Westgold Resources Limited Precious Metals - Producer Tim McCormack | Analyst | Canaccord Genuity (Australia) Ltd. | [email protected] | +61.8.6216.2088 Reg Spencer | Analyst | Canaccord Genuity (Australia) Ltd. | [email protected] | +61.2.9263.2701 Australian Equity Research 6 February 2017 Initiation of Coverage BUY PRICE TARGET Price (4-Feb) Ticker A$3.05 A$2.00 WGX-ASX 52-Week Range (A$): Market Cap (A$M): Shares Out. (M) : Enterprise Value (A$M): NAV /Shr (5%) (A$): Net Cash (A$M): P/NAV (x) : Major Shareholders: FYE Jun Gold Production (000oz) All in Sustaining Cost (Gold) (US $ /oz) EBITDA (A$M) EV/EBITDA (x) Net Income (A$M) P/E (x) A new pure-play gold exposure 1.40 - 2.06 608 304.7 509 3.07 99.1 0.65 BlackRock 13% APAC 12.9% 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E 174 278 375 407 1,106 935 890 902 36.7 14.3 104.8 4.8 189.8 2.3 218.6 1.6 (23.6) 35.5 84.5 101.4 (23.6) 17.1 7.2 6.0 2.1 2 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 Feb-17 Jan-17 1.3 WGX Source:�FactSet Westgold Resources Ltd (WGX:ASX) is a gold producer from its Western Australian gold operations (Higginsville, South Kal, CMGP and Fortnum). The company was formed as a result of the successful de-merger of the gold assets from Metals X Limited (MLX.ASX). WGX successfully listed on the ASX on 6 December 2016, after shareholders approved the de-merger of the gold assets from Metals X Limited (MLX-ASX | Buy | Tim McCormack). The company is currently producing at a run rate of ~300kozpa from its Western Australian-based operations, and with aggressive growth initiatives well advanced, we expect production to increase beyond 400kozpa in the medium term. We initiate coverage with a BUY recommendation, highlighting the company's strong organic growth pipeline, well reputed management team and compelling valuation metrics (P/ NAV 0.65x, FY18 EV/EBITDA 2.3x, FY18 EV/FCF of 7.5x) as key factors underpinning our investment thesis. Our price target for WGX is A$3.05/sh. Highlights Production profile increasing to +400koz. WGX's asset suite comprises four processing facilities and a considerable resource (15.4Moz) and reserve (2.9Moz) base. Gold production has demonstrated consistent increases over the past 12 months, and we expect WGX to produce ~278koz (60% YoY increase) in FY17, increasing to +400kozpa by FY19. Our group production forecasts demonstrate a strong organic growth pipeline, underpinned by the ramp up of the Central Murchison Gold Project (CMGP) and restart of the Fortnum Project (assumed to come on line in 2017, ramping up to ~70kozpa). We expect group production to peak at ~440koz in FY20, before tapering off based on assumed reserve depletion at Higginsville, South Kalgoorlie and Fortnum. We forecast group AISCs to average A$1,200-1,250/oz LOM, offering margins of ~A$450-600/oz against our forward curve-based price deck (LT gold price A$1,845/oz). Exploration to drive production rates in the medium term. WGX’s current operating strategy is to increase production to +400kozpa over the next couple of years, which in our view is achievable based on current resource and reserves. While the forecast production profile looks robust for the next 5 years, production drops away beyond 2021 to ~200kozpa (CMGP only), highlighting the leverage WGX has to exploration success across its asset suite. As cash flow is freed up from FY18, we expect WGX to increase its exploration budget to try and back-fill the medium- and long-term production profile. We see good potential for success on this front, particularly at the large-scale underground mines, where very little modern day exploration has been completed. Success here represents significant potential upside to our current valuation. Well capitalised with ~A$100m in cash and no debt. WGX reported a cash balance of A$99.1m at the end of the DecQ'16, and in our view, the company remains well funded to achieve its production growth initiatives. FY17 represents a heavy capital spending phase, with the CMGP ramping up and the Fortnum project coming on line, but as a result we expect to see strong FCF generation from FY18 of A$65m, increasing to +A $100m from FY19. Majority of the capital deployment will be spent developing a number of large underground mines at the CMGP, most notably the Big Bell underground mine which will underpin +8 years of ~100kozpa production for the operation from late FY18. Valuation. The assets underpinning our A$3.05/sh NAV comprise Higginsville, South Kalgoorlie, CMGP and Fortnum (NPV5%), net of corporate, balance sheet adjustments and nominal exploration value. This has WGX trading on a P/NAV of ~0.65x, well below the market cap-weighted average of our gold producer coverage of ~0.95x. Canaccord Genuity is the global capital markets group of Canaccord Genuity Group Inc. (CF : TSX) The recommendations and opinions expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analyst's personal, independent and objective views about any and all the companies and securities that are the subject of this report discussed herein. For important information, please see the Important Disclosures beginning on page 21 of this document. Westgold Resources Limited Initiation of Coverage FINANCIAL SUMMARY Westgold Resources Limited ASX:WGX Analyst : Tim McCormack Rating: 6/02/2017 Target Price: Date: Year End: BUY $3.05 June Market Information Share Price Market Capitalisation 12 Month Hi-Lo Issued Capital Options Fully Diluted A$ A$m A$ m m m Company Description Westgold Resources Ltd (WGX:ASX) is a gold producer from its Western Australian gold operations (Higginsville, South Kal, CMGP and Fortnum). The company was formed as a result of the successful de-merger of the gold assets from Metals X Limited (MLX.ASX). 