Third International Seville Conference on
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):
Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making
16th- 17th October 2008
Joint horizon scanning
Victor van Rij
Netherlands Horizon scan team
Knowledge Directorate
Ministry of Education, Culture and Science
Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge
Joint Horizon scanning
Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge
Joint Horizon scanning
Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge
Joint Horizon scanning
Joint Foresight
•ERA Net For-society, exchange of know how, ultimate goal joint
foresight
•Investigation of barriers and advantages of joining foresight
•Search for similar foresight activities and willing partners
•Creative session of the Network --- horizon scanning most
promising candidate for joining foresight activities
•Broad scope; Less problems with agenda (opportunity :HS
activity in 3 countries more or less at the same time – many
countries potentially interested)
Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge
Joint Horizon scanning
Partners
•Horizon Scanning Centre UK / GOS
•Netherlands Horizon Scan COS / Ministry of Education, Culture
and Science
•Danish Horizon Scan / OECD-Danish Agency for Science
Technology and Innovation (DASTI)
•Maltese Council for Science and Technology (MCST)
•PREST
__________________
•Many interested institutions
Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge
Joint Horizon scanning
Objectives of the Pilot
•exchange experiences and know-how on horizon scanning at the
national level;
•compare working methods and methodologies used by the
different horizon scans and formulate recommendations for
improvement;
•compare basic data (lists of issues and issue descriptions) from
the horizon scans of the UK, Netherlands and Denmark;
•develop a model for continuous data sharing and comparison;
•formulate recommendations for the development of international
cooperation in horizon scanning, including how it can be used.
Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge
Joint Horizon scanning
Schedule of the Pilot
• Brainstorm with partners and interested institutions (March
19th 2007)
• Interviews with scan coordinators, representatives several
DG’s EC and interested institutions
• Development joint scan base and input data
• Pilot partner meeting October 2007
• Report to the For society Network November 2007
Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge
Joint Horizon scanning results
Working Methods of the different scans
•Different purposes (RD agenda – Public policy)
•Phases and a systematic approach
•Data gathering and selection / using implicit or explicit values
/as far as we can see , imagine/ categories
•Literature study complemented by expert panels/interviews
•Synthesis/analysis - clusters/scenario’s using creative group
thinking
•Use: Demand driven and supply approach
Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge
Joint Horizon scanning results
Working Methods of the different scans
•widen the scope for policy- and decision-makers
•provide the basis for resilient (cross-departmental) policies
•alert policy-makers to forgotten and emerging (new) risks and opportunities
•point out uncertainties, challenge dominant, implicit assumptions about the future
•stimulate decision-makers and their staff to use horizon scanning in decision-making on different
levels
•identify new challenging issues for policy, research, development and innovation;
•identify knowledge gaps
•identify possible inter linkages (enhancers, inhibitors, multipliers) between future issues
•identify new trans-disciplinary and policy domain crossing sets of issues
•deliver input to research and innovation, policy, public debate, and departmental policies,
•deliver information that can be used for priority-setting for future investments.
Netherlands horizon scanning in a nutshell
R&D agenda
2. Consultation of
national
International experts
Website
3. Identification
Problems and opportunities
List--P
-----------------
Lijst
--- O
-------------
Policy agenda
4. Evaluation and
Weighing of problems and
opportunities
1. Literature Study
5. Coupling of opportunities
and problems through creative
sessions and consultations
1
6. Formation of Clusters
and connections
domains + disciplines
7. Cluster descriptions
8. Essays per cluster
9. Knowledge and strategic
Questions per cluster
4
9
2
3
5
6
7
8
10
10. Report with
Recommendations for
Knowledge
and strategic
agenda
United Kingdom horizon scanning in a nutshell
OST
Horizon Scanning Centre
Sigma Scan development
Research
Phase
Scan the
scans
Categorise
data
Create the
E-database
Activity
Data
Analysis
Phase
Issue
analysis
and synthesis
Review
Phase
Extranet
Peer review
Discussion
groups
Workshop
Cross-linkages
With policy
Themed
Scenarios
Engagements
Updated
database
Finalised
Themed
Scenarios
Output
Delivery
Phase
Further
communication
events
Final
database
Reports and
multimedia
output
Society &
Public Policy
High Impact
Issues
New
material
OECD-DASTI Horizon scan
Opportunities/solutions :
Threats/problems from:
Human action/brainpower
Human action/environment
Education
With expected
large impact on
Social system
society:
Political, Government, legal,
COMMON
economy, finance
LONG TERM
Science & Technology
Other Systems
(infrastructures, production,
transport, ICT, energy,
