.SeeESC,EnergyRetailersComparativePerformanceReport–CustomerService,2013-14,
December2014,Table4.2
3
PIAC,CutOffIII,TheSocialImpactofUtilityDisconnection,FinalReport,April2013,ii
4
Seeforexample,ESC,EnergyRetailersComparativePerformanceReport–CustomerService,2013-14,
December2014,25andAER,AnnualReportonthePerformanceoftheRetailEnergyMarket2014-15,32
9
Therearealsorequirementsfortheretailerstoestablishandofferhardshipprograms.In
Victoria,aretailerthatisfoundtohavewrongfullydisconnectedacustomerhastopaythe
customerasetamountforeachdaytheywerewithoutsupply.
1.1Recentdevelopmentsandthepurposeofthisproject
Whenthereisanincreaseinelectricitydisconnectionstheresponsebypoliticiansisoftento
reviewregulatoryrequirementsandretailers’performance.InVictoria,theESChasjust
releaseditsfinalreportfromanEnergyHardshipInquirythatitwasrequestedbythe
VictorianGovernmenttoundertake.5WhentheESCreportedinFebruary2015thatmore
Victorianelectricitycustomerswerebeingdisconnectedthanbefore,theEnergyMinister
announcedtheinquiry:
“Ourinquiry,ourreview,willgettothebottomofthereasonsforthe
disconnections,butalsoimportantlywilllookatwhattheenergyretailersare
actuallydoingintermsoftheirpoliciesforidentifyingfinancialhardshipamongst
theircustomersearlyenoughsotheycanofferassistance".6
Whenthescopeoftheinquirybecameclear,however,thefocuswasverymuchlimitedto
theregulation,retailers’obligationsandretailers’performance.AstheESCreportstates:
“Theinquiryfocusesonhowenergyretailerssupportcustomersexperiencing
difficultypayingtheirenergybills.Specifically,itexamineshowtheregulatory
frameworkoperatesinpractice.
Investigatingthebroadersocio-economiccausesoffinancialdifficultyisbeyondthe
scopeoftheinquiry.Rather,theinquiryexamineshowenergyretailersaccountfor
thefinancialcircumstancesofindividualcustomerswhenassistingcustomers
experiencingpaymentdifficulties.”7
TheAustralianEnergyRegulator(AER),whichistheresponsibleregulatorinNSW,South
AustraliaandQueensland,alsoissuedcompliancechecksintotheretailers’disconnection
practicesinMarchandApril2015.8Thesecheckswerepromptedbyaregulatoryconcern
overahighnumberofdisconnectionsbeingraisedwithoutcomplyingwiththeNational
EnergyRetailRules(NERR).9
TheAERisalsocurrentlyundertakingaconsultationtodevelopaSustainablePaymentPlans
Frameworkwiththeaimofenhancingretailers’abilitytoassesscustomers’capacityto
5
ESC,SupportingCustomers,AvoidingLabels.EnergyHardshipInquiry,FinalReport,February2016
VictorianEnergyMinister,LilyD’AmbrosioquotedinTheAge,Soaringpowercostsleadstorecordnumberof
disconnectionsinVictoria,JasonDowlingandAishaDow,February18,2015at
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/soaring-power-costs-leads-to-record-number-of-disconnections-invictoria-20150218-13i4lt.html
7
ESC,SupportingCustomers,AvoidingLabels.EnergyHardshipInquiry,FinalReport,February2016,1
8
CompliancechecksareperiodicallyusedbytheAERtohighlightrelevantobligationsandtoemphasisethe
importanceofeffectivecomplianceprocessesandsystemsforthebroaderindustry.
9
AER,ComplianceCheck,NationalEnergyRetailRules:retailersarrangingde-energisation,March2015and
AER,ComplianceCheck,NationalEnergyRetailRules:retailer-initiatedde-energisation,April2015
6
10
pay.10UndertheNERRretailersarerequiredtooffercustomerscontactingtheirretailer
aboutpaymentissuesapaymentplanandinestablishingsuchplans,theretailerisrequired
tohaveregardtocustomers’capacitytopay.
InVictoria,theESCreleaseditsfinalreportintotheEnergyHardshipInquiryinFebruary
2016andhasundertakentoimplementanewframeworkthatwillcodifyhowretailersare
expectedtosupportcustomerswithpaymentdifficulties,requireretailerstoassessthetype
ofpaymentdifficultythecustomerisfacingratherthanthecauseofpaymentdifficultyas
wellasnewobligationsonretailersandchangestothereportingframework.11
Whilewebelieveregulation,retailerobligationsandretailpracticesareallimportant
measurestolimitthenumberofhouseholdsthatgetdisconnectedfromelectricitydueto
aninabilitytopay,wealsothinkitistoonarrowtomerelyfocusontheseaspectsinorderto
actuallyensurethatenergyhardshipanddisconnectionsareminimised.Disconnections
oftenhavedetrimentalimpactonhouseholdsandwecertainlyagreewiththesentimentof
theEnergyMinister’sstatementthat:12
“Wedon'twantacommunity,wedon'twantasocietythatcontinuestositbyand
seedisconnections,increase”.13
However,wealsobelievethatweneedtounderstandthebroadercontextforwhyenergy
hardshipanddisconnectionsoccur.Tocomplement,ratherthanduplicate,inquiries
undertakenbyregulators,wethereforedecidedtomapdisconnectionsindependentlyof
retailerbehaviourandregulations.Thisstudyexamineswhen,where,whoandwhy
disconnectionsoccuracrossSouthAustralia,Victoria,NSWandSouthEastQueensland.
1.2Methodology
Inordertoobtaindataforthisstudy,weapproachedtheEnergyNetworkAssociation(ENA)
andAGLforassistance.AsAGLisamajorretailerwithcustomersinmostNational
ElectricityMarket(NEM)jurisdictions,theaimwastoanalysetheirdataandcompareitthe
distributors’datainordertoestimateadiscrepancyratiothatwouldallowustoundertake
analysisbasedondistributordataonlyinthefuture.WhiletheENAwasverysupportiveof
thisprojectandliaisedwiththedistributionbusinessesinordertoobtaindata,thetimingof
theprojectmeantthatwewerecompetingwithmorepressingissuesforthedistributors
andwewereunabletoobtaindistributordatafordisconnectionsinNSWandSouth
Australia.Nothavingdistributordatafortwooutoffourjurisdictionsresultedinusbeing
unabletodetermineameaningfulandreliablediscrepancyratebetweendistributordata
10
Seehttps://www.aer.gov.au/retail-markets/retail-guidelines/aer-sustainable-payment-plansframework/draft-decision
11
SeeESC,SupportingCustomers,AvoidingLabels.EnergyHardshipInquiry,FinalReport,February2016
12
See,forexample,PIAC,CutOffIII,TheSocialImpactofUtilityDisconnection,FinalReport,April2013
13
VictorianEnergyMinister,LilyD’AmbrosioquotedinTheAge,Soaringpowercostsleadstorecordnumberof
disconnectionsinVictoria,JasonDowlingandAishaDow,February18,2015at
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/soaring-power-costs-leads-to-record-number-of-disconnections-invictoria-20150218-13i4lt.html
11
andretaildatatomeasurefuturedisconnectionfornon-paymentratesbasedondistributor
dataonly.14WethereforedecidedtoproceedwiththeprojectbasedonAGL’sdataalone.
WereceivedadatasetfromAGLthatcontainedatotalof199,704disconnectionsraiseddue
tonon-paymentfrom1July2012to30June2015,coveringthestatesofNSW,South
Australia,VictoriaandQueensland(SouthEastQueenslandonly).15Theaim,however,has
notbeentoanalyseAGL’sdisconnectionsperse.Rather,wehavesoughttoensurethatthe
samplesizeislargeenoughtoshedlightonwhen,whereandwhydisconnectionsoccurin
general.
1.2.1Theretaildatasetanddatanormalisation
39%(or78,071)ofthedisconnectionswereraisedinNSW,32%(or63,600)wereinVictoria,
17%(or34,680)wereinSouthAustraliaand12%(or23,353)wereinSouthEastQueensland
(Energex’networkarea).
Chart1Proportionsofdisconnectionsraisedindataset(AGL)perjurisdiction
32%
39%
NSW
QLD
SA
17%
12%
VIC
Whileweacknowledgethatitisnotidealtorelyonthedataprovidedbyasingleretailer
whentheaimistoanalysedisconnectionsingeneral,wehavetestedthedataandbelieveit
isrepresentativeasasampleforallcustomersafternormalisingthedataforAGLmarket
shareineachnetworkarea.ThisaspectisparticularlyimportantbecauseAGListhe
incumbentretailerinsomenetworkareas,andincumbentstendtohavemorecustomersin
theirhostareascomparedtootherareasaswellasmorestandingoffercustomersinthese
‘patches’comparedtoothers.Thedatasetdidnotdistinguishbetweenstandingofferand
marketoffercustomers,sowedonotknowwhetherahigherproportionofstandingoffer
customerscomparedtomarketoffercustomersgetdisconnected(relativetothenumberof
14
Thepurposeofthisexercisewastodevelopamethodologythatcouldbeusedforfuturemappingof
disconnectionswithouthavingtoobtainretailerdata.Retaildatacanbemoredifficulttoobtainthan
distributordataduetocommercialconcernsandconfidentialityissues.
15
AsthereisnoretailcompetitioninnorthernQueensland(theErgonnetwork),AGLdoesnothave
QueenslandcustomersoutsideSouthEastQueensland(SEQ).
12
customersoneachcontracttype),butitisreasonabletoassumethatsomestandingoffer
customersfinditdifficulttoswitchtoadifferentretailerduetodebtorcreditratingissues.
Westress,however,thatthedatasethasbeennormalisedbasedonmarketshareonly.For
thesedisconnectionratestobetrue,everyretailerwouldneedtodisconnectasoftenoras
seldomasAGLandthisassumptionwouldbewrongiftheaimwastoreportonthetotal
numberofdisconnections.Thisisnottheaimofthisproject.Regulatorscanmore
accuratelyreportondisconnectionnumbers,andtheydo,sotocomplementtheiranalyses
weareinvestigatingwherehighnumbersofdisconnectionsoccur,i.e.whatpostcodeshave
thegreatestdisconnectionratesandwhy?Wealsolookatwhendisconnectionsoccur,but
itisagainmeanttoshowtimeswhendisconnectionsarerelativelyhighcomparedtoother
times,nottoshowhowmanydisconnectionsoccurredin,forexample,June2014.
Outofthetotal199,704disconnectionsraisedinthedataset,39%wereraisedinthe
2012/13financialyear,29%in2013/14and32%in2014/15.
Chart2Dataset(AGL)disconnectionsraisedineachyear
90,000
80,000
78,156
70,000
57,904
60,000
63,644
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
AsthisisobviouslydifferentfromthetrendreportedbytheESCinVictoria,wecompared
theVictorianpartofthedatasettotheESCnumbers.ThenumberoftotalAGLelectricity
disconnectionsinVictoriainourdatasetwasveryclosetothenumbersESChasreported
thatAGLdisconnectedinboth2012/13and2013/14.16WealsocomparedAGL’s
disconnectionrateper100customersinourdataset(basedonmonthlycustomernumbers
providedbyAGL)andfoundthatourdisconnectionratewassimilartothatreportedbythe
ESC,basedonourcountoftotalcompleteddisconnectionsforeachyeardividedbyAGL’s
annualaveragecustomernumbersinVictoria.OurdatasetalsoshowsthatAGL
16
ESC,EnergyRetailersComparativePerformanceReport–CustomerService,2013-14,December2014,Table
4.3,29.2014/15dataisnotyetavailable.Bystatingthatthenumbersareverycloseweacknowledgethat
thereisnotanexactmatchbutthedifferencecanbeexplainedbywhetherthedateusedisthedatethe
serviceorderfordisconnectionwascreated,thedatethedisconnectionwasscheduledorthebasisdate.The
differencebetweenthesedatesmeansthatsomedisconnectionsthathavebeenreportedtotheESCas
2012/13disconnectionsmayhavebeencountedas2013/14disconnectionsinourdataprocessingandvice
versa.Ourdataprocessusedthebasisdate.
13
disconnectedfewercustomersin2013/14thantheydidin2012/13.Thisisconsistentwith
theESC’sreportingshowingthatwhiletheoveralldisconnectionrate(acrossallretailers)
increasedin2013/14,AGL’sactuallydecreased.17
WhenwenormalisedtheAGLdatabasedonAGL’scustomernumbersandassumedtotal
customernumbers,however,ourtotaldisconnectionratewasgreaterthanthatreportedby
theESC.ThatcanbepartlyexplainedbyAGLhavingagreaterdisconnectionrate(numberof
disconnectionsper100customers)thanthestatetotal.18Thismeansthatourbasic
assumptionthatallretailersactlikeAGL,andthushavethesamedisconnectionrate,over
estimatesthenumberofdisconnections.Anotherpotentialexplanationisthatour
residentialcustomernumbersforeachnetworkareaaretoohigh,resultinginusunder
estimatingAGL’smarketshare.AsNSWandVictoriahaveseveralnetworkareas,AGL
provideduswithabreakdownoftheirresidentialcustomersforeach(asapercentage)asof
2015,aswellastheirtotalresidentialcustomernumbersineachjurisdiction(notnetwork
area)foreachofthethreeyears.WethusdistributedtotalAGLcustomernumbersforeach
jurisdictionforeachyearaccordingtoAGL’s2015splitbetweennetworks.19Inorderto
calculateAGL’smarketshareineachnetworkareaweusedtheresidentialcustomer
numbersoutlinedintable1.
20
Table1Residentialcustomersbynetworkarea Network
AusGrid
Endeavour
Essential
AusNetServices
Jemena
Powercor
Citipower
UnitedEnergy
SAPN
Energex
Total
Numberofresidentialcustomers
1,463,205
830,657
715,400
611,406
285,834
658,280
271,323
591,489
749,228
1,251,769
7,428,591
17
Ibid
Ibid
19
Forexample,ifAGLreportedthattheyhad1,200,000residentialcustomersinNSWin2012/13andthat60%
ofthesewereinEssentialEnergy’snetworkwhileAusGridandEndeavourhad20%each,ourcalculationwould
havebeenthatAGLhad720,000residentialcustomersinEssentialand240,000inAusGridandEndeavourin
2012/13.Note:Thisexampleisnotbasedontherealnumbers.
20
Thesecustomernumbersarebasedonthedistributionbusinesses’RegulatoryInformationNotices(RIN)to
theAERin2013/14.Thefiguresareincludedinthe‘EconomicBenchmarkingRIN–Templates’workbooks.
18
14
1.2.2Disconnectionsraisedvs.completed
Whenaretailerhasdecidedtodisconnectacustomerfornon-paymentitraisesaservice
orderwiththerelevantnetworkbusiness,which,inreturnforanagreedservicefee,carries
outwiththedisconnectionontheretailer’sbehalf.However,notalldisconnectionsraised
resultinacompleteddisconnection.
Outofthenearly200,000disconnectionsraisedbytheretailer,therelevantnetworks
completed50%oftheseserviceorderswhile45%werenotcompletedand5%werepartly
completed.21
Chart3Serviceorderstatusofdisconnectionsindataset(AGL)
45%
50%
Completed
Completedpartially
Notcompleted
5%
Thecompletionratevariesbetweenthejurisdictions.InVictoria59%ofalldisconnections
raisedwerecompleted,inQueenslandandNSWthecompletionrateswere52%and50%
respectively.InSouthAustralia,however,thecompletionratewas33%.Thatsaid,South
Australiahadahighproportionofpartiallycompleted,meaningthatpartiallycompleted
andcompleteddisconnectionscombinedresultsinasimilarcompletionratetoNSW(50%).
Chart4belowshowstheproportionofcompleted,notcompletedandpartiallycompleted
outofthetotalnumberofdisconnectionsraisedineachofthefourstates.
