Factors Shaping LongTerm Future Global Energy
Demand and Carbon Emissions
7th International Carbon Dioxide Conference
September 25-30, 2005
Jae Edmonds, Hugh Pitcher, and Steve Smith
25 September 2005
Joint Global Change Research Institute
Bloomfield, CO
Thanks to
Peter Tans & the Organizers of the
7th International Carbon Dioxide Conference
US DOE Office of Science
EPRI
Other sponsors of the GTSP
Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Brian Fisher, Richard Richels, & John Weyant
2
Key Question for Today
What are the sources of CO2 emissions?
How much carbon is there?
What are the fundamental drivers of CO2
emissions?
What range of CO2 emissions trajectories
could be anticipated (reference and
stabilization)?
3
Final Thoughts
Reference case fossil fuel and land-use change
carbon emissions are dominated by the fossil fuel
loading.
There is significant uncertainty in CO2 loading of the
atmosphere and oceans.

FF emissions range in 2100 from



Cumulative emissions 1990 to 2100 range from



~3 PgC/y (SRES B1T MESSAGE) to
>35 PgC/y (SRES A1C AIM)
<775 Pg to (SRES B1T MESSAGE)
>2,500 Pg (SRES A1C AIM)
The high end of these ranges are truncated in stabilization
scenarios.
Dramatic changes in energy technology are needed
over the century to realize the lower end of the
range.
4
Sources of Anthropogenic CO2
Emissions
Fossil fuel use (7.0 PgC/y in 2002)



Natural gas 13.7 TgC/EJ
Oil 20.2 TgC/EJ
Coal 25.5 TgC/EJ
Industrial process emissions (e.g. cement)

