Romania – real convergence on the way to euro adoption Ionut Dumitru President of the Fiscal Council, Professor at Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, and Chief-economist, Raiffeisen Bank Romania June 2014 Eurozone enlargement – current status Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Hungary Lithuania Poland Romania Denmark Sweden United Kingdom Initia l ta rget 2010 2019 2009/ 2010 2008 2007 2008/ 2009 2014 no target no target no target Da te of setting the ta rget 2004 2003 2003 2004 2003 2007 Current ta rget no target date no target date no target date no target date 2015 no target date 2019 not obliged to join de facto opt-out not obliged to join Source: European Commission Public policies make a difference GDP per ca pita in PPS (% of a vera ge for Germ a ny a nd Fra nce) 60 5 8 .3 5 7 .8 55 50 4 6 .5 4 7 .1 45 4 2 .1 4 1 .4 40 4 1 .2 35 3 0 .8 30 2 7 .0 25 2 4 .4 2 8 .3 2 2 .3 Bulga ria Pola nd Hunga ry Rom a nia Source: European Commission 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 20 Real convergence: not a one way street GDP per ca pita in PPS (% of a vera ge for Germ a ny a nd Fra nce) 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 Ita ly Irela nd Portuga l Spa in Greece Source: European Commission 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 50 Euro area enlargement: euro adopted recently only by small countries 14 12 10 8 6 Sta ble popula tion in 2 0 1 3 (% of Euro a rea ) Gross dom estic Product in 2 0 1 3 (% of Euro a rea ) Source: European Commission, Eurostat Spa in Greece Portuga l Pola nd Czech Republic Hunga ry Bulga ria Lithua nia Rom a nia Slova k ia 2008: Malta, Cyprus Slovenia 0 La tvia 2007: Slovenia Estonia 2 Cy prus Euro adoption years: M a lta 4 2009: Slovakia 2011: Estonia 2014: Latvia Euro area enlargement: deep foreign trade integration for Euro area late comers Ex ports of goods a nd services (% of GDP) 120 100 80 60 40 20 1999 2001 2007 2008 2008 2009 2011 Ex ports tow a rds EU m em ber countries (% of GDP)* 2013 2013 Pola nd Czech Republic Hunga ry Bulga ria Lithua nia Rom a nia La tvia Estonia Slova k ia M a lta Cy prus Slovenia Greece Portuga l Spa in 0 2013 Ex ports tow a rds non EU m em ber countries (% of GDP)* Tota l ex ports of goods a nd services in 2 0 1 3 (% of GDP) * computed in the year of Euro adoption for new Euro area member countries and in 2013 for non Euro area member countries Source: European Commission, Eurostat, Raiffeisen RESEARCH Euro area enlargement: high GDP per capita at the moment of euro adoption GDP per ca pita in PPS a s % of Germ a ny + Fra nce in the y ea r of a ccession in Euro a rea 84 81 79 74 73 69 65 Slovenia Cy prus M a lta Slova k ia Estonia La tvia 1999 60 Greece Spa in Portuga l 59 2001 2007 2008 2008 2009 2011 2014 Source: Eurostat, Raiffeisen RESEARCH Real convergence in Romania by 2019: some scenarios GDP per ca pita a t PPS in Rom a nia (% of Germ a ny + Fra nce) GDP per ca pita a t PPS (% y oy , a vera ge for period) Reference period Rom a nia 70 Germ a ny +Fra nce 2 0 0 1 -2 0 0 8 1 2 .0 2 .9 2 0 0 1 -2 0 1 3 8 .4 2 .4 2 0 0 6 -2 0 1 3 7 .5 2 .1 2 0 0 9 -2 0 1 3 2 .9 1 .4 2 0 1 1 -2 0 1 3 4 .5 2 .3 63 59 60 54 50 GDP per ca pita in 47 Rom a nia in 2 0 1 9 (% of Germ a ny a nd Fra nce) Scena rios for period 2 0 1 4 -2 0 1 9 Scena rio 1 4 .5 2 .0 54 Scena rio 2 6 .0 2 .0 59 Scena rio 3 7 .0 2 .0 63 40 30 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 Real GDP should grow by at least 4% on average per year to be in Scenario 2. 