21
Itisourunderstandingthatapartiallycompleteddisconnectionmeansthatthehouseholdhasbeendeenergisedandfromacustomerperspective,apartiallycompleteddisconnectionisthesameasbeing
disconnectedfromsupply.
15
Chart4Proportionofcompleted,partiallycompletedandnotcompleteddisconnectionsbyjurisdiction
basedondataset(AGL)
100%
90%
80%
70%
33
50
39
52
60%
NotCompleted
50%
Partiallycompleted
40%
30%
20%
50
59
52
Completed
33
10%
0%
NSW
QLD
SA
VIC
Therearealsosignificantdifferencesbetweennetworks.InVictoria’sPowercorand
Citipowernetworks,forexample,only14–19%ofdisconnectionsraisedwerenot
completed.ThatisasignificantlyhighercompletionratethanAusgrid(53%uncompleted),
SAPN(52%),andthe49%inEndeavour,AusnetServicesandUnitedEnergy’sareas.
Chart5Proportionofcompleted/partiallycompletedandnotcompleteddisconnectionsbynetworkbased
ondataset(AGL)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
53 49 42 33 52 19 14 49 45 49
NotCompleted
Completed/Part
completed
Thereareafewfactorsthatcontributetothedifferenceincompletionrates.Firstly,high
penetrationofsmartmeterswithinanetworkislikelytoincreasethecompletionrateas
disconnectionsoccurremotely.Secondly,largenetworkswithasprawlingcustomerbase
mayresultinlowercompletionratesduetothedistancetoandremotenessofthe
customers.Third,andfinally,wewouldassumethattherearedifferencesinoperational
16
practiceswithinthevariousnetworkbusinesses.Itis,however,importanttoconsider
completionrateswhenanalysingdisconnectiondataasdisconnectionsraisedmore
accuratelyshowswhereandwhencustomersareexperiencingenergyrelatedfinancial
hardshipthandisconnectionscompleted.Thatis,thefinancialstressexperiencedbythe
householdisnotlessbecausethenetworkfailedtocarryouttheserviceorderorbecause
theirmeterisanaccumulationmeterthatrequiresasitevisit.Conversely,ifthemainaimis
toidentifywhereandwhenhouseholdsactuallyexperiencedisconnections,thenthefocus
needstobeoncompletedandpartiallycompleteddisconnections.
Highercompletionratesovertimecanalsobeinterpretedasanincreaseindisconnections
raised,eitherbecausemorehouseholdsareexperiencingfinancialhardshiporbecausethe
retailersaremorereadilydisconnectinghouseholdsfornon-payment.Ifanetworkhasjust
completedarolloutofsmartmeters,however,anincreaseindisconnectionsmaysimplybe
duetomoreefficientlycompletedserviceordersbythenetworks.InVictoria,forexample,
wefoundthat53%ofthenotcompleteddisconnectionsoccurredin2012/13,27%in
2013/14andonly20%ofthemoccurredin2014/15.Thisindicatesthatthesmartmeters
havehadasignificantimpactontheVictoriancompletionrates.
1.3When,wherewhoandwhy
Intermsofanalysing“when”disconnectionsoccurwehavesoughttoexaminewhenduring
theyeardisconnectionnumbersarethegreatestaswellaswhetherdisconnections
increase:
• Aftersignificantbillincreases(typicallydrivenbyregulatoryprice-resets)
• Afterweathereventsresultinginheatingdegreedays(HDDs)orcoolingdegreedays
(CDDs)
• Afterthesummerperiodinareaswherecoolingneedsarehigh
• Afterthewinterperiodinareaswhereheatingneedsarehigh
Furthermore,asourdatasetcontainsdisconnectionsoverathreeyearperiodwealsoaimed
totestwhetherdisconnectionrateshadincreasedordecreasedsignificantlyoverthe
period.Whileourassumptionhasbeenthattherewillbedifficulttodetectchangesdueto
factorssuchasgentrificationorlocalchangestoemploymentopportunitiesoverathree
yearperiod,wedidexaminewhethertherearesubstantialyearonyearincreasesor
decreaseswithinpostcodesoverthisperiod.
Forthe‘when’analysisinsection2,wehaveusedAGLdataaswellasAGLdatanormalised
formarketshare.
Inthe‘where’analysis(section3)wehavemappedthedisconnectiondata(normalisedfor
marketshare)toexplorewherehighnumbersofdisconnectionsoccur.Thisanalysisshows
whetherthereareurban,regionalorrural‘hotspots’andwhethertherearedifferences
betweenthejurisdictions.Thisanalysisalsoexamineswherethereisahigherproportionof
customersthathavebeendisconnectedmultipletimesoverthethreeyearperiod.
17
The2015Droppingofftheedge(DOTE)studyundertakenbytheJesuitSocialServicesand
CatholicSocialServicesAustraliaanalysesdisadvantageinAustraliabypostcodes.22The
studyscoresandrankspostcodesdisadvantagebasedonvariousvariablessuchashousing
stress,longtermunemploymentanddisabilitysupport.Wewouldthereforeexpecttosee
someofthemostdisadvantagedpostcodesamongstthepostcodeswiththehighest
disconnectionnumbers.Thatsaid,energyhardshipanddisconnectionsarenotlimitedto
themostdisadvantagedpostcodes.Variouscostpressuresandbillpriorityissuesalso
impactonwheredisconnectionsoccur.23Themostdisadvantagedpostcodesarelikelyto
havealotofhouseholdswithpersistent,longtermfinancialhardship,householdsthatget
disconnectedhowever,mayalsoincludehouseholdsintemporaryorfluctuatingfinancial
hardship.24Householdsexperiencingdifferenttypesofenergyrelatedfinancialhardshipare
alsolikelytotypicallyliveindifferentpostcodes.Akeyassumptionweexplorewas
thereforethatpostcodeswithhighdisconnectionratesarenotallsimilarpostcodesor
alwayspostcodesassociatedwithsignificantdisadvantage.Thisisthe‘who’and‘why’
aspectsofthisstudy(section4).
Inthissectionwehavenormalisedthedatarelativetonumberofhouseholdsineach
postcodeandexaminedthe200postcodes(50foreachjurisdiction)withthehighest
disconnectionnumbersusingABScensusdata.Anotherassumptionthatwehavetestedis
whetherthejurisdictionshaveasimilarmixofpostcodetypes/characteristics.Wehave
thereforeexaminedwhethertherearesimilaritiesand/ordifferencesbetweenthetypesof
postcodesthathavehighdisconnectionnumbersinthefourjurisdictionsbasedonsix
householdgroupsthatreflectdifferentincome/expendituremix.Thesegroupsare:
1. Lowincomefamiliesexperiencinghousingstress
2. Medianincomefamiliesexperiencinghousingstress
3. Lowtomedianincomefamilieswithlowerhousingcostsbutgreatertransportcosts
4. Lowincomesmallhouseholds(couples,solepersonsandsoleparents)experiencing
housingstress
5. Smallhouseholdswithmedianincomeexperiencinghousingstress
6. Smallhouseholdswithlowtomedianincomewithlowerhousingcostsbutgreater
transportcosts
22
Seehttp://www.dote.org.au
Seesection4ofthisreport.
24
TheESC’sEnergyHardshipInquirydiscussedcustomercategoriesintermsoftemporary,fluctuatingand
persistentfinancialhardship.
23
18
2.When
Thisfirstpartoftheanalysisexamineswhendisconnectionsoccur.Itlooksatwhattimeof
yearhasthehighestdisconnectionnumbersaswellaspotentiallinksbetweenprice
increasesanddisconnections,aswellasweatherdrivenconsumptioncausinghigherbills
anddisconnections.
Wealsoexaminedwhetherthenumberofdisconnectionswithinindividualpostcodeshad
changedoverthethreeyearperiod.Thatis,whetherthereareclearyearonyearincreases
ordecreasestodisconnectionnumbersinsomepostcodes.Whilewefoundchangesto
disconnectionlevelsoverthethreeyearperiodinsomepostcodes,wedecidedthatathree
yearperiodisinsufficienttodetecton-goingchangestodisconnectionswithinanareaas
therewerenocleartrendsamongstotherwisesimilarareas.
2.1Timeofyear
Januaryisthemonthwiththehighestnumberofdisconnectionsbeingraisedwhile
Decemberhasthefewest.Outofthetotalnumberofdisconnectionsraised(completed,not
completedandpartiallycompleted)overthethreeyearperiod,24,982occurredinJanuary.
Table2Disconnections(AGL)raisedbymonth
Month
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Total
Numberofdisconnectionsraised
24,982
15,676
15,939
14,975
13,109
17,960
14,880
16,286
18,347
20,512
18,499
8,539
199,704
Springistheseasonmostdisconnectionsoccur.28%ofthetotalnumberofdisconnections
occurredinSeptember(9%),October(10%)andNovember(9%).
19
Chart6Disconnections(AGL)raisedbyseason
December
9%
4%
January
13%
February
10%
March
8%
9%
April
May
8%
8%
8%
7%
9%
7%
June
July
August
September
October
Januaryistypicallyregardedasadifficulttimefinanciallyformanyfamilies.Costsassociated
withChristmas,andtheholidayseasonmoregenerally,aswellascostsrelatingtothestart
ofthenewschoolyearmayplacesevereconstraintsonthehouseholdbudgetbymidtolate
January.However,itisnotjustthesefactorsthatmakeJanuarythemonthwiththehighest
numberofdisconnections.Section2.2belowexploresotherfactorsthatimpactonwhen
householdsgetdisconnected.
2.2Pricechangesanddisconnections
Asourhypothesiswasthattherewillbeanincreaseindisconnectionsfornon-paymentin
responsetopriceincreases,weweresurprisedbythelackofaclearlinkbetweenprice
increasesanddisconnectionnumbersinthedataset.
Chart7below,forexample,showsAGL’sdisconnectionnumbersintheJemenadistribution
areaaswellasquarterlyelectricitybillsforadualfuelhouseholdwithtypicalelectricity
consumption.Ifthischartshowsanything,itshowsthatdisconnectionnumbersdecrease
afterbillincreases.Clearly,thereisnologicalreasonfordisconnectionnumberstodecrease
inresponsetohigherbillssothismayreflectlimitationstothedatasetorsuggestdifferent
interpretationisrequired.
20
500
450
480
400
460
350
440
300
420
250
400
200
380
150
360
100
340
50
320
0
300
Quarterlybill($)
500
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Numberofdisconnecnons
Chart7Completeddisconnections(AGL)andquarterlystandingofferbillsforhouseholdswithtypical
consumptionlevels(4,800kWh)intheJemenanetwork
AxisTitle
Comp_Disconnecnon
Quarterlybill
Charts8-10belowshowestimatedcompleteddisconnectionsbyeachmonthforthe
VictoriannetworkareasofCitipower,JemenaandPowercor.Thefilledcolumnsaremonths
whensignificantpriceincreasestookeffect(July2012,January2013andJanuary2014).The
chartsshow,however,thatdisconnectionsonlyincreasedaftertheJuly2012priceincrease
whilethenumberofdisconnectionsdecreasedafterthetwootherpriceincreases.Wealso
notethatduetothehighpenetrationofgasinVictoria,typicalelectricityconsumptionfor
householdsislowerthanitisinotherjurisdictions.Furthermore,asthebillingcyclefor
electricityandgasisdifferent(typicallyquarterlyforelectricityandbi-monthlyforgas)the
totalcostofhouseholds’energyconsumptionistypicallyspreadacrosstwobills(electricity
andgas)thatarriveatdifferenttimes.Finally,wenotethatVictoriansoftenexperiencetwo
pricechangesovertheyear,aftertheregulatoryre-setinJanuaryandinJulyduetochanges
inthewholesalemarketorthepolicyframework.Thecarbontax,forexample,resultedin
priceincreasesfromJuly2012,butunliketheotherjurisdictions,Victorianhouseholdsdid
notreceiveapriceincreaseduetoregulatorypricere-setsatthesametime.Theseprice
changesoccurredinJanuary2013inVictoria.Theseareallfactorsthatmayexplainwhythe
linkbetweenpriceincreasesanddisconnectionsisweakinthatstate.
21
Chart8EstimatednumberofcompleteddisconnectionsinCitipowerbycalendarmonth
Cinpower
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Chart9EstimatednumberofcompleteddisconnectionsinJemenabycalendarmonth
Jemena
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
22
Chart10EstimatednumberofcompleteddisconnectionsinPowercorbycalendarmonth
Powercor
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Charts11and12belowshowestimatedcompleteddisconnectionsbyeachmonthforthe
NSWnetworkareasofAusgridandEndeavour.Thefilledcolumnsaremonthswhen
significantpriceincreasestookeffect(July2012andJuly2013forAusgridandJuly2012for
Endeavour).
InAusgrid,disconnectionsincreasedsignificantlyinOctober2012butitisunclearwhether
thiswasindirectresponsetothepriceincreasesthattookeffectinJuly2012.InEndeavour,
theJuly2012priceincreasesmayhavehadasimilarimpactbutitisdifficulttothenexplain
similarincreasestodisconnectionsintheotheryearswhencustomersdidnotexperience
priceincreases.
23
Chart11EstimatednumberofcompleteddisconnectionsinAusgridbycalendarmonth
Ausgrid
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Chart12EstimatednumberofcompleteddisconnectionsinEndeavourbycalendarmonth
Endeavour
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Chart13belowshowssimilarpatternsforSouthAustralia.Theremayhavebeena
significantincreaseindisconnectionsinOctober2012duetothepriceincreasesthattook
effectpostJuly2012but,ifso,theimpactoftheJuly2014priceincreaseswasalotless
severe.WealsonotethatsomecustomersinSouthAustraliawouldhaveexperiencedprice
increasesin2013whileotherswouldhaveexperiencedpricereductionsthatyear(dueto
transitionalarrangementsinrelationtoretailpricederegulation).
24
Chart13EstimatednumberofcompleteddisconnectionsinSAPNbycalendarmonth
SAPN
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Residentialelectricitypricesincreasedsignificantlyin2011and2012inNSW,Victoriaand
SouthAustralia,sincethen,however,theincreaseshavebeenmoremoderateaswellas
includedsomedecreases.25Thismayexplainwhyweareunabletodetectaclearrelation
betweenpriceincreasesanddisconnectionsbasedonpricechangesoccurringbetween
January2013andJuly2015.ElectricitypricesinQueensland,however,didincreaseby
approximately20%inJuly2013aswellas10%inJuly2012andJuly2014.
Chart14belowshowsestimatedcompleteddisconnectionsinSouthEastQueenslandfor
eachmonth.ThecolumnsforJuly2012(whenpricesincreasedby10%),July2013(when
pricesincreasedby20%)andJuly2014(whenpricesincreasedby10%)areoutlinedinred.
ThefollowingSeptember,OctoberandNovember(redcolumns)arethustimeswewould
expecttoseeanincreaseindisconnectionsinresponsetothesepriceincreases.Whilethe
disconnectionnumbersaregreaterduringthesethreemonthscomparedtoAugust,wealso
notethatdisconnectionnumbersarehigherforsomeoftheothermonths.
25
TheStVincentdePaulSocietyhasanalysedpricechangesinallNEMjurisdictionsfrom2009to2015through
itsongoingTariff-Trackingproject.Seewww.vinnies.org.au/energyformoreinformationabouttheTariffTrackingprojectandchangestoresidentialenergyprices.BothSouthAustralia(in2013)andNSW(in2014)
introducedlowertransitionalratesinrelationtotheintroductionofretailpriceregulationandalljurisdictions
experiencedpricedeductionsduetotherepealofthecarbontax.
25
Chart14EstimatednumberofcompleteddisconnectionsinSEQbycalendarmonth
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
0
Astheaboveanalysisisbasedoncompleteddisconnectionsonlyitisnotnecessarilythe
bestindicatorforpaymentdifficultiesduetobillincreases.Astherearerelativelyfewsmart
metersinQueensland,Energex,thedistributionbusiness,usuallyhastomanually
disconnecthouseholdsthattheretailerhasraisedaserviceorderfor.Energex’abilityto
carryouttheseserviceordersinatimelyfashionwillthereforeimpactonwhenthe
householdswereactuallydisconnected.
