Cognitive and socio-emotional
skills of the Bulgarian workforce
Findings from the Bulgarian Longitudinal
Inclusive Society Survey (BLISS)
Victoria Levin
13 November 2015
Outline

Background: Why do skills matter in Bulgaria?

Definitions: What do we mean by skills?

Data: How do we measure skills?

Findings

Policy Implications
2
Outline

Background: Why do skills matter in Bulgaria?

Definitions: What do we mean by skills?

Data: How do we measure skills?

Findings

Policy Implications
3
Percent
-10
Bulgaria
Latvia
Romania
Croatia
Lithuania
Estonia
Poland
10
Hungary
Slovakia
Slovenia
Czech
Republic
Bulgaria’s population is aging and shrinking
Population dynamics, 2010-2050
0
-20
-30
-40
4
There was a recent shift in labor demand from
low-skill to higher-skill intensive sectors
Cumulative employment growth, 2008-2013
18.3
17
13.2
8.9
5.3
-4.2
-5.9
-10.9
-20.1
Construction
Manufacturing
Agriculture
Public administration
Trade, transport, hotels
Arts, entertainment
Business services
Real estate
Financial services
-39.8
ICT
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
Source: WB calculations based on NSI data
5
Employment Composition (simple cross country average by type of
occupation)
(2000-2012)
Developing countries
50
50
45
45
Share in total employment (%)
Share in total employment (%)
OECD countries
40
35
30
25
20
40
35
30
25
20
200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011
Non-routine cognitive or inter-personal
Non-routine cognitive or inter-personal
Routine cognitive or manual
Routine cognitive or manual
Non-routine manual
Non-routine manual
Source: WDR 2016 team, based on ILO KILM data. Skills classification follows Autor (2014).
There are concerns about the preparedness of
Bulgaria’s current workforce…
Worker education ranked as the
fourth-most important concern of
Bulgaria’s employers in 2008
This concern was especially
severe in IT sector and some subsectors of manufacturing
7
… and future workforce to address the
demographic challenge
Distribution of students by proficiency level in
math, 2012
Bulgaria has the highest rate of
functional innumeracy in Europe…
Index of School Social Stratification
…and the highest
level of school social
stratification
Source: PISA 2012 data.
8
Objectives
•
Examine the skills profile of Bulgaria’s current workforce
•
Assess the relationship between skills and labor market
outcomes

Labor force participation

Employability

Earnings

Public vs private employment
9
Outline

Background: Why do skills matter in Bulgaria?

Definitions: What do we mean by skills?

Data: How do we measure skills?

Findings

Policy Implications
10
The three dimensions of skills
Cognitive
Socioemotional
Technical
Involving the use of
logical, intuitive and
creative thinking
“Soft” skills, social skills,
life-skills, personality
traits
Involving manual
dexterity and / or the use
of methods, materials,
tools and instruments
Problem solving ability
(as opposed to having
knowledge to solve a
specific problem)
Openness to experience,
conscientiousness,
extraversion,
agreeability, emotional
stability
Technical skills
developed through
vocational schooling or
acquired on the job
Verbal ability, numeracy,
problem solving, memory
(working and long-term)
and mental speed
Self-regulation,
perseverance, decision
making, interpersonal
skills
Skills related to a
specific occupation (e.g.
engineer, economist, IT
specialist, etc)
11
Socio-emotional skills are important to employers
Asia-Pacific
Bulgaria
Global
Americas
EMEA
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
% of employers citing workplace competencies (soft skills) as
reason for difficulty in filling a vacancy
Source: Manpower 2012 data.
12
Outline

Background: Why do skills matter in Bulgaria?

Definitions: What do we mean by skills?

Data: How do we measure skills?

