2014 Community Counts September 2014 1 Introduction________________________________________________ Community Counts is a project of The Community Foundation. The purpose of this annual report is to establish benchmarks and monitor trends in key economic and social indicators for the Shreveport-Bossier City area. By tracking progress in each of these priority indicators, the Community Foundation seeks to assess the impact of funding, as well as identify areas needing additional research and support. Community Counts serves as a scorecard on the quality of life for the ShreveportBossier City area. In its sixth edition, the 2014 Community Counts report builds upon the previous years’ benchmarking and evaluation approaches. The report examines ten comparative communities across a broad array of socio-economic indicators. The report provides community rankings for the area’s peer, comparative communities and provides a tool to assess how far we have “moved the needle” in improving our area’s social and economic health. Unlike previous reports, this year’s report places special emphasis on the social and economic indicators that contribute to our community’s progress in a number of important educational and workforce areas. Referred to as “cradle to career,” the report adds available school, parish, state and federal data to create an objective assessment tool to evaluate where we are making progress, identify areas that need more attention, and point to strategies and approaches that are already working and should be replicated across our area to support and create opportunities for long-term success for our area’s youth. While no report can provide an exhaustive evaluation of a community, this report uses the most recently available government and private data to create an objective assessment tool of how the Shreveport-Bossier City area fares in terms of its economic and social health when compared to other similar communities in our region. By providing a comparative context, this report can better inform community leaders, the media and the public about whether our area’s improvement or deterioration in a particular indicator is factual or a matter of perception. It also offers an additional resource for informing decisions about where future efforts and resources from both the public and private sectors should be directed. Comparative Communities The U.S. Census Bureau describes a Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) as an area that has “at least one urbanized area of 50,000 or more population, plus adjacent territory 2 that has a high degree of social and economic integration with the core as measured by commuting ties.” 1 The Shreveport-Bossier City, LA MSA includes Caddo, Bossier and De Soto parishes.2 A preliminary search of all MSA areas in the United States with a population within a 130,000 population range (+/- 130,000) of the Shreveport-Bossier MSA was conducted. The search yielded more than 90 areas. The search was narrowed to include MSAs located in Louisiana, states bordering Louisiana (Texas, Arkansas and Mississippi), Alabama, and Georgia. The search yielded fifteen areas. See Table 1. Table 1. Select MSAs by Population, 2012 Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) Population Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX Metro Area 389,980 Brownsville-Harlingen, TX Metro Area 415,557 Columbus, GA-AL Metro Area 306,326 Corpus Christi, TX Metro Area 435,596 Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO Metro Area 482,013 Fort Smith, AR-OK Metro Area 298,110 Huntsville, AL Metro Area 430,734 Jackson, MS Metro Area 548,945 Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX Metro Area 420,133 Lafayette, LA Metro Area 279,781 Laredo, TX Metro Area 259,172 Lubbock, TX Metro Area 291,548 Mobile, AL Metro Area 413,936 Montgomery, AL Metro Area 377,844 Savannah, GA Metro Area 361,941 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates at http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml. Median household income and racial demographics were compared. Areas with median household incomes more than twenty-five percent higher or lower than the ShreveportBossier MSA area were eliminated.3 Areas with White, Black and Hispanic (any race) populations more than twenty percentage points higher or lower than the ShreveportBossier MSA were also eliminated.4 See Figure 2. 1 Office of Management and Budget, OMB Bulletin No. 10-02, December 1, 2009. Webster Parish was added to the Shreveport-Bossier City MSA in February 2013. Data reflecting this change will be included in next year's report. 2 MSAs with median household income above $55,147 and below $33,089 were eliminated. In this case one MSA, Brownsville, TX, was eliminated. 3 4 Five MSA areas were eliminated. 3 Table 2. MSAs by Population, Income, and Race/Ethnicity, 2012 Median Household Income White Black Hispanic (any race) 389,980 $ 43,421 69.5% 23.6% 13.8% 415,557 $ 30,953 89.0% 0.7% 88.4% Columbus, GA-AL Metro Area 306,326 $ 42,972 52.6% 40.5% 6.1% Corpus Christi, TX Metro Area Fayetteville-SpringdaleRogers, AR-MO Metro Area 435,596 $ 49,047 86.0% 3.9% 58.3% 482,013 $ 45,611 84.0% 2.2% 15.5% Fort Smith, AR-OK Metro Area 298,110 $ 36,061 81.4% 3.5% 8.6% Huntsville, AL Metro Area 430,734 $ 36,382 71.6% 22.1% 4.9% Jackson, MS Metro Area Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX Metro Area 548,945 $ 42,604 48.9% 48.3% 2.2% 420,133 $ 48,633 67.2% 19.9% 21.2% Lafayette, LA Metro Area 279,781 $ 46,813 69.0% 25.4% 3.8% Laredo, TX Metro Area 259,172 $ 36,624 94.2% 0.1% 95.4% Lubbock, TX Metro Area 291,548 $ 41,667 79.8% 7.2% 33.3% Mobile, AL Metro Area 413,936 $ 39,691 60.6% 35.1% 2.5% Montgomery, AL Metro Area 377,844 $ 44,674 52.3% 43.1% 3.0% Savannah, GA Metro Area 361,941 $ 47,059 61.0% 33.7% Shreveport-Bossier City, LA Metro Area 406,253 $ 44,118 56.4% 39.3% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates at http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml. 5.5% City (MSA) Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX Metro Area Brownsville-Harlingen, TX Metro Area Population Percent 3.7% Shreveport-Bossier City’s peer, comparative MSA communities in this year’s report are Beaumont-Port Arthur (TX), Columbus (GA-AL), Huntsville (AL), Jackson (MS), Killeen-Temple-Ft. Hood (TX), Lafayette (LA), Mobile (AL), Montgomery (AL), and Savannah (GA). All communities remain unchanged from last year’s report.5 In an effort to keep the 2014 report consistent and manageable in terms of scope, this year’s report used a population cutoff within +/- 130,000 of the Shreveport-Bossier City MSA. Had last year’s cutoff within +/- 150,000 of the Shreveport-Bossier City MSA been used, the Chattanooga, TN-GA MSA and GulfportBiloxi, MS MSA would have both been within the population range, although the Chattanooga MSA would have been eliminated on the basis of its racial composition. 5 4 Table 3. Comparative Communities for 2014 Community Counts Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX Columbus, GA-AL Huntsville, AL Jackson, MS Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX Lafayette, LA Mobile, AL Montgomery, AL Savannah, GA Shreveport-Bossier City, LA Social and Economic Indicators The 2014 Community Counts report examines twenty-five indicators. New indicators (2) in this year’s report include Early Childhood and Workforce Training, both in the Education and Sciences section of the report. The Adult Literacy and Reading, which was new in last year’s report, was eliminated due to a lack of new data. The Commuting indicator was eliminated in this year’s report. While a short commuting time is a very appealing aspect of life in the Shreveport-Bossier City area, it is not one of the area’s most-pressing issues. The indicators are roughly categorized into four broad categories: Social (9 total); Economic (6 total); Education & Sciences (6); and Quality of Life (4 total). Due to limited data across comparable communities, the Juvenile Justice, Health Outcomes, Municipal Debt, Workforce Training, and Civic Involvement (5) are provided for illustrative purposes and are not included in the scores. 5 Indicators Social 1. Population 2. Poverty 3. Government Dependence 4. Juvenile Justice 5. Health Outcomes 6. Community Wellness 7. Health Care Coverage 8. Housing Affordability 9. Philanthropy 14. Productivity 15. Municipal Finance Economic 10. Employment & Workforce 11. Income 12. Income Equality 13. Credit Worthiness Quality of Life 22. Air and Water 23. Cost of Living 24. Civic Involvement 25. Crime Education & Sciences 16. Early Childhood 17. K-12 Education 18. Higher Education 19. Workforce Training 20 Innovation 21. Internet & Computer Literacy Additional data in is included in the Appendix. This data does not affect the rankings. 6 1. Population_____________________________________ RANK 7 of 10 MSA Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX Columbus, GA-AL Huntsville, AL Jackson, MS Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX Lafayette, LA Mobile, AL Montgomery, AL Savannah, GA Shreveport-Bossier City, LA Population Growth Data Rank 2.3% 10 8.8% 5 22.0% 2 8.7% 6 24.5% 1 15.6% 3.9% 7.7% 20.1 8.1% 4 9 8 3 7 Commentary Between 1992 and 2011, the Shreveport-Bossier MSA, which includes Caddo, Bossier and DeSoto parishes, lost over $290 million in adjusted gross income (AGI) as a result of people -- and their money -- departing the area for new opportunities. 6 A failure by political and civic leadership to communicate and address an area's population growth -- or a lack thereof -- is not only evidence of a deep and systemic failure, it portends an inability to navigate the area into a position taking one of the top spots in future years. It must be understand that this issue not only represents money that might have otherwise been spent in our geographic area to support and grow the local economy, it should also represents future contributions to the area's economic and civic life. The Shreveport-Bossier Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), was home to just over 406,000 residents in 2012.7 While a population growth rate of just over eight percent might seem strong, it is sluggish when compared to the area's comparative communities. The population category is comprised of one measure: population growth from 2002 to 2012 (See Figure 1.1). At an 8.1 percent population growth rate, the Shreveport-Bossier City area lags behind all but three of its comparable communities. In fact, the leading Author's calculations based on IRS wealth migration data provided by Travis Brown, How Money Walks at http://www.howmoneywalks.com/irs-tax-migration/. 6 U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates at http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml. 7 7 MSA, Killeen-Temple-Ft. Hood, grew at 24.5 percent over the past decade and the Huntsville MSA grew at 22 percent. Moving the Needle All nine of the comparative communities in the 2014 Community Counts report positive population growth over the ten-year period from 2002 to 2012. The Shreveport-Bossier MSA improved its rate by just over 1 percent, increasing to 8.1 percent in this year’s report. While the area's most robust population growth in the past thirty years took place in Bossier Parish, Caddo and De Soto Parishes have both near even with their 1982 population counts.8 Both parishes suffered dramatic population losses in the 1980s and have only recently recovered. See Figures 1.2, 1.3, and 1.4. Figure 1.1. Population Growth, 2002 to 2012 Shreveport-Bossier City, LA 8.1% Savannah, GA 20.1% Montgomery, AL Mobile, AL 7.7% 3.9% Lafayette, LA 15.6% Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX 24.5% Jackson, MS 8.7% Huntsville, AL 22.0% Columbus, GA-AL Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX 0.0% 8.8% 2.3% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% Source: Author’s calculations based on U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates at http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml. U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates at http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml and custom search of U.S Census Bureau and U.S. Economic Development Administration data at http://www.statsamerica.org/innovation/anydata/custom.asp. 8 8 Figure 1.2. Population Growth in Bossier Parish, 1982 to 2012 45.0% 42.1% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.4% 17.8% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.2% 0.0% 1982-2012 1982-1992 1992-2002 2002-2012 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates at