Nordic Energy Road Map 2050 Strategic Choices towards

Nordic Energy Road Map 2050
Strategic Choices towards Carbon Neutrality
(NORSTRAT)
A project within the program
“Sustainable Energy System 2050”
from Nordic Energy Research
Contact: [email protected]
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Outline of presentation
General about the NORSTRAT project
Analyses of the Nordic power system –
Carbon Neutral scenarios
Electrification of the transport sector
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Outline of presentation
General about the NORSTRAT project
Analyses of the Nordic power system –
Carbon Neutral scenarios
Electrification of the transport sector
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NORSTRAT description (1:2)
 Objective: To build knowledge about possible carbon neutral futures
for an integrated Nordic power system in a time perspective up to
2050 based on qualitative scenario analysis of impacts on the
electricity, the transport and the heating system combined with the
necessary governance aspects to enable the transformation.
 Two alternative paths are examined:
• Nordic Balance - A carbon neutral region related to electricity and
transport
• European Hub - The Nordic region as a major exporter of green
electricity for Europe
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NORSTRAT description (2:2)
• Project period: August 2011 – 2015
• Partners: SINTEF Energy Research, Stockholm Environment Institute
(SEI), Technical University Denmark (DTU)
• Related Baltic project: Similar project for the Baltic region. Partners:
Riga Technical University and Stockholm Environment Institute Tallinn
• 2 PhDs
SEI/KTH
• Reference group
•
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•
•
•
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•
•
•
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Vattenfall
Dong Energy
(Statnett)
Finngrid
Energinet.dk
Dansk Energi
Vestas
Energi Norge
Enova
Fortum
Svenska Kraftnet
Policy,
regulation &
instruments
DTU
Electrification
of transport
and heating
SINTEF
Energy markets
& transmission
development
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Outline of presentation
General about the NORSTRAT project
Analyses of the Nordic power system –
Carbon Neutral scenarios
Electrification of the transport sector
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The Nordic power system in 2010 (TWh)
Energy
Denmark Finland Norway Sweden
source
8
0
1
4
Wind power
3
10
0
12
Other
renewable
26
31
5
8
Fossil fuels
0
22
0
56
Nuclear
power
0
13
117
66
Hydropower
0
1
0
0
Nonidentifiable
Production
37
77
123
145
Consumption
36
88
130
147
Sum
13
25
70
78
196
1
382
401
Source: Nord Pool, ENTSO-E
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Location of increase in
power demand 2050 based
on expected population
increase
Population increase (1000 inhabitants)
Source: SSB, ….
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Localization of
new wind production
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Potential for new production from RES in the
Nordic region, "Low" and "High case"
Country
Denmark
Finland
Norway
Sweden
Total
Technology
Offsh wind
PV
Bio
Onsh/offsh wind
Bio
Onsh/offsh wind
Hydro
Onsh/offsh wind
PV
Bio
"Low" [TWh/y] "High"[TWh/y]
25
40
5
5
5
10/
10/30
20
20
13/0
20/30
10
20
20/20
30/30
5
5
10
10
152
248
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NORSTRAT scenarios
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Brief overview of EMPS modelling concept
Strategy calculation (SDP)
Details for hydropower
Electricity market
specification
Market data
Allocation
Aggregation
Calibration
Water
values
Market simulation (LP)
Stochastic
weather
Realization
Simulation results
Solutions
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Investment algorithm (for analysis of profitable increases in
transmission capacities)
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TSO data model for Nordic region
+
Detailed model of Germany
and UK
+
Single node model per
European country
(not visible in figure)
41 year of input date for:
Hydro inflow
Wind
Solar
Result:
90 000 periods with
simulations
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Production portfolio Europe
6000
5000
Bio
4000
Solar/tidal
Wind
3000
Hydro
2000
Nuclear
Oil
1000
Gas
Coal
0
2005
Ref
Current
policies
EE
Div supply
High RES Delayed CCS Low nucl
EU Energy Road Map Scenario 2050 (EU 27)
NORSTRAT
Europe minus
Nordic region
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Carbon Neutral
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Purely RES
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European Battery
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European Hub
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Net yearly power flow
European
Hub
Carbon
Neutral
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Profitable investments in transmission grids
NORSTRAT scenarios
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Flow VESTSYD – Great Britain Mid
before and after
increasing
transmission
capacities
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Outline of presentation
General about the NORSTRAT project
Analyses of the Nordic power system –
Carbon Neutral scenarios
Electrification of the transport sector
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Demand Study on Large Scale
Deployment of EVs in Nordic Region
 Study Scope:
 Private Passenger Cars
 Energy Consumption Rate:
 150 Wh/km
 Driving Pattern:
 Fulfill the Current Driving Requirement
Source: Technical University of Denmark
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Data Sources: National Travel Survey
Source: Technical University of Denmark
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Number of Passenger Cars in Nordic
Region
Denmark
Sweden
2,1 mil.
3,7 mil.
Norway
Finland
2,8 mil.
3,0 mil.
Source: Technical
University of Denmark
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Annual Electricity Consumption of
EVs in Nordic Region
EV
Penetration
Level
Denmark
East
[GWh]
Denmark
West [GWh]
Sweden
[GWh]
Norway
[GWh]
Finland
[GWh]
100%
2650
1952
6565
5413
7634
70%
1855
1366
4596
3789
5344
50%
1325
986
3283
2707
3817
Source: Technical University of Denmark
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EV Charging Analysis in Nordic
Region
 Dumb Charging (All-Day)
 Dumb Charging (At Home)
 Timed Charging (Initiating After 21:00 When Parked)
 Spot Price Based Charging (All-Day)
 Spot Price Based Charging (At Home)
Source: Technical University of Denmark
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Peak Electrical Charging Load of EVs
in Nordic Region [1phase-10A Charging]
Source: Technical University of Denmark
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EV/grid analysis
Reference
Spot
Dumb
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Preliminary conclusions
 Expected population growth and plans for new renewable production are in
many cases in different regions. This particularly applies to Norway.
 The Nordic region has sufficient potential for new renewable power
production to phase out fossil production and to cover the estimated increase
in demand.
 The profitability for expansion of the transmission grid is "modest" in the
scenario Carbon Neutral, an increase of the capacity of ca 9% compared to
2012
 Export of 110 TWh/y from the Nordic region to Europe combined with demand
growth and phasing out fossil production results in profitability of large
expansions of transmission capacities (61% compared to 2012) (scenario
European Hub)
 Connections between Norway and UK and Norway and Germany are found
profitable in the scenarios where it is allowed to build the connections.
 100% deployment of EVs for personal transport increases power consumption
in Norway with 4-5% and peak load with nearly 15%.
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Takk for oppmerksomheten!!
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