WORLD ENERGY ASSESSENT
MAIN FINDINGS
The World Energy Assessment
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
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Established in 1998 by UNDP, DESA, WEC
Will serve as input to CSD-9 preparatory process,
CSD-9 and beyond (Rio +10)
Two phases:

Editorial phase: Collaborative effort to provide scientific
and technical analysis for the report and discussions –
September 1998 - August 2000
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Consultative and Outreach phase: Provide input to
editorial phase and disseminate findings and encourage
discussion and debate – April 1999 - April 2001
Funding: Austria, Norway, Finland, Sweden, the Energy
Foundation and the United Nations Foundation
World Primary Energy Use, 1998
EJ
Fossil Fuels
oil
natural gas
coal
Renewables
large hydro
traditional
“new” ren.
Nuclear
Total
EJ
%
320
80
56
14
26
402
6
100
142
85
93
9
38
9
Present Energy Consumption
Primary Energy Consumption
Industrialized Countries
Hydro
6%
Biomass
4%
Nuclear
9%
Developing Countries
Coal
18%
Natural
Gas
21%
Oil
42%
Population: 1.34 billion
% of fossil fuels: 81%
Energy = 6,701 x 106 toe
Population: 4.56 billion
% of fossil fuels: 70%
Energy = 3,861 x 106 toe
5.0 toe/capita
0.85 toe/capita
Issues related to the present
energy system
Energy approaches affect many important
issues:
•Social
•Economic
•Environmental and Health
•Security
Investments in Energy Supply
Issue: Mobilization of capital for energy
supply investments
• Investment in energy supply projected at
$300-500 billion per year for the next 20
years, depending on path chosen
• Less than 10% of total overall investments
Oil Imports as Share of Export Earnings in
Various Developing Countries, 1985-97
70%
60%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Et
ho
pi
a
Za
m
bi
a
h
ng
la
de
s
Ba
H
ai
ti
M
oz
am
b.
..
ha
na
G
Ph
ill
ip
pi
ne
s
ki
st
an
0%
Pa
Percent
50%
Source: World Bank, 1999
1985
1990
1995
1997
Energy and Development
• 2 billion people have no access to electricity
and an additional 2 billion people have access
to unreliable electricity.
• 2 billion people cook using traditional fuels.
Energy and Women
Heavy burden on millions of women and children:
• Millions are spending hours a day carrying fuel and
water
• Millions are being exposed to high levels of indoor air
pollution leading to premature deaths
Example: The World Health Organization estimates
that air pollution indoor causes 2.7–3.0 million
premature deaths a year, or 5–6 percent of global
mortality.
Environmental Degradation
Energy activities contribute to indoor air pollution, urban air
pollution, acidification and global warming:
• 86% of anthropogenic emissions of sulphur dioxide
• Greenhouse gas emissions: 78% of carbon dioxide, 23% of
methane
• A significant fraction of emissions of small particulate matter
• Significant fractions of many other environmental challenges
Energy Resources
• Conventional oil and gas could last at least 50-100
years.
• Total fossil fuel resources will last at least several
hundreds of years
There will be no resource-constraint
driven transformation of the world energy
system for a long time to come
• Renewable energy flows are some 1000 times
current global energy use
Oil imports in OECD, %
1996
2010
2020
North
America
Europe
45
63
63
53
74
85
Pacific
90
96
96
Total
OECD
56
72
76
Towards a more Sustainable
Future
The linkages described lead to a demand for
change of the present energy system development
 The magnitude of the change required is not small
 The challenge is to find a way forward that
addresses all the issues simultaneously
 A paradigm shift is needed
Sustainable Energy:
Energy that is produced and used in ways
that simultaneously support human
development over the long-term in all its
social, economic, and environmental
dimensions
Technical Options for a more
Sustainable Future
•Improved
Energy Efficiency - especially at the point of enduse in buildings, electric appliances, vehicles, and production
processes.
•More
Renewable Energy: such as biomass, wind, solar, hydro,
and geothermal
•Advanced
•next
Energy Technologies:
generation fossil fuel technologies
•nuclear technologies, if
can be resolved.
the issues associated with nuclear
Outlook for More Efficient
Use of Energy
• Cost effective over the next 20 years to
reduce primary energy consumed per unit of
energy services
• OECD Countries
• Developing Countries
• Economies in transition
25-35%
30- >45%
>40%
• Greater gains in efficiency feasible with
advanced energy technologies that offer
multiple benefits
Outlook for wind energy
•
•
•
•
•
•
Rapid global growth, 30% per year
14 GW total installed capacity in 1999
Rapid cost decline
“Baseload” wind power possible
Huge potential, remote from markets
Multi-GW wind power plants + storage +
HV transmission
Potential “Excess” Electricity from
Sugarcane in Developing Countries
1995 Cane
2025 Cane
2025 "Excess"
1995 Utility
2025 Cane
Production
Prod. @ 2%/yr
Electricity
Elec. Prod.
Elec./1995
(million tc)
(million tc)
(TWh/year)
(TWh)
Utility Elec.
Brazil
304
550
330
257
1.3
India
260
470
282
364
0.8
China
70
127
76
859
0.09
Carribean
48
87
52
42
1.2
Indonesia
31
57
34
58
0.6
Other Latin Am.
152
275
165
438
0.4
Others
233
422
253
912
0.3
Totals
1098
1988
1192
2930
0.4
Advanced Fossil Fuel Technology
• Syngas
• Technology for manufacturing H2 from abundant and
secure energy sources (e.g. coal)
• H2 competitive as energy carrier … need technologies that
– put high market value on H2 (e.g. fuel cells in
transport)
– reduce H2 cost (e.g. H2 separation membrane reactors)
• H2 must be produced centrally to minimize cost of CO2
disposal
• Large, widely available, secure, and environmentally
acceptable storage capacity for CO2 - geological storage
options promising (depleted oil/NG fields, deep beds of
unminable coal, deep saline aquifers)
Power systems
• Optimal unit size declining, 30% of new
capacity below 10MW
• Gas turbines, micro turbines, CHP, wind,
solar, fuel cells, ….
• Distributed generation, virtual utilities
• Value of generation close to consumption
higher than central station
• Who looks after the “system”?
Energy for Rural Development
Provision of clean liquid or gaseous fuels
for cooking and of electricity for lighting and
other basic commodities at the household
level
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

