EU Grains
Supply and Demand
Outlook
Director J. Schaps
European Commission
Directorate C DG AGRI
IGC Grains Conference 2016
London, UK
14th June 2016
CONTENTS
1. Global Context
2. EU Grains Supply and Demand
3. Outlook
1
€ vs $ exchange rate:
a competitive Euro since 2 years
Crude oil price ($/barrel):
cheap oil since 2 years
2
Baltic Dry Index:
cheap transport since 2 years
Global Cereals Market: ample availabilities
Supply > Demand in recent years
(incl. in EU)
3
Global cereal prices: down since 2 years
EU cereals competitive
310
290
270
$ / tonne
250
230
Wheat - US SRW Gulf $ 208
210
Maize - US 3YC Gulf $ 192
190
Wheat - Black Sea Milling $ 191
Wheat - FR Cl. 1 Rouen $ 190
Maize - FR Bordeaux $ 183
170
150
Barley-FR Dlvd Rouen feed $ 159
CONTENTS
1. Global Context
2. EU Grains Supply and Demand
3. Outlook
4
EU Cereals Supply: good EU production
Production ≈ 310 Mio t (incl. wheat 150 Mio t)
Imports ≈ 18 Mio t (incl. maize 12 Mio t)
Wheat: soft + durum wheat
Coarse grains: maize + barley + all other grains
EU: a key player on the global market
150 Mio t EU wheat ≈ 20% of global production
5
EU Cereals Production ≈ 310 Mio t
Member States Overview
EU Cereals Demand: good EU exports
Domestic uses ≈ 280 Mio t (incl. feed 170 Mio t)
Exports ≈ 45 Mio t (incl. wheat 30 Mio t)
Wheat: soft + durum wheat
Coarse grains: maize + barley + all other grains
6
EU Cereals Market: Production > Consumption
EU 28 ‐ Cereals exports and imports Tradeincluding flour and other processed products in grain equivalent
Surplus
≈ 30 Mio t in recent years
60
50
EXPORTS
40
36.4
30
Trade balance
20
mio t
Coarse grain exports
Wheat exports
10
0
Wheat imports
10
20
IMPORTS
16.2
Coarse grain imports
30
Source: EUROSTAT Marketing Year (July‐June)
EU Oilseeds Supply: high imports
Production ≈ 33 Mio t (incl. rapeseed 22 Mio t)
Imports ≈ 16 Mio t (incl. soybean 13 Mio t*)
* Also annual imports of ≈ 19 Mio t of soya meal
7
EU Oilseeds Demand: no surplus
Domestic uses ≈ 48 Mio t
Exports ≈ 1 Mio t
EU Grains Trade – Overview
Key Exports (eg wheat) and Imports (eg soya)
Barley including malt
Common wheat (incl. flour and groats)
12
6
4
20
15
10
0
0
Durum wheat (incl. flour)
2.0
1.5
1.0
export
Rape or Colza seeds
2.5
8
6
export
4
2
0
0.0
Rape, colza or mustard oil
2.0
1.0
0.5
Soybeans
Soymeal
10
15
8
12
0.1
import
0.0
6
4
2
0
18
import
export
Million tons
0.2
Million tons
12
export
export
0.0
0.5
0.3
import
1.5
0.6
0.4
export
1.0
3.0
import
Million tons
10
Million tons
Million tons
3.0
0.0
12
import
2.0
4.0
Maize (Incl. processed products)
2.5
Million tons
import
5
import
2
import
5.0
export
Million tons
25
8
0.5
Palm oil
6.0
30
export
Million tons
Million tons
10
import
9
6
3
export
0
Source: EUROSTAT – July-March data
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CONTENTS
1. Global Context
2. EU Grains Supply and Demand
3. Outlook
EU Cereals Supply: positive outlook
Wheat to stay No 1 in EU
Annual change in yield between 2011-2015
and 2025
Annual changes in area and yields by crops between 2011-2015 and 2025 in the EU (%)
1
Maize
13%
0.8
Sugar beet
2%
0.6
Oats
Barley
4%
17%
Rice
Common wheat
1%
34%
Rapeseed
Other cereals
9%
6%
Durum wheat
3%
Rye
Sunflower seed
3%
6%
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
Annual change in area harvested between 2011-2015 and 2025
Note: the size of the bubble refers to the share in area harvest on average in the years 2011-15
18
9
EU Cereals Demand: positive outlook
for Food, Feed and Exports
Million t
150
100
50
Total Wheat
Exports
Maize
Bioenergy
Barley
Feed
2025
2010-15
2025
2010-15
2025
2010-15
2025
2010-15
0
Other cereals
Food and industrial
19
Concluding Remarks
• EU is a key player on global grains market
• Thanks to high supply, EU cereals competitive
• Environmental requirements may impact crop
production in the EU
• Outlook is positive for EU Supply and Demand
10
DG AGRI DASHBOARD: CEREALS
01 Jun 2016
Export prices FOB €/t
$/t
CA St Lawrence (CWAD)
EU Port‐la‐Nouvelle
260
n.q.
290
n.q.