2000 20 Scena rio 1 : + 3 .0 % per y ea r grow th in GDP per ca pita a t PPS Scena rio 2 : + 4 .5 % per y ea r grow th in GDP per ca pita a t PPS Scena rio 3 : + 6 .0 % per y ea r grow th in GDP per ca pita a t PPS Source: European Commission, Eurostat, own computation Scarce net inflows of foreign capital to private sector, slow recovery pace 20 12 15 9 10 6 5 3 0 0 -5 -3 7 .3 % per y ea r 2 .1 % per y ea r -6 N et loa ns, deposits (% of GDP) Tota l inflow s of foreign ca pita l in priva te sector (% of GDP) Note: net inflows of foreign capital in the private sector; portfolio inflows excluded Source: National Bank of Romania, National Institute of Statistics Rea l GDP ex cluding a griculture (% y oy ) 14Q1 13Q1 12Q1 11Q1 10Q1 09Q1 08Q1 07Q1 06Q1 05Q1 04Q1 03Q1 N et FDIs (% of GDP) -9 02Q1 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 -1 0 Much stronger progress in absorption of EU funds is needed Utilizarea Fondurilor Structurale permite (1) cresterea potentialului de crestere economica si (2) acoperirea necesarului de finantare externa al tarii 85 Rom a nia : progress w ith a bsorbption of EU Structura l Funds 79 71 69 4 0 .2 64 62 57 53 52 45 Rom a nia Bulga ria Slova k ia Czech Republic Hunga ry Slovenia La tvia Pola nd Lithua nia Apr-1 4 M a r-1 4 Dec-1 3 Sep-1 3 Jun-1 3 M a r-1 3 Dec-1 2 Sep-1 2 Jun-1 2 M a r-1 2 Dec-1 1 Sep-1 1 Jun-1 1 M a r-1 1 Estonia 3 3 .9 M oney pa id by Europea n Com m ission (% of tota l a lloca tions 2 0 0 7 -2 0 1 3 ) Pa y m ents to fina l beneficia ries, including a dva nces (% of tota l a lloca tions for 2 0 0 7 -2 0 1 3 ) Interim (recognized) pa y m ents from the EU (% of tota l a lloca tions for 2 0 0 7 -2 0 1 3 ) Source: European Commission Note: Transfers refer both to interim (recognized) payments and advances; most recent data made public by the European Commission; Data refer to 15 April 2014 Potential agricol ridicat... Supra fa ta a ra bila in 2 0 1 0 (m ilioa ne hecta re) Supra fa ta cultiva ta cu cerea le in 2 0 1 0 (m ilioa ne hecta re) 20 18 10 16 9 8 14 7 12 6 10 5 8 4 6 Litua nia Cehia Da nem a rca Bulga ria Unga ria M a rea Brita nie Ita lia Rom a nia Spa nia Germ a nia Fra nta Da nem a rca Cehia Suedia Bulga ria Unga ria M a rea Brita nie Ita lia Rom a nia Polonia Spa nia 0 Germ a nia 1 0 Fra nta 2 2 Polonia 3 4 vedere al suprafetelor agricole si al ocuparii in agricultura VAB in a gricultura in 2 0 1 3 (% din tota l VAB in econom ie ) 30 7 25 6 20 5 15 4 10 Uniunea Europeana =5.2% 5 3 Medie UE =1.7 2 0 1 RO BG PL GR PT LT SL LV HU IE EE FI AT ES CY 0 Sa la ria ti (% din tota l persoa ne ocupa te in econom ie) RO BG LV HU HR EE LT Romania ocupa un loc important in Uniunea Europeana din punct de Popula tia ocupa ta in a gricultura in 2 0 1 2 35 PL GR SK SL FI CY ES Auto-ocupa re (% din tota l persoa ne ocupa te in econom ie) Sursa: Eurostat, Institutul National de Statsitica , Raiffeisen RESEARCH ... dar insuficient valorificat - probleme