ASSESSMENT OF CARBON STOCK CHANGE IN FORESTS – ADOPTING IPCC LULUCF GOOD PRACTICE GUIDANCE IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC EMIL CIENCIALA1, VLADIMÍR HENŽLÍK2 ,VLADIMÍR ZATLOUKAL1 1 Institute of Forest Ecosystem Research, 1544, CZ–254 01Jílové u Prahy, 2Forest Management Institute, Brandýs nad Labem, Czech Republic, [email protected] CIENCIALA, E., HENŽLÍK, V., ZATLOUKAL, V.: Assessment of carbon stock change in forests – adopting IPCC LULUCF Good Practice Guidance in the Czech Republic. Lesn. Čas. – Forestry Journal, 52(1–2): 17–28, 2006, 9 fig., ref. 11. Original paper. ISSN 0323–1046 This contribution describes the optional revision of the methodology to assess carbon stock change in the Czech forests following the newly adopted Good Practice Guidance (GPG) for the LULUCF sector (IPCC 2003). The revision aims at effective utilization of available source data in the country, while minimizing uncertainly and complying with the requirements of GPG. The key source of data on forests in the country is that of forest management plans (FMP), which has been used for any recent national and international statistics on the Czech forests so far. Other source of data in the country is the sample-based (statistical) forest inventory, which ended its first cycle in 2004. The proposed revision uses FMP data to assess merchantable timber volume in the individual years since 1990, classified by major tree species and age classes. Whole-tree biomass and carbon stock is calculated using tree-specific expansion and conversion factors that were derived from available tree-level data (permanent research plots or statistical forest inventory). Finally, stock change is defined as a difference of carbon stock between subsequent years. The study presents and discusses the optional approach of forest carbon stock change assessment in comparison with the ongoing revision of the default method and it’s in the most recent Czech emission inventory. The preliminary results for the period of 1990 to 2003 indicate that the assessed change of carbon stock held in tree biomass was higher than previously reported, mostly due to the in the past unaccounted components of tree biomass. The data also suggests that the cap accountable for the Czech Republic for the optional activity of forest management under the Kyoto Protocol Art. 3.4 would be safely exceeded, provided the trend would remain unchanged during the 1st Commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. Keywords: carbon accounting, forest inventory, biomass expansion factors, Kyoto Protocol 1. Introduction The growing concern about the climate change and its impact on global economy and environment puts pressure on developed societies to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The initial international effort at early 90s brought up the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which set up the obligation of the parties to monitor and report their GHG emissions. In 1997, the negotiations under UNFCCC resulted in the first international commitment to reduce emissions – the Kyoto Protocol that after a lengthy and complicated ratification process entered in force in 2005. A specifically challenging topic of the international negotiation was the contribution of the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector, which is an integral part of national emission inventories. This is because this is the only sector that includes a sink component of terrestrial ecosystems as compared to industrial categories of emission inventory that represent sources. Specific to LULUCF sector is also the very challenging methodology of accounting. To assist the assessment of LULUCF emission inventory, UNFCCC adopted the new comprehensive Good Practice Guidance (GPG) for the LULUCF sector (IPCC 2003) to aid and guide preparation of the emission inventory under both UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. Emission inventory methods may differ ranging from simple approaches and default factors up to country-specific detailed methodologies, the section of which depends on available data and auxiliary information. Accordingly, the methods are ranked into lower or higher tiers. It is good practice to opt for and apply higher-tier methods once the data would support them. Specifically important is to apply the higher-tier methods for the so-called key categories, which are those contributing most to the total emission inventory of a party, either by their level or trend. In the Czech Republic, the only key-category of the LULUCF sector deserving such attention is “Changes in forest and other woody biomass stocks”. In this paper, we examine an alternative approach for this category with two different technical solutions, namely, namely the stockchange method to estimate carbon held in living biomass (IPCC 2003). The previous Czech National Inventory Reports (NIR, FOTT et al. 2005) used the so-called default method to estimate the emissions (sinks) for the above category. The default method applies a separate estimation of increment and removals. This was complemented with nationally specific conversion factors based on the study of Henzlik and Zatloukal (1994) and described e.g. in PRETEL and VACHA (2003) and in the annual NIRs (FOTT et al. 2005). Also the default method is currently under revision, however, it is not presented in this study. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the approach of carbon stock estimation based of the stock change method with its two different technical solutions, estimate the carbon stock change in living biomass for the period of 1990 to 2003 and compare the results with the values reported in the Czech National Inventory Reports (NIR). We provide the result interpretation and make recommendations for the coming compilation of the LULUCF emission inventory. 2. Material and methods 2.1. Forest land The area of forest land may differ depending on the applied definition of forest. Most commonly, forest land corresponds to cadastral categorization in a country. Thereby, forest land also includes un-stocked areas such as roads, cleared boundary lines, seedling nurseries etc, which mostly serves or supports forestry activities. According to Good Practice Guidance (GPG) for the Land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector (IPCC 2003); forest land should represent those areas that contain forest defined for the purpose of emission inventory. With respect to the Kyoto Protocol requirements, the Marrakech Accords (7th Conference of Parties to UNFCCC – United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and to its Kyoto Protocol) requires, among others, that parties would adopt forest definition within the following parameters: minimum area of forest land of 0.05 to 1 ha with tree crown cover (or equivalent stocking level) of more than 10–30% with trees that have potential to reach a minimum height of 2–5 m at maturity in situ. Additionally, definition should include information on minimum width to classify woody vegetation as forests. The most likely forest definition in the Czech Republic will use a minimum area of 0.5 ha, 10% crown cover, 2 m tree height at maturity and a minimum width of 20 meters. In the sense of these thresholds, the only applicable forest definition in line with GPG is the stocked area including temporary clearings resulting from basic forest management operations, such as final cut, but excluding the un-stocked areas as defined above. Such definition of forest area differs from that commonly used for reporting the forest resource information of the country elsewhere. The information on stocked forest area usable for emission inventory can be obtained from the database of forest management plans (FMP), which is administered by the Forest Management Institute (FMI), Brandys n. Labem. This information is released annually in the so-called “Green Reports” on the state of forests and forestry published by the Ministry of Agriculture. The information is passed to the Czech Statistical Office (CSO), which officially reports both the stocked areas and total forest land corresponding to cadastral information. The development of total forests area in the Czech Republic since 1990 is shown Figure 1. The stocked areas are also available on the level of major tree species and age class. Forest area (mill. ha) 2.70 2.65 Stocked Cadastral 2.60 2.55 2.50 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 Year Figure 1. Development of forest area since 1990 in the Czech Republic: the stocked area corresponds to the forest area definition in line with the GPG suggestions for the emission inventory, while the cadastral area is the forest area commonly reported on Czech forests elsewhere. 2.2. Growing stock The available data on forest growing stock in the Czech Republic for the period required for reporting carbon stock changes (annually since 1990) are those of FMP, which are administered centrally in FMI. Each forest stand with area above 50 ha must be managed according to its plan, which must be updated in 10-year intervals. Smaller units also enter the central database, as they have to follow a simplified set of management recommendations that are also updated in 10-year intervals. FMP data contain, among others, merchantable volume under bark per tree species, age class and area. For the purpose of regional and country-level generalization, tree species are categorized into four major groups, namely those of beech (all broadleaved species except oaks), oak (all oak species), pine (pines and larch) and spruce (all conifers besides pines and larch). Such data are available since 1999, while for previous years, growing stock volumes were only available for the merged categories of broadleaved and coniferous trees. Since the actual areas under individual species was available for all years, the corresponding species volume share was recalculated on the basis of the average growing stock per hectare and age class during the period 1999 to 2003 ( Figure 2). In this way, the volumes of broadleaves species were separated into beech and oak and those of conifers into pine and spruce also for the period prior 1999. The aggregated growing stock volume per species group during 1990 to 2003 is shown in Figure 3. 