The Future of Solar Incentives in Texas

Solar for your
Home and Business
Earth Wind and Fire Energy Summit
Addison Texas
October 4, 2014
Steve Wiese, Clean Energy Associates and Longhorn Solar for the Earth Wind and Fire Energy Summit, October 4, 2014
Clean Energy Associates
• Independent consulting firm specializing in renewable
energy, particularly distributed generation
• Services
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Renewable energy programs
Education and training
Project development
Technical and market analysis
Advocacy
• Clients
• End-use energy consumers, Engineering and construction firms, Clean
energy project developers, Utilities, Government agencies, and
Regulators
• Top distributed solar installer in Texas with
offices in DFW+Austin+San Antonio
• Successful contractor for recent Solarize
Garland project
• Goal: To be the be the best installer
of the best solar equipment at the
best prices for the best customers in Texas
Our Recent Growth:
2009 – 32 kW
2010 – 104 kW
2011 – 242 kW
2012 – 1134 kW
2013 – 1676 kW
2014 – 2024 kW YTD3
Steve Wiese, Clean Energy Associates and Longhorn Solar for the Earth Wind and Fire Energy Summit, October 4, 2014
How Solar Integrates with a Home or Business
Steve Wiese, Clean Energy Associates and Longhorn Solar for the Earth Wind and Fire Energy Summit, October 4, 2014
Solar Panel Technologies
Advice
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Types of Solar Cells
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• Crystalline Silicon (~88% of worldwide market)
– Poly (~60%)
– Mono (~18%)
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Thin Film (~10%)
– Cadmium Telluride (Cd-Te, ~5%)
– Copper Indium Gallium Diselenide (CIGS ~2%)
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Don’t get too caught up
in the latest
developments and
industry press
Best selling technology
is so because it’s bullet
proof
Longest warranties of
any product (25 years)
means you should look
to strong companies
with proven track
records
And for good values
Multi-junction, Nanocrystal, Organic, Plastic, Polymer, Quantum Dot, etc. (~2%)
Steve Wiese, Clean Energy Associates and Longhorn Solar for the Earth Wind and Fire Energy Summit, October 4, 2014
Common Inverter Technologies
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Stand-Alone or String Inverter
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Microinverters and AC Modules
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Benefits – access, simplicity, strong track record, low cost
Drawbacks – slightly less efficient under certain circumstances, less granular performance data
Benefits – slightly more efficient
under certain circumstances, highly
granular performance data
Drawbacks – access, higher cost,
finicky data integration
Advice
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DC Optimizers
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Benefits – slightly
more efficient under
certain
circumstances,
highly granular
performance data
Drawbacks – access,
higher cost, finicky
data integration
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Don’t get too caught up
in the latest
developments and
industry press
Best selling technology
is so because it’s bullet
proof
Steve Wiese, Clean Energy Associates and Longhorn Solar for the Earth Wind and Fire Energy Summit, October 4, 2014
Using Solar Energy
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Solar electricity feeds to home on your side of the utility electric meter
It flows to wherever it’s needed – lights, appliances, etc.
Utility-provided electricity will supplement to match your needs
If you’re generating more than you’re using, energy flows back to the utility
Advice
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Use it any way you like
Be aware of contractual
relationships regarding “green” or
renewable energy credits
Steve Wiese, Clean Energy Associates and Longhorn Solar for the Earth Wind and Fire Energy Summit, October 4, 2014
Realizing Value for Solar Energy
Inflow-Outflow Metering (competitive market,
most common in DFW area)
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Wires company meters inflows and outflows
separately, passes data to retailers for billing
Retailers have no obligation to purchase or credit
customer for outflows
Green Mountain Energy, TXU, and Reliant, and
have buyback
offers for residential customers
http://www.powertochoose.org/enus/Content/Resource/Selling-Renewable-Power
Net Metering (many coops and munis)
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Value (full retail, wholesale energy), rollover policies
Value of Solar (Austin only, so far), FiT or PPA (someday)
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VOS: Utility charges you for all your consumption, regardless of
whether it came from your solar or their wires; utility then
credits you for all solar production, regardless of whether you
used it in your home or exported it as excess energy to the grid
FiT/PPA: Utility contracts directly with customer for solar
production
Steve Wiese, Clean Energy Associates and Longhorn Solar for the Earth Wind and Fire Energy Summit, October 4, 2014
The US Solar Market is Growing Rapidly…
…and
Growth is
Becoming
More
Widespread
Steve Wiese, Clean Energy Associates and Longhorn Solar for the Earth Wind and Fire Energy Summit, October 4, 2014
Solar Prices are Declining…
U.S.