2.00 609.4 1.72-1.62 304.70 11.20 315.90 Valuation Central Murchison Gold NPV @ 5% South Kal NPV @ 5% Higginsville NPV @ 5% Fortnum NPV @ 5% Exploration & Development assets Hedging Cash and bullion Debt Investments Less: Gold prepayment O/S Less: Corporate & O'heads TOTAL NAV Price:NAV NAV at Spot US$1,224/oz, AUDUSD $0.77 Target Price (rounded) A$m 450.1 79.8 139.0 117.9 90.0 (0.1) 99.1 (17.1) (21.7) 936.9 Risk Adj. Assumptions Gold Price (US$/oz) AUD:USD 2017e 1,227 0.74 2018e 1,195 0.73 2016a** 1,197 0.73 A$/share 1.48 0.26 0.46 0.39 0.30 (0.00) 0.33 (0.06) (0.07) 3.07 0.65 2.39 3.05 2019e 1,219 0.72 Valuation Sensitivity CHange in Target Price $8.00 $6.00 $4.00 $2.00 $0.00 -30% -20% -10% Gold Price Production Metrics Gold Assets CMGP (koz) South Kal (koz) ex. Cannon prod Higginsville prod'n (koz) Fortnum prod'n (koz) Gold Production (ozs) Group AISC (A$/oz) Reserves & Resources Gold Resources Reserves 0% 10% 20% US$ Exchange Rate 30% 2016a** 2017e 2018e 2019e 37 1,796 45 1,619 91 1,334 0 0 174 1,507 115 1,256 52 1,337 99 1,197 12 1,591 278 1,264 159 1,182 64 1,153 93 1,261 60 1,286 375 1,213 177 1,274 64 1,155 93 1,252 73 1,176 407 1,233 Mt g/ t Moz 223 38 2.15 2.40 15.4 2.9 Total Total Directors & Management Name Peter Newton Peter Cook Steve Norregaard Warran Hallam Fiona J. Van Maanen Position NE Chairman Managing Director Director of Operations NE Director NE Director Substantial Shareholders BlackRock APAC Resources 2018e 616.2 -406.2 -12.1 -8.1 189.8 -69.1 120.7 0.0 -36.2 84.5 0.0 84.5 2019e 693.8 -454.8 -12.3 -8.2 218.6 -73.7 144.9 0.0 -43.5 101.4 0.0 101.4 Cash Flow (A$m) 2016a** Cash Receipts 333.8 Cash paid to suppliers & employees -274.7 Tax Paid 0.0 Net Interest 1.1 Other (WC etc) 1.9 Operating Cash Flow 62.0 Exploration and Evaluation -26.4 Capex -102.2 Other 67.3 Investing Cash Flow -61.3 Debt (repayment)/ gold prepay 23.3 Share capital 0.0 Dividends -10.1 Financing Expenses -3.1 Financing Cash Flow 10.1 Opening Cash 99.2 Increase / (Decrease) in cash 10.9 FX Impact 0.0 Closing Cash 110.1 2017e 432.7 -323.8 -15.2 3.5 15.9 97.2 -16.0 -103.2 0.0 -119.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 110.1 -21.9 0.0 88.2 2018e 611.2 -418.3 -36.2 4.9 0.0 161.6 -16.0 -80.4 0.0 -96.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 104.1 65.3 0.0 169.4 2019e 686.0 -467.0 -43.5 7.7 0.0 183.3 -16.0 -61.3 0.0 -77.3 0.0 0.0 -21.0 0.0 -21.0 169.4 84.9 0.0 254.3 Balance Sheet (A$m) 2016a** Cash + S/Term Deposits 110.0 Other current assets 44.6 Current Assets 154.6 Property, Plant & Equip. 59.5 Exploration & Develop. 164.6 Other Non-current Assets 87.9 Payables 37.4 Short Term debt (inc. gold loan) 3.6 Long Term Debt (inc. gold loan) 4.3 Other Liabilities 146.0 Net Assets 275.2 Shareholders Funds 275.2 Reserves 0.0 Retained Earnings 0.0 Total Equity 275.2 2017e 104.1 67.9 172.0 54.6 172.6 135.2 43.7 25.0 0.0 155.1 310.6 275.2 0.0 35.5 310.6 2018e 169.4 94.8 264.2 53.5 180.6 180.0 61.6 0.0 0.0 242.6 374.1 275.2 0.0 98.9 374.1 2019e 254.3 111.0 365.3 54.7 188.6 220.5 69.4 0.0 0.0 314.5 445.3 275.2 0.0 170.1 445.3 Ratios & Multiples EBITDA Margin EV/EBITDA Op. Cashflow/Share 2017e 24% 4.8x $0.32 6.3x $0.12 -238% 17.2x $0.00 0% 11% 13% 0% 137.1x $1.02 2.0x 2018e 31% 2.3x $0.53 3.8x $0.28 138% 7.2x $0.07 3% 23% 31% 0% nm $1.23 1.6x 2019e 32% 1.6x $0.60 3.3x $0.33 20% 6.0x $0.10 5% 23% 29% 0% nm $1.46 1.4x EPS EPS Growth PER Dividend Per Share Dividend Yield ROE ROIC Debt/Equity Net Interest Cover Book Value/share Price/Book Value 2016a** 10% 14.2x $0.20 9.8x -$0.08 nm -23.7x $0.00 0% -9% -12% 2% -26.5x $0.91 2.2x ** Following the de-merger of the gold business, only the Balance sheet for FY16 has been provided on a pro-form basis. All P&L, cashflow, ratios and multiples are quoted unchanged on a consolidated basis from the MLX FY16 report. S ource: W G X /MLX & C anaccord G enuity estim ates Buy Target Price A$3.05 | 6 February 2017 2017e 436.6 -311.8 -12.0 -8.0 104.8 -54.5 50.3 0.4 -15.2 35.5 0.0 35.5 P/CF % 13.0% 12.9% 7.3% 6.2% Jinchuan Board and Management Profit & Loss (A$m) 2016a** Revenue 355.4 Operating Costs -275.8 Corporate & O'heads -16.0 Exploration (Expensed/Wrtien off)-26.8 EBITDA 36.7 Dep'n -65.7 EBIT -29.0 Interest expense 1.1 Tax 4.3 NPAT -23.6 Abnormals 0.0 NPAT (reported) -23.6 2 Precious Metals - Producer 2 Westgold Resources Limited Initiation of Coverage Valuation Our price target on WGX is based on a 1x forward curve NPV 5% for the operating assets, net of corporate and other adjustments. This has WGX trading on a P/NAV of ~0.65x, well below the market cap weighted average of our gold producer coverage of ~0.95x. We estimate a net asset valuation of A$937m (A$3.05/sh), which incorporates net cash of A$99.1m, hedging (neutral against our price deck), nominal exploration/ development value of A$90m, less corporate and unearned revenue by way of a gold prepayment. All earnings and cash flow forecasts are based on commodity and FX assumptions outlined in Figure 2. Figure 1: Sum-of-parts valuation for WGX Valuation Central Murchison Gold NPV @ 5% South Kal NPV @ 5% Higginsville NPV @ 5% Fortnum NPV @ 5% Exploration & Development assets Hedging Cash and bullion Debt Investments Less: Gold prepayment O/S Less: Corporate & O'heads TOTAL NAV Price:NAV NAV at Spot US$1,220/oz, AUDUSD $0.77 Target Price (rounded) A$m 450.1 79.8 139.0 117.9 90.0 (0.1) 99.1 (17.1) (21.7) 936.9 Risk Adj. A$/share 1.48 0.26 0.46 0.39 0.30 (0.00) 0.33 (0.06) (0.07) 3.07 0.65 2.39 3.05 Source: Canaccord Genuity estimates Figure 2: Gold price and FX assumptions Gold (US$/oz) US/AUS Exchange Gold (A$/oz) 2016A 1197 0.73 1632 2017E 1185 0.73 1624 2018E 1205 0.72 1663 2019E 1233 0.72 1708 2020E 1256 0.72 1751 2021E 1281 0.71 1798 2022E 1307 0.71 1835 LT 1314 0.71 1835 Source: Canaccord Genuity estimates Buy Target Price A$3.05 | 6 February 2017 3 Our group production forecasts are outlined below, demonstrating a strong organic growth pipeline, underpinned by the ramp up of the CMGP and restart of the Fortnum project (assumed to come on line in 2017). Group production peaks at ~440koz in FY20 on our forecasts, then tapers off based on assumed reserve depletion at Higginsville, South Kalgoorlie and Fortnum. We forecast group AISCs to average ~A$1,200/oz offering margins of ~A$600/oz against our forward curve based price deck (LT gold price A$1,845/oz). With the production profile dropping off beyond 2021, it highlights the leverage WGX has to exploration success across its asset suite. As cash flow is freed up through FY17-18, we expect WGX to increase its exploration budget to try and back-fill the medium- and long-term production profile. Success here represents significant potential upside to our current valuation. Precious Metals - Producer 3 Westgold Resources Limited Initiation of Coverage Figure 3: CG modelled production profile for WGX Source: Company Reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates Peer comparisons In our view, WGX compares favorably across a broad range of peer comparisons. We highlight the