http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml and custom search of U.S Census Bureau and U.S. Economic Development Administration data at http://www.statsamerica.org/innovation/anydata/custom.asp. Figure 1.3. Population Growth in Caddo Parish, 1982 to 2012 4.0% 3.3% 3.0% 2.0% 0.9% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -0.4% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% 1982-2012 -4.5% 1982-1992 1992-2002 2002-2012 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates at http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml and custom search of U.S Census Bureau and U.S. Economic Development Administration data at http://www.statsamerica.org/innovation/anydata/custom.asp. 9 Figure 1.4. Population Growth in DeSoto Parish, 1982 to 2012 5.5% 6.0% 3.0% 2.3% 1.8% 0.0% -3.0% -4.7% -6.0% 1982-2012 1982-1992 1992-2002 2002-2012 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates at http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml and custom search of U.S Census Bureau and U.S. Economic Development Administration data at http://www.statsamerica.org/innovation/anydata/custom.asp. 10 2. Poverty________________________________________ RANK 6 of 10 Poverty Rate Data Overall Rank 19.1% 8 MSA Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX Columbus, GA-AL Huntsville, AL Jackson, MS Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX Lafayette, LA Mobile, AL Montgomery, AL Savannah, GA Shreveport-Bossier City, LA 18.7% 11.9% 22.2% 15.0% 7 1 10 2 17.9% 21.1% 18.0% 18.0% 18.1% 3 9 4 (tie) 4(tie) 6 Commentary This year, 2014, marks the 50-year anniversary of the War on Poverty. For all of the resources spent and efforts made, poverty is a seemingly intractable problem. The nation has already spent $20 trillion9 and, in the most optimistic analysis the poverty rate has fallen from 26 percent in 1967 to only 16 percent in 2012.10 Even if one believes that the War on Poverty has been effective, one is left wondering how to address the double-digit poverty that remains. In 2012, the poverty threshold for a family of four that included two related children under age 18 was $23,283.11 The poverty threshold for a single person under age 65 was $11,945.12 If a family’s pre-tax income is below the poverty threshold, then that individual or related individuals in the household are in poverty. The poverty indicator is comprised of one measure: poverty rate for 2012 (See Figure 2.1). The Shreveport-Bossier City MSA poverty rate of 18.1 percent is the sixth-highest among its comparative communities. Robert Rector, "How the War on Poverty was Lost," Wall Street Journal, January 7, 2014 at http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303345104579282760272285556. 9 Dylan Matthews, "Everything you need to know about the war on poverty," Washington Post, January 8, 2014 at http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/01/08/everything-you-need-toknow-about-the-war-on-poverty/. 10 United States Census Bureau Poverty Thresholds at https://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty/data/threshld/index.html. 11 12 Ibid. 11 Moving the Needle The poverty rate for the Shreveport-Bossier City area has declined compared to 2011, improving the area's ranking by one spot. Unfortunately, the area's black population saw an increase in poverty over the prior year. Poverty in our area remains significantly higher for blacks (32.4 percent) than for whites, (8.0 percent) who saw a dramatic decline over 2011. See Figure 2.2. Thirty-two percent of adults age 25 and over with less than a high school degree or equivalency faced poverty in 2012. This is down slightly from 2011. See Figure 2.3. The poverty rate increased for high school graduates (or equivalency) to 17.3 percent, declined slightly for those with some college or associate’s degree to 11.5 percent, and fell to 3.2 percent for college graduates. Bossier, Caddo and De Soto parishes have seen increases in their poverty rates over the past decade. See Figures 2.4, 2.5, and 2.6. The Shreveport-Bossier City, LA area has a long way to go to effectively counter and reverse our seemingly intractable poverty problem. As discussed in the 2011 Community Counts report, New York City Mayor, Michael R. Bloomberg, created a Center for Economic Opportunity to implement innovative and evidence-based approaches to combating poverty.13 Any evaluation should include a full inventory of both government and private efforts. Area leaders should – publicly or privately – conduct similar evaluations to determine if more effective strategies are available to combat poverty in our area. 13 For more information, visit http://www.nyc.gov/html/ceo/html/home/home.shtml. 12 Figure 2.1. Poverty Rate by MSA, 2012 Shreveport-Bossier City, LA 18.1% Savannah, GA 18.0% Montgomery, AL 18.0% Mobile, AL 21.1% Lafayette, LA 17.9% Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX 15.0% Jackson, MS 22.2% Huntsville, AL 11.9% Columbus, GA-AL 18.7% Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX 0.0% 19.1% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates at http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml. Figure 2.2. Poverty by Race for Shreveport-Bossier City, LA MSA, 20102012 35.0% 30.0% 32.4% 31.2% 29.9% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 9.6% 10.5% 8.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2010 2011 2012 Non-Hispanic White Black Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates at http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml. 13 Figure 2.3. Poverty by Educational Attainment for Shreveport-Bossier City, LA MSA, 2010-2012 40.0% 32.6% 32.0% 30.0% 27.6% 20.0% 15.4% 16.1% 17.3% 11.8% 11.5% 9.5% 10.0% 4.8% 4.6% 3.2% 0.0% Less than high school High school graduate graduate (includes equivalency) 2010 Some college, associate's degree 2011 Bachelor's degree or higher 2012 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates at http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml. Figure 2.4. Poverty in Bossier Parish, 2002 to 2012 20 15 12.5 13.4 14.4 15 14.9 13.6 12.1 14.3 14 14.1 13.3 10 5 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates at http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml and custom search of U.S Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and U.S. Economic Development Administration data at http://www.statsamerica.org/innovation/anydata/custom.asp. 14 Figure 2.5. Poverty in Caddo Parish, 2002 to 2012 25 20 23.1 19.6 19.7 22.2 22.9 20.5 19.8 19.5 20.4 18.7 16.9 15 10 5 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates at http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml and custom search of U.S Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and U.S. Economic Development Administration data at http://www.statsamerica.org/innovation/anydata/custom.asp. Figure 2.6. Poverty in De Soto Parish, 2002 to 2012 30 27.3 25 20 21.6 19.1 19.2 19.5 19.9 18.1 19.3 21.2 21.2 22.4 15 10 5 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates at http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml and custom search of U.S Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and U.S. Economic Development Administration data at http://www.statsamerica.org/innovation/anydata/custom.asp. 15 3. Government Dependence___________________________ RANK 5 of 10 Percent Families w/ Food Stamp/SNAP Benefits MSA Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX Columbus, GA-AL Huntsville, AL Jackson, MS Killeen-TempleFort Hood, TX Lafayette, LA Mobile, AL Montgomery, AL Savannah, GA ShreveportBossier City, LA Data Rank 6 (tie) 18.5% 20.2% 12.7% 18.5% 8 3 6 (tie) 11.0% 14.1% 23.8% 20.4% 12.1% 1 4 10 9 2 18.4% 5 Commentary In a highly-controversial article, New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof told of the Jackson, Kentucky community where children were discouraged from attending literacy classes due to parents' fears of losing disability checks.14 Our area is facing increases in its under age 18 disability caseload. See Figure 3.1. While there has been no investigation into the reasons for these increases in the Shreveport-Bossier City area, it is important to be aware of the incentives that are in place that could influence caseload levels. The government dependence indicator is composed of one measure: the percent of families receiving Food Stamp / SNAP benefits. (Participation in TANF and SSI both trigger automatic eligibility in the SNAP program.)15 Of the ten comparative communities, the Shreveport-Bossier City, LA MSA ranks 5th, with the Killeen-TempleFort Hood MSA being the least-dependent and the Mobile, AL MSA being the mostdependent. Nicolas D. Kristof, "Profiting from a Child's Illiteracy, New York Times, December 7, 2012 at http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/09/opinion/sunday/kristof-profiting-from-a-childsilliteracy.html?pagewanted=all. 14 Karen Spar, “Federal Benefits and Services for People with Low Income: Programs, Policy, and Spending, FY2008-FY2009, Congressional Research Service, January 31, 2011, p. 31 at http://greenbook.waysandmeans.house.gov/sites/greenbook.waysandmeans.house.gov/files/2012/docu ments/RL41625_gb.pdf. 15 16 The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Act of 1996 was designed to change the nature of the AFDC (Aid to Families with Dependent Children) cash assistance program now known as TANF (Temporary Assistance to Needy Families). Time limits and work requirements on receiving benefits were established. And while there has been a dramatic decline in the share of the population receiving these benefits, a large share of this population has merely been moved to rolls of the SSI (Supplemental Security Income) rolls which provide cash assistance for the disabled.16 While the federal SSI program has work incentives, it does not have work requirements and cash benefits are more lucrative than TANF. In fact, according to a study published by the Social Security Administration’s (SSA) Office of Policy and highlighted in the 2013 Community Counts, it is financially advantageous to both the state and the individual to move from TANF to SSI.17 More than one-third of the children in our area are living in families receiving government assistance. There is a growing number of children on welfare -- and disability, in particular -- in our area, as well as a growing number of adults in these programs. See Figure 3.3. This poses important questions about how to break the cycle of inter-generational government dependency, as well as recognizing that a failure to do so will only lead to higher social costs and diminished prospects for many of these children. Steve Wamhoff and Michael Wiseman, “The TANF/SSI Connection,” Social Security Bulletin, vol. 66, no. 4, 2005/2006 at http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v66n4/v66n4p21.html. 16 17 Ibid. 17 Figure 3.1. Total SSI Recipients under age 18 by Parish, 2002 vs. 2012 4,000 3,214 2,118 2,000 781 422 170 257 Bossier Parish Caddo Parish DeSoto Parish December 2002 December 2012 Source: U.S. Social Security Administration, SSI Recipients by State and County, December 2002 at http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/statcomps/ssi_sc/2002/la.html and SSI Recipients by State and County, December 2012 at http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/statcomps/ssi_sc/2012/la.html. Figure 3.2. Percent Children in Housholds Receiving SSI, Cash Assistance and/or Food Stamp / SNAP Benefits by MSA in 2012 Shreveport-Bossier City, LA 35.0% Savannah, GA 27.3% Montgomery, AL 36.9% Mobile, AL 43.8% Lafayette, LA 27.1% Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX 22.6% Jackson, MS 36.6% Huntsville, AL 35.8% Columbus, GA-AL 35.8% Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX 0.0% 34.8% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates at http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml. 18 Figure 3.3. Total SSI Recipients by Parish, 2002 vs. 2012 16,000 13,043 12,000 9,988 8,000 4,000 3,181 2,035 1,234 1,356 Bossier Parish Caddo Parish December 2002 Total DeSoto Parish December 2012 Total Source: U.S. Social Security Administration, SSI Recipients by State and County, December 2002 at http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/statcomps/ssi_sc/2002/la.html and SSI Recipients by State and County, December 2012 at http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/statcomps/ssi_sc/2012/la.html. 19 4. Juvenile Justice__________________________________________ RANK No Score Assigned Due to Lack of Data Across MSAs Commentary In the first report of its kind in more than a decade, the U.S. Department of Education's Office of Civil Rights (OCR) analyzed civil rights data from every public school in the U.S. The study found that ethnic and racial minorities, led by boys, faced school suspensions and disciplinary action at higher rates than their white counterparts -- even in the earliest school years. Among the study's conclusions, nationally: "Black students represent 18% of preschool enrollment but 42% of students suspended once, and 48% of the students suspended more than once."18 A similar pattern is observed in the Shreveport-Bossier City area for public school students.19 In all three area parish school districts, black students were far more likely to face in-school suspensions, out-of-school suspensions, and expulsions compared to their white counterparts. See Figures 4-1, 4-2, and 4-3. Figure 4-1. Black school enrollment and discipline vs. white school enrollment and discipline in Bossier Parish, 2011-2012 school year 75.0% 60.5% 50.7% 50.0% 41.6% 47.3% 42.3% 46.9% 35.3% 27.0% 25.0% 0.0% U.S. Department of Education, "Expansive Survey of America's Public Schools Reveals Troubling Racial Disparities," March 21, 2014 press release at http://www.ed.gov/news/press-releases/expansive-surveyamericas-public-schools-reveals-troubling-racial-disparities. 