GEOPOLITICS, CRISES, AND
CORPORATE STRATEGY
Paul Bracken
March 20, 2015
GNAM Week
March 20, 2015
KEY STRATEGY MEASURES
Business
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•
•
•
•
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Market Share
Buyer Power
Growth
Efficiency & pricing
Deterrent to entry
Outsourcing
Corporate
• What businesses should I
be in?
• Where?
• Capital Market Logics
• Political risk
• Cross cutting technology
(e.g. cyber security)
• Learning and agility
• Environmental scanning
system
7
CORPORATE STRATEGY ISSUES
AREA
CASE
ISSUES
Political Risk
Walmart de Mexico; Africa
Oil & Gas
Host & home government
risk, transparency
Technology
Apple; Samsung; Lenovo,
First mover to disrupt; or
second mover; or fast
second mover
Corruption
Siemens
balance compliance with
competitive drive
Agility
IBM; Walmart
Local vs. global balance,
design, & “taste”
CORPORATE STRATEGY ISSUES
ISSUE
CASE
Political Risk
Walmart de Mexico; Africa
Oil & Gas
Own government risk,
transparency
Technology
Apple; Samsung; Lenovo,
First mover to disrupt; or
second mover; or fast
second mover
Corruption
Siemens
balance compliance with
competitive drive
Agility
IBM; Walmart
Local vs. global balance,
design, & “taste”
Divide the study into two parts:
strategic and tactical
• “Strategic” methodology is the overall
methodological approach: scenarios,
environmental scans, multiframing, etc.
• “Tactical” methodology = particular
components of the study: macroeconomics,
game theory, Porter 5 forces
POLITICAL AND STRATEGIC
ENVIRONMENTS
POLITICAL
• International Politics (USRussia, US-China, ChinaJapan, etc.)
• Domestic Politics (US,
others)
STRATEGIC
• Actors: Countries, Groups,
IOs
• Changes in tax, regulation,
acceptability of products,
THE ALTERNATIVE FUTURES APPROACH
Two Different Ways to Forecast
I.
When will China pass US in GDP?
With how much confidence?
• econometrics, macroeconomics
II. What does it mean?
• scenarios to work out possible
implications