Ittypicallytakes2-3weeksfromadisconnectionbeingraisedbytheretailertobeing
completedbythedistributorinSEQ.Ifthedistributionbusiness(aswellastheregulatory
requirementstheyoperatewithin)hadnoimpactonwhendisconnectionsarecompleted,
wewouldexpectdisconnectionscompletedtrendingjustbehinddisconnectionsraisedin
chart15below(understandingthattheoverallcompletionratewouldbelowerthanthe
numberofdisconnectionsraised).Chart15shows,however,thatthisisnotalwaysthecase.
In2013,forexample,thereisapeakindisconnectionsraisedinOctober2013butthepeak
indisconnectionscompleteddoesnotoccurbeforeJanuary2014.TheDecemberdropin
bothdisconnectionsraisedanddisconnectionscompleted,inparticular,canbeexplainedby
theregulatoryrequirementpreventingdisconnectionsclosetopublicholidaysaswellas
industry’sownpracticesofnotdisconnectinghouseholdsintheleaduptoChristmas.This
naturallyleadstoabackloginJanuaryandthereforebecomesamonthwhenmany
householdsgetdisconnected.Westress,however,thatitisnotretailersthatraisehigh
numbersofdisconnectionsduetonon-paymentinJanuary,butthattheincreasein
disconnectionsiscausedbyanincreasetothecompletionrate.
26
Chart15EstimatednumberofdisconnectionsraisedandcompletedinSEQbycalendarmonth
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
0
RAISED
COMPLETED
Chart16belowshowsestimateddisconnectionsraised(notcompleted)duetononpaymentbytheretailerforeachofthemonths.Inthischartthereisastrongerlinkbetween
thesignificantpriceincreasesinJuly2013(20%)andthenumberofdisconnectionsraisedin
October2013.Theimmediateimpactofpriceincreasesonthenumberofdisconnections
raisedin2012and2014arelessclearbutwenotethatthepriceincreaseswerelowerin
thesetwoyearscomparedto2013.Furthermore,asignificantproportionoftheJuly2013
priceincreasewasinthefixeddailysupplychargemeaningthathouseholdshadlessofan
abilitytomitigatehighbillsthroughreducingtheirconsumption.Italsowouldhavemade
thepriceincreasesproportionallylargerforsmallerhouseholdswithalowerconsumption
level.26
26
TheVinnies’Tariff-Trackingreportstatedthatthesupplycharge(fortariff11)increasedby92%(or26
cents/day)fromJuly2013.StVincentdePaulSociety,QueenslandEnergyPricesJuly2012–July2013,An
UpdateReportontheQueenslandTariff-TrackingProjectbyMayMausethJohnston,August2013
27
Chart16EstimatednumberofdisconnectionsraisedinSEQbycalendarmonth
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
0
Whilethedataavailableforthisanalysisdoesnotallowustofirmlyconcludethat
disconnectionnumbersincreaseafterasignificantpriceincrease,webelievethatwecan
expectahighernumberofdisconnectionsbeingraisedtwotothreemonthsaftersignificant
priceincreasestakeeffect.Howsignificantthepriceincreasehastobeinordertoexpectan
increaseindisconnectionsraised,however,isnotanissuethatthisanalysishasenabledus
toexplore.
Ourhypothesisisstillthathigherbillsduetopriceincreasesand/orconsumptionwill
increasethenumberofcustomersexperiencingenergyrelatedfinancialhardshipand
ultimatelydisconnections.Datashowingwhenandwheredisconnectionsoccur,however,is
notbestsuitedtotestthishypothesis.Therearetoomanyfactorsinfluencingwhen
disconnectionsoccur(includingretailpractices,distributorpracticesandregulatory
requirements)tobeabletoestablishaclearandconsistentrelationshipbetweenprice
changesanddisconnections.
2.3Weatherdrivenconsumptionanddisconnections
Duetothevariousfactorsthatimpactonwhendisconnectionsoccurthatwediscussed
above,itwasnotsurprisingthatwewereunabletoestablishanylinkbetweenweather
drivenconsumptionanddisconnectionlevels.
Againthereisnoreasontobelievethataverycoldwinteroraveryhotsummerdonot
impactonthenumberofcustomersfacingdifficultiespayingtheirbillsandpotentiallybeing
disconnected.Howeverasitisreasonabletoassumethatweatherdrivenhigherelectricity
28
consumptionhaslessofanimpactthansignificantpriceincreases,wedecidednotto
analysethedataindetailinordertotrytolinkweathereventstodisconnectionnumbers.27
Chart17belowshowsmonthlybillsadjustedforheatingdegreedays(HDD)andcooling
degreedays(CDD)intheJemenanetworkaswellasAGL’sdisconnectionnumbers.This
chart,aswellassimilarchartsthatweanalysedfordifferentnetworkareas,doesnotallow
ustodrawanylinkbetweenhigherweatherdrivenconsumptionanddisconnection
numbers.
500
200
450
180
400
160
350
140
300
120
250
100
200
80
150
60
100
40
50
20
0
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
0
Monthlybill($)
Numberofdisconnecnons
Chart17Completeddisconnections(AGL)andweatheradjustedmonthlybillsforhouseholdswithatypical
28
annualconsumption(4,800kWh)intheJemenanetwork Comp_Disconnecnon
Monthlybill
Insummary,Januaryisthemonthwiththehighestdisconnectionnumbersbutthisdoesnot
necessarilymeanthatJanuaryisthemonththatthehighestnumberofhouseholdsface
difficultiesinpayingtheirelectricitybills.Whilehigherbillsduetopriceincreasesand/or
weatherdrivenincreaseinconsumptionislikelytoincreasethenumberofhouseholds
unabletopay,therearenumerousfactorsinfluencingwhenahouseholdactuallygets
disconnected,suchasbillingcycles,businesspracticesandregulatoryrequirements.This
meansthatdisconnectiondataisnotbestsuitedtomeasuretheimpacthigherbillshaveon
energyrelatedfinancialhardship.Inordertoestablishtheimpacthigherbillshaveon
energyrelatedhardshipwiththepotentialoutcomeofdisconnection,webelieveastudyof
otherindicators,suchaschangestohowmanydaysittakesforbillstobepaid,wouldbe
morerevealing.
27
Forexample,manycustomerswillexpectandplanforhigherbillsduetoweatherdrivenincreasesto
consumptionlevelsduetopastexperiences.Priceincreases,ontheotherhand,havenotpreviouslybeen
presentedintheformofabill.Sowhilebothoccurrencescancausepaymentdifficulties,priceincreasesare
morelikelytopresentthemselvesas“bill-shock”.
28
InordertocalculateHDDandCDDweusedmaximumandminimumdailytemperaturescollectedateachof
thecapitalcities’mainairportsandmadeavailablebytheBureauofMetrology(atwww.bom.gov.au).HDD
equals18-(maxdailytemperature-minimumdailytemperature)/2andCDDequals(maxdailytemperatureminimumdailytemperature)/2-18(positivevaluesonly).
29
3.Where
Mostpostcodescontainhouseholdsthatgetdisconnectedfromelectricityfromtimeto
time,butthenumberofhouseholdsthatgetdisconnectedandhowfrequentlythisoccurs,
varysignificantlyfromareatoarea.
ThemapbelowshowspostcodesthathadcompletedelectricitydisconnectionsinSouth
Australia,Victoria,NSWandSouthEastQueenslandfromJuly2012toJuly2015.29
Map1PostcodeswithcompletedelectricitydisconnectionsduringtheJuly2012–July2015period
Therearealsodifferencesbetweenjurisdictionsintermsofhowfrequentlyhouseholdsget
disconnectedandinwhatareashighernumbersofdisconnectionsoccur.Asdiscussedin
section1.2.2,jurisdictionaldifferencesinrelationtoproportionofcustomersthatget
disconnectedcanbeinfluencedbymeteringtypes(manualmeterversussmartmeters)as
wellasbusinesspracticesrelatingtothelocalelectricitydistributorratherthantheretailer.
Inthissection,however,wewillfocusonwhetherhighdisconnectionnumbersoccurin
innercityareas,suburbanpostcodes,regionalcitiesorruralareas,aswellaswhetherthere
aresignificantdifferencesbetweenthefourjurisdictionscoveredbyouranalysis.
29
AsthedataanalysisinthissectionisbasedonAGLretaildata,disconnectionsinapostcodethatdoesnot
haveAGLcustomerswillnotberegistered.Wedonotknowwhethertherearepostcodesintheseareaswhere
AGLdoesnothavecustomersoronlyafewcustomers.
30
3.1Totalnumberofdisconnectionsbypostcode
Theanalysispresentedinthissectionshowsestimatedtotalnumberofdisconnectionsfor
eachpostcode.TheestimatednumbersarebasedonAGL’sdataandhavebeennormalised
forAGL’smarketshareineachnetworkarea.Theanalysisthereforeshowshowmany
householdsthatweredisconnectedineachpostcodeifallretailersdisconnectedas
frequently(orseldom)asAGL.
Maps2-5belowshowestimatedtotalnumberofdisconnectionsforeachpostcodeduring
thethreeyearperiodfromJuly2012toJuly2015foreachofthefourjurisdictionsaswellas
theestimatednumberofdisconnectionsineachpostcode(circlesize).30
Map2Victoria-EstimatedtotaldisconnectionsbypostcodefromJuly2012–July2015
30
Thedatahasbeennormalisedtoshownumberofdisconnectionsoccurringifallretailersdisconnectas
frequentlyasAGL.AssuchthesemapshavetakenAGL’smarketshare/customernumbersintoaccountbutit
doesnotshowtheproportionofcustomersdisconnectedineachpostcodebasedonpostcodepopulation.
31
Map3SouthAustralia-EstimatedtotaldisconnectionsbypostcodefromJuly2012–July2015
32
Map4NSW-EstimatedtotaldisconnectionsbypostcodefromJuly2012–July2015
33
Map5SouthEastQueensland-EstimatedtotaldisconnectionsbypostcodefromJuly2012–July2015
TheabovemapsindicatethatVictoriaandNSWhavethepostcodeswiththehighest
numbersofdisconnections(biggestcircles)andthatdisconnectionsaremostfrequentin
theurbanareasofMelbourne,Adelaide,SydneyandBrisbane.Thiscanbepartlyexplained
bypopulationnumbersbeinghigherintheseareas.
Interestingly,however,NSWhasseveralruralandregionalareaswithhighdisconnection
numberscomparedtotheotherjurisdictions.Whileallfourjurisdictionshavepocketswith
highdisconnectionnumbersoutsidetheircapitalcities,thenumberofdisconnections
occurringinthesenon-urbanareasofNSWareveryhighbycomparison.
Maps6-9belowshowsthesamedatazoomedinonthecapitalcities.Theyshowthatall
fourcitieshavehigherdisconnectionratesintheinnercityaswellasinsomeoftheouter
suburbs.However,theyalsoshowthatMelbourneandSydneyhaveparticularlyhigh
disconnectionratesinsomeoftheirinner-citypostcodescomparedtoAdelaideand
Brisbane.Again,populationsizemayexplainsomeofthesedifferencesbutotherfactors
suchascostofhousing,publichousingandstudentpopulationmayalsocontribute.These
factorswillbeexploredinsection4.1below.
34
Intermsofsuburbanpostcodeswithhighdisconnectionnumbers,thesemapsshowthat
thehighestdisconnectionnumbersoccurinthelowersocioeconomicareasof:
• Melbourne’swesternandnorthernsuburbsaswellasoutersoutheasternsuburbs;
• Adelaide’snorthernsuburbs;
• Sydney’swesternsuburbs;and
• Brisbane’ssouthernandnorthernsuburbs.
Map6Melbourne-EstimatedtotaldisconnectionsbypostcodefromJuly2012–July2015
35
Map7Adelaide-EstimatedtotaldisconnectionsbypostcodefromJuly2012–July2015
36
Map8Sydney-EstimatedtotaldisconnectionsbypostcodefromJuly2012–July2015
37
Map9Brisbane-EstimatedtotaldisconnectionsbypostcodefromJuly2012–July2015
2.2Householdsdisconnectedmultipletimes
Asthedatasetcontainscustomernumberswehavebeenabletocountandgeospatially
locateindividualcustomersthathavebeendisconnected(andreconnected)multipletimes
overthethreeyearperiod.
Themapsbelowshowpostcodesbyindividualcustomersbeingdisconnected1to5times
overthethreeyearperiod.Clearlyalotofpostcodeshavemanyelectricitycustomersthat
havebeendisconnectedonceoverthethreeyearperiodbutsomepostcodesalsohave
manycustomersdisconnectedfourorfivetimesovertheperiod.Westressthatthisanalysis
isbasedoncustomernumberandnotdwellingormeteridentifier,andasthecustomer
numberisthestartingpointforthisanalysis,acustomerdisconnectedfivetimeshasnot
beenincludedinthepresentationofcustomersdisconnected1to4times.
38
Map10EstimatedtotalnumberofcustomersineachpostcodedisconnectedoncefromJuly2012toJuly
2015
Whenseveralhouseholdsinacommunityaredisconnectedfromelectricitymorethanonce
overathreeyearperiod,wearearguablylookingatcommunitieswithentrenchedpoverty
orongoingfinancialhardship.Themapbelowshowspostcodeswherecustomerswere
disconnectedtwiceinthethreeyeartimeframe.
ItshowsthatmanyruralandregionalpostcodesinNSWandVictoriahadahighnumberof
customersdisconnectedtwiceduringthisperiod.
39
Map11EstimatedtotalnumberofcustomersineachpostcodedisconnectedtwicefromJuly2012toJuly
2015
Ruralandregionalpostcodeswhereweestimatethat200customersormorewere
disconnectedtwiceduringthisperiodarelistedintable3below.
40
Table3Ruralandregionalpostcodeswhere200customersormoreweredisconnectedtwice
State
NSW
NSW
VIC
NSW
NSW
VIC
VIC
VIC
NSW
VIC
VIC
NSW
SEQ
NSW
NSW
Postcodename
Orange
Dubbo
Corio
WaggaWagga
Bathurst
Shepparton
Ballarat
Morewell
BrokenHill
Warrnambool
Bendigo
Tabletop
Bellmere
Lavington
Moree
Numberof
customers
477
338
329
285
269
243
241
240
238
236
221
208
207
200
200
MelbourneandSydneyalsohavepostcodeswheremorethan200customerswere
disconnectedtwice.TheouterwesternMelbournesuburbofWerribee,forexample,had
approximately570customersdisconnectedtwiceduringthisthreeyearperiod.Themaps
belowshownumberofcustomersdisconnectedtwiceinMelbourneandSydney,andthe
tableliststhecitypostcodeswheremorethan200customersweredisconnectedtwice.
41
Map12EstimatedtotalnumberofcustomersineachMelbournepostcodedisconnectedtwotimesfrom
July2012toJuly2015
42
Map13EstimatedtotalnumberofcustomersineachSydneypostcodedisconnectedtwotimesfromJuly
2012toJuly2015
Table4MelbourneandSydneypostcodeswhere200customersormoreweredisconnectedtwice
State
VIC
VIC
VIC
VIC
VIC
VIC
VIC
VIC
NSW
NSW
VIC
Postcodename
Werribee
StAlbans
Tarneit
Melbourne
Sydenham
Sunshine
CranbourneEast
Burnside
MountPritchard
Hebersham
Melton
Numberof
customers
571
414
379
375
357
350
320
300
260
256
221
43
Whenexaminingcustomersthathavebeendisconnectedthreetimesoverthethreeyear
period,itisclearthatthesamepostcodesthathadahighnumberofcustomers
disconnectedtwicetypicallyalsohavethehighestnumbersofcustomersdisconnected
threetimes.
