Land policies in Brazil:
Questions of interest
Gilberto Câmara, INPE
Licence: Creative Commons By Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/
Crop Year 2002/2003
Annual Crop – 1 Crop per season
Annual Crop – 2 Crops per season
source: Bernardo Rudorff (INPE)
Sugarcane
Crop Year 2010/2011
Annual Crop – 1 Crop per season
Annual Crop – 2 Crops per season
source: Bernardo Rudorff (INPE)
Sugarcane
MATO GROSSO – Sorriso: Crop Year 2002/2003
source: Bernardo Rudorff (INPE)
Annual Crop - 1 Crop
Annual Crop - 2 Crops
MATO GROSSO – Sorriso: Crop Year 2010/2011
source: Bernardo Rudorff (INPE)
Annual Crop - 1 Crop
Annual Crop - 2 Crops
Crop Year 2002/2003
Annual Crop – 1 Crop per season
Annual Crop – 2 Crops per season
Sugarcane
source: Bernardo Rudorff (INPE)
Crop Year 2010/2011
Annual Crop – 1 Crop per season
Annual Crop – 2 Crops per season
Sugarcane
source: Bernardo Rudorff (INPE)
SÃO PAULO – Barretos: Crop Year 2002/2003
1
source: Bernardo Rudorff (INPE)
Annual Crop - 1 Crop
Annual Crop - 2 Crops
Sugarcane
SÃO PAULO – Barretos: Crop Year 2010/2011
1
source: Bernardo Rudorff (INPE)
Annual Crop - 1 Crop
Annual Crop - 2 Crops
Sugarcane
Tradeoffs in double cropping?
27/2/13 | EDF-MMA
11
source: Avery Cohn (NCAR)
Tradeoffs in double cropping?
Early Rainy
Season
Late Rainy
Season
Increase in
soya prices
No trend
1st crop ↑
2nd crop ↓
Decrease in
soya prices
1st crop ↓
2nd crop ↑
No trend
27/2/13 | EDF-MMA
12
source: Avery Cohn (NCAR)
Are biofuels replacing food production in Brazil?
13
source: B. Rudorff, INPE
Are biofuels replacing food production in Brazil?
100%
3%
1%
90%
26%
80%
44%
51%
70%
71%
70%
65%
59%
60%
1%
85%
1%
50%
40%
30%
1%
3%
1%
3%
1%
3%
20%
10%
1%
3%
37%
24%
26%
7%
41%
17%
48%
98%
98%
1%
1%
2008
2009
38%
30%
26%
12%
0%
2000
2001
Área Agrícola
2002
2003
Cana-de-açúcar
2004
Citrus
2005
2006
Pastagem
2007
Vegetação Arbórea
Brazil: Do biofuels cause indirect land change?
Brazil: Projected direct land change from biofuels (2020)
source: Lapola et al (PNAS, 2010)
Brazil: Projected indirect land change from biofuels
(2020)
source:
Lapola
etetalal(PNAS,
source:
Lapola
(PNAS,2010)
2010)
Bernardo Strassburg (Instituto Internacional para Sustentabilidade)
Current productivity : 118 million Animal Units;
• Potential sustainable carrying capacity: 367 mi Animal Units;
•

Current productivity only 32-34% of potential
Current Productivity
Potential Productivity
Bernardo Strassburg (Instituto Internacional para Sustentabilidade)
Results
Potential Allocation in 2040 that fulfil all demands
Brazil has already enough
cleared land for all landrelated needs, respecting
environmental constraints,
up to at least 2040;
An increase from 32-34%
to 49-52% would suffice to
meet all future demands
without further
deforestation
Sustainability?
NPV (net present value) of
land in Amazonia for cattle
ranching
Land speculation
Extensive ranching is only
profitable for large farms
source: Bowman et al. (Land Use
Policy, 2012)
Land purchase
Regulation
No regulation
NPV (net present value) of land in Amazonia
for cattle ranching
source: Silva and Barreto (Imazon, 2011)