COSMO-DE-EPS
Status, developments & plans
-- plenary session --
Christoph Gebhardt, Susanne Theis,
Michael Buchhold, Andreas Röpnack
Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu
C. Gebhardt, DWD
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Outline
 operational set up
 forecast products
 verification results
 new developments and future plans
 “R & D – history” of COSMO-DE-EPS
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu
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Operational set-up of COSMO-DE-EPS
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu
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operational set-up:
20 members
grid size: 2.8 km
convection-permitting
lead time: 0-27 hours,
8 starts per day (00, 03, 06,... UTC)
model domain
The 20 members of COSMO-DE-EPS
1
2
3
4
5
IFS
GME
GFS
BC-EPS
GSM
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Forecast products
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu
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Operational products („forecasters‘ choice“ in testing mode)
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu
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Operational products („forecasters‘ choice“ in testing mode)
type:
probabilities, quantiles, EPS mean, spread, max. & min. member
forecasters’ choice:
members as 2D-forecast fields for selected variables
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu
C. Gebhardt, DWD
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Operational products („forecasters‘ choice“ in testing mode)
type:
probabilities, quantiles, EPS mean, spread, max. & min. member
forecasters’ choice:
members as 2D-forecast fields for selected variables
variables:
precip., 2m temperature, 10m wind gusts, snow, Tmin, Tmax
forecasters’ choice:
cloud cover (low), CAPE, synthetic radar reflectivity (max. in column)
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu
C. Gebhardt, DWD
10
Operational products („forecasters‘ choice“ in testing mode)
type:
probabilities, quantiles, EPS mean, spread, max. & min. member
forecasters’ choice:
members as 2D-forecast fields for selected variables
variables:
precip., 2m temperature, 10m wind gusts, snow, Tmin, Tmax
forecasters’ choice:
cloud cover (low), CAPE, synthetic radar reflectivity (max. in column)
temporal reference (e.g. of probs.):
1hour, 6 and 12 hours
spatial reference
1 grid point or 10 x 10 grid points (for precip. probabilities only)
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu
C. Gebhardt, DWD
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Verification of operational forecasts
EPS not calibrated or post-processed
observations: rain-gauge adjusted radar or SYNOP
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu
C. Gebhardt, DWD
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Brier Skill Score
(reference: deterministic run of COSMO-DE)
hourly precipitation
summer 12
winter 12/13
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu
C. Gebhardt, DWD
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Reliability
hourly precipitation
summer 12
winter 12/13
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu
C. Gebhardt, DWD
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Rank histogram
hourly precipitation
summer 12
winter 12/13
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu
C. Gebhardt, DWD
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rank histogram
2m temperature
wind gusts
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C. Gebhardt, DWD
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New developments
 Target: improve the representation of forecast uncertainty in
general and for specific applications leading to better
probabilistic forecasts
 Perturbed coefficient for minimum diffusion
(heat and momentum, tkhmin and tkmmin)
 improvement in 2m temperature
 Perturbed soil moisture  improvement in 2m temperature
 Research: increase to 40 members by including COSMO-LEPS
forecasts as BC conditions
 Research: modify IC perturbation depending on orography
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu
C. Gebhardt, DWD
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Future plans and options
 calibration in operational mode
(needs evaluation by forecasters)
 add new physics perturbations or alternative perturbation
methods (e.g. stochastic physics)
 LETKF for IC perturbations (KENDA)
 ICON-EPS for BC perturbations
 use time-lagged ensemble approach in product generation
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu
C. Gebhardt, DWD
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start of operational
mode
R & D resources related to COSMO-DE-EPS
Project „COSMO-DE-EPS“ and permanent staff
+ maintenance
Width of bar = 1 person
Co-operation DWD & external
DWD projects
Visualization (NinJo)
Other (loose co-operation / unknown)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu
2012
2014
2013
C. Gebhardt, DWD
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Thank you!
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu
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