Fatality Risk Overview
What is Fatality Risk?
Fatality risk is a measure of a person’s (passenger or crew) chance of
perishing in an accident on a randomly chosen flight.
Fatality Risk Can be Shown as Pareto or as a Defined Rate
A fatality risk accident pareto is used to show the historic distribution of
accident types that contributed to the overall fatality risk.
Historical Part 121 Fatality Risk (1987-2000)
Defined Rate
c
ce
len
om
p
Ev
a
Tu
rb
u
Sy
s-C
Inc
-U
CE
F
En
g
ir
ew
Cr
Mi
da
GN
D
ion
llis
Co
LO
C
ion
los
Ru
nw
ay
IT
CF
Fir
e/E
xp
Flt
LO
C
To
ta
l
Fatality Risk
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Calculating Historical Fatality Risk
Non Fatal
0%
100% fatal
100% fatal
Non Fatal
0%
Accidents
Case 1
All Flights
Accidents
Four Accidents - Blue is
portion onboard that perish
Expectation of perishing on a randomly chosen flight= 2/total number of flights
Five Accidents - Blue is
portion onboard that perish
Accidents
All Flights
Case 2
Expectation of perishing on a randomly chosen flight= 2/total number of flights
Compare Case 1 & Case 2
Chance of perishing on a randomly chosen flight is the same for Case 1 & Case 2
= 2/total number of flights
Fatality Risk Rate =  (portions of onboard people that perish in accidents /  All Fights
1987-2000 Part 121 Hull Loss
And/or Fatal Accidents (77
Accidents)
(~118 E6 Departures 1987-2000)
Sys-Comp, 2
Midair, 2
Crew Inc, 1
Fire/Explosi...
Evac, 1
CFIT, 11
Runway Coll...
LOC GND, 10
Turbulence, 3
Eng-UCEF, 4
LOC Flt, 33
Fatality risk: The number of full airplane
fatality equivalents occurring in accident
period (43.9 full airplane equivalents)
Fatal accident rate: The number of fatal
accidents occurring in a given period
(62 accidents had on board fatalities)
Sys-Comp, 0.05
Crew Inc, 0.50
Sys-Comp, 2
Evac, 0.01
Midair, 1.22
Crew Inc, 1
Fire/Explosion, 3.00
Runway Collisi...
CFIT, 8.54
Fire/Explosi...
Evac, 1
Midair, 2
CFIT, 9
Turbulence, 0.03
LOC GN
Runway Coll...
Eng-UCEF, 0.41
LOC GND, 1.23
Turbulence, 3
Eng-UCEF, 2
LOC Flt, 31
LOC Flt, 26.41
Basis for Fatality Risk Reduction
(Current CAST Metric)
Basis for Fatality Accident
Rate Reduction
Part 121 Accident Trend Comparision
(CAST Accident set)
10.00
5 yr moving average - All Part 121 hull loss and
onboard fatal accidents
9.00
7.00
5 yr moving average - Q statistic for all Part 121
onboard fatal accidents
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
Rate per 10 million departures
8.00
5 yr moving average - All Part 121 onboard fatal
accidents
Historical Part 121 Fatality Risk (1987-2000)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Ru
Ev
a
c
e
nc
ule
Tu
rb
om
p
Sy
s-C
-U
CE
F
En
g
Cr
ew
Inc
ir
Mi
da
GN
D
LO
C
nw
ay
Co
llis
ion
ion
los
Fir
e/E
xp
IT
CF
Flt
LO
C
To
ta
l
Fatality Risk
Excluding all
security events
Questions?