',))86,212)%,2$&7,9(02/(&8/(6
E\
<8/$1=+$1*
$WKHVLVVXEPLWWHGWRWKH
8QLYHUVLW\RI%LUPLQJKDP
IRUWKHGHJUHHRI
'2&7252)3+,/2623+<
6FKRRORI&KHPLFDO(QJLQHHULQJ
7KH8QLYHUVLW\RI%LUPLQJKDP
6HSWHPEHU
University of Birmingham Research Archive
e-theses repository
This unpublished thesis/dissertation is copyright of the author and/or third
parties. The intellectual property rights of the author or third parties in respect
of this work are as defined by The Copyright Designs and Patents Act 1988 or
as modified by any successor legislation.
Any use made of information contained in this thesis/dissertation must be in
accordance with that legislation and must be properly acknowledged. Further
distribution or reproduction in any format is prohibited without the permission
of the copyright holder.
$EVWUDFW
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
$EVWUDFW
$Q DUWLILFLDO OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH V\VWHP KDV EHHQ HPSOR\HG IRU LQ YLWUR VFUHHQLQJ RI WKH
KXPDQ DEVRUSWLRQ RI ELRORJLFDOO\ DFWLYH PROHFXOHV IRU DSSOLFDWLRQV LQ QXWULWLRQ DQG GUXJ
WUHDWPHQWV ,QLWLDO ZRUN ZLWK PROHFXOHV KDYLQJ VPDOO SHUPHDELOLWLHV GHPRQVWUDWHG WKDW WKH\
FRXOG QRW EH PHDVXUHG XVLQJ WKH WHFKQLTXH VLQFH WKH\ ZHUH DEVRUEHG E\ WKH PHPEUDQH $
FULWLFDO LQQRYDWLRQ ZDV WR SUHWUHDW WKH PHPEUDQH E\ HTXLOLEUDWLQJ LW ZLWK WKH PROHFXOH RI
LQWHUHVW VLQFH WKLV DYRLGV WKH DEVRUSWLRQ SUREOHP EXW UHTXLUHG PRUH FRPSOH[ GDWD DQDO\VLV
%LRDFWLYHPROHFXOHVZLWKVWURQJDQWLR[LGDQWDQGDQWLFDQFHUDFWLYLW\H[WUDFWHGIURPJUHHQWHD
VKRZHG D VWURQJ DIILQLW\ WR WKH PHPEUDQH ZKLFK VXJJHVWV WKDW WKLV VLJQLILFDQWO\ OLPLWV
ELRDYDLODELOLW\ (WKDQRO EXW QRW GLPHWK\O VXOIR[LGH '062 ZDV IRXQG WR HQKDQFH WKH
GLIIXVLRQRISDUDFHWDPROWKHRSK\OOLQHDF\FORYLUQDGRORODQGDPSKRWHULFLQ%7KHSRWHQWLDO
V\QHUJLVWLFHIIHFWRQWKHGLIIXVLRQRISDUDFHWDPROLQWKHSUHVHQFHRIFDIIHLQHZDVLQYHVWLJDWHG
EXW LW ZDV VKRZQ WR KDYH D GHWULPHQWDO HIIHFW )LQDOO\ DQ HIIHFWLYH SURWHFWLRQ RI
(SLJDOORFDWHFKLQJDOODWH(*&*IURPWKHHQYLURQPHQWZDVDFKLHYHGE\WKHSUHSDUDWLRQRI
EHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVDVDFDUULHU
Acknowledgements
Firstly, I would like to show my deepest gratitude to my supervisors Prof. Mike Adams and
Prof. Zhibing Zhang for their outstanding guidance and constant support. It is their valuable
advice and inspiration that made certain that my work was to maintain a consistent standard
and it is their remarkable patience that kept me motivated and encouraged when facing
challenges.
I give my great thanks to Dr. James Bowen for his excellent technical supports and useful
discussions which I benefit a lot, and who is always being an excellent example of a scientific
researcher to me.
I would also like to give my sincere thanks to Dr. Shiping Zhu and Dr. Guoping Lian from
Unilever for giving me an unforgettable industrial experience, and my gratitude extends to
The School of Chemical Engineering at The University of Birmingham, Unilever, Colworth,
China Scholarship Council who have provided me the precious opportunity and financial
support.
I give my great thanks to Dr. Ruben Mercade-Prieto, my fellow members of my research
group and the excellent staff in The School of Chemical Engineering including Hazel
Jennings, Elaine Mitchell, Lynn Draper, and Kathleen Hynes for their countless help and
efforts.
I would thank for my dear grandma and my parents for always being understanding and
encouraging throughout my difficult time in my studies. I would also thank my boyfriend Kai
Lee for his constant encouragement and his help on the MATLAB, who himself is an
excellent PhD student.
7DEOHRI&RQWHQWV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
7$%/(2)&217(176
7$%/(2)&217(176,
/,672)),*85(69,
/,672)7$%/(6;,,,
120(1&/$785(;,9
&+$37(5,1752'8&7,21
352-(&7723,&$1'%$&.*5281' 2%-(&7,9(6
7+(6,6287/,1(
&+$37(5/,7(5$785(5(9,(:
*$6752,17(67,1$/$%62537,21$1'3(50($%,/,7<7+528*+%,2/2*,&$/0(0%5$1(6
3+<6,2&+(0,&$/'(7(50,1$176,102/(&8/$5',))86,21 3K\VLRFKHPLFDOSURSHUWLHVRIWKHPHPEUDQH
3K\VLRFKHPLFDOSURSHUWLHVRIWKHGLIIXVDQWV
35(',&7,212)*$6752,17(67,1$/$%62537,21
3UHGLFWLRQRIJDVWURLQWHVWLQDODEVRUSWLRQIURPDQLPDOWHVW
3UHGLFWLRQRIJDVWURLQWHVWLQDODEVRUSWLRQIURP&DFRFHOOOLQHDQG$FHOOOLQH
3UHGLFWLRQRIJDVWURLQWHVWLQDODEVRUSWLRQIURPDUWLILFLDOPHPEUDQHDVVD\
$OWHUQDWLYHPHWKRGVIRUSUHGLFWLRQRIJDVWURLQWHVWLQDODEVRUSWLRQ
,1752'8&7,212)7+(/,32620(0(0%5$1($6$1$57,),&,$/0(0%5$1($66$< 7($32/<3+(12/6$1'7+((1&$368/$7,217(&+1,48(6
7HDSRO\SKHQROV
6WDELOLW\RIWKH736
(QFDSVXODWLRQRIWKH73
',6&866,21 6800$5< BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
,
7DEOHRI&RQWHQWV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&+$37(50$7(5,$/6$1'0(7+2'6
02/(&8/$5',))86,217+528*+7+(/,32620(0(0%5$1(
0DWHULDOV
0DQXIDFWXUHWHFKQLTXHRIWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
6L]HPHDVXUHPHQWRIWKHOLSRVRPH
&KDUDFWHULVDWLRQRIWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
3HUPHDELOLW\PHDVXUHPHQWV
0DVVDEVRUSWLRQPHDVXUHPHQWV
0DWKHPDWLFPRGHOOLQJRIWKHGLIIXVLRQWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
7KHLPSDFWRIWKHGHVRUSWLRQRQWKHSHUPHDELOLW\
3+<6,&2&+(0,&$/(1+$1&(0(172)7+(02/(&8/$5',))86,217+528*+7+(/,32620(0(0%5$1(
0DWHULDOV
89FDOLEUDWLRQRIWKHPRGHOPROHFXOHV
+3/&DQDO\VLV
'LIIXVLRQRIWKHPRGHOGLIIXVDQWVWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
7+(',))86,212)7+(7367+528*+7+(/,32620(0(0%5$1(
0DWHULDOV
89FDOLEUDWLRQRIWKH73V
$EVRUSWLRQRIWKH73VE\WKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
7KHGLIIXVLRQRIWKH73VWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
7KHSK\VLFRFKHPLFDOHQKDQFHPHQWRIWKHGLIIXVLRQRI(*&*WKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
&+$37(502/(&8/$5',))86,217+528*+7+(/,32620(0(0%5$1(
,1752'8&7,21 5(68/76
6L]HGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKHOLSRVRPHDIWHUH[WUXVLRQ
&U\R6(0H[DPLQDWLRQRIWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
3KRVSKROLSLGDVVD\RIWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
,,
7DEOHRI&RQWHQWV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
3UHWUHDWPHQWRIWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
0DVVDEVRUSWLRQRIFDIIHLQHLQWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
7KHFRQWLQXRXVGLIIXVLRQRIFDIIHLQHDIWHUSUHWUHDWPHQWDQGWKHLQIOXHQFHRIDJLWDWLRQ
,QIOXHQFHRISURORQJHGSUHWUHDWPHQWWLPHDQGWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQJUDGLHQWRQWKHGLIIXVLRQRI
FDIIHLQH «««««««««««««««««««««««««««««««««««««««««
7KHLPSDFWRIWKHGHVRUSWLRQRQWKHSHUPHDELOLW\
6800$5< &+$37(53+<6,&2&+(0,&$/(1+$1&(0(172)7+(02/(&8/$5',))86,21
7+528*+7+(/,32620(0(0%5$1(
,1752'8&7,21 5(68/76
89FDOLEUDWLRQRIWKHPRGHOGLIIXVDQWV
&RQWLQXRXVGLIIXVLRQRIWKHPRGHOGLIIXVDQWV
3K\VLFRFKHPLFDOHQKDQFHPHQWRIWKHPROHFXODUGLIIXVLRQE\HWKDQRODQG'062
7KHGLIIXVLRQRISDUDFHWDPROZLWKFDIIHLQHWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
6800$5< &+$37(57+(',))86,212)7+(7367+528*+7+(/,32620(0(0%5$1(
,1752'8&7,21 5(68/76
89FDOLEUDWLRQRIWKH73V
7KHDEVRUSWLRQRIWKH73VE\WKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
7KHLQIOXHQFHRIWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRI(*&*RQLWVDEVRUSWLRQLVRWKHUPV
7KHGLIIXVLRQRI(&*(&DQG(*&WKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
7KHGLIIXVLRQRI(*&*WKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
7KHSK\VLFRFKHPLFDOHQKDQFHPHQWRIWKHGLIIXVLRQRI(*&*WKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPH
PHPEUDQH«
6800$5< &+$37(5(1&$368/$7,212)(*&*
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
,,,
7DEOHRI&RQWHQWV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
,1752'8&7,21 0$7(5,$/6$1'0(7+2'6 0DWHULDOV
7KHPHWKRGRIPDNLQJEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHRI(*&*
&KDUDFWHULVDWLRQRIWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUH
(QFDSVXODWLRQHIILFLHQF\RIWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVRI(*&*
,QYLWURUHOHDVHRIWKH(*&*IURPWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUH
/HDNDJHRIWKH(*&*IURPWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUH
5(68/76
(QFDSVXODWLRQHIILFLHQF\RIWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVRI(*&*
6L]HGLVWULEXWLRQVRIWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVRI(*&*
2SWLFDOPLFURVFRSHREVHUYDWLRQRIWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHRI(*&*
,QYLWURUHOHDVHRI(*&*IURPWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHV
/HDNDJHRI(*&*IURPWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHV
',6&866,21 &21&/86,216$1')8785(:25. &+$37(5',6&866,21
&+$5$&7(5,6$7,212)7+(/,32620(0(0%5$1( &217,18286',))86,217+528*+7+(/,32620(:,7+35(75($70(17
0DVVDEVRUSWLRQDQGWKHPROHFXODUGLIIXVLRQZLWKSUHWUHDWPHQW
7KHLPSDFWRIWKHGHVRUSWLRQRQWKHSHUPHDELOLW\
$FRPSDULVRQRIWKHSHUPHDELOLW\REWDLQHGIURPWKHLQYLWURDVVD\VZLWK)D
7+(3+<6,2&+(0,&$/(1+$1&(0(172)7+(02/(&8/$5',))86,217+528*+7+(/,32620(
0(0%5$1( 7KHLPSDFWRIHWKDQRORQWKHGLIIXVLRQWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
7KHLPSDFWRI'062RQWKHGLIIXVLRQWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
7KHV\QHUJHWLFHIIHFWRQWKHGLIIXVLRQRISDUDFHWDPRODQGFDIIHLQH
7+(',))86,212)7+(7367+528*+7+(/,32620(0(0%5$1(
&+$37(529(5$//&21&/86,216$1')8785(:25.
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
,9
7DEOHRI&RQWHQWV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
29(5$//&21&/86,216
)8785(:25.
$33(1',;$
5()(5(1&(6
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
9
/LVWRI)LJXUHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
/,672)),*85(6
)LJXUH 6FKHPDWLF GLDJUDP RI WKH FROXPQDU HSLWKHOLXP ZLWK JREOHW FHOOV DGMDFHQW WR WKH EDVH
PHPEUDQHWKDWLVDWWDFKHGWRWKHFRQQHFWLYHWLVVXHV&DFHFL$XJXVW
)LJXUH 6FKHPDWLF GLDJUDP RI D SKRVSKROLSLGV PROHFXOH D DQG WKH IOXLG PRVDLF PRGHO RI D
SKRVSKROLSLG ELOD\HU E ZLWK SURWHLQV DQG FKROHVWHUROV HPEHGGHG LQ WKH PHPEUDQH 6LQJHU DQG
1LFROVRQ
)LJXUH6FKHPDWLFGUDZLQJRIWKHPDVVWUDQVSRUWWKURXJKDELRORJLFDOPHPEUDQHSDVVLYHWUDQVSRUW
LQFOXGLQJGLIIXVLRQDQGIDFLOLWDWHGGLIIXVLRQDQGDFWLYHWUDQVSRUW
)LJXUH 3K\VLRFKHPLFDO SURSHUWLHV RI PHPEUDQH DQG GLIIXVDQWV DQG WKHLU LQWHUDFWLRQV WKDW
GHWHUPLQHWKHGLIIXVLRQ
)LJXUH6WHDG\VWDWHGLIIXVLRQWKURXJKDKRPRJHQHRXVPHPEUDQHRIWKLFNQHVVRI KWKHGLIIXVDQW
KDVGLIIHUHQWVROXELOLW\LQWKHPHPEUDQHDQGWKHVROXWLRQ**LHELVFK
)LJXUH 'LIIXVLRQ WKURXJK &DFR LQ FXOWXUH ZHOOV WKH GLIIXVDQW DUH GLVVROYHG LQ WKH GRQRU
FKDPEHURIWKHLQVHUWZLWK&DFRFHOO,WZDVWKHQSODFHGLQFXOWXUHZHOOVDVDQDFFHSWRUFKDPEHUWR
FDUU\RXWGLIIXVLRQ&\SURWH[
)LJXUH3$03$GLIIXVLRQWKURXJKDILOWHUPHPEUDQHFRDWHGZLWKSKRVSKROLSLGV7KHGLIIXVDQWLV
GLVVROYHG LQ WKH GRQRU FKDPEHU DQG WUDQVSRUWHG WKURXJK WKH PHPEUDQH LQWR WKH FXOWXUH ZHOOV
&\SURWH[
)LJXUH6FKHPDWLFGUDZLQJRIDOLSRVRPHDSKRVSKROLSLGPROHFXOHDQGFHOOPHPEUDQH'KDWILHOG
8.
)LJXUH&KHPLFDOVWUXFWXUHRIWKHWHDSRO\SKHQROV
)LJXUH9DULRXVVWUXFWXUHVRIPLFURFDSVXOHVSURGXFHGE\GLIIHUHQWSURFHVV
)LJXUH7KHSUHSDUDWLRQPHWKRGRIZD[PLFURVSKHUHV
)LJXUH&KHPLFDOVWUXFWXUHRIDHJJSKRVSKDWLG\OFKROLQHZLWKDK\GURSKLOLFSKRVSKDWHKHDGDQG
WKHK\GURSKRELFWDLOFRQVWLWXWHGE\ORQJIDWW\DFLGK\GURFDUERQFKDLQVDQGEFDIIHLQH
)LJXUH7KHZHOOFXOWXUHSODWHIURP0LOOLSRUH
)LJXUH7KH6ZLQQH[ILOWHUKROGHUILWWHGZLWKGLVSRVDEOHV\ULQJH
)LJXUH7KHGRQRUFKDPEHUNLWFRQVLVWVRIDSXQFKWRRODDQGEDQLQVHUWPDGHRIWKHRXWHUDQG
WKHLQQHUSDUWFDQGGDORFNLQJWRROH7KHGRQRUFKDPEHUZLWKWKHPHPEUDQHORFNHGEHWZHHQ
WKHWZRSDUWVLVVKRZQLQI
)LJXUH)RUPDWLRQRIWKHOLSRVRPHVXVSHQVLRQ
)LJXUH,OOXVWUDWLRQRIGHSRVLWLQJWKHOLSRVRPHRQWRWKHVXEVWUDWHPHPEUDQHFODPSHGLQWKHLQVHUW
E\FHQWULIXJDOIRUFH
)LJXUH0DOYHUQ=HWD6L]HU+336+330DOYHUQLQVWUXPHQWV/WG8.DQGLWVRSWLFDOV\VWHP
0DOYHUQ
)LJXUH7KHFKHPLFDOUHDFWLRQRIWKHFRORXUUHDJHQWZLWKHJJSKRVSKROLSLGVIRU89PHDVXUHPHQW
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
9,
/LVWRI)LJXUHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
)LJXUH$&(896SHFWURSKRWRPHWHUDQGLWVRSWLFDOV\VWHP)LHOG6WHUQKHOOHWDO
)LJXUH$EVRUEDQFHFXUYHRI89VSHFWURSKRWRPHWHU)LHOG6WHUQKHOOHWDO
)LJXUH6FKHPDWLFGLDJUDPRIWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHSHUPHDELOLW\DVVD\PRGHOPROHFXOHVZHUH
GLVVROYHGLQWKH3%6LQWKHLQVHUWDVWKHGRQRUFKDPEHU7KHPROHFXOHVGLIIXVHGWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPH
PHPEUDQHLQWRWKHZHOOVRIWKHFXOWXUHSODWHDVWKHDFFHSWRUFKDPEHUWKDWFRQWDLQHG3%6VROXWLRQ
)LJXUH,OOXVWUDWLRQRIWKHGLIIXVLRQSURFHVV
)LJXUH7KHDVVXPSWLRQRIDOLQHDUFRQFHQWUDWLRQJUDGLHQWLQWKHPHPEUDQHDIWHUSUHWUHDWPHQW
)LJXUH &KHPLFDO VWUXFWXUHV RI WKH PROHFXOHV LQ WKLV ZRUN ZLWK WKH PROHFXOH ZHLJKW LQ
SDUHQWKHVHV
)LJXUH$VFKHPDWLFGUDZLQJRID+3/&V\VWHP
)LJXUH6FKHPDWLFGLDJUDPRIDQ$)0V\VWHP/LX
)LJXUH7KHVL]HGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKHOLSRVRPHEHIRUHH[WUXVLRQEODFNOLQHDIWHUH[WUXVLRQWKURXJK
QPILOWHUPHPEUDQHUHGOLQHDQGDIWHUVXFFHVVLYHH[WUXVLRQWKURXJKQPDQGQPILOWHUV
EOXHOLQH
)LJXUH7KHVL]HVRIWKHOLSRVRPHH[WUXGHGWKURXJKQPILOWHUILOOHGVTXDUHVDQGQPILOWHU
RSHQVTXDUHVPHPEUDQHDIWHUDQGSDVVHV7KHPHDVXUHPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQWKUHH
WULSOLFDWHVDQGDQDYHUDJHVL]HZDVSORWWHGDJDLQVWSDVVDJHVWKURXJKWKHILOWHUPHPEUDQHZLWKVWDQGDUG
HUURUV
)LJXUH7KHVL]HVRIWKHOLSRVRPHH[WUXGHGWKURXJKQPILOWHUPHPEUDQHDIWHUILOOHGEODFN
VTXDUHVRSHQEODFNVTXDUHVILOOHGJUH\VTXDUHVDQGRSHQJUH\VTXDUHVSDVVHVZLWKLQ
KRXUV 7KH PHDVXUHPHQWV ZHUH SHUIRUPHG LQ WKUHH WULSOLFDWHV DQG DQ DYHUDJH VL]H ZDV SORWWHG
DJDLQVWWLPHZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUV
)LJXUH7KHVL]HVRIWKHOLSRVRPHH[WUXGHGWKURXJKQPILOWHUPHPEUDQHDIWHUILOOHGEODFN
VTXDUHVRSHQEODFNVTXDUHVILOOHGJUH\VTXDUHVDQGRSHQJUH\VTXDUHVSDVVHVZLWKLQ
KRXUV 7KH PHDVXUHPHQWV ZHUH SHUIRUPHG LQ WKUHH WULSOLFDWHV DQG DQ DYHUDJH VL]H ZDV SORWWHG
DJDLQVWWLPHZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUV
)LJXUH &U\R6(0 LPDJHV RI WKH D VXEVWUDWH PHPEUDQH E OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH F LQWHULRU
PRUSKRORJ\ RI WKH VPDOOHU OLSRVRPH OD\HU G W\SLFDO IUDFWXUHG OLSRVRPH LQ WKH VPDOOHU OLSRVRPH
OD\HU H LQWHULRU PRUSKRORJ\ RI WKH ODUJHU OLSRVRPH OD\HU I FRPSDFW OLSRVRPH LQ WKH ODUJHU
OLSRVRPHOD\HUJOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHDIWHUWKHGLIIXVLRQDQGKLQWHULRUPRUSKRORJ\RIWKHODUJHU
OLSRVRPHOD\HULQWKHPHPEUDQHDIWHUWKHGLIIXVLRQ
)LJXUH 7KH FDOLEUDWLRQ RI WKH SKRVSKROLSLG DVVD\ WKH H[SHULPHQWV ZHUH SHUIRUPHG LQ WULSOLFDWHV
DQGDQDYHUDJH89DEVRUEDQFHZDVSORWWHGDJDLQVWFRQFHQWUDWLRQZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUV
)LJXUH7KHFDOLEUDWLRQRIFDIIHLQHDWQPWKHPHDVXUHPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQWULSOLFDWHVDQG
WKHDYHUDJH89DEVRUEDQFHZDVSORWWHGDJDLQVWFRQFHQWUDWLRQZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUV
)LJXUH 7KH LQFUHPHQWDO GLIIXVLRQ RI FDIIHLQH PJP/ WKURXJK D OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH WKH
ILUVWGLIIXVLRQILOOHGVTXDUHVWKHUHSHDWHGGLIIXVLRQRSHQVTXDUHVWKHGLIIXVLRQDIWHUWKHGRQRUVLGH
RIWKHPHPEUDQHZDVSUHWUHDWHGZLWKFDIIHLQHRSHQFLUFOHVDQGWKHGLIIXVLRQDIWHUWKHERWKVLGHVRI
WKH PHPEUDQH ZHUH SUHWUHDWHG ZLWK FDIIHLQH ILOOHG FLUFOHV 7KH HUURU EDUV UHSUHVHQW WKH VWDQGDUG
HUURURIWKUHHUHSHDWV7KHOLQHVDUHWKHEHVWILWWR(TXDWLRQ
)LJXUH 7KH DEVRUSWLRQ RI FDIIHLQH E\ D OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH /0 OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQHV ZHUH
LPPHUVHGLQDPORIPJP/FDIIHLQHVROXWLRQDQG/DOLTXRWVRIWKHVROXWLRQZDVVDPSOHG
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
9,,
/LVWRI)LJXUHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
IRU89PHDVXUHPHQWDWLQWHUYDOVRIPLQ7KHHUURUEDUVUHSUHVHQWWKHVWDQGDUGHUURUVRI
WKUHHUHSHDWV
)LJXUH 7KH SHUPHDELOLW\ REWDLQHG IURP WKHLQFUHPHQWDOPHWKRG IRU FDIIHLQH WKH ILUVW GLIIXVLRQ
RSHQ VTXDUHV DQG WKH GLIIXVLRQ DIWHU WKH PHPEUDQH ZDV SUHWUHDWHG RQ ERWK VLGHV ILOOHG VTXDUHV
7KHHUURUEDUVUHSUHVHQWWKHFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVRIWKUHHUHSHDWV
)LJXUH7KHGHVRUSWLRQRIFDIIHLQHIURPDOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH7KUHHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHVZHUH
ILUVW HTXLOLEUDWHG LQ FDIIHLQH VROXWLRQ IRU K 7KH HUURU EDUV UHSUHVHQW WKH VWDQGDUG HUURUV RI WKUHH
UHSHDWV
)LJXUH7KHFRQWLQXRXVGLIIXVLRQRIFDIIHLQHPJP/WKURXJKDOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHZLWK
SUHWUHDWPHQW ILOOHG FLUFOHV DQG ZLWKRXW SUHWUHDWPHQW FLUFOHV7KH GDWD DUH ILWWHGWR (TXDWLRQ VROLG OLQHV ZLWK FRQILGHQFH LQWHUYDOV GDVKHG OLQHV 7KH HUURUV EDUV UHSUHVHQW WKH VWDQGDUG
HUURUVRIWKUHHUHSHDWV
)LJXUH 7KH FRQWLQXRXV GLIIXVLRQ RI FDIIHLQH LQLWLDO GRQRU FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI PJP/
ZLWKRXW VKDNLQJ RSHQ VTXDUHV DQG WKH GLIIXVLRQ LQ DQ LQFXEDWRU VKDNHU DW USP NHSW DW R&
RSHQ WULDQJOHV 7KH GDWD DUH ILWWHG WR (TXDWLRQ VROLG OLQH ZLWK FRQILGHQFH LQWHUYDOV
GDVKHGOLQHV7KHHUURUEDUVUHSUHVHQWWKHVWDQGDUGHUURUVRIWKUHHUHSHDWV
)LJXUH7KHFRQWLQXRXVGLIIXVLRQRIFDIIHLQHILOOHGFLUFOHVDIWHUSUHWUHDWPHQWWLPHVRIDE
FDQGGK7KHGDWDDUHILWWHGWR(TXDWLRQVROLGOLQHVZLWKFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOV
GDVKHGOLQHV7KHHUURUEDUVUHSUHVHQWVWDQGDUGHUURUVRIWKUHHUHSHDWV
)LJXUH3HUPHDELOLW\RIFDIIHLQHIURPWKHFRQWLQXRXVPHWKRGDIWHUSUHWUHDWPHQWWLPHVRI
DQG K 7KH PHDQ YDOXHV ZHUH FDOFXODWHG IURP WKUHH LQGHSHQGHQW UHSHDWV DQG WKH HUURU EDUV
UHSUHVHQWFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDORIWKHWKUHHUHSHDWV
)LJXUH 7KH FRQWLQXRXV GLIIXVLRQ RI FDIIHLQH IRU GRQRU FRQFHQWUDWLRQV RI D E F
DQGGPJP/7KHGDWDDUHILWWHGWR(TXDWLRQVROLGOLQHVZLWKFRQILGHQFH
LQWHUYDOVGDVKHGOLQHV7KHHUURUEDUVUHSUHVHQWVWDQGDUGHUURUVRIWKUHHUHSHDWV
)LJXUH3HUPHDELOLW\RIFDIIHLQHIRUGRQRUFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIDQGPJPO
7KH PHDQ YDOXHV ZHUH FDOFXODWHG IURP WKUHH LQGHSHQGHQW UHSHDWV DQG WKH HUURU EDUV UHSUHVHQW FRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVRIWKHWKUHHUHSHDWV
)LJXUH'HVRUSWLRQGDWDIRUFDIIHLQHILWWHGWR(TXDWLRQWRREWDLQWKHYDOXHVRI$DQG%ZKLFK
DUHDQGUHVSHFWLYHO\
)LJXUH7KHFRQWLQXRXVGLIIXVLRQRIFDIIHLQHPJP/DIWHUSUHWUHDWPHQW7KHGDWDDUHILWWHG
WR(TXDWLRQXVLQJ0$7/$%
)LJXUH7KH89FDOLEUDWLRQRIWKHILYHGLIIXVDQWVDSDUDFHWDPROEWKHRSK\OOLQHFDF\FORYLU
G QDGRORO DQG H DPSKRWHULFLQ % 7KH FDOLEUDWLRQ ZDV SHUIRUPHG LQ WULSOLFDWHV IRU HDFK GLIIXVDQW
DQGWKHDYHUDJH89DEVRUEDQFHZDVSORWWHGDJDLQVWFRQFHQWUDWLRQZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUV
)LJXUH 7KH FRQWLQXRXV GLIIXVLRQ RI WKH ILYH GLIIXVDQW WKURXJK WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH D
SDUDFHWDPRO E WKHRSK\OOLQH F DF\FORYLU G QDGRORO DQG H DPSKRWHULFLQ % 7KH H[SHULPHQWV
ZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQWULSOLFDWHVDQGDQDYHUDJHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRIWKHGLIIXVDQWLQWKHDFFHSWRUZDVSORWWHG
DV D IXQFWLRQ RI WLPH ILOOHG VTXDUHV ZLWK VWDQGDUG HUURUV 7KH GLIIXVLRQ ZDV ILWWHG ZLWK WKH
FRQWLQXRXVGLIIXVLRQPRGHOLQVROLGOLQHZLWKFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVLQGDVKOLQHV
)LJXUH 7KH SK\VLFRFKHPLFDO HQKDQFHPHQW RI FDIIHLQH GLIIXVLRQ E\ D E DQG F HWKDQRO DQG G '062 WKH H[SHULPHQWV ZHUH SHUIRUPHG LQ WULSOLFDWHV DQG DQ DYHUDJH
FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI FDIIHLQH ZLWK HWKDQRO ILOOHG UHG VTXDUHV '062 RSHQ UHG VTXDUHV DQG ZLWKRXW
ILOOHG EODFN VTXDUHV LQ WKH DFFHSWRU FKDPEHU ZDV SORWWHG DJDLQVW WLPH ZLWK VWDQGDUG HUURUV 7KH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
9,,,
/LVWRI)LJXUHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
GLIIXVLRQZDVILWWHGZLWKWKHFRQWLQXRXVGLIIXVLRQPRGHOLQVROLGOLQHZLWKFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOV
LQGDVKOLQHV
)LJXUH 7KH SK\VLFRFKHPLFDO HQKDQFHPHQW EDVHG RQ WKH SHUPHDELOLW\ REWDLQHG IURP )LJXUH
RIWKHYYHWKDQRODQGYY'062RQWKHGLIIXVLRQRI
PJP/FDIIHLQH(UURUVEDUVDUHWKHFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVRIWKUHHUHSHDWV
)LJXUH 7KH SK\VLFRFKHPLFDO HQKDQFHPHQW RI PROHFXODU GLIIXVLRQ E\ HWKDQRO'062 D
SDUDFHWDPROLQHWKDQROESDUDFHWDPROLQ'062FWKHRSK\OOLQHLQHWKDQROG
WKHRSK\OOLQHLQ'062HDF\FORYLULQHWKDQROIDF\FORYLULQ'062JQDGRORO
LQHWKDQROKQDGROROLQ'062LDPSKRWHULFLQ%LQHWKDQRODQGMDPSKRWHULFLQ
%LQ'0627KHH[SHULPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQWULSOLFDWHVDQGDQDYHUDJHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRIWKH
GLIIXVDQW ZLWK HWKDQRO ILOOHG UHG VTXDUHV '062 RSHQ UHG VTXDUHV DQG ZLWKRXW ILOOHG EODFN
VTXDUHVLQWKHDFFHSWRUZDVSORWWHGDJDLQVWWLPHZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUV7KHGLIIXVLRQZDVILWWHGZLWK
WKHFRQWLQXRXVGLIIXVLRQPRGHOLQVROLGOLQHZLWKFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVLQGDVKOLQHV
)LJXUH 7KH SHUPHDELOLW\ RI WKH PRGHO GLIIXVDQWV ZLWKZLWKRXW GLIIXVLRQ HQKDQFHUV HWKDQRO'062REWDLQHGIURPWKHILWWLQJVLQ)LJXUH7KHHUURUEDUVDUHWKHFRQILGHQFH
LQWHUYDOVRIWKUHHUHSHDWV
)LJXUH7KH<RXQJ¶VPRGXOXVRIWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHDIWHUSUHWUHDWHGZLWK3%6VROXWLRQ
HWKDQRO DQG '062 VROXWLRQ7KH HUURU EDUVUHSUHVHQWWKH FRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOV IURP PHDVXUHPHQWV
)LJXUH7KHKDUGQHVVRIWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHDIWHUSUHWUHDWHGZLWKZDWHUHWKDQRODQG
'062VROXWLRQ7KHHUURUEDUVUHSUHVHQWWKHFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVIURPPHDVXUHPHQWV
)LJXUH6L]HDQGVL]HGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKH(3&OLSRVRPHWUHDWHGZLWKHWKDQROPHDVXUHG
E\+336DOLSRVRPHH[WUXGHGWKURXJKWKHQPSRO\FDUERQDWHPHPEUDQHILOWHUDQGEOLSRVRPH
H[WUXGHGWKURXJKWKHQPSRO\FDUERQDWHPHPEUDQHILOWHU$OOWKHPHDVXUHPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHG
LQWULSOLFDWHVDQGDQDYHUDJHOLJKWLQWHQVLW\GLVWULEXWLRQZDVSORWWHG
)LJXUH$QH[DPSOHRIWKHVWDQGDUGVROXWLRQRIPJP/SDUDFHWDPROLQPJP/FDIIHLQH
VFDQQHG LQ +3/& DW QP WKHSHDN DW PLQLVWKDWRI SDUDFHWDPRODQG PLQ LV WKDW RI
FDIIHLQH
)LJXUH7KHFDOLEUDWLRQRISDUDFHWDPROLQFDIIHLQHE\+3/&DWQP7KHPHDVXUHPHQWVZHUH
SHUIRUPHG LQ WULSOLFDWHV DQG DQ DYHUDJH SHDN DUHD ZDV SORWWHG DJDLQVW FRQFHQWUDWLRQ ZLWK VWDQGDUG
HUURUV
)LJXUH7KHGLIIXVLRQRIPJP/SDUDFHWDPROZLWKRXWFDIIHLQHDQGZLWKDPJP/FDIIHLQHE
PJP/FDIIHLQHDQGFPJP/FDIIHLQHWKHH[SHULPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQWULSOLFDWHVDQGDQ
DYHUDJHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRISDUDFHWDPROLQWKHDFFHSWRUFKDPEHUZDVSORWWHGDJDLQVWWLPHZLWKVWDQGDUG
HUURUV7KHGLIIXVLRQGDWDLQILOOHGVTXDUHVZDVILWWHGZLWKFRQWLQXRXVGLIIXVLRQPRGHOLQVROLGOLQH
ZLWKFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVLQGDVKOLQHV
)LJXUH 7KH SHUPHDELOLW\ RI PJP/ SDUDFHWDPRO LQ DQG PJP/ FDIIHLQHZLWKRXW
FDIIHLQHREWDLQHGIURPWKHILWWLQJVLQ)LJXUH7KHHUURUEDUVDUHWKHFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVRI
WKUHHUHSHDWV
)LJXUH$QH[DPSOHRIWKHVWDQGDUGVROXWLRQRIPJP/FDIIHLQHLQPJP/SDUDFHWDPRO
VFDQQHG LQ +3/& DW QP WKHSHDN DW PLQLVWKDWRI SDUDFHWDPRODQG PLQ LV WKDW RI
FDIIHLQH
)LJXUH 7KH FDOLEUDWLRQ RI FDIIHLQH ZLWK SDUDFHWDPRO E\ +3/& DW QP 7KH PHDVXUHPHQWV
ZHUH SHUIRUPHG LQ WULSOLFDWHV DQG DQ DYHUDJH SHDN DUHD ZDV SORWWHG DJDLQVW FRQFHQWUDWLRQ ZLWK
VWDQGDUGHUURUV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
,;
/LVWRI)LJXUHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
)LJXUH 7KH GLIIXVLRQ RI D PJP/ FDIIHLQH ZLWK SDUDFHWDPRO E PJP/ FDIIHLQH ZLWK
SDUDFHWDPRO DQG F PJP/ FDIIHLQH ZLWK SDUDFHWDPRO WKH H[SHULPHQWV ZHUH SHUIRUPHG LQ
WULSOLFDWHVDQGDQDYHUDJHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRIFDIIHLQHLQWKHDFFHSWRUFKDPEHUZDVSORWWHGDJDLQVWWLPH
ZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUV7KHGLIIXVLRQGDWDLQILOOHGVTXDUHVZDVILWWHGZLWKFRQWLQXRXVGLIIXVLRQPRGHO
LQVROLGOLQHZLWKFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVLQGDVKOLQHV
)LJXUH 7KH SHUPHDELOLW\ RI DQG PJP/ FDIIHLQH ZLWK SDUDFHWDPRO REWDLQHG IURP WKH
ILWWLQJVLQ)LJXUH7KHHUURUEDUVDUHWKHFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVRIWKUHHUHSHDWV
)LJXUH89FDOLEUDWLRQRID(*&*E(&*F(&DQGG(*&$OOWKHPHDVXUHPHQWVZHUH
SHUIRUPHGLQWULSOLFDWHVDQGWKHDYHUDJH89DEVRUEDQFHZDVSORWWHGDJDLQVWWLPHZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUV
)LJXUH 7KH DEVRUSWLRQ RI WKH IRXU WHD SRO\SKHQROV E\ SHU PJ RI OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH ZLWKLQ KRXUV OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQHV ZHUH SODFHG LQWKH PO VROXWLRQ RI HDFK WHD SRO\SKHQRO(UURU EDUV
UHSUHVHQWVWDQGDUGHUURURIWKUHHUHSHDWV
)LJXUH 7KH DEVRUSWLRQ NLQHWLFV RI D (*&* E (&*DQG F(&WKH DEVRUEHG DPRXQW RI WKH
WKUHH73VIURP)LJXUH7KHVROLGOLQHVDUHWKHEHVWILWVWR(TXDWLRQZLWKWKHFRQILGHQFH
LQWHUYDOVVKRZQDVWKHGDVKOLQHV
)LJXUH $EVRUSWLRQ RI (*&* DW GLIIHUHQW FRQFHQWUDWLRQV E\ SHU PJ RI OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQHV ZHUH LPPHUVHG LQ WKH PO VROXWLRQ RI HDFK (*&* VROXWLRQ (UURU EDUV
UHSUHVHQWVWDQGDUGHUURURIWKUHHUHSHDWV
)LJXUH7KHDEVRUSWLRQNLQHWLFVRI(*&*DWDPJP/EPJP/FPJP/DQGG
PJP/WKHDEVRUEHGDPRXQWRIWKH(*&*DWGLIIHUHQWFRQFHQWUDWLRQVIURP)LJXUH7KHVROLG
OLQHVDUHWKHEHVWILWVWR(TXDWLRQZLWKWKHFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVVKRZQDVWKHGDVKOLQHV
)LJXUH7KHGLIIXVLRQDQGUHOHDVHRI(&*DIWHUWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHZDVSUHWUHDWHGZLWKWKH
PJPO (&* RYHUQLJKW 7KH H[SHULPHQWV ZHUH SHUIRUPHG LQ WULSOLFDWHV DQG DQ DYHUDJH
FRQFHQWUDWLRQZDVSORWWHGDJDLQVWWLPHZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUEDUV
)LJXUH 7KH GLIIXVLRQ RI (& ILOOHG FLUFOHV DQG (*& RSHQ FLUFOHV WKURXJK WKH OLSRVRPH
PHPEUDQH DIWHU SUHWUHDWPHQW ILWWHG E\ WKH FRQWLQXRXV GLIIXVLRQ PRGHO VROLG OLQHV ZLWK FRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVGDVKOLQHV7KHHUURUEDUVUHSUHVHQWVWDQGDUGHUURUVRIWKUHHUHSHDWV7KHVROLG
OLQHVDUHWKHEHVWILWVWR(TXDWLRQZLWKWKHFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVVKRZQDVWKHGDVKOLQHV
)LJXUH 7KH GLIIXVLRQ RI WKH (*&* DIWHU WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH ZDV SUHWUHDWHG ZLWK WKH PJPO(*&*IRUKDVVKRZQLQILOOHGFLUFOHVDQGWKHUHOHDVHRIWKH(*&*WKDWZDVDEVRUEHGE\
WKH OLSVRPH PHPEUDQH DIWHU WKH SUHWUHDWHG 7KH H[SHULPHQWV ZHUH SHUIRUPHG LQ WULSOLFDWHV DQG DQ
DYHUDJHFRQFHQWUDWLRQZDVSORWWHGDJDLQVWWLPHZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUEDUV
)LJXUH 7KH GLIIXVLRQ RI (*&* WKURXJK WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH ZLWK '062 7KH H[SHULPHQWV
ZHUH SHUIRUPHG LQ WULSOLFDWHV DQG DQ DYHUDJH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ ZDV SORWWHG DJDLQVW WLPH ZLWK VWDQGDUG
HUURUEDUV
)LJXUH 7KHGLIIXVLRQ RI (*&* WKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH ZLWK HWKDQRODQG '0627KH
H[SHULPHQWV ZHUH SHUIRUPHG LQ WULSOLFDWHV DQG WKH PHDQ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ ZDV SORWWHG DV D IXQFWLRQ RI
WLPHZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUEDUV
)LJXUH7KHGLIIXVLRQRI(*&*WKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH E\FKDQJLQJWKHS+WRD
EDQGF7KHH[SHULPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQWULSOLFDWHVDQGDQDYHUDJHFRQFHQWUDWLRQZDVSORWWHG
DJDLQVWWLPHZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUEDUV
)LJXUH7KH5DPDQVSHFWUDRIOLSRVRPHVXVSHQVLRQJUH\OLQH(*&*VROXWLRQGDVKOLQHDQGD
PL[WXUHRIERWKVROLGOLQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
;
/LVWRI)LJXUHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
)LJXUH7KH<RXQJ¶VPRGXOXVDQGKDUGQHVVRIWKHOLSRVRPHZLWK(*&*DWS+DQGWHVWHG
E\ $)0 PHDVXUHPHQWV ZHUH SHUIRUPHG DQG WKH HUURUV EDUV UHSUHVHQW WKH FRQILGHQFH
LQWHUYDOV
)LJXUH6FKHPDWLFGUDZLQJRIDDVROLGPHWKRGLQYROYLQJGHSRVLWLRQRQDSODWHRIKRWZD[ZLWK
WKHHQFDSVXODWHGFRPSRXQGDQGEDOLTXLGPHWKRGLQYROYLQJVWLUULQJKRWZD[ZLWKWKHHQFDSVXODWHG
FRPSRXQGLQKRWYHJHWDEOHRLOIROORZHGE\FRROLQJ0HOOHPD9DQ%HQWKXPHWDO
)LJXUH7KHSUHSDUDWLRQRIWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVRI (*&*D7ZHHQDQGEHHVZD[
ZHUHERWKSUHKHDWHGWRR&E(*&*ZDVZHOOGLVSHUVHGLQWKHPHOWHGEHHVZD[E\PL[LQJDQGDQ
2:HPXOVLRQZDVIRUPHGE\YLJRURXVPL[LQJZLWKWKH7ZHHQVROXWLRQDWR&F7KHEHHVZD[
PLFURVSKHUHVZHUHVROLGLILHGE\FRROLQJLQDQLFHEDWK
)LJXUH7KHLPSDFWRIDJLWDWLRQWLPHRQWKHHQFDSVXODWLRQHIILFLHQF\RIWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHV
RI(*&*7KHH[SHULPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQWULSOLFDWHVDQGDQDYHUDJHYDOXHZDVSORWWHGZLWK
FRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOV
)LJXUH 7KH LPSDFW RI ORDGLQJ RQ WKH HQFDSVXODWLRQ HIILFLHQF\ RI WKH EHHVZD[ PLFURVSKHUHV RI
(*&* 7KH H[SHULPHQWV ZHUH SHUIRUPHG LQ WULSOLFDWHV DQG D PHDQ YDOXH ZDV SORWWHG ZLWK FRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOV
)LJXUH 7KH LPSDFW RI DJLWDWLRQ WLPH RQ WKH VL]H GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WKH EHHVZD[ PLFURVSKHUHV RI
(*&* 7KH PHDVXUHPHQWV ZHUH SHUIRUPHG LQ WULSOLFDWHV DQG WKH PHDQ YROXPH GLVWULEXWLRQV DUH
SORWWHG
)LJXUH7KHLPSDFWRIORDGLQJRQWKHVL]HGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVRI(*&*7KH
PHDVXUHPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQWULSOLFDWHVDQGWKHPHDQYROXPHGLVWULEXWLRQVDUHSORWWHG
)LJXUH2SWLFDOPLFURVFRS\ REVHUYDWLRQRIWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVRI(*&*$IRUPXODWLRQ
$%IRUPXODWLRQ%&IRUPXODWLRQ&'IRUPXODWLRQ'(IRUPXODWLRQ()IRUPXODWLRQ)*
W\SLFDO DJJUHJDWHG EHHVZD[ PLFURVSKHUHV ZKHQ DJLWDWLRQ LV XQGHU USP + W\SLFDO DJJUHJDWHG
EHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHZKHQ7ZHHQLVDEVHQW
)LJXUH 7KH LPSDFW RI DJLWDWLRQ WLPH RQ WKH UHOHDVH SURILOH RI (*&* IURP WKH EHHVZD[
PLFURVSKHUHV LQ 3%6 S+ DW R& 7KH H[SHULPHQWV ZHUH SHUIRUPHG LQ WULSOLFDWHV IRU HDFK
IRUPXODWLRQDQGDQDYHUDJHUHOHDVHSHUFHQWDJHZDVSORWWHGDVDIXQFWLRQRIWLPHZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUV
)LJXUH7KHLPSDFWRIWKHORDGLQJRQWKHUHOHDVHSURILOHRI(*&*IURPWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHV
LQ3%6S+DWR&7KHH[SHULPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQWULSOLFDWHVIRUHDFKIRUPXODWLRQDQGDQ
DYHUDJHUHOHDVHSHUFHQWDJHZDVSORWWHGDVDIXQFWLRQRIWLPHZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUV
)LJXUH 7KH UHOHDVH GDWD RI (*&* IURP WKH EHHVZD[ PLFURVSKHUHV ILWWHG E\ +LJXFKL VSKHULFDO
PDWUL[UHOHDVHNLQHWLFVVROLGOLQHZLWKFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVGDVKOLQHV
)LJXUH7KHLPSDFWRIDJLWDWLRQWLPHRQWKHOHDNDJHRI(*&*IURPWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVDV
DIXQFWLRQRIWLPH7KHH[SHULPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQWULSOLFDWHVDQGDQDYHUDJHOHDNDJHZDVSORWWHG
ZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUV
)LJXUH 7KH LPSDFW RI WKH ORDGLQJ SHUFHQWDJH RQ WKH OHDNDJH RI (*&* IURP WKH EHHVZD[
PLFURVSKHUHV DV D IXQFWLRQ RI WLPH 7KH H[SHULPHQWV ZHUH SHUIRUPHG LQ WULSOLFDWHV DQG DQ DYHUDJH
OHDNDJHZDVSORWWHGZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUV
)LJXUH 7KH OHDNDJH GDWD RI (*&* IURP WKH EHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHV ILWWHG E\ +LJXFKL VSKHULFDO
PDWUL[UHOHDVHNLQHWLFVVROLGOLQHZLWKFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVGDVKOLQHV
)LJXUH &RUUHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ KXPDQ DEVRUSWLRQ DQG QRUPDOLVHG SHUPHDELOLW\ REWDLQHG IURP WKH
IROORZLQJLQYLWURPRGHOVDLQFUHPHQWDO)ODWHQ'KDQLNXODHWDODQGFRQWLQXRXVPHWKRGVE
VROXWLRQEDVHG3$03$-$5XHOO$YGHHIDQG7VLQPDQF3$03$ZLWKK\GURSKLOLF
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
;,
/LVWRI)LJXUHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
ILOWHU =KX -LDQJ HW DO G WULOD\HU 3$03$ &KHQ 0XUDZVNL HW DO H &DFR FHOO
PRGHO<D]GDQLDQ*O\QQHWDO<DPDVKLWD)XUXED\DVKLHWDO6LLVVDOR/DLQHHWDO
)LJXUH7KHFKHPLFDOVWUXFWXUHVRIWKH73VZLWKULQJODEHOVRI(*&*%DQG'ULQJ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
;,,
/LVWRI7DEOHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
/,672)7$%/(6
7DEOH $GYDQWDJHV DQG OLPLWDWLRQV RI GLIIHUHQW SHUPHDELOLW\ DVVD\V IRU SUHGLFWLRQ RI KXPDQ
DEVRUSWLRQ
7DEOH7KHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIWKHPRGHOGLIIXVDQWVLQWKHGRQRUFKDPEHU
7DEOH3HUPHDELOLW\YDOXHVIURPWKHLQFUHPHQWDOPHWKRGILWWHGWR(TXDWLRQ
7DEOH7KHȜPD[DQGWKHDEVRUSWLYLW\İRIWKHILYHGLIIXVDQWVLQWKH89VSHFWUXP
7DEOH3HUPHDELOLW\YDOXHVQRUPDOLVHGE\FDIIHLQH
7DEOH7KH89DEVRUSWLYLW\RIWKHIRXU73VDQGWKHLUFRHIILFLHQWRIGHWHUPLQDWLRQ5
7DEOH7KHILUVWRUGHUDEVRUSWLRQFRQVWDQWNDSDUWLWLRQFRHIILFLHQW.LQQ2FWDQRO3%6V\VWHPDQG
WKHFRHIILFLHQWRIGHWHUPLQDWLRQ5
7DEOH7KHILUVWRUGHUDEVRUSWLRQFRQVWDQWNDQGWKHFRHIILFLHQWRIGHWHUPLQDWLRQ5
7DEOH)RUPXODWLRQRIWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVRI(*&*
7DEOH 7KH DJLWDWLRQ WLPH ORDGLQJ ' > @ DQG VSDQ RI WKH EHHVZD[ PLFURVSKHUHV RI (*&*
PHDVXUHGE\0DOYHUQ0DVWHUVL]HU$OOWKHPHDVXUHPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQWULSOLFDWHV
7DEOH 6LPLODULW\ IDFWRU I RI WKHUHOHDVH SURILOHV RI WKH WKUHH IRUPXODWLRQV IRUPXODWLRQ& DVD
UHIHUHQFH
7DEOH 6LPLODULW\ IDFWRUV I RI WKHUHOHDVH SURILOHV RI WKH IRXU IRUPXODWLRQV IRUPXODWLRQ(DV D
UHIHUHQFH
7DEOH6LPLODULW\IDFWRUVIRIWKHOHDNDJHRIWKHWKUHHIRUPXODWLRQVIRUPXODWLRQ&DVDUHIHUHQFH
7DEOH 6LPLODULW\ IDFWRUV I RI WKH OHDNDJHSURILOHV RI WKH IRXU IRUPXODWLRQV IRUPXODWLRQ( DV D
UHIHUHQFH
7DEOH7KHDPRXQWRIWKHHQFDSVXODWHG(*&*LQWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVFDOFXODWHGIURPWKHLU
HQFDSVXODWLRQHIILFLHQF\LQVHFWLRQ
7DEOH7KHSXEOLVKHGRFWDQHZDWHUSDUWLWLRQFRHIILFLHQWVRIWKHGLIIXVDQWV=KX-LDQJHWDO
&RUWL0DHVWUHOOLHWDO
7DEOH3HUPHDELOLW\YDOXHVQRUPDOLVHGE\WKHYDOXHRIFDIIHLQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
;,,,
1RPHQFODWXUH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
120(1&/$785(
$
$UHDFP
$89
89DERUEDQFH
F
&RQFHQWUDWLRQRIWKHDEVRUELQJVSHFLHVPJP/
&
,QLWLDOFRQFHQWUDWLRQPJP/
&$
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRUVROXWLRQPJP/
& '
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHGRQRUVROXWLRQPJP/
&V
6DWXUDWLRQVROXELOLW\LQWKHPDWUL[PJP/
&[
%RXQGDU\FRQFHQWUDWLRQDW[ &[K
%RXQGDU\FRQFHQWUDWLRQDW[ K
'
'LIIXVLRQFRHIILFLHQWFPV
I
6LPLODULW\IDFWRU
)
7KHRUDOGUXJELRDYDLODELOLW\LQKXPDQ
)D +XPDQDEVRUSWLRQIUDFWLRQ
)J 7KHIUDFWLRQWKDWHVFDSHVPHWDEROLVP
)K 7KHIUDFWLRQWKDWHVFDSHVILUVWSDVVKHSDWLFPHWDEROLVP
((
(QFDSVXODWLRQHIILFLHQF\
K
7KLFNQHVVFP
,
,QWHQVLW\RIWKHWUDQVPLWWHGOLJKW
,
,QWHQVLW\RIWKHLQFLGHQWOLJKW
ND
$EVRUSWLRQFRQVWDQWPLQ
NU
5HOHDVHFRQVWDQWV
.