Provision of liquid fuels and electricity for
mechanization of agriculture
Provision of electricity that is sufficiently
low in cost that it could attract industrial
activity to rural areas
Solutions to Rural Energy Needs
Rural Eletrification
The “centralized” approach: eletrification from grids has reached 800
million people in 20 years. Still 1,800 million without access.
Global electrification and population (millions)
The “decentralized” approach:
Year
1970
1980
1990

Diesel engine generator sets
World population
3,600
4,400
5,300
Rural population:
 With access*
to electricity
 Without access*
2,600
610
2,000
3,000
1,000
2,000
3,200
1,400
1,800

Small-scale hydro
Photovoltaics

Wind Small-scale wind
Percentage of
rural access
23%
33%
44%

Small-scale biopower
using producer gas
Electricity and LPG from Corn
Stalks in Jilin Province, China
• Rough cost estimate, LPG from corn stalks:
– Stand alone production:
~ $15/GJ
– Once-thru co-production:
~ $6/GJ
(electricity sold for 5c/kWh)
(Retail LPG price in rural China: ~ $8/GJ)
• LPG and electricity co-produced from available corn
stalks (excluding those needed for soil conditioning
and other non-energy uses) could meet current rural
cooking fuel demand twice over and electric demand
six times over.
Policies for Sustainable Energy
An energy future compatible with sustainable
development will not happen by itself, thus policy
change is required, including:
• Making markets work better, including mobilizing
investments
• Focusing on the innovation chain
• Reforming the power sector
• Increasing capacity to support policy and
institution building, and transfer of technology
Making markets work better

Setting the right framework conditions (including continued
market reform and appropriate regulatory measures and
policies) to encourage competitiveness in energy markets and
protect public benefits

Setting accurate price signals, including removal of subsidies to
fossil fuel energy and some internalization of externalities
(Subsidies of $100 - 200 billion/year to conventional
energy.)
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Supporting technological leadership and capacity building in
developing countries
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Encouraging greater international cooperation
The Innovation Chain
•
•
•
•
Research and Development
Demonstration projects
Early deployment (cost buy-down)
Widespread dissemination
Experience curves for photovoltaics,
windmills, and gas turbines
RD&D phase
20000
1983
1981
Photovoltaics
(learning rate ~ 20%)
Commercialization
phase
10000
USA
Japan
1992
5000
US(1990)$/kW
1995
2000
Windmills (USA)
(learning rate ~ 20%)
1982
1000
1987
500
1963
Gas turbines (USA)
1980
(learning rate ~ 20%, ~10%)
200
100
10
100
1000
Cumulative MW installed
10000
100000
Policy options: cost-buy-down
and dissemination
Good ideas for policy implementation are gaining ground
around the world
Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)
Subsidies with “sunset” clauses
Concessions
Retail financing
Clean Development Mechanism
Some electricity policy issues
• Grid access, IPPs
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–
–
–
•
•
•
•
Distributed generation
Biomass power
Wind energy concessions
Small scale hydro
End-use efficiency
Net metering
Competition and system responsibility
Rural electrification
Developing countries
•
•
•
•
Capacity building
Policy support and institution building
Good governance
Investment-friendly environments, socially and
environmentally responsible
• Technological leap-frogging
• Consumer credits, micro-finance
• Education and training
WORLD ENERGY ASSESSENT
MAIN FINDINGS