Map14EstimatedtotalnumberofcustomersineachpostcodedisconnectedthreetimesfromJuly2012to
July2015
Thetablebelowlistspostcodeswhere50ormorecustomersweredisconnectedthreetimes
overthethreeyearperiod.Fourteenofthepostcodeslistedinthetablebeloware
postcodesthathadmorethan200customersthatweredisconnectedtwicewhilesevenof
thepostcodesaredifferent(marked*).
44
Table5Postcodeswhere50customersormoreweredisconnectedthreetimes
State
Postcodename
Numberof
customers
NSW
Hebersham
338
VIC
Werribee
100
VIC
StAlbans
93
NSW
Orange
92
VIC
Bendigo
71
VIC
Tarneit
71
VIC
Mildura*
71
VIC
Melbourne
69
VIC
Sunshine
64
VIC
Melton
64
VIC
AltonaMeadows*
64
NSW
Blacktown*
64
NSW
Dubbo
62
VIC
Ballarat
57
VIC
StAlbansPark*
57
VIC
WyndhamVale*
57
VIC
Craigieburn*
54
VIC
CranbourneEast
53
VIC
Corio
50
VIC
Burnside
50
VIC
Flemington*
50
Inrelationtopostcodeswheremultiplecustomershavebeendisconnected4or5times
overthethreeyearperiod,thisbecomesmostlyanissueforVictoria(wherethereisahigh
penetrationofsmartmetersthatenableremotedisconnection).Themapsbelowshows
postcodeswherecustomershavebeendisconnected4and5times.Thetableshowsthat
someoftheMelbournepostcodeswheremorethan20customershavebeendisconnected
4timesaredifferenttothoselistedabove.Itisthereforepossiblethatthese“new”
postcodeshaveparticularhousingarrangements(i.e.roominghouses)orotherissuesinthe
communitythatimpactonfrequentdisconnections(therelevantpostcodesaremarked*).
45
Map15EstimatedtotalnumberofcustomersineachpostcodedisconnectedfourtimesfromJuly2012to
July2015
Table6Postcodeswhere20customersormoreweredisconnectedfourtimes
State
NSW
VIC
VIC
VIC
VIC
VIC
VIC
VIC
VIC
VIC
VIC
VIC
Postcodename
Orange
SouthYarra*
StAlbans
Burnside
Sydenham
StKilda*
Richmond*
Ballarat
Echuca*
Morwell
NarreWarren*
Traralgon*
Numberof
customers
54
31
29
29
29
25
25
21
21
20
20
20
46
Map16EstimatedtotalnumberofcustomersineachpostcodedisconnectedfivetimesfromJuly2012to
July2015
Onlythreepostcodeshadmorethan10customersthathavebeendisconnected5timesin3
years.ThesearetheVictorianpostcodesofCorio,WerribeeandMelbourne.
Insummary,theaboveanalysisshowsthatthedisconnection‘hotspots’varysomewhat
betweenthejurisdictions.InNSW,theregionalcentresandsomesmallerruraltownshave
relativelyhighdisconnectionnumbers.InVictoriaandSouthEastQueensland,ontheother
hand,theoutersuburbsaremoreatriskcomparedtoregionalareas.
Intermsofdisconnectionsbeingcompletedandcustomersbeingdisconnectedmultiple
times,webelievethattherolloutofsmartmetersinVictoriahasenabledahigher
completionrateaswellasincreasedthepossibilityofhouseholdsbeingdisconnected
multipletimesoverathreeyearperiod.Asdiscussedintheintroductionofthisreport,52%
ofalldisconnectionsraisedinSouthAustraliaand50%ofthoseraisedinNSWoverthe
threeyearperioddidnotgetcompleted.InVictoria,39%werenotcompleted.Furthermore,
wefoundthatoutofthenotcompleteddisconnectionsinVictoria,53%ofthemoccurredin
2012/13,27%in2013/14andonly20%in2014/15.Thisindicatesthatsmartmetershave
hadasignificantimpactontheVictoriancompletionrates.
47
4.Whoandwhy
Theanalysispresentedinthissectionisbasedonthe200postcodeswiththehighest
disconnectionnumbersrelativetopopulation.The‘top200’aremadeupofthe‘top50’
postcodesineachofthefourjurisdictions.31
Wehaveanalysedpostcodecharacteristicsbasedonincomeandexpenses.Incomelevels
reflectdifferentlifecyclestagesaswellasdifferentpaylevelsfordifferenttypesof
employment.Theexpensesfocusesonessentialsthatmaybeprioritisedoverelectricity
bills.Keyexpensesarehousing,foodandtransportation.Inrelationtohousing,wehave
alsoanalysedhousingstressbytenure.Medianrentandmortgagerepaymentsaswellas
proportionofhouseholdsthatspend30%ormoreofhouseholdincomeonrentor
mortgagerepayments.Inordertosimplifytheanalysis,wehaveassumedthatfood
expensesincreasewithhouseholdsizeandthattransportcostsaregreaterinruraland
regionalareaswhereahigherproportionofpeoplerelyonprivatecars.32
Onthebasisofthesecriteriawehaveidentifiedsixbroadgroupsofhouseholdsthatareat
greatestriskofdisconnection.Thesegroupsare:
7. Lowincomefamiliesexperiencinghousingstress
8. Medianincomefamiliesexperiencinghousingstress
9. Lowtomedianincomefamilieswithlowerhousingcostsbutgreatertransportcosts
10. Lowincomesmallhouseholds(couples,solepersonsandsoleparents)experiencing
housingstress
11. Smallhouseholdswithmedianincomeexperiencinghousingstress
12. Smallhouseholdswithlowtomedianincomewithlowerhousingcostsbutgreater
transportcosts
Forsomeofthesegroups,hardshipandelectricitydisconnectionsaretransitional,lifecycle
relatedissuesbutforothersitindicateslongtermfinancialdisadvantage.Furthermore,
whilethelocationsofthesegroupsmaychangesomewhatovertime,thereareclear
patternsintermsofthelikelihoodofanareahavinghighdisconnectionnumbers.
31
Inidentifyingthe50postcodeswiththehighestdisconnectionnumbersineachstateweusedcompleted
andpartlycompleteddisconnectionsinAGL’sdataset(includingmultipledisconnectionsbythesamecustomer
number)andnormalisedthesenumbersbasedonAGL’scustomernumbers.Inordertodeterminethe
disconnectionratiosforeachpostcode,weusedresidentialdwellings(occupiedandunoccupied)asperABS
censusdata(2011).Inordertoavoididentifyingpotentialsmallplaceswithhighdisconnectionnumbersthat
couldleadtoindividualsorcommunitiesfeelingtargetedorstigmatised,weusedminimumestimated
disconnectionsperpostcodeinordertobeincludedinthisanalysis.Inordertoreflectthedifferencesinthe
numberofcompleteddisconnectionsineachstate,however,weuseddifferentminimumsindifferent
jurisdictions.InVictoriaandNSWtheanalysiscoveredpostcodesthathadmorethan100estimated
disconnectionsperyear,inSEQweincludedpostcodesthathadmorethan66estimateddisconnections,and
inSA,morethan33disconnectionsperyear.The‘top50’postcodesthereforedonotincludeanypostcodes
thatmayhavelessdisconnectionthanthesecutoffratesbutcouldpotentiallystillbeahighdisconnection
postcodeduetoverylowpopulationnumbers.
32
See,forexample,ABSHouseholdExpenditureSurvey2003/4thatshowssignificantlyhigherexpenditureon
transportinruralareascomparedtomajorurbanareas.Cat.No.1380.0.55.033PerspectivesonRegional
Australia:HouseholdExpenditurethroughoutAustralia,2002-03
48
4.1Interstatedifferences
Inanalysingthe50postcodeswiththehighestnumberofdisconnectionswithineachstate,
weidentifiedbothcommonalitiesanddifferencesbetweenthe‘top50’postcodesineachof
thefourjurisdictions.Ananalysisofthecombined‘top200’postcodesacrossthefour
jurisdictionsandthe‘top50’postcodesineachjurisdictionhighlightsdifferencesand
similaritiesbetweenthejurisdictionsinregardstokeysocioeconomiccharacteristics.Aswe
haveassessedpostcodedataagainsttherelevantstates’averageormediantoascertain
whetherthepostcodeishighorlowinrelationtoaspecificsocioeconomicindicator,we
stressthattheSouthEastQueensland(SEQ)postcodeshavebeencomparedtodatafor
Queenslandasawholeandthatthismayhaveskewedtheassessmentofthesepostcodes
somewhat.Forexample,ifthemedianhouseholdincomeishigherinSEQthanitisin
Queenslandasawhole,thenthe‘top50’disconnectionpostcodesinSEQmayappear
relativelywelloffcomparedtotheQueenslandmedian.ComparedtotheSEQmedian(that
wedonothave),however,thesepostcodesmayhavearelativelylowmedianincome.
4.1.1Familycompositionandemploymentstatus
24%ofthe‘top200’postcodesarecomprisedofmorecouplefamilieswithchildrenthan
therelevantstate’saverage.61%ofthepostcodeshadmoresoleparenthouseholdsthan
average.
Inregardstoeachjurisdiction,ontheotherhand,therearesignificantdifferencesinterms
oftheprevalenceofcouplefamilyhouseholdsinthe‘top50’postcodes.InNSWonly12%of
thepostcodeshadmorecouplefamiliesthantheNSWaverage,while32%ofthe
Queenslandpostcodesdid.Also,70%oftheVictorian‘top50’postcodeshadagreater
numberofsoleparentsthantheVictorianaverage,while54%oftheQueenslandpostcodes
did.
Table7Familycomposition–postcodeswithahighernumberofcouplefamilieswithchildren
Couplefamilieswith
children
QLD‘top50’
NSW‘top50’
SA‘top50’
VIC‘top50’
All‘top200’
Numberof
postcodes
Proportionof
postcodes
16
6
14
12
48
32%
12%
28%
24%
24%
49
Table8Familycomposition–postcodeswithahighernumberofsoleparentsthantherelevantstate’s
average
Soleparents
Numberof
Proportionof
postcodes
postcodes
QLD‘top50’
27
54%
NSW‘top50’
31
62%
SA‘top50’
29
58%
VIC‘top50’
35
70%
All‘top200’
122
61%
Ascouplefamilies(withorwithoutchildren)withbothparents/partnersoutsidethework
forcearemorelikelytorelyonsocialsecurityortheagedpensionforincome,weexpect
postcodeswithhighdisconnectionratestohaveahighernumberofcouplefamilieswhere
botharenotworking.49%ofthe‘top200’postcodesarecomprisedofmorecouple
familiesoutsidetheworkforcethantherelevantstate’saverageandwhiletherearesome
differencesbetweenthestates,theyaresmallerforthisindicatorcomparedtowhatwas
thecaseforfamilycomposition.
Table9Employmentstatusofcouplefamilies–postcodeswithahighernumberofcouplefamilieswhere
botharenotworkingthantherelevantstate’saverage
Bothnotworking
QLD‘top50’
NSW‘top50’
SA‘top50’
VIC‘top50’
All‘top200’
Numberof
postcodes
29
22
22
25
98
Proportionof
postcodes
58%
44%
44%
50%
49%
4.1.2Age
35%ofthe‘top200’postcodesarepostcodeswherethemedianageishigherthanthe
relevantstate’smedian.Ontheotherhand,58%ofthe‘top200’postcodesarepostcodes
wherethemedianageislower.33WhileNSWandSouthAustraliahavethesamenumberof
postcodesineachcategory,QueenslandandVictoriaarequitedifferent.Atfirstglanceit
couldlooklikeelectricitydisconnectionisagreaterproblemfortheelderlyinQueensland
andamongsttheyounginVictoria.Wedo,however,believetheQueenslandnumbersmay
33
Postcodeswherethemedianageisthesameastherelevantstate’smedianagearenotincludedineither
category.
50
beskewedduetothehighnumbersofpeopleretiringtoSouthEastQueenslandandthe
meanageofthedisconnectionpostcodesbeingcomparedtothemeanageofQueensland
onthewhole.
Overall,therearemorepostcodesinthe‘top200’,aswellasthestates’‘top50’postcodes,
withamedianagebelowthestates’median.
Table10Olderage–postcodeswithahighermedianagethantherelevantstate’smedian
Olderage
Numberof
Proportionof
postcodes
postcodes
QLD‘top50’
20
40%
NSW‘top50’
18
36%
SA‘top50’
18
36%
VIC‘top50’
14
28%
All‘top200’
70
35%
Table11Youngerage–postcodeswithalowermedianagethantherelevantstate’smedian
Youngerage
QLD‘top50’
NSW‘top50’
SA‘top50’
VIC‘top50’
All‘top200’
Numberof
postcodes
27
28
28
33
116
Proportionof
postcodes
54%
56%
56%
66%
58%
4.1.3Tenuretypesandhousingstress34
Asmanyofthepostcodeswithhighdisconnectionratesarepostcodeswithalowermedian
age,itisnotsurprisingtofindthatthereisagreaterpresenceofrenters,aswellashome
buyers(homeownerswithamortgage),inthepostcodeswithhighdisconnectionnumbers.
60%ofthe‘top200’postcodesarecomprisedofmorerentersthantherelevantstate’s
average.28%ofthepostcodeshavemorehomebuyersthanaverage.
34
Housingstresshasbeendefinedashouseholdswhererent/mortgagepaymentsare30%,orgreater,of
householdincome.
51
Intermsofmedianweeklyrentormedianmonthlymortgagerepayments,bothpostcodes
withveryhighhousingcostsandpostcodeswithrelativelylowhousingcostsarepresentin
the‘top200’/‘top50’postcodes.
23%ofthe‘top200’postcodesarepostcodesthatwehaveclassifiedashigherrent
postcodes(10%ormorethantherelevantstate’smedian).20%arepostcodesthatwehave
classifiedashighermortgagepostcodes(10%ormorethantherelevantstate’smedian).
However,westressthathighdisconnectionpostcodeswithahighprevalenceofhousing
stressduetomortgagerepaymentsaretypicallynotthesamepostcodesthathavethehigh
mortgagecosts.Inpostcodeswithhighmortgagecosts,however,wefoundhighlevelsof
housingstressinrelationtohighrentalcosts.
Allinall,53%ofthe‘top200’postcodesarepostcodesthathavemoretenantsexperiencing
housingstressthanthestate’saverage.29%arepostcodesthathavemorehomebuyers
experiencinghousingstressthanthestate’saverage.
InQueensland,manyofthe‘top50’postcodeshavehighhousingstressratesfortenants
and/orhomebuyers.InVictoria,ontheotherhand,mostofthehousingstressisinrelation
torent.InNSW,manyofthepostcodeswithhighdisconnectionnumbershadrelativelylow
housingcosts.Thiscouldindicateanumberofthings:Firstly,thatthe‘top50’postcodesare
comprisedofmoreruralandregionalpostcodescomparedto,forexample,Victoria.
Secondly,thatthereareothersocialissuesand/orcostpressureshavingagreaterimpacton
disconnectionratesinNSWcomparedtootherstates.Thirdly,thatdisconnectionofthe
‘assetrichbutcashpoor’(typicallytheelderly)maybeagreaterissueinNSWcomparedto
theotherstates.However,themedianageandtheproportionofcoupleswhereboth
parents/partnersdonotwork,donotindicatethatthisisthecase.Themostlikely
explanationisthereforethatthe‘top50’NSWpostcodesmostlycapturepostcodesfacing
entrenchedpovertyandthehousingstresspostcodeswouldonlybeproperlypresentedif
weanalysethe‘top100’disconnectionpostcodesinNSW.
