This is a Connect West report
14.0
How do we see the future?
14.1
Introduction
A necessary requirement for the western Brisbane
transport network and the preferred strategy network is to
fit into a longer-term land use and transport vision.
The vision for the future contains key outcomes gleaned
from stakeholder and community feedback which would
require some important changes to the way we go about
planning for the region as defined in the current Regional
Plan. These outcomes are described in this chapter
and are fundamental to meeting the vision for western
Brisbane:
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The population is projected to grow by approximately 25
per cent to 2056 with an additional 1.34 million people
to be accommodated within the region to reach a total
of 5.3 million residents. In terms of employment, it was
projected that total employment numbers would grow
by approximately 31 per cent by 2056 which would
equate to an additional 635,000 jobs (growing to a total
employment pool of 2 million).
According to the 2056 demographic data set, western
Brisbane would need to accommodate a total population
of approximately 543,000 people, which is a growth
of about 120,000 people (22 per cent) over 2026
population. With regards to employment, western
Brisbane would accommodate an additional 33,000 jobs,
with an employment growth of 21 per cent.
Denser land use;
Transit oriented development;
More walk/cycle;
Higher public transport use;
Strategic road network hierarchy;
Rail as the backbone of the public transport network;
Shorter average trip lengths;
More affordable housing;
More affordable transport;
Lower congestion;
Protected natural resources;
Improved accessibility; and
Reduced freight costs.
In light of the rapid growth within SEQ, these population
projections were considered to be very conservative.
A 2056 demographic vision of an additional 500,000
residents across western Brisbane was therefore also
explored, i.e. a total potential population of 1 million west
and north-west of the Brisbane CBD between Moggill and
Strathpine.
A ‘Beyond 2026’ workshop was held with key government
stakeholders to develop a shared vision for potential
prospective development patterns beyond the forecast
year of 2026 of the Regional Plan. The Mt. Lindesay
Beaudesert Strategic Transport Network Investigation
(MLBSTNI) was identified as a projected 2056
demographic profile for the western Brisbane area. It is
recognised that such a basis will change over time.
The land use scenarios used for the MLBSTNI built upon
the medium series trend 2026 demographics contained in
the Regional Plan. The continuation of the medium series
trend projections (i.e. based on an annual growth of 1.26
per cent) was used to develop the 2056 demographic
data. The chosen data set represented a consolidated
compact urban settlement pattern.
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Department of Transport and Main Roads, Basis of Strategy Report, 2009
This is a Queensland Government study
Western Brisbane
Transport Network Investigation
Basis of Strategy Report
May 2009
14.2
Land use vision beyond 2026
The strategic development opportunities of western
Brisbane have been largely overlooked and neglected
over the past 20 years or so, as development has been
taking place at the metropolitan fringe spurred on by
planned low density land development, relatively lower
cost housing and lower transport costs.
The region has spread considerably over the last 20 years
at the expense of development opportunities closer to
the Brisbane CBD. At the same time the population of the
SEQ region has reached 2.6 million people. The resulting
low density development pattern and trend in increasing
average trip lengths on the regional transport network is
not sustainable, particularly as we are certain to now have
to live in a future of increasing transport costs, including
the increasing costs of road congestion and peak oil.
By 2056 the region’s population is expected to reach
over 5 million which would mean at least a doubling
over the next 40 years. Western Brisbane offers major
opportunities for growth and closer access to the CBD for
many more people to live and work.
The land use vision for ‘Beyond 2026’ projects that the
western Brisbane area would develop through a network
of integrated, mixed use, high density transport nodes
and activity centres that facilitate land use and transport
integration. The environmental values of the region
are recognised, protecting the areas of environmental
significance.
The Urban Footprint, defined within the Regional Plan,
delineates the areas that are to be utilised for urban
development and the areas that are to be conserved to
2026. The 2026 urban footprint has been considered for
the 2056 vision and through densification the footprint
can be maintained. There are areas of growth potential
in fringe areas of the footprint that could provide
opportunities for future urban development, but these
would be exceptions. One such exception would be the
potential for expansion of the urban footprint in the area
to the south of Mt. Crosby Road, utilising the existing
University of Queensland Moggill Farm site and greenfield
areas in this location.