3DUWLWLRQFRHIILFLHQW
.RFW
3DUWLWLRQFRHIILFLHQWEHWZHHQQRFWDQRODQGZDWHU
.RFWDON
3DUWLWLRQFRHIILFLHQWRIQRFWDQRODQGZDWHUPLQXVDONDQHDQGZDWHU
/
3DWKOHQJWKFP
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
;,9
1RPHQFODWXUH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
P
0DVVDEVRUEHGLQWKHPHPEUDQHPJ
P¶
0DVVLQWKHGRQRUVROXWLRQLQWKHDEVRUSWLRQH[SHULPHQWPJ
0W
$PRXQWRIUHOHDVHGGUXJDWWLPHWPRO
Q
1XPEHURIPROHV
3
3HUPHDELOLW\FPV
3DSS
$SSDUHQWSHUPHDELOLW\FPV
W
7LPHV
9
9ROXPHRIWKHPHPEUDQHP/
9$
9ROXPHRIWKHDFFHSWRUFKDPEHUP/
9'
9ROXPHRIWKHGRQRUFKDPEHUP/
9¶
9ROXPHRIWKHGRQRUVROXWLRQLQWKHDEVRUSWLRQH[SHULPHQWP/
İ
$EVRUSWLYLW\
ȜPD[
0D[LPXPDEVRUSWLRQZDYHOHQJWKQP
$EEUHYLDWLRQV
$)0
$WRPLF)RUFH0LFURVFRS\
$,
$FWLYH,QJUHGLHQW
$73
$GHQRVLQH7ULSKRVSKDWH
&6
&KLWRVDQWULSRO\SKRVSKDWH
(&
(SLFDWHFKLQ
(&*
HSLFDWHFKLQJDOODWH
(*&
HSLJDOORFDWHFKLQ
(*&*
(SLJDOORFDWHFKLQJDOODWH
(6(0
(QYLURQPHQWDO6FDQQLQJ(OHFWURQ0LFURVFRS\
'/6
'\QDPLF/LJKW6FDWWHULQJ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
;9
1RPHQFODWXUH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
'062
'LPHWK\O6XOIR[LGH
*,
*DVWURLQWHVWLQDO
*7&
*UHHQ7HD&DWHFKLQ
+3/&
+LJK3HUIRUPDQFH/LTXLG&KURPDWRJUDSK\
+336
+LJK3HUIRUPDQFH3DUWLFOH6L]HU
0:
0ROHFXODU:HLJKW
3$03$
3DUDOOHO$UWLILFLDO0HPEUDQH3HUPHDWLRQ$VVD\
3%6
3KRVSKDWH%XIIHU6ROXWLRQ
36$
3RODU6XUIDFH$UHD
36'
3DUWLFOH6L]H'LVWULEXWLRQ
6(0
6FDQQLQJ(OHFWURQ0LFURVFRS\
73
7HD3RO\SKHQROV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
;9,
&KDSWHU,QWURGXFWLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&+$37(5 ,1752'8&7,21
352-(&7723,&$1'%$&.*5281'
7KHELRDYDLODELOLW\RIDSRWHQWLDOO\DFWLYHLQJUHGLHQW$,LVDPDMRUFRQFHUQGXULQJWKHGHVLJQ
DQGGHYHORSPHQWRISURGXFWVHVSHFLDOO\ IRUWKHIRRGDQGSKDUPDFHXWLFDO VHFWRUV,QJHQHUDO
ELRDYDLODELOLW\LVGHILQHGDVWKHIUDFWLRQRIWKH$,DEVRUEHGDQGQRWPHWDEROLVHGRUH[FUHWHG
IRUSKDUPDFHXWLFDOGUXJV+HDQH\$ORZELRDYDLODELOLW\PHDQLQJDDVPDOOIUDFWLRQ
RI WKH WRWDO $, DGPLVVLRQ LV GLIIXVHG DQG DEVRUEHG DQG E WKH GLIIXVLRQ RI WKH $, LQWRWKH
EORRGFLUFXODWLRQLVUDWKHUVORZDQGOLPLWHGUHVXOWVLQDFRPSURPLVHGHIIHFWLYHQHVVRIWKH$,
GXH WR WKH OLPLWHG FRQFHQWUDWLRQ LQ WKH FLUFXODWLRQ )RU H[DPSOH HSLJDOORFDWHFKLQJDOODWH
(*&*RQH RI SRO\SKHQROV IURP JUHHQ WHD H[WUDFW ZLWK SRWHQW DQWLR[LGDQW DQG DQWLFDQFHU
DFWLYLW\LVUHSRUWHGWRKDYHDORZELRDYDLODELOLW\RIRQO\LQDQLPDOWHVWV+HQQLQJ1LX
HWDO/DPEHUW+RQJHWDO/DPEHUW6DQJHWDO)RUWKRVH$,VZLWKDORZ
ELRDYDLODELOLW\WRJDLQDVSHFLILFFRQFHQWUDWLRQKLJKHQRXJKWREHEHQHILFLDOLQWKHFLUFXODWLRQ
DQLQFUHDVHGGRVHZRXOGEHUHTXLUHGZKLFKFRXOGDOVRUDLVHLVVXHVRIWR[LFLW\DQGFRVWV7KXV
WKHDEVRUSWLRQRIDQ$,LVDFULWLFDOIDFWRULILWLVWREHGHOLYHUHGRUDOO\
,QRUGHUWRH[DPLQHWKHELRDYDLODELOLW\RIDQ$,WKHDEVRUSWLRQUDWHLVYHU\RIWHQLQYHVWLJDWHG
E\ LQ YLYR RU LQ YLWUR DSSURDFKHV DQG WHFKQLTXHV 9HEHU -RKQVRQ HW DO 6XFK
WHFKQLTXHVLQFOXGHDSHUPHDELOLW\DVVD\RIDGUXJFDQGLGDWHZKLFKLVFULWLFDODWDYHU\HDUO\
GHYHORSPHQW VWDJH WR REWDLQ DQ DFFXUDWH SUHGLFWLRQ RI WKH KXPDQ *, DEVRUSWLRQ IRU
HOLPLQDWLQJWKRVHWKDWDUHSRRUO\DEVRUEHG3HUPHDELOLW\DVVD\VDUHXVXDOO\UHTXLUHGWREHORZ
FRVWDQGKLJKWKURXJKSXWZLWKRXWVDFULILFLQJDFFXUDF\%DOLPDQH&KRQJHWDO7KLVLV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU,QWURGXFWLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
SDUWLFXODUO\ WKH FDVH ZKHQ EHLQJ DSSOLHG WR WKH RSWLPLVDWLRQ RI WKH ELRDYDLODELOLW\ RI
IRUPXODWLRQV ZKLFK LQHYLWDEO\ LQYROYHV D ODUJHU QXPEHU RI DVVD\V ,W LV WKXV HVVHQWLDO WR
GHYHORS D ORZFRVW DQG KLJKO\ HIILFLHQW SHUPHDELOLW\ DVVD\ IRU DQ DFFXUDWH SUHGLFWLRQ RI WKH
KXPDQ DEVRUSWLRQ RI WKH $,7KH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI VXFK DVVD\V FRXOG EH H[WHQGHG WR VWXG\ WKH
LPSDFW RI GLIIXVLRQ HQKDQFHUV RQ WKH SHUPHDELOLW\ DQG V\QHUJHWLF HIIHFW RI WZR RU PRUH
FRPSRXQGV LQ WKH IRUPXODWLRQ RQWKHLU SHUPHDELOLW\ E\ XVLQJ WKH LQ YLWUR PRGHO ZKLFK KDV
QRWEHHQH[SORUHGH[WHQVLYHO\
7KRVHSHUPHDELOLW\DVVD\VWKDWKDYH EHHQZHOOVWXGLHG LQWKHSKDUPDFHXWLFDO LQGXVWU\FRXOG
EH DSSOLHG WR IRRG SURGXFWV IRU H[DPSOH WHD SRO\SKHQROV 73V DV PHQWLRQHG DERYH
,PSURYHPHQWV LQ HQKDQFLQJ WKH GLIIXVLRQ RI WKRVH KLJKO\ EHQHILFLDO DQWLR[LGDQW DQG
DQWLFDQFHUPROHFXOHV<DQJDQG:DQJWKURXJKFHOOPHPEUDQHLVOLPLWHGGHVSLWHRIWKH
DZDUHQHVV RI WKHLU VWURQJ LQWHUDFWLRQV ZLWK OLSLG ELOD\HU 6LUN %URZQ HW DO $Q
LPSRUWDQWIDFWRULQWKHELRDYDLODELOLW\RUDOGRVHG$,V LVWKHLUSURWHFWLRQ IURPGHJUDGDWLRQ LQ
WKHVWRPDFKDQGDFRPPRQDSSURDFKLVWRXVHHQFDSVXODWLRQ
2%-(&7,9(6
7KHPDMRUREMHFWLYHVRIWKLVUHVHDUFKDUH
x
7R GHYHORS DQ DUWLILFLDO PHPEUDQH V\VWHP IRU D EHWWHU SUHGLFWLRQ RI KXPDQ DEVRUSWLRQ
ZKLFKFRXOGEHH[WHQVLYHO\HPSOR\HGDVDXVHIXOSURFHGXUHWRXQGHUVWDQGDQGPLPLFWKH
LQYLYRSHUPHDWLRQRIYDULRXV$,VWKURXJKELRORJLFDOPHPEUDQHVVXFKWKDW
o XQGHVLUDEOHDQLPDOWHVWVFRXOGEHDYRLGHGRUUHGXFHG
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU,QWURGXFWLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
o HIILFLHQF\ LQ GUXJ VFUHHQLQJ DW WKH YHU\ ILUVW VWDJH RI GHYHORSPHQW FRXOG EH
GUDPDWLFDOO\LQFUHDVHGDQG
o LW FDQ VHUYH DV D ORZ FRVW UHOLDEOH DQG UHSURGXFLEOH DUWLILFLDO V\VWHP IRU IXUWKHU
LQYHVWLJDWLRQVRIDPXFKPRUHFRPSOH[ELRORJLFDOV\VWHPV
x
7R H[SORUH WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH LQ YLWUR DVVD\ WRWKH SK\VLFRFKHPLFDO HQKDQFHPHQW RI
WKHPROHFXODUGLIIXVLRQDQGWKHV\QHUJHWLFHIIHFWRQWKHGLIIXVLRQRIYDULRXVFRPSRXQGV
x
7RGHYHORSDPHWKRGIRUHQFDSVXODWLQJ(*&*DQGLQYHVWLJDWHWKHLQYLWURUHOHDVHSURILOH
DQGORQJWHUPOHDNDJHRIWKH$,
7+(6,6287/,1(
7KHRUJDQLVDWLRQRIWKHFKDSWHUVLQWKLVWKHVLVWRJHWKHUZLWKEULHIVXPPDULHVDUHJLYHQEHORZ
&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUHUHYLHZWKHKXPDQDEVRUSWLRQDQGLQYLWURDVVD\VDUHLQWURGXFHGZKLFK
LQVSLUHG WKLV ZRUN DQG OHDG WR WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH V\VWHP 5HFHQW
UHVHDUFKRQWHDSRO\SKHQROVLVVXPPDULVHG
&KDSWHU 0DWHULDOV DQG PHWKRGV WKH PDWHULDO DQG PHWKRGV WR PDNH WKH OLSRVRPH
PHPEUDQH DQG WKH GLIIXVLRQ DUH LQWURGXFHG DQG WKH DSSOLFDWLRQV RI WKH LQVWUXPHQWV EHLQJ
XVHGWRFKDUDFWHULVHWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHLVGHVFULEHG
&KDSWHU 0ROHFXODUGLIIXVLRQWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHWKHGLIIXVLRQRIFDIIHLQHLV
GHVFULEHG DV ZHOO DV WKH DEVRUSWLRQ LQ WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH WR HVWDEOLVK DQ LPSURYHG
OLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHPRGHO
&KDSWHU 3K\VLFRFKHPLFDO HQKDQFHPHQW RI WKH PROHFXODU GLIIXVLRQ WKURXJK WKH OLSRVRPH
PHPEUDQHWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHGLIIXVLRQRIILYHRWKHUPRGHOGLIIXVDQWVDQGWKHFKDUDFWHULVDWLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU,QWURGXFWLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
RIWKHOLSRVRPHZLWKZLWKRXWHQKDQFHUVDUHSUHVHQWHG,QDGGLWLRQWKHUHVXOWVDUHJLYHQIRUDQ
LQYHVWLJDWLRQ RI WKH SRVVLEOH V\QHUJ\ RI FDIIHLQH XVLQJ WKH LPSURYHG OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH
PRGHO
&KDSWHU7KHGLIIXVLRQRIWKH73VWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHWKLVFKDSWHUVXPPDULVHV
WKH UHVXOWV REWDLQHG XVLQJ WKH LPSURYHG OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH PRGHO IRU WKH GLIIXVLRQ RI WKH
73V LQFOXGLQJ WKH LQYHVWLJDWLRQ RI WKH DEVRUSWLRQ RI WKH 73V WR XQGHUVWDQG WKH LQWHUDFWLRQV
ZLWKWKHSKRVSKDWLG\OFKROLQH
&KDSWHU (QFDSVXODWLRQ RI (*&* WKH PHWKRG DQG FKDUDFWHULVDWLRQ WHFKQLTXHV DUH
LQWURGXFHG IRU IRUPLQJ EHHVZD[ PLFURVSKHUHV RI (*&* 7KH UHVXOWV RI WKH UHOHDVH DQG
OHDNDJHRIWKHHQFDSVXODWHG(*&*DUHDOVRGHVFULEHG
&KDSWHU'LVFXVVLRQDGLVFXVVLRQRIWKHUHVXOWVLQ&KDSWHULVSUHVHQWHG
&KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQVWKHRYHUDOOFRQFOXVLRQVRIWKHSURMHFWDQGIXWXUHZRUNDUHSUHVHQWHG
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&+$37(5 /,7(5$785(5(9,(:
,QWKLVFKDSWHUDEULHILQWURGXFWLRQWRWKHKXPDQDEVRUSWLRQRIPROHFXOHVLVPDGHLQRUGHUWR
H[SODLQ WKH VLWH RI WKH DEVRUSWLRQ WKH DEVRUSWLRQ SURFHVV DQG WKH IDFWRUV LQIOXHQFLQJ
DEVRUSWLRQ 5HFHQW UHVHDUFK FRQFHUQLQJ WKH SUHGLFWLRQ RI KXPDQ SKDUPDFRNLQHWLFV DUH
VXPPDULVHG SDUWLFXODUO\ FRQFHUQLQJ WKH ZLGHO\ XVHG LQ YLWUR DVVD\V WKH SDUDOOHO DUWLILFLDO
PHPEUDQH SHUPHDWLRQ DVVD\ 3$03$ DQG &DFR PRGHO $UWLILFLDO OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQHV
DUHLQWURGXFHGDVDQRYHOSURPLVLQJPRGHOZLWKDSK\VLRFKHPLFDOUHVHPEODQFHWRELRORJLFDO
PHPEUDQHV DQG D FORVH FRUUHODWLRQ ZLWK KXPDQ DEVRUSWLRQ ,Q DGGLWLRQ D VXPPDU\ RI
HSLJDOORFDWHFKLQ JDOODWH (*&* DQG WKH RWKHU WHD SRO\SKHQROV LV GHVFULEHG LQFOXGLQJ WKHLU
XQLTXHDQWLR[LGDQWSURSHUWLHVWKHLUKXPDQDEVRUSWLRQDQGZRUNRQWKHFXUUHQWHQFDSVXODWLRQ
WHFKQLTXHVIRUWKHVHDFWLYHLQJUHGLHQWV
*$6752,17(67,1$/$%62537,21$1'3(50($%,/,7<7+528*+
%,2/2*,&$/0(0%5$1(6
7KH SULPDU\ DEVRUSWLRQ VLWH IRU QXWULWLRQDO FRPSRXQGV DQG GUXJV LQ KXPDQV RFFXUV LQ WKH
JDVWURLQWHVWLQDO*,WUDFWRUPRUHVSHFLILFDOO\DWWKHLQQHUZDOOFDOOHGWKHPXFRVDZKLFK LV
OLQHGZLWKHSLWKHOLDOWLVVXH$VVKRZQLQ )LJXUH&DFHFL$XJXVWHSLWKHOLDWLVVXHLV
FRPSRVHGRIDPRQROD\HURIFROXPQDUHSLWKHOLXPWKHWRSFHOOVZLWKJREOHWFHOOVORFDWHGDW
WKH EDVH PHPEUDQH WKDW LV DWWDFKHG WR WKH FRQQHFWLYH WLVVXHV DQG EORRG FDSLOODULHV IRU
WUDQVSRUWLQJ WKH DEVRUEHG QXWULWLRQ 7KHVH HSLWKHOLD FHOOV WKXV VHUYH DV D PDMRU DEVRUSWLRQ
EDUULHU WR QXWULWLRQDO FRPSRXQGV GUXJV DQG RWKHU DFWLYH LQJUHGLHQWV 3DJOLDUD 5HLVW HW DO
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
$OOFHOOVDUHHQFORVHGE\DFHOOPHPEUDQH%ULHIO\DELRORJLFDOPHPEUDQHFRQVLVWVSULPDULO\
RISKRVSKROLSLGVPROHFXOHVWKDWKDYHDK\GURSKLOLFQHJDWLYHO\FKDUJHGSKRVSKDWHKHDGJURXS
DQGDK\GURSKRELFWDLOFRPSULVLQJORQJIDWW\DFLGK\GURFDUERQFKDLQVDVVKRZQLQ)LJXUH
D7KHVHDPSKLSDWKLFPROHFXOHVVHOIDVVHPEOHLQWRELOD\HUVLQZDWHUZLWKWKHLUK\GURSKRELF
FKDLQVLQWKHLQWHULRUDQGWKHK\GURSKLOLFHQGJURXSVLQFRQWDFWZLWKWKHZDWHU7KH\HQFORVH
OLYLQJFHOOVDVDPXOWLIXQFWLRQERXQGDU\3HWW\YRQ+HLMQHDQG5HHV
x
PDLQWDLQWKHWHUULWRULDOLQWHJULW\RIDFHOORURUJDQHOOH
x
UHJXODWHWKHPDVVWUDQVIHULQDQGRXWRIWKHFHOO
x
UHOD\WUDQVPHPEUDQHVLJQDOV
x
SHUIRUPVRPHRWKHULPSRUWDQWIXQFWLRQV
[The figures are copyright of other organisations and are not
available in this digital version of the thesis.
The original thesis is available for reference
use in the University of
Birmingham Main Library]
)LJXUH6FKHPDWLFGLDJUDPRIWKHFROXPQDUHSLWKHOLXPZLWKJREOHWFHOOVVLWWLQJRQWRSRIFRQQHFWLYHWLVVXHV
DGDSWHGIURP&DFHFL$XJXVW
7KHFXUUHQWZLGHO\DFFHSWHGIOXLGPRVDLFPRGHORIDFHOOPHPEUDQHVWUXFWXUHZDVSURSRVHG
E\6LQJHUDQG1LFKROVRQLQVHH)LJXUHE6LQJHUDQG1LFROVRQDVKHHWRI
SKRVSKROLSLGV LV RUJDQLVHG DV D GLVFRQWLQXRXV IOXLG ELOD\HU LQ ZKLFK JOREXODU SURWHLQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
PROHFXOHV DQG FKROHVWHUROV DUH HPEHGGHG 6XFK PHPEUDQHV DUH VHPLSHUPHDEOH WR VPDOO
QRQSRODU PROHFXOHV ZLWK UDSLG UDWHVRI GLIIXVLRQ ZKLOH FKDUJHG PROHFXOHV FDQQRW FURVVWKH
PHPEUDQHEDUULHULUUHVSHFWLYHRIWKHLUVL]H5DVWRJL
)LJXUH6FKHPDWLFGLDJUDPRIDSKRVSKROLSLGVPROHFXOHDDQGWKHIOXLGPRVDLFPRGHORIDSKRVSKROLSLGELOD\HUE
ZLWKSURWHLQVDQGFKROHVWHUROVHPEHGGHGLQWKHPHPEUDQH6LQJHUDQG1LFROVRQ
0ROHFXOHV FDQ EH WUDQVSRUWHG DFURVV WKH *, WUDFW EDUULHU HLWKHU E\ D GLIIXVLQJ DFURVV WKH
EDUULHUFHOOVWUDQVFHOOXODUWUDQVSRUWRUE\ESDVVLQJWKURXJKWKHLQWHUFHOOXODUWLJKWMXQFWLRQV
EHWZHHQ WKH FHOOV SDUDFHOOXODU WUDQVSRUW 0DGDUD 0RVW FRPPRQ SKDUPDFHXWLFDO
GUXJV WUDYHUVH FHOOXODU EDUULHUV E\ WUDQVFHOOXODU SDWKZD\V 3DJOLDUD 5HLVW HW DO 7UDQVFHOOXODU WUDQVSRUW FDQ EH FDWHJRULVHG LQWR SDVVLYH DQG DFWLYH WUDQVSRUW DV VKRZQ LQ
)LJXUH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
)LJXUH6FKHPDWLFGUDZLQJRIWKHPDVVWUDQVSRUWWKURXJKDELRORJLFDOPHPEUDQHSDVVLYHWUDQVSRUWLQFOXGLQJ
GLIIXVLRQDQGIDFLOLWDWHGGLIIXVLRQDQGDFWLYHWUDQVSRUW
x
3DVVLYH WUDQVSRUW LV GULYHQ E\ WKH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ JUDGLHQW RI WKH PROHFXOHV EHWZHHQ
H[WUDFHOOXODUDQGLQWUDFHOOXODUIOXLG
o 6LPSOHGLIIXVLRQWKURXJKWKHOLSLGELOD\HU
o )DFLOLWDWHGGLIIXVLRQYLDPHPEUDQHWUDQVSRUWSURWHLQV
x
$FWLYHWUDQVSRUWRFFXUVZLWKRXWRUDJDLQVWDFRQFHQWUDWLRQJUDGLHQW
o 3ULPDU\DFWLYHWUDQVSRUWUHTXLUHVFHOOHQHUJ\IURPWKHK\GURO\VLVRI$73
o 6HFRQGDU\ DFWLYH WUDQVSRUW HQHUJ\ WKDW LV VWRUHG LQ WKH HOHFWURFKHPLFDO
JUDGLHQWE\SXPSLQJRWKHUPROHFXOHVWKURXJKWKHPHPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
,W KDV EHHQ HVWLPDWHG WKDW RI RUDOO\ DGPLQLVWHUHG GUXJV DUH DEVRUEHG E\ HSLWKHOLDO
FHOOV YLD D SDVVLYH DEVRUSWLRQ URXWH 0DQGDJHUH 7KRPSVRQ HW DO 7R HYDOXDWH WKH
DEVRUSWLRQ RI VXFK GUXJV RU RWKHU DFWLYH LQJUHGLHQWV WKH RUDO GUXJ ELRDYDLODELOLW\ ) LQ
KXPDQV LVGHILQHGDVWKHUDWHDQGH[WHQWWRZKLFKDQDFWLYH LQJUHGLHQWEHFRPHVDYDLODEOHDW
WKH WDUJHW VLWHV RI DFWLRQ ,W FDQ EH H[SUHVVHG DV ܨൌ ܨ ܨ ܨ ZKHUH )D LV WKH KXPDQ
DEVRUSWLRQ IUDFWLRQ )J LV WKH IUDFWLRQ WKDW HVFDSHV PHWDEROLVP LQ WKH *, WUDFW DQG )K WKH
IUDFWLRQ WKDW HVFDSHV ILUVW SDVV KHSDWLF PHWDEROLVP &DR *LEEV HW DO ,W LV RI JUHDW
EHQHILWWRKDYHDKLJKYDOXHRI)DIRUREYLRXVUHDVRQVDQGWKHPDMRUGHWHUPLQDQWVDUHWKH*,
SHUPHDELOLW\DQGWKHVROXELOLW\RIWKHPROHFXOHV'UHVVPDQ$PLGRQHWDO
3HUPHDELOLW\ LV GHILQHG DV WKH UDWH FPV DW ZKLFK D PROHFXOH LV WUDQVSRUWHG E\ SDVVLYH
GLIIXVLRQ DQGRU DFWLYH WUDQVSRUW DFURVV D PHPEUDQH FHOO HQGRWKHOLXP RU HSLWKHOLXP
6ROXELOLW\ KHUH UHIHUV WR WKH VROXELOLW\ RI WKH PROHFXOH LQ SK\VLRORJLFDO LQWHVWLQDO IOXLGV
6WHJHPDQQ/HYHLOOHUHWDO7KHIDFWRUVWKDWDUHLPSRUWDQWIRUWKHSHUPHDELOLW\LQWKH
*,WUDFWZLOOEHUHYLHZHGLQGHWDLOLQWKHIROORZLQJVHFWLRQV
3+<6,2&+(0,&$/'(7(50,1$176,102/(&8/$5',))86,21
7KHUH DUH WZR PDLQ SRWHQWLDO PHFKDQLVPV IRU SDVVLYH GLIIXVLRQ WKH PROHFXOHV DUH
GLVWULEXWHGLQWRWKHDSLFDOFHOOPHPEUDQHDQGGLIIXVHZLWKLQWKHPHPEUDQHWRWKHEDVRODWHUDO
VLGH WKH PROHFXOHV GLIIXVH DFURVV WKH DSLFDO FHOO PHPEUDQH DQG HQWHU WKH F\WRSODVP
EHIRUHH[LWLQJWKHFHOODFURVVWKHEDVRODWHUDOPHPEUDQH 3RWWVDQG*X\3DJOLDUD5HLVW
HW DO ,Q HLWKHU FDVH WKH LQWHUDFWLRQV EHWZHHQ WKH PHPEUDQH DQG WKH GLIIXVDQWV DUH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
EDVHGRQWKHLUSURSHUWLHVZKLFKJRYHUQWKHGLIIXVLRQSURFHVV7KHFRQWUROOLQJIDFWRUVIRUWKH
SHUPHDELOLW\WKURXJKDPHPEUDQHDUHOLVWHGLQ)LJXUH
0HPEUDQHSURSHUWLHV
0ROHFXODUSURSHUWLHV
&RPSRVLWLRQ
,RQLVDWLRQVWDWH
&KDUJH
,QWHUDFWLRQV
7KLFNQHVV
/LSRSKLOLFLW\
+±ERQGLQJFDSDFLW\
6XUIDFHDUHD
0ROHFXODUZHLJKWVL]HVKDSH
FRQIRUPDWLRQ
7UDQVSRUWSURWHLQV
$TXHRXVVROXELOLW\
3RODUVXUIDFHDUHD
)LJXUH3K\VLRFKHPLFDOSURSHUWLHVRIPHPEUDQHDQGGLIIXVDQWVDQGWKHLULQWHUDFWLRQVWKDWGHWHUPLQHWKHGLIIXVLRQ
3K\VLRFKHPLFDOSURSHUWLHVRIWKHPHPEUDQH
'HVSLWH WKH DQDORJLHV RI QRFWDQRO ZLWK OLSLGV ERWK KDYH ORQJ DON\O FKDLQ DQG WKH SRODU
K\GUR[\O JURXS WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI GLIIHUHQW VROYHQW V\VWHPV WR VLPXODWH WKH DPSKLSKLOLF
FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI ELRORJLFDO PHPEUDQHV KDV EHHQ FDUULHG RXW IRU OLSRSKLOLFLW\ GHWHUPLQDWLRQ
DQG XQGHUVWDQGLQJ WKH LQWHUDFWLRQV LQYROYHG 3DJOLDUD 5HLVW HW DO $Q LQFUHDVH LQ WKH
FKDLQ OHQJWK RI WKH OLSLGV FDXVHV WKH SHUPHDELOLW\ RI D PHPEUDQH WR SURWRQV DQG LRQV WR
GHFUHDVHVKDUSO\3DXOD9RONRYHWDOLQGLFDWLQJWKDWWKHFRPSRVLWLRQRIWKHOLSLGVKDV
DKXJHLPSDFWRQGLIIXVLRQ)XUWKHUPRUHPHPEUDQHVLQWKH*,WUDFWDUHFRPSOH[DQGYDU\DW
GLIIHUHQW VLWHV )RU H[DPSOH EDVRODWHUDO PHPEUDQHV EORRG VLGH RI LQWHVWLQDO PXFRVDO FHOOV
DUHXVXDOO\WKLQQHUZLWKOHVVFKROHVWHURODQGJO\FROLSLGVWKXVWKHVHPHPEUDQHDUHPRUHIOXLG
DQG SHUPHDEOH WKDQ DSLFDO *, OXPHQ PHPEUDQHV .DUDUOL 7UDQVSRUW SURWHLQV LQ WKH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
PHPEUDQHVDOVRGLIIHUWKURXJKRXWWKH*,WUDFW)DJHUKROP7KHVPDOOLQWHVWLQDOPXFRVD
KDVYLOOLVWUXFWXUHVWKDWJUHDWO\LQFUHDVHWKHVXUIDFHDUHDIRUDEVRUSWLRQ)DJHUKROP/LQGDKOHW
DO
3K\VLRFKHPLFDOSURSHUWLHVRIWKHGLIIXVDQWV
7KHUHDUHDQXPEHURISK\VLRFKHPLFDOSURSHUWLHV RI PROHFXOHVWKDWDIIHFWWKHLUSHUPHDELOLW\
WKURXJKPHPEUDQHV
/LSRSKLOLFLW\
$ PDMRU GHWHUPLQDQW RI SHUPHDELOLW\ E\ VLPSOH GLIIXVLRQ LV WKH OLSLG VROXELOLW\ RI WKH
GLIIXVDQWV%RQWLQJDQG3RQW2UDOGUXJDEVRUSWLRQZDVGHPRQVWUDWHGWREHGHSHQGHQW
RQ WKH OLSRSKLOLFLW\ %DOLPDQH &KRQJ HW DO DQG WKH SHUPHDELOLW\ LQFUHDVHV ZLWK WKH
K\GURSKRELFLW\.DPSDQG+DPLOWRQDVSURSRVHGE\2YHUWRQ$O$ZTDWLZKLFK
LVLOOXVWUDWHGLQ)LJXUH
&'DQG&$DUHWKH EXONFRQFHQWUDWLRQV LQWKHGRQRUDQGDFFHSWRUVROXWLRQV &[DQG&[K DUH
WKHERXQGDU\FRQFHQWUDWLRQVDW [ DQGKZKHUHKLVWKHWKLFNQHVVRIWKH PHPEUDQH .LV
WKHSDUWLWLRQFRHIILFLHQWDQLQGLFDWRURIOLSRSKLOLFLW\IRUWKHGLIIXVDQWZKLFKLVGHILQHGDV
. &'&[ &[K&$
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
)LJXUH6WHDG\VWDWHGLIIXVLRQWKURXJKDKRPRJHQHRXVPHPEUDQHRIWKLFNQHVVRIKWKHGLIIXVDQWKDVGLIIHUHQW
VROXELOLW\LQWKHPHPEUDQHDQGWKHVROXWLRQ**LHELVFK
7KHGLIIXVLRQ LVGULYHQ E\WKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQJUDGLHQWEHWZHHQ &[DQG&[KZKLFKDUHHTXDO
WR&'DQG&$ZKHQ.LVDVVKRZQLQWKHGDVKOLQH
)RUGLIIXVDQWVWKDWKDYHDGLIIHUHQWVROXELOLW\LQWKHEXONVROXWLRQWRWKDWLQWKHPHPEUDQH*
*LHELVFK
& [ .& ' DW[ & [ .& $ DW[ K
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
7KHGULYLQJIRUFHIRU. LVWKHQWZLFHWKDWZKHQ. ZKLOHLWLVDIDFWRUWZROHVVIRU. ò ZKLFK PHDQV WKDWWKH GLIIXVLRQ IOX[ ZRXOG EH JUHDWHU IRUWKRVH PROHFXOHV ZLWK D JUHDWHU
YDOXHRI.7KHUHIRUHDFRQVLGHUDEOHZRUNKDVEHHQFDUULHGRXWWRFRUUHODWHWKHSHUPHDELOLW\
ZLWKWKHSDUWLWLRQFRHIILFLHQWLQGLIIHUHQWVROYHQWV\VWHPVVXFKDV QRFWDQROZDWHU3RWWVDQG
*X\/RPEDUGR6KDODHYDHWDOSURS\OHQHJO\FROGLSHODUJRQDWH /HDK\7D\ORU
HWDODQGOLSRVRPHV\VWHPV&KRLDQG5RJHUV3DXOHWWLDQG:XQGHUOLDOOHQVSDFK
7KLV ZDV HVWDEOLVKHG DV D FRQYHQWLRQ IRU SUHGLFWLQJ KXPDQ DEVRUSWLRQ EXW LW LV QRZ
UHFRJQLVHGWKDWWKHXVHRIRQO\ .RFW LVDQRYHUVLPSOLILFDWLRQRIDFRPSOH[SURFHVVDQGWKXV
FDQQRWEHHQWLUHO\VXIILFLHQW%RQWLQJDQG3RQW%DOLPDQH&KRQJHWDO
,RQLVDWLRQVWDWH
:KLOHDQLRQLVDEOHPROHFXOHPD\GLIIXVHWKURXJKDPHPEUDQHWKHUHDUHVHYHUDORWKHUIRUFHV
DFWLQJXSRQLWLQGLVWLQFWUHJLRQVLQDELRORJLFDOPHPEUDQH%RUGL&DPHWWLHWDO
x
WKHWZRKLJKO\SRODULQWHUIDFLDOUHJLRQVLQIOXHQFHGE\WKHGLIIHUHQWDTXHRXVPHGLD
x
UHODWLYHO\GLVRUGHUHGK\GURFDUERQFKDLQUHJLRQVLQWKHFHQWUHRIWKHELOD\HU
,QJHQHUDOWKHWUDQVSRUWRILRQVLVFRQVLGHUDEO\VORZHUFRPSDUHGZLWKQRQLRQLVHGPROHFXOHV
+DXVHU6WXEEVHWDO.RED\DVKL.RPDWVXHWDOVLQFHWKHXQLRQLVHGIRUPKDVD
KLJKHUOLSRSKLOLFLW\WKDQWKHLRQLVHGIRUP:DWNLQVRQ+HUNHQQHHWDO
7KHS+RIWKHPHGLXPLQIOXHQFHVGLIIXVLRQ3DJOLDUD5HLVWHWDO:RKQVODQGDQG)DOOHU
DVLWGHWHUPLQHVWKHLRQLVDWLRQVWDWHDVZHOODVWKHVROXELOLW\RIWKHGLIIXVDQW7KHPHDQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
S+LQWKHKXPDQVWRPDFKGXRGHQXPMHMXQXPDQGLOHXP LVDQG+RUWHUDQG
'UHVVPDQ
+ERQGLQJFDSDFLW\
7KH K\GURSKLOLF SDUWRI OLSLGV KDYLQJ K\GURJHQERQGLQJ DFFHSWRU JURXSV ZLOO ELQG ZLWK WKH
K\GURJHQERQGLQJGRQRUJURXSVRIGLIIXVDQWVWKXVUHWDUGLQJWKHGLIIXVLRQRIVXFKPROHFXOHV
3DJOLDUD5HLVWHWDO,WLVZHOOHVWDEOLVKHGWKDWK\GURJHQERQGLQJLVRQHRIWKHPDMRU
IDFWRUV LQIOXHQFLQJ GLIIXVLRQ WKURXJK ELRORJLFDO PHPEUDQHV <RXQJ 0LWFKHOO HW DO &RQUDGL+LOJHUVHWDO3ODWWV3HUPHDELOLW\ZDVFDOFXODWHGDQGSUHGLFWHGIURPWKH
QXPEHURISRVVLEOHK\GURJHQERQGVE\VLPSO\FRXQWLQJ
x
WKHK\GURJHQERQGDFFHSWRUDWRPVR[\JHQVDQGQLWURJHQV
x
WKHK\GURJHQERQGGRQRUDWRPVK\GURJHQVDWWDFKHGWRR[\JHQDQGQLWURJHQ
RUE\REWDLQLQJWKHYDOXHRIORJ.RFWDONQRFWDQROZDWHUPLQXVDONDQHZDWHUDVDPHDVXUHRI
WKHK\GURJHQERQGLQJFDSDFLW\(OWD\DU7VDLHWDO
0ROHFXODUVL]HZHLJKWVKDSHDQGFRQIRUPDWLRQ
,W KDV EHHQ VKRZQ WKDW ZLWK LQFUHDVLQJ PROHFXODU VL]H WKH µVLHYLQJ HIIHFW¶ RI D PHPEUDQH
EHFRPHV GRPLQDQW FRPSDUHG ZLWK WKH LQIOXHQFH RI WKH HOHFWULFDO ILHOG $GVRQ 5DXE HW DO