scale of the proposed production profile, which by FY18 would position WGX as the fifth-largest gold producer in our coverage universe. Figure 4: P/NAV of the peer gold producers Figure 5: Production and AISC profile FY16-18 Source: Company Reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates Source: Company Reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates Buy Target Price A$3.05 | 6 February 2017 4 Precious Metals - Producer 4 Westgold Resources Limited Initiation of Coverage Figure 6: EV/EBITDA comparisons Figure 7: EV/FCF comparison Source: Company Reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates Source: Company Reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates Figure 8: Current Mineral Resources of peers Figure 9: Current Ore Reserves of peers Source: Company Reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates Source: Company Reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates Corporate & Finance Corporate Structure WGX has 304.6m fully paid ordinary shares on issue with 11m employee options convertible at $2.02 per share (after vesting conditions). Major shareholders include: BlackRock at 13% APAC Resources at 12.9% Jinchuan Corporation at 7.3% Board and Management 6.2% We note that APAC Resources (listed on the HK Exchange) has recently received shareholder approval (on 5 January 2017) for the sale of its stake in WGX. While no firm guidance has been given around the timing of the sale, we don’t see this as an immediate overhang to the stock, and expect any sale to be undertaken in an orderly manner as a block trade. Buy Target Price A$3.05 | 6 February 2017 5 Precious Metals - Producer 5 Westgold Resources Limited Initiation of Coverage Balance Sheet Cash equivalents reported at the end of DecQ’16 were A$99.1m. The company has no corporate debt, with a A$25m bridging loan recently satisfied as one of the conditions of the demerger from Metals X (MLX-ASX | rated BUY by Tim McCormack). Over the next 12-18 months, WGX has outlined a number of key areas that will account for majority of the capital outlay. Those outlined below are reflected in our modelling: To refurbish, expedite and to further enhance the economics of the Fortnum gold project. Including faster re-establishment of the Starlight underground mine and an expedited exploration and development drill program at the nearby Peak Hill mining centre (~A$25 million). Development of the Mt Henry gold project and any required modifications to the Higginsville plant to optimise the processing of Mt Henry ores (~$15million); As working capital for initial mine development and the establishment of steady state production at the Comet and Great Fingall underground mines within the CMGP (~A$28 million); For the rehabilitation and pre-production costs at the Big Bell underground mine at the CMGP (~A$35 million). WGX is comfortably funding expansion initiatives from cash flow and existing cash and we don’t foresee the company requiring any additional debt to achieve its growth plans. In Figure 10, we examine a scenario analysis of the company’s net cash position under various gold prices ranging from US$1,100-1,400/oz., utilizing the current spot AUD:USD exchange rate of A$0.75. Figure 10: Net cash sensitivities Net cash/market cap. (A$m) 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2016a 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e GC fwd curve US$1100/oz US$1200/oz US$1300/oz US$1400/oz Market capitalisation Source: Company Reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates Hedging Gold hedging at the end of the quarter stood at 113.6koz at an average price of A$1,643/oz, covering a flat forward delivery of 6.2koz per month from April 2017. Pre-deliveries into hedges have occurred in a strategy to maximise sales prices at all times. Buy Target Price A$3.05 | 6 February 2017 6 Precious Metals - Producer 6 Westgold Resources Limited Initiation of Coverage In addition, Westgold has 11.2koz remaining in its gold pre-pay arrangement with Citibank, which sits as un-earned income on the balance sheet and is repaid at 1.2koz per month or A$1.86m.Dividend Policy Westgold aims to establish and maintain a minimum dividend payment payout ratio of up to 30% net profit after tax. Board and Management Peter Newton – Non-Executive Chairman Mr. Newton was a stockbroker for 25 years until 1994. Since then he has been a significant participant in the Australian resource industry as an investor and a director of a number of listed companies. In past years he has been the Chairman of both Hill 50 Limited and Abelle Limited. Mr. Newton has held no other public company directorships in the past three years, other than Metals X Limited (appointed 14 December 2012). Peter Cook – Managing Director Mr Cook is a Geologist (BSc (Applied Geology)) and a Mineral Economist (MSc (Min. Econ), MAusIMM with over 30 years of experience in the fields of exploration, project, operational and corporate management of mining companies. He is a past winner of the GMJ Mining Executive of the Year in 2001 and the Asian Mining Executive of the Year in 2015, awarded at the Mines and Money Conference in Hong Kong in 2015. During the past three years he has served as a Director of the following public listed mining companies: Metals X Limited (Appointed 23 July 2004) Pantoro Limited (Appointed 31 August 2009 – Resigned 5 October 2016) Mongolian Resource Corporation Limited (Appointed June 2013) Aziana Limited (Appointed 30 May 2011 – Resigned 10 September 2015). Stig (Steve) Norregaard – Director of Operations Mr Norregaard is a Mining Engineer (B.Eng WASM) with over 25 years corporate and mine management experience in base metal and gold operations across Australia, Canada and South East Asia. Key positions previously held by Mr Norregaard include: General Manager of Macmahon Holdings Limited’s underground contracting division Managing Director of Tectonic Resources NL Chief Operating Officer of Trelawney Mining and Exploration Inc. Managing Director RED 5 Limited. Warren Hallam – Non Executive Director Mr Hallam is a Metallurgist (B. App Sci [Metallurgy]), a Mineral Economist (MSc [Min. Econ]), holds a Graduate Diploma in finance and has over 30 years of technical and commercial experience across numerous commodities and businesses within the resources industry. During the past three years he has served