Framing a “Wicked” Debate:
Subsistence, Nutrition, and
Indigenous Rights Versus
Deforestation, Air Pollution, and
Climate Change
Cynthia Fowler, Wofford College
Wicked Elements in the Problem of
Socio-environmental Change on Sumba
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Divergent perspectives
Incomplete understanding
Variable causes and effects
Changing conditions
Resolutions require risky tradeoffs
Sidestepping the Wicked Scale Bias
• Multilevel question
– How do Sumbanese and non Sumbanese perceive socioenvironmental change on Sumba?
• Global, regional, national level questions
– What are the contributions of agriculture to emissions of global
warming gases?
– What types of and how much emissions do agricultural fires
produce?
• Local level questions
– What types of agropastoral fires occur on Sumba?
– What are the socio-environmental changes occurring in
agropastoral communities on the island of Sumba in Eastern
Indonesia?
Global GHG Emissions By Source
EPA 2014
Emissions of Methane and Nitrous Oxide
from Burning Crop Residues in Indonesia
1997-2011
FAOSTAT 2014
Main Crops in Kodi, Sumba
Land Area in Hectares
Cassava
Rainfed Maize
Paddy
Rice
Rainfed
Rice
Rainfed
Maize
Rainfed Rice
Flooded Paddy Rice
Cassava
Emissions from Burning Crop Residues
1997-2011
FAOSTAT 2014
Emissions of CO2eq from Burning Biomass
in All Types of Land Cover
1997-2010
FAOSTAT 2014
Emissions from Burning Crop Residues in Indonesia
1997-2011
FAOSTAT 2014
Climate Change Predictions for Indonesia
MIXED, BENIGN, UNKNOWN
 Increase in temperature of 2-2.5°C
 Increase in precipitation of 0-10%
CONS
 Rising atmospheric CO2 may
produce stronger El Niños
 Delayed onset of monsoon season
 Delayed harvests
– Decreased yields
– Greater food insecurity
 Increased Asian monsoon intensity
More severe droughts associated
with El Niños
 Cyclones may decrease in number
of occurrences but increase in
severity
 Rise in sea levels by 0.6 – 1.0
meter with 10% increase in the
intensity of 1 in 100 year storm
surges
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WATER
Increase in water scarcity
(Béguin et al. 2011)
No changes in the number
of people who suffer from
water stress (Met Office
2011)
Moderate to high levels of
water security throughout
Indonesia relative to other
countries (Vörösmarty et al.
2010)
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Implications for
Climate Change
on Global Health
in Indonesia
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FOOD
Increase in food insecurity
Food security from
agricultural products remains
stable for another 40 years
Decrease of 11% by 2050 in
kilocalories available from
food
Increase of 300,000 children
who are malnourished by
2050
Increase of 19% in
malnourishment among
people of all ages by 2050
MAIZE
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A 3.83% decrease in maize
yields to 2020, 7.52%
decrease after 2050, and
10.60% decrease after 2080
• RESIDENCE
CO2 enrichment will
decrease yields of irrigated • Displacement of 2 million
people due to sea level rise
maize by 2050
CO2 enrichment may
• DISEASES
decrease or increase yields
• Shifting disease patterns
of rainfed maize by 2050
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RICE
A 1.02% decrease in rice
yields to 2020, a 1.53%
increase in rice yields after
2050, and 0.50% decrease
after 2080
CO2 fertilization will
improve yields of rainfed
and irrigated rice,
soybeans, and ground nuts
by 2050
MARINE RESOURCES
Decrease of 23%9 in marine
fisheries, which is one of
the largest reductions in
marine fisheries in the
world
A 23% decrease in 10-year
averaged maximum marine
catch between 2005 and
2055
Decrease of food from
marine resources
Judgments about Fire Ecology on Sumba
CONS
 Burning is
illegal
 Burning
produces
damaging
emissions
 Sometimes out
of control fires
damage
property and
harm people
PROS
 Burning is an
important crop
production
technique
 Burning is
culturally
meaningful
 Most fires are
controlled
MIXED, BENIGN,
UNKNOWN
 Fire
frequencies are
extremely high
 Most fires are
low intensity