7KHGLIIXVLRQFRHIILFLHQWVRIPROHFXOHVFURVVLQJDPHPEUDQHKDYHEHHQUHSRUWHGWREH
KLJKO\GHSHQGHQWRQWKHLU PROHFXODUZHLJKW0::DOWHUDQG*XWNQHFKW;LDQJ DQG
$QGHUVRQ %XQJH DQG &OHHN 3URODWH PROHFXOHV WHQG WR DGKHUH WR D PHPEUDQH
UDWKHU WKDQ GLIIXVH )LVFKHU .DQV\ HW DO 0ROHFXODU IOH[LELOLW\ DQG WKH SRWHQWLDO
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
FRQIRUPDWLRQDOYDULDELOLW\ZLOODOVRLQIOXHQFHGLIIXVLRQ 3DJOLDUD5HLVWHWDOVRWKDWD
FHOO PHPEUDQH ZLOO GLVFULPLQDWH EHWZHHQ VWUDLJKW FKDLQV DQG EUDQFKHG LVRPHUV )LQNHOVWHLQ
/LSLQVNLSUHVHQWHGDVLPSOHµUXOHRIILYH¶ORZDEVRUSWLRQLVPRUHOLNHO\IRUPROHFXOHV
ZLWKORJ.RFW!0:!JPROK\GURJHQERQGDFFHSWRUV!DQGGRQRUV!/LSLQVNL
/RPEDUGRHWDO
3RODUVXUIDFHDUHD
3RODUVXUIDFHDUHD36$UHIHUVWRWKHVXUIDFHDUHDRIWKHSRODUDWRPVRIDGLIIXVDQWZKLFKLV
DQ LPSRUWDQWSUHGLFWRURIWKHELRDYDLODELOLW\DQGFRXOGEHDGRPLQDWLQJGHWHUPLQDQWIRURUDO
DEVRUSWLRQ GUXJV WKDW DUH WUDQVSRUWHG E\ WKH WUDQVFHOOXODU URXWH .HOGHU *URRWHQKXLV HW DO
)RU H[DPSOH D KLJK 36$ ZDV UHSRUWHG WR KDYH D QHJDWLYH LPSDFW RQ LQWHVWLQDO
DEVRUSWLRQ3DOP6WHQEHUJHWDO&ODUN6LQFHPRVWRIWKHPDMRUFRQWULEXWRUVWR
WKH36$DUHK\GURJHQERQGGRQRUVRUDFFHSWRUVWKHUHLVDFORVHFRUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQWKH36$
DQGWKHVXPRIWKRVHK\GURJHQERQGGRQRUVDQGDFFHSWRUV9HEHU-RKQVRQHWDO
35(',&7,212)*$6752,17(67,1$/$%62537,21
7DNLQJDFFRXQWRIDSUHFOLQLFDOVFUHHQLQJLQFOXGLQJLQYLWURLQYLYRDVVD\VIRUPXODWLRQDQG
VWDELOLW\HYDOXDWLRQDQGVDIHW\DVVHVVPHQWEFOLQLFDOWULDOVFKXPDQELRDYDLODELOLW\DQGG
UHJXODWRU\ DSSURYDO WKH WLPHWRPDUNHW IRU D SKDUPDFHXWLFDO IRUPXODWLRQ FRQWDLQLQJ D
SRWHQWLDOO\ YLDEOH QRYHO GUXJ PROHFXOH XVXDOO\ WDNHV PRUH WKDQ \HDUV .UDOMHYLF
6WDPEURRNHWDO(IIHFWLYHSUHFOLQLFDOVFUHHQLQJWHFKQLTXHVZRXOGDFFHOHUDWHWKHGUXJ
GLVFRYHU\DQGGHYHORSPHQWSURFHVVHVE\ LQFUHDVLQJWKHVXFFHVVUDWHDERYHWKHFXUUHQWPHDQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
YDOXHE\DWOHDVWDQGFRQVHTXHQWO\LWZRXOGUHVXOWLQPDMRUFRVWVDYLQJV'L0DVL
*DUUHWW:DOWRQHWDO0DQ\PHWKRGVLQFOXGLQJLQYLYRDQGLQYLWURKDYHEHHQH[SORUHG
WR SUHGLFW KXPDQ DEVRUSWLRQ DQG D FORVH FRUUHODWLRQ H[LVWV EHWZHHQ SHUPHDELOLW\ DQG WKH
IUDFWLRQRIGUXJDEVRUEHGLQWKHVDPHVSHFLHV/HQQHUQDV/HQQHUQDV&DR*LEEV
HWDO)DJHUKROP
3UHGLFWLRQRIJDVWURLQWHVWLQDODEVRUSWLRQIURPDQLPDOWHVW
5DWV KDYH EHHQ ZLGHO\ XVHG IRU LQ YLYR DVVD\V DKLJK FRUUHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ )D YDOXHV LQ UDWV
DQG KXPDQ KDV EHHQ UHSRUWHG &KLRX DQG %DUYH ZKLFK VXSSRUWV WKLV DSSURDFK IRU
SUHGLFWLQJKXPDQDEVRUSWLRQ)DJHUKROP-RKDQVVRQHWDO=DNHUL0LODQL9DOL]DGHKHW
DO 0RQNH\V DQG SLJV DUH DOVR FRPPRQO\ XVHG LQ GUXJ GHYHORSPHQW &KLRX DQG
%XHKOHU)DJHUKROP,WVKRXOGEHQRWHGWKDWWKHGLIIHUHQFHLQWKHLQWHVWLQDOUDGLXV
D IDFWRU RI WHQ LV JUHDWHU WKDQ WKH GLIIHUHQFH LQ LQWHVWLQDO SHUPHDELOLW\ D IDFWRU RI EHWZHHQKXPDQVDQGUDWVDQGJDVWULFHPSW\LQJ LVVORZHULQKXPDQVWKHUHIRUHDEVRUSWLRQ LV
H[SHFWHGWREHOHVVHIILFLHQWLQKXPDQV)DJHUKROP
3UHGLFWLRQRIJDVWURLQWHVWLQDODEVRUSWLRQIURP&DFRFHOOOLQHDQG$FHOO
OLQH
7KH &DFR FHOO PRGHO LV FRPPRQO\ XVHG IRU VFUHHQLQJHVWLPDWLRQ RI SHUPHDELOLW\ DQG
SUHGLFWLRQ RI KXPDQ )D $UWXUVVRQ 3DOP HW DO 7KHVH FHOO OLQHV H[SUHVV VHYHUDO
PRUSKRORJLFDODQGELRFKHPLFDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIVPDOOLQWHVWLQDOHQWHURF\WHVZLWKPLFURYLOOL
RQWKHDSLFDOVLGHDQGWLJKWMXQFWLRQVEHWZHHQDGMDFHQWFHOOV 3LQWR5RELQHOHRQHWDO
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&DFR FHOOV KDYH EHHQ FXOWLYDWHG RQ D ILOWHU PHPEUDQH 6DPEX\ $QJHOLV HW DO DQG
WKHLQVHUWZLWKWKHFHOOVSODFHGLQFXOWXUHZHOOVWRFDUU\RXWGLIIXVLRQPHDVXUHPHQWVDVVKRZQ
LQ )LJXUH$ KLJKFRUUHODWLRQRIWKHSHUPHDELOLW\RIWKH&DFRPHPEUDQHVZLWK KXPDQ
DEVRUSWLRQ KDV EHHQ REWDLQHG +LOJHUV &RQUDGL HW DO $UWXUVVRQ DQG .DUOVVRQ PDNLQJ LW D ZLGHO\ XVHG SUHGLFWLRQ WRRO +RZHYHUWKH &DFR FHOO OLQH ZDV IRXQG WR KDYH D
YHU\ WLJKW PRQROD\HU FRPSDUHG ZLWK WKH KXPDQ VPDOO LQWHVWLQH DV LW RULJLQDWHG IURP WKH
FRORQLFFDUFLQRPDFHOOOLQH*UDVVHW3LQWRHWDO&RQVHTXHQWO\WKHUHVXOWVIURP&DFR
DUHQRWXVHIXOIRUPROHFXOHVZLWKORZSHUPHDELOLW\,WZDVDOVRUHSRUWHGWKDW&DFRKDVD
SRRU FRUUHODWLRQ ZLWK KXPDQ DEVRUSWLRQ IRU PROHFXOHV WKDW LQYROYH DFWLYH WUDQVSRUW ,UYLQH
7DNDKDVKLHWDO3DUURWWDQG/DYH)DJHUKROP+RZHYHU$FHOOVKDYH
EHHQVKRZQWREHDPRUHHIIHFWLYHPLPLFRIWKHHSLWKHOLDOEDUULHUWRSDVVLYHGUXJWUDQVSRUWLQ
YLYR0DWVVRQ%HUJVWURPHWDO1HYHUWKHOHVVWKHFHOOVDUHVHQVLWLYHWRFKDQJHVLQWKH
FXOWXUHWHPSHUDWXUHWKDWPD\ LQWURGXFHYDULDELOLW\LQWHUPVRIWKH IRUPDWLRQDQG LQWHJULW\RI
WKHFHOOPRQROD\HUDQGWKH\ODFNWKHSURWHLQVIRUDFWLYHWUDQVSRUW7DYHOLQ7DLSDOHQVXXHWDO
)LJXUH'LIIXVLRQWKURXJK&DFRLQFXOWXUHZHOOVWKHGLIIXVDQWDUHGLVVROYHGLQWKHGRQRUFKDPEHURIWKHLQVHUW
ZLWK&DFRFHOO,WZDVWKHQSODFHGLQFXOWXUHZHOOVDVDQDFFHSWRUFKDPEHUWRFDUU\RXWGLIIXVLRQ&\SURWH[
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
3UHGLFWLRQRIJDVWURLQWHVWLQDODEVRUSWLRQIURPDUWLILFLDOPHPEUDQHDVVD\
$UWLILFLDO PHPEUDQHV DUH LQ YLWUR DVVD\V WKDW DUH QRW EDVHG RQ DQLPDOV RU FHOOV 7KH\ KDYH
EHHQ ZLGHO\ XVHG IRU SHUPHDELOLW\ LQYROYLQJ SDVVLYH GLIIXVLRQ DV WKH\ ODFN WUDQVSRUWHU
SURWHLQV7KHILUVWSDUDOOHODUWLILFLDOPHPEUDQHDVVD\3$03$ZDVSURSRVHGE\.DQV\ HWDO
.DQV\6HQQHUHWDOZKLFKLVDUDSLGDQGVLPSOHWHVWRIWKHGLIIXVLRQWKURXJKDILOWHU
PHPEUDQH FRDWHG ZLWK OHFLWKLQ GLVVROYHG LQ RUJDQLF VROYHQW DV VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH 7KH
SHUPHDELOLW\ UHVXOWV VKRZHG D FORVH FRUUHODWLRQ ZLWK KXPDQ DEVRUSWLRQ DQG LW LV D KLJK
WKURXJKSXWWHFKQLTXHWKDWHQDEOHVGUXJVFUHHQLQJWREHPXFKPRUHHIIHFWLYHDQGHFRQRPLFDO
'HYHORSPHQWV LQFOXGHWKHXVHRI DK\GURSKLOLF ILOWHUPHPEUDQH =KX-LDQJHWDOWKH
VHOHFWLRQ RI DOWHUQDWLYH SKRVSKROLSLGV DQG VROYHQWV 6XJDQR 1DEXFKL HW DO &RUWL
0DHVWUHOOLHWDODQGWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQRIDOLSLGRLOOLSLGWULOD\HULQWKHILOWHUPHPEUDQH
&KHQ0XUDZVNLHWDOWRREWDLQDEHWWHUFRUUHODWLRQRIWKHSHUPHDELOLW\IURP3$03$
DQGKXPDQDEVRUSWLRQ
)LJXUH3$03$GLIIXVLRQWKURXJKDILOWHUPHPEUDQHFRDWHGZLWKSKRVSKROLSLGV7KHGLIIXVDQWLVGLVVROYHGLQWKH
GRQRUFKDPEHUDQGWUDQVSRUWHGWKURXJKWKHPHPEUDQHLQWRWKHFXOWXUHZHOOV&\SURWH[
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
*HQHUDOO\3$03$LVDPXFKEHWWHUSUHGLFWRUIRURUDODEVRUSWLRQWKDQORJ.RFWDQGLVVLPLODU
WR&DFRIRUSDVVLYHGLIIXVLRQ+RZHYHULWLVQRWVXLWDEOHIRUDFWLYHWUDQVSRUWSUHGLFWLRQDQG
WKHVXFFHVVRIXVLQJ3$03$LQGUXJGLVFRYHU\GHSHQGVRQFDUHIXOGDWDLQWHUSUHWDWLRQDQGXVH
RIRSWLPDODVVD\FRQGLWLRQ$YGHHI%HQGHOVHWDO
$OWHUQDWLYHPHWKRGVIRUSUHGLFWLRQRIJDVWURLQWHVWLQDODEVRUSWLRQ
7KHUHDUHDQXPEHURIDOWHUQDWLYHVWRLQYLYRDVVD\VXVLQJDUWLILFLDOPHPEUDQHVIRUSUHGLFWLQJ
KXPDQDEVRUSWLRQIRUH[DPSOHWKHPHDVXUHPHQWRIWKHSHUPHDELOLW\HLWKHUWKURXJKLVRODWHG
LQWHVWLQDOWLVVXHV IURPDQLPDOVKXPDQRUE\RUJDQSHUIXVLRQ 6WHZDUW&KDQHWDO,Q
DGGLWLRQLQVLOLFRPHWKRGVKDYHEHHQXVHGWRPRGHOWKHUHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQWKHPROHFXODU
SURSHUWLHVWKHLULQWHUDFWLRQVZLWKWKHPHPEUDQHDQGSHUPHDELOLW\RUKXPDQDEVRUSWLRQ/HH
$\\DUQSDOD\DUQ HW DO 7KLV DSSURDFK KDV D JRRG SUHGLFWDELOLW\ EXW LW LV KLJKO\
GHSHQGHQWRQWKHTXDOLW\RIWKHSDUDPHWHUVXVHGLQWKHPRGHOOLQJ)DJHUKROP
,1752'8&7,212)7+(/,32620(0(0%5$1($6$1$57,),&,$/
0(0%5$1($66$<
%DQJKDP DQG FRZRUNHUV %DQJKDP +LOO HW DO LQWURGXFHG WKH XVH RI D OLSRVRPH WR
PRUH UHDOLVWLFDOO\ PLPLF WKH OLSLG ELOD\HU VWUXFWXUH RI ELRORJLFDO PHPEUDQHV IRU SDVVLYH
GLIIXVLRQ 6WHLQ $ OLSRVRPH LV D YHVLFOH ZLWK DQ RXWHU ELOD\HU RI DPSKLSKLOLF
SKRVSKROLSLGV PROHFXOHV ZLWK EXON ZDWHU LQ WKH FRUH DV VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH WKXV LW KDV D
PRUSKRORJLFDODQGSK\VLRFKHPLFDOVWUXFWXUHRIELRORJLFDOPHPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
)LJXUH6FKHPDWLFGUDZLQJRIDOLSRVRPHDSKRVSKROLSLGPROHFXOHDQGFHOOPHPEUDQH'KDWILHOG8.
:KLOH WKH RFWDQROZDWHU SDUWLWLRQ FRQVWDQW LV VWLOO ZLGHO\ XVHG LW LV LQFUHDVLQJO\ EHLQJ
UHSODFHG E\ OLSRVRPHV DV D VXUURJDWH IRU ELRORJLFDO V\VWHPV DV D PRUH HIIHFWLYH PROHFXODU
GHVFULSWRU (VFKHU 6FKZDU]HQEDFK HW DO /LSRVRPHV KDYH EHHQ LPPRELOLVHG E\
HQWUDSPHQW LQ WKH SRUHV RI JHO EHDGV DV D FKURPDWRJUDSKLF PRGHO V\VWHP WR FRUUHODWH WKH
FDSDFLW\ RI WKH GUXJ UHWHQWLRQ ZLWK KXPDQ DEVRUSWLRQ /XQGDKO DQG %HLJL +RZHYHU
OLSRVRPH PD\ EHGHSRVLWHGRQWRDVXEVWUDWHPHPEUDQH WRIRUPDWLJKWEDUULHU IRUPROHFXODU
SHUPHDWLRQ ZLWK WKH SHUPHDELOLW\ EHLQJ REWDLQHG E\ D VLPLODU SURFHGXUH WRWKDW DGRSWHG IRU
3$03$)ODWHQ%XQMHVHWDO)ODWHQ'KDQLNXODHW DO)ODWHQ6NDUHWDO
)ODWHQ/XWKPDQHWDO7KHUHVXOWVRIWKHSHUPHDELOLW\ZHUHFODLPHGWREHEHWWHUWKDQ
WKH FRQYHQWLRQDO 3$03$ DQG FRPSDUDEOH WR &DFR ZLWK D VWURQJ FRUUHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ
SHUPHDELOLW\ YDOXHV DQG KXPDQ DEVRUSWLRQ LQYROYLQJ RUDO DGPLQLVWUDWLRQ 1HYHUWKHOHVV WKH
SHUPHDELOLW\ RI WKRVH PRGHUDWHO\ DQG SRRUO\ DEVRUEHG PROHFXOHV ZHUH QRW GLVWLQJXLVKHG
FOHDUO\DQGDIHZRIWKHPROHFXOHVZHUHLQFRUUHFWO\SUHGLFWHGWRKDYHSRRUELRDYDLODELOLW\LQ
WKHKXPDQ*,WUDFW
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
7($32/<3+(12/6$1'7+((1&$368/$7,217(&+1,48(6
7HDSRO\SKHQROV
7HD LV ZLGHO\ FRQVXPHG JOREDOO\ DQG LV FRQVLGHUHGWR EH EHQHILFLDO WR KXPDQ KHDOWK GXHWR
WKH ELRORJLFDOO\ DFWLYH WHD SRO\SKHQROV 73V DOVR FDOOHG JUHHQ WHD FDWHFKLQV *7& <DQJ
&KXQJHWDO73VFRQVWLWXWHDERXWRIWKHGU\ZHLJKWRIWKHVROLGVLQEUHZHGWHD
%DOHQWLQH :LVHPDQ HW DO LQFOXGLQJ HSLJDOORFDWHFKLQJDOODWH (*&* HSLJDOORFDWHFKLQ (*& HSLFDWHFKLQJDOODWH(&* DQG HSLFDWHFKLQ (& DV VKRZQ
LQ)LJXUH(&*&LVWKHPDMRUFDWHFKLQVLQWHDZKLFKDFFRXQWVIRUPRUHWKDQRIWKH
WRWDO736%DOHQWLQH:LVHPDQHWDO
7KH VFDYHQJLQJ DFWLYLW\ RI WKH 73V LV UHODWHG WR WKH QXPEHU RI RGLK\GUR[\ DQG R
K\GUR[\NHWRJURXSV&&GRXEOHERQGVDQGWKHLUFRQFHQWUDWLRQVROXELOLW\DQGWKHVWDELOLW\
'XIUHVQHDQG)DUQZRUWK7KXV(&*DQG (*&*KDYHWKH KLJKHVWUDGLFDOVFDYHQJLQJ
DFWLYLW\ +HQQLQJ )DMDUGR/LUD HW DO VXFK DV DQWLR[LGDQW DQG DQWLWXPRU DFWLYLWLHV
+LJGRQDQG)UHL.X]XKDUD6XJDQXPDHWDO2WKHUEHQHILWVRI(*&*KDYHDOVR
EHHQVWXGLHGLQFOXGLQJWKHSURWHFWLRQRIWKHVNLQIURP89UDGLDWLRQLQGXFHGGDPDJH.DWL\DU
(OPHWV HW DO DQG LQ WKH WUHDWPHQW RI +,9 LQIHFWLRQ <DPDJXFKL +RQGD HW DO 1DQFHDQG6KHDUHU+DP]DDQG=KDQ:LOOLDPVRQ0F&RUPLFNHWDO0D
;LD HW DO 'XH WR WKHVH KHDOWK EHQHILWV RI WKH 73V WKHLU KXPDQ DEVRUSWLRQ KDV EHHQ
LQYHVWLJDWHGZKLFKVKRZHGORZELRDYDLODELOLWLHVRIWRGRVHGHSHQGHQWIRU(*&*
(*&DQG(&1DNDJDZD2NXGDHWDO3LHWWD6LPRQHWWLHWDO
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
)LJXUH&KHPLFDOVWUXFWXUHRIWKHWHDSRO\SKHQROV
6WDELOLW\RIWKH736
'XHWRWKHSUHVHQFHRIWKHSKHQROLFK\GUR[\OJURXSZKHQ73VDUHH[SRVHGWROLJKWKHDWDQG
R[LGDQWV WKH\ FDQ EH UDSLGO\ R[LGL]HG )ULHGPDQ /HYLQ HW DO 7KH VWDELOLW\ RI WHD
WKHDIODYLQV DQG FDWHFKLQV KDYH EHHQ FDUHIXOO\ H[DPLQHG LQ YDULRXV VROXWLRQV DQG GULQNV E\
&KHQ¶VJURXS&KHQ=KXHWDO6X/HXQJHWDO2YHURI*7&UHPDLQHGLQ
ZDWHUDW R&ZKLOHZDVGHVWUR\HGDW R&DIWHUEHLQJKHDWHGIRUK7KHVWDELOLW\RI
*7& LV FRQVLGHUDEO\ GHSHQGHQW RQ S+ DQG LV PXFK PRUH XQVWDEOH ZKHQ WKH S+ LV ! $FFRUGLQJWRUHVHDUFKFDUULHGRXWE\+HQQLQJHWDO+HQQLQJ1LXHWDO73VDUHPRUH
ELRDYDLODEOHZKHQGHOLYHUHGDVHQFDSVXODWHGJUHHQWHDH[WUDFWWKDQZKHQWDNHQDVDWUDGLWLRQDO
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
EHYHUDJH 7KHUHIRUH LW LV EHQHILFLDO WR HQFDSVXODWH 73V LQ RUGHU WR VWDELOLVH WKHP GXULQJ
VWRUDJHDVZHOODVWRHQKDQFHWKHKXPDQDEVRUSWLRQ
(QFDSVXODWLRQRIWKH73
(QFDSVXODWLRQLVDWHFKQLTXHE\ZKLFKRQHPDWHULDORUDPL[WXUHRIPDWHULDOVLVFRDWHGZLWKRU
HQWUDSSHG ZLWKLQ DQRWKHU PDWHULDO V\VWHP 0DGHQH -DFTXRW HW DO 7KH SXUSRVH RI
HQFDSVXODWLRQLVVXPPDULVHGDVIROORZVWRSURWHFWWKHFRUHPDWHULDOIURPWKHHQYLURQPHQW
HJKHDWOLJKWPRLVWXUHZKLOHDOORZLQJVPDOOPROHFXOHVWRGLIIXVHWKURXJKWKHFRDWLQJWKLV
KDV EHHQ ZLGHO\ DSSOLHG WRWKH SKDUPDFHXWLFDO DQG IRRG LQGXVWULHV DV D ZD\ WR LPSURYH WKH
VWDELOLW\ RI VRPH VHQVLWLYH SURGXFWV VXFK DV YLWDPLQV DQG HQ]\PHV ']LH]DN WR
DFTXLUHDFRQWUROOHGUHOHDVHRIWKHFRUHPDWHULDORUWRUHOHDVHWKHFRUHDWVSHFLILFORFDWLRQVDQG
WLPHV VXFK DV VRPH EDNLQJ DGGLWLYHV DQG WR DFKLHYH D XQLIRUP GLVSHUVLRQ RI WKH FRUH
PDWHULDO LQWR D KRVW PDWHULDO ZKHQ RQO\ YHU\ VPDOO DPRXQWV DUH UHTXLUHG 'HVDL DQG 3DUN
7KHUH DUH WZR EDVLF IRUPV RI FDSVXOHV DV VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH PLFURFDSVXOHV ZKLFK DUH
KDYH FRUHVKHOO VWUXFWXUHV DQG PLFURVSKHUHV ZKLFK DUH DOVR UHIHUUHG WR DV µPDWUL[¶
HQFDSVXODWLRQ)RUGLIIHUHQWDSSOLFDWLRQVERWKIRUPVFDQEHHPSOR\HGDQGPRUHFRPSOLFDWHG
IRUPV FDQ EH GHVLJQHG )RU IRRG DQG SKDUPDFHXWLFDO DSSOLFDWLRQV WKH FRDWLQJ PDWHULDOV DUH
UHTXLUHGWRQRWRQO\SURYLGHSURWHFWLRQWRWKHLQJUHGLHQWVRUGUXJVIURPWKHHQYLURQPHQWDQG
D FRQWUROOHG UHOHDVH LQ WKH JDVWURLQWHVWLQDO *,WUDFN EXW DOVRWR EH IRRG JUDGH VR DV QRWWR
KDYHDGYHUVHVLGHHIIHFWVWRWKHKXPDQERG\
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
7KH HQFDSVXODWLRQ RI 73V KDV UHFHLYHG FRQVLGHUDEOH DWWHQWLRQ UHFHQWO\ EHFDXVH RI WKHLU
H[FHOOHQWVFDYHQJLQJDFWLYLW\LQVSLWHRIDORZRUDOELRDYDLODELOLW\DQGDVKRUWKDOIOLIHGXHWR
WKHVWURQJV\VWHPLFFOHDUDQFH&DL$QDY\HWDO7KHLQFRUSRUDWLRQRI73VLQWRFHUWDLQ
FDUULHUV FDQ RYHUFRPH WKHLU LQVWDELOLW\ DQG SURYLGH D EHWWHU GHOLYHU\ WRWKH KXPDQ LQWHVWLQH
+X HW DO +X 3DQ HW DO LQYHVWLJDWHG WKH SRO\DQLRQLQLWLDWHG JHODWLRQ SURFHVV LQ
IDEULFDWLQJ FKLWRVDQWULSRO\SKRVSKDWH &6733 QDQRSDUWLFOHV DV FDUULHUV IRU GHOLYHULQJ 73V
ZLWK D PHDQ GLDPHWHURI QP 7KH\ LGHQWLILHG VRPH JRYHUQLQJ SDUDPHWHUV LQFOXGLQJ WKH
FRQWDFWWLPH&6 PROHFXODU PDVV &6FRQFHQWUDWLRQ&6733PDVVUDWLRLQLWLDOS+ YDOXHRI
WKH &6 VROXWLRQ DQG WKH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI WHD FDWHFKLQV ZKLFK KDYH D UDQJH RI HIIHFWV RQ
HQFDSVXODWLRQHIILFLHQF\DQGWKHLUUHOHDVHSURILOH
)LJXUH9DULRXVVWUXFWXUHVRIPLFURFDSVXOHVSURGXFHGE\GLIIHUHQWSURFHVV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
)DQJHWDO)DQJ/HHHWDOXVHGDOLSRVRPHWRHQFDSVXODWH(*&*LQRUGHUWRLQFUHDVH
DFFXPXODWLRQRIWKH(*&*LQEDVDOFHOOFDUFLQRPDVWKHVL]HVRIWKHSDUWLFOHVYDULHGIURP
WRQPZLWKWKHSURFHVVLQYROYLQJGLIIHUHQWVXUIDFWDQWVRUH[WUXVLRQ
5HFHQWO\ EHHVZD[ZDVXVHGWRSUHSDUHGUXJORDGHGPLFURVSKHUHVGXHWRLWVJRRGVWDELOLW\DW
YDU\LQJS+DQGPRLVWXUHOHYHOVZHOOHVWDEOLVKHGVDIHDSSOLFDWLRQLQKXPDQVPLQLPDOHIIHFW
RQIRRGLQWKH*,WUDFWDQGQRGRVHGXPSLQJ5DQMKD.KDQHWDO%HHVZD[LVDQDWXUDO
SURGXFW XVHG LQ WKH SKDUPDFHXWLFDO FRVPHWLFV IRRG DQG RWKHU LQGXVWULHV +RZHYHU DPRQJ
WKH UHSRUWHG FRQYHQWLRQDO PHWKRGV WKH PDQXIDFWXULQJ SURFHVV LQYROYHV WKH XVH RI D WR[LF
VROYHQW ZKLFK LV XQGHVLUDEOH LQ WHUPV RI HQYLURQPHQWDO IDFWRUV DQG KXPDQ VDIHW\ 7KXV D
PRUH SURPLVLQJ DQG VLPSOH WHFKQLTXH ZDV LQWURGXFHG WR SUHSDUH ZD[ PLFURVSKHUHV XVLQJ D
PHOWDEOH GLVSHUVHG HPXOVLILHG FRROLQJ LQGXFHG VROLGLILFDWLRQ PHWKRG *RZGD 5DYL HW DO
DVVKRZQVFKHPDWLFDOO\LQ)LJXUH
'UXJORDGHG
EHHVZD[ZDV
PHOWHG
$TXHRXVPHGLXPDWD
WHPSHUDWXUHKLJKWKDQ
PHOWLQJSRLQWRIWKHZD[
7KHHPXOVLRQ
ZDVTXHQFKHG
)LJXUH7KHSUHSDUDWLRQPHWKRGRIZD[PLFURVSKHUHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
',6&866,21
3HUPHDELOLW\ DVVD\V DUH XVXDOO\ UHTXLUHG WR EH ORZ FRVW DQG KLJK WKURXJKSXW ZLWKRXW
VDFULILFLQJDFFXUDF\7KLVDLPLVSDUWLFXODUO\WKHFDVHZKHQEHLQJDSSOLHGWRWKHRSWLPLVDWLRQ
RI WKH ELRDYDLODELOLW\ RI IRUPXODWLRQV ZKLFK LQHYLWDEO\ LQYROYHV D ODUJHU QXPEHU RI DVVD\V
$VUHYLHZHGLQWKLVFKDSWHUSHUPHDELOLW\DVVD\VYDU\LQWKHLUQDWXUHDQGWKXVOHDGWRGLIIHUHQW
SUHGLFWLRQ UHVXOWV 7DEOH VXPPDULVHV WKH DGYDQWDJHV DQG OLPLWDWLRQV RI WKH PDMRU WKUHH
ZLGHO\XVHGDVVD\V
7DEOH$GYDQWDJHVDQGOLPLWDWLRQVRIGLIIHUHQWSHUPHDELOLW\DVVD\VIRUSUHGLFWLRQRIKXPDQDEVRUSWLRQ
3HUPHDELOLW\$VVD\
$QLPDOWHVWLQJ
$GYDQWDJHV
'LUHFWLQYLYRPHWKRGV
*RRGFRUUHODWLRQZLWKKXPDQDEVRUSWLRQ
3UHGLFWERWKSDVVLYHDQGDFWLYHGLIIXVLRQ
&HOOOLQHDVVD\V
*RRGFRUUHODWLRQIRUPRGHUDWHDQGKLJKO\
DEVRUSWLYHPROHFXOHV
5DSLGVLPSOHDQGKLJKWKURXJKSXW
3$03$
$FRPSOHPHQWDU\PHWKRGWRSUHGLFWKXPDQ
*,DEVRUSWLRQ&KHQ0XUDZVNLHWDO
/LPLWDWLRQV
&UXHOLQKXPDQ
+LJKFRVWDQGPDWHULDOFRQVXPLQJ
/DERXULQWHQVLYH
9DULDWLRQRIWKHUHVXOWVIURPGLIIHUHQWFHOO
OLQHRULJLQV6DPEX\$QJHOLVHWDO
3RRUFRUUHODWLRQIRUPROHFXOHVZLWKORZ
DEVRUSWLRQ,UYLQH7DNDKDVKLHWDO
/LPLWHGDELOLW\WRSUHGLFWKXPDQDEVRUSWLRQ
$SRRUO\FKDUDFWHULVHGV\VWHPIRUDVLPSOH
FODVVLILFDWLRQRIPROHFXOHV3DJOLDUD5HLVW
HWDO
'XHWRLWVUDSLGDQGVLPSOHSURFHGXUHDUWLILFLDOPHPEUDQHDVVD\VDUHSDUWLFXODUO\XVHIXODQG
VXFFHVVIXOLQGUXJGLVFRYHU\DQGGHYHORSPHQWWRSULRULWLVHFRPSRXQGVIRULQYLYRVWXGLHVDQG
SUHGUXJVFUHHQLQJ,QRUGHUWRLPSURYHWKHSHUIRUPDQFHRISUHGLFWLQJKXPDQDEVRUSWLRQWKH
XVH RI D OLSRVRPH GHSRVLWHG RQ D PHPEUDQH ZDV LQWURGXFHG ZLWK LWV PRUSKRORJLFDO
UHVHPEODQFH WR ELRORJLFDO PHPEUDQH )ODWHQ 'KDQLNXOD HW DO +RZHYHU WKHUH ZHUH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
LPSRUWDQWIDFWRUVWKDWPLJKWUHVXOWLQHUURUVLQWKHGHWHUPLQDWLRQRIWKHSHUPHDELOLW\)LUVWO\
WKHUHZDVDQ LQLWLDOWLPH ODJEHIRUHVWHDG\VWDWHGLIIXVLRQRFFXUUHGWKDWSUREDEO\DURVH IURP
WKH WLPH LQYROYHG LQ WKH SDUWLWLRQLQJ RI WKH GLIIXVDQW LQWR WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH 7KH
FRPSOLFDWLRQ RI LGHQWLI\LQJ WKH ODJ WLPH ZDV LJQRUHG DQG WKH SHUPHDELOLW\ ZDV RQO\
FDOFXODWHG IURP WKH ODVW IRXU WLPH SRLQWV RI WKH GLIIXVLRQ ,W LV SDUWLFXODUO\ D SUREOHP IRU
FRPSRXQGVKDYLQJDKLJKSDUWLWLRQFRHIILFLHQWVLQFHLWFDQUHVXOWLQDIDOVHµ]HUR¶SHUPHDELOLW\
GXHWRDODUJHSURSRUWLRQRIWKHFRPSRXQG EHLQJ DEVRUEHGE\WKH PHPEUDQH6HFRQGO\WKH
SHUPHDWLRQ SURFHGXUH ZDV LQFUHPHQWDO )ODWHQ 'KDQLNXOD HW DO ZKLFK LQYROYHG
WUDQVIHUULQJ WKH GRQRU VROXWLRQ RI WKH GLIIXVDQW DW D JLYHQ WLPH WR D IUHVK DFFHSWRU FKDPEHU
WKDWLWZDVFRQVLGHUHGDVDVWHDG\VWDWHXQGHUVLQNFRQGLWLRQV+RZHYHUWKHLQIOXHQFHRIWKH
GHFUHDVHLQWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHGRQRUFKDPEHUDQGWKHLQFUHDVHLQWKHDFFHSWRUFKDPEHU
ZLWKWLPHZDVQRWFRQVLGHUHG
'HVSLWHWKHLVVXHVPHQWLRQHGDERYHWKHXVHRIDOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHLVDSURPLVLQJLQYLWUR
WHFKQLTXH IRUSUHGLFWLQJKXPDQ*,DEVRUSWLRQVLQFHDUHDVRQDEOHFRUUHODWLRQKDVEHHQ IRXQG
E\)ODWHQHWDO7KHILUVWSDUWRIWKHFXUUHQWZRUNZDVWRLPSURYHWKHH[SHULPHQWDODQG
GDWD DQDO\VLV SURFHGXUHV EDVHG RQ D PRUH ULJRURXV WKHRUHWLFDO WUHDWPHQWRI WKH V\VWHP 7KH
PDVV DEVRUSWLRQ ZDV LQYHVWLJDWHG DQG WKH SHUPHDELOLW\ PHDVXUHPHQWV ZHUH FDUULHG
FRQWLQXRXVO\UDWKHUWKDQ LQFUHPHQWDOO\ $ PDWKHPDWLF PRGHOZDVXVHGWRFDOFXODWHDFFXUDWH
YDOXHVRIWKHSHUPHDELOLW\DQGWKHUHVXOWVZHUHFRPSDUHGZLWKWKRVHSXEOLVKHG IURP LQYLYR
KXPDQ*,DEVRUSWLRQVWXGLHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
7KH VHFRQG SDUWRI WKH FXUUHQW ZRUN ZDVWKHQ FDUULHG RXWWR XVHWKH HVWDEOLVKHG PHWKRG IRU
SHUPHDELOLW\ PHDVXUHPHQWV DQG SK\VLRFKHPLFDO HQKDQFHPHQW RI WKH PROHFXODU GLIIXVLRQ RI
WKHPRGHOGLIIXVDQWVLQFOXGLQJDF\FORYLUDPSKRWHULFLQ%FDIIHLQHQDGROROSDUDFHWDPRODQG
WKHRSK\OOLQHE\HWKDQRODQG'062WKHPRVWSRWHQWSHUPHDWLRQHQKDQFHUV LQWKH OLWHUDWXUH
:LOOLDPV DQG %DUU\ 5HEHFFD 1RWPDQ 7KHVH PROHFXOHV ZHUH VHOHFWHG VLQFH LW
KDGEHHQHVWDEOLVKHGWKDWWKH\GLIIXVHSDVVLYHO\WKURXJKFHOOPHPEUDQHV3DJOLDUD5HLVWHWDO
=KX-LDQJHWDO
(*&*DQGWKHRWKHU73VZHUHLQYHVWLJDWHGXVLQJWKH LPSURYHG OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH PRGHO
VLQFHWKHLUSHUPHDELOLW\WKURXJKDUWLILFLDOPHPEUDQHRULPSURYLQJWKHLUKXPDQDEVRUSWLRQKDV
QRW EHHQ VWXGLHG SUHYLRXVO\ $WWHPSWV ZHUH PDGHWR HQKDQFH WKH SHUPHDELOLW\ RI (*&* E\
FKDQJLQJ WKH LRQLVDWLRQ VWDWH DV LW FRXOG LQIOXHQFH ERWK DTXHRXV VROXELOLW\ DQG SHUPHDELOLW\
/HH$\\DUQSDOD\DUQHWDO
)LQDOO\D PDMRUFKDOOHQJHRIHQFDSVXODWLRQRI(*&* LVWKDWLWKDVDFWLYHSKHQROLFK\GUR[\O
JURXSV DQG WKH\ FDQ RQO\ EH VWDELOLVHG LQ VROXWLRQ DW S+ YDOXHV RI ,W WXUQV RXW WKDW WKH
