Review of Carbon Emission Factors in the UK Greenhouse Gas Inventory Baggott SL Lelland A Passant NP Watterson J November 2004 This work forms part of the Global Atmosphere Research Programme of the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. = Title Review of Carbon Emission Factors in the UK Greenhouse Gas Inventory Customer Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Customer reference RMP/2106 Confidentiality, copyright and reproduction Copyright AEA Technology plc. All rights reserved. Enquiries about copyright and reproduction should be addressed to the Commercial Manager, AEA Technology plc. Published by AEA Technology plc. File reference N:\naei02\8_ipcc\09_CDs and technical reports\1_Review of carbon factors\reports\final\Review_of_Carbon_Emission_Factors_2004NIR_Issue1_v 1.3.2.doc NAEI contacts database reference 05452/2002/CD4545/SB Reference number ISBN AEAT/ENV/R/2347 n/a Issue number Issue One, Version 1.3.2 AEA Energy and Environment The Gemini Building Fermi Avenue Harwell International Business Centre Didcot, Oxfordshire, OX11 0QR Telephone Facsimile 0870 190 6409 0870 190 6607 AEA Technology is the trading name of AEA Technology plc AEA Technology is certified to ISO9001 Report Manager Name S L Baggott Approved by Name J Watterson Signature Date Review of Carbon Emission Factors 2 November 2006 AEA Energy & Environment Page ii = Units and conversions Emissions of greenhouse gases presented in this report are given in Million tonnes (Mt) and kilotonnes (kt). To convert between the units of emissions, use the conversion factors given below. Prefixes and multiplication factors Multiplication factor 1,000,000,000,000,000 1,000,000,000,000 1,000,000,000 1,000,000 1,000 100 10 0.1 0.01 0.001 0.000,001 Abbreviation 1015 1012 109 106 103 102 101 10-1 10-2 10-3 10-6 Prefix peta tera giga mega kilo hecto deca deci centi milli micro 1 kilotonne (kt) = 1 Million tonne (Mt) = 103 tonnes 106 tonnes = 1,000 tonnes = 1,000,000 tonnes 1 Gigagramme (Gg) 1 Teragramme (Tg) = = 1 Mt 1 kt Symbol P T G M k h da d c m µ Conversion of carbon emitted to carbon dioxide emitted To covert emissions expressed in weight of carbon, to emissions in weight of carbon dioxide, multiply by 44/12. Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page iii Executive Summary = ES.1 This report set out the results of a work programme to review and update the carbon emission factors in the 2002 UK greenhouse gas inventory. This was part of a wider programme of inventory review and improvement to prepare the greenhouse gas inventory to deliver the UK’s Assigned Amount under the Kyoto Protocol. Table ES1 shows the overall change in carbon emissions using the updated carbon factors for solid, liquid and gaseous fuels. Table ES1: Overall change in carbon emissions (MtC) Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 % change 1990-2002 2002 GHG inventory 164.63 165.66 161.62 157.45 156.27 153.83 159.35 152.65 153.46 151.13 152.17 155.75 150.26 -8.73% Review of Carbon Emission Factors Emissions using updated factors 165.88 167.43 163.02 158.62 157.31 154.17 160.31 153.84 155.03 152.07 152.92 157.09 151.79 Difference 1.26 1.77 1.40 1.17 1.05 0.34 0.96 1.19 1.57 0.93 0.76 1.33 1.52 % difference 0.76 1.07 0.86 0.75 0.67 0.22 0.60 0.78 1.02 0.62 0.50 0.86 1.02 -8.49% AEA Energy & Environment Page iv List of Contents Table of Contents 1 2 Introduction 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1 2 2 3 Overview of the changes in estimated GHG emissions due to the revisions in the selected CEFs 2.1 2.2 2.3 3 BACKGROUND TO THIS PROJECT GENERAL APPROACH TO THE CEF REVIEW FUELS REVIEWED QUOTED ACCURACY OF THE EMISSIONS IN THIS STUDY ORIGINAL AND REVISED CARBON EMISSION FACTORS CONTRIBUTIONS OF FUELS TO CARBON EMISSIONS IN INVENTORY UNITS OF CEFS USED IN THE UK GHG INVENTORY 4 6 6 Solid fuels 8 3.1 3.2 INTRODUCTION CEFS OF SOLID FUELS USED IN THE 2002 GHG INVENTORY 3.2.1 Coal 3.2.2 Coke 3.2.3 Anthracite 3.2.4 Petroleum coke 3.3 REVISED CEFS 3.3.1 Fraction of fuel unoxidised after combustion 3.3.2 Coal – ESI sector 3.3.3 Coal – Other sectors 3.3.3.1 3.3.3.2 3.3.4 3.3.5 3.3.5 4 Other sectors – excluding cement production Cement production 17 17 17 Non-cement industry consumers Cement industry 17 18 EFFECT OF REVISING THE CEFS FOR SOLID FUELS ON CARON EMISSIONS 3.4.1 Coal – ESI sector 3.4.2 Coal, anthracite, coke - other sectors 3.4.3 Petroleum coke 3.4.4 Overall change to carbon emissions resulting from revisions to the CEFs of the solid fuels 18 18 20 22 22 Gaseous fuels 4.1 4.2 23 INTRODUCTION CEFS OF GASEOUS FUELS USED IN THE 2002 GHG INVENTORY 4.2.1 Natural Gas Review of Carbon Emission Factors 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 12 12 17 Coke Anthracite Petroleum coke 3.3.5.1 3.3.5.2 3.4 4 AEA Energy & Environment 23 23 23 Page v List of Contents 4.2.2 Coke oven gas 4.2.3 Blast furnace gas 4.2.4 Other petroleum gas (OPG) 4.3 REVISED CEFS 4.3.1 Fraction of fuel unoxidised after combustion 4.3.2 Natural gas 4.3.3 Coke oven gas 4.3.4 Blast furnace gas 4.3.5 Other petroleum gas 4.4 EFFECT OF REVISING THE CEFS FOR GASEOUS FUELS ON CARBON EMISSIONS 4.4.1 Natural gas 4.4.1.1 4.4.2 4.4.3 4.4.4 4.4.5 5 Database 26 26 27 Blast furnace gas Coke oven gas Other petroleum gas (OPG) Overall change to carbon emissions resulting from revisions to the CEFs of the gaseous fuels 28 28 29 29 Liquid fuels 30 5.1 5.2 5.3 INTRODUCTION CEFS OF LIQUID FUELS USED IN THE 2002 GHG INVENTORY REVISED CEFS 5.3.1 Fraction of fuel unoxidised after combustion 5.4 EFFECT OF REVISING THE CEFS FOR LIQUID FUELS ON CARBON EMISSIONS 5.4.1 Naphtha 5.4.2 Aviation spirit 5.4.3 Fuel Oil 5.4.4 Gas oil 5.4.5 Diesel oil 5.4.6 Overall change to carbon emissions resulting from revisions to the CEFs of the liquid fuels 6 24 24 24 24 24 24 26 26 26 30 31 31 33 33 33 34 34 35 35 35 Overall effect on carbon emissions of the revised CEFs 37 7 References 41 8 Acknowledgements 43 Appendix 1 44 A1.1 BUNKER EMISSIONS A1.2 GROSS CALORIFIC VALUES A1.3 CONVERSION FACTORS FOR GROSS TO NET ENERGY CONSUMPTION Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment 44 46 49 Page vi List of Contents Appendix 2 50 A2.1 REVIEW OF FRACTIONS OF CARBON LEFT UNOXIDISED AFTER COMBUSTION IN LIQUID FUELS 50 Appendix 3 52 A3.1 PROJECT MEETINGS Review of Carbon Emission Factors 52 AEA Energy & Environment Page vii List of Contents Document revision history Issue Version Revision history 1.3 1.3.1 1.3.2 • • • • • Draft 1.0 1.0 1.0 Issued to UK Defra for internal review and comment Comments incorporated First issue Minor typographical errors corrected Minor typographical errors corrected in the headers and footers Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page viii List of Contents Abbreviations, acronyms and definitions Greenhouse gases CH4 Methane CO2 Carbon dioxide N2O Nitrous oxide General AEP Association of Electricity Providers www.aepuk.com AS ATF BCA BFG C CEF COG CORUS DTI DERV Aviation Spirit Aviation Turbine Fuel British Cement Association Blast Furnace Gas Carbon Carbon Emission Factor Coke Oven Gas The owner of the many of the integrated steel works in the UK UK Department of Trade and Industry Diesel Engined Road Vehicle fuel used in internal combustion engines that are compression ignition engines DUKES Digest of United Kingdom Energy Statistics www.dti.gov.uk/energy/statistics EA Environment Agency for England and Wales EU ESI ETS GCV GHG GHGI IPCC JEP European Union Electricity Supply Sector Emissions Trading Scheme Gross Calorific Value Greenhouse gas Greenhouse gas inventory Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Joint Environmental Programme funded by the Association of Electricity Producers (AEP) kt LPG kilotonne Liquid Petroleum Gas composed of a variable mixture of propane and butane Mt NG Mega tonne Natural gas Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page ix List of Contents OPG SSF SEPA TRANSCO Other Petroleum Gas Solid Smokeless Fuel Scottish Environmental Protection Agency Gas transportation company Ceased to exists in 2005, and now part of National Grid UK UK UKPIA United Kingdom UK Petroleum Industry Association Trade association which represents the oil refining and marketing industry in the United Kingdom www.ukpia.com UN/ECE UNFCCC United Nations Economic Commission for Europe United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page x Introduction 1 1 Introduction 1.1 BACKGROUND TO THIS PROJECT The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was ratified by the United Kingdom in December 1993 and came into force in March 1994. Parties to the Convention are committed to develop, publish and regularly update national emission inventories of greenhouse gases (GHGs). The UK has been compiling and submitting GHG inventories to the FCCC since 1994. AEA Energy & Environment, on behalf of UK Defra, has prepared the latest (at the time this report was written) greenhouse gas inventory (GHGI) and associated tables of emissions in CRF format according to UNFCCC guidelines contained in FCCC/CP/2002/8 (Baggott et. al., 2004). The estimates within the inventory have been generated by following the methods and procedures set out in the IPCC Revised 1996 Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC, 1997a, b, c) and Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC, 2000). The UK GHGI is subject to a range of external reviews. At the time this report was written, these reviews include reviews by experts from the FCCC during desk, centralised and in-country reviews, and, by invited independent examiners during a process of peer review. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Good Practice Guidance (IPCC, 2000) defines expert peer review as follows: ‘Expert peer review consists of a review of calculations or assumptions by experts in relevant technical fields. This procedure is generally accomplished by reviewing the documentation associated with the methods and results, but usually does not include rigorous certification of data or references such as might be undertaken in an audit. The objective of the expert peer review is to ensure that the inventory's results, assumptions, and methods are reasonable as judged by those knowledgeable in the specific field.’ The Good Practice Guidance requires that key sources should be subjected to external peer review. Key sources are those source categories with a significant influence on a country’s total inventory of direct greenhouse gases in terms of the absolute level of emissions, the trend in emissions, or both. The first peer review of the GHGI considered CO2 emissions from fuel combustion (Simmons, 2002). This topic was chosen for peer review since IPCC sector 1A11 was identified as a key source because of the magnitude of emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the combustion of solid, liquid and 1 Emissions from fuels combusted by the fuel extraction or energy producing industries. Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page 1 Introduction 1 gaseous fuels in that sector. In addition, fossil fuel combustion is the major source of UK emissions of carbon dioxide. A key recommendation of this peer review was that the carbon emission factors (CEFs) currently used in the inventory should be reviewed: ‘Many of the carbon emission factors used in the inventory date from 1989. Whilst they may still be accurate for the fuels used today there have been changes to the sources of fuels over the period of the inventory and changes in their qualities to reflect environmental requirements. It is recommended that the carbon content factors be reviewed, together with related factors accounting for incomplete oxidation of the fuels during combustion.’ This report presents the results of a review of the CEFs used in the 2004 UK National Inventory Report, containing the 2002 GHG inventory (1990 to 2002 inclusive). This work is important to the overall quality of the GHG estimates since accurate estimates of the carbon contents of fuels determine the accuracy of the estimated CO2 emissions. 1.2 GENERAL APPROACH TO THE CEF REVIEW A programme of work was developed to review CEFs of the fuels in the UK greenhouse gas inventory. The review concentrated on a selection of key fuels that contribute to the greatest proportions of CO2 emissions. A range of stakeholders were consulted during the review process, including industry experts within the UK electricity supply industry, the petroleum industry, and the gas supply industry. To support this work, a selection of liquid fuels were analysed, on behalf of UKPIA, to determine their carbon contents. Analysis of gas composition data from TRANSCO was also considered. In addition, data presented in a range of reports (including data on UK CEFs, calorific values, fractions of fuels left unoxidised after combustion, and fuel compositions) were reviewed. A range of parties examined the initial recommendations for revised CEFs including industry experts and government representatives of the UK Energy Trading Scheme (UK ETS). Their recommendations were considered before the final set of CEFs was selected for the GHGI. Following this review, CEFs were introduced into the 2002 greenhouse gas inventory, and the changes in the carbon emissions were quantified. 1.3 FUELS REVIEWED An analysis of the quantities of fuel consumed according to IPCC sector was completed in order to identify which fuels contributed the most to emissions of CO2 in the UK. This analysis clearly showed that the main effort of the work should be concentrated on revising the CEFs for natural gas, coal and the liquid fuels. The CEFs of other fuels were reviewed during the course of this work; the reason for selecting these additional fuels was to satisfy demands for revised CEFs for the UK ETS. Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page 2 Introduction 1 1.4 QUOTED ACCURACY OF THE EMISSIONS IN THIS STUDY In this report, emissions are quoted to 0.01 ktonne (or better) purely for convenience, to avoid the risk of rounding errors, and for convenience when taking ratios. The number of decimal places used should not be taken as indicative of the accuracy of the estimates. Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page 3 Overview 2 2 Overview of the changes in estimated GHG emissions due to the revisions in the selected CEFs This chapter of the report presents a summary of the changes in estimated GHG emissions due to the revisions in the selected CEFs. Table 2.1 shows the values of the original CEFs used in the 2002 GHGI for 1990 and 2002, and the revisions to those CEFs. The changes in emissions are summarised according to fuel, and IPCC reporting sector. Table 2.1 shows the overall effect on the revised CEFs on the national GHG totals. 2.1 ORIGINAL AND REVISED CARBON EMISSION FACTORS Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page 4 Overview 2 Table 2.1: Fuel Type Solid Original and revised CEFs values used in the 2002 GHGI for 1990 and 2002 (KtC/Mt fuel for solid and liquid fuels, and Kt/Mtherm for gaseous fuels) Consumer IPCC Fuel Original CEF 1990 Revised CEF 1990 Original CEF 2002 Revised CEF 2002 Petcoke 800 930 800 930 Petcoke (cement) 800 829.6 800 829.6 Agriculture Other bituminous coal 659.6 656.6 659.6 650.4 Autogenerators Other bituminous coal 659.6 659.6 659.6 628.7 Cement (combustion) Other bituminous coal 659.6 757.7 659.6 725.5 Collieries Other bituminous coal 659.6 659.6 659.6 684.9 Domestic Other bituminous coal 676.8 676.8 676.8 696.9 Domestic Anthracite 813.4 813.4 813.4 820.6 ESI Other bituminous coal 588.2 605 588.2 627.2 Iron & Steel blast furnaces Coking coal 710 694 Iron & Steel (combustion) Other bituminous coal 659.6 659.6 659.6 693.8 Lime production (combustion) Other bituminous coal 659.6 659.6 659.6 628.7 Miscellaneous Other bituminous coal 659.6 659.6 659.6 721.9 Other industry Other bituminous coal 659.6 659.6 659.6 633.5 Public services Other bituminous coal 659.6 659.6 659.6 721.9 Railways (stationary sources) Other bituminous coal 659.6 659.6 659.6 721.9 Liquid Aviation spirit 850 853 865 853 Diesel Oil 857 864 857 863 Fuel Oil 850 867 850 879 Gas Oil 857 869 857 870 Naphtha 940 854 940 854 Residual Fuel Oil 850 867 850 879 Gaseous Natural Gas 1.50 1.45 1.50 1.48 Blast Furnace Gs 6.27 7.46 6.27 7.46 Other Petroleum Gas 1.68 1.64 1.63 1.64 • The original CEFs are taken from the 2002 GHGI • ESI – Electricity Supply Industry • Emissions of the gaseous fuels are gross • The CEFs for solid fuels in this table account for the incomplete oxidation of the fuels following combustion. Oxidation factors are considered in Chapters 3, 4 and 5. Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page 5 Overview 2 2.2 CONTRIBUTIONS OF FUELS TO CARBON EMISSIONS IN INVENTORY Different fuels contribute different amounts to overall carbon emissions in the UK. It is those fuels that contribute the most to emissions that will have the most significant effect on emissions if their factors are altered. Table 2.2 list the major contributors to carbon emissions both in 1990 and 2002. Table 2.2: Percentage contributions of fuels to overall carbon emissions in the UK in 1990 and 2002 Fuel Coal Natural Gas Petrol Fuel oil DERV Gas Oil Blast Furnace Gas OPG Coke Clinker Production Burning Oil Aviation Turbine Fuel Anthracite SSF Coke Oven Gas LPG Limestone Petroleum Coke 1990 35 19 13 7 6 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 - 2002 21 38 11 2 10 4 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 The fuels listed in the above table contribute 97% to overall carbon emissions in 1990 and 2002. In each year, the remaining 3% is made up of a number of other fuels, each contributing 1% or less to the overall total. In both 1990 and 2002 the top three contributors remain the same – natural gas, coal and petrol, although the relative contribution from coal decreases and the importance of natural gas increases in 2002, relative to 1990. 2.3 UNITS OF CEFs USED IN THE UK GHG INVENTORY The emission factors used in the 2002 UK GHG inventory are expressed in terms of kg pollutant/tonne for solid and liquid fuels, and g/TJ gross for gases. This differs from the IPCC approach which expresses emission factors as tonnes pollutant/TJ based on the net calorific value of the fuel. For gases the factors used in the UK GHG inventory are based on the gross calorific value of the fuel. This approach is used because the gas consumption data in commodity balance tables produced by the UK DTI are reported in terms of energy content on a gross basis. Emissions factors for solid and liquid fuels are in terms of mass. These mass based factors can then be applied to consumptions of UK fuels expressed on a Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page 6 Overview 2 mass basis published by the DTI. Emissions factors for natural gas are in terms of the energy content of the gas consumed (g carbon/GJ gross). These energy based factors can then be applied to consumptions of UK fuels expressed on a energy basis published by the DTI. Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page 7 Solid fuels 3 3 Solid fuels 3.1 INTRODUCTION Within the UK, the main solid fuels that are used are coal, anthracite, coke and petroleum coke. In 1990 coal was the major contributor to carbon greenhouse gas emissions, with 34% of emissions arising from this fuel. This declined to 21% in 2002. The main user of coal is the power station sector, which accounted for 88.5% of emissions in 2002. Table 3.1 displays the main sectors that use coal in the UK and their percentage contribution to overall carbon emissions Table 3.1 Significant sources of coal in the UK Source Power Stations Coke Production Public Services Domestic Autogenerators Other Industry combustion Cement fuel combustion Lime production - combustion % contribution to overall coal emission 88.5 1.2 0.3 2.2 3.4 3.2 0.8 0.2 Minor emissions also occur from the Iron and steel industry, agriculture, railways, collieries and miscellaneous sources. Coke use in the UK accounted for 1% of overall carbon emissions in the UK in 2002. Coke is mainly used by the iron and steel industry and in 2002, emissions from this sector accounted for 69% of emissions. Other significant emissions arise from combustion in other industry and domestic use. Petroleum coke emissions accounted for 1% of overall carbon emissions in the UK in 2002. Petroleum coke is used mainly by the refineries sector (48% of emissions in 2002) and the cement industry (40% of emissions in 2002). 3.2 CEFs OF SOLID FUELS USED IN THE 2002 GHG INVENTORY 3.2.1 Coal The current carbon emission factors for coal were supplied to AEA Technology by British Coal in 1989. Since then, the emission factors used have not been altered. The production of coal within the UK declined steadily during the 1990s and gradually more coal has been imported from elsewhere. Due to this change in the mix of home/imported coal now used in the UK, the factors were reviewed. All the coal CEFs in the inventory take into account the proportion of un-oxidised carbon that remains in the ash after combustion. Table 3.2 shows the assumed Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page 8 Solid fuels 3 oxidation factors for each type of coal and the corresponding un-oxidised carbon emission factor. Table 3.2: Carbon retention in ash figures for coal use in UK in the 2004 GHG inventory Coal use Power Stations Other Domestic Un-oxidised factor (kt/Mt) 590 680 720 C retention in ash (%) 0.3 3 6 Oxidation factor 0.997 0.97 0.940 Oxidised factor (kt/Mt) 588.2 659.6 676.8 Table 3.3 displays the sources of coal emissions in the inventory and their corresponding emission factors. Table 3.3: Current coal emission factors (kt/Mt) Source Power Stations Public Services Domestic Autogenerators Other Industry combustion Cement fuel combustion Lime production - combustion Current coal emission factor (kt/Mt) 588.2 659.6 676.9 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 Minor emissions also occur from the iron and steel industry, agriculture, railways, collieries and other miscellaneous sources. The emission factor used for iron and steel blast furnaces is currently 710 kt/Mt and for other sources mentioned, the emission factor used is 659.6 kt/Mt. 3.2.2 Coke Coke emissions in the inventory arise from a variety of sources and overall contribute 1% to carbon emissions in the UK. Currently, as with coal, the factors were supplied by British Coal in 1989. As with coal, assumptions were made about the proportion of un-oxidised carbon left after combustion. Table 3.4 shows the assumed oxidation factors for coke and the corresponding un-oxidised carbon emission factor along with the oxidised factor that is currently used in the UK GHGI. Table 3.4: Coke use Domestic Power stations Other Carbon retention in ash figures for coke use in UK Un-oxidised factor (kt/Mt) 820 820 820 C retention in ash (%) 2 3 3 Oxidation factor 0.98 0.97 0.97 Oxidised factor (kt/Mt) 803.6 795.4 795.4 Table 3.5 displays the sources of coke emissions in the inventory and their corresponding emission factors. Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page 9 Solid fuels 3 Table 3.5: Sources of coke emissions and corresponding emission factors Source Domestic SSF production Coke production Iron and Steel (sinter) Other industry (combustion) Iron and steel (combustion) Lime production (combustion) Power stations Railway (stationary sources) Public services Agriculture Miscellaneous Current coke emission factor (kt/Mt) 803.6 820 795.4 Emissions from iron and steel blast furnaces are calculated from a mass balance approach (see Section 3.4.2). 3.2.3 Anthracite Carbon emissions from anthracite occur from the domestic sector only. The current carbon content of anthracite was supplied by British Coal in 1989 and has a value of 859 kt/Mt. This has a correction applied to it for the un-burnt fraction of carbon of 5.3%, giving the carbon emission factor of 813.4 kt/Mt. 3.2.4 Petroleum coke The current factor for petroleum coke was supplied by the UK Petroleum Institute Association (UKPIA) in 1989. The value is 800 ktC/Mt and applies to all sectors burning petroleum coke. 3.3 REVISED CEFs 3.3.1 Fraction of fuel unoxidised after combustion The CEFs in this section account for the carbon left unoxidised after combustion. 3.3.2 Coal – ESI sector Power stations are the major contributor to carbon emissions from coal combustion, and so obtaining updated emission factors for this sector was considered a priority. A time series (1990-2003) of updated carbon emission factors (Table 4.6) was obtained from Powertech (Quick, 2004). It was advised that data in this time series was based on Powergen operated sites only but would be fairly representative of the UK as a whole. These updated emission factors took into account the increase in the UK’s use of imported coals as well as a carbon in ash content (i.e. un-burnt carbon). Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page 10 Solid fuels 3 Table 3.6: Carbon emission factors provided by Quick (2004) Year % C in coal 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 60.37 61.05 60.78 60.78 60.63 59.73 60.92 61.74 62.35 61.94 61.76 62.54 62.99 62.58 % C in Coal corrected for 5% C in ash, 13% ash coal 59.69 60.37 60.10 60.10 59.95 59.05 60.24 61.06 61.67 61.26 61.08 61.86 62.31 61.90 Kte C/Mte coal burnt 596.86 603.66 600.96 600.96 599.46 590.46 602.36 610.56 616.66 612.56 610.76 618.56 623.06 618.96 A working paper from the Association of Electricity Producers (AEP) (Joslin et al, 2004) detailing their recommended carbon content of fuel and oxidation factor for 2003 was also obtained. This paper recommended a carbon content of 0.64 and an oxidation factor of 0.98. After discussion with both the AEP and Powergen it was established that the slightly higher carbon content quoted by the AEP was due to the influence of Aberthaw power station which burns coal with a higher carbon content. There was also a difference in the oxidation factor between the Powertech and AEP studies, and this occurs for two primary reasons. Firstly, the influence of Aberthaw, which due to its unique nature has high carbon content in ash. Secondly, Powergen stations have tended to be run as ‘base-load’ stations more than others, which invariably results in better combustion performance and lower carbon in ash (Quick, 2004b). It was therefore agreed by all parties that the time series of emission factors provided by Quick (2004) should be scaled to the AEP carbon content for 2003. It was also agreed that the oxidation factor of 0.98 should be used. Both these assumptions were considered to provide representative parameters from coal use within the UK. Taking these changes into account, proposed new carbon emission factors for the Greenhouse Gas Inventory are shown in Table 3.7. Emission factors are scaled as follows: A * (0.64/0.6258) = Carbon Emission Factor Where A = Carbon emission factor provided by Quick So in 2003, Carbon emission factor = 0.6258 * (0.64/0.6258) = 0.64 Applying the oxidation factor of 0.98 provides a carbon emission factor of 0.6272. Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page 11 Solid fuels 3 Table 3.7: Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 3.3.3 AEP scaled Carbon emission factors % C in coal 61.74 62.44 62.16 62.16 62.01 61.09 62.30 63.14 63.76 63.35 63.16 63.96 64.42 64.00 % C in coal corrected for 2% C in ash 60.51 61.19 60.92 60.92 60.77 59.86 61.06 61.88 62.49 62.08 61.90 62.68 63.13 62.72 kte/Mte coal burnt 605.05 611.87 609.16 609.16 607.66 598.64 610.56 618.78 624.89 620.79 618.80 626.80 631.31 627.20 Coal – Other sectors 3.3.3.1 Other sectors – excluding cement production Table 3.1 shows that the ESI sector is an important contributor to carbon emissions from coal combustion in the UK. Other sectors that use coal contribute just over 10% to overall emissions, with most of these sectors individually contributing less than 1% to totals. A full review and consultation with all the industry representatives in these sectors was not considered to be a wise use of resources in this project, and so an approach was developed to scale existing CEFs to GCVs reported in DTI (2003) relative to 1990. Carbon emission factors and GCVs are closely related and so an increase or decrease in a GCV is likely to reflect similarly in the carbon content of the fuel. Tables 3.8 to 3.11 display the results of the simple method used to calculate revised emission factors for the sectors consuming smaller quantities of coal. The cement sector is considered later. Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page 12 Solid fuels 3 Table 3.8: Carbon emission factors used in the 2002 GHG inventory Source Agriculture Coke Production Collieries Domestic I&S (blast furnace) I&S (combustion) Lime Production (combustion) Miscellaneous Other Industry (combustion) Public services Railways (stationary sources) SSF production Autogenerators Cement (Fuel combustion) 1990 659.6 41.87 659.6 676.8 1991 659.6 38.29 659.6 676.8 1992 659.6 31.42 659.6 676.8 1993 659.6 34.08 659.6 676.8 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 127.22 659.6 659.6 Review of Carbon Emission Factors 659.6 659.6 1994 659.6 34.31 659.6 676.8 710 659.6 659.6 1995 659.6 40.61 659.6 676.8 710 659.6 659.6 1996 659.6 36.74 659.6 676.8 710 659.6 659.6 1997 659.6 45.21 659.6 676.8 710 659.6 659.6 1998 659.6 44.84 659.6 676.8 710 659.6 659.6 1999 659.6 58.09 659.6 676.8 710 659.6 659.6 2000 659.6 42.85 659.6 676.8 710 659.6 659.6 2001 659.6 58.57 659.6 676.8 710 659.6 659.6 2002 659.6 58.54 659.6 676.8 710 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 659.6 79.47 659.6 659.6 77.52 659.6 659.6 49.59 659.6 659.6 23.56 659.6 659.6 33.43 659.6 659.6 93.15 659.6 659.6 135.47 659.6 659.6 46.64 659.6 659.6 36.45 659.6 659.6 27.39 659.6 659.6 37.33 659.6 659.6 33.87 659.6 659.6 AEA Energy & Environment Page 13 Solid fuels 3 Table 3.9: GCVs reported in the DTI DUKES publication Source Agriculture Collieries Domestic I&S (blast furnace) I&S (combustion) Lime Production (combustion) Miscellaneous Other Industry (combustion) Public services Railways (stationary sources) Autogenerators Cement (Fuel combustion) DUKES class Agriculture Collieries House Coal Coke Ovens: Home & Imports Iron and steel industry Other industries 1990 28.9 28.6 30.2 31.2 1991 28.9 28 30.2 31.4 1992 28.9 26.8 30.2 31.45 1993 28.7 26.8 30.2 31.46 1994 28.8 28.2 29.8 31.43 1995 29 28.2 30.4 31.4 1996 28.9 26.2 30.6 32 1997 29.1 27.8 30.6 32 1998 28.5 29.6 30.9 32 1999 28.9 29.3 30.9 30.5 2000 29.2 29.6 30.9 30.4 2001 29.8 29.8 30.9 30.5 2002 28.5 29.7 31.1 30.5 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 29.4 31.5 31.3 31.3 31.3 30.7 30.7 29.4 30.4 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.8 27.7 27.3 27 26.9 26.6 26.8 26.7 26.5 Other Consumers Other Industries 27.5 27.8 27.5 27.8 27.5 27.8 28.7 28.1 28.8 28.8 28.9 27.7 30.4 27.3 29.3 27 29.2 26.9 29.1 26.6 29.2 26.8 29.2 26.7 30.1 26.5 Other Consumers Other Consumers 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 30.4 30.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 30.1 30.1 Other Industries Other Industries 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.1 28.8 28.8 27.7 27.7 27.3 27.3 27 27 26.9 26.9 26.6 26.6 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.5 Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page 14 Solid fuels 3 Table 3.10: Ratios of GCVs relative to 1990 Source Agriculture Collieries Domestic I&S (blast furnace) I&S (combustion) Lime Production (combustion) Miscellaneous Other Industry (combustion) Public services Railways (stationary sources) Autogenerators Review of Carbon Emission Factors 1990 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1991 1.00 0.98 1.00 1.01 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1992 1.00 0.94 1.00 1.01 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1993 0.99 0.94 1.00 1.01 0.99 1.01 1.04 1.01 1.04 1.04 1.01 1994 1.00 0.99 0.99 1.01 1.02 1.04 1.05 1.04 1.05 1.05 1.04 1995 1.00 0.99 1.01 1.01 1.09 1.00 1.05 1.00 1.05 1.05 1.00 AEA Energy & Environment 1996 1.00 0.92 1.01 1.03 1.08 0.98 1.11 0.98 1.11 1.11 0.98 1997 1.01 0.97 1.01 1.03 1.08 0.97 1.07 0.97 1.07 1.07 0.97 1998 0.99 1.04 1.02 1.03 1.08 0.97 1.06 0.97 1.06 1.06 0.97 1999 1.00 1.02 1.02 0.98 1.06 0.96 1.06 0.96 1.06 1.06 0.96 2000 1.01 1.04 1.02 0.97 1.06 0.96 1.06 0.96 1.06 1.06 0.96 2001 1.03 1.04 1.02 0.98 1.02 0.96 1.06 0.96 1.06 1.06 0.96 2002 0.99 1.04 1.03 0.98 1.05 0.95 1.09 0.96 1.09 1.09 0.95 Page 15 Solid fuels 3 Table 3.11: Revised carbon emission factors for coal Source Agriculture Collieries Domestic I&S (blast furnace) I&S (combustion) Lime Production (combustion) Miscellaneous Other Industry (combustion) Public services Railways (stationary sources) Autogenerators 1990 659.60 659.60 676.80 659.60 659.60 1991 659.60 645.76 676.80 659.60 659.60 1992 659.60 618.09 676.80 659.60 659.60 1993 655.04 618.09 676.80 655.04 666.72 1994 657.32 650.37 667.84 715.23 671.01 683.33 1995 661.88 650.37 681.28 714.55 718.94 657.23 1996 659.60 604.25 685.76 728.21 714.38 647.74 1997 664.16 641.15 685.76 728.21 714.38 640.62 1998 650.47 682.66 692.49 728.21 714.38 638.25 1999 659.60 675.74 692.49 694.07 700.38 631.13 2000 666.45 682.66 692.49 691.79 700.38 635.87 2001 680.14 687.28 692.49 694.07 671.01 633.50 2002 650.47 684.97 696.97 694.07 693.84 628.76 659.60 659.60 659.60 659.60 659.60 659.60 688.38 666.72 690.78 683.33 693.18 657.23 729.16 647.74 702.77 640.62 700.38 638.25 697.98 631.13 700.38 635.87 700.38 633.50 721.96 633.50 659.60 659.60 659.60 659.60 659.60 659.60 688.38 688.38 690.78 690.78 693.18 693.18 729.16 729.16 702.77 702.77 700.38 700.38 697.98 697.98 700.38 700.38 700.38 700.38 721.96 721.96 659.60 659.60 659.60 666.72 683.33 657.23 647.74 640.62 638.25 631.13 635.87 633.50 628.76 Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page 16 Solid fuels 3 3.3.3.2 Cement production We contacted the trade association for the UK cement producers - the British Cement Association (BCA) – and the National Energy Manager for Lafarge cement to gather information about the current usage and combustion conditions of coal in the cement sector. Cement kilns operate at high temperatures (for example, temperatures in the sintering zone of rotary kilns are around 1,450°C) and so fuels will be almost completely oxidised, and effectively 100% oxidation is achieved. The BCA indicated that the UK cement industry tends to now source their coal from abroad, whereas the current GHG inventory assumed UK coal is consumed. Therefore, the approach of directly scaling the current carbon factors to GCVs was felt to be unsuitable for this industry. The time series of carbon emission factors (see Table 3.12) for coal used in the cement sector was provided by Rushworth (2004) and was based on the empirical relationship between calorific values and carbon emissions established using actual data for the years 2000 to 2004. Calorific values for mineral products for the years 1990 to 1999 were taken from DUKES (DTI, 2004) Table A2. These calorific values are supplied to the DTI by the BCA and therefore are consistent with the empirical relationship derived. Table 3.12: Carbon emission factors and GCV for coal used by the UK cement industry Emission factor kt/Mt GCV GJ per tonne 3.3.4 1990 757.8 1991 757.8 1992 757.8 1993 792.7 1994 760.4 1995 728.2 1996 736.3 1997 725.5 1998 714.8 1999 717.5 2000 725.5 2001 725.5 2002 725.5 2003 749.7 2004 744.