18 Author's search of U.S. Department of Education Office of Civil Rights, Civil Rights Data Collection database at http://www2.ed.gov/about/offices/list/ocr/data.html?src=rt/. 19 20 Source: Author's search of U.S. Department of Education Office of Civil Rights, Civil Rights Data Collection database at http://www2.ed.gov/about/offices/list/ocr/data.html?src=rt/. Figure 4-2. Black school enrollment and discipline vs. white school enrollment and discipline in Caddo Parish, 2011-2012 school year 100.0% 81.2% 75.0% 82.2% 83.5% 63.2% 50.0% 32.1% 25.0% 15.9% 15.1% 14.4% 0.0% Source: Author's search of U.S. Department of Education Office of Civil Rights, Civil Rights Data Collection database at http://www2.ed.gov/about/offices/list/ocr/data.html?src=rt/. Figure 4-3. Black school enrollment and discipline vs. white school enrollment and discipline in DeSoto Parish, 2011-2012 school year 75.0% 50.0% 65.7% 45.5% 68.2% 73.2% 50.4% 30.4% 25.0% 28.7% 22.7% 0.0% -25.0% Source: Author's search of U.S. Department of Education Office of Civil Rights, Civil Rights Data Collection database at http://www2.ed.gov/about/offices/list/ocr/data.html?src=rt/. 21 The sample size for our area's pre-school enrollment was too small to draw useful comparisons to the national averages. However, the national data suggests that disciplinary action disproportionately affecting minority children is observed in the earliest pre-school years. Community efforts should be directed toward investigating whether these trends are present in the earliest years of education in our area public schools, the possible causes of these disproportionate outcomes, and what types of personnel training and/or student interventions might have a positive impact on discipline in the schools. While it would be premature to draw any conclusions from these findings, the impact of suspensions are well-documented. According to the U.S. Department of Education, "Suspended students are less likely to graduate on time and more likely to be suspended again. They are also more likely to repeat a grade, drop out, and become involved in the juvenile justice system."20 The racial disparities observed in the public school system are also evident in the juvenile justice system. There has been a rapid increase in the number of juvenile arrests, but the racial disparity of those arrests is even more alarming. (Due to unavailable arrest data from the De Soto Parish Sheriff, Bossier Parish Sheriff, and the Bossier City Police Department for the under age 18 population, this analysis examines arrest and population data from Caddo Sheriff and the Shreveport Police Department.) Not only have arrests increased dramatically, they have increased despite a decline in youth population. See Figures 4.4 and 4.5. For many children, the intersection of poverty, educational failure, family violence or addiction, and neighborhood disorder leads them to a point where they fall into criminal activity. It is imperative that a community understands that this is, likely, the last opportunity to re-direct the trajectory of many of these children’s lives. The questions of why these racial disparities exist and have been identified even among our area's youngest population should be a top priority. The costs of not re-directing these children’s lives will be paid by in the forms of police and incarceration, as well as immeasurable social costs. The criminal justice system is where our citizens are sent as a last resort – a signal that every other institution of government and civil society has failed. 20 U.S. Department of Education. 22 Figure 4.4. Population Growth for Under Age 18 in Caddo Parish by Race, 2012 vs. 1994 White Black 0.0% -5.0% -5.3% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% -19.7% -25.0% Source: Custom search using Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Programs, Easy Access to Juvenile Populations: 1990-2012 at http://www.ojjdp.gov/ojstatbb/ezapop/asp/profile_selection.asp. Figure 4.5. Arrests for Under Age 18 in Caddo Parish, 1994 and 2012 600 557 500 425 413 400 300 200 291 144 134 100 0 White Black 1994 Total 2011 Source: Custom search using Bureau of Justice Statistics, Arrest Data Analysis Tool – Agency Level Counts at http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/index.cfm?ty=datool&surl=/arrests/index.cfm# and custom search using Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Programs, Easy Access to Juvenile Populations: 1990-2011 at http://www.ojjdp.gov/ojstatbb/ezapop/asp/profile_selection.asp. 23 5. Health Outcomes_________________________________ RANK No score assigned due to lack of data across MSAs Mortality Morbidity (rank out of 64 (rank out of 64 Louisiana parishes) Louisiana parishes) Parish Bossier Caddo De Soto 6 47 51 Health Outcome (rank out of 64 Louisiana parishes) 16 43 49 9 47 54 Commentary The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and the University of Wisconsin’s Population Health Institute has developed a tool to measure health care outcomes and health factors at the county-level in the United States.21 The purpose of this data is to assist policymakers and community leaders in improving community health. Using vital statistics data from the National Center for Health Statistics and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), researchers measured health outcomes using length of life (mortality) and quality of life (morbidity) for counties within each state. The health outcomes indicator is composed of two measures: mortality and morbidity. Of the 64 parishes included in this project in Louisiana, Bossier Parish ranked in the top half for both mortality and morbidity.22 Caddo and De Soto Parishes ranked in the bottom half of parishes for both measures. See Table 5.1. Table 5.1. County Health and Rankings Roadmaps Health Outcomes Measure Weighted Value Mortality 50 percent Premature death Morbidity 10 percent Poor or fair health Poor physical health days 10 percent 10 percent Poor mental health days 20 percent Low birthweight Source: County Health and Rankings Roadmaps, Health Outcomes at http://www.countyhealthrankings.org/health-outcomes. County Health and Rankings Roadmaps (A project of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and the University of Wisconsin Population Health Institute) at http://www.countyhealthrankings.org/roadmaps. 21 22 County Health and Rankings Roadmaps at http://www.countyhealthrankings.org/rankings/data/LA. 24 Unfortunately, our area seems to be losing ground in terms of its relative health care outcomes. See Figure 5.1. Between the 2010 and 2013 reports, our area's health care outcomes are getting worse when compared to the rest of the state. Even Bossier Parish, which is among the healthiest parishes in the state, has lost ground. Bossier remained constant in its relative morbidity compared to last year's report, but it lost ground in its relative mortality. Caddo Parish lost ground in both its relative mortality and morbidity. DeSoto Parish lost ground in its relative mortality, but saw gains in morbidity. All three parishes fell in their relative health outcomes rankings. Figure 5.1. Health Outcomes Rank by Parish, 2010 and 2013 60 54 47 50 42 40 36 30 20 10 9 4 0 Bossier Caddo 2010 De Soto 2013 Source: County Health and Rankings Roadmaps at http://www.countyhealthrankings.org/rankings/data/LA. The report also provides detailed data and a summary rank of health factors that, according to their report, have the greatest influence on health outcomes. The data for our area's health care outcomes and health care factors are listed in Table 5.2. While this project is a great first step in assisting local communities in identifying the areas of health care need in the community, both more information and more timely information on these factors is needed in order to track the impact of local efforts on community health. 25 Table 5.2 Health Care Outcomes and Factors by Parish County Bossier Caddo De Soto 7,538 11,115 11,669 Mortality Premature death (years of potential life lost before age 75 per 100,000 pop) Morbidity Percent poor of fair health Number of poor physical health days (avg. # in past 30 days) 18 18 20 3.5 3.7 3.8 Number of poor mental health days (avg. # in past 30 days) 3.5 2.8 3.8 10.9 14.2 13.4 29 22 28 31 32 37 27 31 32 18 13 13 Percent low birthweight births (percent of live births with weight < 2500 grams) Health Behaviors Percent smokers (percent of adults that smoke) Percent obese (percent of adults that report a BMI >= 30) Percent physically inactive (percent of adults that report no leisure time physical activity) Percent excessive drinkers (percent of adults who report heavy or bringe drinking) 26 Motor vehicle mortality rate (crash deaths per 100,000 population) 15 19 26 510 1512 874 53 67 63 2304:1 998:1 4455:1 2254:1 1606:1 13473:1 94 84 109 82 80 73 61.1 59.8 62.5 11.3 11.2 10.8 2 84 50 11.1 9.4 7.5 STD infections (chlamydia rate per 100,000 population) Teen birth rate (per 1,000 females ages 15-19) Clinical Care Primary care physician ratio (Ratio of population to primary care physicians) Dentist ratio (Ratio of population to dentists) Preventable hospital stays (rate per 1,000 Medicare enrollees) Diabetic screening (percent of diabetics that receive HbA1c screening) Percent mammography screening (percent of Medicare females that receive screening) Physical Environment Daily fine particulate matter (average daily measure in micrograms per cubic meter) Drinking water safety (percent of population exposed to water exceeding a violation limit in the past year) Access to recreational facilities (rate per 100,000 27 population) Access to healthy foods (percent of population who lives in poverty and more than 1 or 10 miles from a grocery store) 7 14 10 56 55 47 Percent fast food restaurants (percent of all restaurants that are fast food) Note: The social and economic environment factors that are used to calculate health care outcomes are not included in this table. Most are covered in the education and poverty indicators of this report. Source: County Health and Rankings Roadmaps at http://www.countyhealthrankings.org/rankings/data/LA. 28 6. Community Wellness______________________________ RANK 7 of 10 MSA Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX Columbus, GA-AL Huntsville, AL Jackson, MS Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX Lafayette, LA Mobile, AL Montgomery, AL Savannah, GA Shreveport-Bossier City, LA Percent of Obese Adults Data Rank 32.5 9 32.1 23.8 28.9 25.3 8 1 6 3 26.6 33.7 27.1 25.2 30.8 4 10 5 2 7 Commentary Three out of ten adults in our area are obese and the vast majority is overweight, according to a recent Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Survey. The community wellness category is comprised of one measure: percent of obese adults. Obesity is calculated using the Body Mass Index (BMI) define obesity which is a measure of body fat based on height and weight that is calculated separately for adult men and women.23 The Shreveport-Bossier City, LA MSA ranked 7th in this category with an obesity rate of 30.8 percent.24 See Figure 6.1. Obesity is well-documented as a leading cause of a host of other health care problems, such as hypertension, heart disease, and diabetes. The National Institutes of Health estimates that obesity costs $1,429 per person per year in additional healthcare costs.25 If our area were able to cut the obesity rate in half, the annual savings could exceed $70 million. That would be in addition to non-monetary gains that come with a healthier lifestyle and, in some cases, sharing that lifestyle with one's children. Compared to the prior year's survey data, the obesity rate in our area increased by more than three percent. Preliminary steps to combat and reverse the obesity problem should Gallup-Healthways defines normal weight as BMI as 18.5 to <25, overweight as BMI 25 to <30, and obese as BMI 30 and above. 