as a director of the following public listed mining companies: Metals X Limited (Appointed 1 March 2005); Aziana Limited (Appointed 30 May 2011 – Resigned 11 April 2014).Fiona Van Maanen – Non Executive Director Ms Van Maanen is a CPA, holds a Bachelor of Business (Accounting) degree and a Graduate Diploma in Company Secretarial Practice. Ms. Van Maanen has significant experience in accounting and financial management in the mining and resources industry. Ms Van Maanen has held no other public company directorships in the past three years. Buy Target Price A$3.05 | 6 February 2017 7 Precious Metals - Producer 7 Westgold Resources Limited Initiation of Coverage Company Overview WGX successfully listed on the ASX on 6 December 2016, after shareholders approved the demerger from MLX at an EGM held on 24 November 2016. The company currently owns three operating gold projects with a fourth (Fortnum) under refurbishment. The four processing facilities have a combined 5.5Mtpa treatment capacity. All are located in the prolific gold production belts of Western Australia. Westgold’s three operations currently in production are: Higginsville Gold Operation in the Norseman region of Western Australia South Kalgoorlie Operations in the Kalgoorlie region of Western Australia Central Murchison Gold Project in the Murchison region of Western Australia WGX also owns a significant gold-dominant, polymetallic deposit called Rover 1 in the Northern Territory. Rover 1 is at feasibility stage and has a resource of 6.8Mt at 1.73g/t gold, 2.1g/t silver, 1.2% copper, 0.14% bismuth and 0.06% cobalt. Figure 11: WGX project locations Source: Company Reports Buy Target Price A$3.05 | 6 February 2017 8 Current annualised gold production (~300kozpa) should continue to build underpinned by the CMGP ramp up and the Fortnum project coming online during 2017. WGX’s current operating strategy is to increase production towards 450kozpa over the ensuing years which in our view is achievable based on current reserves/resources. Precious Metals - Producer 8 Westgold Resources Limited Initiation of Coverage Central Murchison The CMGP is the largest of WGX’s four key gold projects with a total Mineral Resource of 7.7Moz and a Reserve of 1.92Moz. The CMGP has for the first time consolidated all the major historic gold mining centres in the Central Murchison region. These have an aggregated gold production history of approximately 10 million ounces and dominant historic production was sourced from a handful of larger underground mines, namely Big Bell, Great Fingall and Golden Crown, the Triton Mine at Reedy’s, and the Fenians Mine at Paddy’s Flat. With the exception of Big Bell and Golden Crown, none of these have been subject to modern mining and the re-invigoration of all these mines to again become long-term and sustainable gold producers is a key objective of the CMGP’s long-term strategy. The short-term objective of the CMGP is to re-establish gold production from a number of open pit sources, whilst it progressively re-establishes four key underground mines, which when operational, would become the long-term ore supply for the project. Figure 12: CMGP – key operating assumptions C entral Murchison Resource Reserve CG asssumed mine life Milling capacity Recovery CG assumed head grade Guidance CG assumed production average LOM CG assumed AISC CG project NPV 108Mt at 2.2g/t for 7.74Moz 22.8Mt at 2.6g/t for 1.93Moz 12 years 2Mtpa 90% average LOM 3.4g/t LOM, higher grade weighted to the 2H mine life Peaking at +200koz in 2020, steady state 150-200kozpa ~165kozpa A$1215/oz A$450m Source: Company Reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates Buy Target Price A$3.05 | 6 February 2017 9 Paddy’s Flat is the first of the underground mines to reach steady-state production rates and a second underground mine, Comet, began development in late 2016. Rehabilitation and dewatering of the large-scale Big Bell underground mine has been underway since mid-2016 with the decline portal now being visible. Access back into the underground for refurbishment is expected to be re-established in mid-2017. Work is also re-commencing on underground development to reestablish production from the Great Fingall and Golden Crown underground mines. Ultimately, WGX plans to have the mill supplied 100% from up to 5 underground mining hubs. As such, we have modelled open pit ore being used to maximize cash flow over the next 4 years, before the operation shifts to be 100% supplied from underground sources from 2020. The key focus for the underground mines are outlined below and we have modelled development sequencing in the following order. Paddy Flat: Historic production 1.3Moz. Current resource 7.9Mt at 3.5g/t for 890koz. CG model 4 years steady state production from late 2016 at 600ktpa. Development capital now sunk. Comet: Historic production 100koz. Current resource 1.5Mt at 4.8g/t for 225koz and Reserve of 1.5Mt at 3.43g/t for 166koz. CG model 6 years production at 300ktpa from FY18. Development capital estimated at A$15m. Big Bell: Historic production 2.6Moz. Current resource 28.7Mt at 2.7g/t for 2.6Moz. CG model 8 years production at 800ktpa from late FY18 Development capital estimated at A$25-30m spread over 2 years. Precious Metals - Producer 9 Westgold Resources Limited Initiation of Coverage Great Fingall/Crown: Historic production 1.5Moz. Current resource 3.4Mt at 6.1g/t for 660koz. CG model 6 years production at 320ktpa from FY18. Development capital estimated at A$20m. Reedys: Historic production 1Moz. Current resource 3.3Mt at 3g/t for 320koz. CG model 180ktpa 4 years at 180ktpa from FY21. Development capital estimated at A$15m. We continue to expect Big Bell to supply the backbone of ore supply in the longer term. We anticipate that to fully reinstate the mine, it will be a 2-year process, noting that dewatering has been underway for ~6 months. Current Indicated Resources at the mine are 7Mt at 4.23g/t for 953koz, which we see as having good potential to provide a long term supply of ~100kozpa, underpinning >50% of the production profile in the longer term. We have remained conservative with respect to potential for mine grades to exceed resource grades, noting that WGX will likely optimize the current resources closer to production at each asset. We see potential to sustain production closer to 200kozpa, but at this stage we are