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 29.5 28.3 27.1 27.4 27.0 26.6 26.7 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.9 27.7 Coke Calorific values for coke remained constant throughout the time series and so the factors remained unaltered. 3.3.5 Anthracite In the UK inventory, carbon emissions from anthracite occur from domestic sources only. Anthracite emission factors were scaled to GCVs as described for coal. Table 4.13 presents the carbon emission factors found in the current inventory, corresponding GCVs, and revised of emission factors. Table 3.13: Current and proposed emission factors for anthracite (kt/Mt) Current EF 1990 813.4 1991 813.4 1992 813.4 1993 813.4 1994 813.4 1995 813.4 1996 813.4 1997 813.4 1998 813.4 1999 813.4 2000 813.4 2001 813.4 2002 813.4 GCV (GJ/t) 33.6 33.6 33.5 33.5 33.6 34.0 33.9 33.9 34.1 33.5 33.6 33.9 33.9 Proposed EF 813.4 813.4 811.0 811.0 813.4 823.1 820.7 820.7 825.5 811.0 813.4 820.7 820.7 3.3.5 Petroleum coke 3.3.5.1 Non-cement industry consumers The UK Petroleum Industry Association (UKPIA) provided an updated estimate for the carbon factor for UK petroleum coke (UKPIA, 2004). The estimate was based on Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page 17 Solid fuels 3 analytical results of the carbon contents of UK petroleum coke. UKPIA recommended that the new factor should be 930 ktC/Mt across the whole time series, but this factor was not used for petroleum coke used by the cement sector. 3.3.5.2 Cement industry The cement industry use petroleum coke, and we consulted the BCA about the sources and carbon contents of the fuel consumed. The BCA reported that all the petroleum coke consumed is not sourced from UK refineries, but is imported, and so the carbon emission factor supplied by UKPIA would not be applicable to the petroleum coke used by the UK cement industry. The BCA provided measured carbon contents for petroleum coke for 2000 to 2004. These data were averaged, and applied across the time series, from 1990 to 2004. The industry normally tightly controls the energy content of its fuels and the industry’s European database shows emission factors across samples to be very similar. Therefore, applying a constant CEF to the time series seems a reasonable assumption. The BCA recommended a carbon emission factor of 829.6 ktC/Mt for the cement sector and this has been adopted. 3.4 EFFECT OF REVISING THE CEFs FOR SOLID FUELS ON CARON EMISSIONS 3.4.1 Coal – ESI sector Tables 3.14 to 3.16 present the effects of introducing the revised coal CEFs for the ESI into the 2002 GHG inventory. Table 3.14 displays the difference between overall UK carbon emissions from coal combustion before and after the CEF update for the ESI sector. Table 3.15 shows the difference in the ESI sector only and finally Table 3.16 displays the overall differences observed in carbon emissions (from the combustion of all fuels) in the UK. Table 3.14: Changes in carbon emissions from coal (total for all sources consuming coal) after applying the revised coal CEF to the ESI (Mt) Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Emissions in the original 2002 GHG inventory 57.25 56.95 53.60 43.31 42.20 39.71 36.49 31.72 31.97 27.90 29.34 33.09 30.68 Emissions using revised CEFs % change to coal emissions 58.64 58.89 55.21 46.65 43.38 40.31 37.68 31.11 33.68 29.19 30.72 34.99 32.66 2.43 3.41 3.01 2.96 2.79 1.52 3.27 4.36 5.35 4.62 4.69 5.75 6.48 Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page 18 Solid fuels 3 Table 3.15: Changes in carbon emissions from the ESI sector after applying the revised coal CEF to the ESI (Mt) Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Emissions in the original 2002 GHG inventory 48.56 48.25 45.29 37.70 35.68 34.08 31.43 26.66 27.43 23.28 26.33 28.99 27.14 Emissions using revised CEFs % change to ESI coal emissions 49.95 50.19 46.90 39.04 36.85 34.69 32.62 28.04 29.14 24.57 27.71 30.90 29.13 2.86 4.02 3.56 3.56 3.30 1.77 3.80 5.19 6.23 5.54 5.23 6.56 7.32 Table 3.16: Changes to overall UK carbon emissions after applying the revised coal CEF to the ESI (Mt) Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Emissions in the original 2002 GHG inventory 164.63 165.66 161.62 157.45 156.26 153.83 159.35 152.65 153.46 151.13 152.17 155.75 150.26 Emissions using revised CEFs % change to emissions 166.02 167.60 163.23 158.79 157.44 154.43 160.54 154.03 155.17 152.42 153.54 157.65 152.25 0.84 1.17 1.00 0.85 0.75 0.39 0.75 0.91 1.11 0.85 0.90 1.22 1.32 Table 3.17 displays the overall percentage changes in carbon emissions between 1990 and 2002. It shows the decline in overall carbon emissions from the 2002 GHG inventory (from 1990 to 2002), and the decline in the carbon emissions after the revised CEF has been applied in the ESI sector. The effect of introducing the new CEF into the ESI sector is to reduce the decline in carbon emissions, although the effect is small. Table 3.17: Percentage change in overall carbon emissions between 1990 and 2002 GHG inventory Original 2002 GHG inventory 2002 GHG inventory and updated coal ESI factors Review of Carbon Emission Factors % change -8.73 -8.29 AEA Energy & Environment Page 19 Solid fuels 3 3.4.2 Coal, anthracite, coke - other sectors Tables 3.18 to 3.20 present the effects of introducing the revised coal (non-ESI sectors), anthracite and coke CEFs into the GHG inventory. Table 3.18: Changes in carbon emissions from total coal consumption (Mt) Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Emissions in the original 2002 GHG inventory 57.25 56.95 53.60 45.31 42.20 39.71 36.49 31.72 31.97 27.90 29.34 33.09 30.68 Emissions using scaled CEFs % change to coal emissions 57.76 57.39 53.94 45.73 42.66 39.98 36.86 32.06 32.30 27.89 29.34 33.09 30.67 0.88 0.77 0.64 0.92 1.08 0.69 1.02 1.07 1.03 -0.04 -0.02 -0.02 -0.03 Table 3.19: Changes in carbon emissions from total anthracite consumption (Mt) Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Emissions in the original 2002 GHG inventory 0.97 1.32 1.06 1.57 1.62 1.18 1.12 1.04 0.78 0.73 0.75 0.90 0.65 Review of Carbon Emission Factors Emissions using scaled CEFs % change to anthracite emissions 0.97 1.32 1.06 1.57 1.62 1.19 1.13 1.05 0.79 0.73 0.75 0.91 0.66 0.00 0.00 -0.30 -0.30 0.00 1.19 0.89 0.89 1.49 -0.28 0.00 0.89 0.89 AEA Energy & Environment Page 20 Solid fuels 3 Table 3.20: Changes in carbon emissions from total coke consumption (Mt) Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Emissions in the original 2002 GHG inventory 2.17 1.81 1.88 1.63 1.45 1.24 1.32 1.10 1.09 1.39 1.36 1.30 1.01 Emissions using scaled factors % change to coke emissions 1.38 1.04 1.16 0.90 0.70 0.46 0.50 0.25 0.27 0.62 0.64 0.70 0.48 -36.10 -42.51 -38.47 -44.54 -51.70 -62.82 -62.17 -77.11 -74.72 -55.60 -53.04 -46.24 -52.72 Although the CEFs for coke remained unaltered from those given in the 2002 GHG inventory, emissions have changed due to the assumptions made about the carbon contents of other fuels. The change arises for coke used in blast furnaces and also for coal use in coke ovens. The important point about these source/fuel combinations is that they are artificial devices introduced into the UK GHG inventory many years ago to ensure that carbon balances for processes in steelworks balanced correctly. For example, coke ovens involve carbon input as coal and carbon output as coke, breeze and coke oven gas. The carbon content of these inputs/outputs was always fixed and the carbon would never balance. A correction was therefore applied in the form of the two source/fuel combinations, one for the coke oven carbon balance and one for the blast furnace carbon balance. These corrections are, effectively the difference between two large but similar numbers and so even a small percentage change in one of these large numbers leads to a large percentage change in the correction. This methodology will be updated in future versions of the GHG inventory in order to eliminate the need for these corrections. Adopting this approach would not alter the overall UK carbon emission but would change the detailed allocation of emissions to individual sources, providing more accurate allocation. Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page 21 Solid fuels 3 3.4.3 Petroleum coke Table 3.21 displays the changes in emissions caused by the update of the petroleum coke carbon emission factors. Table 3.21: Changes in carbon emissions from total petroleum coke consumption (Mt) Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 3.4.4 Emissions in the original 2002 GHG inventory 0.78 0.83 1.28 1.38 1.39 1.62 1.76 1.72 1.55 1.35 1.27 0.93 1.09 Emissions using UKPIA and cement industry (2004) CEFs 0.91 0.97 1.44 1.55 1.55 1.81 1.95 1.91 1.74 1.53 1.44 1.04 1.22 % change 16.25 16.25 12.70 12.23 11.27 11.41 10.64 11.35 12.05 13.44 12.78 11.38 11.18 Overall change to carbon emissions resulting from revisions to the CEFs of the solid fuels Table 3.22 displays the gross overall emission changes in carbon emissions caused by updates to the solid fuel factors in the 2002 GHG inventory. The effect of introducing the revised solid fuel CEFs is to increase emissions of carbon from the inventory, across the time series, by approximately 1% for each year. Table 3.22: Overall emission changes (gross) caused by revisions to the CEFs of the solid fuels (MtC) Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Emissions in the original 2002 GHG inventory 164.63 165.66 161.62 157.45 156.26 153.83 159.35 152.65 153.46 151.13 152.17 155.75 150.26 Emissions using updated solid fuel factors % change 165.87 167.40 163.01 158.64 157.31 154.12 160.29 153.73 154.89 151.82 152.98 157.16 151.84 0.75 1.05 0.86 0.76 0.67 0.19 0.59 0.71 0.93 0.45 0.53 0.91 1.05 Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page 22 Gaseous fuels 4 = 4 Gaseous fuels 4.1 INTRODUCTION Within the UK the main gaseous fuel used is natural gas and this accounts for 38% of total UK carbon emissions. Smaller emissions arise from blast furnace gas (2% of total UK carbon emissions), Other Petroleum Gas (OPG) (1% of total UK carbon emissions) and Coke Oven Gas (less than 1% of total carbon emissions). Table 4.1 shows the sources of natural gas within the inventory and their overall percentage contribution to natural gas emissions in 2002. Table 4.1: Contribution of sources to natural gas emissions in 2002 Source Domestic Power stations Other industry (combustion) Miscellaneous Public services Autogenerators Iron and steel (combustion) Gas production Ammonia and feedstock Cement (fuel combustion) Refineries(combustion) Railways (stationary sources) Agriculture Lime production(combustion) Iron and steel (blast furnaces) SSF production Nuclear fuel production, Coke production Collieries % contribution to overall natural gas emission 34 26 14 6 4 3 2 1 1 Minor emissions of less than 1% each arise from these sources The main source of emissions for both blast furnace gas and coke oven gas is the iron and steel industry. This industry accounts for 96% of carbon emissions from blast furnace gas and 52% of emissions from coke oven gas. The majority of the remaining emissions from coke oven gas arise from coke production. The main source of emissions from OPG is from combustion at refineries. This accounts for 88% of emissions from OPG. 4.2 CEFs OF GASEOUS FUELS USED IN THE 2002 GHG INVENTORY 4.2.1 Natural Gas The current carbon emission factor for natural gas is 1.501 kt/Mth (52.16 t CO2/TJ gross) and was supplied by British Gas in 1992. This emission factor Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page 23 Gaseous fuels 4 = is applied across the time series from 1990 to 2002 for all the sources listed in Table 4.1. 4.2.2 Coke oven gas The current coke oven gas carbon emission factor was supplied by British coal in 1989. The factor used is 1.599 kt/Mt and is applied across the whole time series of emissions. 4.2.3 Blast furnace gas The current blast furnace gas carbon emission factor was supplied by British Coal in 1989. The factor used is 6.273 kt/Mt and is applied across the whole time series of emissions. 4.2.4 Other petroleum gas (OPG) The current OPG carbon emission factor was supplied by the UK Petroleum Institute Association (UKPIA) in 1989. The factor used is 1.627 kt/Mtherm and is applied across the whole time series of emissions. 4.3 REVISED CEFs 4.3.1 Fraction of fuel unoxidised after combustion The CEFs in this section account for the carbon left unoxidised after combustion. The assumption is that the oxidation is 100%. 4.3.2 Natural gas A time series of carbon emission factors (CEF) for natural gas was obtained from Transco (2004). Data was provided for the years 1990, 1994, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2003 and is displayed in Table 4.2. Table 4.2: Year 1990 1994 1996 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 Natural gas emission factors (Transco, 2004) Mean Carbon Emission Factor tCO2/TJ(gross) 50.37 50.76 50.99 51.25 51.48 51.28 51.39 51.45 Details of the calculation procedures can be found in Transco (2004bMPR039). Transco (2004a-MPR046) state that there are two main factors that contribute to the variability in annual mean CEFs. Firstly, the increasing influence over time from gas entering the supply network at the St Fergus entry point in Scotland, and secondly, the increasing CEF at this point. It is suggested that the gas quality changes observed at this point reflect changes in the economics of ethylene production and prevailing international factors (e.g. 1990 Gulf War). Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page 24 Gaseous fuels 4 = The inventory requires emission factors for every year from 1990-2002. We concluded that the best method to derive CEFs for the years 1991, 92, 93, 95, 97 and 2001, was to linearly interpolate between the data for the years provided. This decision was made based on the observation that there was a statistically significant correlation between the year and the CEF measured in that year; see Figure 4.1. Figure 4.1: Variation in the natural gas CEF with time (data supplied by Transco, 2004a) 51.8 CEF (tCO2/TJ) 51.6 y = 0.0858x - 120.31 R2 = 0.8972 51.4 51.2 51 50.8 50.6 50.4 50.2 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 year Linearly interpolating between the data supplied by Transco provided the following CEFs for the intervening years: Table 4.3: Year 1991 1992 1993 1995 1997 2001 Linearly interpolated emission factors for natural gas CEF (tCO2/TJ (gross)) 50.47 50.57 50.66 50.88 51.12 51.34 Within the inventory, data is held in ktC/Mtherm for natural gas. The CEFs were converted from TJ to Therms using the following expression: CEF ktC/Mth = ((A*(12/44))/0.009478)/1000 where A = CEF tCO2/TJ (gross) 0.009478 = Conversion factor for TJ to Mtherms (DTI, 2003) The time series resulting from this calculation is shown in Table 4.4. Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page 25 Gaseous fuels 4 = Table 4.4: Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 4.3.3 CEFs for natural gas (ktC/Mtherm) CEF ktC/Mtherm 1.4494 1.4522 1.4550 1.4578 1.4606 1.4639 1.4672 1.4710 1.4747 1.4813 1.4756 1.4772 1.4787 1.4805 Coke oven gas Updated emission factors for coke oven gas were obtained from Corus (2004). The factor recommended for use across the time series was 1.203 kt/Mt. 4.3.4 Blast furnace gas Updated emission factors for blast furnace gas were obtained from Corus (2004). The factor recommended for use across the time series was 7.459 kt/Mt. 4.3.5 Other petroleum gas An updated emission factor for other petroleum gas was obtained from UKPIA (2004). The factor recommended for use across the time series was 1.64398 kt/Mtherm. 4.4 EFFECT OF REVISING THE CEFs FOR GASEOUS FUELS ON CARBON EMISSIONS 4.4.1 Natural gas Tables 4.5 to 4.7 display the results of introducing the new CEFs (Transco, 2004) for natural gas into the 2002 GHG inventory. Table 4.5 shows the difference between natural gas emissions before and after the CEF update with Table 4.7 showing the overall effect the update had on overall carbon emissions in the UK. Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page 26 Gaseous fuels 4 = Table 4.5: Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Emissions in the original 2002 GHG inventory 30.35 32.65 32.81 36.94 39.46 41.17 48.91 49.90 52.19 55.53 57.13 57.03 56.47 Table 4.6: Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Changes in carbon emissions after applying the revised natural gas CEF, from natural gas only (Mt) Emissions using Transco (2004) factors % change 29.39 31.67 31.90 36.00 38.53 41.26 47.94 49.01 51.37 54.87 56.24 56.20 55.70 -3.17 -3.01 -2.77 -2.55 -2.36 -2.16 -1.98 -1.78 -1.57 -1.19 -1.54 -1.45 -1.35 Changes to overall UK carbon emissions after applying the revised natural gas CEF (Mt) Emissions in the original 2002 GHG inventory 161.75 162.75 158.66 154.43 153.19 150.68 156.18 149.49 150.32 147.99 148.99 152.58 147.08 Emissions using Transco (2004) factors % change 160.79 161.77 157.76 153.49 152.25 149.77 155.21 148.60 149.50 147.33 148.10 151.76 146.31 -0.60 -0.60 -0.57 -0.61 -0.61 -0.60 -0.62 -0.60 -0.55 -0.45 -0.59 -0.54 -0.52 Table 4.7 displays the overall percentage changes in carbon emissions between 1990 and 2002, and the change in the carbon emissions after the revised natural gas CEF has been applied. The effect of introducing the new CEF is negligible. Table 4.7: Percentage change in overall carbon emissions between 1990 and 2002 after introducing the revised natural gas CEF 4.4.1.1 Database Original 2002 GHG inventory 2002 GHG inventory and updated natural gas CEF factors Review of Carbon Emission Factors % change -9.07% -9.00% AEA Energy & Environment Page 27 Gaseous fuels 4 = The tables in the following sections set out the effects of introducing the CEFs for selected gaseous fuels into the 2002 GHG inventory. 4.4.2 Blast furnace gas Table 4.8: Year Changes to carbon emissions following revision of the blast furnace gas CEF (MtC) 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Emissions in the original 2002 GHG inventory 4.14 4.08 3.82 3.83 3.97 4.13 4.34 4.47 4.29 4.10 3.82 3.18 2.83 4.4.3 Coke oven gas Table 4.9: Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Emissions using Corus (2004) CEFs % change 4.92 4.85 4.54 4.55 4.72 4.91 5.16 5.32 5.11 4.87 4.54 3.78 3.36 18.91 18.91 18.91 18.91 18.91 18.91 18.91 18.91 18.91 18.91 18.91 18.91 18.91 Changes to carbon emissions following revision of the coke oven gas CEF (MtC) Emissions in the original 2002 GHG inventory 0.95 0.87 0.79 0.75 0.74 0.71 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.71 0.73 0.64 0.53 Review of Carbon Emission Factors Emissions using Corus (2004) CEFs % change 0.72 0.66 0.60 0.57 0.56 0.54 0.60 0.58 0.58 0.54 0.55 0.48 0.41 -24.18 -24.20 -24.19 -24.15 -24.18 -24.03 -23.13 -23.78 -23.12 -24.33 -24.63 -24.28 -24.24 AEA Energy & Environment Page 28 Gaseous fuels 4 = 4.4.4 Other petroleum gas (OPG) Table 4.10: Changes to carbon emissions following revision of the OPG CEF (MtC) Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 4.4.5 Emissions in the original 2002 GHG inventory 2.39 2.37 2.35 2.52 2.61 2.73 2.74 2.53 2.40 2.36 2.39 2.27 2.03 Emissions using UKPIA (2004) CEFs % change 2.42 2.40 2.38 2.54 2.63 2.75 2.77 2.56 2.43 2.38 2.41 2.29 2.05 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 Overall change to carbon emissions resulting from revisions to the CEFs of the gaseous fuels Table 4.11 shows the overall effect of updating all the CEFs for gaseous fuels on the carbon emissions from the 2002 GHG inventory. The effect of introducing the revised gaseous fuel CEFs is to slightly decrease emissions of carbon from the inventory, across the time series, by no more than 0.25% with the greatest effect in the early and later years of the inventory. The effect of revising the gaseous fuel CEFs is much smaller than revising the CEFs of the solid fuels. Table 4.11: Overall effect on UK carbon emission totals using updated gaseous fuels CEFs (MtC) Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Emissions in the original 2002 GHG inventory 161.75 162.75 178.66 154.43 153.19 150.68 156.18 149.49 150.32 147.99 148.99 152.58 147.08 Emissions using updated gaseous factors % change 161.36 162.35 158.31 154.05 152.85 150.41 155.88 149.29 150.15 147.95 148.67 152.23 146.74 -0.24 -0.24 -0.22 -0.24 -0.22 -0.18 -0.19 -0.13 -0.11 -0.02 -0.21 -0.23 -0.23 Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page 29 Liquid fuels 5 = 5 Liquid fuels 5.1 INTRODUCTION There are a number of liquid fuels used within the UK. The major liquid fuels that are used are petrol, DERV, gas oil, burning oil and fuel oil. The percentage contribution to UK emissions listed in Table 2.2. Other fuels that are used include Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF), premium burning oil, waste oils, aviation spirit, LPG and naphtha. Table 5.1 displays the main sectors using each fuel and their percentage contribution to overall emissions from that fuel. Table 5.1: Sources of carbon from liquid fuels in the UK