Table12Housingtenure–postcodeswithahighernumberofrentersthantherelevantstate’saverage
Renters
QLD‘top50’
NSW‘top50’
SA‘top50’
VIC‘top50’
All‘top200’
Numberof
postcodes
29
27
32
31
119
Proportionof
postcodes
58%
54%
64%
62%
60%
52
Table13Housingtenure–postcodeswithahighernumberofhomebuyersthantherelevantstate’s
average
Homebuyers
QLD‘top50’
NSW‘top50’
SA‘top50’
VIC‘top50’
All‘top200’
Numberof
postcodes
22
4
18
11
55
Proportionof
postcodes
44%
8%
36%
22%
28%
Table14Highrentalcosts–postcodeswithamedianrentthatis10%morethantherelevantstate’smedian
Highrent
QLD‘top50’
NSW‘top50’
SA‘top50’
VIC‘top50’
All‘top200’
Numberof
postcodes
13
8
13
12
46
Proportionof
postcodes
26%
16%
26%
24%
23%
Table15Highmortgagecosts–postcodeswithamedianmortgagerepaymentthatis10%morethanthe
relevantstate’smedian
Highmortgagerepayments
QLD‘top50’
NSW‘top50’
SA‘top50’
VIC‘top50’
All‘top200’
Numberof
postcodes
9
7
7
16
39
Proportionof
postcodes
18%
14%
14%
32%
20%
53
Table16Highlevelsofhousingstressamongsttenants–postcodeswithmorerentalrelatedhousingstress
thantherelevantstate’saverage
Housingstress-rentals
QLD‘top50’
NSW‘top50’
SA‘top50’
VIC‘top50’
All‘top200’
Numberof
postcodes
30
18
27
30
105
Proportionof
postcodes
60%
36%
54%
60%
53%
Table17Highlevelsofhousingstressamongsthomebuyers–postcodeswithmoremortgagerelated
housingstressthantherelevantstate’saverage
Housingstress–home
buyers
QLD‘top50’
NSW‘top50’
SA‘top50’
VIC‘top50’
All‘top200’
Numberof
postcodes
Proportionof
postcodes
21
7
18
12
58
42%
14%
36%
24%
29%
4.1.4Householdincome
63%ofthe‘top200’postcodesarecomprisedofmorehouseholdswithagrossweekly
incomeof$600orless,thantherelevantstate’saverage.NSWisthestatewherethe‘top
50’disconnectionpostcodeshavethehighestnumberoflowincomehouseholds(definedas
grossweeklyhouseholdincomeof$600orless)whileQueensland’s‘top50’hadthelowest.
Again,westressthatthedisconnectiondatacoversSouthEastQueenslandonlyandthat
theincomelevelsofpostcodesinthisareahasbeencomparedtoincomelevelsin
Queenslandonawhole.
54
Table18Grossweeklyhouseholdincomeof$600orless–postcodeswithmorelowincomehouseholds
thantherelevantstate’saverage
Lowincomehouseholds
Numberof
Proportionof
postcodes
postcodes
QLD‘top50’
25
50%
NSW‘top50’
39
78%
SA‘top50’
32
64%
VIC‘top50’
30
60%
All‘top200’
126
63%
Aswasthecaseinrelationtomedianhousingcosts,themedianincomeisrelativelyhighin
someofthepostcodeswithhighdisconnectionnumbers.Again,thatdoesnotmeanthat
thedisconnectedhouseholdsarelikelytobehighincomehouseholds,itonlymeansthat
relativelywell-offpostcodesmayhavepocketsofhouseholdsstrugglingfinanciallydueto
lowincomeorhighcosts.Studentsresidinginaffluentareasneartertiaryinstitutionsisone
example.Anotherispublichousingestatesinexpensiveinnercitylocations.
20%ofthe‘top200’postcodesarecomprisedofhouseholdswithamedianincomethatis
atleast10%higherthantherelevantstate’saverage.QueenslandandVictoriaarethetwo
stateswiththehighestnumberofrelativelywealthypostcodesintheir‘top50’lists.
Table19Highhouseholdincome–postcodeswithamedianhouseholdincomethatisatleast10%higher
thantherelevantstate’smedian
Highhouseholdincome
Numberof
Proportionof
postcodes
postcodes
QLD‘top50’
12
24%
NSW‘top50’
6
12%
SA‘top50’
7
14%
VIC‘top50’
14
28%
All‘top200’
39
20%
Thatsaid,themajorityofthehighdisconnectionpostcodeshaveamedianincomethatisat
least10%lowerthantherelevantstate’smedian.InNSW,78%ofthe‘top50’postcodesfall
withinthisincomegroup.
55
Table20Lowhouseholdincome–postcodeswithamedianhouseholdincomethatisatleast10%lessthan
therelevantstate’smedian
Lowhouseholdincome
Numberof
Proportionof
postcodes
postcodes
QLD‘top50’
23
46%
NSW‘top50’
39
78%
SA‘top50’
24
48%
VIC‘top50’
26
52%
All‘top200’
112
56%
4.2Geographiclocation
Geographiclocations,suchaspostcodes,bothinfluencehouseholds’livingexpensesasthe
costofessentialexpenses(i.e.housing,transportationandelectricity)varysignificantly
betweenareasaswellasimpactingonpeoples’decisionsintermsofwheretheycanbest
affordtolive.Atthesametime,geographiclocationinfluencesearningcapacitiesand
careeroreducationalopportunities.Lifecyclestagesthereforealsoimpactonpeoples’
decisionsintermsofwheretheyneedtolive.Forexample,acoupleontheagedpension
thatdonotowntheirownhomemayconsidermovingtoaruralorregionallocationin
ordertosaveonrent.Ayoungcoupleaimingtofurthertheireducationorfindajobintheir
relevantfieldofexpertise,ontheotherhand,aremoreunlikelytomoveawayfromsuch
opportunitiesinordertoreducetheirweeklyrent.Assuch,wecanexpecttofind
householdsinfinancialhardshipandbeingdisconnectedfromelectricityduetoaninability
topayinareaswithhigh,aswellaslow,livingcosts.
Table21belowshowseachgroup’scompositioninregardstothekeyindicators
Keyindicators
Group Group Group Group Group Group
1
2
3
4
5
6
Coupleswithchildren-average
43
48
43
31
28
36
proportionofhouseholds(%)
Soleparents-averageproportionof
23
18
17
20
12
19
households(%)
Coupledfamilieswherebotharenot
27
16
18
26
13
26
working-averageproportionof
households(%)
Grossweeklyhouseholdincomeofless 31
19
26
34
21
35
than$600-averageproportionof
households(%)
Homerented-averageproportionof
36
30
29
45
54
30
households(%)
Homeownedwithamortgage-
32
44
34
25
23
29
averageproportionofhouseholds(%)
56
Rentis30%,orgreater,ofhousehold
14
11
8
20
21
9
income-averageproportionof
households(%)
Mortgagerepaymentis30%,orgreater, 11
14
7
8
7
6
ofhouseholdincome-average
proportionofhouseholds(%)
Medianweeklyrent($)
250
300
200
278
365
160
Medianmonthlymortgagerepayment 1517 1733 1500 1733 2253 1154
($)
Medianage
35
32
37
38
33
41
Mediangrossweeklyhousehold
953
1246 1074 921
1522 812
income($)
Numberofpostcodes
41
39
33
31
18
38
Map17showsthelocationandestimatednumbersofdisconnectionsforthe50postcodes
withthehighestnumberofdisconnectionsfromJuly2012toJuly2015ineachofthefour
states.
Map17The50postcodeswiththehighestnumberofdisconnections(proportionaltopopulation)ineachof
thefourstates
57
Maps18-22belowshowthesamepostcodesbutgroupedaccordingtothesocio-economic
factorsusedtocharacterisetheseareas.Allgreenpostcodesarelow-incomeareaswithhigh
housingstress(group1and4),allbluepostcodesarelowtomediumincomeareashighin
housingstress(group2and5),andallredpostcodesarelowtomediumincomeareaswith
lowhousingstress(group3and6).Ablackdotinsidethecircleindicatesthatthearea
typicallyhaslarger(family)households(groups1–3).
Tables22–25listthe‘top50’postcodesineachjurisdictionrankedaccordingtotheir
disconnectionrates(1beingthehighest).
Map18The200postcodeswiththehighestnumberofdisconnectionsgroupedaccordingtothesocioeconomicfactorsusedtocharacterisetheseareas
58
Map19SouthAustralia:The50postcodeswiththehighestnumberofdisconnectionsgroupedaccordingto
thesocio-economicfactorsusedtocharacterisetheseareas
Table22SA‘top50’postcodesrankedfromhighesttolowestdisconnectionrates
Rank
Postcode
Name
Group
1
5259
NARRUNG
6
2
5120
VIRGINIA
1
3
5690
CEDUNA
6
4
5700
PORTAUGUSTAWEST
6
5
5113
ELIZABETHPARK
4
6
5115
KUDLA
2
7
5606
PORTLINCOLN
3
8
5277
PENOLA
3
9
5608
WHYALLASTUART
4
10
5114
SMITHFIELDPLAINS
2
11
5253
NORTHERNHEIGHTS
4
12
5112
ELIZABETHVALE
4
13
5501
WILDHORSEPLAINS
2
14
5343
BERRI
6
15
5013
WINGFIELD
1
16
5271
NARACOORTE
6
17
5330
WAIKERIE
6
59
18
5012
WOODVILLENORTH
1
19
5084
KILBURN
1
20
5345
BARMERA
6
21
5333
LOXTON
6
22
5095
MAWSONLAKES
2
23
5607
KARKOO
3
24
5165
CHRISTIESBEACH
4
25
5007
BROMPTON
4
26
5110
BURTON
2
27
5000
ADELAIDE
5
28
5341
RENMARK
6
29
5164
CHRISTIEDOWNS
4
30
5291
COMPTON
3
31
5252
KANMANTOO
2
32
5108
PARALOWIE
1
33
5556
WALLAROO
6
34
5163
HUNTFIELDHEIGHTS
1
35
5255
STRATHALBYN
2
36
5015
BIRKENHEAD
4
37
5168
OLDNOARLUNGA
1
38
5453
CLARE
6
39
5107
PARAFIELDGARDENS
2
40
5290
MOUNTGAMBIER
3
41
5031
MILEEND
1
42
5251
MOUNTBARKER
2
43
5173
PORTWILLUNGA
2
44
5351
COCKATOOVALLEY
2
45
5116
EVANSTON
1
46
5011
WOODVILLESOUTH
2
47
5023
SEATON
1
48
5554
KADINA
6
49
5046
WARRADALE
4
50
5045
GLENELGEAST
5
60
Map20Victoria:The50postcodeswiththehighestnumberofdisconnectionsgroupedaccordingtothe
socio-economicfactorsusedtocharacterisetheseareas
Table23Vic‘top50’postcodesrankedfromhighesttolowestdisconnectionrates
Rank
Postcode
Name
Group
1
3022
ARDEER
4
2
3019
BRAYBROOK
1
3
3061
CAMPBELLFIELD
1
4
3021
STALBANS
1
5
3000
MELBOURNE
4
6
3008
DOCKLANDS
5
7
3214
CORIO
1
8
3020
SUNSHINE
1
9
3066
COLLINGWOOD
4
10
3840
MORWELL
6
11
3024
WYNDHAMVALE
2
12
3030
WERRIBEE
2
13
3338
MELTONSOUTH
2
14
3023
BURNSIDE
2
15
3337
MELTON
2
61
16
3065
FITZROY
5
17
3842
CHURCHILL
6
18
3205
SOUTHMELBOURNE
5
19
3189
MOORABBIN
3
20
3029
TARNEIT
2
21
3028
ALTONAMEADOWS
3
22
3047
BROADMEADOWS
1
23
3803
HALLAM
2
24
3200
FRANKSTONNORTH
4
25
3219
STALBANSPARK
1
26
3630
SHEPPARTON
1
27
3355
WENDOUREE
6
28
3051
NORTHMELBOURNE
4
29
3067
ABBOTSFORD
5
30
3011
FOOTSCRAY
4
31
3564
ECHUCA
6
32
3048
COOLAROO
1
33
3038
TAYLORSLAKES
3
34
3280
WARRNAMBOOL
1
35
3218
GEELONGWEST
1
36
3006
SOUTHBANK
5
37
3556
EAGLEHAWK
6
38
3555
KANGAROOFLAT
6
39
3181
PRAHRAN
5
40
3212
LARA
3
41
3141
SOUTHYARRA
5
42
3550
BENDIGO
6
43
3915
HASTINGS
4
44
3825
MOE
6
45
3465
MARYBOROUGH
6
46
3250
COLAC
3
47
3055
BRUNSWICKWEST
5
48
3356
SEBASTOPOL
6
49
3976
HAMPTONPARK
2
50
3053
CARLTON
4
62
Map21NSW:The50postcodeswiththehighestnumberofdisconnectionsgroupedaccordingtothesocioeconomicfactorsusedtocharacterisetheseareas
Table24NSW‘top50’postcodesrankedfromhighesttolowestdisconnectionrates
Rank
Postcode
Name
Group
1
2400
MOREE
3
2
2800
ORANGE
3
3
2880
BROKENHILL
6
4
2832
WALGETT
6
5
2663
JUNEE
3
6
2830
DUBBO
3
7
2705
LEETON
3
8
2641
LAVINGTON
6
9
2820
WELLINGTON
6
10
2680
GRIFFITH
3
11
2840
BOURKE
3
12
2000
SYDNEY
5
13
2827
CURBAN
6
14
2700
NARRANDERA
6
15
2795
BATHURST
3
16
2799
BLAYNEY
3
63
17
2440
SOUTHKEMPSEY
6
18
2821
NARROMINE
3
19
2640
TABLETOP
3
20
2871
FORBES
6
21
2870
PARKES
3
22
2650
WAGGAWAGGA
3
23
2770
HEBERSHAM
1
24
2205
ARNCLIFFE
2
25
2163
VILLAWOOD
1
26
2008
CHIPPENDALE
5
27
2360
INVERELL
6
28
2350
ARMIDALE
3
29
2390
NARRABRI
3
30
2340
OXLEYVALE
3
31
2760
COLYTON
1
32
2470
CASINO
6
33
2380
GUNNEDAH
3
34
2794
COWRA
6
35
2460
LAWRENCE
6
36
2850
MUDGEE
3
37
2017
WATERLOO
4
38
2333
MUSWELLBROOK
3
39
2485
TWEEDHEADS
4
40
2164
WOODPARK
1
41
2150
PARRAMATTA
2
42
2009
PYRMONT
5
43
2590
COOTAMUNDRA
6
44
2142
HOLROYD
1
45
2160
MERRYLANDS
1
46
2430
TAREE
6
47
2200
BANKSTOWN
1
48
2026
BONDIBEACH
5
49
2161
GUILDFORD
1
50
2007
ULTIMO
4
64
Map22SouthEastQueensland:The50postcodeswiththehighestnumberofdisconnectionsgrouped
accordingtothesocio-economicfactorsusedtocharacterisetheseareas
Table25SEQ‘top50’postcodesrankedfromhighesttolowestdisconnectionrates
Rank
Postcode
Name
Group
1
4132
MARSDEN
2
2
4114
WOODRIDGE
1
3
4510
BELLMERE
1
4
4131
LOGANLEA
2
5
4501
LAWNTON
1
6
4506
MORAYFIELD
2
7
4508
DECEPTIONBAY
1
8
4301
REDBANKPLAINS
2
9
4102
WOOLLOONGABBA
4
10
4209
PIMPAMA
2
11
4110
ACACIARIDGE
1
12
4304
SILKSTONE
1
13
4133
WATERFORD
2
14
4019
MARGATE
4
15
4207
BEENLEIGH
2
16
4511
NINGI
4
65
17
4227
VARSITYLAKES
2
18
4519
BEERWAH
1
19
4567
NOOSAHEADS
4
20
4570
TUCHEKOI
6
21
4305
RACEVIEW
1
22
4077
INALA
1
23
4558
MAROOCHYDORE
4
24
4503
GRIFFIN
2
25
4300
SPRINGFIELD
2
26
4169
EASTBRISBANE
5
27
4564
MARCOOLA
5
28
4124
GREENBANK
2
29
4500
WARNER
2
30
4566
NOOSAVILLE
4
31
4504
NARANGBA
2
32
4343
GATTON
3
33
4032
CHERMSIDE
4
34
4118
REGENTSPARK
2
35
4505
BURPENGARY
2
36
4557
MOOLOOLABA
5
37
4014
VIRGINIA
3
38
4575
BUDDINA
4
39
4215
LABRADOR
4
40
4103
ANNERLEY
5
41
4007
ASCOT
2
42
4311
LOWOOD
1
43
4031
GORDONPARK
3
44
4127
DAISYHILL
3
45
4034
ZILLMERE
6
46
4509
MANGOHILL
2
47
4341
REGENCYDOWNS
1
48
4020
REDCLIFFE
4
49
4507
BELLARA
4
50
4560
MONTVILLE
1
66
4.3Geographiclocationandgroupcharacteristics
Thissectionseparatelydiscusseslocationandcharacteristicsofthehighdisconnection
postcodescharacterisedasthelarger(family)households(Group1,2and3)andthesmaller
households(Group4,5and6).