SDUWLFXODUSURSHUW\RIWKLVFRUHPDWHULDOJUHDWO\OLPLWVWKHVHOHFWLRQRIDQHGLEOHZDOOPDWHULDO
WR PHHW WKH VSHFLDO UHTXLUHPHQWV KHUH %HHVZD[ LV XVHG LQ WKH FXUUHQW ZRUN DV D SURWHFWLRQ
PDWHULDOWRSUHSDUHPLFURVSKHUHVRI(*&*DVLWLVLQHUWDQGDQDWXUDOIRRGJUDGHSURGXFW
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
6800$5<
7KHPRUSKRORJ\RIELRORJLFDOPHPEUDQHVDQGGLIIHUHQWWUDQVSRUWURXWHVRIPROHFXOHVWKURXJK
VXFKPHPEUDQHVZHUHLQWURGXFHGLQWKLVFKDSWHU7RSUHGLFWWKHKXPDQDEVRUSWLRQLQWKH*,
WUDFW D YDULHW\ RI LQ YLYR DQG LQ YLWUR DVVD\V ZHUH UHYLHZHG DQG DQ DUWLILFLDO OLSRVRPH
PHPEUDQH ZDV VHOHFWHG DV D KLJKWKURXJKSXW VFUHHQLQJ WRRO GXH WR LWV PRUSKRORJLFDO
SURSHUWLHV DQG JRRG SUHGLFWLRQ RI KXPDQ DEVRUSWLRQ 0RUHRYHU IDFWRUV WKDW LQIOXHQFH WKH
SHUPHDELOLW\ ZHUH VXPPDULVHG LQFOXGLQJ WKH SK\VLRFKHPLFDO HQKDQFHPHQW RI GLIIXVLRQ WKDW
FDQEHPDGHE\FRQVLGHULQJWKHVHGHWHUPLQDQWV
,W LV FRQFOXGHG WKDW WKH FKDOOHQJHV EDVHG RQ WKH H[LVWLQJ OLWHUDWXUH DUH WR LPSURYH WKH
H[SHULPHQWDODQGGDWDDQDO\VLVSURFHGXUHV IRUDEHWWHUSUHGLFWLRQRIWKHGLIIXVDQWV LQFOXGLQJ
73V DQG WR REWDLQ DQ HQKDQFHG GLIIXVLRQ IRU LPSURYHG KXPDQ DEVRUSWLRQ 0RUH ZRUN LV
UHTXLUHG WR HQKDQFH WKH VWDELOLW\ RI 73V VXFK DV (*&* IRU H[DPSOH WR SURYLGH SURWHFWLRQ
IURPWKHHQYLURQPHQWRUWKHGHOLYHU\IRUPXODWLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0DWHULDODQG0HWKRGV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&+$37(5 0$7(5,$/6$1'0(7+2'6
,Q WKLV FKDSWHUWKH GHWDLOHG GHVFULSWLRQ RI PDWHULDOV DQG PHWKRGV ZLOO EH GHVFULEHG LQ WKUHH
VHFWLRQVILUVWO\OLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHZDVPDGHDQGFDIIHLQHZDVFKRVHQDVDPRGHOPROHFXOH
IRU HYDOXDWLQJ WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH LQ RUGHU WR REWDLQ DQ LPSURYHG LQ YLWUR DVVD\ 7KH
IROORZLQJ VHFWLRQ LQYROYHV IXUWKHU ZRUN RQ WKH LQYHVWLJDWLRQ RI WKH PROHFXODU GLIIXVLRQ
WKURXJK WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH ZLWK ILYH PRGHO GLIIXVDQWV 7KLV VHFWLRQ DOVR LQFOXGHV WKH
SK\VLFRFKHPLFDO HQKDQFHPHQW RI GLIIXVLRQ XVLQJ WKH OLSRVRPH SURWRFRO 7KH WKLUG VHFWLRQ
FRQVLGHUVWKHXVHRIWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHWRPHDVXUHWKHGLIIXVLRQRIIRXUWHDSRO\SKHQROV
DQGWKHDWWHPSWVPDGHWRLQFUHDVHWKHH[WHQWRIGLIIXVLRQRI(*&*
02/(&8/$5',))86,217+528*+7+(/,32620(0(0%5$1(
0DWHULDOV
7KHHJJSKRVSKDWLG\OFKROLQHWKHPRGHOPROHFXOHVDQGWKHUHDFWLRQFKHPLFDOV
(JJSKRVSKDWLG\OFKROLQH/LSLG(DNLQGJLIWIURP/LSRLG*HUPDQ\ZDVFKRVHQGXHWR
LWVDSSURSULDWHSKDVHWUDQVLWLRQWHPSHUDWXUHaR&WKDWHQDEOHVWKHH[SHULPHQWWREHFDUULHG
RXW XQGHU DPELHQW FRQGLWLRQV 7KH FKHPLFDO VWUXFWXUH RI WKH HJJ SKRVSKDWLG\OFKROLQH LV
VKRZQLQ)LJXUH&DIIHLQH5HDJHQW3OXVSRZGHUZDVSXUFKDVHGIURP6LJPD8.
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0DWHULDODQG0HWKRGV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
DE
)LJXUH&KHPLFDOVWUXFWXUHRIDHJJSKRVSKDWLG\OFKROLQHZLWKDK\GURSKLOLFSKRVSKDWHKHDGDQGWKH
K\GURSKRELFWDLOFRQVWLWXWHGE\ORQJIDWW\DFLGK\GURFDUERQFKDLQVDQGEFDIIHLQH
:HOOFXOWXUHSODWHV3,0:6VZLQQH[ILOWHUKROGHUPPLQGLDPHWHUDQGȝP
SRO\FDUERQDWH PHPEUDQH ILOWHUV DQG ȝP FHOOXORVH HVWHU PHPEUDQH ILOWHUV ZHUH
SXUFKDVHGIURP0LOOLSRUH8./WGDVVKRZQ LQ)LJXUHDQG)LJXUH7KHDQG
ȝPSRO\FDUERQDWHPHPEUDQHILOWHUVZHUHXVHGWRREWDLQVSHFLILFWDUJHWVL]HVRIWKHOLSRVRPH
7KH FHOOXORVH HVWHU PHPEUDQH ILOWHU ZKLFK LV K\GURSKLOLF ZDV XVHG DV D VXSSRUWLQJ
PHPEUDQHVLQFHDK\GURSKRELFVXSSRUWLQJPHPEUDQHKDVDWHQGHQF\WRUHVLVWWKHSHUPHDWLRQ
RIK\GURSKLOLFRULRQLVHGFRPSRXQGV=KX-LDQJHWDO
)LJXUH7KHZHOOFXOWXUHSODWHIURP0LOOLSRUH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0DWHULDODQG0HWKRGV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
)LJXUH7KH6ZLQQH[ILOWHUKROGHUILWWHGZLWKGLVSRVDEOHV\ULQJH
'RQRUFKDPEHU
7KH GRQRU FKDPEHU ZDV GHVLJQHG DQG PDGH E\ /RQJVKRUH 6\VWHPV (QJLQHHULQJ 8. ,W
LQFOXGHVDSXQFKWRROVHWVRILQVHUWVDQGDQLQVHUWORFNLQJWRRO7KHSXQFKWRROZDVGHVLJQHG
IRUFXWWLQJWKHFHOOXORVHHVWHUPHPEUDQHZLWKDGLDPHWHURIPPWREHXVHGDVWKHVXEVWUDWH
PHPEUDQHDVVKRZQLQ)LJXUHDDQGE7KHLQVHUWVDUH/VWDLQOHVVFRPSULVLQJWZR
SDUWV WKH RXWHU SDUW KDV WKUHH VXSSRUWLQJ µIHHW¶ IRU VWDELOLW\ ZKLOH LPPHUVHG LQ WKH FXOWXUH
SODWHZLWKVXIILFLHQWVSDFHIRUPDVVWUDQVIHULQVROXWLRQWKHLQQHUVOHHYHLVXVHGIRUFODPSLQJ
WKHPILOWHUPHPEUDQHEHWZHHQWKHRXWHUDQGWKHLQQHUSDUWVDVVKRZQLQ)LJXUHF
DQG G 7KH H[SRVHG DUHD DW WKH ORZHU HQG RI WKH LQVHUW KDV D GLDPHWHU RI PP 7KH
ORFNLQJ WRRO VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH H ORFNV WKH WZR SDUWV RI WKH LQVHUWV WLJKWO\ ZLWK WKH
PHPEUDQH EHWZHHQ WKHP )LJXUH I 7KH LQVHUWPHPEUDQH DVVHPEOLHV ZHUH ORFDWHG LQ
FHQWULIXJHWXEHVIRUIXUWKHUSUHSDUDWLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0DWHULDODQG0HWKRGV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
)LJXUH7KHGRQRUFKDPEHUNLWFRQVLVWVRIDSXQFKWRRODDQGEDQLQVHUWPDGHRIWKHRXWHUDQGWKHLQQHUSDUW
FDQGGDORFNLQJWRROH7KHGRQRUFKDPEHUZLWKWKHPHPEUDQHORFNHGEHWZHHQWKHWZRSDUWVLVVKRZQLQI
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0DWHULDODQG0HWKRGV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
0DQXIDFWXUHWHFKQLTXHRIWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
)RUPDWLRQRIWKHOLSRVRPHVXVSHQVLRQ
(JJ SKRVSKDWLG\OFKROLQH ZDV GLVVROYHG LQ FKORURIRUP DQG PHWKDQRO YY LQ D URXQG
ERWWRPIODVNIROORZHGE\HYDSRUDWLRQDWDERXW R&WRREWDLQDWKLQILOPRIWKHOLSLG$
ZYOLSRVRPHVXVSHQVLRQZDVIRUPHGXVLQJDYRUWH[PL[HU)LVKHUEUDQG9RUWH[0L[HU=;
&ODVVLFE\K\GUDWLRQRIWKHILOPZLWKDSKRVSKDWHEXIIHUVROXWLRQDWS+DVLOOXVWUDWHGLQ
)LJXUH 7KH VXVSHQVLRQ ZDV WKHQ H[WUXGHG WKURXJK P SRO\FDUERQDWH PHPEUDQH
ILOWHUV WR REWDLQ WKH GHVLUDEOH VL]H RI OLSRVRPH DQG VRPH RI WKRVH OLSRVRPH ZDV IXUWKHU
H[WUXGHGWKURXJKPSRO\FDUERQDWHPHPEUDQHILOWHUVIRUHYHQVPDOOHUOLSRVRPH
0DQXIDFWXUHRIWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
$P/DOLTXRWRIWKHOLSRVRPHVXVSHQVLRQWKDWKDGEHHQH[WUXGHGWKURXJKDPILOWHU
ZDV DGGHG WR WKH LQVHUWPHPEUDQH DVVHPEO\ IROORZHG E\ D FHQWULIXJDWLRQ 6LJPD VZLQJ
FHQWULIXJHDWUSP IRUPLQ LQRUGHUWRLPSUHJQDWHWKHOLSRVRPH LQWRWKHSRUHVRIWKH
VXEVWUDWHPHPEUDQHDVLOOXVWUDWHGLQ)LJXUH7KLVZDVUHSHDWHGZLWKDIUHVKDOLTXRWRIWKH
OLSRVRPH EXW FHQWULIXJHG IRU PLQ LQVWHDG 7KH LQVHUWV ZHUH WKHQ WUDQVIHUUHG LQWR DQ
LQFXEDWRU DW R& IRU PLQ $ P/ DOLTXRW RI WKH OLSRVRPH VXVSHQVLRQ WKDW KDG EHHQ
H[WUXGHG WKURXJK D P ILOWHU ZDV WKHQ DGGHG WRWKH LQVHUW IROORZLQJ WKH LQFXEDWLRQ DQG
FHQWULIXJHG DW USP IRU GXUDWLRQ RI PLQ 0RVW RI WKH OLSRVRPH VXVSHQVLRQ GLG QRW
SHQHWUDWH WKH PHPEUDQH DQG WKH VXSHUQDWDQW OLTXLG ZDV UHPRYHG E\ LQYHUWLQJ WKH LQVHUWV
IROORZHGE\FHQWULIXJDWLRQ IRUPLQDWUSP7KH LQVHUWVZLWKWKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQHV
ZHUHWKHQIUHH]HWKDZHGDQGVWRUHGLQDUHIULJHUDWRUDW&IRUDWOHDVWK
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0DWHULDODQG0HWKRGV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
)LJXUH)RUPDWLRQRIWKHOLSRVRPHVXVSHQVLRQ
)LJXUH,OOXVWUDWLRQRIGHSRVLWLQJWKHOLSRVRPHRQWRWKHVXEVWUDWHPHPEUDQHFODPSHGLQWKHLQVHUWE\FHQWULIXJDO
IRUFH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0DWHULDODQG0HWKRGV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
6L]HPHDVXUHPHQWRIWKHOLSRVRPH
$0DOYHUQ=HWD6L]HU+LJK3HUIRUPDQFH3DUWLFOH 6L]HU+330DOYHUQ LQVWUXPHQWV/WG
8. ZDV XVHG IRU WKH PHDVXUHPHQW RI WKH SDUWLFOH VL]H GLVWULEXWLRQ 36' RI WKH OLSRVRPH
DIWHU H[WUXGLQJ WKURXJK WKH DQG P SRO\FDUERQDWH ILOWHUV )LJXUH 7KH
PHDVXUHPHQWWHFKQLTXHLVEDVHGRQG\QDPLFOLJKWVFDWWHULQJ'/6VXFKWKDWWKHLQWHQVLW\RI
WKHVFDWWHUHGOLJKWIOXFWXDWHVDWDUDWHWKDWLVGHSHQGHQWRQWKHVL]HRIWKHSDUWLFOHVDVVPDOOHU
SDUWLFOHV DUH µNLFNHG¶ IXUWKHU E\ WKH VROYHQW PROHFXOHV DQG PRYH PRUH UDSLGO\ 0DOYHUQ
7KHSDUWLFOHVL]H FRXOGWKHQ EHDQDO\VHG E\WKH LQWHQVLW\ IOXFWXDWLRQV LQGXFHG E\WKH
%URZQLDQ PRWLRQ RI WKH SDUWLFOHV LQ WKH VXVSHQVLRQ DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH 6WRNHV(LQVWHLQ
UHODWLRQVKLS7KH0DOYHUQ+336ZLWKD1RQ,QYDVLYH%DFN6FDWWHUWHFKQRORJ\LVFDSDEOHRI
D ZLGH VL]H UDQJH IURP WR QP DQG D KLJK VHQVLWLYLW\ IRU ERWK ORZ DQG KLJK
FRQFHQWUDWLRQVDQGFDQSHUIRUP PHDVXUHPHQWV LQWKHWHPSHUDWXUHUDQJHR&7KXV LWLV
VXLWDEOH IRU DQ LPPHGLDWH PHDVXUHPHQW RI WKH VL]H GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WKH OLSRVRPH VXVSHQVLRQ
DIWHUWKHH[WUXVLRQ
)LJXUH0DOYHUQ=HWD6L]HU+336+330DOYHUQLQVWUXPHQWV/WG8.DQGLWVRSWLFDOV\VWHP0DOYHUQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0DWHULDODQG0HWKRGV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
7R LQYHVWLJDWH WKH LQIOXHQFH RI WKH H[WUXVLRQ RQ WKH VL]H OLSRVRPH VDPSOHV ZHUH H[WUXGHG
WKURXJK WKH P SRO\FDUERQDWH ILOWHU IRU DQG WLPHV 7KRVH VXEMHFW WR UHSHDWHGH[WUXVLRQVZHUHIXUWKHUH[WUXGHGWKURXJKWKHPSRO\FDUERQDWHILOWHU IRU
WLPHV $OLTXRWV RI WKH VDPSOHV ZHUH WKHQ WDNHQ LQWR GLVSRVDEOH FXYHWWHV IRU WKH
PHDVXUHPHQW LQ WKH +336 YLVFRVLW\ F3 UHIUDFWLYH LQGH[ 7HVWHU %URFN HW DO
7KH PHDVXUHPHQWVZHUH UHSHDWHGIRUDOOWKHVDPSOHVDIWHULQWHUYDOVRIDQGKWR
H[DPLQHWKHVWDELOLW\RIWKHOLSRVRPH$OORIWKHPHDVXUHPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQWULSOLFDWHV
DQGWKHVL]HGLVWULEXWLRQZDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\DSORWRIWKHUHODWLYH LQWHQVLW\RI OLJKWVFDWWHUHG
E\SDUWLFOHVLQYDULRXVVL]HFODVVHV
&KDUDFWHULVDWLRQRIWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
0RUSKRORJ\FKDUDFWHULVDWLRQRIWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHE\FU\R6(0
6LQFH D FRQYHQWLRQDO VFDQQLQJ HOHFWURQ PLFURVFRSH 6HPHQRY PD\ FDXVH D ZHW DQG IUDJLOH
VDPSOH VKULQN GLVWRUW RU HYHQ EH GDPDJHG DQ (6(0 3KLOLSV ;/ )(* (QYLURQPHQWDO
6(0ZLWK2[IRUG,QFD('6ZLWK &U\RVWDJH3RODU3UHSFU\RVWDJHV\VWHPZDVXVHG
WRREVHUYHWKHPRUSKRORJLFDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH4XRUXP7KH
FU\RPHWKRGHQDEOHVYXOQHUDEOH ELRORJLFDO VWUXFWXUHVWREHZHOOSUHVHUYHGDQGDFOHDQFU\R
IUDFWXUHGFURVVVHFWLRQZLWKRXWPDOIRUPDWLRQPD\EHREWDLQHG
7KH K\GUDWHG OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH ZDV ILUVWO\ PRXQWHG RQ D IODW GLVF KROGHU ZKLFK LV LWVHOI
PRXQWHGRQWRDIUHH]LQJYDFXXPWUDQVIHUURG,WZDVWKHQSOXQJHIUR]HQLQOLTXLGQLWURJHQWR
& DQG WUDQVIHUUHG XQGHU YDFXXP RQWR WKH FRRO VWDJH RI WKH FU\R6(0 SUHSDUDWLRQ
FKDPEHURIWKH3RODU3UHS7KHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHZDVWKHQIUDFWXUHGDQGFRDWHGZLWK
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0DWHULDODQG0HWKRGV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
PHWDO E\ VSXWWHULQJ )LQDOO\ WKH VSHFLPHQ ZDV WUDQVIHUUHG XQGHU YDFXXP LQWR WKH (6(0
FKDPEHU ZKHUH LW ZDV PDLQWDLQHG DW & DQG WKH FURVVVHFWLRQ RI WKH OLSRVRPH
PHPEUDQHZDVH[DPLQHGDWN9
/LSLGDVVD\RIWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
7KH TXDQWLWDWLYH GHWHUPLQDWLRQ RI WKH SKRVSKROLSLG LQ WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH FRXOG EH
DFKLHYHG E\ OLSLG DVVD\ /DE$VVD\ 3KRVSKROLSLG :DNR &KHPLFDOV *PE+ *HUPDQ\ ,W LV
EDVHG RQ WKH IROORZLQJ FKHPLFDO UHDFWLRQV WKH SKRVSKROLSLG LV K\GURO\VHG WR FKROLQH E\
SKRVSKROLSDVH'DQGWKHQWKHVRIRUPHGFKROLQHLVR[LGLVHGE\FKROLQHR[LGDVHLQDUHDFWLRQ
WKDWSURGXFHVK\GURJHQSHUR[LGHZKLFKFDXVHV'$26DQG$PLQRDQWLS\ULQHWRXQGHUJRD
TXDQWLWDWLYHR[LGDWLYHFRQGHQVDWLRQFDWDO\VHGE\SHUR[LGLVH32'SURGXFLQJDEOXHSLJPHQW
DVVKRZQLQ)LJXUH7KHDPRXQWRISKRVSKROLSLGVLQWKHVDPSOHFRXOGWKXVEHGHWHUPLQHG
E\PHDVXULQJWKHDEVRUEDQFHRIWKHEOXHFRORXULQD89VSHFWURSKRWRPHWHU
3KRVSKROLSDVH'
(JJSKRVSKROLSLGV+2&KROLQH3KRVSKDWLGLF$FLG
&KROLQH2[LGDVH
&KROLQH2%HWDLQH+2
32'
$PRQRDQWLS\ULQH'$26+2>%OXH3LJPHQW@2++2
)LJXUH7KHFKHPLFDOUHDFWLRQRIWKHFRORXUUHDJHQWZLWKHJJSKRVSKROLSLGVIRU89PHDVXUHPHQW
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0DWHULDODQG0HWKRGV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
$FDOLEUDWLRQZDVILUVWFDUULHGRXWRIWKHOLSRVRPHWKHHJJSKRVSKROLSLGOLSRVRPHVXVSHQVLRQ
ZDVSUHSDUHGLQWKHSKRVSKDWHEXIIHUVROXWLRQS+DWDQGPJP/LQDFXOWXUH
SODWH3,0:60LOOLSRUH/WG8.DQGZHOO PL[HGZLWKWKHFRORXUUHDJHQWZKLFKZDV
SUHSDUHGE\GLVVROYLQJYLDORI&KURPRJHQVXEVWUDWHWRP/RIEXIIHUPPRO/*RRG¶V
EXIIHU S+ SURYLGHG E\ :DNR /DE$VVD\ NLW 7KH\ ZHUH WKHQ SODFHG LQ DQ RYHQ
0,12*HQODE/WG8.DW R&IRUPLQ7KHVROXWLRQZDVWKHQPHDVXUHGE\WKH89
VSHFWURSKRWRPHWHU&(6SHFWURSKRWRPHWHU&HFLOLQVWUXPHQW(QJODQGDWDZDYHOHQJWK
RI QP $OO WKH PHDVXUHPHQWV ZHUH SHUIRUPHG LQ WULSOLFDWHV DQG DQ DYHUDJH DEVRUEDQFH
ZDVSORWWHGDVDIXQFWLRQRIWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUEDUV
7R SHUIRUP WKH OLSLG DVVD\ RQ WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH D IUHVKO\ SUHSDUHG OLSRVRPH
PHPEUDQHZDVLQFXEDWHGLQP/RIPJP/FKRODWHVROXWLRQ%LR5HDJHQW6LJPD$OGULFK
8.XQGHUEDWKVRQLFDWLRQ8OWUDVRQLFEDWK)LVKHUEUDQG)LVKHU6FLHQWLILF8.IRUPLQWR
VROXELOLVH WKH SKRVSKROLSLGV LQ WKH VXEVWUDWH PHPEUDQH 7KH VROXWLRQ ZDV WKHQ ZHOO PL[HG
ZLWK WKH FRORXU UHDJHQW DQG LQFXEDWHG DW R& DV GHVFULEHG SUHYLRXVO\ IROORZHG E\
PHDVXUHPHQWLQWKH89VSHFWURSKRWRPHWHU7KHPHDVXUHPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQWULSOLFDWHV
WRREWDLQWKHDPRXQWRISKRVSKROLSLGPROHFXOHVLQHDFKOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
89VSHFWUDRIWKHPRGHOGLIIXVDQW
$89VSHFWURSKRWRPHWHU&(6SHFWURSKRWRPHWHU&HFLOLQVWUXPHQW(QJODQGZDVXVHG
LQWKLVZRUNWRREWDLQWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRIWKHVDPSOHVROXWLRQV89VSHFWURSKRWRPHWHUVDUH
ZLGHO\ XVHG IRU PHDVXULQJ WKH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI D OLTXLG VDPSOH WKH\ DUH EDVHG RQ WKH
SULQFLSOHWKDWZKHQDPROHFXOHLVH[SRVHGWR89ZLWKDQHQHUJ\WKDWPDWFKHVWKHHOHFWURQLF
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0DWHULDODQG0HWKRGV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
WUDQVLWLRQZLWKLQWKHPROHFXOHWKHHQHUJ\ZLOOEHDEVRUEHGWRFDXVHWKHHOHFWURQWRMXPSWRD
KLJKHUHQHUJ\RUELWZKLFKW\SLFDOO\RFFXUVLQWKHUHJLRQRIXOWUDYLROHWVSHFWUXPQP
0HKWD6WUDXEH$LFKHUHWDO
%DVLFDOO\ D 89 VSHFWURSKRWRPHWHU FRQVLVWVRI DQ HQHUJ\ VRXUFH D VDPSOH FHOO D GLVSHUVLQJ
GHYLFH SULVP RU JUDWLQJ DQG D GHWHFWRU DUUDQJHG DV VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH 7KH GHWHFWRU
UHFRUGV WKH ZDYHOHQJWKV DW ZKLFK DEVRUSWLRQ RFFXUV DQG WKH GHJUHH RI DEVRUSWLRQ DW HDFK
ZDYHOHQJWKDVVKRZQLQ)LJXUH
7KHDEVRUEDQFHRIDVDPSOHLVSURSRUWLRQDOWRWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQDQGSDWKOHQJWKJLYHQE\
$ ORJ,, İF/
ZKHUH $ LV WKH PHDVXUHG DEVRUEDQFH , LV WKH LQWHQVLW\ RI WKH LQFLGHQW OLJKW DW D JLYHQ
ZDYHOHQJWK , LV WKH WUDQVPLWWHG LQWHQVLW\ / LV WKH SDWKOHQJWK WKURXJK WKH VDPSOH F LV WKH
FRQFHQWUDWLRQRIWKHDEVRUELQJVSHFLHVDQGİ LVDFRQVWDQWIRUDVSHFLHVGHILQHGDVWKHPRODU
DEVRUSWLYLW\RUH[WLQFWLRQFRHIILFLHQW0HKWD$FDOLEUDWLRQRIWKHVWDQGDUGVROXWLRQRI
WKHPRGHOGLIIXVDQWZDVWKHQFDUULHGRXWDQGWKHDEVRUEDQFHDWȜPD[ZDVSORWWHGDVIXQFWLRQRI
WKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQWRREWDLQWKHDEVRUSWLYLW\İ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0DWHULDODQG0HWKRGV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
)LJXUH$&(896SHFWURSKRWRPHWHUDQGLWVRSWLFDOV\VWHP)LHOG6WHUQKHOOHWDO
)LJXUH$EVRUEDQFHFXUYHRI89VSHFWURSKRWRPHWHU)LHOG6WHUQKHOOHWDO
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0DWHULDODQG0HWKRGV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
3HUPHDELOLW\PHDVXUHPHQWV
)RUWKHLQFUHPHQWDOGLIIXVLRQPHWKRGHDFKGLIIXVDQWRIDJLYHQTXDQWLW\ ZDVGLVVROYHG LQD
SKRVSKDWH EXIIHU VROXWLRQ 3%6 DW S+ DQG P/ RI WKH VROXWLRQ ZDV DGGHG LQWR DQ
LQVHUWDVWKHGRQRUFKDPEHU,QDGGLWLRQP/RIWKH3%6VROXWLRQZDVDGGHGLQWRWKHZHOOV
RI FXOWXUH SODWHV WKDW DFWHG DV WKH DFFHSWRU FKDPEHUV 7KH GRQRU FKDPEHU ZDV WKHQ SODFHG
FDUHIXOO\LQWRDZHOOWRHQVXUHWKDWEXEEOHVZHUHDEVHQW)LJXUHDQGLQVHUWHGLQWRIUHVK
DFFHSWRUFKDPEHUVDWDKRUKLQWHUYDOV7KLVPHWKRGZDVPRGLILHGLQWKHFXUUHQWZRUN
WR DYRLG D VPDOO 89 DEVRUSWLRQ VHH EHORZ IRU VRPH GLIIXVDQW DV ZHOO DV WR HVWDEOLVK D
FRQWLQXRXVGLIIXVLRQSURILOHZLWKLQK7KHFRQWLQXRXVGLIIXVLRQPHWKRGLQYROYHGILYHGRQRU
FKDPEHUV SUHWUHDWHG RU XQWUHDWHG WKDW ZHUH SODFHG DW WKH VDPH WLPH LQ ILYH DFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUV2QHGRQRUFKDPEHUZDVUHPRYHGDWKRXUO\LQWHUYDOVRYHUDSHULRGRIK)RUERWK
PHWKRGV WKH FRQFHQWUDWLRQV LQ WKH DFFHSWRU FKDPEHUV ZHUH PHDVXUHG XVLQJ D 89
VSHFWURSKRWRPHWHU &( 6SHFWURSKRWRPHWHU &HFLO LQVWUXPHQW 8. $OO H[SHULPHQWV
ZHUH SHUIRUPHG LQ WULSOLFDWHV DQG WKH PHDQ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ ZDV SORWWHG DV D IXQFWLRQ RI WLPH
ZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUV
,QIOXHQFHRISUHWUHDWPHQWDQGDJLWDWLRQRQWKHSHUPHDELOLW\RIFDIIHLQH
7KHLQVHUWVZLWKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHZHUHLPPHUVHGLQP/RIWKHGRQRUVROXWLRQIRU
KWKHQUHPRYHGIURPWKHVROXWLRQDQGFDUHIXOO\GULHGZLWKDWLVVXHWRH[WUDFWWKHDQ\WUDFH
RI YLVLEOH OLTXLG %RWK WKH LQFUHPHQWDO DQG FRQWLQXRXV GLIIXVLRQ RI D PJP/ FDIIHLQH
VROXWLRQ LQ WKH GRQRU FKDPEHU ZHUH PHDVXUHG ZLWK WKHVH SUHWUHDWHG PHPEUDQHV DQG WKH
UHVXOWVZHUHFRPSDUHGZLWKWKRVHWKDWZHUHXQWUHDWHG
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0DWHULDODQG0HWKRGV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
/LSRVRPHHPEHGGHG
)LJXUH6FKHPDWLFGLDJUDPRIWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHSHUPHDELOLW\DVVD\PRGHOPROHFXOHVZHUHGLVVROYHGLQWKH
3%6LQWKHLQVHUWDVWKHGRQRUFKDPEHU7KHPROHFXOHVGLIIXVHGWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHLQWRWKHZHOOVRIWKH
FXOWXUHSODWHDVWKHDFFHSWRUFKDPEHUWKDWFRQWDLQHG3%6VROXWLRQ
7KH HIIHFW RI DJLWDWLRQ ZDV H[DPLQHG XVLQJ WZR VXFK SUHWUHDWHG PHPEUDQHV IRU D PJP/FDIIHLQHVROXWLRQLQWKHGRQRUFKDPEHU7KHUHVXOWVIRUDQXQDJLWDWHGFRQGLWLRQZHUH
FRPSDUHGZLWKWKRVHWKDWZHUHDJLWDWHGXVLQJDVKDNLQJ LQFXEDWRU/1HZ%UXQVZLFN
*FRROHGRUELWDOLQFXEDWRUVHWDWUSP
,QIOXHQFH RI SUHWUHDWPHQW WLPH DQG GRQRU FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RQ WKH SHUPHDELOLW\ RI
FDIIHLQH
7KHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHVZHUHSUHWUHDWHGZLWKDPJP/GRQRUVROXWLRQRIFDIIHLQHIRU
DQG K UHVSHFWLYHO\ 7KH PHPEUDQHV ZHUH DOVR SUHWUHDWHG IRU K ZLWK GRQRU
VROXWLRQV RI FDIIHLQH ZLWK FRQFHQWUDWLRQV RI DQG PJP/ 7KH
GLIIXVLRQZDVWKHQFDUULHGRXWLQDFRQWLQXRXVZD\DQGUHSHDWHGIRUWKUHHWLPHV BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0DWHULDODQG0HWKRGV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
0DVVDEVRUSWLRQPHDVXUHPHQWV
,W ZDV QRW SRVVLEOH WR PHDVXUH DFFXUDWHO\ WKH PDVV DEVRUSWLRQ RI WKH FDIIHLQH XVLQJ RQO\ D
VLQJOH PHPEUDQH GXH WR WKH YHU\ VPDOO DPRXQW RI DEVRUSWLRQ 7KHUHIRUH WKUHH OLSRVRPH
PHPEUDQHVZHUHLPPHUVHGLQP/RIPJP/DTXHRXVFDIIHLQHVROXWLRQ$OLTXRWVRI
/ ZHUH WDNHQ IRU 89 DEVRUSWLRQ PHDVXUHPHQWV DW LQWHUYDOV RI PLQ WKHVH
DOLTXRWV ZHUH QHJOLJLEO\ VPDOO FRPSDUHG ZLWK WKH WRWDO YROXPH DQG FRQVHTXHQWO\
ZRXOGQRWVLJQLILFDQWO\DIIHFWWKHUHVXOWV
$GHVRUSWLRQVWXG\ZDVDOVRFDUULHGRXWDIWHUWKHVDWXUDWLRQRIWKHWKUHHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHV
LQ WKH FDIIHLQH VROXWLRQ E\ LPPHUVLQJ HDFK LQ P/ RI 3%6 VROXWLRQ $OLTXRWV RI /
ZHUHVDPSOHGDWDQGPLQIRUPHDVXULQJWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRI
FDIIHLQHGHVRUEHG
0DWKHPDWLFPRGHOOLQJRIWKHGLIIXVLRQWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
$ PDWKHPDWLF PRGHO RI WKH GLIIXVLRQ WKURXJK D PHPEUDQH KDV EHHQ GHULYHG IURP )LFN¶V
GLIIXVLRQ ODZ &UDQN IRU ZKLFK WKH UDWH RI GLIIXVLRQ GHSHQGV RQ WKH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ
JUDGLHQWEHWZHHQWKHGRQRUDQGWKHDFFHSWRUFKDPEHU
GQ
GW
.'
