Recreation Economic Studies of Lake
Mead & the Grand Canyon of the Colorado
John Duffield
Chris Neher
David Patterson
University of Montana
Lake Mead Symposium
March 5-6, 2012
Las Vegas, NV
Outline
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Introduction
NPS Objectives
Phase II Findings and Data Gaps
2012-2013 Survey
Modeling Visitation and Water Levels
Overall Project Objectives
 Develop Comprehensive values for NPS resources in the
Colorado River Watershed (CRW)
 Estimate NPS values as a function of water allocations.
 Integrated economic-hydrologic tools for NPS to fully
participate in CRW water policy.
Linkages between CRW Recreation
Resources and the Economy
Ecosystem
Services
Management
- Conservation
- Use & enjoyment
Visitor
Use
Nonuse
Values
Economic
Impact
BenefitCost
Organization of Study
Phase I. White paper.
Phase II. Review & synthesis existing studies and data
sets, identify data gaps.
Phase III. Original research in two areas: direct useregional economics, nonuse values.
Phase IV. Integrate economics & hydrology,
application to water allocation policies, user
friendly model, publications.
Types of NPS Resource Values
 Market and nonmarket values
 Direct use values
- consumptive (hunting, fishing…)
- nonconsumptive (boating, scenic..)
 Nonuse values: existence & bequest
 Two accounting frameworks: social benefit-cost,
regional economics
Colorado River Basin Park Unit Waterbased Visitation
Lake Mead
NRA
74%
Canyonlands
NP
0%
Grand Canyon
NP
0%
Glen Canyon
NRA
18%
Dinosaur NM
0%
Curecanti NRA
8%
Summary of Existing Literature on Visitor
Expenditures and Regional Economic
Impacts
Key Previous Research on Water-related CRW
NPS Resources
 Glen Canyon Environmental Studies, began 1982
 Bishop et al. 1987 – direct use in Grand Canyon river
corridor
 Operation of Glen Canyon Dam EIS, began 1989
 Welsh et al. 1995 – nonuse values in river corridor
 EIS 1995, Record of Decision 1996
Estimates of Colorado River Unit Direct Recreational Values
Study
Description
Bishop et al.
(1987)
Study of values of
Grand Canyon - float boaters
(CVM)
Hammer
(2001)
NEV Estimate
NEV Estimate
(2005 $ per visit)
$236-$1,653 per trip
depending on river flow
level (1985$)
$430 - $3,000
Study of Grand Canyon –
Floaters (TCM)
$134 per trip (private) $314
per trip (commercial)
$157 (private)
$368 (comm.)
Martin (1982)
Study of Lake Mead - Fishing
Values (TCM)
$44.63 to $61.44 per angler
day (1978-9$)
$643 - $887
Douglas and
Johnson
(2004)
Travel Cost study of
Lake Powell – Recreationists
(TCM)
$70.84 - $159.35 per
visit consumer
surplus (1997 $)
$86 - $194
Duffield &
Neher (1999)a
Visitor survey of Glen Canyon
NRA and Grand Canyon NP
Visitors. (CVM)
Glen Canyon NRA - $384
per party trip
Grand Canyon NP - $319
per party trip (1988$)
Glen Canyon $109
Grand Canyon
$142
Douglas and
Harpman
(2004)
Survey of Glen Canyon improved trip quality scenarios
(angler harvest, water quality)
$8.63 to $38.92 per visitb
(1997 $)
$11 - $47
Bishop (1997) Relationship Between NEV and Flow Levels
on Grand Canyon Float
Visitor Survey-Based Colorado R. Unit
Expenditure Data
Park Unit
Studies
Glen
Canyon
NRA
Douglas and Harpman (1994)
$61 - $187 per person (1985)
Douglas and Johnson (2004)
$119.77 per person (1997)
$146
Duffield and Neher (1998)
$202 per party day (1998)
$187
Borden et al. (2003)
$59.02 per person day (2003)
$174
Martin et al. 1982
$43.00 per angler
$122
MGM2, Visitor Services Project
$1,388 per visit (2003)
$1,471
Arizona Hospitality Study
$1,131 per party (2005)
$333
Harpman (1995)
$215-$510 per person (1995)
Douglas and Harpman (1994)
$517 - $1427 per person (1985)
Duffield and Neher (1998)
$198 per party day (1998)
Hjerpe & Kim (2007)
$680-$1,001 per person (2001)
Lake Mead
NRA
Grand
Canyon NP
Expenditure Estimates
(study year $)
Expenditure
Estimates (2005
$ per visit)
$111 - $340
$275 - $652
$941 - $2,597
$197
$750-$1.104
Available Data for Net Economic Value Analysis:
Percent of Water-based Recreation
Adequate
Information
18%
Partial
Information
0%
Insufficient
Information
82%
Is Sufficient Information Available Now to
Conduct Economic Analysis?