Findings

Policy Implications
13
The Bulgarian Longitudinal Inclusive Society
Survey (BLISS)
 Implemented by the World Bank in partnership with
Open Society Institute – Sofia
 Builds on the data collected in three rounds of
Bulgaria’s Crisis Monitoring Survey (CMS) in 20102011

Sample: nationally-representative with 2,400 + 300
households in segregated (mostly Roma)
neighborhoods

Questionnaire: Changes focus from crisis impacts to
more structural issues on activation & skills
 Innovative module on cognitive and socio-emotional
skills for a nationally-representative sample of the
adult (18-65) population
Cognitive skills assessment in BLISS
•
Memory: short-term recall of increasingly longer number sequences, starting with two
numbers and ending with 9 numbers (12 items)
•
Semantics: familiarity with synonyms, antonyms, idioms, complex sentence structure (7
multiple-choice items)
•
Reading comprehension: ability to respond to questions about a short non-technical text
(5 multiple-choice items)
•
Comprehension of tables and charts: ability to understand written instructions and ability
to read a timetable (4 multiple-choice items)
•
Numeracy: ability to perform simple calculations (6 multiple-choice items)
What is the promotional price of
one bottle in the package?
Before the sale, how much did
three packages cost?
In cents, what is the reduction in
package price during the sale?
Socio-emotional skills assessment in BLISS (1/2)

Work and learning style factor: captures the individual’s attitude towards work and his
willingness to learn new things. It’s a combination of the following skills:

Conscientiousness: tendency to be organized, responsible, and hardworking (i.e.
When doing a task, are you very careful?).

Openness to experience: tendency to be open to new aesthetic, cultural, or
intellectual experiences (i.e. Are you very interested in learning new things?).

Grit: perseverance and passion for long-term goals (i.e. Do you finish whatever you
begin?).

Achievement-striving: facet of conscientiousness: need for personal achievement
and sense of direction (i.e. Do you do more than what's expected of you?).

Decision making: process of generating solutions and considering future
consequences (i.e. Do you think about how the things you do will affect you in the
future?).
Socio-emotional skills assessment in BLISS (2/2)

Relational factor: captures how the individual socializes. It’s a combination of the following
skills:


Extraversion: orientation of one’s interests and energies toward the outer world of
people and things rather than the inner world of subjective experience;
characterized by positive affect and sociability. (i.e. Are you talkative?).

Agreeableness: tendency to act in a cooperative, unselfish manner (i.e. Are you
generous to other people with your time or money?).

A facet of openness to experience: Do you enjoy beautiful things, like nature, art,
and music?

A facet of decision making: Do you ask for help when you don't understand
something?
Fixed mindset factor: belief that one’s personality is malleable or fixed (i.e. As much
as I hate to admit it, you can’t teach an old dog new tricks. You can’t really change their
deepest attributes).
Outline

Background: Why do skills matter in Bulgaria?

Definitions: What do we mean by skills?

Data: How do we measure skills?