23 24 Source: Custom search of Gallup Analytics at https://analytics.gallup.com. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Adult Obesity Facts at http://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/adult.html. 25 29 focus on evaluating food retail in our area26, investigating if and what mobile social marketing strategies might be used to promote nutrition and physical activity in our community27, and conducting a community-wide inventory of current programs and initiatives to determine if successful programs around the country can be integrated into our area’s current efforts.28 The ultimate solutions to obesity are simple: better food choices and exercise, which can be an activity as simple as walking. How to best educate and change lifestyles is where the challenge lies. Figure 6.1. Percent Adult Obesity by MSA in 2012 Shreveport-Bossier City, LA 30.8% Savannah, GA 25.2% Montgomery, AL 27.1% Mobile, AL 33.7% Lafayette, LA 26.6% Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX 25.3% Jackson, MS 28.9% Huntsville, AL 23.8% Columbus, GA-AL 32.1% Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX 32.5% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% Source: Custom search of Gallup Analytics at https://analytics.gallup.com. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Division of Nutrition, Physical Activity, and Obesity, “Healthier Food Retail: Beginning the Assessment Process in Your State or Community” at http://www.cdc.gov/obesity/downloads/hfrassessment.pdf. 26 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Social Marketing Resources at http://www.cdc.gov/nccdphp/DNPAO/socialmarketing/index.html. Financial incentives - discounts and financial payments - could be provided for participation in events and activities. 27 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “Stories from the Field” at http://www.cdc.gov/obesity/stateprograms/statestories.html. 28 30 7. Health Care Coverage_____________________________ RANK 8 of 10 Percent Uninsured Data MSA Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX Columbus, GA-AL Huntsville, AL Jackson, MS Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX Lafayette, LA Mobile, AL Montgomery, AL Savannah, GA Shreveport-Bossier City, LA 22.4% Overall Rank 10 15.0% 12.1% 16.0% 14.2% 4 1 5 (tie) 3 16.0% 16.1% 12.2% 17.4% 16.5% 5 (tie) 7 2 9 8 Commentary The health care coverage indicator is comprised of one measure: health care coverage in 2012. While the Shreveport-Bossier City MSA reduced its uninsured rate by two percentage points, it did not change its ranking from the eighth spot. The ShreveportBossier City area lags behind all but two of its comparable communities, the Savannah, GA and Beaumont-Port Arthur MSA areas. See Figure 7.1. Moving the Needle The Shreveport-Bossier City MSA area’s uninsured rate decreased from its 2011 level of 18.5 percent.29 But this decrease has been relatively consistent nationally as the economy continues its slow recovery from the financial crisis. Since the implementation of the Affordable Care Act, 49 of 50 states have experienced reductions in the adult uninsured population. In Louisiana, the adult uninsured population decreased from 21.7 percent to 18.4 percent.30 Simply put, one in five Louisianan lacked health insurance coverage in 2013. Today, that number, while U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates at http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml. 29 Dan Witters, "Arkansas, Kentucky Report Sharpest Drops in Uninsured Rate," Gallup Well-Being, August 5, 2014 at http://www.gallup.com/poll/174290/arkansas-kentucky-report-sharpest-dropsuninsured-rate.aspx#2. 30 31 improved, is closer to one in six. The irony of the highly-anticipated health insurance overhaul is that the issue of the uninsured could actually become worse. That is because health insurance premiums will likely increase over time -- making health insurance less affordable for those who are not eligible for generous subsidies. According to researchers at the University of Minnesota, the number of uninsured could increase by 489,000 in the next five years. 31 In Louisiana, the state's largest insurance carrier is predicting increases as high as almost 20 percent for some in 2015.32 Double-digit increases are likely for many. While the law has undoubtedly assisted many, the issue of the seemingly intractable problem of the uninsured will likely remain so. Figure 7.1. Percent Uninsured by MSA in 2012 Shreveport-Bossier City, LA 16.5% Savannah, GA 17.4% Montgomery, AL 12.2% Mobile, AL 16.1% Lafayette, LA 16.0% Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX 14.2% Jackson, MS 16.0% Huntsville, AL 12.1% Columbus, GA-AL 15.0% Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX 0.0% 22.4% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates at http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml. 31 Stephen T. Parente and Michael Ramlet, "National and State Impact Analyses of the ACA on Insurance Prices and Enrollment Beyond 2014," Medical Industry Leadership Institute, May 20, 2014 at http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/files/2014/05/ParenteAnalysis.pdf. Ted Griggs, "Hikes sought in health coverage rates," The Advocate, August 6, 2014 at http://theadvocate.com/news/business/9849885-123/hikes-sought-in-health-coverage. 32 32 8. Housing Affordability_____________________________ RANK 3 of 10 Percent Households in Which Gross Rent > 30 Percent of Income MSA Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX Columbus, GA-AL Huntsville, AL Jackson, MS Killeen-TempleFort Hood, TX Lafayette, LA Mobile, AL Montgomery, AL Savannah, GA Shreveport-Bossier City, LA Percent MortgageHolders in Which Owner Cost > 30 Percent of Income Data Rank Data Rank Overall Rank 52.4% 47.2% 45.3% 53.3% 7 2 1 8 27.6% 31.8% 21.4% 27.3% 6 9 1 5 6 (tie) 5 1 6 (tie) 47.5% 51.1% 54.6% 51.7% 58.1% 3 5 9 6 10 24.2% 27.0% 29.7% 30.2% 35.2% 2 4 7 8 10 2 4 9 8 10 49.3% 4 24.6% 3 3 Commentary The housing indicator is composed of two measures: percent renters where rent exceeds 30-percent of income and percent mortgage-holders where housing costs exceed 30percent of income. See Figure 8.1. The Shreveport-Bossier City ranks 3rd in the housing affordability category behind the more-affordable Huntsville, AL, and Killeen-TempleFt. Hood, TX MSA areas. Moving the Needle Not only is this an improvement in rank by one spot, but both rentals and home ownership became more affordable over the prior year. Since 2011, the percentage of renters spending more than 30 percent of income on rent decreased from 54.4 percent to 49.3 percent and from 27.7 to 24.6 percent for mortgage holders.33 Multiple streams of federal, state, local and charitable streams of money are addressing the local area housing issue, but many of these approaches are decades-old and inflexible – and not necessarily appropriate in the current economic climate. In order to continue to meet the area’s unmet housing needs and to bolster the quality of area neighborhoods, area leaders in the public, nonprofit and for-profit areas should conduct an area-wide “housing resource audit” to identify available resources, evaluating how effectively these resources are meeting the multiple and diverse housing needs of the local community, and explore new and innovative approaches to assistance delivery. U.S. Census Bureau, 2011 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates at http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml. 33 33 Figure 8.1. Percent Households with Gross Rent 30 Percent or More of Monthly Household Income by MSA, 2012 Shreveport-Bossier City, LA 49.3% 24.6% Savannah, GA Montgomery, AL 30.2% Mobile, AL 29.7% Lafayette, LA 51.7% 54.6% 51.1% 27.0% Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX 47.5% 24.2% Jackson, MS 53.3% 27.3% Huntsville, AL 45.3% 21.4% Columbus, GA-AL 31.8% Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX 0.0% 58.1% 35.2% 47.2% 52.4% 27.6% 10.0% 20.0% Renters 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% Owners with mortgage Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates at http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml. 34 9. Philanthropy____________________________________ RANK 4 of 10 MSA Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX Columbus, GA-AL Huntsville, AL Jackson, MS Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX Lafayette, LA Mobile, AL Montgomery, AL Savannah, GA Shreveport-Bossier City, LA Median Philanthropic Contribution Data Rank $3,790 6 $3,855 $4,373 $4,674 $3,306 5 2 1 8 $2,672 $3,519 $4,316 $3,196 $4,253 10 7 3 9 4 Commentary The rise of social media is changing philanthropy. Whether it has essentially "thrown a bucket of ice" on the traditional charitable fundraising model remains to be seen. Charities rely on the generosity of donors’ time and money. But the questions of how sensational fundraising tactics might impact donor preferences and whether this is an opportunity to reach new audiences should loom large for these organizations. The philanthropy indicator is composed of one measure: the total median contribution donated to charity. See Figure 9.1. The Shreveport-Bossier, LA MSA ranked 4th with a $4,253 median total donated to charity. The leading comparative community in this category, the Jackson, MS MSA, had a median contribution total of $4,674 and the lowest, the Lafayette, LA MSA, came in at $2,672.34 Navigating the world of social media could pose both serious challenges and enormous opportunities for fundraising. On the one hand, the impact of social media can drive donations, but there is a risk in not being able to convert this interest into long-term, sustainable support. There is also a risk of undermining an organization's credibility if there is a reliance on silly stunts. The Chronicle of Philanthropy, “How America Gives,” August 19, 2012 at http://philanthropy.com/section/How-America-Gives/621/. 34 35 Figure 9.1. Median Philanthropic Contribution by MSA Savannah $3,196 Montgomery $4,316 Mobile $3,519 Lafayette $2,672 Temple $3,306 Jackson $4,674 Huntsville $4,373 Columbus $3,855 Beaumont $3,790 $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 Source: The Chronicle of Philanthropy, “How America Gives,” August 19, 2012 at http://philanthropy.com/section/How-America-Gives/621/. 36 10. Employment and Workforce________________________ RANK 5th of 10 Unemployment Rate, November 2013 Data Overall Rank 9.1% 10 7.6% 9 4.8% 2 6.0% 4 6.6% 7 MSA Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX Columbus, GA-AL Huntsville, AL Jackson, MS Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX Lafayette, LA Mobile, AL Montgomery, AL Savannah, GA Shreveport-Bossier City, LA 4.2% 6.5% 5.8% 6.7% 6.1% 1 6 3 8 5 Commentary The Shreveport-Bossier City MSA never faced the same catastrophic effects of the economic downturn that pummeled many areas of the nation. The harmful effects to our area were, in part, offset by the area's then-thriving oil and gas industry. While the Shreveport-Bossier City MSA’s unemployment rate has continued to remain low compared to the national economy, many of its comparable communities are now recovering. In fact, every community saw its unemployment rate remain stable or decline between October 2012 and November 2013.35 See Figure 10.1. The employment and workforce indicator is comprised of one measure: the unemployment rate for November 2013. Despite falling 0.4 percent over the past year, the Shreveport-Bossier City, LA MSA unemployment rate of 6.1 percent ranks 5th in this year's report. Moving the Needle The Lafayette, LA MSA which remained at 4.2 percent in both last year's and this year's report retained its ranking as 1st in lowest unemployment. The Shreveport-Bossier City area dropped from 2nd to 5th despite showing a lower unemployment rate over last year. The reason that the area lost ground in this measure is due to the very dramatic improvement other areas are experiencing in their declining unemployment rates. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) at http://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/metro.htm. 35 37 Over the past decade, the Shreveport-Bossier City area’s annual unemployment rate has been as low as 3.9 percent in 2006 and as high as 7.0 percent in 2009 and 2010. 36 The area's annual unemployment rate is now at the same level as it was a decade ago. See Figure 10.2. Figure 10.1. Percent Unemployment by MSA, Oct. 2012 vs. Nov. 2013 6.1% 6.5% 6.7% Shreveport-Bossier City, LA Savannah, GA 7.9% 5.8% Montgomery, AL 8.0% 6.5% Mobile, AL 8.7% 4.2% 4.2% Lafayette, LA 6.6% 7.0% 6.0% 6.7% Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX Jackson, MS 4.8% Huntsville, AL Columbus, GA-AL 6.7% 7.6% Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% Nov. '13 8.0% 8.7% 9.1% 9.8% 10.0% 12.0% Oct. '12 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) at http://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/metro.htm. 36 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics custom search at http://www.bls.gov/data/#employment. 38 11. Income_______________________________________ RANK 6th of 10 MSA Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX Columbus, GA-AL Huntsville, AL Jackson, MS Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX Lafayette, LA Mobile, AL Montgomery, AL Savannah, GA Shreveport-Bossier City, LA Median Household Income for 2012 Data ($) Overall Rank 43,421 7 42,972 8 54,617 1 42,604 9 48,633 2 46,813 39,691 44,674 47,059 44,118 4 10 5 3 6 Commentary The income category is comprised of median household income for 2012 (See Figure 11.1). The Shreveport-Bossier City area’s median household income of $44,118 was higher than four of the comparative communities. Moving the Needle The Shreveport-Bossier City’s retained its 5th ranking from the prior year. The area's median income increased by about $500, which was a much smaller increase than the $3,000 increase between 2010 and 2011.37 The Huntsville, AL MSA, which held the top ranking in both last year's and this year's reports, saw an increase of almost $3,000. Three communities -- Jackson, MS; Mobile, AL; and Montgomery, AL -- experienced declines in their median household income for 2012. U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates at http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml. 37 39 Figure 11.1. Median Household Income by MSA, 2012 Shreveport-Bossier City, LA $44,118 Savannah, GA $47,059 Montgomery, AL Mobile, AL $44,674 $39,691 Lafayette, LA $46,813 Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX $48,633 Jackson, MS $42,604 Huntsville, AL $54,617 Columbus, GA-AL $42,972 Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX $43,421 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates at http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml. 40 12. Income Equality_________________________________ RANK 7 of 10 MSA Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX Columbus, GA-AL Huntsville, AL Jackson, MS Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX Lafayette, LA Mobile, AL Montgomery, AL Savannah, GA Shreveport-Bossier City, LA Data 0.4734 0.4751 0.4537 0.5039 0.4256 0.5035 0.4792 0.4598 0.4656 0.4758 Gini Index Overall Rank 5 6 2 10 1 9 8 3 4 7 Commentary The issue of income inequality has been the subject of recent media attention, as well as a central topic among economic policy analysts. The complex issues of what income inequality means, how it affects intergenerational mobility, and what to do about it deserve increased attention in the Shreveport-Bossier City MSA area. The income equality indicator is comprised of one measure: the Gini coefficient for 2012 (See Figure 12.1). The Gini coefficient is a measure of relative household income distribution across a community or region.38 A coefficient of zero corresponds to perfect household income equality, while a coefficient equal to one indicates totally inequitable income distribution. That means the smaller the Gini Coefficient, the more even the distribution of income. The Shreveport-Bossier City ranks 7th in the income inequality category with a coefficient of 0.4758, which is an improvement of both the area's 9th place ranking, as well as improved measure for 2012. The U.S. Census Bureau defines household income as “the sum of money income received in the calendar year by all household members 15 years old and over, including household members not related to the householder, people living alone, and other nonfamily household members. Included in the total are amounts reported separately for wage or salary income; net self-employment income; interest, dividends, or net rental or royalty income or income from estates and trusts; Social Security or Railroad Retirement income; Supplemental Security Income (SSI); public assistance or welfare payments; retirement, survivor, or disability pensions; and all other income.” http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/meta/long_IPE010208.htm 38 41 Moving the Needle The coefficient for the Shreveport-Bossier City MSA increased from 0.471 in 2006 to 0.4758 in 2012. See Figure 12.2. While the overall trend over this time period is in the direction of increasing inequality, the slight improvement between 2006 and 2012 might, if sustained, be an early indication of long-term improvement for this indicator. More investigation confirming this trend is needed, as well as research into the underlying reasons for slightly more equality -- increasing opportunity for all versus diminished opportunity for those is the upper echelons of the economy. Figure 12.1. Income Equality(as measured by the Gini coefficient) by MSA, 2012 Shreveport-Bossier City, LA 0.4758 Savannah, GA 0.4656 Montgomery, AL 0.4598 Mobile, AL 0.4792 Lafayette, LA 0.5035 Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX 0.4256 Jackson, MS 0.5039 Huntsville, AL 0.4537 Columbus, GA-AL 0.4751 Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX 0.4734 0.4 0.45 0.5 0.55 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates at http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml. 42 Figure 12.2. Income Equality(as measured by the Gini coefficient) for the Shreveport-Bossier City MSA, 2006 and 2012 0.48 0.4758 0.471 0.47 0.46 2006 2012 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates at http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml. 43 13.Credit Worthiness________________________________ RANK 8 of 9 (Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX not scored) Average Credit Score City Data Overall Rank Beaumont, TX 659 5 Columbus, GA 651 6 Huntsville, AL 673 1 Jackson, MS 644 9 Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, N/A N/A TX Lafayette, LA 662 3 Mobile, AL 666 2 Montgomery, AL 649 7 Savannah, GA 653 5 Shreveport, LA 648 8 Note: Credit worthiness data is not available for the Killeen-Temple-Ft. Hood, TX area. Commentary According to the annual Experian What is Your State of Credit?report, which examines the average credit scores of consumers in cities across the country, both Shreveport, LA and Jackson, MS remain among the ten cities with the lowest average credit score.39In fact, none of the comparable communities have average credit scores above the national average of 681 for 2013. See Figure 13.1. The credit worthinessindicator is comprised of one measure: the average Vantage credit score. Credit cards, auto loans, and personal loans/student loans are the types of credit and debt used to calculate the credit score. Recent academic research indicates that financial literacy plays a large role in economic inequality (and ultimately income mobility).40 This, as well as credit measures showing that all age groups in our area, with the exception of those ages 66+, consistently rank in the ten cities with the lowest credit scores,41may indicate the need for long-term financial literacy effortsfor both adults and students in our local area. Experian, “What is your State of Credit?” at http://www.experian.com/live-credit-smart/state-ofcredit-2013.html. 39 40Annamaria Lusardi, Pierre-Carl Michaud, Olivia S. Mitchell, “Optimal Financial Knowledge and Wealth Inequality,” NBER Working Paper No. 18669, January 2013 at http://papers.nber.org/papers/w18669?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntw. Experian at http://www.experian.com/assets/consumer-information/infographics/experian-state-ofcredit-2013.pdf. 41 44 Figure 13.1. Average Credit Score by City, 2013 Shreveport, LA 648 Savannah, GA 653 Montgomery, AL 649 Mobile, AL 666 Lafayette, LA 662 Jackson, MS 644 Huntsville, AL 673 Columbus, GA 651 Beaumont, TX 659 National average 681 580 620 660 700 Source: Experian, “What is your State of Credit?” at http://www.experian.com/livecredit-smart/state-of-credit-2013.html. 45 14. Productivity____________________________________ RANK 10 of 10 MSA Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX Columbus, GA-AL Huntsville, AL Jackson, MS Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX Lafayette, LA Mobile, AL Montgomery, AL Savannah, GA Shreveport-Bossier City, LA Compound Annual Growth Rate in Real GDP, 2002-2012 Data Rank 2.92% 3 1.51% 3.50% 1.39% 3.44% 6 1 8 2 2.13% 1.91% 0.67% 1.41% 0.17% 4 5 9 7 10 Commentary Gross Regional Product (the market value of all final goods and services produced in an area), also referred to as Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The productivity indicator is comprised of one measure: compound annual growth rate in real GDP for 2002 to 2012. According to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, real GDP for the ShreveportBossier City MSA grew at a compound annual growth rate of 0.17 percent during that time period.42 Huntsville, AL MSA (3.5 percent) and the Killeen-Temple-Ft. Hood, TX MSA (3.44 percent) had the strongest growth among the comparative communities. See Figure 14.1. Moving the Needle While the majority of the comparable communities saw a lower growth rate over the time period, the Shreveport-Bossier City area was the only community to drop its ranking more than one place since last year's report. The area was previously ranked 6th and has now dropped to 10th place, which is last. Unfortunately, the area's GDP for 2012 is below that of the previous two years of 2010 and 2011. See Figure 14.2. In fact, the level for 2012 has dropped back to its 2006, prerecession levels. Custom search at Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Data Tool, GDP & Personal Income at http://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?ReqID=70&step=1&isuri=1&acrdn=2. 42 46 Both the area's private sector growth, which makes up the vast majority of the area's economic activity, and the government's economic activity are now both on the decline. See Figure 14.3. Government GDP figures include federal civilian, federal military, and state & local activity. There should be no doubt that rapid decline in the area's mining industry (which includes oil and gas extraction) accounts for the area's dramatic reduction in private sector activity. Between 2011 and 2012, the area's mining activity lost almost 2.7 billion in economic activity -- a decline of more than half of the mining industry's total activity from 2011. The overall private sector activity declined by almost 2.5 billion. Figure 14.1. Compound Annual Growth Rate of Real GDP by MSA between 2002 and 2012 Shreveport-Bossier City, LA (MSA) 0.17% Savannah, GA (MSA) Montgomery, AL (MSA) 1.41% 0.67% Mobile, AL (MSA) 1.91% Lafayette, LA (MSA) 2.13% Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX (MSA) Jackson, MS (MSA) 3.44% 1.39% Huntsville, AL (MSA) Columbus, GA-AL (MSA) 3.50% 1.51% Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX (MSA) 0.00% 2.92% 2.00% 4.00% Source: Custom search at Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Data Tool, GDP & Personal Income at http://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?ReqID=70&step=1&isuri=1&acrdn=2. 