500 3 Merchantable volume (m /ha) 3 Merchantable volume (m /ha) 400 300 200 100 Beech Oak 0 0 50 100 Age (years) 150 200 400 300 200 100 0 0 Pine Spruce 50 100 Age (years) 150 200 700 600 3 Growing stock (mill. m u.b.) Figure 2. The reported merchantable volume per hectare for broadleaved (left) and coniferous (right) tree species – average for the years 1999 to 2003 (lines) with spread statistics indicated by over-imposed box plots. 500 400 300 200 100 0 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 Beech Oak Pine Spruce Year Figure 3. Total growing stock of merchantable timber under bark as reported from FMPs for 1990 to 2003 classified by the major groups of species. Also available at FMI are the data from the first cycle of the National Forest Inventory (NFI), which was conducted during 2001 to 2004. NFI used classical sample-based approach, i.e., it represent classical statistical inventory on tree level. The first preliminary results of NFI were made available during 2005 (www.uhul.cz). The NFI data were not directly used in this study to calculate carbon stock. However, a subset of NFI data from Karlovarsky region (that was made available by FMI for testing for the authors of this study) was used to show its potential utilization for forming the species-specific conversion and expansion factors. 2.3. Estimating carbon stock held in tree biomass The proposed revision includes two approaches of estimating carbon stock held in tree biomass from the available data of merchantable volume per species and age class. The first option is to construct species-specific age-dependent biomass conversion-expansion factors (CBEF) defined as W CBEFk = AB = Vmerch m n j i m ∑∑W i, j [1] ∑V j j where WAB (Mg) is the dry weight biomass of the considered component and Vmerch (m3) is the merchantable tree wood volume under bark. For computation of stand level CBEFs, W and V represents the sum of the estimated biomass and merchantable volume of m trees measured in the given sample plot, where each tree j may contain n biomass components i. The age dependence was built in as a functional relationship as used, e.g., by LEHTONEN et al. (2004), i.e. CBEF = p1 + p 2 * e − Age / p 3 [2] where p1, p2, and p3 are parameters. The biomass equations applied for individual tree species were taken from JOOSTEN et al. (2004), CIENCIALA et al. (2005) and WIRTH et al. (2004b) for beech, pine and spruce, respectively. Since no trustable biomass function was available for oak, the default (IPCC 2003) constant expansion factor of 1.4 and conventional density of 0.58 t/m3 was applied for this species group. The CBEF approach requires a representative dataset of major tree species, ideally that of the recently conducted statistical NFI. However, as these source data were not available from FMI, we demonstrate the approach on the available database of the permanent research plots (PRP). These tree-level data included 10.7, 6.9 and 51 thousands of trees for beech, pine and spruce, although unfavourably distributed over age (). Because of the limited data, specifically at younger age classes, the function of age [2] was fitted to stand data of age above 30 years, and the parameter p3 was held constant as in LEHTONEN et al. 2004. 1000 900 0.08 800 0.05 500 800 0.12 700 0.10 600 400 300 0.03 200 0.02 200 100 0.01 100 50 100 Age (years) 150 0.00 200 0.08 500 0.04 0 0 0.14 Pine 400 0.06 300 0.04 Proportion per Bar 0.06 600 Proportion per Bar 0.07 700 Count 1000 0.09 Beech Count 900 0.02 0 0 50 100 Age (years) 0.00 150 5000 Spruce 4000 0.09 0.08 Count 0.06 0.05 0.04 2000 0.03 Proportion per Bar 0.07 3000 0.02 1000 0.01 0 0 50 100 Age (years) 0.00 150 Figure 4. The available tree-level data from database of permanent research plots; tree distribution across age for individual species is shown. For comparative purposes, a sub-set of NFI from the Karlovarsky region was also used to complement the analysis of species-specific age-dependent CBEFs. This NFI sub-dataset was made available the purpose of testing from the FMI (see www.uhul.cz for more information on NFI design). Here, NFI data were screened so to select only those plots where the major species represented at least 70% of the basal area. These tree-level data were used to apply tree level biomass and volume equations as in the case of the PRP data and thereafter summed on plot level to form BEF and seek its relation to age according to [2]. The dataset