0.2 PgC/y
Land-use change emissions (1.7; 0.6-2.6 PgC/y)


Deforestation
Soil cultivation
5
Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions
2002
7,000
total 6,975
7,000
total 6,644
196 OTHER COUNTRIES
UKRAINE
6,000
SOUTH AFRICA
5,000
5,000
TgC/y
2,883
AUSTRALIA
75%
67%
4,000
TgC/y
Gas Flaring
Cement
Coal and other solids
Oil and other liquids
Natural Gas
4,000
BRAZIL
SAUDI ARABIA
81%
2,472
3,000
1,232
6,000
ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN
328
333
390
50%
3,000
MEXICO
REPUBLIC OF KOREA
CANADA
JAPAN
INDIA
893
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
WESTERN EUROPE
CHINA (MAINLAND)
2,000
2,000
1,000
1,348
0
1,000
957
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
1,592
0
Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory.
6
Land-use Carbon Emissions
1999
6,000
5,000
TgC/y
4,000
Pacific Developed Region
Tropical Asia
China
Former Soviet Union
Tropical Africa
North Africa & East Asia
Europe
Tropical America
Canada
United States
3,000
total 2,066
2,000
1,081
1,000
0
382
653
-110
7,000
6,000
Range of Land-use
Emissions
5,000
4,000
TgC/y
7,000
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,000
1,700
600
0
Low
-1,000
IPCC WG1
High
-1,000
Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center,
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, based on Houghton.
Source: IPCC WG1 Third Assessment Report.
7
Global Primary Energy
Global Energy Production 1850 to 1994
450
400
300
250
200
Nuclear
Hydro
Gas
Oil (feedstock)
Oil
Coal
Wood
150
100
50
0
18
50
18
56
18
62
18
68
18
74
18
80
18
86
18
92
18
98
19
04
19
10
19
16
19
22
19
28
19
34
19
40
19
46
19
52
19
58
19
64
19
70
19
76
19
82
19
88
19
94
Exajoules per Year
350
Source: IIASA
8
Historical Fossil Fuel CO2
Emissions 1751 to 2002
8,000
Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.
Gas Flaring
Cement
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
7,000
6,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
1991
1979
1967
1955
1943
1931
1919
1907
1895
1883
1871
1859
1847
1835
1823
1811
1799
1787
1775
1763
0
1751
TgC/y
5,000
9
Land-use Emissions 1850 to 2000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
1997
1990
1983
1976
1969
1962
1955
1948
1941
1934
1927
1920
1913
1906
1899
1892
1885
1878
1871
1864
1857
0
1850
TgC/y
Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center,
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, based on Houghton.
Pacific Developed Region
Tropical Asia
China
Former Soviet Union
Tropical Africa
North Africa & East Asia
Europe
Tropical America
Canada
United States
10
ENERGY RESOURCES
Will the Problem Go Away on Its
Own?
Won’t the limited conventional oil and gas
resource force a transition in the near term to a
world based on energy efficiency and renewable
and nuclear energy forms?
11
Carbon Reservoirs
Atmosphere 800 PgC (2004)
Biomass
~500 PgC
N. Gas
Oil
~260 PgC ~270 PgC
Soils
~1,500 PgC
Coal
5,000 to 8,000 PgC
Unconventional Fossil Fuels
15,000 to 40,000 PgC
12
Scenarios of Future Emissions
Climate & Sea Level
Atmospheric Chemistry
Climate System
Ocean
Temperature
Sea Level
Ecosystems
Human Activities
Energy
System
Other Human
Systems
Terrestrial
Carbon Cycle
Agriculture,
Livestock, &
Forestry
Coastal Zone
System
Crops &
Forest
Productivity
Unmanaged
Ecosystems
& Animals
Hydrology
Demand
•Crops
•Livestock and fish
•Forests products
•Urban land
Regional
demographics
Production
Markets
•Land rent
•Crop prices
•Livestock prices
•Forest product prices
•Biomass prices
Technology
Water
•Crops
•Livestock and fish
•Forests products
•Urban land
•Taxes
•Subsidies
•Parks
•Regulation
Climate
Regional
Fertility &
Survival
Rates
Regional
Labor
Force
Coal
Production
Synfuel
Conversion
Energy End-Use
Regional
GDP
Energy
Technologies
Regional
Resource
Constraints
Liquids
Market
Liquids
Refining
Synfuel
Conversion
Biomass
Market
Residential
Sector
Residential
Technologies
Trucks
Commercial
Sector
Commercial
Technologies
Industrial
Sector
Industrial
Technologies
Passenger
Transport
Natural Gas
Market
Gas
Processing
Wind
Hydrogen
GHG
Emissions
Transport
Sector
Electric Power
Generation
Bus
Rail
Air
Hydrogen
Market
Nuclear/Fusion
Hydro
Regional
Energy
Supply
Technologies
World
Prices and
Quantities
Automobile
Coal Market
N. Gas
Production
Land Use Change
Emissions
Policies
CO2
Regional
Prices
Energy Transformation
Land Use
•Crops
•Livestock and fish
•Forests products
•Urban
•Unmanaged
Supply
Fertilizer
Primary Energy
Biomass
Production
•Crops
•Livestock and fish
•Forests products
•Biomass energy
Demand for
Demand for Biomass
Commercial
Energy
Biomass
Regional
Labor
Productivity
Oil
Production
Commercial Biomass
Regional
Energy
Supply
Ocean
Carbon Cycle
Regional GDP
Energy
Module
Regional
Energy
Demand
Atmosphere
Scenarios of future
anthropogenic carbon
emissions to the
atmosphere use
complex energyeconomy-land-use
models.
Transport
Transport
Technologies
Technologies
Gasoline
Diesel
Motor Cycles
Kerosene
Water
Other Liquids
Natural Gas
Electricity
Market
Truck
Solar/SPS
Freight
Transport
H2
Rail
Solids
Air
Electricity
Water
Pipeline
13
Future Carbon Emissions
Scenarios
Which of the literally thousands of parameters
are most important to determining future
emissions of greenhouse gases?
Uncertainty analysis conducted to explore
precisely this question.



Edmonds, Reilly, Gardner and Brenkert (1986)
Scott, Sands, Edmonds, Liebetrau and Engel (2000)
Others include Nordhaus and Yohe (1983), Hammitt
(1992), Manne and Richels (1993), Alcamo, et al.
(1994), Dowlatabadi (1999), Gritsevskyi and
Nakicenovic (1999)
14
Results From an Uncertainty
Analysis
Four key factors
Labor productivity GDP
Technology
Income elasticity
demand
is the of
broad
set of
for energy covering know-how,
processes
servicestechnological
experience
and
equipment,
nature of the
development
process
used
by humans to produce
and transform
services
Rate of energy
technology
change
resources.

Technology
factors are
themselves
interrelated
variables
 Demand and
(Not
just devices)


Supply
Population
15
Demographics
Future global population is relatively certain in
the near term,
But uncertain in the long term.


Forecasts of population growth have risen, peaked
and declined over the past 25 years.
The present best guess population is about where it
was in 1978.
Future populations are aging rapidly.
16
Population Trajectories Are
Falling
18
18
17.33
17.33
1996IIASA
IIASA Low
Low
1996
16
16
14
14
1996 IIASA High
1996IIASA
IIASA High
Mid
1996
2001 IIASA Low
2001 IIASA Mid
1996 IIASA Mid
2001 IIASA High
14.35
12
12
Billions of Persons
Billions of Persons
Population
estimates have
declined recently
Many scenarios
show global
populations
declining at the end
of the 21st century.
10.71
10.71
10
10
88
8.41
66
5.71
5.71
44
4.29
22
00
2000
2000
Lutz et al., 1997, 2001
2025
2025
2050
2050
2075
2075
2100
2100
17
Increased Life Expectancy
Exacerbates Aging and Increases
Population
Increased life expectancy would offset most of the
population decline associate with decreasing total
completed fertility
8,500,000
8,000,000
Med Low 95
Med Low 85
7,000,000
6,500,000
6,000,000
5,500,000
5,000,000
4,500,000
Both use TCF=1.9
2095
2080
2065
2050
2035
2020
2005
4,000,000
1990
Total Population
7,500,000
Year
18
Labor Productivity
GDP = Labor productivity * Labor(hours)
Labor productivity growth rates are the major
determinant of the scale of economic activity.


