Optimizing the Use of Spectrum Released by Incentive Auctions Chris Pearson, President, 4G Americas www.4gamericas.org 4th Annual Americas Spectrum Management Conference | November 12–13, 2014 | Washington Plaza Hotel | Washington D.C 4G Americas Board of Governors www.4gamericas.org 4G AMERICAS — AREAS OF CONTRIBUTION Technical Facilitation and Coordination Regulatory Policy www.4gamericas.org Educational Outreach 3 Global Mobile Connections Growth through 2019 Networks 9.2 Billion Connections 6.7 Billion Connections HSPA & HSPA+ = 556 LTE = 323 Source: 4G Americas Countries HSPA & HSPA+ = 203 LTE = 111 Source: 4G Americas Devices HSPA & HSPA+ = 6,000+ LTE = 1,889 Source: GSA, Sept 2014 2014 2015 2016 LTE TD-SCDMA 2017 2018 HSPA 2019 GSM CDMA Source: Ericsson Mobility Report, June 2014 www.4gamericas.org Global Connectivity Growth Connected Car 62% Wearables 78% M2M 24% Of new cars sold worldwide will have embedded connectivity by 2018 – Analysys Mason Annual increase forecast until 2018 – IDC Compound Annual Growth Rate until 2018 to reach 185 million units – Berg Insight www.4gamericas.org Traffic Growth for Voice and Data Key industry sources indicate growth from 26 to 58X by 2020 • Mobile traffic growth expected to continue at around 50–70% CAGR. Total: (uplink + downlink) monthly traffic (Petabytes) • Video is driving the growth, already more than 50% is video-related. • New capabilities, such as LTE and HD video, drive the growth even further. Source Ericsson (2014) 20 15.98 Exabytes per month 10.8 • More connections per person, large number of M2M type Intelligent things connected to the Internet 10 7 1.5 0 2013 2.6 2014 4.4 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Cisco (2014) www.4gamericas.org Meeting demands today with LTE 1/3 144 Million Connections in North America Source: Ovum, WCIS+, September 2014 and 4G Americas Of all mobile connections in U.S. and Canada www.4gamericas.org U.S. Leads the world in LTE subscriptions 346 million global LTE subscriptions U.S. = 140 million connections 40% of global LTE totals www.4gamericas.org Spectrum requirements for mobile broadband Total Spectrum requirements Traffic growth ratio in 2020 compared to 2010 Lower user density settings 1 340 MHz 44-fold Higher user density settings 1 960 MHz 80-fold www.4gamericas.org Source: ITU-R Maximizing spectrum is a key tenant of the mobile broadband industry Auction Revenues Auction 66 2006 AWS-1 $13,879,110,200 Auction 73 2008 700MHz $19,120,378,000 www.4gamericas.org U.S. Spectrum Considerations Very few countries follow the 700MHz U.S. Plan 700 MHz spectrum challenges Bolivia Caribbean Region Canada Small slices of spectrum Technical Innovation Combining disparate spectrum bands for faster speeds • Impressive increases in downlink throughput LTE Carrier • Peak theoretical throughput up to 150 Mbps LTE Carrier LTE Carrier • Significant reduction in latency • CA devices increasing rapidly • Devices expected to proliferate in 2014, 2015 Aggregated Data Pipe Increased speeds LTE Carrier LTE Carrier #5 LTE Carrier www.4gamericas.org Technology Evolution to LTE-Advanced www.4gamericas.org Maximizing Spectrum Utilization Requires Managing Networks Cell Towers Self-Optimizing Networks www.4gamericas.org Small Cells EiCIC Heterogeneous networks 600 MHz can be successful if we solve the Rubik’s cube 1st Time in the world for this kind of auction “It’s a Rubik’s Cube!” FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler Reverse auction Re-purposing and re-banding new spectrum Forward Auction www.4gamericas.org 600 MHz Band Plan – Pre and Post-Auction 14 TV Channel TV Channels X cleared Frequencies in MHz 470 Contiguous 608x 608 614 Upper Guard Band TV CHANNELS 600 MHz Downlink Channel 37 Potential Post-auction Land Mobile Radio 700 MHz Uplink TV CHANNELS TV CHANNELS Lower Guard Band Pre-auction Land Mobile Radio 51 37 600 MHz Uplink 700 MHz Uplink Y cleared 698-Y 698 Wider Channels Low band Spectrum The incentive auction in early 2016 is expected to repurpose a large amount of UHF spectrum in the 600MHz band from broadcast to mobile use www.4gamericas.org Broadcasters – One of the Keys to the Auction! We Want YOU! SEATTLE U.S. broadband subscribers will surpass pay-TV subscribers by mid-2015 www.4gamericas.org SEATTLE Solving the Rubik’s cube www.4gamericas.org The U.S. is a leader in innovation The 600 MHz auction is innovative! The mobile broadband industry will use spectrum efficiently. After the Auction: Evangelize the Spectrum Band Plan Brazil Argentina Encourage global regulators to consider adoption of 600 MHz Mexico Venezuela Uruguay Peru Optimizing Economies of Scale and Roaming Chile www.4gamericas.org Colombia Ecuador Dominican Republic Thank you! Chris Pearson, President, 4G Americas www.4gamericas.org 4th Annual Americas Spectrum Management Conference | November 12–13, 2014 | Washington Plaza Hotel | Washington D.C
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