Study of Future Demand for
Radio Spectrum in Canada
2011 - 2015
Dawood Khan
Spectrum 2020 - Ottawa
June 19 2012
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Spectrum Demand Study – The Most
Elaborate Study of its Kind Globally !
Industry Canada Wireless Services
OBJECTIVES:
•  Forecast future radio spectrum
demand in 52 MHz to 38 GHz from
2011 - 2015
•  Supplements the Radio Spectrum
Inventory Report 2011 – 2015
•  Covers 15 Service Categories
•  Partnered with PA Consulting to
leverage UK Demand Study
experience
High
Value
Services
1. 
2. 
3. 
4. 
5. 
Cellular
Fixed Wireless Access (FWA)
Backhaul Microwave Facilities
Broadcasting
Satellite
Other
Services
6. 
7. 
8. 
9. 
10. 
11. 
12. 
13. 
14. 
15. 
Land-Mobile
Public Safety
Amateur Radio
Aeronautical
Maritime
Military
Radiodetermination
Space Science
Consumer Devices, &
Medical Devices
The spectrum demand report is NOT meant to dictate government
policy nor assess the situation of any specific stakeholder.
Wireless is Enabling such Rapid Change in
Society that 5 Years can be an Infinite
Amount of Time for Some Sectors !
Proven Methodology used to
Determine Spectrum Demand – 81
Iterations to Address Subtleties !
Stakeholders
Environmental Scan
& Questionnaires
Actual Usage Data
Interviews
Market Sizing & Activity
Primary Research
Research
Market &
Service
Demand
Forecast
Secondary Research
Spectrum
Demand Adhoc
Analysis
(Other
Services)
Spectrum
Demand
Modelling &
Forecast (High
Value)
Sense
Check &
Remodel
Spectrum
Demand
Service, Subscriber
& Traffic Forecast / Channel Use
Industry Canada
Inventory Report
2011-2015
Market Size and
Deployments by
Service Providers
across Applications,
Technologies,
Bands, Device
Distribution, Etc.
Dec 2010
Research Sources:
GSMA
CWTA
Cisco VNI
Other market
research
Criteria for Spectrum Usage influence
-Traffic Distribution Across Technologies
-Spectral Efficiencies
-Mix of UL/DL Trends and Traffic
-WiFi/Small-cell Offload
-Cell/Sector Counts Across Technologies, Bands,
Service Providers
-Geographic Distributions
-Spectrum Usage & Availability (Paired, Unpaired,
Channel Bandwidths, etc.)
Number of Service Providers Per Area
-Etc.
Refine Market Data
and Forecasts
(Up to 81 Iterations)
Dec 2011
High Value Services - Three Different
Scenarios Considered
Business-as-usual
This is the scenario that we would consider to be a plausible extrapolation of
past trends in Canada.
Wire-free World (Aggressive Growth)
1. 
2. 
3. 
Faster than anticipated progression of wireless communications
Demand grows faster than BAU
Slightly faster adoption rate of new technology
Low Investment (Infrastructure)
1. 
2. 
3. 
Appetite for technology somewhat abates
Networks, operators and even consumers are unable or unwilling to invest
in infrastructure and technology at projected rate of BAU
New Licenses and release of spectrum slower than anticipated
While the Demand for Spectrum is
Growing in Most Services, some are
Experiencing Unprecedented Growth
2010
2011
2012
2013
Cellular
2014
2015
Additional Spectrum
Considered for
Operational Realities
FWA Point-to-Multipoint
FWA Point-to-Point
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
MHz
Backhaul
Broadcasting
Satellite (Fixed)
Satellite (Mobile)
-1000
BAU Spectrum Demand
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
MHz
Traffic Demand Driven by Insatiable
Appetite for the Coolest Devices &
most Engaging User-Experience
Mobile Subscribers by Device Type
40000000
Monthly Data Traffic of Fixed Mobile
Substitution
Over 60% of mobile devices will be
broadband-enabled by 2015
30000
35000000
MB/Mo
30000000
10000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
25000000
20000000
15000000
Monthly Data Traffic of Other Device Types
10000000
5000000
0
(C2) No. of Mobile HC BB Laptops, Dongles, etc.
(C1) No. of Mobile HC BB Tablets & similar devices
(B) No. of high-end Smartphones
(A) No. of entry Smartphones
Non-Broadband Devices
8000
MB/Mo
Number of Mobile Subscribers
20000
6000
4000
2000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(A) Entry Smartphones
(B) High-end Smartphones
[C] Highest Capacity Mobile BB (dongles, tablets, etc.)
