SHIFTING POPULATIONS
What events have the most significant impacts on the populations of cities?
Task
For this project, you will explore the effect of historical events on a city in the United States.
Each student will examine factors that may have significantly influenced population change,
create mathematical models of the changing populations, analyze and make predictions
based on models, and defend and contextualize predictions using historical knowledge.
Your finished project must be between 800 and 1200 words excluding the following
components:
 Maps, charts, diagrams, annotated illustrations and tables
 Equations, formulas and calculations
 Bibliography
 Appendices
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10A
Las Vegas, Nevada (Jessica)
Jacksonville, Florida (Giorgos)
Indianapolis, Indiana (Marianna)
San Francisco, California (Amit)
Nashville, Tennessee (Evan)
Albuquerque, New Mexico
Charlotte, North Carolina (Ilyas)
Detroit, Michigan (Timur)
Atlanta, Georgia (Caleb)
Memphis, Tennessee (Callisto)
Boston, Massachusetts (Andreas)
New Orleans, Louisiana (Henry)
Milwaukee, Wisconsin (Stefano)
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10B
New York City, New York
(Achilleas)
Los Angeles, California (Mia)
Chicago, Illinois (Anastasia)
Houston, Texas (Marc)
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
(Orestis)
Phoenix, Arizona (Alina)
Seattle, Washington (Karim)
Denver, Colorado (Stephano)
Dallas, Texas (Adilet)
Portland, Oregon
History Preparation
Part 1 – Preliminary Research
1. Choose your city from the list.
2. Use Encyclopedia Britannica to identify 8 significant events that occurred in that city
that you think may be related to a national event (examples of national events:
Prohibition, World War I, The Great Migration). You will select 2 events within each
of the following date ranges:
 1880 – 1900
 1900 - 1929
 1929 – 1941
 1942 – 1960
*Note* These events must relate to major public works projects, economic shifts,
industrial changes, laws, or political events
3. Complete the chart to organize your research
Part 2 – In-depth Research
1. Working with Dr. Jonsson, narrow your events down to 4 events to research more indepth. You will select one event within each of the following date ranges:
 1880 – 1900
 1900 - 1929
 1929 – 1941
 1942 – 1960
2. Locate 3 different sources related to each event (Encyclopedia Britannica may be one)
3. Take notes from each source using the provided note-taking forms. Include properly
formatted MLA references.
Final Assignment
Draft Due: Tuesday, May 17
Final Draft: Friday, May 27
You will submit an essay that relates your historical research to your predictive models in an
effort to answer the question: What events have the most significant impacts on the
populations of cities?
Paper Sections and Guidelines:
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Title
o The title should provide a clear indication of the focus of the paper. It should
be precise.
Introduction
o Must include a thesis statement (overall argument) that makes an argument
and shows a combination of math data and historical research
o Explains the kinds of sources used and a brief explanation of why those
sources are useful to your research.
Predicted Population Change from 1941 – 1960
o Explanation of your initial prediction for population change from 1941 - 1960.
o Describe in detail and explain your mathematical models using proper math
terminology and the justification for your predictions using your knowledge of
the history of your city.
o Use in-text citations where appropriate
Developed Argument
o Explain the extent to which population shifts in your city between 1880 and
1960 are related to (either as causes of effects of) the historical events that
you researched. Your explanation should use proper math terminology and
specific historical details.
o Use in-text citations where appropriate
Conclusion
o Make a prediction for future growth of your city using historical knowledge
and proper math terminology.
Works Cited
o MLA format
Appendix of Illustrations/Charts/Graphs
o Presentation and overall neatness are important.
o Graphs, diagrams and tables are effective only if they are clearly labelled and
can be interpreted with ease.
o The use of photographs and other images is acceptable only if they are
captioned and/or annotated and are used to illustrate a specific point made in
the paper.
o At a minimum, your paper will include the following graphs and tables
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Actual Population of your city from 1900-1929
Actual Population of your city from 1929-1941
Predictive linear and exponential models of population growth 19411960
Actual Population of your city from 1941-1960
Predictive model of your city’s population in the year 2050
PROJECT INSTRUCTIONS
Part 1 - Models 1880-1941
1. Create a spreadsheet, which includes population data for your city from 1880-1941
2. Calculate the average yearly absolute change during these years
3. Use this calculation to create a linear growth model
4. Calculate the average yearly percent change
5. Use this calculation to create an exponential growth model
6. Create graphs from your data
Part 2 – Analyze Data 1880-1941
1. Describe in detail (about 1 paragraph) the population changes represented in your
graphs in your city over the period 1880 – 1941
Part 3 – Synthesize Data 1880-1941
1. Examine your analysis and your historical research.
2. Answer the following question: "To what extent do the historical events you
researched explain population shifts in your city?" Your answer should be about 2
paragraphs.
Part 4 - Prediction Model 1941-1960
1. Using your knowledge of the history of your city, and your data from 1880-1941,
choose a linear or exponential model to predict your city's population in 1960.
