THE EFFECTS OF DIESELIZATION OF THE EUROPEAN PASSENGER
CAR FLEET ON ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND CO2 EMISSIONS
Amela Ajanovic, Energy Economics Group, Vienna University of Technology, Phone +43 1 58801 37364,
E-mail: [email protected]
Keywords: dieselization, efficiency improvement, rebound effect, energy conservation
Overview
One of the most remarkable developments in passenger car transport in recent years was the rapid gain of market
shares of diesel vehicles – especially in some European countries like France, Austria, Italy, Sweden and
Denmark, see Figure 1. As shown in Figure 2, diesel cars increased their market share continuously. The share of
diesel cars in the total vehicle stock in EU-15 increased from 3.3% in 1980 to 32% in 2007. In some EU
countries (e.g. Austria, Belgien, France) diesel consumption in passenger car transport is higher than gasoline
consumption. In 2009, 48.5% of vehicles sold in EU-15 are diesel. In Belgien and France that figure is even
significantly higher – about 75% (ACEA, 2010; Schipper, 2011).
0.7
200
180
Stock of cars (Mil.)
Share of diesel
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1970
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1975
SE
1980
1985
DK
1990
IT
1995
FR
2000
DE
2005
2010
1980
1985
AT
Gasoline
Figure 1. Increase in the share of diesel in the
countries investigated
1990
Diesel
1995
2000
2005
Alternative powertrain cars
Figure 2. Development of car stock in passenger
transport in EU-15, 1980 – 2007
(Source: Ajanovic ed., 2009)
Ratio of service price Psg/Psd (EUR/100 km)
The major reasons for this development were a better fuel economy – about 20% to 30% compared to gasoline –
and lower fuel price (to some extent due to considerable tax benefits) which led to lower service prices per
vehicle km driven of about 30% for diesel cars comparing to gasoline cars, see Figure 3. Along with better fuel
efficiency, the other well-known characteristics of diesel cars are reliability and durability.
5
4
3
2
1
0
1970
1975
1980
SE
1985
DK
1990
IT
FR
1995
2000
DE
2005
2010
AT
Figure 3. Development of the ratio of service prices gasoline / service price diesel in the countries investigated
Methods
The crucial question from energy policy makers point-of-view and the core objective of this paper is: Did this
switch to diesel also lead to effective energy savings on the aggregate level?
To answer this question we analyse the development of service demand (vehicle km driven) and of energy
consumption in passenger car transport in the most interesting countries – FR, AT, IT, SE, DE, DK, PT, UK,
NL, ES –over the time period 1980-2007 by means of an econometric analysis. This gives finally price
elasticities of service demand and based on a formal framework following the major literature (e.g. Greene,
1997) we can derive the rebound effect of the switch to diesel.
Results and conclusions
In Figure 4 a comparison of energy savings due to over-all energy efficiency improvements of passenger cars
and the effect of the lower fuel intensity of diesel is provided. It can clearly be seen that the effect of diesel is
small compared to the general saving effect.
So summing up better fuel intensities due to dieselisation did not lead to a remarkable energy conservation
effect. The major saving effect was clearly due the general technical efficiency improvements of passenger cars.
100
Change in energy (PJ)
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
-100
-200
-300
-400
-500
dE(FI)
dE(ΔFI)
-600
Figure 4. Comparison of energy savings due to over-all energy efficiency improvements of passenger cars
and the effect of the lower fuel intensity of diesel.
In this paper we have analysed, how the switch to diesel cars with presumed considerably lower fuel intensity in
European countries has influenced over-all energy consumption in road passenger car transport.
The major conclusion is sobering: The largest part of savings over time was brought about by over-all efficiency
improvements for both gasoline and diesel cars. Due to better efficiency of cars in general between 1980 and
2007 about 9% of energy was saved of which about an eighth – 1 % – was saved due to the switch to diesel.
Given this very moderate result we can conclude that the fuel tax incentives provided of about 30% to 50 %
lower taxes for diesel than for gasoline were not at all justified. Moreover, this analysis did not yet takes into
account the increase in energy consumption due to the price effect for cheaper diesel. Considering this additional
aspect is left for analysis in a further paper.
References
Ajanovic A. ed, 2009: ALTER-MOTIVE: Country review report, Energy Economy Group, Vienna 2009
Ajanovic A., Haas R.:“On extracting the impact of consumer behaviour and the rebound effect in passenger car
transport in selected EU countries “, 8th BIEE Academic Conference, Oxford, 22- 23rd September 2010
ACEA, 2010: www.acea.be
Schipper L., Hedges E., 2011. The Impact of New Passenger Vehicle Changes and the Shift to Diesel in Europe:
Lessons for the Future?. Energy Policy (forthcoming)
Greene, D. L., 1997. Theory and empirical estimates of the Rebound Effect for the U.S. transportation sector.
ORNL.