They are relatively stable in the developed world.
They are highly varied in the developing world.
Uncertainty in developing country labor
productivity growth is a major source of
uncertainty in carbon emissions.
19
Growth in labor productivity
20
Stabilizing CO2
Base Case and “Gap” Technologies
Assumed advances in familiar
technologies
• Fossil fuels
• End use energy
• Nuclear
• Renewables
Less familiar
technologies
• Carbon capture &
disposal
The “Gap”
Adv. fossil
• H2 and adv.
transportation
• Biotechnologies
Soils, Bioenergy, adv.
Biological energy
21
Range of Reference Case Fossil Fuel
Carbon Emissions
60
Range of all scenarios in the database
Source: IIASA
Global CO2 Emissions (GtC)
Fossil & Industry
50
Median SRES 2100 emission = 14.4 PgC/y
Open literature 2100 emissions ~20 PgC/y
40
30
20
10
0
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
22
Range 765 to 2,531 PgC
Median 1,500 PgC
23
Cumulative Emissions and Stabilization
2,500
2,000
Range of Cumulative Carbon Emissions 1990 to 2100
for Alternative CO2 Concentrations,
ISAM Model Output
1,500
1,000
500
0
450 ppm
550 ppm
650 ppm
750 ppm
1000 ppm
24
Cumulative Emissions and
Stabilization
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
450
ppm
550
ppm
650
ppm
750
ppm
1000
ppm
25
Technology Alone Won’t
NECESSARILY Stabilize CO2 Concentrations
25,000
Energy Related Carbon Emissions
A reference case with advanced
technology development of carbon
capture and H2, but no climate
policy.
TgC per Year
20,000
A reference case
with continued
technology
development, and
no climate policy.
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1990
Emissions path that stabilizes
CO2 concentrations at 550 ppm.
2010
2030
2050
2070
2090
26
Policy Alone Will Not Necessarily
Deliver the Environmental Benefit at
Lowest Cost
$250
$225
$200
1990 US$ per Tonne C
Hypothetical
carbon tax,
uniformly &
efficiently
applied over to
everyone,
everywhere
Advanced fossil
fuel technologies
cut cost by more
than half
MiniCAM B2 550
MiniCAM B2 AT 550
$175
$150
$125
$100
$75
$50
$25
$0
1990
2010
2030
2050
2070
2090
27
Land Use Emissions
Land-use change emissions depend on
Population
 Income
 Technology
 Climate (including water)
 Policy (including climate policy)

Land use emissions are uncertain, but
Generally lower than fossil fuel emissions.
28
IPCC SRES Reference Case LandUse Change Emissions Scenarios
29
Land-Use Emissions are Sensitive
to Agricultural Productivity Growth
Rates and to Energy Policy
Land-Use Change Carbon Emissions
12,000
4000
3500
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
2500
2000
1500
1000
0
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080
2095
MiniCAM
500
-2,000
-4,000
Temperature stabilization scenario
3000
TgC/year C
Millions of tons of carbon per year
10,000
B2 Reference scenario
0
-5001990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
MiniCAM B2 550 0.0% Ag Productivity CC&D
MiniCAM B2 550 0.5% Ag Productivity CC&D
-1000
MiniCAM B2 550 1.5% Ag Productivity CC&D
30
CO2 Concentrations
Pre-industrial CO2 = 280 ppm
1958 Mauna Loa CO2 = 315 ppm
2004 Mauna Loa CO2 = 377 ppm
31
Final Thoughts
Reference case fossil fuel and land-use change
carbon emissions are dominated by the fossil fuel
loading.
There is significant uncertainty in CO2 loading of the
atmosphere and oceans.

FF emissions range in 2100 from



Cumulative emissions 1990 to 2100 range from



~3 PgC/y (SRES B1T MESSAGE) to
>35 PgC/y (SRES A1C AIM)
<775 Pg to (SRES B1T MESSAGE)
>2,500 Pg (SRES A1C AIM)
The high end of these ranges are truncated in stabilization
scenarios.
Dramatic changes in energy technology are needed
over the century to realize the lower end of the
range.
32