comfortable with our estimates. Figure 13: Modelled production and AISC profile for the CMGP Source: Company Reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates Buy Target Price A$3.05 | 6 February 2017 10 As mining progresses at the Paddy’s Flat underground mine, the exploration focus has been on defining the orebody in advance of development. Intersections into the Prohibition lodes continues to deliver impressive intersections, with recent resource drilling returning results including 24.2m at 3.6g/t , 21m at 4.09g/t and 8m at 6.38g/t gold. Further, drilling into the Fatt’s ore system has highlighted broad zones of mineralisation, including 34.9m at 2.3g/t and 4m at 2.8g/t. These provide significant encouragement for the future of Fatt’s as a mining area capable of sharing much of the existing mining infrastructure developed to service the parallel Vivian/Consol’s section of the Paddy’s Flat underground mine. Precious Metals - Producer 10 Westgold Resources Limited Initiation of Coverage Higginsville Higginsville is in a transitional phase, with the closure of the Trident underground mine and the commencement of open pit mining at Mount Henry now well advanced. Trident has underwritten much of the production at Higginsville since WGX acquired the asset in 2013, and while drilling suggests down plunge extensions to the Artemis and Helios lodes, overall interpretations of the resource potential at depth has been problematic due to a complicated mix of high grade intercepts and low grade results, and ultimately the decision was made to close the mine at the end of 2016. WGX was well prepared for this, and the transition to Mt Henry open pit mining has been seamless. Mining at Mt Henry (purchased from Panoramic and Matsa Resources in September 2015 for 22m MLX shares) commenced in late August 2016 and is currently being integrated into the Higginsville processing blend. The acquisition of Mt Henry has added an immediate 5 years of mine life at Higginsville, and we see significant potential to further expand the delineated resource base at Mt Henry. With the final parcels of Trident underground ore being processed this Q, we expect Mt Henry to account for the bulk of the supply going forward, supplemented by ore from small scale open pits at Lake Cowan and Fairplay. Figure 14: Key operating assumptions - Higginsville Higginsville Resource Reserve CG asssumed mine life Milling capacity Recovery CG assumed head grade Guidance CG assumed production average LOM CG assumed AISC CG project NPV 33.6Mt at 2g/t for 2.2Moz 7.6Mt at 1.8g/t for 430koz 5 years 1.3Mtpa 90% average on oxide transitional 2g/t 90-110koz once transitioned to Mt Henry ore ~94kozpa A$1235/oz A$139m Source: Company Reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates Buy Target Price A$3.05 | 6 February 2017 11 Mt Henry consists of three main deposits, namely Mt Henry, Selene and North Scotia, all of which are simple open pit mining propositions. We expect the pits to have an average strip ratio of ~4:1 with a head grade +2g/t and support a 5-year mine life, with latest metallurgical test work showing 90% recoveries in the oxide and transitional material. Initial plans are to mine the oxide and transitions zones of each ore system as a Stage 1 operation. Stage 2 of the operation will deal with primary sulphide ores in the Mt Henry and Selene iron formations. The North Scotia deposit is free milling and has no metallurgical complications. Mt Henry and Selene (iron formations) primary (fresh) ores are sulphidic, and we expect these will require finer grinding than currently used at the Higginsville plant to maintain desired gold recoveries. Previous studies envisaged a whole ore fine grinding approach. However, indications are that pre and/or post concentration followed by fine grinding may be a lower cost and more practical solution. WGX is undertaking flotation studies (flash-float) to assess the route of pre-concentration before finer grinding of a concentrate, which is expected to be less than 10% of whole ore volume. The company is also assessing post leaching gravity concentration to assess whether concentration of leach tailings followed by finer grinding may be a more effective option enabling multiple ore sources to be Precious Metals - Producer 11 Westgold Resources Limited Initiation of Coverage blended. WGX has also flagged that it may consider expanding the Higginsville process plant. At this stage, we have only modelled a 5-year mine life based on the oxide and transitional resource. We await outcomes of further metallurgical testwork before incorporating the sulphide resource in the assumed production profile, and as such include the Mt Henry sulphides in our nominal exploration and development value at A$10m. Figure 15: Modelled production and AISC profile for the Higginsville operation Source: Company Reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates Buy Target Price A$3.05 | 6 February 2017 12 Exploration and resource definition programs have continued, with the view to sourcing 100% of its feedstock from open pit operations by the end of 2017. Drilling at Mt Henry has returned a number of solid results from broad intersections including 52m at 2g/t immediately north of the Selene prospect, and high grade results at North Scotia including 5.4m at 24g/t gold. With the long-term future of the Higginsville operation secured with the transition to Mt Henry as a baseload ore supply, there is also a renewed focus on grassroots exploration in the well-endowed region. Strong anomalies have already been defined along the prospective Speedway shear system (which is the control on the Invincible deposit at the St Ives gold mining operation further north). Recent exploration drilling of the Igloo anomaly (under lake sediments on Lake Cowan) returned some exciting initial results including 13m at 5.5g/t from 24 m. In addition, the next phase of testing at Republican (2.8km anomaly peaking at 246ppb gold) and Implausible (+4km anomaly peaking 79ppb gold) is being advanced, showing the excellent potential for new discoveries under lake sediments within the Higginsville tenure. Precious Metals - Producer 12 Westgold Resources Limited Initiation of Coverage South Kalgoorlie The South Kalgoorlie operation comprises the HBJ underground mine, a number of open pits and the 1.2Mtpa Jubilee Mill. Numerous open