47 15. Municipal Finance_______________________________ RANK No score assigned due to lack of data Commentary In the Fall of 2013, the City of Shreveport was featured in a national media story focusing on whether or not municipalities had recovered from the national recession. Of particular interest was how local governments were faring in terms of having a "cushion" for tough economic times. According to the Wall Street Journal article: "Of the 250 cities, more than half still have reserves below their 2007 levels. They also have taken on more debt: 114 cities saw overall debt loads increase from 2007 to 2012. The real-estate markets in 100 cities are still worse than they were in 2007, an acute problem for governments that rely on property taxes as a top source of revenue."43 In particular, the City of Shreveport was reported as having only ten days of cash on hand and ranked as the 10th-worst city in this category. While many local leaders across the country have taken the difficult steps to put their areas on solid financial footing, the Cities of Shreveport and Bossier seem to have more work to do. State law requires Louisiana municipalities to operate a balanced budget.44 When local government wants to spend more money than they will get in revenue, they issue bonds – a debt security to finance capital spending. Bond debt is repaid over time in the same that one would pay a mortgage or a credit card. Based on the cities’ General Funds, the City of Shreveport spends more per capita than the City of Bossier City. But when the entire Operating Budgets are considered, the City of Bossier City spends more per capita than the City of Shreveport.45 See Figure 15.1. To meet bond debt principal and interest payments, the City of Bossier City is spending the equivalent of 11.4 percent of its General Fund compared to the City of Shreveport which is spending 13.7 percent.46 See Figure 15.2. A debt service ratio of under 10 percent is generally considered to be acceptable. Both the City of Bossier and the City of Shreveport are spending more than 10 percent to Jeannette Neumann, "U.S. Cities Grapple with Finances," Wall Street Journal, October 27, 2013 at http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304799404579157780077670894. 43 Louisiana Legislative Auditor, “Local Government Budget Act FAQ,” July 28, 2008 at http://www.lla.state.la.us/userfiles/file/LGBA.pdf. 44 U.S. Census Bureau, QuickFacts at http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/22000.html, City of Bossier City, 2014 Operating Budget, p. 1 at http://www.bossiercity.org/files/2014%20Budget%20%20Operating.pdf and City of Shreveport, 2014 Annual Operating Budget, p. 19 at http://lashreveport.civicplus.com/ArchiveCenter/ViewFile/Item/1138. 45 46 City of Bossier City, p. 57 and City of Shreveport, pp. 19 and 32. 48 service their bond debts. Not only do fiscally responsible governments attract businesses and new residents through lower taxes, these measures will help to keep these counties’ borrowing costs low and limit the amount of belt-tightening should another economic shock occur. City and community leaders should develop strategic and long-term fiscal plans to contend with the area’s troubling household income realities, as well as the realities of the industries upon which the local economy relies. Figure 15.1. Per Capita Local Municipal Government Spending per Resident by General Fund and Total Operating Budget $4,000.00 $3,090.98 $3,000.00 $2,304.55 $2,000.00 $1,059.11 $1,000.00 $727.77 $General Fund Bossier City Operating Budget Shreveport Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates at http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml, City of Bossier City, 2014 Operating Budget, p. 1 at http://www.bossiercity.org/files/2014%20Budget%20%20Operating.pdf and City of Shreveport, 2014 Annual Operating Budget, p. 19 at http://lashreveport.civicplus.com/ArchiveCenter/ViewFile/Item/1138. 49 Figure 15.2. Total Debt Service Payments as a Percent of General Fund 15.0% 13.7% 11.4% 10.0% Bossier City Shreveport Note: These calculations do not include public pension liabilities. Sources: City of Bossier City, 2014 Operating Budget, p. 57 at http://www.bossiercity.org/files/2014%20Budget%20-%20Operating.pdf and City of Shreveport, 2014 Annual Operating Budget, pp. 19 and 32 at http://lashreveport.civicplus.com/ArchiveCenter/ViewFile/Item/1138. 50 16. Early Childhood_________________________________ RANK 4th of 10 MSA Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX Columbus, GA-AL Huntsville, AL Jackson, MS Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX Lafayette, LA Mobile, AL Montgomery, AL Savannah, GA Shreveport-Bossier City, LA Percent enrolled in early childhood education Data Overall Rank 40.5 9 55.3 1 30.8 10 53.9 3 45.2 8 46.7 49.9 54.9 48.6 52.8 7 5 2 6 4 Commentary Arriving in kindergarten with letter-recognition and counting abilities are important in a child’s long-term success. Children who arrive in kindergarten without these skills could face an increased risk of not catching up or, in the worst case, falling even further behind their peers in school. While many children arrive in kindergarten ready to learn as a result of a parent or loved-one's close attention at a young age, the ShreveportBossier City, LA area has a large proportion of students who, in recent years, have not been arriving ready to learn. While enrollment in an early childhood program does not provide a guarantee for kindergarten readiness, and many children who do arrive kindergarten ready may not have attended a pre-K program, there are strong indicators that these programs do increase the likelihood of kindergarten readiness. The education indicator is comprised of one measure: percent children enrolled in early childhood education. The Shreveport-Bossier City area is 4th among its peer communities with 52.8 percent of the area's 3- and 4-year-olds enrolled in a formal, preK program.47 Public and private programs are included in this measure. The Columbus, GA-AL community leads this indicator with a 55.3 percent enrollment and the Huntsville, AL community is last with a 30.8 percent enrollment. See Figure 16-1. A closer look at the Shreveport-Bossier City, LA area's public school reveals rapid U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates at http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml. 47 51 progress being made in kindergarten readiness among its three school systems. See Figure 16-2. Figure 16.1. Percent 3- and 4-Year-Olds Enrolled in Pre-K Program by MSA, 2012 Shreveport-Bossier City, LA 52.8 Savannah, GA 48.6 Montgomery, AL 54.9 Mobile, AL 49.9 Lafayette, LA 46.7 Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX 45.2 Jackson, MS 53.9 Huntsville, AL 30.8 Columbus, GA-AL 55.3 Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX 40.5 0 20 40 60 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates at http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml. Figure 16.2. Percent Kindergarten Students Arriving Kindergarten Ready by Parish, 2008 and 2012 60.0 56.0 55.0 52.6 51.0 50.0 48.0 45.0 40.0 37.3 38.5 35.0 30.0 Bossier 2008Bossier 2012 Caddo 2008 Caddo 2012 DeSoto 2008DeSoto 2012 Source: Louisiana Department of Education at http://www.kidsdashboard.la.gov/?fuseAction=viewKPI&cat=Education&idx=1. 52 17. K-12 Education_________________________________ RANK 8th of 10 MSA Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX Columbus, GA-AL Huntsville, AL Jackson, MS Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX Lafayette, LA Mobile, AL Montgomery, AL Savannah, GA Shreveport-Bossier City, LA Less than High School Graduate or Equivalency, Ages 18 to 24 Data Overall Rank 23.9 9 14.7 4 13.9 3 16.2 6 12.4 1 15.9 24.3 20.2 12.6 21.6 5 10 7 2 8 Commentary The education indicator is comprised of one measure: educational attainment for the age 18 to 24 year-old population. The Shreveport-Bossier City area is fifth (8th) among its peer communities with just over one in five, or 21.6 percent, of its 18 to 24 year-old population having less than a high school diploma or equivalency.48 See Figure 17.1. That is compared to the Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood area which is first among the peer communities with 12.4 percent, or just over one in ten, lacking a high school diploma or equivalency. Moving the Needle Six of the ten communities improved in this metric over last year's report. Unfortunately, the Shreveport-Bossier City, LA MSA lost ground on both the percent of young adults with a high school diploma or equivalency and its rank. The area dropped from 5th place at 18.5 percent in last year's report to 8th at 21.6 in this year's report. The cohort graduation rate, which measures the percent of students who started 9th grade and graduated four years later, is almost 68 percent for the Shreveport-Bossier U.S. Census Bureau, 2011 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates at http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml.General Education Development (GED) holders are categorized as "High School Graduate or Equivalent” by the Census Bureau. 48 53 City, LA area. But the progress in this area has been mixed the past several years.49 See Figure 17.2. Both Caddo and De Soto Parishes have seen dramatic improvements in their cohort graduation rates since 2008 while Bossier Parish has seen a small decline. The National Dropout Prevention Center / Network at Clemson University’s success strategies that are proven to have reduced dropout rates across the country should be aggressively pursued.50The programs fall into four strategic categories: School and Community Perspective, Early Interventions, Basic Core Strategies, and Making the Most of Instruction. The Shreveport-Bossier City, LA area is already dealing with the long-term repercussions of an educational system that fails to keep pace with the demands of a global economy, much less fails to provide the basic skills for language and math. The importance of educational attainment to a community’s economic and social well-being cannot be overstated. Figure 17.1. Less Than High School Graduate or Equivalency, Age 18 to 24 Years by MSA, 2012 Shreveport-Bossier City, LA Savannah, GA 21.6% 12.6% Montgomery, AL 20.2% Mobile, AL 24.3% Lafayette, LA Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX Jackson, MS Huntsville, AL Columbus, GA-AL 15.9% 12.4% 16.2% 13.9% 14.7% Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX 10.0% 23.9% 20.0% 30.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates at http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml. 49Louisiana Department of Education at http://www.kidsdashboard.la.gov/?fuseAction=viewKPI&cat=Education&idx=3. Comprehensive information on each strategy is available at the National Dropout Prevention Center / Network website at http://www.dropoutprevention.org/modelprograms/program-strategies. The Center serves as a national clearinghouse for research and professional development. 50 54 Figure 17.2. Cohort Graduation Rate by Parish, 2008 and 2012 80 77.6 77 74.4 68.7 70 63.4 60 59.1 50 Bossier 2008 Bossier 2012 Caddo 2008 Caddo 2012 DeSoto 2008 DeSoto 2012 Source: Louisiana Department of Education at http://www.kidsdashboard.la.gov/?fuseAction=viewKPI&cat=Education&idx=3. According to the LDOE, “The Cohort Graduation Rate is the percentage of a school’s graduation cohort that obtained a regular high school diploma. Each cohort of students is tracked for four years, from entry as first-time 9th grade students through the 12th grade. It is of particular note that students that do not graduate may: 1) still attend school; 2) drop out of school; or 3) complete school—those students that obtain something other than a regular High School diploma; i.e., Certificate of Achievement (special education), GED.” The 2010-11 rate is a preliminary estimate. 55 18. Higher Education________________________________ RANK 6th of 10 MSA Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX Columbus, GA-AL Huntsville, AL Jackson, MS Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX Lafayette, LA Mobile, AL Montgomery, AL Savannah, GA Shreveport-Bossier City, LA Bachelor’s Degree or Higher, Ages 25+ Data Overall Rank 17.2% 10 21.9% 7 36.9% 1 30.2% 2 20.9% 9 24.4% 21.5% 26.8% 29.2% 23.4% 5 8 4 3 6 Commentary The "Starbucks Effect" is widely known in business circles as the firm's impact on innovation in the coffee industry, as well as the overall cache of coffee as a product.51 Soon, the Starbucks Effect may also have a similar effect on higher education. According to a recent report in The Chronicle of Higher Education: "Starbucks is teaming up with Arizona State University on an exclusive program that could send thousands of its baristas, store managers, and other employees to ASU Online for their undergraduate degrees, with the coffee company picking up about three-quarters of the tuition tab. "The unusual program, the Starbucks College Achievement Plan, will be available to more than 100,000 of its employees. The partnership, which could cost Starbucks hundreds of millions of dollars a year, is likely to add luster to the company’s reputation for corporate social responsibility. It could also be a welcome enrollment jolt to ASU Online, which has about 10,000 distance-education students and aspires to enroll 10 times that many."52 Vijay Vishwanath and David Harding, "The Starbucks Effect," Harvard Business Review Magazine, March 2000 at http://hbr.org/2000/03/the-starbucks-effect/ar/1. 