4.3.1Largerhouseholds
Groups1,2and3haveahigherproportionoflarge(family)householdscomparedtogroups
4,5and6.Largerhouseholdsaretypicallylocatedintheoutersuburbsandinregional
centres.Whiletheytendtohavehigherhouseholdincomescomparedtosmaller
households,theyalsorequirelargerhousesandhavehigherfoodcosts.
Map23Thelocationofpostcodesinthe‘top200’thatarecharacterisedasareaswithlargerhouseholds
(groups1,2and3)
Map24belowshowsthesamepostcodesbutthesizeofthecircleindicateswhich
postcodeshavehigherandlowerdisconnectionnumberscomparedtotheotherpostcodes
intheirgroup.Forgroup1and2,forexample,theMelbournepostcodeshaveahigher
proportionofdisconnections,butforgroup3,itisruralandregionalNSW.
67
Map24Postcodesinthe‘top200’thatarecharacterisedasareaswithlargerhouseholds(groups1,2and3)
andtheirrelativedisconnectionnumbers
Thebiggestgroup(41outof113postcodesallocatedtothelargehouseholdcategory)is
group1;lowincomefamiliesexperiencinghousingstress.Onaverage,thesepostcodesare
madeupof43%coupleswithchildrenand23%soleparentfamilies.Intermsofincome,
31%ofhouseholds(onaverage)hadgrossweeklyhouseholdincomeof$600orless.The
medianweeklyhouseholdincomeforthesepostcodesis$953.Housingstressisrelatedto
rentaswellasmortgagerepaymentsbutrentisthedominantcategory
ThemajorityofthesepostcodesarelocatedinthesuburbsofAdelaide,Melbourne,Sydney
andBrisbane.AlthoughtheVictorianregionalcentresofWarrnambool,Geelongand
Sheppartonhavealsobeenincludedinthisgroupduetotheirrelativehighproportionof
familyhouseholds.
68
Map25Group1postcodesandtheirrelativedisconnectionnumbers
Table26belowranksallgroup1postcodesaccordingtotheirdisconnectionrates(1being
thehighest).
Table26Group1postcodesrankedfromhighesttolowestdisconnectionrates(proportionaltopopulation)
Rank Postcode
Name
State
1
3019
BRAYBROOK
Vic
2
3061
CAMPBELLFIELD
Vic
3
3021
STALBANS
Vic
4
3214
CORIO
Vic
5
3020
SUNSHINE
Vic
6
5120
VIRGINIA
SA
7
3047
BROADMEADOWS
Vic
8
3219
STALBANSPARK
Vic
9
3630
SHEPPARTON
Vic
10
2770
HEBERSHAM
NSW
11
2163
VILLAWOOD
NSW
12
4114
WOODRIDGE
Qld
13
4510
BELLMERE
Qld
14
2760
COLYTON
NSW
15
3048
COOLAROO
Vic
16
3280
WARRNAMBOOL
Vic
17
3218
GEELONGWEST
Vic
18
2164
WOODPARK
NSW
19
4501
LAWNTON
Qld
20
2142
HOLROYD
NSW
21
2160
MERRYLANDS
NSW
22
2200
BANKSTOWN
NSW
69
23
2161
GUILDFORD
NSW
24
4508
DECEPTIONBAY
Qld
25
4110
ACACIARIDGE
Qld
26
4304
SILKSTONE
Qld
27
5013
WINGFIELD
SA
28
4519
BEERWAH
Qld
29
5012
WOODVILLENORTH
SA
30
4305
RACEVIEW
Qld
31
4077
INALA
Qld
32
5084
KILBURN
SA
33
5108
PARALOWIE
SA
34
4311
LOWOOD
Qld
35
5163
HUNTFIELDHEIGHTS
SA
36
5168
OLDNOARLUNGA
SA
37
4341
REGENCYDOWNS
Qld
38
5031
MILEEND
SA
39
4560
MONTVILLE
Qld
40
5116
EVANSTON
SA
41
5023
SEATON
SA
70
ThreeGeelongpostcodeshavebeenincludedinthisgroup:Corio(3214),GeelongWest
(3218)andStAlbansPark(3219).ThewesternMelbournesuburbsofStAlbans(3021),
Sunshine(3020)andBraybrook(3019),aswellasthenorthernsuburbsofCoolaroo(3048),
Campellfield(3061)andBroadmedows(3047)aretheremainderofVictorianpostcodes
classifiedasgroup1postcodes.
Map26Group1postcodesingreaterMelbourneandGeelong
71
InthegreaterAdelaideareapostcodesclassifiedasgroup1(largerhouseholdswithlow
incomeandexperiencinghousingstress)arethepostcodesofEvanston(5116),Virginia
(5120),Paralowie(5108),Wingfield(5013),WoodvilleNorth(5012)andKilburn(5084)inthe
suburbsnorthofAdelaide.ItalsoincludesthepostcodeofSeaton(5023)andMileEnd
(5031)inthewest/innerwestandHuntfieldHeights(5163)andOldNoarlunga(5168)inthe
south.
Map27Group1postcodesingreaterAdelaide
72
InNSW,allofthegroup1postcodesarelocatedinthewesternsuburbsofSydney.The
postcodesare:Bankstown(2200),Villawood(2163),Guildford(2161),Woodpark(2164),
Merryland(2160),Holroyd(2142),Colyton(2760)andHebersham(2770).
Map28Group1postcodesingreaterSydney
73
InthemoredenselypopulatedSouthEastQueensland,group1postcodesincludethe
southernBrisbanesuburbsofInala(4077)andAcaciaRidge(4110),theIpswichpostcodesof
Raceview(4305)andSilkstone(4304),theinlandpostcodesofRegencyDowns(4341)and
Lowood(4311),theMortonBaypostcodesofBellmere(4510),DeceptionBay(4508)and
Lawnton(4501),aswellastheSunshineCoasthinterlandpostcodesofMontville(4560)and
Beerwah(4519).
Map29Group1postcodesinSouthEastQueensland
74
Group2,medianincomefamiliesexperiencinghousingstress,isalsoalargegroup(39
postcodes).Group2hasmorecoupledfamiliesandlesssoleparentsthangroup1.Italso
hasahighermedianweeklyincome($1246)and,onaverage,19%ofhouseholdshave
incomeoflessthan$600perweek.Thehousingstressoccurringinthesepostcodesis
largelyduetohighmortgagerepayments.44%ofhouseholdshavemortgagesandthe
medianmonthlymortgagerepaymentis$1773.
QueenslandpostcodesdominatethiscategorywhileNSWonlyhastwopostcodesinthis
group.ThismaybepartlyexplainedbyNSWpredominantlyhavinglowincomeandregional
postcodesintheir‘top50’andthatmedianincomefortheSouthEastQueensland
postcodesmaybeoverestimatedbecausetheyarecomparedtoQueensland’smedian
incomeasawholeratherthanthemedianincomeforSEQ.Bothissuesarediscussedin
section4.1above.
Map30Group2postcodesandtheirrelativedisconnectionnumbers
Table27belowranksallgroup2postcodesaccordingtotheirdisconnectionrates(1being
thehighest).
75
Table27Group2postcodesrankedfromhighesttolowestdisconnectionrates(proportionaltopopulation)
Rank Postcode
Name
State
1
3024
WYNDHAMVALE
Vic
2
3030
WERRIBEE
Vic
3
3338
MELTONSOUTH
Vic
4
3023
BURNSIDE
Vic
5
3337
MELTON
Vic
6
3029
TARNEIT
Vic
7
3803
HALLAM
Vic
8
2205
ARNCLIFFE
NSW
9
4132
MARSDEN
Qld
10
4131
LOGANLEA
Qld
11
2150
PARRAMATTA
NSW
12
5115
KUDLA
SA
13
3976
HAMPTONPARK
Vic
14
4506
MORAYFIELD
Qld
15
4301
REDBANKPLAINS
Qld
16
4209
PIMPAMA
Qld
17
4133
WATERFORD
Qld
18
5114
SMITHFIELDPLAINS
SA
19
5501
WILDHORSEPLAINS
SA
20
4207
BEENLEIGH
Qld
21
4227
VARSITYLAKES
Qld
22
4503
GRIFFIN
Qld
23
4300
SPRINGFIELD
Qld
24
4124
GREENBANK
Qld
25
4500
WARNER
Qld
26
5095
MAWSONLAKES
SA
27
4504
NARANGBA
Qld
28
5110
BURTON
SA
29
4118
REGENTSPARK
Qld
30
4505
BURPENGARY
Qld
31
5252
KANMANTOO
SA
32
4007
ASCOT
Qld
33
5255
STRATHALBYN
SA
34
4509
MANGOHILL
Qld
35
5107
PARAFIELDGARDENS
SA
36
5251
MOUNTBARKER
SA
37
5173
PORTWILLUNGA
SA
38
5351
COCKATOOVALLEY
SA
39
5011
WOODVILLESOUTH
SA
76
InVictoria,postcodesthathavebeencharacterisedasgroup2postcodesareallintheouter
suburbsofMelbourne.Inthesoutheast,therearethepostcodesofHallam(3803)and
HamptonPark(3976)andinthewest/northwesttherearetheareasofMelton(3337),
MeltonSouth(3338),Burnside(3023),WyndhamVale(3024),Tarneit(3029)andWerribee
(3030).
Map31Group2postcodesingreaterMelbourne
77
InSouthAustraliagroup2consistsofamixofAdelaidesuburbsandsmallerregionaltowns.
ItcoversthecentralAdelaidesuburbofWoodvilleSouth(5011),thenorthernsuburbsof
MawsonLakes(5095),ParafieldGardens(5107),Burton(5110),SmithfieldPlains(5114)and
Kudla(5115).ItalsoincludesCockatooValley(5351)intheBarossa,WildHorsePlains(5501)
ontheeasternshoreofGulfStVincent,PortWillunga(5173)andStrathalbyn(5255)onthe
FleurieuPeninsulaaswellasMountBarker(5251)andKanmantoo(5252)intheAdelaide
Hills.
Map32Group2postcodesingreaterAdelaide
78
TheonlytwoNSWpostcodesthathavebeenclassifiedasgroup2aretheSydneysuburbsof
Parramatta(2150)andArncliffe(2205).
Map33Group2postcodesingreaterSydney
79
SouthEastQueenslandhave17postcodesinthisgroupanditincludestheGoldCoast
suburbsofVarsityLakes(4227)andPimpana(4209),thesouthernBrisbanesuburbsof
Beenleigh(4207),Waterford(4133),Loganlea(4131),Greenbank(4124),RegentsPark
(4118),Marsden(4132),Springfield(4300)andRedbankPlains(4301).Italsoincludesthe
centralBrisbanepostcodeofAscot(4007)aswellasMorayafield(4506),Burpengary(4505),
Narangba(4504),MangoHill(4509),Griffin(4503),andWarner(4500)northofBrisbane.
Map34Group2postcodesinSouthEastQueensland
80
Group3,lowtomedianincomefamilieswithlowerhousingcostsbuthighertransportation
costs,isthesmallestofthethreefamilygroups.Thesefamiliestypicallyresideinregional
andruraltownswithrelativelylowhousingcosts(medianweeklyrentbeing$200and
medianmonthlymortgagerepaymentbeing$1500)butwhiletheirmedianweeklyincome
isgreatercomparedtogroup1,itremainsmodeston$1074.Furthermore,whilethisgroup
doesnottypicallyexperiencehousingstresstheydotypicallyhavegreatertransportcosts
duetotheirdependenceonprivatecarsfortransportation.NSWhasthemostpostcodesin
thisgroupaswellasthepostcodeswiththerelativelyhigherdisconnectionnumbers.
Map35Group3postcodesandtheirrelativedisconnectionnumbers
Table28belowranksallgroup3postcodesaccordingtotheirdisconnectionrates(1being
thehighest).
81
Table28Group3postcodesrankedfromhighesttolowestdisconnectionrates(proportionaltopopulation)
Rank Postcode
Name
State
1
2400
MOREE
NSW
2
2800
ORANGE
NSW
3
2663
JUNEE
NSW
4
2830
DUBBO
NSW
5
2705
LEETON
NSW
6
2680
GRIFFITH
NSW
7
2840
BOURKE
NSW
8
2795
BATHURST
NSW
9
2799
BLAYNEY
NSW
10
2821
NARROMINE
NSW
11
2640
TABLETOP
NSW
12
3189
MOORABBIN
Vic
13
3028
ALTONAMEADOWS
Vic
14
2870
PARKES
NSW
15
2650
WAGGAWAGGA
NSW
16
2350
ARMIDALE
NSW
17
2390
NARRABRI
NSW
18
2340
OXLEYVALE
NSW
19
2380
GUNNEDAH
NSW
20
3038
TAYLORSLAKES
Vic
21
2850
MUDGEE
NSW
22
2333
MUSWELLBROOK
NSW
23
3212
LARA
Vic
24
3250
COLAC
Vic
25
5606
PORTLINCOLN
SA
26
5277
PENOLA
SA
27
5607
KARKOO
SA
28
4343
GATTON
Qld
29
4014
VIRGINIA
Qld
30
5291
COMPTON
SA
31
4031
GORDONPARK
Qld
32
4127
DAISYHILL
Qld
33
5290
MOUNTGAMBIER
SA
82
OnlyfiveVictorianpostcodeshavebeenincludedinthisgroup,andthreeofthemare
suburbanpostcodeswithrelativelylowlevelsofhousingstress.TheMelbournesuburbsof
Moorabbin(3189),AltonaMeadows(3028)andTaylorsLakes(3038)haverelativelyhigh
medianincomesandlesshousingstress,comparedtootherMelbournesuburbswithhigh
disconnectionnumbers.However,webelievethatthesesuburbsaremoremixedwhenit
comestoagegroupsandlife-cyclestages.Whilehouseholdswithchildrenareprevalent
thereisalsoarelativelyhighnumberofhouseholdsthatowntheirhomesoutright.This
indicatesthatthepostcodeshaveamixofyoungfamilies,familieswitholderchildrenand
theelderly.TheVictorianpostcodesofLara(3212)andColac(3250),ontheotherhand,are
moretypicalforwhatweexpectedtofindforthisgroup.Housingstressisrelativelylowbut
costoftransportationishigher.
Map36Group3postcodesinVictoria
83
InSouthAustralia,fivepostcodeshavebeenallocatedtothisgroup.Twopostcodesonthe
EyrePeninsula,PortLincoln(5606)andKarkoo(5607),andthreepostcodesinthe
LimestoneCoastregionclosetotheVictorianborder:MountGambier(5290),Penola(5277)
andCompton(5291).
Map37Group3postcodesinSouthAustralia
84
NSWhasthehighestnumberofpostcodesforthisgroup.Themajorityofthesepostcodes
arelocatedinregionalcentresacrossNSW.FromAlbury(postcodeTabletop2640)closeto
theVictorianborder,toWaggaWaggaand(2650)Griffith(2680)intheRiverinaregion,to
Bourke(2840)inthenorth-west,toMoree(2400)innorthernNSW,toArmidale(2350)in
thenorthernTablelands,toDubbo(2380)andParkes(2870)onthewesternplainsto
Bathurst(2795)andOrange(2800)inthecentralTablelands.Otherregionaltownsare
Leeton(2705),Junee(2663),Gunnedah(2380),Narrabri(2390),Blayney(2799),Narromine
(2821),Mudgee(2850),OxleyVale(2340)andMuswellbrook(2333).