pits and underground operations have previously been mined within the project area since the late 1980s. Since acquiring the asset in 2013, production has been modest (<45kozpa), with ore sourced primarily from existing low-grade ore stocks in combination with small-scale open pits and toll processing arrangements. Figure 16: Key operating assumptions - South Kalgoorlie South Kal Resource Reserve CG asssumed mine life Milling capacity Recovery CG assumed head grade Guidance CG assumed production average LOM CG assumed AISC CG project NPV (5%) 51Mt at 2.27g/t for 3.7Moz 2.3Mt at 2.6g/t for 192koz 3 years 1.1Mtpa (GC assume only utilised to 1Mtpa) 90% average LOM 2.5g/t (blended HBJ and open pits) Ramping up to 60-70kozpa ~64kozpa from FY18 A$1195/oz A$80m Source: Company Reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates Buy Target Price A$3.05 | 6 February 2017 13 The current production focus is completing a profit sharing agreement over the Cannon gold mine (terms explained below) whereby WGX and Southern Gold (SAUASX | Not Rated) share the surplus funds generated on a 50:50 basis. We expect to see the large stockpiles from Cannon dominate the mill feed at the Jubilee mill in the MarQ’17, to recover the final ~15koz in the mine plan. While mining at Cannon is expected to be completed this Q, we expect profit share payments to generate a further A$12m cash for WGX on the ore processed during the next 3-6 months. A key focus for WGX has been to re-instate the HBJ underground mine as the base load ore source. Initial refurbishment works including the reclamation of the old decline, its extension and the mining of remnant ore positions (with some extensions) has been completed and ore stoping commenced during 2016. The decline is now at the bottom of the old workings and ore development on the higher grade and virgin primary lodes is about to recommence meaningfully. Production from the HBJ mine is expected to be approximately 500ktpa, providing a steady and consistent base load of higher grade ore to the processing plant. In June 2016, WGX acquired the Gunga project, 30km west of the processing facility with the objective of having an addition blended feed source with HBJ when the Cannon and Georges Reward mines are depleted. Gunga has a modest Mineral Resource of 1.3Mt at 1.7g/t gold for 73koz, but we envisage the deposit providing blended feed for South Kalgoorlie operation from the 2H 2017. In the production profile below, we assume mining rates from the HBJ underground of 500ktpa at a head grade of 3.3g/t (reserve 931kt at 3.3g/t for 98koz) as the bulk of the ore feed. We have assumed one additional year of production based on the current 663koz HBJ resource, which may ultimately prove to be conservative. We expect the mine to average ~70kozpa from FY17 for 3 years at an AISC of A$1156/oz. Precious Metals - Producer 13 Westgold Resources Limited Initiation of Coverage Figure 17: Modelled production and AISC profile for the South Kalgoorlie operation Source: Company Reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates WGX also owns a lithium royalty as part of the South Kalgoorlie landholding. We include A$20m for the lithium royalty in our sum-of-parts valuation to account for the A$2/t ore mined plus 1.5% gross sales from concentrate produced over the already defined 12Mt, which is set to be mined by Neometals, Ganfeng and Mineral Resources at the Mt Marion lithium project south of Kalgoorlie. Cannon Gold Mine (50% profit share with SAU-ASX) WGX has a financing and profit sharing agreement with SAU over the nearby Cannon gold mine which is currently the bulk of the ore feed. WGX manages all aspects of the operation with ore from the mine being batch processed. All revenue to date has gone to first repay costs with surplus funds split on a profit share 50:50 basis (second profit share payment made on 24 January 2017). As part of the agreement, WGX has made loan funds available to SAU of up to A$2.5m to fund its other working capital requirements, earning interest at 8% pa, secured by a mortgage over the Cannon Mining Tenement. During the DecQ’16, SAU repaid $1.5 million of the principle and made the final outstanding payment of A$1.2m early in the MarQ’17. Mining has been underway at Cannon since September 2015. The current mine plan will see mining and processing completed in the MarQ’17, after which assessment of underground mining opportunities will take place. Production from Cannon to date has produced 30koz of gold. We expect a further 15koz of gold to be produced, as the mining is now into the high grade portion of the orebody at the bottom of the pit. We include WGX’s interest in the operation only at a nominal A$12m, included in development and exploration in our sum-of-parts. Further, production from the agreement is not included in our overall production profile, which in FY17 will account for ~33koz. Fortnum Buy Target Price A$3.05 | 6 February 2017 14 Fortnum was acquired in August 2015 from RNI Ltd (RNI:ASX | Not rated) for 18m MLX shares (a consideration of ~A$18m based on MLX’s share price at the time). The project has produced +1Moz from the historic Horseshoe, Peak Hill and Labouchere mining centers, which were in production until 2006. The project is Precious Metals - Producer 14 Westgold Resources Limited Initiation of Coverage Buy Target Price A$3.05 | 6 February 2017 15 located 150km north of the CMGP, which in our view could allow for synergies with respect to warehousing and shared infrastructure. Refurbishment of the mill is well advanced, with engineering works nearing completion, and the only remaining long lead item outstanding being the power station and final switchgear (due to be finalised on 20 February 2017) in time for wet commissioning. As was previously advised, cost estimates for the entire project re-start to first gold production of A$15m remain on budget and first gold production is expected late in the MarQ’17. Ore processing will commence on accumulated low grade stockpiles which will be progressively replaced by higher grade ores from open pit and underground with an objective to achieve steady state production of ~70kozpa at AISC of A$1,280/oz. The current development strategy for Fortnum is being run in four key phases as outlined below. We note that WGX has indicated that following a review of the Starlight underground mine, a