51 Goldie Blumenstyk, " Starbucks Will Send Thousands of Employees to Arizona State for Degrees, The Chronicle of Higher Education, June 14, 2014 at http://chronicle.com/article/Starbucks-Will-SendThousands/147151/. 52 56 The Starbucks announcement will only serve to propel the current seismic shift in higher education that is already well-underway. The intersection of technology and high costs of college has paved the way for a new model of higher education. The higher education indicator is comprised of one measure: Percent Bachelor’s degree or higher for the age 25 and older population. The Shreveport-Bossier City area ranks 6th in this category with 23.4 percent of the area population holding a Bachelor’s degree or higher, which is virtually unchanged from last year's measure. See Figure 18.1. While this revolution in higher education is still in its infancy, the challenge for local leaders in higher education will be to insure that our institutions of higher education will have the flexibility and capacity to respond to the changing higher education landscape. In order to make college more affordable, the state of Texas is focusing its public higher education efforts on reducing tuition. In Texas, the Affordable Baccalaureate Degree Program is currently limited to a handful of programs at ten schools, but a student with no prior work or higher education experience can expect to compete the degree in three years at a total cost of up to $15,000.53 For students with work experience or college credit, the program could be completed in as little one year for a cost of as little as $4,500.54 There should be no doubt that higher education has already changed. Initiatives aimed at making tuition more affordable, as well as demonstrating a high rate of job placement after graduation, will be essential in any long-term strategy that aims to attract and retain students. Katrina Trinko, “The $10,000 Degree,” National Review Online, December 13, 2012 at http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/335522/10000-degree-katrina-trinko. 53 Office of the Governor of Texas Rick Perry, "ICYMI: Texas Affordable Degree Program Launched," Press Release, February 5, 2014 at http://governor.state.tx.us/news/press-release/19375/. 54 57 Figure 18.1. Percent Population Age 25 and Older Holding a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher by MSA, 2012 Shreveport-Bossier City, LA 23.4% Savannah, GA 29.2% Montgomery, AL 26.8% Mobile, AL 21.5% Lafayette, LA 24.4% Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX 20.9% Jackson, MS 30.2% Huntsville, AL 36.9% Columbus, GA-AL Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX 10.0% 21.9% 17.2% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates at http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml. 58 19. Workforce Training______________________________ RANK 9th of 10 MSA Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX Columbus, GA-AL Huntsville, AL Jackson, MS Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX Lafayette, LA Mobile, AL Montgomery, AL Savannah, GA Shreveport-Bossier City, LA Data 6.7 8.5 6.8 7.8 10.1 Overall Rank 8 2 7 3 1 5.0 7.5 7.4 7.6 6.5 10 5 6 4 9 Commentary About one-third of our area's young adults, ages 18 to 24, is enrolled in college or graduate school. But only 6.5 percent of our area's adult population age 25 and over has actually completed a two-year Associates degree. While this number does not capture the entire spectrum of workforce training across comparable communities, it does provide a proxy measure for workforce training. The workforce training indicator is comprised of one measure: Percent Associates degree for the age 25 and older population. The Shreveport-Bossier City, LA area ranks 9th and only leads the Lafayette, LA area where five percent of its population holds an Associate's degree. That is compared to the leading communities of Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood at 10.1 percent and Columbus, GA-AL at 8.5 percent. 59 Figure 19.1. Percent Population Age 25 and Older Holding an Associate's Degree by MSA, 2012 Shreveport-Bossier City, LA 6.5 Savannah, GA 7.6 Montgomery, AL 7.4 Mobile, AL 7.5 Lafayette, LA 5 Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX 10.1 Jackson, MS 7.8 Huntsville, AL 6.8 Columbus, GA-AL 8.5 Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX 6.7 4 8 12 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates at http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml 60 20. Innovation ____________________________________ RANK 5 of 10 Innovation Index Score Data Overall Rank 80.2 8 85.3 2 98.8 1 82.4 3 81.5 6 MSA Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX Columbus, GA-AL Huntsville, AL Jackson, MS Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX Lafayette, LA Mobile, AL Montgomery, AL Savannah, GA Shreveport-Bossier City, LA 79.5 81.3 81.8 79.8 81.6 10 7 4 9 5 Commentary Large urban centers, such as Boston and New York, are often recognized as centers of innovation, but innovations are constantly taking place outside these areas. While some in our community aspire to be the next Austin, whose metro area has a population about five times that of ours, perhaps a better goal would be to nurture and strengthen the factors that lay the groundwork for achieving such an ambitious goal. The path to successfully nurturing innovation in a smaller community depends, in large part, to aligning the community's resources, talents, and capacity with a realistic implementation plan. According to the Thriving Places project: "Decision-makers may pursue short-term approaches that are less realistic or not viable over the longer term. For example, a town may declare their goal to be a regional or national leader for aerospace or technology or a hub for artisans and creative [class]. While little is inherently wrong with any of these aims, the objectives must be based on existing assets and industry clusters to some extent and must include a plan and the capacity to implement the plan."55 Shreveport's own Moonbot Studies demonstrates an outstanding example of how a smaller city can effectively achieve a large-scale goal.56 It may also point to a question of Scott Tate, "Innovation and Small Towns," Thriving Places Project, April 25, 2014 at http://thrivingplacesproject.com/2014/04/25/innovation-and-small-towns/. 55 Louisiana Economic Development case study of Moonbot Studios at http://opportunitylouisiana.com/page/moonbot-studios. 56 61 whether these goals should be pursued organically rather than through top-down government planning. In other words, should a community's focus be based on a particular goal to lure a specific number of tech jobs to the area, for example, or to create a an environment that fosters innovation? The innovation indicator is comprised of one measure: the U.S. Economic Development Administration Innovation Index score.57 The index measures seventeen inputs (“innovation capacity”) in four categories. Inputs (innovation capacity) are divided into two categories: Human capital and economic dynamics. Each of these categories accounts for 30 percent of the index score. Outputs (results) account for 40 percent of the index score: Productivity & Employment (30 percent) and Economic Well-Being (10 percent).58 See Table 20.1. A score of 100 reflects the national average. The Shreveport-Bossier area ranked fifth among its comparative communities. See Figure 20.1. While none of the comparable communities scored above the national average, the Huntsville, AL MSA is very close with a score of 98.8 and was 13.5 points higher than the second-highest community of Columbus, GA-AL. Table 20.1. Innovation Index Variables Human Capital Educational Attainment (tertiary degrees) Population Growth Rate Occupational Mix High-Tech Employment Economic Dynamics Venture Capital Investment Broadband Density Churn (rate of firm entry and failure) Business Sizes Productivity and Employment High-Tech Employment Share Growth Job Growth-to-Population Growth Ratio Patent Activity Gross Domestic Product Economic Well-Being 30 percent 30 percent 30 percent 10 percent Custom search of U.S. Economic Development Administration, Innovation Index at http://www.statsamerica.org/innovation/innovation_index/region-select.html. 57 U.S. Economic Development Administration, Innovation Index Methodology at http://www.statsamerica.org/innovation/innovation_index/methodology.html. 58 62 Average Poverty Rate Average Unemployment Rate Net Migration Compensation Growth in Per Capita Personal Income A closer look at our area’s score reveals that, while our area is strong in the economic well-being category (which is the lowest weighted category for scoring purposes) and scores above the national average of 100, we have a lot of work to continue to do in the human capital, economic dynamics, and productivity & employment areas which all fall well-below the national average. See Figures 20.1 and 20.2. A community that is poised to flourish in the “innovation economy” is far more likely to attract and retain talent, develop new products, and contribute to new business formation and growth. Figure 20.1. Innovation Index Score by MSA Shreveport-Bossier City, LA 81.6 Savannah, GA 79.8 Montgomery, AL 81.8 Mobile, AL 81.3 Lafayette, LA 79.5 Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX 81.5 Jackson, MS 82.4 Huntsville, AL 98.8 Columbus, GA-AL 85.3 Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX 80.2 60 80 100 120 Source: Custom search of U.S. Economic Development Administration, Innovation Index at http://www.statsamerica.org/innovation/innovation_index/region-select.html. 63 Figure 20.2. Innovation Index Score by Parish 90 83.6 80.7 80 73.7 70 Bossier Parish Caddo Parish DeSoto Parish Source: Custom search of U.S. Economic Development Administration, Innovation Index at http://www.statsamerica.org/innovation/innovation_index/region-select.html. 64 21. Internet and Computer Literacy_____________________ RANK 10 of 10 MSA Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX Columbus, GA-AL Huntsville, AL Jackson, MS Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX Lafayette, LA Mobile, AL Montgomery, AL Savannah, GA Shreveport-Bossier City, LA Percent Population with HighSpeed Internet Data Rank 86.9 8 91.9 87.8 88.6 86.2 4 7 5 9 94.8 92.6 88.4 93.5 85.2 1 3 6 2 10 Commentary The proportion of internet users has been steadily increasing over time. As recently as 1995, only 14 percent of adults used the internet with 86 percent of the population as non-users. Those statistics have now flipped.59 According to a data from the Pew Research Internet Project, only 14 percent of adults today do not use the internet.60 The Internet is rapidly changing the way we consume information, access entertainment, and engage with others. There is little doubt that, for most of us, access to online information will play an ever-increasingly important life in education, civic participation, and gains in workforce productivity. Referred to as the “digital divide” – the gap between those who have and do not have access to the internet – is closely tied to economic and educational status. Users are more likely to have higher incomes, are more urban, have more education, have higher incomes, and be younger. The internet connectivity indicator is based on one component – the percent of households using high-speed internet services.61 The Shreveport-Bossier City, LA MSA Pew Research Internet Project, Internet Use over Time at http://www.pewinternet.org/datatrend/internet-use/internet-use-over-time/. 59 Pew Research Internet Project, Offline Adults at http://www.pewinternet.org/data-trend/internetuse/offline-adults/. 60 High speed is defined as more than 3mbps DL and more than 768 kbps UL as reported by the National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA) and the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), National Broadband Map at http://www.broadbandmap.gov/analyze. 