Findings

Policy Implications
18
Skills profile: Significant but not perfect
correlation with educational attainment
Average skills in Bulgaria's WAP, by Education
***
1
0.5
***
***
**
***
***
***
***
**
0
-0.5
Primary or below
***
***
Secondary (base)
Bachelor
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
MA/PhD
-1
Fixed mindset factor
Working/learning style factor
Numeracy
Reading of other
Reading of texts
Semantics
Memory
Cognitive skills
Relational factor
***
-1.5
Overall cognitive
Standardized score
1.5
Socio-emotional skills
Notes: Significant differences from base category: * 10%, ** 5%, ***1%. Students aged less than 25 years old have been removed from the sample
Skills profile: Older adults have lower cognitive
but higher socio-emotional skills related to
socializing with others
**
*
18-29
30-49 (base)
50-65
Cognitive skills
Fixed mindset factor
Working/learning style factor
Relational factor
***
Overall cognitive
**
Numeracy
Reading of other
*
***
Reading of texts
**
Semantics
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
-0.05
-0.1
-0.15
-0.2
Memory
Standardized score
Average skills in Bulgaria's WAP, by Age
Socio-emotional skills
Notes: Significant differences from base category, controlling for education: * 10%, ** 5%, ***1%.
Students aged less than 25 years old have been removed from the sample
Skills profile: Almost no gender differences in
skills
Average skills in Bulgaria's WAP, by Gender
Standardized score
0.15
***
0.1
Men (base)
0.05
Women
*
0
-0.05
-0.1
Cognitive skills
Fixed mindset factor
Working/learning style factor
Relational factor
Overall cognitive
Numeracy
Reading of other
Reading of texts
Semantics
Memory
-0.15
Socio-emotional skills
Notes: Significant differences from base category: * 10%, ** 5%, ***1%. Students aged less than 25 years old have been removed from the sample
Skills profile: Lower educational attainment of
Roma and other ethnic groups leads to skills
gaps when compared to ethnic Bulgarians
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1
-1.2
-1.4
-1.6
****
Bulgarian (base)
Roma
**
**
*
***
Other
Cognitive skills
Fixed mindset factor
Working/learning style factor
Relational factor
Overall cognitive
Numeracy
Reading of other
Reading of texts
Semantics
**
**
Memory
Standardized score
Average skills in Bulgaria’s primary-educated WAP, by Ethnicity
Socio-emotional skills
Notes: Significant differences from base category: * 10%, ** 5%, ***1%. Students aged less than 25 years old have been removed from the sample
Skills matter for the employment of men, while
education matters for women
Marginal effects of education and skills on the probability of being
employed for those in the labor force
0.5
***
0.06
Education
Skills
**
**
0.04
0.4
***
0.02
*
**
0.3
0
***
0.2
***
-0.02
**
-0.04
0.1
**
-0.06
0
Cognitive skills
Post-secondary
Men
Secondary
Women
All
Relational factor Work/learning style
factor
Men
Women
Fixed mindset
factor
All
Note: The figures show marginal effects of education and skills from a multivariate regression on the
probability of being employed. Coefficient’s significance: * 10%, ** 5%, *** 1%.
Cognitive and socio-emotional skills are
correlated with earnings
Coefficients of skills on the log monthly wage
0.08
*
0.06
***
***
***
0.04
0.02
Men
Women
0
All
-0.02
-0.04
**
-0.06
Cognitive skills
Relational factor
Work/learning style factor
Fixed mindset factor
Note: Coefficients of skills from a ordinary least squares regression on the log of hourly wage
Coefficient’s significance: * 10%, ** 5%, *** 1%.
For women, socio-emotional skills matter for
public vs. private employment
Marginal effects of skills on the probability of working in the
private sector for those who are employed
0.08
*
0.06
Men
0.04
Women
All
0.02
0
-0.02
-0.04
-0.06
*
**
-0.08
Cognitive skills
Relational factor
Work/learning style factor
Fixed mindset factor
Note: The figures show marginal effects of skills from a multivariate regression on the probability of
being employed in the private sector. Coefficient’s significance: * 10%, ** 5%, *** 1%.
Summary
Cognitive skills
Relational factor
Work/learning style factor
Fixed mindset factor
Secondary education
Post-secondary education
Being in the labor
force, for workingage individuals
Being employed, for
active working-age
individuals
Earnings, for
employed workingage individuals
Women
Women
Women
Men
Men
Men
Being employed in
the private sector, for
working working-age
individuals
Women
Men
Outline

Background: Why do skills matter in Bulgaria?

Definitions: What do we mean by skills?

Data: How do we measure skills?

Findings

Policy Implications
27
Skill formation benefits from earlier investments
and is cumulative
28
Policy implications for education – 3 Focus areas
•
Ensure greater equality
•
•
•
•
Compulsory and accessible early education
Early inclusion of poor, vulnerable, and marginalized groups
Per capita financing
Enhance quality
•
•
•
Curricula and materials
Teacher standards and qualification
Improve accountability and responsiveness
•
•
•
•
Autonomous schools and universities
Public universities
Employer involvement in vocational schools and universities
Availability of labor market information
29
Policy implications for workforce development
•
Credibly assess demand for and supply of skills
•
•
•
•
Labor force and employer surveys
National Network for Competence Assessment
Bulgarian University Ranking System
Engage with employers
•
•
•
Address disconnects
Partner on resource and training
Enhance Active Labor Market Programs
•
•
Increase participation
Incorporate socio-emotional skills interventions
30
Thank you
For questions and comments please contact
Victoria Levin
[email protected]