2. Make a prediction by extending your spreadsheet and using your linear or
exponential equation. Indicate what your equation tells you that your city's
population should be in 1960.
3. Create a graph from your data.
4. Write one paragraph that describes in detail the population shifts you predict and
justify your predictions using your knowledge of the history of your city.
Part 5 – Actual Model 1941-1960
1. Add the actual population statistics to your graph. Compare your prediction to the
actual population of your city. Was it exactly correct?
2. Analyze the differences between your predication and what actually happened.
Consider where the difference could have come from. (1 paragraph)
Part 6 – Prediction 2050
1. Find out the current population of your city, and examine the trends over the years
since 1960.
2. Write a linear or exponential equation to help you predict how the population of
your city will change over the next 3 decades. Create a spreadsheet and graph to
illustrate your prediction for the population of your city in the year 2050.
3. Write a paragraph predicting likely possible future events that would support the
mathematical model you've created.
Assessment
A
B
C
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Introduction
 The thesis is easily identifiable,
sophisticated, and clear
 The method of investigation (sources
used) is clearly explained.
 The justification of the method
(explanation of the usefulness of sources)
is clear.
 The thesis is identifiable, but may be
slightly unclear, or lacking in
sophistication.
 The method of investigation (sources
used) is explained, but may lack clarity.
 The justification of the method
(explanation of the usefulness of sources)
may lack clarity.
Historical
Knowledge
o Developed
Argument
o Conclusion
 The essay demonstrates very good
historical knowledge of the topic studied.
 The essay demonstrates a adequate

historical knowledge and understanding of
the topic studied.
Reasoned Argument
 Ideas are presented clearly and in a logical  Ideas are presented in a logical and
o Introduction
and coherent manner. The essay succeed
coherent manner, and a reasoned
o Developed
in developing a reasoned and convincing
argument is developed in relation to the
Argument
argument in relation to the research
research question, but with some
o Conclusion
question
weaknesses.
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Difficult to identify thesis, or it may be
unclear (contains vague terms)
The method of the investigation
(sources used) may be difficult to
identify or is missing.
The justification of the method
(explanation of the usefulness of
sources) may be difficult to understand
or may be missing.
The essay demonstrates some historical
knowledge of the topic studied.
There is a limited or superficial attempt
to present ideas in a logical and
coherent manner, and to develop a
reasoned argument in reaction to the
research question.
Use of Language
Appropriate to the
Subject
o Introduction
o Predicted
Population
change
o Developed
Argument
o Conclusion
Application of
analytical and
evaluative skills
o Introduction
o Predicted
Population
change
o Developed
Argument
o Conclusion
Graphs and tables
o Appendix
o Predicated
Population
Change
o Developed
Argument
o Conclusion
 The language used communicates clearly
and precisely. Terminology (both
historical and mathematical) is used
accurately, with skill and understanding.
 The language used communicates clearly.
Terminology (both historical and
mathematical) is accurate, although there
may be occasional lapses.
 The essay shows effective and
sophisticated application of appropriate
analytical and evaluative skills
 The essay shows sound application of
appropriate analytical and evaluative skills
 All graphs and tables are complete
 All calculations are correct and reflect the
equations used
 Graphs are exceptionally clear and easy to
read
 A reader can quickly make sense of the
information
 Scale is chosen to make the graph very
clear
 Graphs have a clear title, and clear labels
for both axes.
 All graphs and tables are complete
 Graphs and tables are clear and readable
 A reader can make sense of the
information
 Scale is labeled on graphs
 Graph has a title and labels for both axes.
Units are labeled
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The language used sometimes
communicates clearly but does not do
so consistently. The use of terminology
(both historical and mathematical) is
only partially accurate.
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The essay shows some application of
appropriate analytical and evaluative
skills, which may be only partially
effective.
 Graphs and tables are present but it takes
some work to figure out what information
is communicated
 Scale is present on the graph, but it may
not be clear why that scale was chosen
 Graph has a title or labels for both axes.
 Not fully clear what graphs are
communicating
Conclusion
 An effective conclusion is clearly stated; it
is relevant to the research question and
consistent with the evidence presented in
the essay.
Formal Presentation
o Title
o Introduction
o Predicted
 The formal presentation is excellent with
Population
consistently correct usage of MLA
Change
standards, including a title page, in-text
o Developed
citations, and a works cited page.
Argument
o Conclusion
o Works Cited
o Appendix
 A conclusion is attempted that is relevant
to the research question but may not be
entirely consistent with the evidence
presented in the essay.
 Little attempt is made to provide a
conclusion that is relevant to the research
question.
 The formal presentation is good with few
 The formal presentation is poor with
mistakes in the usage of MLA standards,
mistakes in the usage of MLA standards,
including a title page, in-text citations, and
including a title page, in-text citations, and
a works cited page.
a works cited page.