Cellular : Traffic Demand Expected to
Increase 30x Between 2010 - 2015 –
Mostly carried over HSPA/LTE
Cellular Mobile Data Traffic Demanded
GB/Mo
150
100
Overall Cellular Data (voice, data & messaging) to Grow
from 4PB to almost 75PB by 2015
BAU
WFW
LOWINV
50
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
LTE Volume will Grow Exponentially to Meet Traffic Demand
LOG SCALE
Spectral Efficiency Factors of Various Cellular Technologies (2010 > 2015)
2G-GSM
2.5G – EDGE
3G – WDCMA (UTMS)
3.5G –HSPA
4G – LTE
2G – CDMA
2.5G – CDMA 1xRTT
3G-3.5G EV-DO (incl. Rev. A)
0.06 > 0.06
0.11 > 0.11
0.3 > 0.92
0.68 > 1.01
1.3 > 1.4
0.17 > 0.17
0.34 > 0.41
0.68 > 1.01
Cellular Spectrum Demand with
Operational Realities is 300-500 MHz
1. Just for busy hour traffic (and acceptable QoS)
2. After applying min channel widths
3. After applying timing rules, as well as min channel widths
Business as Usual
Wire-Free World
Low Investment
Operational Considerations include allowance for channel widths, timing of growth
in traffic, and headroom for operators to transition to new technologies, etc.
FWA: P2M Spectrum Demand Grows to
350 MHz; P2P Grows to 800 MHz
GB/Mo
80
60
40
FWA Application using Fixed
WiMAX and LTE/HSPA used in P2M
analysis.
BAU
WFW
LOW INV
20
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Mobile Application using LTE/HSPA
accounted for in Cellular Services
Demand for FWA Spectrum P2M
FWA P2P Spectrum Demand
1400
1200
1000
MHz
100
Services in the 2500 MHz Band
FWA P2M Offered Traffic/Sub
800
600
400
200
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Backhaul Microwave: Demand Driven
by Growth in FWA and Cellular Traffic
Backhaul Microwave Traffic Demand
150
BAU
100
WFW
LOW INV
50
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Microwave Backhaul Spectrum – Division and Demand Forecast
4000
3500
3000
Spectrum Demand to
Increase from 800 MHz to
2500 MHz
2500
MHz
GB/Month
200
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Broadcasting: Spectrum Demand will
Almost Double - Driven by DTV over
Satellite (Broadcasting Satellite)
OTA TV
Radio
Digital TV over Satellite
OTA and Radio Spectrum Congested, DTV over Satellite to Drive Spectrum Demand Growth
Broadcasting Spectrum Demand
Spectrum Demand to
Increase from 900 MHz
to 1700 MHz
3000
2500
MHz
2000
BAU
1500
WFW
1000
LOW INV
500
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Satellite Communications: Fixed, unlike
Mobile Sat., Experiences Pressure due to
Limited Technology Enhancements
Fixed Satellite
8000
Newer Satellites will
Greatly Enhance
Spectral Efficiencies
120
Demand to explode
from 900 MHz to 5100
MHz
7000
100
6000
MHz x Orbital Slots
MHz x Orbital Slots
Mobile Satellite
5000
4000
3000
2000
80
BAU
60
WFW
LOW INV
40
20
1000
0
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Mobile Satellite
Increase in subscribers will be offset by spectral efficiency gains from 1G to 3G improvement
Fixed Broadband Satellite
Subscriber and traffic growth will not be addressed by spectral efficiency enhancements
Other Services: Adhoc Analysis Shows
Varying Degrees of Spectrum Congestion
Land-Mobile Services
Public Safety Services
Amateur Radio
Aeronautical Services
Maritime Services
Adhoc Analysis - Some Areas of Interest
Congested or Approaching Congestion:
•  LMR & PS: UHF, VHF, and 800 MHz bands
•  Aero: UHF, VHF, & SHF bands (ITU/ICAO, 10+ year)
•  Consumer: Localized congestion in 900, 2400 MHz
Military
Radio Determination Services
Areas Expected/Starting to Exhibit Pressure:
Space Science Communication
Consumer Devices
Medical Devices
•  Amateur: 144-148/430-450 MHz bands
•  Military: AMT Services (NATO, NORAD commitments)
•  Space: 2 GHz band (Ops); 5 & 8 MHz band (Earth Exp)
Insights & Questions
Please Arrange a Private Consultation to
Discuss Important Insights & Potential
Impact to your Organization
Contact Dawood Khan:
[email protected]
Tel: 905-479-0080 x 112
8901 Woodbine Avenue , Suite 210
Markham, Ontario L3R 9Y4
Canada
www.redmobileco.com
Additional Information
http://www.itu.int/ITU-R/index.asp?category=study-groups&rlink=rcpm-wrc-15-studies&lang=en#{5B6B8397-2479-4D7F-B68D-6F107AD3C305}
The Spectrum Demand Study:
Positioning Canada as a Global Leader
Places Canada in a Global Leadership position for its contribution to
International commitments - ITU, CITEL, etc.
ITU WRC 15 – Agenda Item 1.1
“…to consider additional spectrum allocations to the mobile
service on a primary basis and identification of additional
frequency bands for International Mobile
Telecommunications (IMT) and related regulatory
provisions, to facilitate the development of terrestrial
mobile broadband applications, in accordance with
Resolution 233 (WRC-12)”
http://www.itu.int/ITU-R/index.asp?category=study-groups&rlink=rcpm-wrc-15-studies&lang=en#{5B6B8397-2479-4D7F-B68D-6F107AD3C305}
Broadband Radio Service Spectrum
The 2500-2690MHz BRS is being rearranged for mobile use, with
allowance for fixed broadband use in part of the spectrum.
