The Economic Impacts of Climate Change in the U.S.
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The Center for Integrative Environmental Research (CIER) finds
that economic costs will be far-reaching nationwide if no action is
taken.
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The impact of climate change events will affect both the natural
environment and existing infrastructure
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Effects will occur throughout the country
Be unevenly distributed across regions of the economy/society
Negative climate impacts will outweigh benefits
Climate impacts will place strain on public sector budgets
Secondary effects: higher prices, reduced income, job losses
Source: Matthias Ruth, Dana Coelho, and Daria Karetnikov. A Review and Assessment by the Center for Integrative
Environmental Research (CIER) at the University of Maryland, October 2007. Center for Integrative Environmental
Research, University of Maryland.
Impacts in the U.S.
• Effects experienced across all regions, but the
severity will be “unevenly distributed across regions
and within the economy and society.1”
• For sectors of the economy that provide essential
goods and services, the negative effects will be
significantly greater than the positive.
• The impact of climate change will severely strain
government budgets – local, state and federal.
1Matthias Ruth, Dana Coelho,
and Daria Karetnikov. A Review and Assessment by the Center for Integrative
Environmental Research (CIER) at the University of Maryland, October 2007. Center for Integrative Environmental
Research, University of Maryland
2 Ibid.
• Secondary effects:
Higher prices
Reduced income
Job losses2
Why will these secondary effects occur according to the CIER
study?
1Matthias Ruth, Dana Coelho,
and Daria Karetnikov. A Review and Assessment by the Center for Integrative
Environmental Research (CIER) at the University of Maryland, October 2007. Center for Integrative Environmental
Research, University of Maryland
What economic sectors & Industries are expected to be
most directly affected?
1. Agriculture – Why?
• In some parts of the nation, growing conditions will
improve as temperatures continue to rise - colder
regions become warmer
• Other geographic areas are projected to see
worsening conditions:
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scaricity ofwater resources
rainfall becomes more frequent (or infrequent)
land becomes unsuitable for farming
increase in the spread of pests and plant diseases
(CIER)
Natural Resources Defense Council. Climate Change Threatens Health,
http://www.nrdc.org/health/climate/drought.asp
Changes in drought and rainfall patterns also coincide with warming trends over the
last century
https://youtu.be/s3RWTTtPg8E
Source: https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-noaa-to-announce-2016-global-temperatures-climate-conditions
https://youtu.be/x1SgmFa0r04 A visual of carbon emissions globally over a one-year period.
Changes in drought and rainfall patterns also coincide
with warming trends over the last century
https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/thumbnails/image/2016gistempupdateblack.gif
Union of Concerned Scientists, 2008, “Rapidly Rising Seas: What the Science Tells Us,”
http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/legacy/assets/documents/global_warming/Causes-of-Sea-LevelRise.pdf
• “From 1993 to 2008, the global rate has risen to 0.11 to
0.13 inch per year,”(Union of Concerned Scientists).
• At this rate – an increase of an average .12 inches per
year – the 20 inch threshold wouldn’t be reached in
2100; but with accelerated rates of sea level rise, it
could.
• Many of the CIER study’s cost estimates of climate
change related damage – made ten years ago – have
turned out to be quite accurate.
• Ex: the study predicted the cost of and type of
protections that would be needed to protect vulnerable
coastal areas.
Union of Concerned Scientists, 2008, “Rapidly Rising Seas: What the Science Tells Us,”
http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/legacy/assets/documents/global_warming/Causes-of-Sea-Level-Rise.pdf
Western U.S.: A recent New York Times report1 notes that the
glaciers of Glacier National Park in Montana are rapidly
disappearing, threatening the ecosystem of the Western U.S. The
report notes:
“A century ago, this sweep of mountains on the Canadian
border boasted some 150 ice sheets, many of them scores of
feet thick, plastered across summits and tucked into rocky
fissures high above parabolic valleys. Today, perhaps 25
survive. In 30 years, there may be none”.
• Following the winter thaw, melting ice provides a vital
source of water for residents and farmers downstream.
• But as a result of a warming climate, the glaciers are
disappearing.
1Source: MICHAEL WINES
November 22, 2014.
“Climate Change Threatens to Strip the Identity of Glacier National Park.” New York Times,
• …the peak flow of water from the melting glaciers is
starting much earlier in Spring and ending sooner –
before crops are ready to be harvested: Leading to:
• water shortages when demand is at its peak
• imbalance in the demand and supply for water.
Other sectors of the economy affected?
2. Recreation – ski resorts: “Mountain snow packs are
shrinking. In recent decades, rising winter temperatures
have increasingly changed snows to rain.” Tourism $$ shrink
3. Population: Many densely populated cities & towns south
of glaciers; including a very large number of businesses.
4. Wildlife/ecosystems: as habitats disappear, species die
out or are threatened.
Northeastern U.S.
2. Infrastructure/buildings/transportation systems
especially in coastal areas are highly vulnerable.
• Value of residential and commercial property in
northeast was estimated by CIER to be $4 trillion in
2004; a decade later, this value is clearly more.
• CIER study in 2004 predicted damages of a category 4
hurricane hitting a major metropolitan area as costing
between $50 and $60 billion in insurance losses.
• The estimated losses to property and businesses from
Hurricane Sandy in 2012 reached an estimated $65
billion.
• The estimated losses to property, businesses and
infrastructure from Hurricane Sandy in 2012:
• Total $65 billion1
• New Jersey: $38.6 billion2
• New York: $32 billion- statewide; $19 billion in New
York City3
• MTA: $4.75 billion in infrastructure losses; $246 million
in lost revenue2.
Predicted losses from sea level rise: The study predicted
(in 2004) a sea level rise in the northeast-mid Atlantic
region of 20 inches by year 2100.
1 USA Today, “Hurricane Sandy, drought cost U.S. $100 billion.” Jan. 25, 2013
2 CNN,
“Hurricane Sandy Fast Facts,” Nov. 5, 2014
3 New York Times, “Hurricane Sandy’s Rising Costs”, November 27, 2012
2. Income loss
• Losses to tourism industries from snow melt; flood;
drought.
• This translates to $millions in lost income to businesses
and workers as jobs once in demand dwindle with weak
business conditions.
• Losses to agricultural industries from lower output.
• Losses to fisheries from depleted species.
• Rising government debt resulting from need to invest
in rebuilding and repairing damaged infrastructure.
• Vulnerability of a significant percentage of nation’s
population living in coastal areas to lost jobs and
business resulting from a severe weather event or
disaster
One estimate of how to measure the Economic Costs of
climate change has been developed by public policy researcher
Quantifying the Economic Cost of Climate Change
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNYZJD_llno
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dG2BfpTkxs
(first 10 minutes)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dG2BfpTkxs
Robin Hahnel on the Political Economy of Climate Change
1. Impact of warming on global economic output
http://news.stanford.edu/news/2015/october/videos/1593.html
2. PBS video on evidence globally: PBS Global Warming The Signs and the
Science
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xVQnPytgwQ0