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Theories of Psychology:
Evolving Towards Greater Effectiveness or
Wandering, Lost in the Jungle,
Without a Guide?
Generally, we believe that we are advancing the field because our research and
practice is “adding to the storehouse of knowledge.” However, from the
perspective of evolutionary theory, such an increase is merely “additive” and does
not represent a true evolutionary advance. This raises important questions: Are we
truly advancing as a science? Are we more able to serve humanity?
Steven E. Wallis, Ph.D.
Director, Foundation for the Advancement of Social Theory
Fellow, Institute for Social Innovation, Fielding Graduate University
Adjunct Faculty, Capella University
International Congress of Psychology 2012
July 22-27 – Cape Town, South Africa
[email protected]
1
Overview
 Dubin, Stinchcombe, Kaplan, etc.: agree theories are more
effective when they are more highly structured.
 Structure includes: Complexity (number of concepts), and
Robustness (interrelatedness between concepts).
 Faust & Meehl: suggest “cliometric metatheory” to link the
structure of theory with the success of those theories.
 Wallis pioneered “Propositional Analysis.”
 To quantify structure
 Found relationship between structure and effectiveness of theory.
 Confirmed untested assumptions of previous scholars.
 This study is the first to use Propositional Analysis in a
cliometric metatheoretical study in psychology.
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2
Previous Study Shows The Evolution Of
Theory in two Measures of Structure
More effective theories have
concepts that are more co-causally
interrelated / connected
Change in Complexity Over Time
No. of Concepts
Robustness
Change in Robustness (interrelatedness)
During the Scientific
Revolution, theories become
more complex
1
0.75
0.5
0.25
0
0
500
1000
Year
1500
2000
15
10
5
0
0
500
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1000
1500
2000
Year
3
Sample: Nine Highly Cited Theories of
Motivation from Psychological Review
Complexity declining – not
peaking: No revolutionary
change is indicated
14
12
10
8
2
Concepts in
each theory
Robustness
Relatedness on
Scale of Zero to
One
6
4
Complexity
Robustness remains low:
Theory not very useful in
practical application
Trend
Line for
Linear
Complexity
(Complexity)
0
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
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2020
4
Insights & Conclusions
 Complexity of theories of motivation appear to be declining.

Inappropriate bias towards parsimony?
 Robustness is not improving.

No apparent evolution or revolution.
 Generalizing, it seems that the science of psychology is “lost in the
jungle” following the wrong guide.

Many arguments against parsimony (notably Meehl).

Empirical study (see above) confirms need for theories of greater
complexity.
 Future studies: Larger sample size; Include more sub-fields; Include
more journals as sources.
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5
To Help Psychology Serve Humanity
We Must Directly Address Theory
FIRST - make theories that are more complex.
 More
collaboration between scholars.
 Greater collaboration between disciplines.
 More scholar-practitioner collaboration.
 Journals should encourage more complex theories.
THEN - create theories that are more Robust
and so are more effective.
I look forward to collaborating with YOU!
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