61 65 is last among its comparable communities. In an effort to lure new business, the leading comparable community of Lafayette, LA laid more than 800 miles of fiber optic cable to provide public high-speed internet. The project is publicly-financed and it estimate to cost the city $125 million.62 While this endeavor has garnered national media attention and enthusiasm among some in the technology field, the impact of this endeavor on both jobs and the digital divide remains to be seen. Figure 21.1. Percent Population with High-Speed Internet Connectivity by MSA in 2012 Shreveport-Bossier City, LA 85.2 Savannah, GA 93.5 Montgomery, AL 88.4 Mobile, AL 92.6 Lafayette, LA 94.8 Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX 86.2 Jackson, MS 88.6 Huntsville, AL 87.8 Columbus, GA-AL 91.9 Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX 86.9 60 80 100 Note: High-speed is reported as more than 3mbps DL and more than 768 kbps UL. Source: National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA) and the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), National Broadband Map at http://www.broadbandmap.gov/analyze. Rick Jervis, "Louisiana city blazes high-tech Web trail," USA Today, Feb. 5, 2012 at http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/nation/story/2012-02-01/broadband-telecomlafayette/52920278/1. 62 66 22. Air and Water__________________________________ RANK No score assigned due to lack of data across MSAs Commentary A lack of consistent data across the MSAs makes it difficult to provide reasonable comparisons for both air and water quality. In fact, the data is so sparse for the Shreveport-Bossier City MSA that this indicator is largely subjective in nature. The EPA tracks six air pollutants but is currently only providing data for one in our area. Ozone (O3), which can be highly variable based on weather, has generally declined over the past decade in the Shreveport-Bossier City MSA area. See Figure 22.1. Nationally, ozone declined by 14 percent between 1990 and 2012. Our area's reduction was 24 percent, far exceeding the national average. See Figure 22.2. While there is no national standard measurement for water quality data, polling data does shed some light on perceived water quality. Gallup polling data, which is available for seven of the ten comparable communities, asks: In the city or area where you live, is it easy or not easy to get clean and safe water? While the percent of "easy" responses ranged from a low of 90 percent in the Jackson, MS MSA to a high of 97 percent in the Montgomery, AL MSA, the Shreveport-Bossier City MSA came in at 95 percent. Four percent in our area responded that it was "not easy" to get clean and safe water. See Figure 22.3. Figure 22.1. Air Pollution by Ozone in the Shreveport-Bossier City MSA, 2000-2012 (with trend line) 0.1 0.093 0.09 0.086 0.084 0.08 0.082 0.082 0.08 0.077 0.076 0.07 0.079 0.074 0.071 0.07 0.066 0.06 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Note: Units for ozone are parts per million (ppm). Source: Author’s calculations based on United States Environmental Protection Agency, Air Trends - Ozone at http://www.epa.gov/airtrends/ozone.html. 67 Figure 22.2. Air Quality Percent Improvement (Ozone) for the U.S. and the Shreveport-Bossier MSA, 2000-2012 30% 24% 20% 14% 10% 0% Shreveport-Bossier City MSA National Average Note: The Shreveport-Bossier MSA had a 24 percent reduction in ozone air pollution, while the nation had an average 14 percent reduction over the same time period. Source: Author’s calculations based on United States Environmental Protection Agency, Air Trends - Ozone at http://www.epa.gov/airtrends/ozone.html. Figure 22.3. Easy or Not Easy to Get Clean and Safe Water by MSA in 2012 Shreveport-Bossier City, LA 4% Savannah, GA 5% 95% 95% 2% Montgomery, AL 97% Mobile, AL 4% Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX 4% 96% 95% 10% Jackson, MS 90% 7% Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX 0% 20% 93% 40% Not easy 60% 80% 100% Easy Source: Custom search of Gallup Analytics at https://analytics.gallup.com. 68 23. Cost of Living___________________________________ RANK 8 of 9 (Columbus, GA not scored) Average cost of Living Index MSA Data Rank Beaumont $50,373 7 Huntsville $49,962 5 Jackson $47,404 2 Temple $46,632 1 Lafayette $51,145 9 Mobile $48,747 3 Montgomery $50,596 8 Savannah $48,944 4 Shreveport $50,000 6 Note: Cost of living data is not available for the Columbus, GA-AL MSA. It will not be scored in this indicator. Commentary The cost of living indicator is the relative cost of maintaining the same standard of living in another area. The cost of living index measures differences in prices among the comparative communities at a single point in time.63 The composite index is based on six components – housing, utilities, grocery items, transportation, health care and miscellaneous goods and services and comparable communities are measured in relative comparison to the Shreveport area. Shreveport ranked sixth in overall affordability. Lafayette (which is the only other comparative community in Louisiana) retained its spot as the highest cost of living among the group. See Figure 23.1. 63 The Council for Community and Economic Research at http://coli.org/Method.asp. 69 24. Civic Involvement_______________________________ RANK No score assigned due to lack of data across MSAs Commentary The level of voter participation can be an important measure for determining the level of civic involvement in a community. Unfortunately, voter participation often wanes in elections that are not electing a president or Member of Congress. See Figure 24.1. But it is these local elections and "off-year" races that can, ultimately, have the greatest impact on a citizens day-to-day life. Fewer than ten percent of registered voters in Bossier, Caddo, and DeSoto Parishes voted in the October 2013 election. While a more engaged community is desirable, there is evidence indicating that the community, overall, is generally satisfied. Gallup polling data, which is available for seven of the ten comparable communities, asks: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the city or area where you live? In the Shreveport-Bossier City MSA, 82 percent of respondents reported that they felt satisfied with the area. See Figure 24.2. The Savannah, GA MSA led with 89 percent of respondents reporting satisfaction. The Beaumont-Port Arthur MSA had the lowest reported satisfaction at 75 percent. Figure 24.1. Percent of Registered Voters by Parish Casting a Ballot, November 2012 vs. October 2013 80.0% 72.6% 68.1% 66.3% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 9.6% 6.3% 5.8% 0.0% Bossier Parish Caddo Parish November 2012 DeSoto Parish October 2013 Source: Louisiana Secretary of State, Election Results and Registration Statistics at http://www.sos.la.gov/ElectionsAndVoting/GetElectionInformation/FindResultsAndStatistics/Pa ges/default.aspx. 70 Figure 24.2. Satisfied with Area by MSA, 2012 Shreveport-Bossier City, LA 82% Savannah, GA 89% Montgomery, AL 83% Mobile, AL 80% Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX 83% Jackson, MS 77% Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX 75% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% Source: Custom search of Gallup Analytics at https://analytics.gallup.com. 71 95% 25. Crime________________________________________ RANK No score assigned due to lack of data across MSAs City Beaumont Columbus Huntsville Jackson Killeen Lafayette Mobile Montgomery Savannah Shreveport City Crime Rate Rankings Score National Rank Rank (of 437) 124.71 386 9 56.42 310 4 88.43 355 7 272.88 427 10 63.08 318 5 34.00 265 2 47.94 291 3 107.48 372 8 26.29 253 1 70.37 328 6 Commentary It is disappointing that the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) consistently excludes the City of Bossier City from its national crime statistics. The bureau asserts that the city's data were underreported. While the crime data for every other one of our area's comparative communities is consistently available, the crime data for Bossier City is routinely excluded. Since crime data is not available for the Shreveport-Bossier City, LA MSA, this year's report examines crime statistics from each comparative community's largest city. The crime indicator is composed of one measure: the City Crime Rate Rankings.64 See Figure 25.1. A score of zero means that the crime level is equivalent to the national score. A score above zero is a crime level above the national level. A score below zero is a crime level below the national level. The composite score is based on six components – murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, and motor vehicle theft. Shreveport scored 70.37 and ranked 6th among the ten comparable communities.65 It is interesting to note that all ten comparable communities had scores above the national average of zero. Shreveport's score placed it #328 among the 437 cities. The community with the lowest crime rate was Savannah, GA which came in at #253. The highest crime was Jackson, MS which came in at #427, just ten spots above the city ranked as least safe, Camden, NJ, at #437. Kathleen O'Leary Morgan, Scott Morgan and Dr. Rachel Boba, eds. City Crime Rankings 2014 (Washington, D.C.: CQ Press, 2014) at http://os.cqpress.com/citycrime/2013/2014_CityCrimeRankings(LowtoHigh).pdf. 64 65 Ibid. 72 While crime statistics sheds light on the crime level, it does not reveal how safe people in the community actually feel. Gallup polling data, which is available for seven of the ten comparable communities, asks: Do you feel safe walking alone at night in the city or area where you live? In the Shreveport-Bossier City MSA, 64 percent of respondents reported that they did feel safe walking alone at night. See Figure 25.2. Figure 25.1. 2013 Crime Rate Rankings by City Shreveport 70.37 Savannah 26.29 Montgomery 107.48 Mobile 47.94 Lafayette 34 Killeen 63.08 Jackson 272.88 Huntsville 88.43 Columbus 56.42 Beaumont 124.71 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Source: Kathleen O'Leary Morgan, Scott Morgan and Dr. Rachel Boba, eds. City Crime Rankings 2014 (Washington, D.C.: CQ Press, 2014) at http://os.cqpress.com/citycrime/2013/2014_CityCrimeRankings(LowtoHigh).pdf. Figure 25.2. Safe Walking Alone, 2012 36% Shreveport-Bossier City, LA 64% 30% Savannah, GA 69% 38% Montgomery, AL 61% 48% 51% Mobile, AL 34% Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX 65% 39% Jackson, MS 41% Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX 0% 20% 40% No 60% 58% 60% Yes Source: Custom search of Gallup Analytics at https://analytics.gallup.com. 73 80% Conclusions______________________________________ RANK 8th of 10 The Shreveport-Bossier City area ranks 8th among the ten peer communities, ahead of only the Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX and Mobile, AL Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA). Of the twenty indicators that are scored in this report (25 total), the ShreveportBossier City area scored in the top-half (a rank of one to five) in only six instances and placed as high as 3rd only once. The Shreveport-Bossier City area has enormous potential to be a regional economic and cultural powerhouse – providing many of the opportunities and benefits of a large city within the confines of a more-manageable small city. But this potential will never be realized if a large segment of the population is unable to benefit from educational and economic opportunities. In 1982, researchers from The Johns Hopkins University began studying 790 of Baltimore's public school first-grade children. Karl Alexander and Doris Entwisle followed the children for twenty-five years. What they found was startling. Fewer than half graduated high school on time, only four percent of "urban disadvantaged" completed college, ten percent of the black men -- about age 28 at the conclusion of the study -- were incarcerated, and only 33 of 314 low-income students had moved beyond the socioeconomic rung of their parents'.66 One is left wondering how the children in Shreveport-Bossier City MSA who were in first grade in 1982 are now faring. And without any additional commitment and action, what will become of today's area first graders? The cornerstone of the regional economy and area’s social wellbeing will be determined by the ability of the public school systems in the region to academically prepare students to attend college or enter the workforce, experiencing the joy that comes from learning. Every day that these goals are not achieved, opportunities for the community and those children are lost. Emily Badger, "What your 1st-grade life says about the rest of it," Washington Post, August 29, 2014 at http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/08/29/what-your-1st-grade-life-says-aboutthe-rest-ofit/?utm_content=buffer64d29&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffe r. 66 74
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