$ &' & $ K
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0DWHULDODQG0HWKRGV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
ZKHUHQLVWKHQXPEHURIPROHVWLVWKHWLPH'LVWKHFRHIILFLHQWRIGLIIXVLRQ&'DQG&$DUH
WKHEXONFRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQWKHGRQRUFKDPEHUDQGDFFHSWRUFKDPEHUVKLVWKHWKLFNQHVVRIWKH
PHPEUDQH$LVWKHFURVVVHFWLRQDODUHDRIWKHPHPEUDQHDQG.LVWKHSDUWLWLRQFRHIILFLHQWIRU
WKHGLIIXVDQWZKLFKLVJLYHQE\ &+ &' ZKHUH&+LVWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRIWKHGLIIXVDQWLQWKH
K\GURSKRELFUHJLRQVRIWKHOLSRVRPH
)RU FHOO PHPEUDQHV RU DUWLILFLDO PHPEUDQH V\VWHPV WKH WKLFNQHVV K RI WKH PHPEUDQH LV
XVXDOO\ GLIILFXOW WR REWDLQ MXVW DV LQ PDQ\ FDVHV WKH SDUWLWLRQ FRHIILFLHQW . FDQQRW EH
GHWHUPLQHGGLUHFWO\7KHUHIRUH(TXDWLRQPD\EHZULWWHQDV
GQ
GW
3$ &' &$ ZKHUHWKHSDUDPHWHU 3
. ' K LVFDOOHGWKHSHUPHDELOLW\FRHIILFLHQWRIWKHPHPEUDQH
)LJXUH,OOXVWUDWLRQRIWKHGLIIXVLRQSURFHVV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0DWHULDODQG0HWKRGV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
)RU WKH FRQWLQXRXV SURFHVV &' DQG &$ DUH IXQFWLRQV RI WLPH W DQG ZHUH FRQVLGHUHG LQ WKH
PDVVEDODQFHDVLOOXVWUDWHGLQ)LJXUH
&9'
& '9' & $9$ ZKHUH&LVWKHLQLWLDOFRQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHGRQRUFKDPEHU9'DQG9$DUHWKHYROXPHVRIWKH
GRQRUFKDPEHUDQGWKHDFFHSWRUFKDPEHU7KHIORZUDWHRIGLIIXVDQWPROHFXOHVDWWLPHWLVWKH
PDVVGHFUHDVHLQWKHGRQRUFKDPEHUZLWKLQGWWKXV
9'
G&'
GW
3$&' & $ :LWKWKHLQLWLDOERXQGDU\FRQGLWLRQVW &' &DQG&$ (TXDWLRQKDVWKHIROORZLQJ
VROXWLRQ
& $
&
9'
9' 9 $
°
ª
§ · º ½°
¸¸ W » ¾ ® H[S « 3DSS $ ¨¨
°̄
© 9' 9 $ ¹ ¼ °¿
¬
7KH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ LQ WKH DFFHSWRU FKDPEHU &$ DV D IXQFWLRQ RI WLPH ZDV WKHQ ILWWHGWRWKH
DERYHH[SUHVVLRQWR\LHOGWKHSHUPHDELOLW\3
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0DWHULDODQG0HWKRGV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
,QWKHPRGHOHPSOR\HGE\)ODWHQ¶V)ODWHQ%XQMHVHWDO)ODWHQ'KDQLNXODHWDO
)ODWHQ6NDUHWDO)ODWHQ/XWKPDQHWDO&'ZDVDVVXPHGWREHFRQVWDQWDQG&$
ZDVDVVXPHGWREHQHJOLJLEO\VPDOO2QO\WKHVWHDG\VWDWHIORZUDWHDIWHUKZDVFRQVLGHUHG
WRFDOFXODWHWKHDSSDUHQWSHUPHDELOLW\
3DSS
§ ¨¨
© $&'
· G Q'
¸¸
¹ GW
§ ¨¨
© $&'
· G Q$
¸¸
¹ GW
7KDW LV WKH SHUPHDELOLW\ ZDV REWDLQHG E\ SORWWLQJWKH DFFXPXODWLYH DPRXQW LQ WKH DFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUV DV D IXQFWLRQ RI WLPH DQG WKH VWHDG\ VWDWH YDOXH ZKLFK FRUUHVSRQGHG WR WKRVH
PHDVXUHGLQWKHUDQJHKZDVVXEVWLWXWHGLQ(TXDWLRQ
7KHLPSDFWRIWKHGHVRUSWLRQRQWKHSHUPHDELOLW\
,Q WKH FDVH RI WKH FRQWLQXRXV PHWKRG ZKHQ WKH PHPEUDQH KDV EHHQ SUHWUHDWHG E\
HTXLOLEUDWLRQ ZLWK WKH GLIIXVDQW VROXWLRQ WKH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ LQ WKH PHPEUDQH &P PD\ EH
JUHDWHU WKDQ LWV VWHDG\ VWDWH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ &PV DV LOOXVWUDWHG LQ )LJXUH UHVXOWLQJ LQ D
JUHDWHUFRQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRUFKDPEHU & c$ FRPSDUHGZLWK&$$VVXPLQJWKHDPRXQW
RIWKHH[FHVVGLIIXVDQWLQWKHPHPEUDQHLVKDOIRIWKHWRWDODEVRUSWLRQDVVKRZQLQWKHVKDGHG
DUHDRI)LJXUHDPRGHOEDVHGRQWKHUHOHDVHGDWDLVXVHGZKHUHUHOHDVHLVGHILQHGDVWKH
WRWDODPRXQWGHVRUEHGIURPWKHPHPEUDQHDQGWKDWGLIIXVHGLQWRWKHDFFHSWRUFKDPEHU
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0DWHULDODQG0HWKRGV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
9$
G& $
GW
3$& ' & $ G0 W
GW
ZKHUH 0W LV WKH PDVV UHOHDVH DW WLPH W ZKLFK PD\ EH REWDLQHG IURP WKH PRGHOOLQJ WKH
GHVRUSWLRQDFFRUGLQJWRWKHIROORZLQJHPSLULFDOH[SUHVVLRQ$PLQDEKDYLDQG+DUODSXU
0W
0f
$W %
ZKHUH 0f LV WKH PDVV UHOHDVH DW WLPH W
f $ DQG % DUH FRQVWDQWV WKDW FDQ EH GHWHUPLQHG
IURP WKHGHVRUSWLRQGDWD
(TXDWLRQ ZDV LQWHJUDWHG ZLWK WKH LQLWLDO FRQGLWLRQ &' & DQG &$ DW W XVLQJ
0$7/$%VHH$SSHQGL[$WRGHWHUPLQHWKHSHUPHDELOLW\RQWKHEDVLVRIWKHEHVWILWWR & $ W &'
0HPEUDQH
&P
&$¶
&PV
&$
)LJXUH7KHDVVXPSWLRQRIDOLQHDUFRQFHQWUDWLRQJUDGLHQWLQWKHPHPEUDQHDIWHUSUHWUHDWPHQW
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0DWHULDODQG0HWKRGV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
3+<6,&2&+(0,&$/(1+$1&(0(172)7+(02/(&8/$5',))86,21
7+528*+7+(/,32620(0(0%5$1(
0DWHULDOV
3DUDFHWDPRO DFHWDPLQRSKHQ %LR;WUD WKHRSK\OOLQH DQK\GURXV SRZGHU
QDGRORO DQDO\WLFDO VWDQGDUG DF\FORYLU +3/& SRZGHU DPSKRWHULFLQ % SRZGHU
%LR;WUD HWKDQRO SURRI DQG GLPHWK\O VXOIR[LGH '062 %LR5HDJHQW DV
VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH ZHUH DOO SXUFKDVHG IURP 6LJPD 8. 7KH FRQFHQWUDWLRQV RI WKH
PROHFXOHVLQWKHZRUNZHUHQHDUO\WKHVDWXUDWLRQFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRWKDWWKH\FRXOGEHGHWHFWHG
E\ 89 DV OLVWHG LQ 7DEOH 7KH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQHV DQG FXOWXUH SODWHV ZHUH IURP WKH
SUHSDUDWLRQ DV GHVFULEHG EHIRUH 0H&1 SKRVSKRULF DFLG DQG +2 XVHG IRU +3/& DQDO\VLV
ZHUH DOO RI DQDO\WLFDO UHDJHQW JUDGH DQG ZHUH NLQGO\ SURYLGHG E\ WKH 6FKRRO RI &KHPLVWU\
8QLYHUVLW\RI%LUPLQJKDP8.
3DUDFHWDPRO7KHRSK\OOLQH
$F\FORYLU1DGRORO
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0DWHULDODQG0HWKRGV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
$PSKRWHULFLQ%
(WKDQRO
'062
)LJXUH&KHPLFDOVWUXFWXUHVRIWKHPROHFXOHVLQWKLVZRUNZLWKWKHPROHFXOHZHLJKWLQSDUHQWKHVHV
7DEOH7KHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIWKHPRGHOGLIIXVDQWVLQWKHGRQRUFKDPEHU
3DUDFHWDPRO
7KHRSK\OOLQH
&DIIHLQH
$F\FORYLU
1DGRORO
$PSKRWHULFLQ%
PJP/
PJP/
PJP/
PJP/
PJP/
PJP/
89FDOLEUDWLRQRIWKHPRGHOPROHFXOHV
$ FDOLEUDWLRQ RI WKH VWDQGDUG VROXWLRQ RI WKH ILYH PRGHO PROHFXOHV ZDV FDUULHG RXW DQG WKH
DEVRUEDQFH DW ȜPD[ ZDV SORWWHG DJDLQVW WKH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ WR REWDLQ WKH DEVRUSWLYLW\ İ $OO
PHDVXUHPHQWV ZHUH SHUIRUPHG LQ WULSOLFDWHV DQG WKH DYHUDJH 89 DEVRUEDQFH ZDV VKRZQ LQ
WKHILJXUHVZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0DWHULDODQG0HWKRGV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
+3/&DQDO\VLV
6LQFH WKH WZR ȜPD[ RI WKH 89 VSHFWUD RI SDUDFHWDPRO DQG FDIIHLQH DUH FORVH QP IRU
SDUDFHWDPRODQGQPIRUFDIIHLQHWKH\ZRXOGLQWHUIHUHZLWKHDFKRWKHU&RQVHTXHQWO\D
KLJKSHUIRUPDQFH FKURPDWRJUDSK\ +3/& ZDV XVHG +3/& LV D WHFKQLTXH WKDW VHSDUDWHV D
PL[WXUH RI FRPSRXQGV GXHWRWKHLU GLIIHUHQW DIILQLW\ WR D VWDWLRQDU\ DQG D PRELOH SKDVH $V
VKRZQLQ )LJXUHWKHVROYHQWDVWKHPRELOHSKDVHLVSXPSHGXQGHUDKLJKSUHVVXUHLQWR
WKHVWDWLRQDU\SKDVHD+3/&FROXPQ:KHQVROXWLRQVRIWKHFRPSRXQGVDUHLQMHFWHGLQWRWKH
V\VWHPWKHFRPSRQHQWZLWKDVWURQJHULQWHUDFWLRQZLWKWKHVWDWLRQDU\SKDVHZRXOGWKXVOHDG
WR D ORQJHU UHWHQWLRQ WLPH 7KH FRPSRXQGV FRXOG WKXV EH VHSDUDWHG DQG DQDO\VHG E\ D 89
VSHFWURSKRWRPHWHU
7KH DQDO\VLV RI D PL[WXUH RI SDUDFHWDPRO DQG FDIIHLQH ZDV SHUIRUPHG E\ +3/& 6KLPDG]X
/& V\VWHP ZLWK D 89 GHWHFWRU 63'0$ LQ WKH 6FKRRO RI &KHPLVWU\ 8QLYHUVLW\ RI
%LUPLQJKDP8.$6XSHOFR$VFHQWLV([SUHVV&îPPFROXPQZDVXVHGDQGWKH
PRELOHSKDVHFRQVLVWHGRI0H&1 DQGRI+2DQGZDVDGMXVWHGWRS+XVLQJ
SKRVSKRULFDFLGDWDIORZUDWHRIP/PLQIRUDQRSWLPLVHGVHSDUDWLRQ$FDOLEUDWLRQRIWKH
SDUDFHWDPRO ZLWK FDIIHLQH ZDV FDUULHG RXW EHIRUH WKH +3/& DQDO\VLV RI WKH GLIIXVDQW LQ WKH
GRQRUFKDPEHU
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0DWHULDODQG0HWKRGV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
)LJXUH$VFKHPDWLFGUDZLQJRID+3/&V\VWHP
'LIIXVLRQRIWKHPRGHOGLIIXVDQWVWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
'LIIXVLRQRIWKHPRGHOGLIIXVDQWV
7KHSHUPHDELOLWLHVRIWKHILYHPRGHOGLIIXVDQWVZHUHPHDVXUHGXVLQJWKHRSWLPLVHGSURFHGXUH
GHYHORSHG IRU FDIIHLQH EDVHG RQ D FRQWLQXRXV GLIIXVLRQ PHWKRG ZLWK D SUHWUHDWPHQW RI WKH
OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH XVLQJ WKH VDPH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ DV WKDW IRU WKH GRQRU VROXWLRQ 7KH
GLIIXVLRQ H[SHULPHQW ZDV SHUIRUPHG LQ WULSOLFDWHV DQG WKH DYHUDJH FRQFHQWUDWLRQV LQ WKH
DFFHSWRUFKDPEHUVZHUHSORWWHGDJDLQVWWLPHZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUV7KHGDWD ZHUHWKHQ ILWWHG
ZLWKWKHFRQWLQXRXVGLIIXVLRQPRGHOZLWKFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOV
3K\VLRFKHPLFDOHQKDQFHPHQWRIWKHPROHFXODUGLIIXVLRQ
'LOXWHG HWKDQRO DQG '062 ZHUH FKRVHQ DV D GLIIXVLRQ HQKDQFHU 7KH GLIIXVLRQ RI FDIIHLQH
PJP/ ZLWK DQG HWKDQRO DQG ZLWK DQG '062 ZDV ILUVWO\
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0DWHULDODQG0HWKRGV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
FDUULHG RXW DIWHU WKH PHPEUDQHV ZHUH SUHWUHDWHG ZLWK WKH VDPH VROXWLRQ DV WKDW IRU GRQRU
FKDPEHU 7KH GLIIXVLRQ RI WKH ILYH PRGHO GLIIXVDQWV ZLWK WKRVH SURYHG WR EH PRVW SRWHQW
IRUPXODWLRQVZHUHWKHQFDUULHGRXW$OOWKHH[SHULPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQWULSOLFDWHVDQGWKH
DYHUDJHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRIWKHGLIIXVDQWLQWKHDFFHSWRUFKDPEHUZDVSORWWHGDJDLQVWWLPHZLWK
VWDQGDUGHUURUVDQGZDVWKHQILWWHGZLWKWKHFRQWLQXRXVPRGHOZLWKFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOV
(ODVWLFSURSHUWLHVRIWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHZLWKHWKDQRO'062E\$)0
$XWRPDWLFIRUFHPLFURVFRS\$)0LVDXQLTXHWHFKQLTXHZKHUHWKHFDQWLOHYHURI$)0FDQPRYHXSDQGGRZQRYHUD
PRYHXSDQGGRZQRYHUDSRLQWRQWKHVDPSOHVXUIDFHWRSUREHWKHHODVWLFDQGDGKHVLYHSURSHUWLHVRIPDWHULDORU
SURSHUWLHVRIPDWHULDORUIRUFHPDSSLQJ/LDQJ0DRHWDO$VVKRZQLQ
)LJXUH D FDQWLOHYHU DWWDFKHG WR D 3LH]RHOHFWULF VFDQQHU FDQ PRYH DZD\ RU WRZDUGV D
VDPSOH DW D FRQWUROOHG UDWH 7KH DGKHVLYH RU UHSXOVLYH IRUFH EHWZHHQ WKH VDPSOH DQG WKH
FDQWLOHYHU WLS ZLOO PDNH LW EHQG GRZQZDUGV RU XSZDUGV 7KH WRS VXUIDFH RI WKH FDQWLOHYHU
UHIOHFWVWKHODVHUEHDPIURPDODVHUGLRGHVRWKDWDQ\VSDWLDOFKDQJHRIWKHUHIOHFWHGEHDPGXH
WRGHIOHFWLRQRIFDQWLOHYHULVFROOHFWHGE\DSRVLWLRQVHQVLWLYHSKRWRGLRGH/LX
,Q WKLV ZRUN WKH <RXQJ¶V PRGXOXV DQG KDUGQHVV RI WKH OLSRVRPH LQ WKH PHPEUDQH ZHUH
PHDVXUHG XVLQJ DQ DWRPLF IRUFH PLFURVFRSH ' $)0 ZLWK D 1DQR6FRSH ,,, FRQWUROOHU
'LJLWDO ,QVWUXPHQWV 6DQWD %DUEDUD &$ 7KLV LQYROYHG WKH LQGHQWDWLRQ RI D FROORLG SUREH
ZLWKDWLSUDGLXVRIPDQGDFDQWLOHYHUZLWKDVSULQJFRQVWDQWRI1PWKHDSSURDFK
YHORFLW\ZDVPV7KHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHDQGWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHSUHWUHDWHGZLWK
HWKDQRO '062 ZHUH IUHVKO\ SUHSDUHG DQG WKH\ ZHUH PRXQWHG RQWR JODVV VOLGHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0DWHULDODQG0HWKRGV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
IL[HGE\VXSHUJOXH7KHIRUFHPHDVXUHPHQWZDVSHUIRUPHGDWVSRWVRQRQHPHPEUDQHDW
URRP WHPSHUDWXUH R&R& DQG D KXPLGLW\ RI 7KH DSSURDFKLQJ IRUFH GLVWDQFH
GDWDZDVWKHQILWWHGWRWKH+HUW]LDQPRGHOWRFDOFXODWHWKH<RXQJ¶VPRGXOXVDQGKDUGQHVVRI
WKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHV
)LJXUH6FKHPDWLFGLDJUDPRIDQ$)0V\VWHP/LX
7KHLPSDFWRIHWKDQRORQWKHVL]HRIWKHOLSRVRPH
7KHVL]HDQGVL]HGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKHOLSRVRPHZLWKHWKDQROZDVFRPSDUHGZLWKWKRVHZLWKRXW
HWKDQROWRH[DPLQH LIWKH OLSRVRPHUHPDLQHG LQWDFW 7KH OLSRVRPHH[WUXGHGWKURXJKWKH
QPDQGWKHQPSRO\FDUERQDWHPHPEUDQHILOWHUVZHUHPHDVXUHGE\+336DQGWKRVHLQ
DQG HWKDQRO VROXWLRQ ZHUH DOVR PHDVXUHG $OO WKH PHDVXUHPHQWV ZHUH SHUIRUPHG LQ
WULSOLFDWHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0DWHULDODQG0HWKRGV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
7KHV\QHUJHWLFHIIHFWRISDUDFHWDPRODQGFDIIHLQHRQWKHLUGLIIXVLRQ
7KHGLIIXVLRQRISDUDFHWDPROPJP/ZDVFDUULHGRXWZLWKFDIIHLQHPJP/PJP/
DQGPJP/DIWHUWKHPHPEUDQHVZHUHSUHWUHDWHGZLWKWKHVDPHVROXWLRQDVWKDWIRUGRQRU
FKDPEHU 7KH GLIIXVLRQ H[SHULPHQW ZDV SHUIRUPHG LQ WULSOLFDWHV DQG WKH DYHUDJH
FRQFHQWUDWLRQV LQ WKH DFFHSWRU FKDPEHUV IRU HDFK PROHFXOH ZHUH SORWWHG DJDLQVW WLPH ZLWK
VWDQGDUGHUURUV7KHGDWDZDVWKHQILWWHGZLWKWKHFRQWLQXRXVGLIIXVLRQPRGHO
7+(',))86,212)7+(7367+528*+7+(/,32620(0(0%5$1(
0DWHULDOV
(*&* ZDV NLQGO\ SURYLGHG E\ 8QLOHYHU 8. (&* +3/& IURP JUHHQ WHD (*&
+3/& IURP JUHHQ WHD (& +3/& IURP JUHHQ WHD HWKDQRO SURRI
'062 %LR5HDJHQW 1D2+ DQG +&O DQDO\WLFDO JUDGH ZHUH DOO SXUFKDVHG IURP
6LJPD8.