screened as described above contained 22 pine plots and 366 spruce plots. The second option to address the estimation of biomass from available data on merchantable volume is to generate the corresponding tree distributions for the stand-based aggregates of volume per hectare on the level of individual species and age class (Figure 5). This was performed on the basis of the Czech growth and yields tables (ČERNY et al. 1996) and its software derivative, growth and yield model SILVISIM (e.g., ČERNY 2005). Such disaggregated data permit a direct application of tree-level biomass functions as above for individual species. The input data required for generating the tree distribution include the following stand attributes: tree species, stand age, mean height, basal area and number of trees (n) per hectare. N was obtained from the actually reported stand volume (V) per hectare for given species, age and reporting year by dividing V it with the mean tree merchantable volume. The generated tree frequency distributions contain tree-level information, i. e., diameter, height and age. Such data represent input information to the species-specific biomass functions as noted above, with exception of oak, for which we applied the IPCC default as in the case of CBEF-approach above for this species. Freguency (n/ha and DBH class) Stand age 100.0 10.0 1.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Tree diameter (cm) 70 80 25 35 45 55 65 75 85 95 105 115 125 135 145 155 165 Figure 5. Frequency distribution of trees in hypothetical stands of different age – an example of Beech and the reporting year 2003. Every distribution contains a finite number of trees (n) of certain diameter: their sum matches the corresponding stand-level aggregated volume per hectare as reported from FMP for given year, species and age class. For visual clarity, the y-axis is expressed on log-10 scale. To account for the belowground biomass component, a root/shoot ratio of 0.20 was applied, a conservative value with respect to the references summarized in GPG (IPCC 2003). Finally, total tree biomass was converted to carbon using the commonly used standard oven-dry biomass carbon content of 50%. 2.4. Estimating carbon stock changes GPG (IPCC 2003) suggest two alternative methods for estimating the carbon stock change (∆C). The so-called default is based on separate calculation of increment and removals as ∆C = ∑ ijk ⎡⎣ Aijk *(CI − CL )ijk ⎤⎦ [3] where A is the area concerned, CI and CL represents increment and loss of carbon stock, respectively, and the indexes i, j, k note the likely applied categorization involved in assessment of ∆C. This approach has also been applied in the Czech NIRs until now (e.g., FOTT et al. 2005). The proposed revision suggests utilizing the second method, based on stock change as ( ) ∆C = ∑ ijk Ct2 − Ct1 / ( t2 − t1 )ijk [4] where C is carbon stock at time t1 and/or t2, and the indexes i, j, k expresses the likely categorization of the carbon pools concerned. Using the database of FMP, we assume t1 and t2 to be the consecutive years with corresponding status of FMP database. The carbon stock change in living biomass was estimated for the individual years of the period 1990 to 2003 on 5-year moving average smoothed data that were calculated to suppress the inter-annual variations in the FMP data. 3. Results 3.1. Biomass conversion-expansion factors 1.00 Beech Pine Spruce 3 CBEF (Mg/m ) 0.85 0.70 0.55 0.40 0 50 100 Age (years) 150 Figure 6. Biomass conversion-expansion factors (CBEFs) for beech, pine and spruce and the approximated relation to age according to the exponential decay function as used, e.g., in LEHTONEN (2004); each point represent one plot and the estimated BEF following the [1]. The biomass conversion-expansion factors (CBEF) estimated on the level of PRP plots were generally highest for beech, lower for spruce and lowest for pine ( Figure 6). For all tree species, the dependence to age was weak, but significant: the estimated regression parameters p1, p2 of Eq. 2 and coefficient of determination (r2) were 0.588, 0.246 and 0.29 for beech, 0.479, 0.117 and 0.49 for pine and 0.497, 0.2 and 0.28 for spruce, respectively. 3.2. Carbon stock and carbon stock changes The assessed quantities of total carbon stock held in tree biomass are shown in Figure 7. They steadily increased from about 203 Mt C (745 Mt CO2) in 1990 to 236 Mt C (865 Mt CO2) in 2003. The difference in the two estimation approaches ranged from 0.58 to 0.98 % (mean 0.82 %) for the individual years, with lower values for the approach using CBEFs. Obviously, different tree species contributed differently to these differences, as it is demonstrated in Figure 7 (left). 