Flattening the Duck
Dynamic Grid Solutions for Integrating Renewables
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December 16, 2013
The California ISO Duck Chart (2012 – 2020)
13,100 MW
5-8pm
5,300 MW
8-11am
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Potential
over-generation
2
CAISO Duck Chart (2020 Issues)
13,100 MW
5-8pm
5,300 MW
8-11am
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Potential
over-generation
3
Flatten the Duck – Import/Export
Import/Export
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4
Flatten the Duck – Curtail Baseload Generation
Rather than address over-generation with more natural gas generation, California can
strategically plan maintenance on baseload plants during shoulder months.
Source: CAISO Summer
Loads and Resources
Assessment
CAISO planned outages ranged up to 7000 MW per weekday in the summer of 2012.
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5
Flatten the Duck – Demand Response
Demand Response
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6
Addressing the Duck Chart with Energy Storage
Energy Storage
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7
Addressing the Duck Chart with Curtailment
Curtailment
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8
Flattening the Duck: All Solutions
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9
Back-up Slides
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Import/Export Assumptions
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11
Import/Export Assumptions
2012 Peak Daily
ISO Imports =
~11,500 MW
Source: CAISO 2013 Summer Loads & Resources Assessment (May 6, 2013)
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12
Demand Response Assumptions
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13
Energy Storage Assumptions
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14
Curtailment Assumptions
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15
CAISO Duck Chart (2020 vs. 2013)
Highest net load:
25,000 MW at 8pm
Lowest net load:
11,700 MW
around 1pm
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16
Natural Gas Plants Have Integration Costs
Renewables have predictable variability. Fossil fuel power plants often shut down
unexpectedly, forcing energy consumers to foot the bill for reserves and frequency response.
Source: CAISO Summer
Loads and Resources
Assessment
More than half of the outages associated with conventional generation are unplanned.
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17