5%
‐
2%
‐
‐20%
‐
‐19%
‐
barley
Black sea (feed)
EU Rouen (feed)
149
151
166
169
0%
5%
‐2%
2%
‐11%
‐12%
‐10%
‐11%
164
177
183
197
8%
7%
5%
4%
6%
12%
7%
13%
378
422
9%
6%
10%
12%
US Gulf (3YC)
maize
EU Bordeaux
soybeans US Gulf (2Y)
Wheat ‐ monthly avg. export prices (fob)
200
190
180
177
170
172
160
164
180
176
170
169
150
160
160
140
150
Sep‐15
Dec‐15
US Gulf
Mar‐16
EU Rouen
130
Jun‐15
Jun‐16
Black Sea
Sep‐15
US Gulf
World production (million tons)
Mar‐16
Jun‐16
EU Bordeaux
400
2015
Black Sea
75
60
45
30
15
0
02/04
350
300
250
210
$/t
JUL'16: 174
DEC'16: 185
JUL'17: 198
Daily volume
190
150
180
100
170
50
0
02/04
Chicago (CME) SRW futures
12/04
22/04
02/05
12/05
22/05
160
01/06
170
165
160
155
450
150
300
1.12
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
145
140
150
12/04
22/04
02/05
12/05
22/05
60
130
01/06
50
420
$/t
40
JUL'16: 404
AUG'16: 403
SEP'16: 396
Daily volume
380
300
360
200
340
100
320
50
30
Jun-15
400
400
Brent Crude Oil $/barrel
70
135
CME Maize futures
0
02/04
500
Exchange rate € vs $ $
1.14
1.13
1.12
1.11
1.10
1.09
1.08
1.07
1.06
Jun-15
175
600
600
200
200
750
Sep -15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Freight (Baltic dry index)
120 0
100 0
800
612
600
400
Chicago soybeans futures
0
02/04
12/04
22/04
02/05
12/05
22/05
200
Jun-15
300
01/06
Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16
Jun-16
313
200
722
145
66
100
320
62
0
0
2013/14
90
900
maize
2014/15 (est)
wheat
cereals
soybeans
2015/16 (forecast)
2013/14
2016/17 (proj.)
wheat
2014/15
World stocks (million tons)
barley
2016/17 (proj)
EU stocks (million tons)
60
50
40
30
20
10
474
400
223
205
maize
2015/16 (est)
200
29
49
18
15
8
Crops status
1003
1000
600
205
200
195
190
185
180
175
170
165
160
155
150
Euronext milling wheat futures
145
140
12/04 22/04 02/05 12/05 22/05 01/06
105
Monthly avg: currency ‐ oil ‐ freight
180
$/t
JUL'16: 163
DEC'16: 164
JUL'17: 169
Daily volume
300
2000
cereals
120
EU production (million tons)
3000
0
25
20
600
Trim avg 5MY
15
400
10
200
5
0
0
1
10
19
28
37
46
2014/15
2015/16 (est)
2016/17 (proj)
Barley export commitments
900
30
Weekly
volume
(current MY)
800
1 000
35
barley
Weekly
volume
(current MY)
800
700
2015/16 - 9.1 m io t.
10
1 200
9
1 100
7
2014/2015
600
6
500
5
400
4
300
3
200
Trim avg 5MY
100
2
1
0
0
1
10
19
28
Week
Week
37
46
Maize import commitments
2014/2015
900
800
700
100 0
10
800
8
Weekly
volume
(current MY)
600
500
6
Trim avg 5MY 4
400
300
200
2
100
0
0
1
10
19
28
37
2016 ‐ Cereals TRQs ‐ WTO
2016 ‐ Cereals TRQs ‐ Ukraine
12
2 500
2015/16 - 12.5 mio
1 000
8
Qty available
Qty allocated
600
400
950
Thousand tons
1 000
2013/14
2016/17 (proj.)
2014/2015
maize
Thousand tons
2015/16 - 29.9 m io t.
1 200
wheat
TRQs
2015/16 (forecast)
Wheat and flour export commitments
1 400
cereals
soybeans
Total f or MY - million tons
2014/15 (est)
wheat
Total f or MY - million tons
2013/14
maize
Weekly v olume - thousand tons
cereals
Total f or MY - million tons
0
Weekly v olume - thousand tons
Dec‐15
135
CME US maize & soybeans futures ‐ 60 days
Weather conditions
140
Jun‐15
Maize ‐ monthly avg. export prices (fob)
190
€/t
210
Production & Stocks
‐9%
‐18%
‐6%
durum wheat
€/t
220
Trade
‐11%
‐19%
‐7%
210
€/t
JUL'16: 165
DEC'16: 175
JUL'17: 179
Daily volume
Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 127 tons)
‐2%
‐1%
2%
150
Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 136tons)
1%
2%
5%
Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 50 tons)
196
197
179
EU (milling) & US (SRW) wheat futures ‐ 60 days
Weekly v olume - thousand tons
Prices
176
176
160
y/y variation
€/t
$/t Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 136 tons)
US Gulf (SRW)
US Gulf (HRW)
EU Rouen (grade 1)
wheat
Last update: 02.06.2016
Available at : http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/dashboards/index_en.htm
m/m variation
€/t
$/t
Qty available
2 000
Qty allocated
1 500
2 278
1 000
500
572
200
400
236
0
39
Canada
USA
14
0
Common
wheat
Barley
101
123
139
139
307
other
all
origins
all
origins
all
origins
Maize
Barley
countries
Maize
Common wheat
46
Week
Sources : European Commission (DG ESTAT, DG JRC, DG AGRI), MSs notifications (Regulation (EC) 1342/2003), European Central Bank, IGC, ICE, The Baltic Exchange, CME, MATIF, France Agrimer
Thank you for your attention!
EU balance sheets & market presentations available:
http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/cereals/balancesheets/index_en.htm
Cereals dashboard available:
http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/dashboards/index_en.htm
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