In regards to the Spectrum Demand Study, forecasts accounting for
future BRS spectrum usage due for reassignment were classified based
on distinct services operating in the 2500-2690 MHz band:
Included in the FWA Study
•  FWA services using Fixed WiMAX or any non-cellular technology
•  FWA Services using LTE/HSPA
Included in the Cellular Study
•  Mobile Services using LTE/HSPA Technologies
Other Services – Public Safety
Public Safety Services
Land-Mobile Services
Public Safety Services
Amateur Radio
Aeronautical Services
Maritime Services
Military
Pressure Points:
•  Frequencies are fully occupied and assigned in
most large cities (150, 450 and 800 MHz).
• 
Critical Mobile Communications along the border
need to be established and expanded.
Radio Determination Services
Space Science Communication
Consumer Devices
Medical Devices
The 700 MHz allocation to
Public Safety Services is expected to aid in
alleviating crucial interoperability issues between
first responders agencies.
Pressure Points
Land-Mobile Services
Public Safety Services
Amateur Radio
Aeronautical Services
Maritime Services
Military
Radio Determination Services
Space Science Communication
Consumer Devices
Medical Devices
Land Mobile
• 
68% of Land-Mobile Spectrum in 150/450/800 MHz
bands which are are fully occupied.
•  However, the number of subscribers on the
commercial (iDEN-based) ESMR system has
been steadily declining with the gradual
migration of users to advanced cellular
networks.
Pressure Points
Aeronautical Services
Land-Mobile Services
Public Safety Services
• 
Amateur Radio
Aeronautical Services
Maritime Services
Military
Radio Determination Services
Space Science Communication
• 
• 
• 
Consumer Devices
Medical Devices
• 
There is high usage in bands 108-137 MHz and 328-335 MHz in
certain areas where spectrum has started to experience some
congestion for all services. This is the case for the TorontoMontreal cross-section, where the spectrum is saturated due to the
close vicinity to the Northeastern U.S. aviation corridor;
The band 108-11.975 MHz, available for ILS localizer frequencies,
is lacking particularly in dense cities
Congestion in VHF communications band 117.975-137 MHz used
at all airports;
The need for additional MATS/AMT spectrum to supplement the 40
MHz in the band 2360-2400 MHz was raised by two users.
Industry Canada has initiated public processes, as outlined in
section 6.9.3, to consider additional spectrum for MATS/AMT;
Systems and applications in the 960-5150 MHz range needing
additional frequencies are:
•  Distance-measurement equipment (DME) in the band
992-1024 MHz;
•  Secondary-surveillance radars in the band 1030-1090 MHz;
and
•  New generation of surveillance systems in the band
5000-5150 MHz
Pressure Points
Military Services
Land-Mobile Services
Public Safety Services
• 
Amateur Radio
Aeronautical Services
Maritime Services
Military
• 
Radio Determination Services
Space Science Communication
Consumer Devices
Medical Devices
• 
• 
There is increasing demand for a small amount of
spectrum designated for MATS/AMT in the band
2360-2400 MHz by DND, the aerospace manufacturing
industry and public safety. The existing MATS/AMT
spectrum will not accommodate all the needs over the
next five years;
Demand for spectrum, which supports obstacle collisionavoidance systems for towers and windmills, is expected
to increase in the 1240-1340 MHz band. However, the
low-power operation of these collision-warning systems
will not likely impact the primary use of this band for
radiodetermination service;
Radar systems (weather and military) will be modernized
within existing bands. However, these new radar systems
will be more sensitive to radio services operating in
adjacent bands;
No additional spectrum need has been identified for UAV
for the 2010-2015 period.
Pressure Points
Space Science Communication
Land-Mobile Services
Public Safety Services
• 
Amateur Radio
Aeronautical Services
Maritime Services
• 
Military
Radio Determination Services
Space Science Communication
• 
Consumer Devices
Medical Devices
• 
Space operation spectrum is needed in the
2100/2200 MHz bands to provide data links and
TT&C links for small research satellites and for
RADARSAT operation
Continued spectrum at 5 and 8 GHz must be
protected for existing and future RADARSAT
satellites.
The opening of the Northwest Passage, due to the
melting of the Arctic ice, and the Canadian
Government activities in the North, will increase the
demand for space science satellite missions
(communication, weather report and traffic
surveillance) in these remote areas.
The decline in activities at the international space
station may free some spectrum for new space
science activities
Pressure Points
Land-Mobile Services
Consumer Devices
Public Safety Services
Amateur Radio
Aeronautical Services
Maritime Services
• 
• 
Military
Radio Determination Services
Space Science Communication
Consumer Devices
Medical Devices
• 
The greatest number of consumer devices use the
900 & 2400 MHz bands
2400 & 5800 MHz bands are being used for Wi-Fi
systems and embedded chips in consumer devices
Congesting occurs at Wi-Fi hotspots established in
areas of high congregation (conference centres,
airport, etc.).