Map38Group3postcodesinNSW
85
SouthEastQueenslandhavefourpostcodesallocatedtothisgroup.Gatton(4343)inthe
LockyerValleyandthesuburbanpostcodesofVirginia(4014),GordonPark(4031)andDaisy
Hill(4127).
Map39Group3postcodesinSouthEastQueensland
86
4.3.2Smallerhouseholds
Groups4,5and6haveahigherproportionofsmallhouseholdscomparedtogroups1,2
and3.Smallerhouseholdsaretypicallyfoundclosetotertiaryeducation(students),in
inner-cityareaswithhighconcentrationofapartments(coupleswithoutchildrenandsole
parents)andinregionalandruraltowns(retireesandsoleparents).TheStVincentdePaul
Society’sRelativePriceIndexstudyhashighlightedconcernsinregardstocostpressures,
andhousinginparticular,facedbysmallerhouseholds:
“Therearealsoconcernsforoneparentfamiliesandlonepersonhouseholdsthat
arereliantonprivaterental.Notonlyhavethisgroupseenhighercostpressures,but
asignificantnumberofhouseholdsinthisgroupareinthelowerincomequintiles
andassuchhavelimitedabilitytoadjusttochangesinsuchcostpressures.”35
Map40Thelocationofpostcodesinthe‘top200’thatarecharacterisedasareaswithsmallerhouseholds
(groups4,5and6)
Map41belowshowsthesamepostcodesbutthesizeofthecircleindicateswhich
postcodeshavehigherandlowerdisconnectionnumberscomparedtotheotherpostcodes
intheirgroup.SouthAustralia,Victoriaand,inparticular,NSW,forexample,allhavegroup
3postcodeswithahighproportionofdisconnectionscomparedtoSouthEastQueensland.
35
StVincentdePaulSociety,TheRelativePriceIndexbyGavinDuftyandIanMacmillan,February2013,105
87
Map41Postcodesinthe‘top200’thatarecharacterisedasareaswithsmallerhouseholds(groups4,5and
6)andtheirrelativedisconnectionnumbers
Group4,low-incomesmallhouseholdsexperiencinghousingstress,isthesecondlargest
smallhouseholdgroup(31postcodes).Thisgroupincludesamixofstudents,younger
couples,soleparentsandretirees.InMelbourne(3000),Carlton(3053),Ultimo(2007)and
Woolloongabba(4102)themedianageisconsiderablylowercomparedtotherespective
state’smedianage.HousingcostsarehighintheseCBDandinnercitypostcodesandas28%
-49%ofthepopulationinthesepostcodeshadweeklyhouseholdincomesoflessthan$600
perweek,housingstressisacommonexperience.Wealsonotethatahigherproportionof
disconnectionsintheseareasislikelytoincludecustomersthatdonotreconnectinthe
samename,so-called‘’skippers’’,asthepopulationismoretransient.
Thisgroupalsoincludestheinner-citylocationsinSydneyandMelbourneofWaterloo
(2017),NorthMelbourne(3051)andCollingwood(3066).Thesepostcodeshaveamixof
highprivaterentalandpublichousingestates,resultinginahighproportionofhouseholds
withweeklyincomebelow$600despitealsohavingmanyhigh-incomeearners.Thehigh
rents,however,meanthatmanyofthehigherincomeearnersstillexperiencehousing
stress.InWaterlooandNorthMelbourne,forexample,26%ofhouseholdsspend30%or
moreofhouseholdincomeonrent.
88
Map42Group4postcodesandtheirrelativedisconnectionnumbers
Table29belowranksallgroup4postcodesaccordingtotheirdisconnectionrates(1being
thehighest).
89
Table29Group4postcodesrankedfromhighesttolowestdisconnectionrates(proportionaltopopulation)
Rank Postcode
Name
State
1
3022
ARDEER
Vic
2
3000
MELBOURNE
Vic
3
3066
COLLINGWOOD
Vic
4
3200
FRANKSTONNORTH
Vic
5
3051
NORTHMELBOURNE
Vic
6
3011
FOOTSCRAY
Vic
7
2017
WATERLOO
NSW
8
2485
TWEEDHEADS
NSW
9
5113
ELIZABETHPARK
SA
10
3915
HASTINGS
Vic
11
3053
CARLTON
Vic
12
2007
ULTIMO
NSW
13
4102
WOOLLOONGABBA
Qld
14
5608
WHYALLASTUART
SA
15
5253
NORTHERNHEIGHTS
SA
16
5112
ELIZABETHVALE
SA
17
4019
MARGATE
Qld
18
4511
NINGI
Qld
19
4567
NOOSAHEADS
Qld
20
4558
MAROOCHYDORE
Qld
21
4566
NOOSAVILLE
Qld
22
5165
CHRISTIESBEACH
SA
23
5007
BROMPTON
SA
24
4032
CHERMSIDE
Qld
25
5164
CHRISTIEDOWNS
SA
26
4575
BUDDINA
Qld
27
4215
LABRADOR
Qld
28
5015
BIRKENHEAD
SA
29
4020
REDCLIFFE
Qld
30
4507
BELLARA
Qld
31
5046
WARRADALE
SA
90
Victoriahasatotalofeightpostcodesinthisgroup.Fiveofthemareinner-citypostcodes:
Melbourne(3000),NorthMelbourne(3051),Carlton(5053)Collingwood(3066)and
Footscray(3011).TheoutersoutheasternsuburbofFrankstonNorth(3200)thathasahigh
numberofsoleparentsaswellasmoreelderlyresidentsisalsoincludedinthisgroup.The
twofinalpostcodesarethewesternsuburbofArdeer(3022)andHastings(3915)onthe
MorningtonPeninsula.TheybothhaveasimilarmixtoFrankstonNorthalthougha
somewhatyoungerpopulationandahighernumberofcouplefamiliesinthemix.
Map43Group4postcodesingreaterMelbourne
91
InSouthAustraliawehaveallocatedthepostcodeofWhyallaStuart(5608)ontheeast
coastoftheEyrePeninsula.Thepostcodehasarelativelyhighnumberofsoleparentsand
coupleswherebothpartnersarenotworking(indicatingretirees).IntermsofAdelaideand
surroundswehaveincludedthefollowingeightpostcodes:ElizabethPark(5113)and
ElizabethVale(5112)inthenorthernsuburbs,Birkenhead(5015)inPortAdelaide,theinner
citypostcodeofBrompton(5007),thesouthernsuburbofWarradale(5046),theouter
southernsuburbsofChristiesBeach(5165)andChristiesDowns(5164).Thefinalpostcodeis
NorthernHeights(5253)ontheMurrayRiver.
Allofthesepostcodes,exceptBrompton,havearelativelyhighproportionofsoleparentsas
wellaselderlyresidents.Althoughwestressthattherearevariationsbetweenthe
postcodes.Brompton,forexample,hasayoungerpopulationandarelativelyhigh
proportionoftenantsexperiencinghousingstress.
Map44Group4postcodesingreaterAdelaide
92
WehaveonlyallocatedthreeNSWpostcodestothisgroup.TweedHeads(2485),nearthe
GoldCoast(notincludedinthemapbelow),hasahighmedianageandahighproportionof
coupleswherebothpartnersarenotworking.Atthesametimeithasarelativelyhigh
proportionoftenantsexperiencinghousingstress.IninnercitySydney,thepostcodesof
Ultimo(2007)andWaterloo(2017)haveayoungerpopulationandahighproportionof
tenantsexperiencinghousingstress.
Map45Group4postcodesinSydney
93
IntheQueenslandpostcodesofNoosaville(4566),Bellara(4507),Maroochydore(4558),
NoosaHeads(4567),Ningi(4511),Margate(4019),Redcliffe(4020)andBuddina(4575),the
medianageissignificantlyhigherthanQueensland’smedianage(36)aswellashavinga
greaterproportionofcouplehouseholdswherebotharenotworking.Thisindicatesthat
thesepostcodeshaveahighnumberofretirees.Despiteahigherproportionofhouseholds
owningtheirhomesoutrightinthesepostcodescomparedtotheCBDandinner-city
postcodesdiscussedabove,housingstressisprevalentandthemajorityisinrelationto
rentals.InLabrador(4215)andChermside(4032)themedianageislowerandthereisa
greatermixofyounghouseholds,soleparentsandelderlyhouseholds.Thefinalpostcodeis
theinnercityareaofWoolloongabba(4102)wherethemedianage(31)isconsiderably
lowerbutnearly60%ofhouseholdsrenttheirhomesandhousingstressishigh.
Map46Group4postcodesinSouthEastQueensland
94
Group5,smallhouseholdswithmedianincomeexperiencinghousingstress,issomewhat
similartogroup4asitincludesamixofstudentsandyoungercouples.Whilethemedian
weeklyincomeforthisgroupis$1,522theincomedistributionshowsthatthetopearning
quartileaccountsforamuchsmallerproportionofearnersthanthelowestearningquartile.
InSydney(postcode2000),forexample,thehighestincomequartile(earning$75,000per
annumormore)accountsforapproximately20%ofearnerswhilethelowestquartile
(earninglessthan$21,400)accountsfor45%ofearners.36
Thisgroupincludestheinner-citypostcodesofSydney(2000),Chippendale(2008),Pyrmont
(2009),BondiBeach(2026),Fitzroy(3065),Docklands(3008),Southbank(3006),South
Melbourne(3205),SouthYarra(3141),Prahran(3181)Abbotsford(3067),GlenelgEast
(5045)Annerley(4103)andEastBrisbane(4169).
Themedianrentforthesepostcodesis$365perweekandhousingstresscausedbyhigh
rentrelativetoincomeisgreaterthanthestates’averagesinallpostcodesexcept
Abbotsford(3067).
Map47Group5postcodesandtheirrelativedisconnectionnumbers
Table30belowranksallgroup5postcodesaccordingtotheirdisconnectionrates(1being
thehighest).
36
ABS,Estimatesofpersonalincomeforsmallareas,2012-13(January2016),Table5Estimatesofpersonal
income,Totalincome(excludingGovernmentpensionsandallowances),2012-13,StatisticalAreaLevel2(a),
SA2117031337,Sydney-Haymarket-TheRocks
95
Table30Group5postcodesrankedfromhighesttolowestdisconnectionrates(proportionaltopopulation)
Rank Postcode
Name
State
1
3008
DOCKLANDS
Vic
2
2000
SYDNEY
NSW
3
3065
FITZROY
Vic
4
3205
SOUTHMELBOURNE
Vic
5
2008
CHIPPENDALE
NSW
6
3067
ABBOTSFORD
Vic
7
3006
SOUTHBANK
Vic
8
2009
PYRMONT
NSW
9
3181
PRAHRAN
Vic
10
3141
SOUTHYARRA
Vic
11
3055
BRUNSWICKWEST
Vic
12
2026
BONDIBEACH
NSW
13
4169
EASTBRISBANE
Qld
14
4564
MARCOOLA
Qld
15
5000
ADELAIDE
SA
16
4557
MOOLOOLABA
Qld
17
4103
ANNERLEY
Qld
18
5045
GLENELGEAST
SA
96
Victoriaisthestatewiththemostpostcodesinthisgroup.Alloftheeightpostcodesare
locatedininnercityMelbourne.Theyare:Fitzroy(3065),Docklands(3008),Southbank
(3006),SouthMelbourne(3205),SouthYarra(3141),Prahran(3181)Abbotsford(3067)and
BrunswickWest(3055).
Map48Group5postcodesinMelbourne
97
SouthAustraliahastwopostcodesinthisgroup.ThefirstisAdelaide(5000)wherethe
medianageislowand65%ofhouseholdsrenttheirhome,andthesecondistheseaside
suburbofGlenelgEastwherethemedianageishigherbuthousingstressamongsttenants
isstillrelativelyhigh(albeitlessthaninAdelaide).
Map49Group5postcodesinAdelaide
98
WehaveincludedfourSydneypostcodesinthisgroup:Sydney(2000),Chippendale(2008),
Pyrmont(2009)andBondiBeach(2026).Theyareallpostcodeswithalowmedianageand
approximately55%-65%ofhouseholdsrenttheirhome.
Map50Group5postcodesinSydney
99
InSouthEastQueenslandwehaveincludedtwoinnercitypostcodesaswellastwo
postcodesontheSunshineCoast.TheinnercitypostcodesofEastBrisbane(4169)and
Annerley(4103)havealowermedianageandover50%ofhouseholdsrenttheirhomes.
TheSunshineCoastpostcodesofMarcoola(4564)andMooloolaba(4557)haveahigher
medianagebutsimilarlevelofhousingstressamongsttenantstotheinnercitypostcodes.
Theyalsohaverelativelyhighhousingstressamongsthomebuyers.
Map51Group5postcodesinSouthEastQueensland
Group6,smallhouseholdswithlowtomedianincomewithlowerhousingcostsbutgreater
transportcosts,includesmostlypostcodesofruralandregionaltownsandisthelargestof
thesmallerhouseholdgroups(38postcodes).Housingcosts(rentinparticular)arerelatively
low(medianrentof$160perweek)butthemedianweeklyhouseholdincomeisalsoonly
$812.Themedianageis41andastheproportionofcoupleswherebothdonotworkis
high,itindicatesthathighproportionsareretireesontheagedpension.
AlloftheVictorianpostcodesinthisgrouphaveahigherproportionofsoleparentsthanthe
state’saverage.ThisisalsothecaseforallNSWpostcodesexcept(Cootamundra,Cowraand
Forbes)andthreepostcodesinSouthAustralian(Berri,BarmeraandPortAugustaWest).
Thecombinationofhighproportionsofpensionersandsoleparentsinthecommunitymay
indicatehighout-migrationratesbyothergroupsor,alternatively,highout-migrationby
othergroupsandhighin-migrationbypensioners.TheKempseyShire,forexample,have
hadapositivenetmigrationbasedon2011censusdata,buttheagegroupwiththehighest
netmigrationwaspersonsaged55to64years.37Whileretireesmayhavelowertransport
37
Seewww.profile.id.com.au/kempsey/migration-by-age
100
coststhanpeopletravellingtowork,thelowincomesinthesepostcodesmeanthat
expensessuchascarregistrationandpetrolwillsignificantlyimpactontheoverall
householdbudget.
Wealsonotethatsomeoftheseruraltownsmayalsohavecomplexsocialandeconomic
issuesthatimpactonenergyhardshipanddisconnectionrates.CedunainSouthAustralia
andWalgettinNSW,forexample,havesignificantaboriginalcommunitieswhichare
documentedtohaveahigherdegreeofdisadvantage.38Cedunaisalsothefirsttrialsitefor
theFederalGovernment’scontroversialincomemanagementprogramthatissuescashless
cardsthatquarantine80%ofaperson’sbenefitpaymentsandcannotbeusedtopurchase
alcoholorforgambling.39Asitisbeyondthescopeofthisprojecttoexamineallfactorsof
socialandeconomicdisadvantagethatcanresultinahighernumberofpeoplebeing
disconnected,wecautionagainstplacingtotalemphasisontheincomeandexpenditure
indicatorspresentedinthisreporttounderstandcausesforelectricitydisconnectionsin
specificruralcommunities.
Map52Group6postcodesandtheirrelativedisconnectionnumbers
Table31belowranksallgroup6postcodesaccordingtotheirdisconnectionrates(1being
thehighest).