structurale in agricultura Impact puternic al conditiilor climaterice asupra productiei agricole Segmentare importanta a exploatatiilor agricole (lipsa cadastrului) Agricultura de subzistenta detine o pondere importanta Romania este importator net de produse agroalimentare (exclusiv cereale) 120 Structura supra fetei a gricole utiliza ta dupa m a rim ea ex ploa ta tiei in 2 0 1 0 (% din tota l) 115 100 110 90 105 80 100 70 Peste 5 0 ha 60 95 2 0 -5 0 ha 50 90 1 0 -2 0 ha 40 5 -1 0 ha 85 30 0 -5 ha 20 10 0 RO GR SL HR IT PL LT PT HU BG ES AT LV NL CH EE SK NO SE FR FI IE DE UK CZ DK Va loa rea a da uga ta bruta in a gricultura (term eni rea li, 2003=100) 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 80 M edie 1 9 9 5 -2 0 1 3 Sursa: Eurostat, Institutul National de Statsitica , Raiffeisen RESEARCH Cresterea eficientei cheltuielilor de investitii publice este absolut necesara Cheltuieli publice de investitii (% din PIB, medie anuala, 2000-2013) Cheltuieli publice de investitii (% din veniturile bugetare, medie anuala, 2000-2013) 5 16 4.5 14 4 12 3.5 3 10 2.5 8 2 6 1.5 Austria Belgium Denmark Germany United Kingdom Italy Finland EU 18 Norway EU 28 France Sweden Greece Slovakia Iceland Netherlands Cyprus Portugal Slovenia Hungary Spain Malta Latvia Luxembourg Ireland Czech Republic Poland Bulgaria Estonia Romania Austria Belgium Germany United Kingdom Italy Denmark Switzerland EU18 Slovakia EU28 Finland Greece France Norway Sweden Cyprus Portugal Croatia Spain Malta Latvia Netherlands Ireland Iceland Slovenia Hungary Bulgaria Lithuania Poland Luxembourg 0 Estonia 0 Czech Republic 2 Romania 0.5 Lithuania 4 1 Scor privind ca lita tea infra structurii de tra nsport (W EF, 2 0 1 2 -2 0 1 3 ) 7 Resurse financiare mari alocate pentru cheltuielile publice de investitii, dar: 6 exista un sentiment puternic ca progresele facute in domeniul infrastructurii au fost foarte mici 5 infrastructura slaba ramane o problema esentiala pentru Romania 4 Necesitatea prioritizarii investitiilor si atragerii sectorului privat (parteneriate publice-private) 3 2 1 DE FR UK NL ES LU AT DK SE BE FI PT IE NO IT MT SL CZ VY LT EE GR HU SK LV PL BG RO 0 Sursa: Eurostat, World Economic Forum, The Global Competitiveness Report 2012-2013 Resurse reduse alocate sanatatii si educatiei % din PIB, medie 2 0 0 0 -2 0 1 2 EU 27 EU 18 Bulgaria Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania Slovakia Sa na ta te Educa tie 6.94 6.92 4.38 7.23 5.26 4.62 3.38 5.90 5.27 4.94 3.94 4.68 5.50 5.78 3.75 3.88 Romania Bulgaria Cehia Ungaria Locuinte si amenajari comunitare UE-27 Protectia mediului 40% Actiuni economice Structura cheltuielilor bugetare dupa clasificatia functionala, 2012 Polonia Slovacia 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Protectie sociala Educatie Recreere, cultura si religie Sanatate Ordine si siguranta publica Aparare Servicii publice generale 0% Sursa: EUROSTAT Eficienta energetica scazuta a economiei Eficienta energetica a economiei s-a imbunatatit, dar ramane redusa comparativ cu celelalte economii din Uniunea Europeana Cresterea eficientei energetice a economiei permite cresterea competitivitatii acesteia, inclusiv reducerea importurilor de produse energetice Gross inla nd consum ption