Fuel Source Petrol Road transport Other industry (off road) Road transport Domestic house and garden Power Stations Refineries (combustion) Public Services Miscellaneous Other industry (combustion) Iron and Steel (combustion) Coastal Refineries Miscellaneous Public services Domestic Agriculture Other industry (combustion) Iron and Steel (combustion) Shipping, Naval Railways Coastal Fishing Agricultural power units Other industry off-road Domestic Other Industry (Combustion) Railways Public Services Miscellaneous Domestic Aviation Military aviation Domestic Aviation Domestic Refineries (combustion) Gas Separation Plant (combustion) Domestic Other Industry (combustion) Road Transport Refineries (combustion) Cement (fuel combustion) DERV Fuel oil Gas oil Burning oil Aviation turbine fuel Aviation spirit Burning oil (premium) LPG Naphtha Waste oils Review of Carbon Emission Factors % contribution to overall fuel emission in UK reported in national totals to the IPCC 99 1 99.9 0.1 20 53 4 2 14 5 1 2 6 9 3 2 32 3 4 4 8 1 4 19 71 28 0.3 0.3 0.3 55 45 100 100 1 1 29 61 8 100 100 AEA Energy & Environment Page 30 Liquid fuels 5 = 5.2 CEFs OF LIQUID FUELS USED IN THE 2002 GHG INVENTORY All the current factors for liquid fuels were supplied to AEA Technology by the United Kingdom Petroleum Industry Association (UKPIA) in 1989. Table 5.2 shows each liquid fuel in the inventory and its corresponding emission factor. These emission factors apply across the time series of emissions from 1990 to 2002 inclusive. Table 5.2: Carbon emission factors for liquid fuels in the 2002 GHG inventory Fuel Aviation spirit Aviation turbine fuel Burning oil Burning oil premium DERV Fuel oil Gas oil LPG Naphtha Petrol Waste oils Current carbon emission factor (ktC/Mt) 859 859 859 859 857 850 857 1.712ktC/Mtherm 940 855 859 These factors are applied across all sources for each fuel (as listed in Table 5.1). 5.3 REVISED CEFs Updated emission factors for liquid fuels were obtained from UKPIA (2004) who carried out a survey of the carbon contents of selected fuels. Table 5.3 shows the updated factors that were supplied. The CEFs of fuels not included in this list remain unchanged and were left equal to the values in the 2002 GHG inventory. A summary of the reasons for changes to the factors is given in the notes below the table and more detailed information is given in UKPIA (2004). Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page 31 Liquid fuels 5 = Table 5.2: Fuel Naphtha Aviation spirit Diesel Gas oil Fuel oil Updated emission factors for liquid fuels (KteC/Mte), as supplied by UKPIA (2004) 1990 854 853 864 869 867 1991 854 853 864 869 868 1992 854 853 864 869 865 1993 854 853 864 869 865 1994 854 853 864 869 865 1995 854 853 864 869 865 1996 854 853 864 869 865 1997 854 853 864 870 868 1998 854 853 864 870 871 1999 854 853 863 870 874 2000 854 853 863 870 875 2001 854 853 863 870 875 2002 854 853 863 870 877 2003 854 853 863 870 879 Notes: • Naphtha and aviation spirit assumed to be constant and based on UKPIA 2004 survey results • Petrol is assumed to be constant and unchanged from current CEF assumed, and these assumptions are supported by UKPIA 2004 survey results • Diesel is corrected for changes in sulphur content and density over time using smoothed sulphur contents from the annual UKPIA survey of sulphur contents and density from DTI DUKES • Gas oil and fuel oil corrected for changes in sulphur content over time using smoothed sulphur contents from the annual UKPIA survey of sulphur contents Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page 32 Liquid fuels 5 = 5.3.1 Fraction of fuel unoxidised after combustion The CEFs in this section account for the carbon left unoxidised after combustion. A short review was completed to determine what a suitable oxidation factor should be. During this review, we contacted the UK Petroleum Industries Association (UKPIA) to seek their view on the appropriate oxidation factors; considered the views of experts involved in the mobile combustion chapter of the 2006 IPPC guidelines; consulted with our transport sector, Tim Murrells, for his views on the mobile combustion. The details of this review are given in Appendix 2. We concluded that the fraction oxidised for liquid fuels should remain at 100% across the time series, primarily because of the uncertainty in the estimates of the fractions of fuels unoxidised and the difficulties of generating an accurate and defensible time series of unoxidised fractions for each fuel used in the GHG inventory from 1990 to the most current year. 5.4 EFFECT OF REVISING THE CEFs FOR LIQUID FUELS ON CARBON EMISSIONS The tables in the following sections set out the effects of introducing the CEFs for liquid fuels into the 2002 GHG inventory. 5.4.1 Naphtha Table 5.4: Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Changes to carbon emissions following revisions to the naptha CEF (MtC) Emissions in the original 2002 GHG inventory 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.05 0.02 Emissions using UKPIA (2004) naptha CEF % change 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.05 0.02 -9.14 -9.14 -9.14 -9.14 -9.14 -9.14 -9.14 -9.14 -9.14 -9.14 -9.14 -9.14 -9.14 Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page 33 Liquid fuels 5 = 5.4.2 Aviation spirit Table 56.5: Changes to carbon emissions following revisions to the aviation spirit CEF (MtC) Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 5.4.3 Emissions in the original 2002 GHG inventory 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.04 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 % change 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.04 -1.38 -1.38 -1.38 -1.38 -1.38 -1.38 -1.38 -1.38 -1.38 -1.38 -1.38 -1.38 -1.38 Fuel Oil Table 5.6: Year Emissions using UKPIA (2004) aviation spirit CEF Changes to carbon emissions following revisions to the fuel oil CEF (MtC) Emissions in the original 2002 GHG inventory 11.7 11.6 10.5 9.95 8.92 7.66 7.04 5.31 4.54 3.78 2.80 3.45 3.24 Emissions using UKPIA (2004) fuel oil CEF % change 12.0 11.9 10.7 10.1 9.08 7.80 7.16 5.43 4.66 3.89 2.89 3.55 3.35 2.00 2.12 1.76 1.76 1.76 1.76 1.76 2.12 2.47 2.82 2.94 2.94 3.18 Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page 34 Liquid fuels 5 = 5.4.4 Gas oil Table 5.7: Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 5.4.5 Emissions in the original 2002 GHG inventory 7.27 7.27 7.11 6.99 6.73 6.51 6.87 6.64 6.50 6.02 5.90 5.88 5.54 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 5.4.6 Emissions using UKPIA (2004) gas oil CEF % change 7.37 7.38 7.21 7.09 6.83 6.60 6.96 6.75 6.59 6.11 5.99 5.97 5.63 1.30 1.40 1.35 1.36 1.39 1.40 1.37 1.48 1.18 1.48 1.52 1.52 1.52 Diesel oil Table 5.8: Year Changes to carbon emissions following revisions to the gas oil CEF (MtC) Changes to carbon emissions following revisions to the diesel oil CEF (MtC) Emissions in the original 2002 GHG inventory 9.13 9.16 9.54 10.1 11.0 11.5 12.3 12.8 12.9 13.2 13.3 14.0 15.1 Emissions using UKPIA (2004) diesel oil CEF % change 9.20 9.24 9.62 10.2 11.1 11.6 12.4 12.9 13.0 13.3 13.4 14.1 15.2 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 Overall change to carbon emissions resulting from revisions to the CEFs of the liquid fuels Table 5.9 displays the overall effect that updating the liquid fuel CEFs has on overall inventory carbon emissions from the 2002 GHG inventory. Introducing the revised liquid fuel CEFs slightly increases the emissions of carbon from Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page 35 Liquid fuels 5 = the inventory across the time series, by no more than 0.25%, with the greatest effect in the early years of the inventory. Table 5.9: Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Overall effect on UK carbon emissions using updated liquid fuel CEFs (MtC) Emissions in the original 2002 GHG inventory 164.6 165.6 161.6 157.4 156.2 153.8 159.3 152.6 153.4 151.1 152.1 155.7 150.2 Review of Carbon Emission Factors Emissions using UKPIA (2004) CEFs % change 165.0 166.0 161.9 157.8 156.6 154.1 159.6 152.9 153.7 151.4 152.4 156.0 150.5 0.24 0.25 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.20 0.21 0.20 0.19 0.17 0.18 0.19 AEA Energy & Environment Page 36 Overall effect on carbon emissions 6 = 6 Overall effect on carbon emissions of the revised CEFs The following table displays the overall emissions as a result of revisions to all the solid, liquid and gaseous fuels documented in the report. Emissions are presented in MtC and are gross values. The overall effect is to increase the carbon emissions across the time series, by 1.3% in 1990 (the base year for the sources and fuels considered in this report), and by 1.5% in 2002. Table 6.1: Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 % change 1990-2002 Overall effect on UK carbon emissions after applying all the revised CEFs (MtC) Emissions in the original 2002 GHG inventory 164.6 165.6 161.6 157.4 156.2 153.8 159.3 152.6 153.4 151.1 152.1 155.7 150.2 -8.73% Emissions using updated factors 165.8 167.4 163.0 158.6 157.3 154.1 160.3 153.8 155.0 152.0 152.9 157.0 151.7 -8.50% % change Actual change 0.76 1.07 0.86 0.75 0.67 0.22 0.60 0.78 1.02 0.62 0.50 0.86 1.02 1.25 1.77 1.40 1.17 1.05 0.34 0.96 1.19 1.57 0.93 0.76 1.34 1.52 Tables 6.2 and 6.3 display the emissions, according to fuel type, for the original 2002 GHG inventory, and for 2002 GHG inventory with the updated carbon emission factors. Table 6.4 displays the percentage change overall, and by fuel type. The overall effect of introducing the revised CEFs into the inventory was to slightly increase carbon emission across the time series. Emissions of carbon in 1990 increased by 0.8%, and by 1.0% in 2002. Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page 37 Overall effect of the revised CEFs 6 = Table 6.2: Carbon emissions in the original 2002 GHG inventory (MtC) IPCC Fuel 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Anthracite Aviation Gasoline Blast Furnace Gas Coke Oven Coke Coke Oven Gas Coking Coal Colliery Methane Gas/Diesel Oil Gas Works Gas Jet Gasoline Liquefied Petroleum Gas Lubricants Motor Gasoline Municipal Solid Waste Naphtha Natural Gas Non-Fuel Combustion Non IPCC Orimulsion Other Bituminous Coal Other Kerosene Other Oil Patent Fuel Petroleum Coke Refinery Gas Residual Fuel Oil Scrap Tyres 0.97 0.02 4.14 2.17 0.95 0.45 0.06 16.40 0.00 1.63 0.88 0.28 20.79 0.22 0.02 30.35 10.63 0.08 0.09 56.80 1.77 0.02 0.94 0.78 2.39 11.78 0.00 1.32 0.02 4.08 1.81 0.87 0.38 0.05 16.44 0.00 1.33 1.02 0.26 20.54 0.22 0.03 32.65 9.83 0.08 0.25 56.57 2.05 0.03 0.93 0.83 2.37 11.68 0.00 1.06 0.02 3.82 1.88 0.79 0.28 0.05 16.65 0.00 1.33 0.91 0.27 20.56 0.22 0.03 32.81 9.56 0.08 0.77 53.31 2.12 0.04 0.84 1.28 2.35 10.59 0.00 1.57 0.02 3.83 1.63 0.75 0.29 0.04 17.11 0.00 1.40 0.93 0.28 20.32 0.22 0.02 36.94 9.09 0.08 0.85 45.02 2.25 0.05 0.90 1.38 2.52 9.95 0.00 1.62 0.03 3.97 1.45 0.74 0.29 0.04 17.80 0.00 1.37 0.99 0.28 19.53 0.22 0.02 39.46 9.66 0.08 0.73 41.91 2.28 0.09 0.75 1.39 2.61 8.92 0.05 1.18 0.03 4.13 1.24 0.71 0.35 0.03 18.04 0.00 1.38 0.97 0.31 18.77 0.22 0.00 42.17 8.95 0.08 0.76 39.35 2.38 0.09 0.60 1.62 2.73 7.66 0.06 1.12 0.03 4.34 1.32 0.78 0.32 0.03 19.18 0.00 1.38 1.09 0.30 19.16 0.22 0.00 48.91 9.15 0.08 0.52 36.17 2.87 0.11 0.67 1.76 2.74 7.04 0.09 1.04 0.03 4.47 1.10 0.77 0.40 0.03 19.48 0.00 1.33 1.00 0.30 19.02 0.14 0.02 49.90 9.01 0.08 0.11 31.33 2.87 0.07 0.50 1.72 2.53 5.31 0.09 0.78 0.03 4.29 1.09 0.76 0.39 0.02 19.47 0.00 1.34 1.00 0.28 18.68 0.20 0.02 52.19 9.07 0.08 0.00 31.58 3.07 0.06 0.50 1.55 2.40 4.54 0.06 0.73 0.04 4.10 1.39 0.71 0.49 0.02 19.31 0.00 1.31 0.96 0.27 18.63 0.19 0.02 55.53 8.75 0.08 0.00 27.41 3.12 0.07 0.45 1.35 2.36 3.78 0.05 0.75 0.04 3.82 1.36 0.73 0.37 0.02 19.30 0.00 1.26 0.92 0.28 18.47 0.20 0.02 57.13 8.17 0.08 0.00 28.97 3.30 0.09 0.41 1.27 2.39 2.80 0.02 0.90 0.05 3.18 1.30 0.64 0.46 0.02 19.95 0.00 1.31 1.01 0.28 17.90 0.22 0.05 57.03 7.95 0.08 0.00 32.63 3.65 0.11 0.38 0.93 2.27 3.45 0.02 0.65 0.04 2.83 1.01 0.53 0.38 0.02 20.67 0.00 1.37 0.88 0.29 16.89 0.24 0.03 56.47 7.45 0.07 0.00 30.29 3.31 0.11 0.33 1.09 2.03 3.24 0.02 164.6 165.7 161.6 157.4 156.3 153.8 159.3 152.6 153.5 151.1 152.2 155.8 150.3 Total emissions (ktC) Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page 38 Overall effect of the revised CEFs 6 = Table 6.3: Carbon emissions after introducing CEFs for solid, liquid and gaseous fuels (MtC) into the 2002 GHG inventory IPCC Fuel 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Anthracite Aviation Gasoline Blast Furnace Gas Coke Oven Coke Coke Oven Gas Coking Coal Colliery Methane Gas/Diesel Oil Gas Works Gas Jet Gasoline Liquefied Petroleum Gas Lubricants Motor Gasoline Municipal Solid Waste Naphtha Natural Gas Non-Fuel Combustion Non IPCC Orimulsion Other Bituminous Coal Other Kerosene Other Oil Patent Fuel Petroleum Coke Refinery Gas Residual Fuel Oil Scrap Tyres 0.97 0.02 4.92 1.38 0.72 0.74 0.06 16.57 0 1.63 0.88 0.28 20.79 0.22 0.02 29.39 10.63 0.08 0.09 58.41 1.77 0.02 0.94 0.91 2.42 12.02 0 1.32 0.02 4.85 1.04 0.66 0.65 0.05 16.62 0 1.33 1.02 0.26 20.54 0.22 0.03 31.67 9.83 0.08 0.25 58.69 2.05 0.03 0.93 0.97 2.4 11.93 0 1.06 0.02 4.54 1.16 0.6 0.52 0.05 16.82 0 1.33 0.91 0.27 20.56 0.22 0.02 31.9 9.56 0.08 0.77 55.03 2.12 0.04 0.84 1.44 2.38 10.78 0 1.57 0.02 4.55 0.9 0.57 0.52 0.04 17.29 0 1.4 0.93 0.28 20.32 0.22 0.02 36 9.09 0.08 0.85 46.55 2.25 0.05 0.9 1.55 2.54 10.13 0 1.62 0.02 4.72 0.7 0.56 0.52 0.04 17.98 0 1.37 0.99 0.28 19.53 0.22 0.01 38.53 9.66 0.08 0.73 43.32 2.28 0.09 0.75 1.55 2.63 9.08 0.05 1.19 0.02 4.91 0.46 0.54 0.56 0.03 18.23 0 1.38 0.97 0.31 18.77 0.22 0 41.26 8.95 0.08 0.76 40.02 2.38 0.09 0.6 1.81 2.75 7.8 0.06 1.13 0.03 5.16 0.5 0.6 0.65 0.03 19.37 0 1.38 1.09 0.3 19.16 0.22 0 47.94 9.15 0.08 0.52 37.4 2.87 0.11 0.67 1.95 2.77 7.16 0.09 1.05 0.03 5.32 0.25 0.58 0.73 0.03 19.69 0 1.33 1 0.3 19.02 0.14 0.0.1 49.01 9.01 0.08 0.11 32.72 2.87 0.07 0.5 1.91 2.56 5.43 0.09 0.79 0.03 5.11 0.27 0.58 0.73 0.02 19.68 0 1.34 1 0.28 18.68 0.2 0.01 51.37 9.07 0.08 0 33.28 3.07 0.06 0.5 1.74 2.43 4.66 0.06 0.73 0.04 4.87 0.62 0.54 0.52 0.02 19.49 0 1.31 0.96 0.27 18.63 0.19 0.02 54.87 8.75 0.08 0 28.66 3.12 0.07 0.45 1.53 2.38 3.89 0.05 0.75 0.04 4.54 0.64 0.55 0.39 0.02 19.48 0 1.26 0.92 0.28 18.47 0.2 0.02 56.24 8.17 0.08 0 30.32 3.3 0.09 0.41 1.44 2.41 2.89 0.02 0.91 0.05 3.78 0.7 0.48 0.49 0.02 20.14 0 1.31 1.01 0.28 17.9 0.22 0.05 56.2 7.95 0.08 0 34.5 3.65 0.11 0.38 1.04 2.29 3.55 0.02 0.66 0.04 3.36 0.48 0.41 0.41 0.02 20.86 0 1.37 0.88 0.29 16.89 0.24 0.02 55.7 7.45 0.07 0 32.25 3.31 0.11 0.33 1.22 2.05 3.35 0.02 165.9 167.4 163.0 158.6 157.3 154.2 160.3 153.8 155.0 152.1 152.9 157.1 151.8 Total emissions (ktC) Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page 39 Overall effect of the revised CEFs 6 = Table 6.3: Percentage change in carbon emissions, according to fuel, after introducing the revised CEFs into the 2002 GHG inventory IPCC Fuel Anthracite Aviation Gasoline Blast Furnace Gas Coke Oven Coke Coke Oven Gas Coking Coal Colliery Methane Gas/Diesel Oil Gas Works Gas Jet Gasoline Liquefied Petroleum Gas Lubricants Motor Gasoline Municipal Solid Waste Naphtha Natural Gas Non-Fuel Combustion Non IPCC Orimulsion Other Bituminous Coal Other Kerosene Other Oil Patent Fuel Petroleum Coke Refinery Gas Residual Fuel Oil Scrap Tyres Overall % change 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 0.00 -1.38 18.90 -36.09 -24.18 63.22 0.00 1.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -9.14 -3.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.25 1.044 2.00 - 0.00 -1.38 18.90 -42.51 -24.20 68.63 0.00 1.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -9.14 -3.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.25 1.044 2.11 - -0.29 -1.38 18.90 -38.47 -24.19 84.31 0.00 1.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -9.14 -2.76 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.70 1.044 1.76 - -0.29 -1.38 18.90 -44.53 -24.14 78.27 0.00 1.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -9.14 -2.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.23 1.044 1.76 - 0.00 -1.38 18.90 -51.70 -24.17 75.87 0.00 4.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -9.14 -2.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.27 1.044 1.76 0.00 1.19 -1.38 18.90 -62.81 -24.03 59.96 0.00 1.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -2.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.69 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.41 1.044 1.76 0.00 0.89 -1.38 18.90 -62.17 -23.12 104.92 0.00 1.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.98 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.64 1.044 1.76 0.00 0.89 -1.38 18.90 -77.11 -23.77 84.47 0.00 1.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -9.14 -1.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.34 1.044 2.11 0.00 0.76% Review of Carbon Emission Factors 1.06% 0.86% 0.74% 0.67% 0.22% AEA Energy & Environment 0.60% 0.78% 1998 1.49 -1.39 18.91 -74.72 -24.12 85.50 0.00 1.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -9.15 -1.57 0.00 0.00 5.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.05 1.04 2.47 0.00 1.02% 1999 -0.30 -1.39 18.91 -55.60 -24.33 6.59 0.00 0.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -9.15 -1.19 0.00 0.00 4.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 13.44 1.04 2.82 0.00 0.62% 2000 0.00 -1.39 18.91 -53.04 -24.62 4.45 0.00 0.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -9.15 -1.54 0.00 0.00 4.68 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.78 1.04 2.94 0.00 0.50% Page 2001 0.89 -1.39 18.91 -46.24 -24.28 6.03 0.00 0.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -9.15 -1.45 0.00 0.00 5.73 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.38 1.04 2.94 0.00 0.86% 40 2002 0.89 -1.39 18.91 -52.72 -24.24 6.31 0.00 0.92 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -9.15 -1.35 0.00 0.00 6.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.18 1.04 3.18 0.00 1.02% References 7 = 7 References Baggott, S. L., Brown, L., Milne, R., Murrells, T.P., Passant, N. and Watterson, J.D. (2004). UK Greenhouse Gas Inventory, 1990 to 2002. Annual Report for submission under Framework Convention on Climate Change. National Environmental Technology Centre, AEA Technology Centre, AEAT/ENV/R/1702. British Gas (1992) Personal communication with Geoff Salway. British Coal (1989) Personal communication with Simon Eggleston. British Coal Research, Bretby, Derbyshire, UK. Corus (2004) Personal communication. Peter Quinn. DTI DUKES (2004), Digest of United Kingdom Energy Statistics 2004, TSO, London 123 Kingsway London, WC2B 6PQ, UK. IPCC, (1997a), IPCC Revised 1996 Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Volume 1, Greenhouse Gas Inventory Reporting Instructions, IPCC WGI Technical Support Unit, Hadley Centre, Meteorological Office, Bracknell, UK. IPCC, (1997b), IPCC Revised 1996 Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Volume 2, Greenhouse Gas Inventory Workbook, IPCC WGI Technical Support Unit, Hadley Centre, Meteorological Office, Bracknell, UK. IPCC, (1997c), IPCC Revised 1996 Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Volume 3, Greenhouse Gas Inventory Reference Manual, IPCC WGI Technical Support Unit, Hadley Centre, Meteorological Office, Bracknell, UK. IPCC, (2000), Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, ed. Penman, J, Kruger, D, Galbally, I, et al, IPCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme, Technical Support Programme Technical Support Unit, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Hayama, Kanagawa, Japan. Joslin, A., Rodgers, I., Salway, G. and Tabberer, R. (2004) Relating fuel consumption to CO2 emissions. Review and recommendations for power station fuel and plant parameters for use in the DTI power station model. AEP Report EncC 159/04. Transco (2004a) Measurement and Process Report: MPR046. Estimation of Carbon Dioxide Emission Factors for UK Natural Gas 1990-2003. Safety & Engineering report. Dave Lander, Standards Manager (Gas Quality), UK Distribution, National Grid (formerly Transco), National Grid House, Warwickshire, CV34 6DA, UK. Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page 41 References 7 = Transco (2004b) Measurement and Process Report: MPR039. Estimation of Carbon Dioxide Emission Factors for UK Natural Gas 2002 and 2003. Safety & Engineering report. Dave Lander, Standards Manager (Gas Quality), UK Distribution, National Grid (formerly Transco), National Grid House, Warwickshire, CV34 6DA, UK. Quick (2004). Personal communication. Will Quick, Joint Environmental Programme (JEP), funded by the Association of Electricity Producers (AEP). Power Technology, Ratcliffe on Soar, Nottingham, NG11 0EE, UK. Rushworth (2004) Personal communication. Jim Rushworth, National Energy Manager, Lafarge Cement UK, East Aberthaw, Barry, Vale of Glamorgan, Wales, UK. Simmons (2002) Review of the UK Greenhouse Gas Inventory CO2 from Fuel Combustion 1990-1999. Avonlog Ltd. UKPIA (2004) Carbon Content Of Fuels Used In The UK. Ian McPherson, Assistant Director, UK Petroleum Industry Association, 9 Kingsway, London, WC2B 6XF, UK. UKPIA (1989) Personal communication with Simon Eggleston. UK Petroleum Industry Association, 9 Kingsway, London, WC2B 6XF, UK. Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page 42 Acknowledgements 8 = 8 Acknowledgements We are grateful for the help of the following people during the course of this work programme; apologies for any omissions. • Achur, James (UK DTI) • Allen, Chris (TRANSCO - now National Grid UK) • Austwick, Caroline (Defra) • Boyle, Stephen (SEPA) • Cunningham, Mike (SEPA) • Dodwell, Chris (UK Defra) • Donaldson, Susan (UK Defra, Climate, Energy, Science and Analysis) • Gemill, Rob (EA) • Hitchin, Roger (Buildings Research Establishment, BRE) • JEP programme members • Jones, Haydn (Netcen, EA) • Lampert, Roger (DTI) • Lander, Dave (TRANSCO - now National Grid UK) • Maier, Margaret (DTI) • McGlen, Chris (UK Coal) • McPherson, Ian (UKPIA) • Penman, Jim (UK Defra, Climate, Energy, Science and Analysis) • Prior, Phil (Defra) • Pryor, Phil (TRANSCO - now National Grid UK) • Quick, Will (Joint Environmental Programme, E.ON Group) • Rushworth, Jim (Lafarge Cement) • Salway, Geoff (RWE Innogy plc) • Tauhid, Sayeeda (UK Defra) • Watson, Malcolm (UKPIA) • Wilson, Dave (DTI) • Wilson, Dave (UK DTI) • Young, Martin (UK DTI) Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page 43 Appendix 1 = Appendix 1 A1.1 BUNKER EMISSIONS International shipping and aviation emissions are not included in national total emissions, but are submitted to the IPCC annually. Modifications to the CEFs will affect the emissions from fuels consumed by international shipping and aviation, and for completeness, the revised bunker emissions are presented in this Appendix. Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page 44 Appendix 1 = Table A1.1.1: IPCC International bunker emissions (MtC) IPCC Fuel International Gas/Diesel Oil Marine International Residual Fuel Oil Marine Aviation Jet Gasoline Bunkers 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Emissions in 2002 Greenhouse Gas Inventory 0.59 0.63 0.70 0.66 0.75 0.64 0.72 0.66 0.96 0.73 0.72 1.18 1.09 1.11 1.12 0.94 1.15 1.24 1.53 1.43 1.00 0.79 4.03 3.97 4.39 4.70 4.88 5.20 5.53 5.89 6.59 7.22 8.02 0.74 0.74 1.03 0.82 7.22 8.02 Emissions in Carbon Emissions Factor modified Greenhouse Gas Inventory International Gas/Diesel Oil 0.60 0.64 0.70 0.67 0.73 0.65 0.73 0.67 0.97 Marine International Residual Fuel Oil 1.21 1.12 1.13 1.14 0.96 1.17 1.26 1.56 1.46 Marine Aviation Jet Gasoline 4.03 3.97 4.39 4.70 4.88 5.20 5.53 5.89 6.59 Bunkers Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page 45 Appendix 1 = Table A1.2.2: Coal GCV for the cement industry (GJ per tonne) SOURCE Cement (combustion) • • • 1990 28.2 1991 28.2 1992 28.2 1993 29.5 1994 28.3 1995 27.1 1996 27.4 1997 27 1998 26.6 1999 26.7 2000 27 2001 27 2002 27 2003 27.9 2004 27.7 1990-93 and 1994-99 - DUKES GCV - Mineral products 1994 - average of 93 and 95 DUKES data 2000-2004 - Data supplied by Cement industry Table A1.2.3: 1990 29.8 Coke GCV (GJ per tonne) 1991 29.8 Table A1.2.4: 1990 39.5 Fuel Gas oil Fuel oil Petrol DERV Aviation Spirit Aviation Turbine fuel 1993 29.8 1994 29.8 1995 29.8 1996 29.8 1997 29.8 1998 29.8 1999 29.8 2000 29.8 2001 29.8 2002 29.8 1996 39.5 1997 39.5 1998 39.5 1999 39.5 2000 39.5 2001 39.5 2002 39.5 Petroleum Coke GCV (GJ per tonne) 1991 39.5 Table A1.2.5: 1992 29.8 1992 39.5 1993 39.5 1994 39.5 1995 39.5 Liquid fuel GCVs (GJ per tonne) Dukes class Gas/Diesel Oil (incl DERV) Fuel Oil Motor Spirit Gas/Diesel Oil (incl DERV) Aviation Spirit & Wide Cut Gasoline Aviation Turbine Fuel Review of Carbon Emission Factors 1990 45.4 1991 45.4 1992 45.4 1993 45.4 1994 45.4 1995 45.4 1996 45.4 1997 45.4 1998 45.5 1999 45.6 2000 45.6 2001 45.6 2002 45.6 43.2 47 45.4 43.2 47 45.4 43.2 47 45.4 43.2 47 45.4 43.2 47 45.4 43.2 47 45.4 43.2 47 45.4 43.3 47 45.4 43.2 47 45.5 43.2 47.1 45.6 43.1 47 45.6 43.5 47.1 45.6 43.4 47.1 45.6 47.3 47.3 47.3 47.3 47.3 47.3 47.3 47.3 47.3 47.3 47.3 47.3 47.3 46.2 46.2 46.2 46.2 46.2 46.2 46.2 46.2 46.2 46.2 46.2 46.2 46.2 Page 47 AEA Energy & Environment Appendix 1 = Table A1.2.6: Year DUKES Transco Natural Gas GCVs from DUKES and TRANSCO (2004) (MJ/m3) 1990 37.97 38.61 1991 37.80 - Review of Carbon Emission Factors 1992 38.52 - 1993 38.80 - 1994 39.09 38.89 AEA Energy & Environment 1995 39.6 - 1996 39.1 39.27 1997 39.1 - Page 48 1998 39.1 39.52 1999 39.5 39.76 2000 39.4 39.41 2001 39.8 - 2002 39.8 39.51 2003 39.6 39.5 Appendix 1 = A1.3 CONVERSION FACTORS FOR GROSS TO NET ENERGY CONSUMPTION Table A1.3.1 displays the conversion factors used for Gross to Net Energy consumption as listed in the UK Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-2002, (Baggott et al, 2004). Table A1.3.1: Conversion factors for Gross to Net energy consumption Fuel Other Gaseous Fuels Solid and Liquid Fuels LPG and OPG Blast Furnace Gas Review of Carbon Emission Factors Conversion factor 0.9 0.95 0.92 1.0 AEA Energy & Environment Page 49 Appendix 2 = Appendix 2 A2.1 REVIEW OF FRACTIONS OF CARBON LEFT UNOXIDISED AFTER COMBUSTION IN LIQUID FUELS Background Emissions of carbon can be estimated from the quantities of fuel burnt, their carbon contents, and the fraction of carbon that is not oxidised during the combustion. The current assumption in the UK Greenhouse Gas inventory is that 100% of the liquid fuels and gaseous fuels are oxidised. The EU ETS default is 99.5%. Review To review the assumptions currently used, we have contacted the UK Petroleum Industries Association (UKPIA) to seek their view on the appropriate oxidation factors considered the views of experts involved in the mobile combustion chapter of the 2006 IPPC guidelines consulted with our transport sector, Tim Murrells, for his views on the mobile combustion Response from UKPIA From an analysis of data provided by Ian McPherson of UKPIA, Malcolm Watson, UKPIA, has suggested that for large combustion plant in refineries the carbon oxidation is 99.9%. This analysis ignores any soot deposited in and around the combustion chamber (JW - but this is likely to negligible). Views of authors involved in the 2006 IPCC GLs A table of oxidation factors were produced for the IPCC 2006 GLs by Kainou Kazanuri from a range of sources, including the IPCC EF database, and data from the IEA. This covered all the IPCC fuels. Jos Olivier (RIVM, Netherlands) makes the point that in general the non-oxidised fraction (i.e. that remains as particles following combustion) is very small, and is much smaller than the uncertainty in the emission factors and certainly much smaller than the accuracy of the activity data. He considers this correction term more of an 'academic' character (i.e. in principle OK), than of an topic of any significance for accurately estimating CO2 emissions. Jos recommended to apply values other than 1 in cases where there is a significant fraction carbon non-oxidised. Greg Marland (Oak Ridge National Laboratory) notes that there is an analysis within the US EPA that suggests 100% oxidation of fuel for modern automobiles. Greg notes that he does not know if this assumption can be extended to the full mobile sector. View of Tim Murrells (NAEI transport sector expert) This is an issue we regularly have to consider when calculating fuel consumption and CO2 factors for road transport by specific vehicle types. When data sources provide fuel consumption factors in g fuel/km for different fuels and types of vehicles, they actually derive these from measurements of CO2 tailpipe emissions and work back to calculate fuel consumption from measured tailpipe CO2 emissions and the measured tailpipe emissions of other carbon containing species CO, hydrocarbons and PM. There are text-book equations to do this using the carbon contents of these other species. These are Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page 50 Appendix 2 = based on the assumption that all PM emitted from vehicle exhausts is in the form of elemental carbon and they assume an average carbon content of the emitted hydrocarbons. The terminology that is used is 'tailpipe CO2' (the amount of CO2 actually emitted) and 'ultimate CO2', (the amount that has the potential of forming CO2 based on the total amount of carbon emitted). It is ultimate CO2 that is related to fuel consumption rates. The actual amount of carbon emitted in forms other than CO2 is time-variable, depending on the make-up of the fleet. Old petrol cars without three-way catalysts emitted a significant amount of carbon as CO and hydrocarbons. But with improvements in engines and abatement technology, this has reduced significantly. Recent test data we have just been analysing for DfT shows that for modern cars, about 99.4 - 99.7% of carbon is emitted as CO2 from the tailpipe of petrol cars and 99.6 - 99.9% of carbon is emitted as CO2 from diesel cars. This doesn't make any difference to us if it is assumed (as we do) that regardless of what the carbon is emitted as it has the potential (and will) form CO2 in the atmosphere. For CO and hydrocarbons that is a fair assumption, but I have never been comfortable with the idea that emitted PM can potentially form CO2 and to this end I think we ought to subtract the amount of exhaust PM emitted as carbon (from our calculation of PM emissions) from DUKES fuel consumption stats. The 0.3-0.6% of carbon that is not emitted as CO2 from petrol vehicles is virtually all emitted as CO and HC, so there are no worries here in using the DUKES figures and carbon content factors as this means all the carbon in the fuel is emitted in a form that will go on to form CO2. For diesel vehicles, though, a significant amount of the 0.1-0.4% of carbon that is not emitted as CO2 is emitted as PM, so that ought to be taken into account in the calculations from DUKES figures on diesel consumption. Some calculations I've done show that for modern vehicles, <0.01% of carbon in petrol is emitted as PM and 0.05-0.1% of carbon in diesel is emitted as PM. I should stress though the figures for diesel are time-varying, as cleaner engines and technologies penetrate the fleet, the amount of PM emitted is decreasing. In 1990, the allowance for diesel emitted PM in the carbon calculations will be higher. Also, don't take this figure for diesel as generic - for gas-oil consumption in diesel trains, machinery, shipping etc, these are less well-designed engines with no PM abatement, and a more significant fraction of carbon in the diesel consumed by these engines will be emitted as PM, so a bigger correction in the DUKES figures ought in theory to be made. I could develop a "fleet-weighted" correction factor based on diesel PM emissions that can be applied to the road transport CO2 calculations from DUKES diesel consumption, but it depends what you intend to do with the information. There could be a tricky issue in that the PM emissions for road transport are calculated from traffic data and the carbon emissions being calculated from DUKES figures exclude the contribution of 'fuel tourism' vehicles that contribute to the UK traffic and therefore contribute to our PM inventory, but not our carbon inventory. Recommendation Our view is that the fraction oxidised for liquid fuels should remain at 100% across the time series, primarily because of the uncertainty in the estimates of the fractions of fuels unoxidised and the difficulties of generating an accurate and defensible time series of unoxidised fractions for each fuel used in the GHG inventory from 1990 to 2004. Adopting this approach will mean that the base year emissions will be unaffected. This will result in a slightly conservative estimate of carbon emissions – possibly more so in 1990 where combustion technology was not so advanced and the fraction of carbon unoxidised would have been slightly greater. Review of Carbon Emission Factors AEA Energy & Environment Page 51 Appendix 3 = Appendix 3 A3.1 PROJECT MEETINGS Date Meeting Attendees 01.07.2004 Gas emission factors and calorific values for use in ETS and NAEI Jim Penman Defra Sayeeda Tauhid Defra Caroline Doble Defra Sarah Baggott Defra/AEAT-netcen John Watterson AEAT-netcen Howard Rudd AEAT-FES David Wilson DTI Rob Gemmill EA Dave Lander Transco Chris Allen Transco Phil Pryor NG Transco Mike Cunningham SEPA Defra, Ashdown House, London 10.08.2004 Natural Gas Calorific Values and Emission Factors for Use in the NAEI and the EU ETS Defra, Ashdown House, London Review of Carbon Emission Factors DEFRA – Chris Dodwell, Caroline Austwick, Sayeeda Tauhid NETCEN – John Watterson, Sarah Baggott FES – Philip Wright Transco – Dave Lander, Phil Prior DTI – Margaret Maier, Roger Lampert EA – Haydn Jones SEPA – Mike Cunningham, Stephen Boyle AEA Energy & Environment Page 52
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