150 200 Spruce Beech 100 CAB (Mt) CAB (Mg/ha) 190 Pine 50 180 170 160 0 0 BEF Distribution 50 100 Age 150 200 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 Year Figure 7. Differences between the two approaches of aboveground biomass carbon stock (CAB) assessment, i.e., using either i) BEF or ii) tree distributions and direct application of biomass functions. It is demonstrated at the level of individual tree species (left) and the reporting year 2003, and on the level of total aboveground biomass for individual years (right) for the period of 1990 to 2003. The stock change estimated on 5-year moving average values of total carbon stock was positive for the whole period of 1990 to 2003 and its individual years, meaning that the forest biomass acted as sink during this period (Figure 8; note that a negative sign is applied to these values to indicate sink). The average annual biomass sink was -8.62 and -8.37 Mt CO2/year for the estimation via CBEF and by tree distributions and biomass functions, respectively. The mean difference between the two estimates was -0.25 Mt CO2/year, which was statistically insignificant (paired t-test: t = -1.793, p = 0.096). Carbon stock change (Mt CO2) 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 BEF Distribution 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 Year Figure 8. The estimated carbon stock change (sink indicated by negative values) in biomass during 1990 to 2003 by the two different calculation procedures (BEF-aided vs. tree distributions). The solid lines indicate the average sink values, namely -8.62 and -8.37 Mt CO2 for CBEF-aided and tree distributions approach, respectively The dashed control line shows size of the cap (0.32 Mt C or 1.173 Mt CO2) assigned to the Czech Republic for activity of forest management (Kyoto Protocol Art. 3.4) if elected for the first commitment period (2008–2012). 4. Discussion 4.1. Biomass conversion-expansion factors The accuracy of carbon stock change assessment depends on accuracy of input data and on factors used in recalculation procedure. While the accuracy of input data cannot be readily affected, the application of suitable recalculation procedure may improve the overall assessment. Therefore, GPG (IPCC 2003) recommends a proper application and transparent reporting of applied biomass expansion factors (BEFs). The suggested default BEF is 1.3 for conifers and 1.4 for broadleaved trees in temperate region. However, GPG suggests the application of region or country-specific factors once they concern a key category identified in the national inventory compilation. While the most common perception of BEFs is a factor to just expand volume or biomass, GPG notices that conversion-expansion factors (here denoted as CBEFs) may also be applied, as e.g., in this study and other recently published studies on carbon inventory and related calculation (WIRTH et al. 2004b, LEHTONEN et al. 2004). CBEFs facilitate a joint expansion and conversion, in our case from the merchantable growing stock volume under bark to the total above ground biomass. An important step is the estimation of the relation of CBEF to age, which is needed for application to volume data aggregated by age classes. Since the available data from PRP plots did not contain young forest stand, the resulting fit of the function according to Eq. 2 underestimates total biomass for individual species for young age classes. This underestimation may not be significant considering the relatively small fraction of biomass (non-merchantable) represented by these age classes, nonetheless the improvement may be appropriate and easy to achieve with the data of NFI as it is indicated in Figure 9 for pine and spruce stands (based on NFI sub-set). Obviously, a full dataset of NFI would provide a spatially unbiased estimate of CBEF and the CBEF relation to for each major species, together with a rigorously estimated uncertainty. Since the full set of the NFI data were not available for this study, this could not be explored here. 1.2 NFI PRP Data source NFI PRP 1.0 3 3 CBEF (Mg/m ) 1.0 CBEF (Mg/m ) 1.2 Data source 0.8 0.6 0.4 0 0.8 0.6 35 70 105 Age (years) 140 175 0.4 0 35 70 105 Age (years) 140 175 Figure 9. The relation of CBEF to age for pine (left) and spruce (right) using the PRP data and a sub-set of NFI plots. The combined data permit a fully flexible fit across the full age span (solid line) as compared to the fit with one parameter held constant (dashed line). 