of energy divided by GDP (k g of oil equiva lent per 1 0 0 0 EUR) in 2 0 1 2 Gross inla nd consum ption of energy divided by GDP (k g of oil equiva lent per 1 0 0 0 EUR) 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 100 100 0 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 0 Bulga ria Estonia Rom a nia Czech Republic Slova k ia La tvia Pola nd Lithua nia Hunga ry Slovenia Croa tia Finla nd Belgium Cy prus Greece N etherla nds Sw eden M a lta Portuga l Fra nce Spa in Lux em bourg Germ a ny Austria Ita ly N orw a y United Kingdom Denm a rk Irela nd 200 Sursa: Eurostat , Raiffeisen RESEARCH Ineficienta companiilor de stat reprezinta o problema serioasa Desi contribuie cu doar circa 7% la valoarea adaugata din economie, companiile de stat contribuie cu circa 24% la totalul arieratelor din economie 20% 52.4 46.2 52.0 9.1 9.0 8.1 8.0 31.1 5.9 27.0 6.2 34.9 28.5 6.9 10.00 8.2 Bugetul general consolidat 12.2 20.00 13.7 Furnizori 14.1 40% 30.00 13.3 Banci 60% 27.8 40.00 10.0 50.00 80% 34.3 60.00 39.1 100% 34.8 70.00 44.3 Structura arieratele companiilor din Romania (% din total, decembrie 2012) 68.9 80.00 Arierate/CA Companii private (%) Arierate/CA Companii de stat (%) Sursa: Consiliul Fiscal 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 Companii de stat Companii private 2001 0% 2000 0.00 Competitivitatea economiei este una relativ scazuta World Bank Doing Business Report – Ranking (out of 189 countries) Dealing with Ease of Doing Starting a Constructi Business Business on Permits United States Germany Poland Slovak Republic Hungary Bulgaria Romania Czech Republic Registerin g Property Getting Electricity Procedure Cost (% of Time s income Rank (days) (number) per capita) Getting Credit Protecting Paying Investors Taxes Trading Enforcing Across Contracts Borders Resolving Insolvency Recovery Cost (% rate (cents of Rank on the estate) dollar) Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Time (years) 13 25 3 6 64 22 11 1.5 7 81.5 17 47 205 3 137 81 54 28 3 98 52 89 113 14 49 5 55 1.2 3.0 8 15 82.9 54.8 13 37 158 11 65 11 42 115 102 108 65 4.0 18 54.1 38 5 6 7 252 130 223 116 320 534 112 135 174 45 62 70 55 28 13 128 52 52 124 81 134 70 79 76 15 79 53 2.0 3.3 3.3 14.5 9 10.5 38.3 32.6 30.0 70 92 99 6 279 179 146 37 55 98 122 68 75 2.1 17 65.0 29 Rank Rank Rank 4 20 34 4 60 16 21 45 111 116 12 88 3 6 17 161 49 108 53 5 54 58 73 59 65 60 47 118 136 75 146 86 Source: World Bank Doing Business 2013-2014 Report World Economic Forum World Competitiveness Report – Ranking (out of 148 countries) 1.11 Efficiency of legal framework in challenging regs., 1-7 (best) 1.10 Efficiency of legal framework in settling disputes, 1-7 (best) 1.04 Public trust in politicians, 1-7 (best) 1.07 Favoritism in decisions of government officials, 1-7 (best) 1.08 Wastefulness of government spending, 1-7 (best) 1.09 Burden of government regulation, 1-7 (best) 2.02 Quality of roads, 1-7 (best) 2.05 Quality of air transport infrastructure, 1-7 (best) 6.09 Prevalence of trade barriers, 1-7 (best) 1.20 Protection of minority shareholders’ interests, 1-7 (best) 7.07 Reliance on professional management, 1-7 (best) 1.19 Efficacy of corporate boards, 1-7 (best) 7.01 Cooperation in labor-employer relations, 