Estimate
Marginal
Impacts of
Water level on
Regional
Economics?
Produce Direct
Use Total Value
Estimates for
Water-based
Visitation?
Estimate
Marginal
Impacts of
Water level on
NEV?
Estimated Passive
Use Values?
YES
YES
YES
PARTIAL
NO
DATED
DATED
DATED
DATED
NO
Lake Mead NRA
Lake Mead
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
Lake Mojave
YES
YES
NO
NO
NO
Curecanti NRA
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
DATED
DATED
DATED /
UNCERTAIN
PARTIAL/
DATED
DATED
Dinosaur NM
Yampa & Green River
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
Canyonlands NP
Cataract Canyon
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
Park Unit
Glen Canyon NRA
Lake Powell
Colo. River (Glen-Lee’s)
Grand Canyon NP
Grand Canyon Float
Produce
Regional
Economic
Impacts for
Water-based
Visitation?
Planned Colorado River Survey
Population to be Surveyed
Survey Question
Valuation Methods
Proposed Sample
Size (contacts)
Grand Canyon Whitewater
Boaters
CV, Conjoint
1,800
Anglers (Lee’s to GC Dam)
CV, Conjoint
400
Anglers (Badger to Lee’s)
CV, Conjoint
70
Lake Mead
CV, Conjoint. RUM
1,000
Lake Powell
CV, Conjoint, RUM
1,000
Passive Household Survey
CV, Conjoint
3,750
Additional Analysis Using Existing Data
Lake Mead Elevation: Interim Surplus Criteria Alternatives.
(Source, Wheeler et al. 2002)
Lake Powell Plot of Seasonal Visitation by
Average Season Water Volume
Total Seasonal Recreational Visitation
1,400,000
1,200,000
Summer Months
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
Fall and Spring Months
400,000
200,000
Winter Months
0
Average Seasonal Lake Powell Water Volume
Lake Powell Visitation-Water
Volume Model: 1996-2006
 Dependent variable: Monthly visitation
 Explanatory variables: Month indicator variables,
average lake volume, interaction terms for summer
and shoulder season months and volume
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VOLUME
SHOULDER * VOLUME
SUMMER * VOLUME
R-Square
N=132
0.00104
0.00364
0.00859
0.987
t=2.50
t=5.90
t=13.03
Plot of Wahweap Marina Annual Receipts and Average Lake
Powell Levels.
55000000
23000000
21000000
19000000
17000000
45000000
15000000
13000000
40000000
Wahweap
Lake Powell
11000000
9000000
35000000
7000000
30000000
5000000
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Annual Data 1995-2005
8
9
10
11
Average Lake Powell Volume
Wahweap Marina Receipts
50000000
Lake Mead Visitation-Volume Model:
Monthly Data, 1996-2011
Multiple R
0.815
R Square
0.664
Adjusted R Square
0.659
Observations
192
Coefficients Standard Error
t Stat
P-value
Intercept
266,814
22,293
11.97
0.00000
Volume
0.00918
0.00116
7.90
0.00000
Summer
245,764
14,572
16.87
0.00000
Shoulder
168,055
13,376
12.56
0.00000
Plot of Lake Mead Annual Visitation
(Observed v. Predicted) and Lake Volume