decision was made to bring forward the mine dewatering and development schedule to expedite the steady supply of higher-grade underground feed. Phase 1: Refurbish the plant, re-align permits and approvals, commission and operate on existing low grade ore stockpiles, which we anticipate will all occur in the MarQ’17. Stockpiles could provide an initial 12 months of feed on their own; however, we expect WGX to only commission the project on stockpiles and utilise them until the underground is on line meaningfully. Phase 2: Commence open pit mining from planned cutbacks to the existing open pits and extensions. Start the mining of these when the plant is operational and slowly replace the lower grade stocks with these higher grade open pit. Preparation works for open pit mining are complete and WGX is well advanced with contractors submitting tenders and mine dewatering of the old pit voids also commencing. We expect mining to commence late in the MarQ’17. Phase 3: Dewater and recommission the Starlight Underground mine and replace/supplement the other ores with these higher grade ores increasing overall production. We expect this to take 12 months, where steady state mine rates would be 350-400ktpa. Phase 4: Explore and develop the numerous targets and opportunities to create sustainable production from the existing 2Moz resource base. We see significant opportunities for longer mine life, beyond the initial five-year plan, from known resources which require further validation and drilling. In particular, the Peak Hill region which is yet to be considered in the development strategy. Key inputs underpinning our valuation for Fortnum are outlined below. We have incorporated gradual ramp-up, processing a blend of historic stockpiled ore and open pit material for the initial nine months, then transitioning to a blend of open pit and underground ore. We currently expect production to begin in MarQ’17, on stockpiled ore which has a defined resource 810kt at 0.81g/t for 20.5koz. Precious Metals - Producer 15 Westgold Resources Limited Initiation of Coverage Figure 18: Key operating assumptions - Fortnum F ortnum Resource Reserve CG asssumed mine life Milling capacity Recovery CG assumed head grade CG assumed production CG assumed AISC CG project NPV 30Mt at 1.84g/t for 1.75Moz 5.4Mt at 1.95g/t for 339koz 5 years 1Mtpa 85% average LOM 2.5g/t 70kozpa (assumes 12 month ramp up) A$1255/oz A$118m Source: Company Reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates The production profile is expected to be supported by a combination of stockpile, open pit and underground ore. The ultimate profile will be determined by sequencing of the underground development particularly with respect to the Starlight and Peak Hill mines. Our assumed production profile is outlined below, noting that the head grades milled sit above the current resource, supported by the assumption of production from the Starlight underground mine which has a resource of 1.6Mt at 3g/t. Figure 19: Modelled production and AISC profile for Fortnum project Source: Company Reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates Rover Buy Target Price A$3.05 | 6 February 2017 16 The Rover Project is a postulated undercover repetition of the prolific Tennant Creek goldfield located 80km to the north-east. The project area is proximal to a major infrastructure corridor adjacent to Central Australian Railway, gas pipeline and Stuart Highway. Exploration to date has tested a small number of anomalies and significant mineralised IOCG (iron oxide copper-gold) systems have been discovered at the Rover 1 and Explorer 142 prospects. In addition, significant lead-zinc-silver discoveries have been made at Explorer 108 and recently at the Curiosity Prospect to the south. Precious Metals - Producer 16 Westgold Resources Limited Initiation of Coverage Figure 20: Rover location map Source: Company Reports Rover has defined Mineral Resource at three projects, namely Rover 1, Explorer 108 and Explorer 142. The tables below are as at 30 June 2016. Figure 21: Resource statement for the Rover polymetallic deposits Source: Company Reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates Buy Target Price A$3.05 | 6 February 2017 17 Precious Metals - Producer 17 Westgold Resources Limited Initiation of Coverage Work in the Tennant Creek district continues to be focused on defining the optimal development pathway for the Rover 1 deposit, including additional drilling into an interpreted second bonanza gold and copper zone located between vertical depths of 600-800m. Drilling during 2015/16 successfully outlined this zone with numerous impressive intersections. Figure 22 below highlights some of the better intersections and demonstrates the development potential of the asset. Figure 22: Rover 1 long section Source: Company Reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates Buy Target Price A$3.05 | 6 February 2017 18 We await outcomes of the updated feasibility study before incorporating Rover into our production and capex profile. WGX has previously indicated the potential for Rover to be a +50kozpa operation, but is unlikely to come on line meaningfully before 2020. We value the project at a nominal A$20m until we get better clarity on the capital requirements, operating costs and development timeline. Precious Metals - Producer 18 Westgold Resources Limited Initiation of Coverage Investment Risks Operating risks Companies in production will be subject to risks such as plant/equipment breakdowns, metallurgical (meeting design recoveries within a complex flowsheet), materials handling and other technical issues. An increase in operating costs could reduce the profitability and free cash generation from the operating assets considerably and negatively impact valuation. Further, the actual characteristics of an ore deposit may differ significantly from initial interpretations which can also materially impact forecast production from original expectations. Commodity price and currency fluctuation The company as a gold producer is exposed to commodity price and currency fluctuations, often driven by macro-economic forces including inflationary pressure, interest rates and supply and demand of commodities. These factors are external and could reduce the profitability, costing and prospective outlook for the business. Figure 23: Target price