AARHUS UNIVERSITY NH3 Emissions from Fertilisers Nick Hutchings, Aarhus University J Webb, Ricardo-AEA 1 AARHUS UNIVERSITY Some history • Lack of scientific documentation for the Guidebook methodology • Review of literature (AU Environmental Sciences) • Mean emission factor for each fertiliser type • Some increases in emission factors (especially urea) • Additional data found (Bouwman et al 2002 database) • More detailed analysis (AU Agroecology + Ricardo-AEA) 2 AARHUS UNIVERSITY Statistical analysis (1) • Variables considered: • Fertiliser type • Measurement method • Location (indoor, outdoor) • Application method (broadcast, incorporated etc) • Soil type • Soil pH • Soil CEC • Crop type (bare soil, grass, maize, rice, other cereals) • Temperature • Rainfall intensity (mm/day) • Data are unbalanced • Many data are missing from individual observations 3 AARHUS UNIVERSITY Statistical analysis (2) • • • • No significant differences between measurement methods or crop types Significant differences between indoor/outdoor and application method For Guidebook, estimate emissions for application outdoor and broadcast Group fertilisers into types: • Urea • Fertilisers containing urea (e.g. UAN, UAS) • Fertilisers not containing urea (e.g. CAN, AN, AS) • Assume effect of soil and climate characteristics operate independently: • Soil characteristics – soil pH, soil CEC. Assume fertiliser type x pH interaction • Climate characteristics – temperature and rainfall intensity 4 AARHUS UNIVERSITY Results • Significant differences between urea (U), fertilisers with urea (U+) and fertilisers without urea (U-) 5 AARHUS UNIVERSITY Results • Significant differences between urea (U), fertilisers with urea (U+) and fertilisers without urea (U-) • Significant positive effect of soil pH • Significant fertiliser type x soil pH interaction 6 AARHUS UNIVERSITY Results • Significant differences between urea (U), fertilisers with urea (U+) and fertilisers without urea (U-) • Significant postive effect of soil pH • Significant fertiliser type x soil pH interaction • Significant negative effect of soil CEC • Only for U ORIGINAL 7 AARHUS UNIVERSITY Results REVISED 8 AARHUS UNIVERSITY Results • Significant differences between urea (U), fertilisers with urea (U+) and fertilisers without urea (U-) • Significant postive effect of soil pH • Significant fertiliser type x soil pH interaction • Significant negative effect of soil CEC • Only for U • Significant effect of temperature • Correlation between temperature and soil moisture? 9 AARHUS UNIVERSITY Results • Significant differences between urea (U), fertilisers with urea (U+) and fertilisers without urea (U-) • Significant postive effect of soil pH • Significant fertiliser type x soil pH interaction • Significant negative effect of soil CEC • Only for U • Significant effect of temperature • Correlation between temperature and soil moisture? • Strong negative effect of rainfall intensity 10 AARHUS UNIVERSITY Examples • pH 7, soil CEC 20 meq/100g • Strasbourg: • March: 6º C, rainfall intensity 1.2 mm/day = 12% (U), 12% (U+), 3% (U-) • June: 17º C, rainfall intensity 2.5 mm/day = 13% (U), 13% (U+), 4% (U-) • Florence: • February: 7º C, rainfall intensity 2.5 mm/day = 6% (U), 7% (U+), 2% (U-) • June: 22º C, rainfall intensity 1.8 mm/day = 18% (U), 19% (U+), 6% (U-) • Current emission factors: • pH ≤ 7 U 21%, U+ 11 to 16%, U- 1 to 9% • pH >7 U 21%, U+ 11 to 16%, U- 1 to 25% 11 AARHUS UNIVERSITY Development of Tiered methodologies • Develop Tier 3 • Use Tier 3 to develop Tier 2 • Use Tier 2 to develop Tier 1 12 AARHUS UNIVERSITY Tier 3 methodology • Use a model that accounts for: • Fertiliser type (U, U+, U-) • Soil pH and soil CEC • Temperature and rainfall intensity • Need to know how much of each type of fertiliser used on which soil types (pH and CEC) and when (temperature and rainfall intensity): • Parties wishing to use this Tier 3 need these data • For Tier 2, make assumptions 13 AARHUS UNIVERSITY Tier 2 methodology • Use agro-ecological zones 14 AARHUS UNIVERSITY Tier 2 methodology in practice • Divide land area between agro-ecological zones (AEZ) • Partition each AEZ into areas with soil pH >7 and pH ≤ 7 • For Europe, use European Soil Database • Partition each AEZ x soil pH area between crop types (“grass + double cropping” or “all other crops”) • For Europe, JRC resources? • For each fertiliser type, partition the national amount used between the different AEZ x soil pH x crop combinations in proportion to their contribution to the total land area. • Use the emission factor for each AEZ x soil pH x crop combination to calculate the ammonia emission • Sum the ammonia emissions from each AEZ x soil pH x crop combination to calculate the total ammonia emission 15 AARHUS UNIVERSITY Land area AEZ 2 AEZ 1 pH>7 Grass Other crops pH≤ 7 Grass Other crops pH>7 Grass pH≤ 7 Other Grass crops Other crops Partition each fertiliser type to these areas Multiply by the emission factor specified for each area 16 AARHUS UNIVERSITY Tier 2 methodology emission factors (1) • Obtain mean daily air temperature and monthly rainfall for 5-6 locations within each AEZ • Calculate mean rainfall intensity per location • Estimate start of the growing season • For grass, start is monthly air temperature >=6ºC, for other crops, >=8ºC • Estimate end of the growing season for grass • Monthly air temperature <6ºC 17 AARHUS UNIVERSITY Tier 2 methodology emission factors (2) • For grass, assume fertiliser is applied at the start of every full 6 week of the growing season • Calculate application dates • Calculate air temperature and rainfall intensity at these dates • Use Tier 3 model to calculate emission factors for each date • Calculate the average emission factor • For other crops, assume fertiliser is applied at the start of the growing season and then 6 weeks later • Repeat procedure as for grass 18 AARHUS UNIVERSITY Tier 1 methodology • • • • Fertiliser consumption by type is available for all countries (FAO) Assume that 50% of the land has a soil pH ≤ 7, 50% >7 Assume that the grass:other crop area is 50:50 Calculate an emission factor specific for the U, U+, U- types 19 AARHUS UNIVERSITY Conclusions • Data in scientific literature allows a Tier 3 methodology to be developed • Dataset is unbalanced (not all important variables measured in all experiments) • Data from commonly-used low-emission fertilisers (e.g. CAN) are under-represented • Data from commonly-used high-emission fertilisers (e.g. urea) are over-represented • Aggregation of data from different fertiliser types was necessary • Additional, standardised and balanced measurement experiments are required • Focus on commonly-used fertiliser types • Focus on most important variables • Further work required to complete development of Tier methodologies 20
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