CARBON FLUXES OVER
TEMPERATE ASIA
N K INDIRA, PS SWATHI, PETER RAYNER,
MICHEL RAMONET AND VINOD K GAUR
ANSWERS SOUGHT:
• How would future climate trends evolve in response to
specified carbon emissions over a given period ?
• How are we faring in achieving desired goals assuming
some agreed regulatory measures in place ?
and temperature
C(X*,t*)=Fn(Xj,tj)[δj*]
C(X*,t*)=F(Xj,tj)
* G(X*,X,t*,t)
C(X*,t*)
Atmospheric transport model
Forward mode
Sc
•CO2 net fluxes
a priori estimation
xb ; var/cov P
-
 (CV)
Atmospheric
transport
H

( C)
t
=
Atmos. Conc.
simulated
ymodel
Inverse mode
Observations
yo ; var/cov R
UNCERTAINTIES
IN CARBON FLUX ESTIMATION
•UNCERTAINTIES IN TRANSPORT MODELS
• INADEQUATE CONCENTRATION OBSERVATIONS
(GURNEY 2002)
TransCom
Regions
The highest CO2 observatory in the world
Probably the only one powered by solar energy
ATMOSPH. CO2 CONCENTRATIONS AT HANLE
AND FLUX ESTIMATIONS FOR TEMERATE ASIA
NETWORK DESIGN FOR IMPROVED
CO2 FLUX ESTIMATIONS
APPROACH: MINIMISATION OF THE
TRACE OF THE COVARIANCES
C(S) -1 = C(So) -1 + JT C(D) -1 J
OF GLOBAL OR EGIONAL SUB-MATRICES
USING THE GENETIC ALGORITHM.
FIGURE SHOWS GLOBAL TRACE METRIC AS A FUNCTION OF ONE ADDITIONAL STATION
TO THE NETWORK OF GURNEY (2004). THE NUMBERS SHOW THE LOCATION S
CHOSEN BY GA FOR 1, 2 OR 5, STATION NETWORKS WHICH MATCHES THE SCORE BEST.
Stations numbered 5 are located by GA, +s are the stations
originally chosen
PROBLEMS
•REDUCTION/ ATTRIBUTION OF UNCERTAINTIES
IN FLUX ESTIMATIONS BECAUSE OF
INADEQUATE DATA
• TENDENCY FOR OPTIMAL NETWORKS
IDENTIFIED BY GA TO HAVE CLUSTERING OF
STATIONS
C(D) = AT CT(D) + AN CN(D)
[ CT(D)i ]1/2 ~ 0.32 + (0.32/M) VARi q(i,t)
[ CN(D)i ]1/2 ~ NPPi exp[(- (Pi - P*)/H]
Upper left figure represents the advective Cd
and the upper right , that due to PP. The lower left is the total effect