89FDOLEUDWLRQRIWKH73V
$FDOLEUDWLRQRIWKHVWDQGDUGVROXWLRQRIWKH73VZDVFDUULHGRXWDQGWKH DEVRUEDQFHDWȜPD[
ZDV SORWWHG DJDLQVW WKH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ REWDLQ WKH DEVRUSWLYLW\ İ $OO PHDVXUHPHQWV ZHUH
SHUIRUPHGLQWULSOLFDWHDQGWKHDYHUDJH89DEVRUEDQFHZDVSORWWHGDJDLQVWFRQFHQWUDWLRQZLWK
VWDQGDUGHUURUV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0DWHULDODQG0HWKRGV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
$EVRUSWLRQRIWKH73VE\WKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
$EVRUSWLRQ RI WKH 73V ZDV SHUIRUPHG WR REWDLQ WKH PDVV DEVRUSWLRQ E\ WKH OLSRVRPH
PHPEUDQH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQHVZHUHFDUHIXOO\UHPRYHG IURPWKH LQVHUWVDQG LPPHUVHG
LQ P/ RI WKH 73V VROXWLRQ VRWKDW D VPDOO GHFUHDVH LQ WKH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ GXHWR DEVRUSWLRQ
FRXOG EH GHWHFWHG E\ 89 ZLWK WKH IROORZLQJ FRQFHQWUDWLRQV PJP/ IRU (*&* PJP/IRU(&*PJP/IRU(&DQGPJP/IRU(*&$OLTXRWVRI/RIWKH73V
VROXWLRQZHUHVDPSOHGDWDQGV
7KH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ ZDV PHDVXUHG E\ WKH 89 VSHFWURSKRWRPHWHU WKH YROXPH UHPRYHG ZDV
VXIILFLHQWO\ VPDOO WKDW LW GLG QRW VLJQLILFDQWO\ DIIHFW WKH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI WKH VROXWLRQ LQ WKH
FKDPEHU $OO WKH DEVRUSWLRQ H[SHULPHQWV ZHUH SHUIRUPHG LQ WULSOLFDWHV DQG DQ DYHUDJH
FRQFHQWUDWLRQZDVSORWWHGDJDLQVWWLPHZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUV
7KH DEVRUSWLRQ RI WKH 73V E\ WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH FRXOG EH PRGHOOHG E\ WKH ILUVWRUGHU
NLQHWLFVDV
GP
9 GW
N
Pc Pfc 9c
ZKHUHPLVWKHPDVVDEVRUEHGLQWKHPHPEUDQHDQG9LVWKHYROXPHRIWKHPHPEUDQHDW W
Pc DQG Pfc DUHWKH PDVVHV LQWKHGRQRUVROXWLRQDW W
W W DQG W f DQG 9 c LV YROXPHRIWKH
GRQRUVROXWLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0DWHULDODQG0HWKRGV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
$QG P Pc Pc
ZKHUH Pc LVWKHPDVVLQWKHGRQRUVROXWLRQDW W
W %\VROYLQJ(TXDWLRQZLWKLQLWLDOFRQGLWLRQWKDWDW W
P
Pc Pfc P
Pc Pfc
H[S W O ZKHUH O 9 c N9
7KHDEVRUSWLRQGDWDRIWKH73VZHUHWKXVILWWHGE\(TXDWLRQDQGWKHDEVRUSWLRQFRQVWDQW
NFRXOGEHREWDLQHG
7KHGLIIXVLRQRIWKH73VWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
7KHGLIIXVLRQRIWKH73V
7KH SHUPHDELOLWLHV RI WKH 73V ZHUH PHDVXUHG RQ WKH EDVLV RI WKH UHVXOWV REWDLQHG ZLWK
FDIIHLQH D FRQWLQXRXV GLIIXVLRQ PHWKRG ZDV XVHG ZLWK D SUHWUHDWPHQW RI WKH OLSRVRPH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0DWHULDODQG0HWKRGV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
PHPEUDQH RYHUQLJKW XVLQJ WKH VDPH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ DV WKDW IRU WKH GRQRU VROXWLRQ 7KH
GLIIXVLRQ H[SHULPHQW ZDV SHUIRUPHG LQ WULSOLFDWHV DQG WKH DYHUDJH FRQFHQWUDWLRQV LQ WKH
DFFHSWRU FKDPEHUV ZHUH SORWWHG DJDLQVW WLPH ZLWK VWDQGDUG HUURUV 7KH GDWD ZDV WKHQ ILWWHG
ZLWKWKHFRQWLQXRXVGLIIXVLRQPRGHOZLWKFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOV
:DVKLQJRIIWHVWRIWKH73VIURPWKHSUHWUHDWHGPHPEUDQH
7KHZDVKLQJRIIWHVWZDVFDUULHGRXWWRLQYHVWLJDWHZKHWKHUWKH73VLQWKHDFFHSWRUFKDPEHU
ZHUH WKRVH UHOHDVHG IURP WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH 7R ZDVK RII WKH 73V WKH OLSRVRPH
PHPEUDQHVZHUHSODFHGLQWKHDFFHSWRUFKDPEHUZLWKP/3%6ZLWKRXWDGRQRUVROXWLRQ
DIWHUSUHWUHDWPHQW7KHZDVKHGRIIFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIWKH73VLQWKHDFFHSWRUFKDPEHUZHUH
PHDVXUHG E\ WKH 89 7KH WHVWV ZHUH SHUIRUPHG LQ WULSOLFDWHV DQG DQ DYHUDJH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ
ZDVSORWWHGDJDLQVWWLPHZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUV
7KHSK\VLFRFKHPLFDOHQKDQFHPHQWRIWKHGLIIXVLRQRI(*&*WKURXJKWKH
OLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
'LIIXVLRQRI(*&*WKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHZLWKHWKDQRODQG'062
(WKDQRODQG'062ZHUHXVHGDVDQHQKDQFHUIRUWKHGLIIXVLRQRI(*&*WR
LPSURYHLWVSRRUSHUPHDELOLW\WKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH7KHSHUPHDWLRQHQKDQFHUZDV
DGGHG LQWRERWKWKHGRQRUDQGSUHWUHDWPHQWVROXWLRQDQGWKHFRQWLQXRXVGLIIXVLRQZDVWKXV
FDUULHG RXW LQ WULSOLFDWHV DV GHVFULEHG EHIRUH 7KH DYHUDJH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ LQ WKH DFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUZDVSORWWHGDJDLQVWWLPHZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0DWHULDODQG0HWKRGV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
'LIIXVLRQRI(*&*WKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHDWS+DQG
$VWKH LRQLVDWLRQVWDWHRID PROHFXOH LQIOXHQFHV LWVSHUPHDELOLW\DV LQWURGXFHGLQ&KDSWHU
WKHS+LQERWKWKHGRQRUDQGDFFHSWRUFKDPEHUZHUHDGMXVWWRDQGE\+&O1D2+IRU
WKH GLIIXVLRQ RI (*&* 7KH FRQWLQXRXV GLIIXVLRQ ZDV WKXV FDUULHG RXW LQ WULSOLFDWHV DV
GHVFULEHGEHIRUH7KHDYHUDJHFRQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRUFKDPEHUZDVSORWWHGDJDLQVWWLPH
ZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUV
5DPDQVSHFWUDRIOLSRVRPHDQG(*&*
5DPDQVSHFWURVFRS\ <YRQLVDOLJKWVFDWWHULQJWHFKQLTXHZKHUHDODVHUSKRWRQLVVFDWWHUHG
E\DVDPSOH PROHFXOHDQG ORVHVJDLQVHQHUJ\ZDYHOHQJWKGXULQJWKHSURFHVVZKLFKFDQEH
GHWHFWHG 7KLV HQHUJ\ FKDQJH LV FKDUDFWHULVWLF IRU D SDUWLFXODU ERQG LQ WKH PROHFXOH DQG D
5DPDQ VSHFWUXP LV VLPLODU WR )7,5 WKDW LW FDQ SURGXFH D SUHFLVH VSHFWUDO ILQJHUSULQW 7KH
GLVWLQFW DGYDQWDJH RI D 5DPDQ VSHFWURSKRWRPHWHU LV WKDW LW FDQ EH XVHG WR DQDO\VH DTXHRXV
VROXWLRQV VLQFH LW GRHV QRW VXIIHU IURP WKH ODUJH ZDWHU DEVRUSWLRQ HIIHFWV IRXQG ZLWK ,5
WHFKQLTXHV$FRQIRFDO5DPDQPLFURVFRSH:L7HFODVHUOHQJWKQP*HUPDQ\ZDVXVHG
LQWKLVZRUNWRDQDO\VHWKHVROXWLRQRIOLSRVRPHZYDQG(*&*PJP/
(ODVWLFSURSHUWLHVRIWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHZLWK(*&*DWS+DQGE\$)0
7KH<RXQJ¶VPRGXOXVDQGKDUGQHVVRIWKHOLSRVRPHLQWKHPHPEUDQHZLWK(*&*DWS+
DQG ZHUH PHDVXUHG XVLQJ $)0 ' $)0 ZLWK D 1DQR6FRSH ,,, FRQWUROOHU 'LJLWDO
,QVWUXPHQWV6DQWD%DUEDUD&$$VGHVFULEHG LQVHFWLRQ DFROORLGSUREHZLWKDWLS
UDGLXVRIPDQGDFDQWLOHYHUZLWKDVSULQJFRQVWDQWRI1PZHUHXVHGWKHDSSURDFK
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0DWHULDODQG0HWKRGV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
YHORFLW\ZDVPV7KHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHVZHUHLPPHUVHGLQ(*&*VROXWLRQDWS+
DQG DQG FRQWURO PHPEUDQHV ZHUH DOVR SUHSDUHG E\ LPPHUVHG LQ 3%6 VROXWLRQ DGMXVWHG WR
S+DQG7KHPHPEUDQHVZHUHWKHQPRXQWHGRQWRJODVVVOLGHVIL[HGE\VXSHUJOXH7KH
IRUFHPHDVXUHPHQWZDVSHUIRUPHGDWVSRWVRQRQHPHPEUDQHDWURRPWHPSHUDWXUH R&
R&DQGDKXPLGLW\RI7KHDSSURDFKLQJIRUFHGLVWDQFHGDWDZDVWKHQILWWHGWRWKH
+HUW]LDQPRGHOWRFDOFXODWHWKH<RXQJ¶VPRGXOXVDQGKDUGQHVVRIWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHV BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&+$37(5 02/(&8/$5 ',))86,21 7+528*+ 7+(
/,32620(0(0%5$1(
,1752'8&7,21
$ OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH PHWKRG )ODWHQ %XQMHV HW DO )ODWHQ 'KDQLNXOD HW DO )ODWHQ 6NDU HW DO )ODWHQ /XWKPDQ HW DO KDV EHHQ GHYHORSHG ZLWK LPSURYHG
SUHGLFWLRQ RI *, DEVRUSWLRQ )RU WKLV PHWKRG WKH DPRXQW RI WKH GLIIXVDQW IURP D GRQRU
FKDPEHULQWRDQXPEHURIIUHVKDFFHSWRUFKDPEHUVDUHPHDVXUHGLQVHTXHQFHWRFDOFXODWHWKH
SHUPHDELOLW\DVVXPLQJWKDWWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHGRQRUFKDPEHUUHPDLQVFRQVWDQWLWZLOO
EHUHIHUUHGWRDVWKHLQFUHPHQWDOPHWKRGLQWKLVZRUN+RZHYHUWKHUHZDVDQLQLWLDOWLPHODJ
IRU WKH GLIIXVLRQ WKDW FRXOG QRW EH GHVFULEHG E\ WKH WKHRU\ XVHG WR LQWHUSUHWWKH GDWD LQ WKH
FXUUHQW ZRUN LW LV VKRZQ WKDW LW LV GXH WR WKH DEVRUSWLRQ RI WKH GLIIXVDQW LQ WKH OLSRVRPH
PHPEUDQH 7KLV FRXOG OHDG WR DQ XQGHUHVWLPDWLRQ RI WKH SHUPHDELOLW\ IRU H[DPSOH WKH
SHUPHDELOLW\ RI QDGRORO ZLWK D KLJK SDUWLWLRQ FRHIILFLHQW ZDV UHSRUWHGWR EH µ]HUR¶ DOWKRXJK
WKLV LVNQRZQ QRWWREHWKHFDVH 6XJDQR+DPDGDHWDO :RKQVODQGDQG)DOOHU
=KX -LDQJ HW DO $YGHHI DQG 7VLQPDQ )ODWHQ %XQMHV HW DO )ODWHQ
'KDQLNXODHWDO)ODWHQ6NDUHWDO&KHQ0XUDZVNLHWDO)ODWHQ/XWKPDQ
HW DO $QRWKHU SRVVLEOH FRQWULEXWRU\ IDFWRU WR HUURUV LV WKH DVVXPSWLRQ WKDW WKH
FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI GLIIXVDQW LQ WKH GRQRU FKDPEHU LV FRQVWDQW VLQFH WKH UHGXFWLRQ PD\ QRW EH
QHJOLJLEOH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
,QWKHFXUUHQWZRUNWKHH[SHULPHQWDOSURFHGXUHDQGGDWDDQDO\VLVIRUWKHLQFUHPHQWDOPHWKRG
ZDVPRGLILHGWRLPSURYHWKHDFFXUDF\LWZLOOEHWHUPHGWKHFRQWLQXRXVPHWKRG,WLQYROYHGD
SUHWUHDWPHQW RI WKH PHPEUDQH ZLWK WKH GLIIXVDQW WR DYRLG WKH XQGHUHVWLPDWLRQ RI WKH
SHUPHDELOLW\ $ FRQWLQXRXV UDWKHU WKDQ LQFUHPHQWDO PHWKRG ZDV HPSOR\HG WRJHWKHU ZLWK D
PRGHOWKDWDFFRXQWVIRUWKHWLPHGHSHQGDQWFRQFHQWUDWLRQ LQWKHGRQRUFKDPEHU7RDQDO\VH
WKHGDWDLQWKLVZD\WKHDEVRUSWLRQDQGGHVRUSWLRQLVRWKHUPVRIWKHGLIIXVDQWLQWKHOLSRVRPH
PHPEUDQH ZHUH PHDVXUHG 7KH LPSDFWRI WKH GHVRUSWLRQ RQWKH GLIIXVLRQ ZDV H[DPLQHG E\
0$7/$%SURJUDPPLQJ
5(68/76
6L]HGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKHOLSRVRPHDIWHUH[WUXVLRQ
6LQFH WKH VL]H FRQWURO RI WKH OLSRVRPH E\ H[WUXVLRQ LV LPSRUWDQW LQ PDNLQJ WKH OLSRVRPH
PHPEUDQH WKH VL]H GLVWULEXWLRQ ZDV REWDLQHG IURP +336 DV VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH WKH
OLSRVRPH EHIRUH H[WUXVLRQ VKRZHG D ZLGH GLVWULEXWLRQ ZLWK D PHDQ VL]H RI QP
ZKHUHWKHUHZDVDVPDOOSHDNRI OLJKW LQWHQVLW\DWDURXQGQP $IWHUEHLQJH[WUXGHG
WKURXJKDQQPILOWHUPHPEUDQHWLPHVWKHVL]HZDVUHGXFHGWRDSSUR[LPDWHO\
QPZLWKDPRGHUDWHGLVWULEXWLRQDQGDIXUWKHUUHGXFWLRQWRQPE\DQRWKHUWLPHVRI
H[WUXVLRQWKURXJKQPILOWHUV
,Q)LJXUHWKHPHDQVL]HRIWKHOLSRVRPHGHFUHDVHGFRQVLGHUDEO\GRZQWRQPDIWHU
EHLQJH[WUXGHGWKURXJKDQQPILOWHUPHPEUDQHWLPHVDQGGRZQWRQP ZLWKD
IXUWKHU H[WUXVLRQ E\ DQRWKHU WLPHV 7KHUH ZDV QR VLJQLILFDQW GHFUHDVH LQ WKH VL]HV ZLWK
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
H[WUXVLRQSDVVHVXSWRWLPHV:KHQH[WUXGHGWKURXJKDQP ILOWHUPHPEUDQHWLPHV
WKH VL]H UHGXFHG WR QP DQG D IXUWKHU H[WUXVLRQ RI SDVVHV UHVXOWHG LQ QP
YHVLFOHV7KHUHZHUHQRVLJQLILFDQWUHGXFWLRQVLQWKHVL]HVZKHQH[WUXGHGXSWRWLPHV$V
VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH DQG )LJXUH WKH OLSRVRPH H[WUXGHG WKURXJK DQG QP ILOWHU
PHPEUDQHVZHUHERWKVWDEOHIRUKRXUV
XQH[WUXGHG
QP
QP
,QWHQVLW\
/LSRVRPHVL]HQP
)LJXUH7KHVL]HGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKHOLSRVRPHEHIRUHH[WUXVLRQEODFNOLQHDIWHUH[WUXVLRQWKURXJKQPILOWHU
PHPEUDQHUHGOLQHDQGDIWHUVXFFHVVLYHH[WUXVLRQWKURXJKQPDQGQPILOWHUVEOXHOLQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
QP
QP
6L]HQP
3DVVHVWKURXJKWKHILOWHUPHPEUDQH
)LJXUH7KHVL]HVRIWKHOLSRVRPHH[WUXGHGWKURXJKQPILOWHUILOOHGVTXDUHVDQGQPILOWHURSHQVTXDUHV
PHPEUDQHDIWHUDQGSDVVHV7KHPHDVXUHPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQWKUHHWULSOLFDWHVDQGDQDYHUDJHVL]H
ZDVSORWWHGDJDLQVWSDVVDJHVWKURXJKWKHILOWHUPHPEUDQHZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUV
6L]HQP
QPSDVVHV
QPSDVVHV
QPSDVVHV
QPSDVVHV
7LPHK
)LJXUH7KHVL]HVRIWKHOLSRVRPHH[WUXGHGWKURXJKQPILOWHUPHPEUDQHDIWHUILOOHGEODFNVTXDUHVRSHQ
EODFNVTXDUHVILOOHGJUH\VTXDUHVDQGRSHQJUH\VTXDUHVSDVVHVZLWKLQKRXUV7KHPHDVXUHPHQWVZHUH
SHUIRUPHGLQWKUHHWULSOLFDWHVDQGDQDYHUDJHVL]HZDVSORWWHGDJDLQVWWLPHZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
QPSDVVHV
QPSDVVHV
QPSDVVHV
QPSDVVHV
6L]HQP
7LPHK
)LJXUH7KHVL]HVRIWKHOLSRVRPHH[WUXGHGWKURXJKQPILOWHUPHPEUDQHDIWHUILOOHGEODFNVTXDUHVRSHQ
EODFNVTXDUHVILOOHGJUH\VTXDUHVDQGRSHQJUH\VTXDUHVSDVVHVZLWKLQKRXUV7KHPHDVXUHPHQWVZHUH
SHUIRUPHGLQWKUHHWULSOLFDWHVDQGDQDYHUDJHVL]HZDVSORWWHGDJDLQVWWLPHZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUV
&U\R6(0H[DPLQDWLRQRIWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
&U\RHOHFWURQ PLFURJUDSKV RI FURVVVHFWLRQV RI WKH OLSRVRPH DQG VXEVWUDWH PHPEUDQHV DUH
VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH 7KH SRURXV VXEVWUDWH PHPEUDQH KDV D WKLFNQHVV RI ȝP )LJXUH
D7KHVPDOOHUOLSRVRPHVDUHFOHDUO\HPEHGGHGLQWKHSRUHVRIWKHVXEVWUDWHPHPEUDQH
GXULQJWKHILUVWVWHSRIFHQWULIXJDWLRQRFFXS\LQJDWKLFNQHVVRIȝPDVVKRZQLQ )LJXUH
EZKLOHWKHODUJHUOLSRVRPHVDUHUHWDLQHGRQWKHVXUIDFHRIWKHVPDOOHUOLSRVRPHOD\HU
IRUPLQJDWLJKWSHUPHDWLRQEDUULHUIRUPDVVGLIIXVLRQZLWKDWKLFNQHVVRIȝP)LJXUH
FDQGGVKRZWKHLQWHULRUPRUSKRORJ\RIWKHVPDOOHU OLSRVRPH OD\HU LQWKHPHPEUDQHLQ
ZKLFK SRUHV DUH YLVLEOH DQG WKH IUDFWXUHG OLSRVRPH UHVXOWLQJ IURP FXWWLQJ WKH IUR]HQ
PHPEUDQHFDQEHVHHQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
D
E
/DUJHU
OLSRVRPH
OD\HUV
6XEVWUDWHPHPEUDQH
F
G
,QWHULRU
PRUSKRORJ\RI
WKHVPDOOHU
OLSRVRPHOD\HUV
I
,QWHULRU
PRUSKRORJ\RI
WKHODUJHU
OLSRVRPHOD\HUV
/DUJHU
OLSRVRPH
OD\HUV
7KHIUDFWXUHG
OLSRVRPH
,QWHULRU
PRUSKRORJ\RI
WKHVPDOOHU
OLSRVRPHOD\HUV
H
J
6PDOOHU
OLSRVRPH
OD\HUV
,QWHULRU
PRUSKRORJ\RI
WKHODUJHU
OLSRVRPHOD\HUV
6PDOOHU
OLSRVRPH
OD\HUV
K
7KHOLSRVRPH
PHPEUDQHDIWHU
WKHGLIIXVLRQ
,QWHULRUPRUSKRORJ\
RIWKHODUJHU
OLSRVRPHOD\HUVLQ
WKHPHPEUDQHDIWHU
WKHGLIIXVLRQ
)LJXUH&U\R6(0LPDJHVRIWKHDVXEVWUDWHPHPEUDQHEOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHFLQWHULRUPRUSKRORJ\RIWKH
VPDOOHUOLSRVRPHOD\HUGW\SLFDOIUDFWXUHGOLSRVRPHLQWKHVPDOOHUOLSRVRPHOD\HUHLQWHULRUPRUSKRORJ\RIWKH
ODUJHUOLSRVRPHOD\HUIFRPSDFWOLSRVRPHLQWKHODUJHUOLSRVRPHOD\HUJOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHDIWHUWKHGLIIXVLRQ
DQGKLQWHULRUPRUSKRORJ\RIWKHODUJHUOLSRVRPHOD\HULQWKHPHPEUDQHDIWHUWKHGLIIXVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
)LJXUH H DQG I VKRZ WKH LQWHULRU PRUSKRORJ\ RI WKH ODUJHU OLSRVRPH OD\HU RQ WKH
PHPEUDQHZKLFKLVFRQVLGHUDEO\PRUHFRPSDFWZLWKIHZYLVLEOHSRUHV7KHOLSRVRPHVZHUH
QRWQHFHVVDULO\UHJXODULQVKDSHRUVL]HEXWUDWKHUVTXHH]HGRUVWUHWFKHGJOREXODUYHVLFOHVZLWK
PXOWLOD\HUVWUXFWXUHV.QLJKW7KHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHZDVDOVRH[DPLQHGDIWHUEHLQJ
VDWXUDWHG ZLWK FDIIHLQH DV VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH J DQG K 7KHUH DUH QR YLVLEOH FKDQJHV
VXJJHVWLQJ WKDW WKH DEVRUEHG FDIIHLQH GLG QRW FDXVH VLJQLILFDQW VZHOOLQJ RU RWKHU
PRUSKRORJLFDOFKDQJHV
3KRVSKROLSLGDVVD\RIWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
7KHFDOLEUDWLRQRIHJJSKRVSKROLSLGVROXWLRQLVVKRZQLQ)LJXUHWKHREWDLQHGDEVRUSWLYLW\
İIURPWKHOLQHDUILWWLQJRIWKH89DEVRUEDQFHDWȜPD[QPDJDLQVWWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQZDV
P/PJZLWK5!$VDQH[DPSOHWKHPHDQDEVRUEDQFHRIWKHSKRVSKROLSLGLQRQH
OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH ZDV ZKLFK PHDQV WKHUH ZDV PJ ZKLFK ZDV
RIWKHWRWDOOLSLGLQSXWZDVHPEHGGHGLQHDFKPHPEUDQH
3UHWUHDWPHQWRIWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
7KH FDIIHLQH ZDV FDOLEUDWHG E\ WKH 89 VSHFWURSKRWRPHWHU EHIRUH WKH GLIIXVLRQ ZDV FDUULHG
RXW $V VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH WKH REWDLQHG DEVRUSWLYLW\ İ IURP WKH OLQHDU ILWWLQJ RI WKH 89
DEVRUEDQFHDWȜPD[QPDJDLQVWWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQZDVP/PJZLWKDQ5!