38
See,forexample,theGovernment’sClosingtheGap2016reportavailableat
http://closingthegap.dpmc.gov.au/
39
See,forexample,ABCNEWS,Ceduna’scashlesswelfarecardtrialexperiencesteethingproblems,Natalie
Whiting,4April2016athttp://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-04/ceduna's-welfare-card-trial-switchedon/7295864
101
Table31Group6postcodesrankedfromhighesttolowestdisconnectionrates(proportionaltopopulation)
Rank Postcode
Name
State
1
2880
BROKENHILL
NSW
2
2832
WALGETT
NSW
3
5259
NARRUNG
SA
4
2641
LAVINGTON
NSW
5
2820
WELLINGTON
NSW
6
3840
MORWELL
Vic
7
2827
CURBAN
NSW
8
2700
NARRANDERA
NSW
9
2440
SOUTHKEMPSEY
NSW
10
3842
CHURCHILL
Vic
11
2871
FORBES
NSW
12
3355
WENDOUREE
Vic
13
2360
INVERELL
NSW
14
5690
CEDUNA
SA
15
2470
CASINO
NSW
16
2794
COWRA
NSW
17
3564
ECHUCA
Vic
18
2460
LAWRENCE
NSW
19
5700
PORTAUGUSTAWEST
SA
20
3556
EAGLEHAWK
Vic
21
3555
KANGAROOFLAT
Vic
22
3550
BENDIGO
Vic
23
2590
COOTAMUNDRA
NSW
24
3825
MOE
Vic
25
3465
MARYBOROUGH
Vic
26
2430
TAREE
NSW
27
3356
SEBASTOPOL
Vic
28
5343
BERRI
SA
29
5271
NARACOORTE
SA
30
5330
WAIKERIE
SA
31
4570
TUCHEKOI
Qld
32
5345
BARMERA
SA
33
5333
LOXTON
SA
34
5341
RENMARK
SA
35
5556
WALLAROO
SA
36
4034
ZILLMERE
Qld
37
5453
CLARE
SA
38
5554
KADINA
SA
102
Victoriahas10postcodesinthisgroup.Moe(3825),Morwell(3840)andChurchill(3842)in
theLaTrobeValley,Wendouree(3355),Sebastopol(3356),Maryborough(3465),Kangaroo
Flat(3555)andBendigo(3550)intheGoldfieldsregion,andEchuca(3564)ontheMurray
River.
AlloftheseVictorianpostcodeshaveahigherproportionofsoleparentsaswellascouple
familieswherebotharenotworkingcomparedtotheVictorianaverage.Theyarealso
postcodeswhereahighproportionofhouseholdshaveaweeklyincomeoflessthan$600.
InMaryborough,forexample,43%ofhouseholdshaveanincomethatislessthan$600
(comparedto24%inVictoriaasawhole).
Map53Group6postcodesinVictoria
103
Twelveofthegroup6postcodesareinSouthAustralia.Thesearetheremotetownsof
Ceduna(5690)andPortAugustaWest(5700)ontheEyrePeninsula,thetwoold“copper
towns”ofWallaroo(5556)andKadina(5554)onthewesternsideoftheYorkPeninsula,
Clare(5453)intheClareValley,Waikerie(5330),Barmera(5345),Berri(5343)andLoxton
(5333)intheRiverlandregion,Narrung(5259)ontheNarrungPeninsula,andNaracoorte
(5271)intheLimestoneCoastregionneartheVictorianborder.
ThemedianageinsomeofthesepostcodesissignificantlyhigherthantheSouthAustralian
median.InWallaroo,forexample,themedianageis50.Wallaroo,Kadina,Renmark,
Barmera,Berri,NarrungandWaikeriealsohaveahighproportionofcouplefamilieswhere
bothpartnersarenotworking.Therearealsoahighproportionofhouseholdsrentingtheir
homesinsomeofthesepostcodes.InCeduna,PortAugustaWestandBerriapproximately
40%ofhouseholdrenttheirhomes.InNarrung,wherethemedianrentisonly$80per
week,33%ofhouseholdsrenttheirhomes.
Map54Group6postcodesinSouthAustralia
104
InNSWfourteenpostcodeshavebeencategorizedasgroup6types.TheseareLavington
(2641)innorthAlbury,theoutbacktownofBrokenHill(2880),Narrandera(2700)and
Cootamundra(2590)intheRiverina,Cowra(2794)andForbes(2871)incentralNSW,
Wellington(2820)andCurban(2827)ontheWesternPlains,Walgett(2832)andInverell
(2360)innorthernNSW,andCasino(2470),Lawrence(2460),SouthKempsey(2440)and
Taree(2430)ontheNorthCoast.
WiththeexceptionofWalgettandLavington,themedianageishigherthan40yearsinall
oftheNSWpostcodesinthisgroup.AllpostcodesexceptCootamundra,CowraandForbes
alsohaveahigherproportionofsoleparentscomparedtotheNSWaverage.Onlytwoof
thepostcodes,WalgettandLavington,haveahigherproportionofhouseholdsrentingthan
thestate’saverage.
Map55Group6postcodesinNSW
105
OnlytwopostcodesinthemoredenselypopulatedSouthEastQueenslandhavebeen
categorisedasgroup6postcodes.ThefirstoneisTuchekoi(4570)ontheedgeoftheNoosa
hinterland.ThesecondpostcodeisZillmere(4034)inBrisbane’snorthernsuburbs.Housing
stressinZillmereisrelativelylowbutthepostcodecouldhavebeenclassifiedasgroup3as
well.Gatton(group3)andZillmerehavesimilarsocioeconomicindicatorsbutasthe
medianageishigherinZillmerethanitisinGatton,Zillmerehasbeenclassifiedasgroup6
whileGattonisingroup3.Again,westressthatthegroupclassificationsareindicativeonly
andthatsomepostcodescouldpotentiallybeassessedtobelongtoadifferentgroup.The
mainpurposeofthegroupclassificationsistocreateaframeworkthatallowsustodiscuss
keycharacteristicsofpostcodeswithhighdisconnectionnumbers.
Map56Group6postcodesinSouthEastQueensland
106
4.4Shorttermortransitionalfinancialstressvs.ongoingfinancialhardship
Withintheframeworkofthesixgroupsdiscussedaboveitisclearthatenergyhardshipand
disconnectionscanbeatransitionalissueforsomecustomerswhileitisalongtermissue
forothers.Studentswithhighrentalcosts,forexample,maynotexperienceenergy
affordabilityissuesoncetheirstudiesarecompleted.Lowincomefamiliesorsmall
householdsinhousingstressduetorentalcosts,ontheotherhand,arelikelytohavean
ongoingproblemwithenergyhardshipandpotentialdisconnections.Inthemiddleofthis
continuumarefamiliesandsmallhouseholdsexperiencinghousingstressduetohigh
mortgagerepayments.Theywillcontinuetofacethefinancialpressuresforsometime,but
asthemortgagegetspaiddownthepressureislikelytoease.
Thepostcodesthathavethehighestdisconnectionratesmayalsochangesomewhatover
time.Someareaswillbecomegentrified,somecommunitiesmayfacemajorlabourmarket
changesandthecostofhousingcangoupordownandthusbecomesuitablefordifferent
householdtypes.Thatsaid,theanalysisshowsthatthereareclearandmajordifferences
betweenareasthathavehighdisconnectionratesandareasthatdonot,andthis
informationcanbeusedtoalleviatetheimpactonenergyhardshipandtoreduce
disconnectionratesinareasatrisk.
Insummary,allfourjurisdictionshavehighdisconnectionpostcodesconsistingofthesix
householdgroupsbuttherearedifferencesintermsofwhichgroupsareoverrepresented
inthestates’‘top50’postcodes.InNSW,andtosomeextentSouthAustralia,low-income
householdsinruralandregionalareasexperiencehighlevelsofdisconnection.InVictoria
andSouthEastQueenslandthe‘top50’areoverrepresentedbysuburbanhouseholds
facinghousingstress.Again,thisdoesnotmeanthatsuburbanhouseholdsexperiencing
housingstressinNSWarenotathighriskofdisconnection,itsimplymeansthatruraland
regionaldisadvantageismoreprevalentinNSWcomparedto(thesmaller)state/areaof
VictoriaandSouthEastQueensland.Therearealsomoreelderlypeopleinhigh
disconnectionpostcodesinSouthAustraliaandSouthEastQueensland.InVictoria,onthe
otherhand,highdisconnectionpostcodestendtohaveyoungerresidents.
107
5.Conclusion
Whilethisstudyshowsthatcommunitieswithahighdegreeofsocialdisadvantageare
morelikelytohavehighdisconnectionnumbers,italsohighlightsthattherearehouseholds
athighriskofexperiencingdisconnectioninareaswithahighlevelofsocialadvantage.
InregardstoGroup1(largerhouseholdswithlowincomeandahighdegreeofhousing
stress)only2outofthe41postcodeswereclassifiedasareasofsocialadvantagebythe
JesuitSocialServicesandCatholicSocialServices’Droppingofftheedge(DOTE)2015
study.40Similarly,only2outofthe38postcodesclassifiedasGroup6(smallerhouseholds
withlowtomedianincomeandlowhousingstress)areareasofsocialadvantage.Inrelation
tolarger(Group2)andsmaller(Group5)householdswithmedianincomeandahighdegree
ofhousingstress,however,alargeproportionofthepostcodeswithhighdisconnection
numbersareregardedassociallyadvantagedareas.
Table32belowshowsthetotalnumberofpostcodesforeachofthegroupsaswellasthe
numberofpostcodesineachgroupthatareclassifiedasadvantagedordisadvantagedby
theDOTEstudy.
Table32Numberofsociallydisadvantagedandadvantagedpostcodes(asperDOTEstudyclassifications)for
eachgroup
Group
Total#postcodes
#disadvantaged
#advantaged
postcodes
postcodes
Group1
41
39
2
Group2
39
28
11
Group3
33
27
6
Group4
31
24
7
Group5
18
2
16
Group6
38
36
2
Total
200
156
44
Furthermore,astheDOTEstudyusesfourcategoriestoclassifyanareasdegreeof
disadvantage/advantage(mostdisadvantaged,disadvantaged,advantagedandmost
advantaged)wenotethatonly9outofour‘Top200’postcodesareareasclassifiedasmost
advantagedandthat5ofthoseoccurinGroup5(innercitypostcodeswithayounger
populationandhighrents).Forthesociallydisadvantagedpostcodes,ontheotherhand,the
mostdisadvantagedclassificationwasprevalent.InGroup1,31postcodesareareas
classifiedashavingmostdisadvantageandinGroup6,33postcodesare.
Whiletheaimwouldalwaysbethatnohouseholdsgetdisconnectedfromelectricitydueto
aninabilitytopay,weacknowledgethatassistanceandmeasurestoreducethenumberof
40
JesuitSocialServicesandCatholicSocialServices,Droppingofftheedge(DOTE)2015,availableat
www.dote.org.au
108
disconnectionsoccurringneedtobetargetedinordertoreachhouseholdsmostatrisk,as
wellasthosemostatriskofon-goingfinancialhardshipandmultipledisconnections.
Ourrecommendationsarethusdirectedatenergypolicymakersandenergyregulatorsat
bothstateandCommonwealthlevel,aswellassocialpolicymeasuresthataddressthe
underlyingpovertythatisamajorcauseofdisconnection.
Recommendations
1.Recommendationsdirectedatstategovernments
1.1Concessionarrangements
ThegovernmentsinSouthAustralian,NSWandQueenslandshouldintroducepercentage
basedelectricityconcessions.Thiswillprovideproportionalsupportbasedontheelectricity
costsfacedbyconsumers.
Withtheincreasingtakeupofsolar,batteriesandotherenergymanagementtechnologiesa
movetopercentage-basedconcessionsiscrucialtoensurethatconcessionsarebasedon
theactualbillpaid.
TheQueenslandGovernmentshouldextendeligibilityforenergyconcessionstoHealthCare
Card(HCC)holders.
1.2Reliefschemes
TheVictorianGovernmentshouldsimplifytheapplicationandapprovalprocessofthe
UtilityReliefGrant(URG)scheme.Theschemecurrentlyhasaslowandburdensome
applicationprocessandimprovingthisprocessiscrucialtolowerdisconnectionratesin
Victoria.
TheNSWGovernmentshouldimmediatelyreviewitsEnergyAccountsPaymentAssistance
(EAPA)scheme.RelyingondeliveryofEAPAvouchersthroughcommunitywelfareagencies
limitsthescheme’scoverageandmoreassistanceinruralandregionalNSWisclearly
neededtoreducedisconnectionnumbersinthesecommunities.
1.3Stateoperatedenergysavingsprograms
ThegovernmentsinSouthAustralian,NSW,VictoriaandQueenslandshouldtargettheir
energyefficiencyprogramstoareasthatneedassistancewithenergybills.Theseprograms
shouldinpartfocusonpostcodeswithlargerhouseholds(i.e.highconsumptionfamilies)
andhighdisconnectionnumbers.
1.4Energyefficiencystandards
Stategovernmentsshoulddevelopandrequireminimumenergyefficiencystandardsforall
publicandprivaterentalproperties.
109
1.5Stategovernmentfundedand/ordeliverededucationprograms
ThegovernmentsinSouthAustralian,NSW,VictoriaandQueenslandshouldensurethat
educationprogramsadequatelyinformhouseholdsaboutconcessionarrangements,access
toenergyretailerhardshipprograms,reliefschemesandotherrelevantsupportmeasures.
Thisisparticularlyimportantinareaswithahighproportionofsmartmetersasremote
disconnectionsclearlyimpactondisconnectioncompletionratesandthefrequencywith
whichhouseholdsexperiencemultipledisconnections.
Educationprogramsshouldalsotargetdisadvantagedcommunitiestoenablehouseholdsto
activelyandconfidentlyparticipateintheenergyretailmarket(includingbeingabletoshop
aroundforabetterdeal).
2.RecommendationsdirectedattheCommonwealthGovernment
2.1Incomesecurity
Energypolicyandregulatorymeasuresalonecannotpreventhouseholdsfrombeing
disconnected.Increasedsocialsecuritypaymentsarenecessarytohelphouseholdsoutof
poverty.Alargeproportionofthepostcodeswithhighdisconnectionnumbersareareas
withyoungerhouseholds,includingyoungcouplefamiliesandsoleparents.Weurgethe
GovernmenttoincreaseincomesupportpaymentssuchasNewstartandtheYouth
Allowance.
2.2Energyefficiencyandrenewableenergypolicies
TheCommonwealthGovernmentshouldusetheirenergyefficiencyandrenewableenergy
policiestoassistcommunitieswithhighdisconnectionnumbersreducetheirenergycosts.
2.3Carbonemissionreductionpolicies
IndevelopingpoliciestoreducecarbonemissionstheCommonwealthGovernmentshould
assesstheimpactthesepolicieswillhaveonhouseholdsinareaswithhighdisconnection
numbers,anddevelopappropriatecompensationmeasuresasrequired.
3.Recommendationsdirectedatregulatorswithresponsibilitiesintheenergyretail
market
3.1Monitoringandreporting
Energyregulatorsshouldcollectinformationandreportoncustomernumbersdisconnected
multipletimesbythesameretailer.
3.2ImprovementstotheNationalEnergyCustomerFramework(NECF)
TheNECFshouldbeamendedtoensurethatretailersmustofferpaymentarrangementsto
allhouseholdsratherthanjustthosetheretailerhasassessedtobeinfinancialhardship.
110
3.3Disadvantagedcustomersinthe‘new’energymarket
Themarketledrolloutofsmartmeterswillincreasethecompletionrateofdisconnections
andresultinmorecustomersbeingmorefrequentlydisconnected.Inordertoprovide
retailers,aswellasmeterdataserviceproviders,withastrongincentivetofollowdue
processespriortodisconnectingcustomers,theNECFshouldbeamendedtoincludea
WrongfulDisconnectionPaymentthatmarketparticipants,foundnottohavefollowedthe
requiredprocesses,areobligedpaytheaffectedcustomer.
4.Recommendationsdirectedatenergyretailersandlocalgovernments
4.1Developlocaloutreachprograms
Theseprogramsshouldbedevelopedtoreachhouseholdsinareaswithahighlevelof
multipledisconnections.Retailersand/orlocalcouncilsshouldinitiateoutreachprogramsto
effectivelyreachandassistthesecommunitiesensuringtheyareawareofavailablesupport.
111