sensitivities to gold price and currency movements $7.00 Change in Target Price $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $0.00 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% Change in input variable Gold Price US$ Exchange Rate Source: Canaccord Genuity estimates Buy Target Price A$3.05 | 6 February 2017 19 Exploration risk Exploration is subject to a number of risks and can require a high rate of capital expenditure. Risks can also be associated with exploration techniques and lack of accuracy in interpretation of geochemical, geophysical, drilling and other data. No assurance can be given that exploration will delineate further minable Reserves. Precious Metals - Producer 19 Westgold Resources Limited Initiation of Coverage Companies references Figure 24: Companies under CG coverage mentioned in this report Company Beadell Resources Doray Minerals Evolution Mining Medusa Mining Metals X Northern Star Reso OceanaGold Corpo Perseus Mining Regis Resources Resolute Mining Saracen Mineral H St Barbara Troy Reosurces Ticker BRD DRM EVN MML MLX NST OCG PRU RRL RSG SAR SBM TRY Rating BUY BUY HOLD SPEC BUY BUY BUY HOLD SPEC BUY HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD SPEC BUY Price Target A$0.40 A$0.85 A$2.40 A$0.80 A$0.95 A$4.40 A$4.30 A$0.65 A$2.85 A$1.40 A$1.10 A$2.25 A$0.35 Analyst Tim McCormack Patrick Chang Reg Spencer Patrick Chang Tim McCormack Tim McCormack Reg Spencer Reg Spencer Tim McCormack Patrick Chang Reg Spencer Reg Spencer Patrick Chang Source: Canaccord Genuity estimates Buy Target Price A$3.05 | 6 February 2017 20 Precious Metals - Producer 20 Westgold Resources Limited Initiation of Coverage Appendix: Important Disclosures Analyst Certification Each authoring analyst of Canaccord Genuity whose name appears on the front page of this research hereby certifies that (i) the recommendations and opinions expressed in this research accurately reflect the authoring analyst’s personal, independent and objective views about any and all of the designated investments or relevant issuers discussed herein that are within such authoring analyst’s coverage universe and (ii) no part of the authoring analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the authoring analyst in the research. Analysts employed outside the US are not registered as research analysts with FINRA. These analysts may not be associated persons of Canaccord Genuity Inc. and therefore may not be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. Sector Coverage Individuals identified as “Sector Coverage” cover a subject company’s industry in the identified jurisdiction, but are not authoring analysts of the report. Investment Recommendation Date and time of first dissemination: February 06, 2017, 02:30 ET Date and time of production: February 06, 2017, 14:47 ET Target Price / Valuation Methodology: Westgold Resources Limited - WGX Our price target on WGX is based on a 1x forward curve NPV5% for the operating assets, net of corporate and other adjustments. Risks to achieving Target Price / Valuation: Westgold Resources Limited - WGX Risks include, but are not limited to: 1) Operating risks include plant/equipment breakdowns, metallurgical (meeting design recoveries within a complex flowsheet), materials handling and other technical issues; 2) Commodity price and currency fluctuation and 3) Exploration risk. Exploration is subject to a number of risks and can require a high rate of capital expenditure. Distribution of Ratings: Global Stock Ratings (as of 02/06/17) Rating Coverage Universe # % Buy 588 61.38% Hold 277 28.91% Sell 31 3.24% Speculative Buy 62 6.47% 958* 100.0% *Total includes stocks that are Under Review IB Clients % 36.39% 16.25% 19.35% 72.58% Canaccord Genuity Ratings System BUY: The stock is expected to generate risk-adjusted returns of over 10% during the next 12 months. HOLD: The stock is expected to generate risk-adjusted returns of 0-10% during the next 12 months. SELL: The stock is expected to generate negative risk-adjusted returns during the next 12 months. NOT RATED: Canaccord Genuity does not provide research coverage of the relevant issuer. “Risk-adjusted return” refers to the expected return in relation to the amount of risk associated with the designated investment or the relevant issuer. Risk Qualifier SPECULATIVE: Stocks bear significantly higher risk that typically cannot be valued by normal fundamental criteria. Investments in the stock may result in material loss. 12-Month Recommendation History (as of date same as the Global Stock Ratings table) A list of all the recommendations on any issuer under coverage that was disseminated during the preceding 12-month period may be obtained at the following website (provided as a hyperlink if this report is being read electronically) http://disclosuresmar.canaccordgenuity.com/EN/Pages/default.aspx Buy Target Price A$3.05 | 6 February 2017 Precious Metals - Producer 21 Westgold Resources Limited Initiation of Coverage Required Company-Specific Disclosures (as of date of this publication) In the past 12 months, Canaccord Genuity or its affiliated companies have received compensation for Investment Banking services from Westgold Resources Limited . Canaccord Genuity or one or more of its affiliated companies intend to seek or expect to receive compensation for Investment Banking services from Westgold Resources Limited in the next three months. 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Copyright © Canaccord Genuity Inc. 2017 – Member FINRA/SIPC Copyright © Canaccord Genuity (Australia) Limited. 2017 – Participant of ASX Group, Chi-x Australia and of the NSX. Authorized and regulated by ASIC. All rights reserved. All material presented in this document, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to Canaccord Genuity Corp., Canaccord Genuity Limited, Canaccord Genuity Inc or Canaccord Genuity Group Inc. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, or transmitted to or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of the entities listed above. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, reproduced, or distributed to any other party including by way of any form of social media, without the prior express written permission of the entities listed above. Buy Target Price A$3.05 | 6 February 2017 Precious Metals - Producer 24
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