The vision recognises that to accommodate the projected
population for the western Brisbane area, densification
across the existing urban area would need to occur. Land
use density would be consistently increased across the
urban footprint area with intensification and development
concentrated around key transport nodes and activity
centres, forming a polycentric urban land use pattern.
Transport nodes and activity centres would be integral
as high density, mixed use developments that support
employment and residential land uses. These nodes and
centres would be located next to, or incorporate, high
quality, high frequency public transport connections.
Transport nodes and activity centres would form a
network of interconnected hubs that would provide a
focus for residential and employment land use whilst also
catering for day-to-day services.
In developing this vision, consideration has been given to
the 2056 demographics which project significant growth
within SEQ and the western Brisbane area. Whilst the
demographic data identifies that population growth to
2056 would be significant, it is considered that this data
is conservative and has underestimated the potential
growth. As a result, future planning needs to consider a
higher population growth which would work towards a
future proofing of the current planning provisions.
Department of Transport and Main Roads, Basis of Strategy Report, 2009
This is a Queensland Government study
243
This is a Connect West report
There are development opportunities in western Brisbane
far beyond the Regional Plan which would be supported
by new planning principles in line with current thinking in
respect to:
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Denser living;
Affordable urban housing;
Greater use of passenger rail and development of
new activity centres; and
Transit oriented developments (TODs) around major
rail and busway stations.
Market-driven employment would continue to grow
in the Brisbane CBD and surrounding areas such as
Fortitude Valley, Bowen Hills, Milton, South Bank and
Woolloongabba and would need to be supplied with
improved inner city rail and bus transport to support the
distribution of trips across the CBD and frame. This is
outside the scope of the study.
There are environmental constraints to developing
western Brisbane because of the topography (D’Aguilar
Ranges), natural resources (Brisbane State Forest,
water catchment management) and the Brisbane River.
Looking beyond 2026 provides some real opportunities
for new activity centres in western Brisbane such as
Kenmore, Ferny Grove, Enoggera, Aspley, Albany Creek
and Strathpine. Key areas with opportunities for land use
change include Pinjarra Hills, Moggill and Warner.
Key activity centres that are projected to develop
beyond 2026 include Chermside, Mitchelton, Toowong,
Indooroopilly and Goodna. The activity centres identified
are consistent with the Principal and Major Activity
Centres proposed for western Brisbane within the SEQ
Regional Plan. These centres are anticipated to develop
further to the year 2056 and would be supported by high
quality public transport connections.
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In addition to the activity centres, there are also a number
of transport nodes that would be developed along high
frequency, reliable, public transport corridors. Aspley and
Strathpine would form important transport nodes to the
north, supported by rail and bus linkages. Key strategies
that would support the development and viability of these
centres could be a new rail line connecting Caboolture
and Ferny Grove lines (possibly along the preserved North
West Transport Corridor). Land use surrounding these
nodes would form a dense concentration of mixed use
development aimed at increasing the accessibility and
patronage of public transport services.
Ferny Grove and Alderley would also develop as transport
nodes to 2056. These nodes would be integrated with
high frequency rail linkages along the Ferny Grove rail line
and support the Activity Centre at Mitchelton. Alderley
would also be supported by bus links along Kelvin Grove
Road and South Pine Road – Old Northern Road which will
further promote the junction as a vibrant transport hub.
Along the Ipswich rail line, Milton, Wacol, Redbank and
North Ipswich would be identified as transport nodes.
Land use development at these locations would be
facilitated through the provision of increased capacity
along the Ipswich rail line. The transport node at Darra
would be located at an important rail interchange where
the Springfield rail connection will branch off the Ipswich
line. Darra station would become a key transport junction
for commuters travelling to Ipswich, Springfield and
Brisbane centres.
