On a methodology to extract measures of seasonality from MERIS reduced resolution data to characterise seasonal trends in Irish vegetation Brian O’ Connor1, Ned Dwyer1 and Fiona Cawkwell2 1 Coastal & Marine Resources Centre (CMRC), Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork, Ireland Email: [email protected] 2 Department of Geography, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland Summary Information extracted from satellite data may offer a complementary approach to groundbased methods of monitoring vegetation seasonality (phenology) in Ireland which is currently limited to a few locations across the country. For this study, ten-day composites from 2003 to 2008 of the Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR), derived from reduced resolution MERIS Global Vegetation Index (MGVI) data, are used to study spatio-temporal seasonality trends across the island. Initial work has focused on deriving the start of growing season (SOS) for ten vegetation classes, representing both natural and cultivated systems, derived from CORINE 2000 landcover data. The time-series, curve fitting software, TIMESAT, was used to automatically extract SOS dates for each pixel in each growing season according to cover type. Applying a fitting function to the MGVI time series produced a noise-reduced model curve from which seasonality metrics were derived. A double logistic fit proved the most stable across a number of test pixels of different landcover types. While no latitudinal or longitudinal gradient is evident from the resulting six-year mean SOS image, landcover type would appear to be a highly significant factor in determining SOS although its occurrence is later at higher elevations regardless of landcover. 1 Introduction Current methods of phenological observation in Ireland are entirely ground-based, at four International Phenological Garden (IPG) sites, where a number of tree species of common genetic stock are maintained (Donnelly et al., 2004). However, broad-scale phenological monitoring is only possible using remote sensing technology. Both approaches are complementary and therefore can be combined for an integrated approach to phenological monitoring in Ireland. The work is based on a growing body of research employing remote sensing methods for phenological research in the last few decades (Zhang et al., 2001, Reed and Brown, 2005, Verstraete et al., 2008). Results suggest a greening trend for terrestrial vegetation in certain parts of Western Europe, attributed to earlier spring warming in line with global climate change (Xiao and Moody, 2005). In Ireland, there is evidence from phenological gardens that leaf unfolding now occurs 5 to 8 days earlier than in 1970 leading to an extension in the growing season (Sweeney et al., 2002). For this study, a time series of the MERIS MGVI (FAPAR) product has been selected. In a similar phenological study by Verstraete et al. (2008), seasonality metrics were consistently derived from a time series of SeaWiFS-derived FAPAR. The reduced resolution (RR) MERIS FAPAR product (1.2 km) was chosen for this study as it satisfied both requirements of being a readily available, continuously processed, multiannual time series and at an appropriate spatial resolution for a national scale study. RSPSoc 2009, 8-11th September 2009, Leicester, UK Page In order to derive metrics from the MGVI time series that are linked to key phenological events, a model fitting method was used. Model fits allow a per-pixel derivation of the phenological metrics in a consistent, systematic way which can then be automatically applied across a grid of pixels. Jönsson and Eklundh’s double logistic and asymmetric Gaussian function-fitting techniques were selected due to their improved performance over other modelling techniques (Hird and McDermid, 2008). 2 Aims and Objectives 2.1 Study Objective The objective of this study is to refine a methodology, using seasonality metrics derived from a time series of reduced resolution MERIS FAPAR data, to characterise seasonal events, such as the start of growing season, for a variety of vegetation cover types, based on CORINE 2000 landcover data, across the island of Ireland. 2.2 Study Aims In order to reach this objective the study has a number of aims: For the monitoring of island-wide spatio-temporal seasonality trends, daily data over Ireland must be time-composited over a number of days to attain cloud-free imagery of the whole island. An aim of this study was to find an appropriate composite period. The most appropriate model fitting function to derive seasonality metrics from MGVI time series was explored. The relation of landcover to any spatio-temporal trends in seasonality was examined. A method of verification of the derived metric, using the known seasonality of certain species of trees and plants, was carried out using existing ground data. 3 Methodology 3.1 The generation of a continuous time series of time- composited FAPAR data The MERIS FAPAR was time-composited with the FAPAR time composite algorithm (Pinty et al, 2002) in a geographical window over Ireland using the European Space Research Institute’s (ESRIN) Grid Processing-on-Demand (G-POD) service for the period May, 2002, to June, 2009. 3.2 The selection of an appropriate composite period Fieldwork was carried out during the spring months of 2008 and 2009 with the dual purpose of noting the date of occurrence of key phenological events and tracking the rate of greening in the vegetation canopy. This helped to guide what an appropriate minimum compositing period would be to be concurrent with the greening rate. However, to account for daily cloud cover, an analysis of daily visual cloud observations, from the Armagh Meteorological Observatory, was conducted. 3.3 Deriving appropriate seasonality metrics from the FAPAR time series TIMESAT (Jönsson and Eklundh, 2002) was used to compute seasonality metrics from the smoothed time series. TIMESAT uses least-squares fitting methods to construct local model fits around maxima and minima in the time series curve before merging the local fits into a RSPSoc 2009, 8-11th September 2009, Leicester, UK Page global fit of the complete time series. The choice between a double logistic and asymmetric Gaussian basis function is dependent on the nature and extent of noise in the data. A six-year time series, 2003-2008, of FAPAR data was processed and the CORINE 2000 landcover data rasterised and grid size resampled to the spatial resolution of MERIS imagery. The SOS metric was extracted first in order to verify the quality of one metric before extracting other metrics. 