Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA
Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
D-PHASE:
Demonstration of Probabilistic
Hydrological and Atmospheric
Simulation of flood Events in
the Alpine region
Marco Arpagaus
5th COPS Workshop, Hohenheim, 26-28.3.2007
Outline
• Quick review of D-PHASE
• Visualisation Platform and Data Archive
• More on atmospheric models
• list of output variables
• model products
• alerts
• Dry-runs
• Timetable
• Organisation
D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region
Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)
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Distributed real-time
end-to-end forecasting system
D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region
Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)
3
End-to-end forecasting system
D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region
Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)
4
Atmospheric models: ensembles
• COSMO-LEPS (COSMO)
• 10 km; +132h; COSMO-LEPS EFI (MeteoSwiss)
• MOGREPS (Met Office, United Kingdom)
• 25 km; +54h
• SREPS (INM, Spain)
• 27 km, +72h
• COSMO-SREPS (COSMO)
• 10 km, +72h
• PEPS (SRNWP)
• 7 km, +42h
• micro-PEPS (DWD for D-PHASE)
• 2 km; +18h
D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region
Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)
5
End-to-end forecasting system
D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region
Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)
6
Atmospheric models: high resolution
• MM5 (University of Hohenheim)
• 2 km (?); +24h (?)
• COSMO-models (COSMO)
• 2.2 km; +18h
• 2.8 km; +30h, +48h, +21h
• AROME (Météo-France)
• 4 km (output grid); +30h
• MOLOCH (ISAC-CNR, Italy)
• 2.2 km; +39h
• GEM-LAM (EC, Canada)
• 2.5 km; +24h
• MOLOCH, MM5, and WRF outside of COPS domain
• ALADIN and QBOLAM at coarser resolution
D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region
Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)
7
End-to-end forecasting system
D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region
Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)
10
Hydrological catchments
D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region
Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)
11
End-to-end forecasting system
D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region
Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)
14
Common (centralised) platforms
Visualisation Platform (VP):
• to visualise (display) all products and all alerts;
main source of information for forecasters and end
users (and possibly also useful for COPS mission
planning team)
• interface for (some of) the users to submit their
feedback on the available products and alerts,
respectively
• realised by Next Generation Software (Salzburg)
• www.d-phase.info
D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region
Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)
15
VP, level 1: Alpine region
select forecast range
today
go to:
tomorrow
days 3 - 5
model products
select accumulation time
Σ03h
Σ06h
Σ12h Σ24h
Σ48h
monitoring products
Σ72h max
feedback
VP, level 2: Alpine sub-region, country
select forecast range
Σ03h
Σ06h
Σ12h Σ24h
Σ48h
Σ72h max
forecaster 2
days 3 - 5
det model 4
tomorrow
ensemble 3
today
select accumulation time
44%
57%
go to:
model products
nowcasting products
monitoring products
feedback
VP, level 3-a: target area
today & tomorrow
days 3 - 5
now
select forecast range
Tue 16
00
ensemble
system 3
IT: 15.10 12 UTC
deterministic
model 4
IT: 16.10 03 UTC
deterministic
model 7
IT: 16.10 00 UTC
Wed 17
00
12
12
00
S 03h
63% 36% 58% 24%
max: 31mm / 03h on Tue 16.10 at 21 UTC
(mean: 22mm / 03h; min: 1mm / 03h)
S 06h
52% 88% 70% 64%
max: 53mm / 06h on Tue 16.10 at 21 UTC
(mean: 38 mm / 06h; min: 12mm / 06h)
S 12h
38% 44% 50% 59% 54% 78%
max: 80mm / 12h on Wed 17.10 at 03 UTC
(mean: 54mm / 12h; min: 21mm / 12h)
S 24h
38% 46% 46% 52%
max: 96mm / 24h on Wed 17.10 at 06 UTC
(mean: 68mm / 24h; min: 31mm / 24h)
S 03h
max: 55mm / 03h on Tue 16.10 at 15 UTC
S 06h
max: 61mm / 06h on Tue 16.10 at 16 UTC
S 12h
max: 61mm / 12h on Tue 17.10 at 16 UTC
S 24h
max: 61mm / 24h on Tue 17.10 at 16 UTC
S 03h
max: 20mm / 03h on Tue 16.10 at 16 UTC
S 06h
max: 20mm / 06h on Tue 16.10 at 16 UTC
S 12h
S 24h
show 2D field
go to:
model products
nowcasting products
show meteogram
monitoring products
example for today & tomorrow
differences for days 3 – 5: bins of 6 hrs (rather than 3/1) & 12/24/48/72 hrs sums (rather than 03/06/12/24)
show thresholds
feedback
Common (centralised) platforms
Data Archive (DA)
• to archive all data, alerts, and feedbacks;
mainly for verification purposes
• also stores all COPS and GOP data
• physically based at the MPI in Hamburg
D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region
Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)
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More on atmospheric models
• list of output variables
• final version of document
• model products
• specification document should be finalised as soon as
possible; waiting for feedback from COPS
• generation of atmospheric model products
('quicklooks') with a common GrADS script kindly
provided by COPS (Matthias Grzeschik and HansStefan Bauer, University of Hohenheim)
• display of model products on D-PHASE Visualisation
Platform as well as at COPS OC
• alerts
D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region
Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)
23
Dry-runs: 26 February – 2 March 2007
• Pilot users only:
CLEPS/Montani, MOGREPS/Robertson, MM5/Bauer,
COSMOCH2/Ament, LAMI7/Cesari, ISACMOL/Davolio,
DIMOSOP/Ranzi, and PREVAH/Jaun&Zappa.
• Very useful:
• it triggered a lot of activities;
• we all realised that there still is a lot to be done;
• it showed us that our aim of a state-of-the-art distributed
end-to-end forecasting system is realistic;
• it confirmed that D-PHASE indeed has the potential to
become a very successful demonstration project;
• all in all a good motivation for the time (and work!) ahead.
D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region
Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)
24
Dry-runs: 26 February – 2 March 2007
• Visualisation Platform (VP):
• first version of level 1 running
• xml upload and visualisation successful
• display of model products not yet available (as are a few
other things)
• VP will remain online, also in between the dry-runs:
http://www.d-phase.info (password-protection will be
enabled shortly before the DOP)
• Data Archive (DA):
• upload and retrieval successfully tested
More details tomorrow ( Claudia Wunram)
D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region
Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)
25
Timetable
Dry-runs:
 26 February – 2 March 2007
 29 March – 4 April 2007
 24 April – 30 April 2007
Ramp-up:
 24 May – 31 May 2007
D-PHASE Operations Period (DOP):
 1 June – 30 November 2007
D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region
Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)
26
Organisation
• Steering Committee
•
Dorninger, Staudinger (A), Rotach, Schär (CH), Volkert, Wulfmeyer (D),
Bouttier, Richard (F), Buzzi, Frustaci, Ranzi, Rossa (I), Mylne (UK)
• Working Groups
•
•
•
•
WG-DI: Data interface
chair: Andrea Montani, ARPA-SIM (I)
WG-HEU: Hydrology and end users
co-chairs: Roberto Ranzi, U Brescia (I), Christoph Hegg, WSL (CH)
WG-VER: Verification
chair: Manfred Dorninger, U Vienna (A)
WG-DP: Data policy
chair Mathias Rotach, MeteoSwiss (CH)
• Project Coordinator: marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch
• For details: http://www.map.meteoswiss.ch/d-phase
D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region
Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)
27