1-7 (best) 5.08 Extent of staff training, 1-7 (best) 1.17 Ethical behavior of firms, 1-7 (best) 2.04 Quality of port infrastructure, 1-7 (best) 7.05 Effect of taxation on incentives to work, 1-7 (best) 6.04 Effect of taxation on incentives to invest, 1-7 (best) 7.08 Country capacity to retain talent, 1-7 (best) 7.09 Country capacity to attract talent, 1-7 (best) 1.B. Private institutions, 1-7 (best) 2.A. Transport infrastructure, 1-7 (best) Romania Bugaria Czech Rep Hungary Poland 128 122 126 138 111 128 125 115 113 119 141 97 146 129 100 137 117 123 116 65 134 86 53 110 93 127 105 135 140 133 145 112 81 73 105 119 83 21 101 103 128 123 68 43 89 128 99 83 80 93 131 112 62 114 79 126 127 88 120 95 139 99 74 83 88 134 127 68 108 75 139 110 109 92 59 123 85 61 84 97 146 109 133 132 105 136 103 132 135 116 138 142 109 126 119 132 144 87 115 121 127 94 93 89 60 122 97 49 71 92 Source: The Global Competitiveness report, World Economic Forum, 2013-2014 World Bank Doing Business Report – Paying taxes, ranking (out of 189 countries) Rank Ireland Estonia Latvia Slovenia Lithuania United States Bulgaria Germany Slovak Republic Poland Czech Republic Hungary 6 32 49 54 56 64 81 89 102 113 122 124 Kyrgyz Republic Sierra Leone Mozambique Yemen, Rep. Belarus Romania Europe & Central Asia OECD high income 127 128 129 129 133 134 .. .. Payments Time (hours Profit tax Labor tax and Other Total tax rate (number per per year) (%) contributions (%) taxes (%) (% profit) year) 9 80 12.3 12.1 1.3 25.7 7 81 8.1 39.4 2 49.4 7 264 4.9 27.3 3.7 35.9 11 260 12.9 18.2 1.4 32.5 11 175 6 35.2 1.9 43.1 11 175 27.9 9.9 8.4 46.3 13 454 4.9 20.2 2.6 27.7 9 218 23 21.8 4.6 49.4 20 207 7 39.6 0.6 47.2 18 286 14.1 26 1.5 41.6 8 413 7.7 38.4 2 48.1 12 277 11.6 34.6 3.5 49.7 51 33 37 44 10 39 26 12 210 353 230 248 319 200 246 175 6.2 18.2 30.9 20.1 13.4 10.3 9 16.1 19.5 11.3 4.5 11.3 39 31.5 22.6 23.1 7.7 2.9 2.1 1.4 1.5 1.1 7 2 33.4 32.4 37.5 32.7 54 42.9 38.7 41.3 Source: World Bank Doing Business 2013-2014 Report Bulgaria Romania Czech Republic Tax or mandatory contribution Payments (number) Notes on Payments Total tax rate (% profit) Social security contributions 1 online filing 20.2 Social security contributions 12 23.5 Social security contributions 1 online filing 24.3 Corporate income tax 1 online filing 4.9 Corporate income tax 4 10.3 Health Insurance 1 online filing 10.2 Fees for municipal services (garbage collection fee) - Sofia 4 0.9 Health insurance contributions 0 paid jointly 5.9 Corporate income tax 1 online filing 7.7 Stamp duty on property transfer 1 0.9 Medical leave 0 paid jointly 1 Sickness insurance 0 paid jointly 2.6 Vignette 1 0.4 Building tax 2 1 Property transfer tax 1 Real estate tax on the land and building 1 0.3 Unemployment contribution 0 paid jointly 0.6 Unemployment contribution 0 paid jointly 1.4 Vehicle tax 1 0.1 Accident risk fund 0 paid jointly 0.4 Road tax 1 online filing 0.1 Fuel tax 1 .. Guarantee fund 0 paid jointly 0.3 Real estate tax 1 Value added tax (VAT) 1 online filing .. Vehicle tax 2 0.1 Value added tax (VAT) 1 online filing .. Final/one-off tax on certain expenses 1 online filing .. Firm tax 2 0 Fuel tax 1 .. Totals: 13 Urbanism tax 1 0 Totals: 8 48.1 Land tax 2 0 Value added tax (VAT) 12 .. Environmental taxes 1 .. Fuel tax 1 .. Stamp duty on contracts 0 Totals: 39 27.7 Tax or mandatory contribution Payments (number) Hungary Notes on Payments Total tax rate (% profit) Tax or mandatory contribution Payments (number) Notes on Payments Total tax rate (% profit) 1.8 0 .. 