4.2. Carbon stock and carbon stock changes The two alternative approaches of the stock change method resulted in insignificant quantities of the assessed carbon stock (less than 1%). The differences increased to about 3% once the comparison refers to the assessed stock change. This actually demonstrates the weakness of the stock change method, namely that the assessed stock change in individual years is very sensitive to small changes in the stocks. GPG (IPCC 2003) suggests that the stock change method might be very sensitive in those cases, when large stocks are used to detect small changes. Actually, the approach utilizing CBEFs proved to be more robust and the year-to year differences were not as large as those estimated by the approach of biomass functions applied on fictive tree distributions in stands of particular age. The analysis of the factors contributing to this observation cannot be provided in this material, but it apparently is the effect of shifting areas and age structure of individual species in 1997 and 1998. It maybe concluded that the advantage of the approach with tree-level biomass functions applied on generated tree distributions is counterbalanced by additional uncertainties associated with disaggregating the age-class aggregated data by SILVISIM model. This uncertainty is difficult to assess, but could potentially be evaluated on the observed stand and tree level data. The approach utilizing CBEFs directly on the aggregated data by age-classes is more transparent and simpler to evaluate in terms of uncertainties, which will be the subject of our next study. With respect to the data reported in the Czech National Inventory Report so far (FOTT et al. 2005), the assessed carbon sink by the stock change is about twice as large. However, it must be noted that a new revision of the default method is currently also ongoing. The revision will, among others, utilize a more suited set of allometric equations and expansion factors, revise the other expansion factors involved and apply the actual representation of the four major tree species by age classes. The preliminary assessment of emissions associated with the category “Changes in Forest and Other Woody Biomass Stocks” by the revised default method indicates a sink of -6.7 Mt CO2 annually for the period of 1990–2003. This would be about 20 and 22% less than the assessment by the two stock change method approaches. Worth noting is the effect of root/shoot factor (R), which within the stock-change method simply adds the corresponding quantity of CO2 sink. Once discounted in the stock change method calculations, the assessment of carbon sink in biomass would be -7.18 and -6.98 Mt CO2 per year. R acts differently within the default method, because the calculation procedures for increment and the harvested volumes differ. The objectivity of the stock-change method depends on the assumption that the data collected in subsequent years are assessed using the same procedures. Obviously, FMP data do not represent the same type of objective information as the statistical inventory and in-situ tree level measurements of NFI. However, since the repeated NFI is not available yet, FMP will remain the basis for the carbon stock change assessment in the country. Comparing the two major methods to estimate carbon stock change, the stock-change method might represent a more objective and less uncertain approach as compared to the default method, which requires more information to be known. The by far most important information for the default method is increment, the estimation of which currently depends on growth and yield tables and hence remains uncertain. Secondly, the necessary expansion factors related to increment are not available, and the IPCC (2003) default values must be used in connection with the default method. Still, the default method may represent a more attractive solution as compared to the stock change method, because it discerns emissions by removals (increment) and sources (harvest and other loss), whereas the stock change method gives only the net change of emissions associated with forest biomass. 5. Conclusions This paper explored two approaches of the stock change method to assess the stock change associated with tree biomass and forests. Although the stock change method based on FMP data shown here may be a defendable approach, it lacks representative biomass conversion and expansion factors and provides data of unknown accuracy, although presumably unchanged during the reported period. A more significant improvement of the forest carbon stock change assessment in the Czech Republic may be expected once the second NFI cycle will be performed in the country. Until then, the assessment of carbon stock change will rely on FMP data. NFI data may and should be utilized to construct suitable allometric relationships and biomass conversion and expansion factors. This is actually needed for both the default and the stock change method. 6. Acknowledgements Many thanks belong to the organizers of the international conference “Climate Change – Forest Ecosystem & Landscape, where this study was presented. The authors also gratefully acknowledge the support of the Czech Science Foundation (GAČR), Grant number 526/03/1021 (CzechRECAF), and of the Czech Ministry of Environment (VaV/640/18/03 – CzechCARBO). References 1. ČERNÝ, M., 2005: Use of the growth models of main tree species of the Czech Republic in combination with the data of the Czech National Forest Inventory. 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