industry, healthcare,
agriculture)
Physical environment
Natural resources from
(Outer) Space
Space
Sea and waters
DESIRES
& VALUES
Human:
Survival , Health
Welfare, wealth
Wellbeing
Democracy, law
Self-realization
Culture, ethics
Science, technology
Education
Social system
Political, Government, legal
Economy, finance
Systems (infrastructures,
production, transport, ICT,
energy, industry, health care,
agriculture)
Physical environment
Shortage/destruction/
(Outer) Space
Space
Sea and waters
Earth and soil
And Ecology,
Earth and soil
Atmosphere Climate
Ecosystem
Atmosphere climate
Living world
Biodiversity
Living world
Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge
Joint Horizon scanning conclusions
Explicit values Netherlands Horizonscan
• Biological dimension : Quality of life, Ecological Quality
• Social dimension : Social Quality
• Economic financial dimension: Economic Quality
• Governmental dimension : Juridical and Democratic Quality
• Cultural, ethical and intellectual dimension : Cultural, ethical
intellectual Quality
and
• Self realization of (future) citizens, freedom of individuals and of
religious and cultural expression
• Good neighborhood dimension : International relationship Quality
Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge
Joint Horizon scanning results
Joining data and comparison of contents
Comparison categories:
•Scans are using almost similar main categories
Joining the data:
•Using the Sigma scan database
Comparisons issues:
•Contents of the scans are strongly overlapping but also contain
unique issues, some issues are not present in 1 of the three scans
•Scans can therefore be considered as complementary
Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge
Joint Horizon scanning results
Joining data and comparison of contents
ategories
Netherlands
•Social context
United Kingdom
•Society Incl. Public services
Denmark
•Culture
•Work life
•People
•R&D and education
• Science &Technology
•Development
•Economical context/ Finance
• Economics
•Economy
•Physical environment
•Environment
•Nature
•Resources
•Political, administrative and legal
•Public services
• Politics
•State
•Global
UK categories
A
B 146 issues
C
DK headings
Combined categories
AaI
I
B b II
II 125 issues
C c III
III
NL domains
a
b 159 issues
c
total: approx
430 issues
Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge
Joint Horizon scanning results
Joining data and comparison of contents
Distribution of the selected issues over the main categories
United Kingdom
Denmark
Netherlands
total
Society
18,5
22,4
7,5
15,6
Science & technology
16,4
8,8
15,1
13,7
Economy/Finance
21,2
21,6
18,9
20,5
Environment/Ecology
13,7
15,2
23,3
17,7
Politics/Public services
30,1
32,0
35,2
32,6
146
125
159
430
Category
total number of issues
Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge
Joint Horizon scanning results
Positioning , role and impact
•Central positioning (UK, Netherlands, Denmark)
•Different assignments (cross departmental policies, R,D & I agenda
setting)
•Informing and stimulating other departments and levels of
governance and society (UK )
•Impact on R&D strategic agenda (Denmark, Netherlands)
•Sometimes the value of the scan is still underestimated, despite of the
central position
Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge
Joint Horizon scanning conclusions
Conclusions regarding the common database
•It is feasible to join the data for comparable analysis provided that we
discuss and agree on common coordinates
•Joining enriches the data and lends itself for the formulation of indepth scans but also for identification of emerging common challenges
•Issues have been selected according to implicit /explicit value sets
which differ per country. It is important to make the selection of issues
transparent (especially if this is outsourced)
•The UK sigma scan database could with some adaptation be used to
join the input from different countries
Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge
Joint Horizon scanning conclusions
Recommendations joint horizon scanning
•Enriching in depth , connecting with more detailed scans of domains
or issues, the role of scientific contributions
•Expansion in width, introducing scans from other angles, using more
(new) participatory approaches to collect data (through Weblogs, wikilike constructions etc) other countries but also OECD,ESF, IPTS etc
•Incorporating and connecting to different Users on the EC level
•Developing instruments for impact measurement /improvement
(Lead question: we know there is always impact , but is it effective? Do
we reach the real decision makers? Does it hits the right targets? Do
we increase the speed of reaction to future threats and
opportunities??? Do we create more sustainable and resilient Policies
by using HS?)
Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge
Joint Horizon scanning conclusions
Recommendations joint horizon scanning
Further cooperation could be directed to further development of
horizon scanning with focus on the following common aspects:
•Recognition and filtering of weak signals (for instance with the help of
web-bots)
•Dealing with complexity envisioning long term common challenges on
basis of the combined scans
•Widening stakeholder and HL decision makers involvement
•Overcome the dilemma of present day agenda vs long term strategy
(time for the future) , using boundary knowledge