The Road to the 2015 Agreement challenges and opportunities
April 2013
N.N.
DG Climate Action
European Commission
Climate
Action
Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
What is the state of play? The pre-2020
international climate policy framework after the
climate summits in Copenhagen, Cancun,
Durban and Doha.
What next? Towards the 2015 Agreement
defining international climate action beyond
2020
How to get ready for the next negotiation
round? Long term challenges and opportunities
for the European Union
Conclusions
Climate
Action
What is the state of play?
The pre-2020 international climate policy
framework after the climate summits in
Copenhagen, Cancun, Durban and Doha.
Climate
Action
State of play (1):
"Doha Climate Gateway"
1. Agreement on detailed
work plan for the
negotiation round
leading to the 2015
agreement
2. Adoption of a 2013-2020
CP2 for Kyoto Protocol
3. Closure of the old
negotiation tracks
4. Finance package
5. Loss and Damage
Climate
Action
State of play (2):
Mitigation architecture until 2020
Kyoto Protocol
Participation
(mitigation)
Emission
Mitigation
commitment
Copenhagen-Cancun
AU, EU, NO, CH, IS,
LI, MC, HR, [KZ, UA,
BY]
US, RU, JP,
CA, NZ
45 (eg CN,
BR,ZA, IN,
KR, MX)
107
Up to 15 %
~ 25 %
~35 %
~25 %
Emission budget
(QELRO)
Economywide target
Actions
(NAMA)
-
Inventory
IPCC, annual inventories and biennial
reports (Jan 2012)
IPCC, biennial (Dec 2014)
Reporting
AI National Communications
(every 4 years, Jan 2014)
NAI National
Communications (every 4
years, Dec 2014)
Verification
Expert review
IAR (2014)
ICA (2015)
-
Accounting
Kyoto rules
-
-
-
-
-
-
Compliance
Fully elaborated Climate
Action
State of play (3):
A fragmented world until 2020
Climate
Action
State of play (4):
Means until 2020
Kyoto Protocol
Copenhagen-Cancun
LULUCF
Improved
accounting
-
Carbon
markets
International
emissions trading,
CDM, NMM
New
Market
Mechanism
REDD+
-
-
Adaptation
Adaptation Committee
Technology
Technology Executive Committee,
Center of Network of Climate
Technology
Finance
Adaptation Fund,
Share of Proceeds
Green Climate Fund, Standing
Committee
Response
measures
Specific reporting
requirements
Forum
Climate
Action
State of play (5):
A lot going on outside UNFCCC
• Other multi-lateral agreements: ICAO, Montreal Protocol,
Gothenburg Protocol, Mercury Agreement
• Purely domestic low carbon strategies: e.g. TH, MY, VN
• Domestic emission trading systems: EU, NO, CH, NZ, AU, US
States, KR, CN, Quebec, Tokyo
• Bilateral offset systems: JP
• New market based systems: Partnership for Market Readiness
• Plurilateral Initiatives: Climate and Clean Air Coalition, Global
Bioenergy Partnership, Gas Flaring Initiative, Fossil fuel subsidies
(G20)
• Finance: Climate Investment Funds, Forest Carbon Partnership
Forum, REDD+
Climate
Action
State of play (6):
The ambition gap
Climate
Action
State of play (7):
Climate
Action
State of play (8):
The ambition
gap can be
closed
Climate
Action
What next?
Towards the 2015 Agreement defining
international climate action beyond 2020
Climate
Action
Implementation of the Kyoto 2nd commitment period:
1st commitment
period
- Limited participation: EU, NO, CH, FL, AU, [UKR, BY, KZ?]
- Strengthened KP rules agreed in Durban/Doha
COPENHAGEN
CANCUN
Kyoto
Implementation of the Cancun Agreements:
- Non-Kyoto Parties: US, JP, CA, RU, NZ, BR, ZA, IN, CN and others
Robust monitoring, reporting and verification
- Enhance understanding of pledges
1 January 2020:
Entry into force
of commitments
for all countries
under new
Protocol
2013-2015 review
Durban Platform
negotiations
ADOPTION
DURBAN
IPCC
AR5
- New Protocol
applicable to all
- Additional initiatives to close
the pre-2020 ambition gap
US
Presidential
elections
US
EP electionsmid-term
elections
Transposition
new legal framework
into domestic law
US
Presidential
elections
US
mid-term
EP elections
elections
US
Presidential
elections
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
EU
HU, PL
DK. CY
IE, LT
EL, IT
LT, LU
NL, SK
MT, UK
EE, BG
AT, RO
FI, ?