42.9 Poland Slovak Republic Payments (number) Notes on Payments Total tax rate (% profit) Social tax 1 online filing 30.5 Social security contributions 1 online filing 18.9 Social security contributions 1 Local business tax 1 online filing 5.9 Corporate income tax 1 online filing 14.1 Corporate income tax 1 7 Corporate income tax 1 online filing 5.8 National disabled fund 0 paid jointly 4.2 Tax on interest 0 0.5 Rehabilitation contribution 1 online filing 2.4 Labor fund 0 paid jointly 2.8 Property tax 4 0.4 Training contribution 0 paid jointly 1.7 Property tax 1 1.4 Motor vehicle tax 1 0.2 Special tax 1 online filing 1.4 Guaranteed employees' fund 0 0.1 Fuel tax 1 .. Property tax 1 online filing 0.9 Transport tax 2 0.1 Value added tax (VAT) 12 .. R&D Tax 1 online filing 0.9 Fuel tax 1 .. Totals: 20 47.2 Land tax 1 online filing 0.2 Value added tax (VAT) 12 .. Vehicle tax 1 online filing 0.2 Totals: 18 41.6 Fuel tax 1 Value added tax (VAT) 1 Environmental tax 1 Totals: 12 Tax or mandatory contribution .. online filing .. .. 49.7 Tax or mandatory contribution Payments (number) Notes on Payments Total tax rate (% profit) Tax or mandatory contribution Payments (number) Notes on Payments Total tax rate (% profit) online filing 39.6 paid jointly VAT rate 28 27 26 25 25 24 24 24 23 23 23 23 22 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 19.6 20 21.3 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 18 18 16 15 Source: European Commission HU SE DK RO FI PT PL EL IE IT EU-27 NL LT LV ES CZ BE UK SK SI AT EE BG FR DE MT CY LU 14 Top personal income tax rates 59 44 45 51.1 52 52 NL 43.6 46 50 50.2 SI 49 50 AT 54 ES 55.6 56.6 53 53.7 47.3 47.5 41 38.5 38.9 39 35 34 32 29 24 24 15 16 16 RO 19 HU 21 25 22 14 10 SE DK BE PT FI FR DE IT EL UK LU IE EU-27 CY MT PL SK LV CZ EE LT BG 9 Source: European Commission Top statutory tax rate on corporate income 39 36.1 35 34 34 31.4 31.5 29.2 29.8 30 29 25 NL AT 23 UK 24 SK 24.5 23 23.2 25 DK 26 25 22 19 19 CZ PL 20.6 21 19 17 15 LT 14 15 LV 16 10 10 BG CY 12.5 FR MT BE PT IT ES DE LU EL FI EU-27 SE EE HU SI RO IE 9 Source: European Commission Social security contributions 70 59 60 49.4 48 49.05 50 42.19 43.2 33 33.2 EE EU-27 40 34.75 35.09 36.25 36.46 38.2 44.95 44.96 45 45.5 39.5 39.7 30.3 30 25.02 25.8 20 17.21 14.75 10.5 7.79 10 0 Source: European Commission FR SK NL BE HU CZ EL RO LT PL DE AT SI IT ES LV PT BG UK LU SE IE CY FI DK 0 What employers must spend to pay each net euro to an employee Sursa: Molinari Economic Institute, The Tax Burden of Typical Workers in the EU 27, 2013 Disparitati regionale foarte mari PIB nom ina l per ca pita (2 0 1 1 , % din m edia na tiona la ) > 150% BT SM MM SV BH IS BN SJ CJ HR MS VS BC AR (1 0 0 % , 1 2 5 % ] AB SB HD TM BV CV VN BZ CS GJ VL AG MH TL (7 5 % , 1 0 0 % ] DB OT TR GL BR PH IF B DJ (1 2 5 % , 1 5 0 % ] NT IL CL CT (5 0 % , 7 5 % ] GR <= 50%
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