Brisbane City would remain a key employment centre
for SEQ, although decentralisation of employment is
encouraged beyond 2026. A key direction of the beyond
2026 vision is that employment generating land uses
would be located at centres, transport nodes and key
employment locations (employment centres), locating
employment closer to residential areas. The beyond
2026 vision identified a number of employment centres
including Strathpine, Australia TradeCoast, Darra-OxleyWacol area, Dinmore and Ipswich.
Department of Transport and Main Roads, Basis of Strategy Report, 2009
This is a Queensland Government study
Western Brisbane
Transport Network Investigation
Basis of Strategy Report
May 2009
The northern employment centre would integrate with the
Strathpine transport node. By integrating the employment
centre and the transport node, greater accessibility to this
node would be facilitated.
Employment centre development would also be located
within the Western Corridor along the Ipswich Motorway.
Locations for employment centre development are
projected to include the Oxley Wedge (encompassing
Pallara, Heathwood and Larapinta) through to Darra and
Wacol. Within Ipswich, the Ipswich City Centre and an area
south of the Ipswich Motorway in Dinmore are indicated
as Employment Centres.
The Australia TradeCoast, whilst not within western
Brisbane, would become one of the most important
Employment Centres for SEQ prior to and beyond 2026.
This would develop as a major employment focus for the
region, incorporating development at the Port of Brisbane
and Brisbane Airport.
Department of Transport and Main Roads, Basis of Strategy Report, 2009
This is a Queensland Government study
245
This is a Connect West report
14.3
Transport vision beyond 2026
Looking beyond 2026, western Brisbane could
accommodate an additional 500,000 people and 300,000
jobs compared with 2026. This would enable the region
to achieve shorter average trip lengths and use of more
sustainable transport modes. This would require:
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A much higher capacity public transport network;
A complete road network without missing links;
An extensive cycleway network; and
Ongoing use of private and freight vehicles, albeit
running on fuel other than oil.
It is reasonable to assume that in 20 to 50 years time
higher transport costs would be the norm which could
result in less trip-making for some trip purposes, shorter
trip lengths, and very high public transport and active
transport mode share.
New transport links would need to be built to serve a
more efficient western Brisbane and SEQ region which
could include consideration of:
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A rail spur line between Alderley and Strathpine;
A busway to Albany Creek from Everton Park;
New inner city distribution line (bus or light rail)
serving the much larger CBD and frame;
New CBD rail tunnels under, or bridges across the
Brisbane River from the south to the CBD; and
Additional north-south road capacity west of CBD.
With an expected regional population of over 5 million
beyond 2026, the performance of the 2026 western
Brisbane road network could decline and the demand for
travel between the Western Corridor and the north could
significantly increase. This would necessitate looking
at alternative transport solutions. Before investigating
a new corridor west of Mt. Coot-tha, more efficient use
of the existing corridor through application of new
communications and vehicle technology, and demand
management along the Centenary Motorway and Milton
Road would be warranted. While the latter would be very
difficult due to topographic and land use constraints,
the former would in turn instigate land use changes and
possible expansion of the urban footprint, if that was
desired. A west of Mt. Coot-tha Bypass would also require
access routes from the south-west and the north-west,
with the opportunity to utilise the preserved corridors of
Moggill Pocket and Samford Valley Sub-Arterials.
The link would not be required unless there were major
land use changes to the south of Brisbane.
Figure 14.1 presents one possible vision for western
Brisbane capturing sustainable, effective and efficient
urban development principles with a high capacity
transport network.
The intention of the 2056 vision for western Brisbane is
to move the SEQ region towards a more sustainable and
compact urban form, one which public transport could
support at an affordable cost to users and government.
The rail spur between the Ferny Grove and Caboolture
lines could potentially use part of the existing preserved
North West Transport Corridor and support a population
increase and land use vision for 2056.
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Department of Transport and Main Roads, Basis of Strategy Report, 2009
This is a Queensland Government study