Texas
…and are
Relatively
Low
in Texas
Steve Wiese, Clean Energy Associates and Longhorn Solar for the Earth Wind and Fire Energy Summit, October 4, 2014
Grid Parity…
At $3.22/w-dc
with no incentives
http://www.ilsr.org/projects/solarparitymap/
Steve Wiese, Clean Energy Associates and Longhorn Solar for the Earth Wind and Fire Energy Summit, October 4, 2014
Grid Parity…
At $3.22/w-dc
with 30% Federal ITC
http://www.ilsr.org/projects/solarparitymap/
Steve Wiese, Clean Energy Associates and Longhorn Solar for the Earth Wind and Fire Energy Summit, October 4, 2014
Solar Incentives
are Declining…
Texas Investor-Owned
Utility Solar Incentive Levels
$5.00
$4.00
$3.50
$3.00
U.S.
AE Res
Oncor Res
Entergy Res
TNMP Res
AEP-TCC Res
AEP-TNC Res
SWEPCO Res
EPE Res
Oncor Comm
Entergy Comm
TNMP Comm
AEP-TCC Comm
AEP-TNC Comm
SWEPCO Comm
EPE Comm
$2.50
$2.00
$1.50
$1.00
$0.50
Texas
30% Federal
ITC expires at
the end of
2016 unless
extended
$0.00
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Incentive Levels Offered, $/w-dc
$4.50
Steve Wiese, Clean Energy Associates and Longhorn Solar for the Earth Wind and Fire Energy Summit, October 4, 2014
Key Drivers of Customer Decisions
Motivations for Going Solar
• Environment, legacy,
interest/hobby, network/
peer effects, independence,
conservation theology,
simple economics
• Economics
– Price of solar
– Price of traditional power
(current and forecasted)
– Asset and property value
– Value of money
– Incentives and tax credits
(Utility rebates, federal tax
credit)
Constraints
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Cash or credit rating
Electricity usage
Available roof area
Shading
Alternatives to solar
Steve Wiese, Clean Energy Associates and Longhorn Solar for the Earth Wind and Fire Energy Summit, October 4, 2014
Going Solar
Buying Solar
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Cash – most common in Texas,
straightforward purchase, cash payment
then tax credit
Loan – can help match payment flow to
energy bill reduction, customer owns
the system
Lease – can help match payment flow to
energy bill reduction, third party owns
the system
Others (PPA, ESPC, PACE)
Choosing a Solar Company
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Quality/Thoroughness of Bid
Credentials and Experience
• Licensed electrical contractor
• NABCEP certified installers
Knowledgeable/Attentive Sales Staff
Online Reviews
The “10-2-10 rule of thumb”
(for cash only)
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10c/kWh electricity price
+ $2/w-dc net installed cost of solar (after
rebates, tax credits, etc.)
Yields 10 year simple payback
Steve Wiese, Clean Energy Associates and Longhorn Solar for the Earth Wind and Fire Energy Summit, October 4, 2014
Sample Economics – Oncor 2014
For sample purposes only – not a quotation!
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System offsets 72% of customer’s electricity usage
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$6,300 net cost after rebates and tax credits
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Financed $1550 down yields net zero cash flow
(monthly savings = monthly payment)
Steve Wiese, Clean Energy Associates and Longhorn Solar for the Earth Wind and Fire Energy Summit, October 4, 2014
Some Final Thoughts
Policy and Incentives
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Tweaking the Economics
– Rebates
– Tax credits
– Rate structures
– Financing
Removing Barriers to Competition
– HOA rules
– Solar access
– Consistent, predictable,
efficient permitting processes
Big Questions and Issues
– Declining incentives
– Increasing electricity prices
– Utility rate structures
– Utility participation model
Steve Wiese, Clean Energy Associates and Longhorn Solar for the Earth Wind and Fire Energy Summit, October 4, 2014
Steve Wiese
Clean Energy Associates
(512) 653-9651
[email protected]
Steve Wiese
Longhorn Solar
(512) 837-4800
[email protected]