?
?
G8
FR
US
UK
RU
DE
JP
IT
CAN
FR
US
UK
RU
G20
FR
MEX
RU
AUS
TR
?
?
?
?
?
?
Climate
?
Action
What next (2):
Raising Pre-2020 Mitigation
• Only one new pledge (Dominican Republic) & unclear
announcement of Gulf Cooperation Council
• Work programme in 2013:
• Explore barriers & opportunities to pledge including technical
paper by the UNFCCC Secretariat – including on International
Cooperative Initiatives
• Further clarification of Copenhagen/Cancun pledges for developed
and developing countries, including need for support and support
available
• Accounting for developed countries
• Kyoto Parties: Automatic adjustment procedure, Review of
commitments in 2014
Climate
Action
What next (3):
Towards 2015 Agreement
(“Durban Platform”)
• Additional meetings in April and/or September
2013 in Bonn. COP19 in Warsaw.
• Summit of World Leaders in 2014 (Ban Ki-moon
initiative)
• Draft negotiation text to be prepared by end
2014, COP20 (Latin America)
• Final legal text available in May 2015
• Agreement at the end of 2015, COP21, France
Climate
Action
What next (4):
Key issues – ambition in 2030
Source: UNEP (2012)
Climate
Action
What next (5):
Key issues - commitments
Climate
Action
What next (6):
Key issues – effective, efficient & fair
• Very different development
needs and expectations
• Enabling a "spectrum of
commitments" in the 2015
Agreement
• Requiring a "spectrum of
cooperation“
• Support needs to be country
tailored in political dialogue
and co-operation
Climate
Action
What next (7):
Key issues – future role of UNFCCC
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Emission inventories
Monitoring
Reporting
Verification
International carbon markets
Adaptation
Technology
Response measures
Compliance
• Facilitation
• Enforcement
Climate
Action
How to get ready for the next negotiation
round?
Long term challenges and opportunities
for the European Union
Climate
Action
Getting ready (1):
EU’s work plan
1. Deliver on international commitments
2. Identify viable long-term trajectories and milestones: Low
Carbon Roadmap 2050 and Energy Roadmap 2050 (were
already issued in 2011/2012)
3. Identify effective, efficient and fair mitigation policies:
2030 Framework (Green Paper at the end of March 2013)
and Stakeholder Consultation (April/May 2013)
4. Elaborate EU international negotiation position:
Consultative Communication (end of March 2013) and
Stakeholder consultation (April/May 2013)
5. Identify adaptation policy until 2020: EU Adaptation
Strategy (April 2013)
Climate
Action
21
Getting ready (2): Deliver the 2008-2012
target under the Kyoto Protocol
Actual and projected emissions of
EU-15, in MtCO2-eq.
 EU-15 currently overachieve 2008-2012
Kyoto target of 8%
emissions reductions
 In 2010, EU-15 GHG
emissions are 11%
below the base-year
level.
 Provisional 2011 data
show -14% reduction
in EU-15 GHG
emissions
Climate
Action
Getting ready (3): Deliver the 2012-2020
target under the Kyoto Protocol
Actual and projected emissions of
EU-27, in MtCO2-eq.
 Between 1990 and 2011,
EU-27 GDP grew by 48%
while emissions
decreased by 18%
 Despite a slight increase
of GHG emissions in
2010 compared to 2009
of 2.4%, there is a
decreasing trend since
2004
23
Climate
Action
Getting ready (4): 2050 Roadmap A cost-efficient pathway
80% domestic
reduction
in 2050 is feasible:
• With currently
available technologies,
• With behavioural
change only induced
through prices
• If all economic sectors
contribute to a varying
degree & pace.