3.4 Verification of the SOS metric using the IPG ground data The validity of the Start of Season (SOS) metric was verified at one point location by selecting a ground-based measure, the beginning of leaf unfolding, (BO), recorded at the Valentia IPG site and comparing it to the SOS metric computed for a pixel corresponding to the location of the site. The range across the sampled trees, from the earliest to the latest BO day, of each season was presented along with the SOS metric computed for the Valentia pixel. 4 Results 4.1 TIMESAT Model fitting Initially, data were fit to a basis of harmonic functions (double logistic) and asymmetric Gaussian functions, from which seasonality parameters were derived (Jönsson and Eklundh, 2004). Figure 1 illustrates the four steps in fitting a model function to the noisy MGVI time series in the TIMESAT Graphical Use Interface. A B C D Figure 1: Four steps in applying TIMESAT curve fits. (A) Noisy MGVI time series,(B) Noise removal, (C) Number of seasons calculated, (D) Smooth data series (double logistic fit). RSPSoc 2009, 8-11th September 2009, Leicester, UK Page 4.2 TIMESAT output imagery Figure 2 (a) and (b) show the six-year mean SOS (2003-2008) and the standard deviations of the mean trend. The resampled CORINE 2000 Landcover is presented in Figure 2 (c). There are strong indications, based on visual inspection of the results, that landcover and elevation have significant influence on start dates. However, current work to quantify the influence of landcover on SOS is being carried out. (a) (b) (c) Figure 2: (a): The 6-year mean of the SOS metric, 2003-2008. The composite number when SOS occurs is shown on the colour bar, zero represents areas where no season was calculated or where no data was available, composite ,1 January 1st to 10th and composite 18, June 20th to 29th. (b): the number of standard deviations calculated from the 6-year SOS mean, (c): CORINE 2000 Landcover showing the landcover classes used. 4.3 Comparison of Beginning of Leaf unfolding (BO) and SOS metric for Valentia IPG Table 1 shows the results of the SOS metric for a pixel corresponding to the Valentia IPG as well as the annual average beginning of leaf unfolding (BO) date recorded at the site for all trees sampled for the time series, 2003-2008. In each year, the SOS metric falls within the BO range and the 6-year total mean BO day across all trees is within the 6-year mean SOS. Table 1. Comparison of the annual range of Beginning of Leaf unfolding (BO) days at the Valentia IPG and TIMESAT computed metric (SOS) for a pixel corresponding to the same site 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 6-year total mean Valentia IPG (earliest and latest day of leaf 86-112 unfolding) TIMESAT 10-day SOS (day of year) 76-121 89-131 97-147 70 -117 81-90 121-130 91-100 91-100 91-100 111-120 (101-110) RSPSoc 2009, 8-11th September 2009, Leicester, UK 84-127 Page 105 5 Discussion A considerable diversity of landcover is present in the reduced resolution MERIS pixel and preventing species-level seasonality variation from being discerned. The relation of per-pixel measures to equivalent ground-measures is also problematic where the seasonality metric represents the whole vegetation cover rather than any single vegetation species. Averaging or using a range of point measurements from a number of individual trees over an area comparable to the size of the MERIS pixel has provided better results. The selection of the basis function used in TIMESAT modelling, e.g. double logistic or asymmetric Gaussian, will be subject to a more quantitative evaluation of their performance rather than a visual assessment of the shape and stability of the modelled curve. Such an evaluation will be carried out in order to quantify the difference between the modelled and the original data. The spatio-temporal patterns in annual SOS dates will be investigated in more detail as will the six-year trend per landcover type. The CORINE 2006 landcover change database will be used to assess the influence of landcover changes on the six-year SOS trend. The effect of spring air temperatures on start dates will also be investigated in a seasonality-climate correlation study. In summary, this study has shown that an integrated approach to vegetation seasonality monitoring, combining medium-spatial resolution satellite data and ground-based measurements, can offer the potential to show greening trends in Irish vegetation cover. The processing of a time series of the newly-developed advanced spectral index, MGVI (FAPAR), in the computer programme, TIMESAT, has provided a method for the automatic and consistent extraction of seasonality metrics for Ireland over six growing seasons. There is further potential to improve the TIMESAT outputs by tuning curve fits for each landcover class. It would appear that a significant pattern has emerged in SOS dates based on landcover but further work remains to quantify this relationship. Furthermore, a seasonality-climate correlations study will be carried out to explore the influence of climate on the six-year trend. 6 Acknowledgements The authors would like to acknowledge the contribution of the EPA (Ireland)-funded Climate Change Impacts on Phenology (CCIP) project to date as well as the input given by researchers at Lund University Sweden during time spent there. This project is being funded under the EPA STRIVE Masters Scholarship. RSPSoc 2009, 8-11th September 2009, Leicester, UK Page 7 References DONNELLY, A., JONES, M.B. and SWEENEY, J., 2004. A review of indicators of climate change for use in Ireland. International Journal of Biometeorology 49: 1-12. HIRD, J.N. and MCDERMID, G.J., 2009. Noise reduction of NDVI time series: An empirical comparison of selected techniques. Remote Sensing of Environment, 113: 248-258. JÖNSSON, P and EKLUNDH, L, 2002. Seasonality Extraction by Function Fitting to TimeSeries of Satellite Sensor Data. 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