Introduction to ERTAC EGU
Growth
Briefing for Executives
September 2009
Origins and Methods of ERTAC
ERTAC ad-hoc group of states, MJOs that
solve specific inventory problems.
 ERTAC EGU project: Build a lower cost,
stable equilibrium, faster, and transparent
alternative to IPM that will project future
year EGUs.
 Model development started 2 years ago.
Model is data intensive.

Attributes of ERTAC Model.
Conservative predictions: Don’t have big
swings in generation between states.
 Data intensive: needs a great deal of State
supplied data.
 Calculates future hourly estimates based
on base year activity.

Organization and Timeline
3 Subcommittees, Implementation,
Growth, Data Tracking, Renewable and
Conservation
 Recently produced an “East of The
Mississippi” run with 2007 base year and
2011 AEO growth rates.
 In November we will present run to EPA
with stakeholders to follow.
 Some Groups intend to run 2011 base
run in 2013.

SO2
NOX
HI
NORTH EAST USA
2007 AND 2020
SO2
SO2
NOX
HI
HI
SOUTH EAST USA
2007 AND 2020
SO2
NOX
HIHI
MIDWEST USA
2007 AND 2020
SOUTH EAST USA
2007 AND 2020