Efficient pathway and
milestones:
•-25% in 2020
•-40% in 2030
•-60% in 2040
100%
80%
100%
Power Sector
80%
Current policy
60%
Residential & Tertiary
60%
Industry
40%
40%
Transport
20%
20%
Non CO2 Agriculture
Non CO2 Other Sectors
0%
1990
2000
2010
Climate
Action
2020
2030
2040
0%
2050
24
Getting ready (5): 2050 Roadmap Investing in innovation and fuel savings
Additional domestic investment: € 270 billion annually
during 2010-2050, equivalent to 1.5% of GDP (Total
investment – 19% of GDP in 2009), of which
• Built environment (buildings and appliances): € 75 billion
• Transport (vehicles and infrastructure): € 150 billion
• Power (electricity generation, grid): € 30 billion
Fuel savings: € 175 to 320 billion on average annually during
2010-2050
Making EU economy more energy secure:
• Halves imports of oil and gas compared to today
• Saving € 400 billion of EU oil and gas import bill in 2050,
equivalent to > 3% of today’s GDP
Air quality and health benefits: € 27 billion in 2030 and €
88 billion in 2050
25
Climate
Action
Getting ready (6): 2050 Roadmap Stimulating growth and creating jobs
• Shifting fuel expenditure
to clean investments
200
180
1990 = 100%
• Innovation in key growth
sectors crucial for future
competitiveness
• Potential net job creation up
to 1.5 million by 2020
• GDP more secure from
energy price shocks
GDP and GHG decoupling
220
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
1990
2000
GDP
Climate
Action
2010
2020
GHG emissions
2030
Getting ready (7):
2030 Framework - Process
• Commission Work Programme 2013 includes a "New
climate & energy framework for the period up to
2030".
• Green Paper envisaged for coming week serving as input
to the joint Energy/Environment Informal Council on 22-24
April 2013.
• Stakeholder consultation in April/May 2013.
• The results of the Stakeholders consultation essential for
the preparation of Impact Assessment (IA).
• IA will underpin the 2030 Policy Framework to be tabled
by the end of the year.
Climate
Action
Getting ready (8):
2030 Framework - Policy issues
• Policy tools to ensure cost efficiency: targets for greenhouse
gas emissions, renewables, energy efficiency
• Distribution of efforts
o Diversity among EU Member States in terms of economic
capacity, energy mix, exploitable renewable energy
resources, efficiency etc.
o EU level instruments and flexibility can exploit opportunities
to reduce overall costs
o Need for fairness and solidarity
• Addressing potential carbon leakage/competitiveness
• Exploiting co-benefits: esp. energy security, air quality
• Smart combination and interaction of policy instruments
Climate
Action
Getting ready (9): 2030 Framework –
Reaping the business opportunities
• The core of the EU eco-industry generates an
annual turnover of over € 300 billion. It directly
employs more than 3 million people.
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/enveco/jobs/pdf/jobs.pdf
• Denmark, Austria, Poland, Slovenia, Germany
and the Netherlands are leading EU Member
States in eco-industry (in terms of the industry’s
turnover relative to GDP).
Climate
Action
Getting ready (10): 2030 Framework –
Realising the trade opportunities
• The EU has large market shares and enjoys a
positive trade balance in trade in environmental
goods and services. The three major markets
(Germany, France and the UK) are all net
exporters of eco-industry goods and services.
Climate
Action
Getting ready (11): 2030 Framework –
Growing investment in R&D
• The share of environmental R&D in total government R&D
has continuously increased. The shares in Germany, France
and the UK were around 1% of government R&D in 1980;
by 2005 they were around 4%; 2% and 3%, respectively.
• Mechanical engineering and ICT are two sectors which have
a clear potential to improve energy and environmental
efficiency in other sectors.
• Also, the automotive industry and household appliances all
provide solutions or products that can be more
environmentally friendly.
Climate
Action
Conclusions
1. Copenhagen, Cancun, Durban, Doha & initiatives outside
the UNFCCC have broadened and solidified the
international climate policy framework, especially
measurement, reporting and verification.
2. In the next years, implementation will be key. But glass is
only 1/3 full – more climate action needed.
3. New negotiation round towards 2015 Agreement has been
launched with key questions to be addressed.
4. All countries need to start domestic preparations – in the
EU.
Climate
Action
Thank you !
Climate
Action
http://world-you-like.europa.eu/en/