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
7KHLQIOXHQFHRIWKHSUHWUHDWPHQWRIWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHZLWKWKHGLIIXVDQWLVLOOXVWUDWHG
E\ FRPSDULQJ WKH GLIIXVLRQ UHVXOWV RI WKH RULJLQDO PHWKRG ZLWKZLWKRXW SUHWUHDWPHQW DV
IROORZVWKHSHUPHDELOLW\RIFDIIHLQHDVWKHVHOHFWHGPROHFXOHIRUYDOLGDWLQJWKHPHWKRGZDV
LQLWLDOO\ PHDVXUHG DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH UHSRUWHG PHWKRG )ODWHQ 'KDQLNXOD HW DO ZKHUH
RQHGRQRUFKDPEHUZLWKFDIIHLQHVROXWLRQPJP/ZDVSODFHGLQWRDIUHVK3%6VROXWLRQ
DW S+ LQ DQ DFFHSWRU FKDPEHU 7KH LQVHUWV ZHUH VHTXHQWLDOO\ UHSRVLWLRQHG LQ GLIIHUHQW
DFFHSWRU ZHOOV ZLWK WKH VDPH TXDQWLW\ RI WKH 3%6 VROXWLRQ DW YDULRXVWLPH LQWHUYDOV XS WR D
SHULRGRIKDQGWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVZHUHPHDVXUHGXVLQJWKH89VSHFWURSKRWRPHWHU
$EVRUEDQFH
&RQFHQWUDWLRQPJP/
)LJXUH7KHFDOLEUDWLRQRIWKHSKRVSKROLSLGDVVD\WKHH[SHULPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQWULSOLFDWHVDQGDQDYHUDJH
89DEVRUEDQFHZDVSORWWHGDJDLQVWFRQFHQWUDWLRQZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
89$EVRUEDQFH
&RQFHQWUDWLRQPJP/
)LJXUH7KHFDOLEUDWLRQRIFDIIHLQHDWQPWKHPHDVXUHPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQWULSOLFDWHVDQGWKHDYHUDJH89
DEVRUEDQFHZDVSORWWHGDJDLQVWFRQFHQWUDWLRQZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUV
7KH LQIOXHQFH RI WKH SUHWUHDWPHQW RI WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH ZLWK WKH GLIIXVDQW ZDV
H[DPLQHGE\FRPSDULQJWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHLQFUHPHQWDOPHWKRGZLWKDQGZLWKRXWSUHWUHDWPHQW
7KH UHVXOWV IRU FDIIHLQH DUH SORWWHG LQ )LJXUH DQG WKHUH LV DQ LQLWLDO WLPH ODJ EHIRUH D
VWHDG\VWDWHGLIIXVLRQUDWHLVDFKLHYHGDVUHSRUWHGSUHYLRXVO\)ODWHQ'KDQLNXODHWDO
7KH PHDVXUHPHQWV ZHUH UHSHDWHG XVLQJ WKH VDPH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH ZLWK IUHVK FDIIHLQH
GRQRU VROXWLRQ 7KH GDWD LQ )LJXUH VKRZ WKDW WKH WLPH ODJ ZDV UHGXFHG DQG WKDW WKH
DPRXQWGLIIXVHGLQFUHDVHG:KHQWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHZDVSUHWUHDWHGZLWKFDIIHLQHRQO\
RQWKHGRQRUVLGHWKHWLPH ODJGHFUHDVHG IXUWKHU ZLWKVWHDG\VWDWHEHLQJDFKLHYHG LQ K
:KHQ WKH PHPEUDQH ZDV SUHWUHDWHG E\ FRPSOHWH LPPHUVLRQ LQ WKH FDIIHLQH VROXWLRQ WKHUH
ZDVQRHYLGHQFHRIDWLPHODJDQGWKHDPRXQWRIGLIIXVHGFDIIHLQHLQFUHDVHGE\î PRO D IDFWRURI DW K FRPSDUHG ZLWK WKH ILUVW GLIIXVLRQ 7KH YDOXHV RI WKH SHUPHDELOLW\
ZHUH FDOFXODWHG E\ ILWWLQJ (TXDWLRQ WRWKH OLQHDU UHJLRQV RI WKH GDWD V
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
DQGDUHJLYHQLQ7DEOH7KHYDOXHIRUDSUHWUHDWPHQWE\FRPSOHWHLPPHUVLRQZDVDERXW
JUHDWHUWKDQWKDWIRUWKHLQFUHPHQWDOPHWKRG+RZHYHULWLVFOHDUO\QHFHVVDU\WRDFFRXQW
IRU WKH DEVRUSWLRQ RI WKH GLIIXVDQW LQ WKH PHPEUDQH ZKLFK ZLOO EH FRQVLGHUHG LQ WKH QH[W
VHFWLRQ
(
,QFUHPHQWDO PHWKRG ILUVWGLIIXVLRQ
(
,QFUHPHWDO PHWKRG UHSHDWHG GLIIXVLRQ
$FFXPXODWLYHDPRXQWPRO
,QFUHPHWDO PHWKRG SUHWUHDWHG DWWKHGRQRUVLGH
(
,QFUHPHQWDO PHWKRG SUHWUHDWHG DWERWKVLGHV
(
(
(
(
(
OLQHDUILWWLQJRIWKH
VWHDG\GLIIXVLRQ
(
(
7LPHV
)LJXUH7KHLQFUHPHQWDOGLIIXVLRQRIFDIIHLQHPJP/WKURXJKDOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHWKHILUVWGLIIXVLRQ
ILOOHGVTXDUHVWKHUHSHDWHGGLIIXVLRQRSHQVTXDUHVWKHGLIIXVLRQDIWHUWKHGRQRUVLGHRIWKHPHPEUDQHZDVSUH
WUHDWHGZLWKFDIIHLQHRSHQFLUFOHVDQGWKHGLIIXVLRQDIWHUWKHERWKVLGHVRIWKHPHPEUDQHZHUHSUHWUHDWHGZLWK
FDIIHLQHILOOHGFLUFOHV7KHHUURUEDUVUHSUHVHQWWKHVWDQGDUGHUURURIWKUHHUHSHDWV7KHOLQHVDUHWKHEHVWILWWR
(TXDWLRQ
7DEOH3HUPHDELOLW\YDOXHVIURPWKHLQFUHPHQWDOPHWKRGILWWHGWR(TXDWLRQ
ILUVWGLIIXVLRQ
UHSHDWHGGLIIXVLRQ
SUHWUHDWHGDWWKHGRQRUVLGH
SUHWUHDWHGDWERWKVLGHV
3HUPHDELOLW\îFPV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
0DVVDEVRUSWLRQRIFDIIHLQHLQWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
$V VKRZQ LQ WKH SUHYLRXV VHFWLRQ WKH SUHWUHDWPHQW RI WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH ZLWK WKH
GLIIXVDQWHOLPLQDWHVWKHWLPHODJZKLFKZDVSUREDEO\GXHWRWKHDEVRUSWLRQRIWKHGLIIXVDQWLQ
WKHPHPEUDQH7KHPDVVRIDEVRUEHGFDIIHLQHDVDIXQFWLRQRIWLPHLVVKRZQLQ)LJXUH,W
LQFUHDVHGUDSLGO\XQWLODVDWXUDWHGYDOXHRIî PJPJZDVDFKLHYHGDIWHUPLQ
ZKLFKFRUUHVSRQGVWRî PJFDIIHLQHDEVRUEHG LQDVLQJOH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH
7KLVLVHTXLYDOHQWWRîPRORIFDIIHLQHDQGLVWKXVFRQVLVWHQWZLWKWKHLQFUHDVH
RIWKHGLIIXVHGFDIIHLQHDWKîPROLQ)LJXUH
(
&DIIHLQHDEVRUEHGE\/0PJPJ
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
7LPHV
)LJXUH7KHDEVRUSWLRQRIFDIIHLQHE\DOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH/0OLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHVZHUHLPPHUVHGLQD
PORIPJP/FDIIHLQHVROXWLRQDQG/DOLTXRWVRIWKHVROXWLRQZDVVDPSOHGIRU89PHDVXUHPHQWDWLQWHUYDOV
RIPLQ7KHHUURUEDUVUHSUHVHQWWKHVWDQGDUGHUURUVRIWKUHHUHSHDWV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
,Q )LJXUH WKH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI FDIIHLQH LQ WKH GRQRU FKDPEHU UHGXFHG E\ QHDUO\ DIWHU K IRU WKH LQFUHPHQWDO PHWKRG ILUVW GLIIXVLRQ LQGLFDWLQJ WKDW WKH DVVXPSWLRQ RI D
FRQVWDQWYDOXHRI &' LQ(TXDWLRQ LV QRWMXVWLILHG7KHSHUPHDELOLW\DWHDFKWLPH LQWHUYDO
ZDV FDOFXODWHG IURP (TXDWLRQ DV VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH 7KH YDOXH IRU WKH LQFUHPHQWDO
PHWKRG ILUVW GLIIXVLRQ DW K ZDV RQO\ RI WKDW DW WKH VWHDG\ VWDWH GXH WR WKH
DEVRUSWLRQ E\ WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH 7KH SHUPHDELOLW\ WKHQ LQFUHDVHG JUDGXDOO\ XQWLO LW
UHDFKHGDQDSSUR[LPDWHO\VWHDG\VWDWHYDOXH,QFRQWUDVWWKHSHUPHDELOLW\ZDVFRQVWDQWZLWKLQ
H[SHULPHQWDO HUURU ZKHQ WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH ZDV SUHWUHDWHG ZLWK WKH GLIIXVDQW ZKLFK
ZDVPRUHWKDQDIDFWRURIWZRJUHDWHUWKDQWKDWPHDVXUHGZLWKRXWWKHSUHWUHDWPHQW
,QFUHPHQWDO PHWKRG ILUVWGLIIXVLRQ
,QFUHPHQWDO PHWKRG SUHWUHDWHG DWERWKVLGHV
3HUPHDELOLW\îFPV
7LPHV
)LJXUH7KHSHUPHDELOLW\REWDLQHGIURPWKHLQFUHPHQWDOPHWKRGIRUFDIIHLQHWKHILUVWGLIIXVLRQRSHQVTXDUHV
DQGWKHGLIIXVLRQDIWHUWKHPHPEUDQHZDVSUHWUHDWHGRQERWKVLGHVILOOHGVTXDUHV7KHHUURUEDUVUHSUHVHQWWKH
FRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVRIWKUHHUHSHDWV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
7KHGHVRUSWLRQRIWKHFDIIHLQHZDVFDUULHGRXWWRLQYHVWLJDWH LWV LPSDFWRQWKHSHUPHDELOLW\
$V VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH LQLWLDOO\ WKH UDWH RI GHVRUSWLRQ ZDV UDSLG XQWLO LW UHGXFHG DIWHU
DSSUR[LPDWHO\K2YHUDKSHULRGDWRWDORIîPJRIWKHFDIIHLQHZDVUHOHDVHG
SHUPJRIOLSRVRPHZKLFKZDVRIWKHWRWDODPRXQWRULJLQDOO\DEVRUEHG
&DIIHLQHUHOHDVHGE\WKHOLSRVRPH
PHPEUDQHPJPJ
7LPHV
)LJXUH7KHGHVRUSWLRQRIFDIIHLQHIURPDOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH7KUHHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHVZHUHILUVW
HTXLOLEUDWHGLQFDIIHLQHVROXWLRQIRUK7KHHUURUEDUVUHSUHVHQWWKHVWDQGDUGHUURUVRIWKUHHUHSHDWV
7KHFRQWLQXRXVGLIIXVLRQRIFDIIHLQHDIWHUSUHWUHDWPHQWDQGWKHLQIOXHQFHRI
DJLWDWLRQ
)RU GLIIXVDQWV ZLWK D VPDOO SHUPHDELOLW\ RU VPDOO 89 DEVRUEDQFH WKH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ LQ WKH
DFFHSWRUFKDPEHUDIWHUVHYHUDOKRXUVLVWRRVPDOOWREHGHWHFWHGXVLQJWKHLQFUHPHQWDOPHWKRG
7KH FRQWLQXRXV PHWKRG RYHUFRPHV WKLV GLVDGYDQWDJH )LJXUH VKRZV WKH GLIIXVLRQ GDWD
IRU FDIIHLQH PJP/ XVLQJ WKLV PHWKRG ZLWKRXW SUHWUHDWPHQW RI WKH OLSRVRPH
PHPEUDQH DQG ZLWK SUHWUHDWPHQW LQYROYLQJ LPPHUVLRQ RI WKH PHPEUDQH LQ WKH GRQRU
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
VROXWLRQ IRU K 7KH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI WKH GLIIXVHG FDIIHLQH LQ WKH DFFHSWRU FKDPEHU DV D
IXQFWLRQ RI WLPH ZDV ILWWHG WR (T ZLWK 5 ı $IWHU K WKH DPRXQW RI GLIIXVHG
FDIIHLQH ZDV î PRO JUHDWHU IRU WKH SUHWUHDWHG PHPEUDQH FRPSDUHG ZLWK WKH
XQWUHDWHGPHPEUDQH7KLVYDOXHLVFRPSDUDEOHWRWKHDPRXQWî PROWKDWZDV
DEVRUEHGLQWKHSUHWUHDWPHQWRQWKHEDVLVRIWKDWPHDVXUHGE\WKHSURFHGXUHGHVFULEHGLQWKH
SUHYLRXVVHFWLRQ7KHSHUPHDELOLWLHVIRUWKHXQWUHDWHGDQGSUHWUHDWHGPHPEUDQHVFRUUHVSRQG
WRîDQGîFPVDQGWKXVWKHSUHWUHDWPHQWLQFUHDVHGWKHYDOXHE\
DERXW D IDFWRU RI WZR ,W ZLOO EH VKRZQ LQ &KDSWHU WKDW WKH YDOXH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ WR WKDW
REWDLQHG E\SUHWUHDWPHQW LVFRUUHFW,QDGGLWLRQWKLV YDOXH LV QHDUO\D IDFWRURIWZRJUHDWHU
WKDQWKDWIURPWKHLQFUHPHQWDOPHWKRGZLWKSUHWUHDWPHQWDVVXPLQJWKHUHLVQRDEVRUSWLRQRI
WKH GLIIXVDQW E\ WKH PHPEUDQH ZKLFK LV î FPV VHH )LJXUH IURP D OLQHDU
ILWWLQJWR(TXDWLRQ
7KHHIIHFWRIDJLWDWLRQRQWKHSHUPHDELOLW\ZDVDOVRLQYHVWLJDWHGE\XVLQJDVKDNLQJLQFXEDWRU
DW USP )LJXUH VKRZV GLIIXVLRQ GDWD IRU FDIIHLQH LQLWLDO GRQRU FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI
PJP/ XVLQJ WKH FRQWLQXRXV PHWKRG ZLWK D SUHWUHDWPHQW IRU K ZLWK DQG ZLWKRXW
DJLWDWLRQ7KHUHLVQRVLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHLQWKHUHVXOWVDQGWKXVLWPD\EHDVVXPHGWKDWWKH
YROXPHLQWKHGRQRUFKDPEHULVVXIILFLHQWO\VPDOOWKDWLWLVHTXLYDOHQWWRDZHOOPL[HGV\VWHP
6LQFH WKH WKLFNQHVV RI WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH ZDV PHDVXUHG WKH SDUWLWLRQ FRHIILFLHQW RI
FDIIHLQH EHWZHHQ WKH OLSRVRPH DQG WKH ZDWHU SKDVH FRXOG EH REWDLQHG IURP WKH DEVRUSWLRQ
GDWD XVLQJ (T 7KH YDOXH REWDLQHG ZDV DQG WKXV WKH GLIIXVLRQ FRHIILFLHQW RI
FDIIHLQHFRXOGWKXVEHFDOFXODWHGIURP' 3KĮDVîFPV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRUFKDPEHUPROP
(
&RQWLQXRXVPHWKRG QRSUHWUHDWPHQW
(
(
&RQWLQXRXVPHWKRG ZLWKSUHWUHDWPHQW
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
7LPHV
)LJXUH7KHFRQWLQXRXVGLIIXVLRQRIFDIIHLQHPJP/WKURXJKDOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHZLWKSUHWUHDWPHQW
ILOOHGFLUFOHVDQGZLWKRXWSUHWUHDWPHQWFLUFOHV7KHGDWDDUHILWWHGWR(TXDWLRQVROLGOLQHVZLWK
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRUFKDPEHUPROP
FRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVGDVKHGOLQHV7KHHUURUVEDUVUHSUHVHQWWKHVWDQGDUGHUURUVRIWKUHHUHSHDWV
(
&RQWLQXRXVPHWKRG FDIIHLQH QRVKDNLQJ
(
&RQWLQXRXVPHWKRG FDIIHLQH VKDNHQDWUSP
(
(
(
(
(
7LPHV
)LJXUH7KHFRQWLQXRXVGLIIXVLRQRIFDIIHLQHLQLWLDOGRQRUFRQFHQWUDWLRQRIPJP/ZLWKRXWVKDNLQJRSHQ
VTXDUHVDQGWKHGLIIXVLRQLQDQLQFXEDWRUVKDNHUDWUSPNHSWDW R&RSHQWULDQJOHV7KHGDWDDUHILWWHGWR
(TXDWLRQVROLGOLQHZLWKFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVGDVKHGOLQHV7KHHUURUEDUVUHSUHVHQWWKHVWDQGDUGHUURUV
RIWKUHHUHSHDWV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
,QIOXHQFHRISURORQJHGSUHWUHDWPHQWWLPHDQGWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQJUDGLHQWRQ
WKHGLIIXVLRQRIFDIIHLQH
8VLQJ WKH FRQWLQXRXV PHWKRG WKH LQIOXHQFH RI WKH SUHWUHDWPHQW WLPH ZDV VWXGLHG E\
LPPHUVLQJ WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQHV LQ D FDIIHLQH VROXWLRQ IRU SHULRGV RI DQG K
ZLWK D FRQFHQWUDWLRQ PJP/ HTXDO WR WKDW WR EH XVHG LQ WKH GRQRU FKDPEHU 7KH
H[SHULPHQWDO GDWD DUH VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH DQG WKH\ ZHUH ILWWHG WR (TXDWLRQ ZLWK 5
7KHSHUPHDELOLWLHVDUHJLYHQLQ)LJXUHWKH\DUHQRWVLJQLILFDQWO\GLIIHUHQWDQGWKH
PHDQ YDOXH LV î FPV 7KLV DOVR GHPRQVWUDWHV WKDW WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH
PDLQWDLQVLWVLQWHJULW\DQGVWDELOLW\RYHUWKHWLPHSHULRGRIWKHSUHWUHDWPHQWVROXWLRQ
7KHGDWDLQ)LJXUHZHUHREWDLQHGE\SUHWUHDWLQJWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHZLWKWKHGRQRU
VROXWLRQRIFDIIHLQHDWPJP/IRUK7KHSHUPHDELOLWLHVREWDLQHGE\
WKH ILWWLQJ WKH GDWD WR (TXDWLRQ 5 DUH VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH WKH ! FRQILGHQFH LQWHUYDOV IRU WKH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ DW DQG PJP/ UHIOHFW WKH JUHDWHU
H[SHULPHQWDO HUURUV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH VPDOOHU FRQFHQWUDWLRQV 7KH SHUPHDELOLWLHV DUH QRW
VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHUHQW DQG WKH PHDQ YDOXH LV î FPV 7KLV UHVXOW LV FRQVLVWHQW
ZLWKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHUHPDLQLQJLQWDFWGXULQJH[SRVXUHRIKLJKFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIWKH
GRQRUVROXWLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
(
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUPROP
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUPROP
(
K
(
(
(
(
(
(
K
(
(
(
(
(
(
7LPHV
D
E
(
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUPROP
(
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUPROP
7LPHV
K
(
(
(
(
(
(
7LPHV
K
(
(
(
(
(
(
F
7LPHV
G
)LJXUH7KHFRQWLQXRXVGLIIXVLRQRIFDIIHLQHILOOHGFLUFOHVDIWHUSUHWUHDWPHQWWLPHVRIDEFDQGG
K7KHGDWDDUHILWWHGWR(TXDWLRQVROLGOLQHVZLWKFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVGDVKHGOLQHV7KHHUURUEDUV
UHSUHVHQWVWDQGDUGHUURUVRIWKUHHUHSHDWV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
3HUPHDELOLW\îFPV
3UHWUHDWWLPHK
)LJXUH3HUPHDELOLW\RIFDIIHLQHIURPWKHFRQWLQXRXVPHWKRGDIWHUSUHWUHDWPHQWWLPHVRIDQGK7KH
PHDQYDOXHVZHUHFDOFXODWHGIURPWKUHHLQGHSHQGHQWUHSHDWVDQGWKHHUURUEDUVUHSUHVHQWFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDORI
WKHWKUHHUHSHDWV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
(
PJP/
(
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUPROP
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUPROP
(
(
(
(
(
PJP/
(
(
(
(
(
(
7LPHV
D
E
(
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUPROP
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUPROP
7LPHV
(
PJP/
(
(
(
(
(
PJP/
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
7LPHV
7LPHV
F
G
)LJXUH7KHFRQWLQXRXVGLIIXVLRQRIFDIIHLQHIRUGRQRUFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIDEFDQGG
PJP/7KHGDWDDUHILWWHGWR(TXDWLRQVROLGOLQHVZLWKFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVGDVKHGOLQHV7KHHUURUEDUV
UHSUHVHQWVWDQGDUGHUURUVRIWKUHHUHSHDWV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
3HUPHDELOLW\îFPV
&DIIHLQHFRQFHQWUDWLRQPJPO
)LJXUH3HUPHDELOLW\RIFDIIHLQHIRUGRQRUFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIDQGPJPO7KHPHDQYDOXHV
ZHUHFDOFXODWHGIURPWKUHHLQGHSHQGHQWUHSHDWVDQGWKHHUURUEDUVUHSUHVHQWFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVRIWKHWKUHH
UHSHDWV
7KHLPSDFWRIWKHGHVRUSWLRQRQWKHSHUPHDELOLW\
7R LQYHVWLJDWH DQ\ RYHUHVWLPDWLRQ RI WKH SHUPHDELOLW\ GXH WR WKH UHOHDVH RI FDIIHLQH LQ WKH
DFFHSWRU FKDPEHU WKH YDOXHV RI $ DQG % ZHUH REWDLQHG E\ ILWWLQJ WKH GHVRUSWLRQ GDWD LQ
)LJXUHWR(TXDWLRQZKLFKDUHVDQGUHVSHFWLYHO\VHH )LJXUH
,Q)LJXUHWKHFRQWLQXRXVGLIIXVLRQGDWDRIFDIIHLQHDIWHUSUHWUHDWPHQWLQ)LJXUHLV
ILWWHGWR(TXDWLRQXVLQJ0$7/$%7KHEHVWILWYDOXHRIWKHSHUPHDELOLW\LVî FPVZKLFKLVFRPSDUDEOHWRWKHYDOXHîFPVIURPWKHFRQWLQXRXVGLIIXVLRQ
PRGHO
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
/RJ0W
/RJW
)LJXUH'HVRUSWLRQGDWDIRUFDIIHLQHILWWHGWR(TXDWLRQWRREWDLQWKHYDOXHVRI$DQG%ZKLFKDUHDQG
UHVSHFWLYHO\
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRUFKDPEHU
PROP
ZLWKSUHWUHDWPHQW
GLIIXVLRQPRGHOZLWKUHOHDVH
7LPHV
)LJXUH7KHFRQWLQXRXVGLIIXVLRQRIFDIIHLQHPJP/DIWHUSUHWUHDWPHQW7KHGDWDDUHILWWHGWR(TXDWLRQ
XVLQJ0$7/$%
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
6800$5<
,Q WKLV FKDSWHU WKH UHVXOWV RI WKH FKDUDFWHULVDWLRQ RI WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH DQG WKH
PROHFXODUGLIIXVLRQWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHFDQEHVXPPDULVHGDV
x
7KH VL]HV RI WKH OLSRVRPH FRXOG EH HIIHFWLYHO\ FRQWUROOHG E\ H[WUXVLRQ WKURXJK
SRO\FDUERQDWH ILOWHU PHPEUDQHV WRREWDLQ QP ZLWK D QP PHPEUDQH DQG
QPZLWKDQPPHPEUDQHZKLFKZHUHVWDEOHIRUDWOHDVWK
x
7KH VPDOOHU VL]HG OLSRVRPH RFFXSLHG WKH SRUHV RI WKH VXEVWUDWH PHPEUDQH E\ DERXW
PLQWKLFNQHVVZKLOHWKHODUJHURQHVIRUPHGDFRPSDFWOD\HURIDERXWP
ZLWK IHZ YLVLEOH SRUHV XQGHU WKH FU\R6(0 7KH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH VKRZHG QR
VZHOOLQJRUPRUSKRORJLFDOFKDQJHVDIWHUGLIIXVLRQ
x
7KHSUHWUHDWPHQWRIWKH PHPEUDQHZLWKFDIIHLQHUHGXFHGRUHOLPLQDWHGWKHWLPH ODJ
WR WKH H[WHQW WKDW WKH DPRXQW GLIIXVHG LQFUHDVHG DIWHU D JLYH WLPH LQGLFDWLQJ WKH
LPSRUWDQFHWRDFFRXQWIRUWKHDEVRUSWLRQRIWKHGLIIXVDQWLQWKHPHPEUDQH
x
î PRO FDIIHLQH ZDV DEVRUEHG LQ WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH ZKLFK
FRUUHVSRQGV WR WKH GLIIHUHQFH LQ WKH DPRXQW RI WKH GLIIXVHG FDIIHLQH ZKHQ WKH
OLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHZDVSUHWUHDWHGRUZLWKRXWSUHWUHDWPHQW
x
7KH FRQWLQXRXV PRGHO ILWV WKH GLIIXVLRQ FORVHO\ DQG WKH SHUPHDELOLW\ RI FDIIHLQH
WKURXJK WKH SUHWUHDWHG PHPEUDQH LV î FPV ZKLFK LV D IDFWRU RI WZR
JUHDWHUWKDQWKDWZKHQXQWUHDWHG$JLWDWLRQRIWKHV\VWHPKDGQRVLJQLILFDQWLPSDFWRQ
WKHSHUPHDELOLW\
x
7KHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHUHPDLQVLQWDFWGXULQJH[SRVXUHRIKLJKFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIWKH
GRQRUVROXWLRQZLWKLQKRXUV
x
7KHSHUPHDELOLW\ZDVQRWVLJQLILFDQWO\LQIOXHQFHGE\WKHGHVRUSWLRQRIWKHFDIIHLQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU3K\VLFRFKHPLFDO(QKDQFHPHQWRIWKH0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&+$37(5 3+<6,&2&+(0,&$/ (1+$1&(0(17 2)
7+(02/(&8/$5',))86,217+528*+7+(/,32620(
0(0%5$1(
,1752'8&7,21
$Q LPSURYHG PHWKRG RI WKH GLIIXVLRQ WKURXJK WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH ZLWK D FRQWLQXRXV
PRGHOZDVHVWDEOLVKHG LQWKHSUHYLRXVFKDSWHUEDVHGRQPHDVXUHPHQWVZLWKFDIIHLQH,QWKLV
FKDSWHUGLIIXVLRQRIWKHILYHPRGHOGLIIXVDQWVLQFOXGLQJDF\FORYLUDPSKRWHULFLQ%QDGRORO
SDUDFHWDPRODQGWKHRSK\OOLQHZDVFDUULHGRXWWRHYDOXDWHWKHLPSURYHGOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
PRGHOE\FRPSDULQJWKHSHUPHDELOLW\RIWKHPRGHOGLIIXVDQWVREWDLQHGIURPWKHPRGHOLQWKLV
ZRUNZLWKWKRVHIURPWKHRWKHUHVWDEOLVKHGLQYLWURPRGHOVLQFOXGLQJ3$03$DQG&DFRDQG
WKHKXPDQDEVRUSWLRQGDWDLQWKHOLWHUDWXUH
7KHDSSOLFDWLRQRIGLIIXVLRQHQKDQFHUVRIHWKDQRODQG'062ZDVH[SORUHGILUVWO\RQFDIIHLQH
WKHGLIIXVLRQRIFDIIHLQHZDVFDUULHGRXWE\DGGLQJGLIIHUHQWDTXHRXVVROXWLRQVRIHWKDQRODQG
'062 ZLWK GLIIHUHQW FRQFHQWUDWLRQV 7KH GLIIXVLRQ RI WKH RWKHU PRGHO GLIIXVDQWV ZDV WKHQ
SHUIRUPHG ZLWK WKH PRVW HIIHFWLYH IRUPXODWLRQV 7KH LPSDFW RI HWKDQRO DQG '062 RQ WKH
PHFKDQLFDO SURSHUWLHV RI WKH OLSRVRPH ZDV H[DPLQHG DQG WKH VL]HV RI WKH OLSRVRPH ZLWK
HWKDQROZHUHPHDVXUHGLQRUGHUWRHQVXUHWKDWWKHHQKDQFHGGLIIXVLRQZDVQRWGXHWRGDPDJH
RIWKHOLSRVRPHLQWKHPHPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU3K\VLFRFKHPLFDO(QKDQFHPHQWRIWKH0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
)LQDOO\WKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIWKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH PHWKRGZDVH[SORUHG E\FRQVLGHULQJWKH
V\QHUJHWLFHIIHFWRIGUXJVDQGWKHLUIRUPXODWLRQV7KHGLIIXVLRQRISDUDFHWDPROZLWKFDIIHLQH
WKURXJKDOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHZDVFDUULHGRXWWRH[DPLQHLIWKH\KDYHDSRVLWLYHRUQHJDWLYH
V\QHUJ\RQHDFKRWKHU
5(68/76
89FDOLEUDWLRQRIWKHPRGHOGLIIXVDQWV
&DOLEUDWLRQ ZDV FDUULHG RXW XVLQJ 89 VSHFWURVFRS\ WR REWDLQ WKH DEVRUSWLYLW\ İ RI HDFK
PROHFXOH DQG DV VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH WKH GDWD ZHUH OLQHDU 7KH YDOXHV RI ȜPD[ DQG WKH
DEVRUSWLYLW\İRIHDFKPROHFXOHDUHOLVWHGLQ7DEOHZLWK5!
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU3K\VLFRFKHPLFDO(QKDQFHPHQWRIWKH0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
7KHRSK\OOLQH
89$EVRUEDQFH
89$EVRUEDQFH
3DUDFHWDPRO
&RQFHQWUDWLRQPJP/
&RQFHQWUDWLRQPJP/
D
E
$F\FORYLU
89$EVRUEDQFH
89$EVRUEDQFH
1DGRORO
&RQFHQWUDWLRQPJP/
&RQFHQWUDWLRQPJP/
F
G
89$EVRUEDQFH
$PSKRWHULFLQ%
&RQFHQWUDWLRQPJP/
H
)LJXUH7KH89FDOLEUDWLRQRIWKHILYHGLIIXVDQWVDSDUDFHWDPROEWKHRSK\OOLQHFDF\FORYLUGQDGRORODQG
HDPSKRWHULFLQ%7KHFDOLEUDWLRQZDVSHUIRUPHGLQWULSOLFDWHVIRUHDFKGLIIXVDQWDQGWKHDYHUDJH89DEVRUEDQFH
ZDVSORWWHGDJDLQVWFRQFHQWUDWLRQZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU3K\VLFRFKHPLFDO(QKDQFHPHQWRIWKH0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
7DEOH7KHȜPD[DQGWKHDEVRUSWLYLW\İRIWKHILYHGLIIXVDQWVLQWKH89VSHFWUXP
'LIIXVDQW
3DUDFHWDPRO
7KHRSK\OOLQH
$F\FORYLU
1DGRORO
$PSKRWHULFLQ%
ȜPD[QP
$EVRUSWLYLW\İ
5 IRUWKHOLQHDUILWWLQJ
&RQWLQXRXVGLIIXVLRQRIWKHPRGHOGLIIXVDQWV
2Q WKH EDVLV RI WKH UHVXOWV REWDLQHG ZLWK FDIIHLQH D FRQWLQXRXV GLIIXVLRQ PHWKRG ZDV
HVWDEOLVKHGZLWKDSUHWUHDWPHQWRIWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHXVLQJWKHVDPHFRQFHQWUDWLRQDV
WKDW IRU WKH GRQRU VROXWLRQ ,W ZDV LQGLFDWHG LQ WKH SUHOLPLQDU\ H[SHULPHQW WKDW K RI SUH
WUHDWPHQW LV VXIILFLHQW IRU DOO WKH GLIIXVDQWV LQ WKLV ZRUN WR UHDFK HTXLOLEULXP EHWZHHQ WKH
FRQFHQWUDWLRQV LQ WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH DQG LQ WKH GRQRU VROXWLRQ 7KH FRQFHQWUDWLRQV RI
WKHGLIIXVDQWLQWKHDFFHSWRUZHUHSORWWHGDVDIXQFWLRQRIWLPHDQG ILWWHG WR(TXDWLRQDV
VKRZQLQ)LJXUH7KHSHUPHDELOLW\RIWKHGLIIXVDQWREWDLQHGIURPWKHILWWLQJVDUHOLVWHGLQ
7DEOHZKLFKZHUHQRUPDOLVHGE\WKDWRIFDIIHLQHWRJHWKHUZLWKWKHSUHYLRXVO\SXEOLVKHG
GDWHXVLQJWKHRULJLQDOOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHPRGHO3$03$&DFRPHWKRGVDQGWKHKXPDQ
DEVRUSWLRQGDWD)DIUDFWLRQDEVRUEHG
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU3K\VLFRFKHPLFDO(QKDQFHPHQWRIWKH0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
(
3DUDFHWDPRO
(
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUPROP
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUPROP
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
7KHRSK\OOLQH
(
(
(
(
(
7LPHV
D
E
(
(
$F\FORYLU (
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUPROP
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUPROP
7LPHV
(
(
(
(
(
7LPHV
1DGRORO
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
7LPHV
F
G
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUPROP
(
$PSKRWHULFLQ %
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
7LPHV
H
)LJXUH7KHFRQWLQXRXVGLIIXVLRQRIWKHILYHGLIIXVDQWWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHDSDUDFHWDPROE
WKHRSK\OOLQHFDF\FORYLUGQDGRORODQGHDPSKRWHULFLQ%7KHH[SHULPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQWULSOLFDWHVDQGDQ
DYHUDJHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRIWKHGLIIXVDQWLQWKHDFFHSWRUZDVSORWWHGDVDIXQFWLRQRIWLPHILOOHGVTXDUHVZLWKVWDQGDUG
HUURUV7KHGLIIXVLRQZDVILWWHGZLWKWKHFRQWLQXRXVGLIIXVLRQPRGHOLQVROLGOLQHZLWKFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVLQ
GDVKOLQHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU3K\VLFRFKHPLFDO(QKDQFHPHQWRIWKH0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
7DEOH3HUPHDELOLW\YDOXHVQRUPDOLVHGE\FDIIHLQH
D
+XPDQ
$EVRUSWLRQ
E
1RUPDOLVHGSHUPHDELOLW\
F
,QFUHPHQWDO
PHWKRG
I
7ULOD\HU3$03$
)D
&RQWLQXRXV
PHWKRG
3DUDFHWDPRO
7KHRSK\OOLQH
GH
3$03$
PRGHO
J
&DFR
&DIIHLQH
$F\FORYLU
1DGRORO
$PSKRWHULFLQ%
D
E
/LWHUDWXUH)DYDOXHV=KX-LDQJHWDO
'DWDILWWHGWR(TXDWLRQ
F
/LWHUDWXUHYDOXHV)ODWHQ'KDQLNXODHWDO
GH
3HUPHDELOLW\YDOXHVXVLQJDWUDGLWLRQDO3$03$PHWKRGZKHUHDK\GURSKRELFK\GURSKLOLFVXEVWUDWHPHPEUDQHZDVFRDWHG
ZLWK(3&VROXWLRQLQVROYHQWV.DQV\6HQQHUHWDO=KX-LDQJHWDO
I
3HUPHDELOLW\ YDOXHV IURP D 3$03$ PRGHO ZKHUH D 39') PHPEUDQH ZDV FRDWHG ZLWK OLSLGRLOOLSLG WULOD\HU IURP
UHIHUHQFH&KHQ0XUDZVNLHWDO
J
/LWHUDWXUHYDOXHV<D]GDQLDQ*O\QQHWDO<DPDVKLWD)XUXED\DVKLHWDO6LLVVDOR/DLQHHWDO
7KH SHUPHDELOLW\ UHVXOWV IURP WKH LPSURYHG OLSRVRPH PRGHO DUH FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK KXPDQ
DEVRUSWLRQGDWDLQWKDWDPROHFXOHZLWKDJUHDWHU)DKDGDJUHDWHUSHUPHDELOLW\DQGYLFHYHUVD
&RPSDUHG ZLWK WKH RWKHU HVWDEOLVKHG LQ YLWUR PHWKRGV WKH LPSURYHG OLSRVRPH PRGHO
DFKLHYHV DQ RXWVWDQGLQJ UDQNLQJ IRU WKH SRRUO\ DEVRUEHG PROHFXOHV )RU H[DPSOH
DPSKRWHULFLQ%ZDVLQFRUUHFWO\SUHGLFWHGWREHLPSHUPHDEOHLQWKH3$03$PRGHOZKLOHWKH
FRQWLQXRXV OLSRVRPH PRGHO JDYH D SHUPHDELOLW\ RI ZKLFK LQGLFDWHG D ORZ
DEVRUSWLRQ UDWKHU WKDQ QR DEVRUSWLRQ LQ WKH KXPDQ *, WUDFW 1DGRORO KDG D YHU\ ORZ
SHUPHDELOLW\ RI LQ WKH RULJLQDO OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH PRGHO LQ FRQWUDVW LW KDG D
SHUPHDELOLW\RIIURPWKHLPSURYHGPHWKRGWKDWDJUHHVPRUHFORVHO\ZLWKWKH
KXPDQDEVRUSWLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU3K\VLFRFKHPLFDO(QKDQFHPHQWRIWKH0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
7KXVIDUWKHFRQWLQXRXVGLIIXVLRQPHWKRGDQGDVVRFLDWHGGDWDDQDO\VLVKDVEHHQGHPRQVWUDWHG
WREHDXVHIXOLQYLWURWRROIRUDQLPSURYHGSUHGLFWLRQRIWKHKXPDQDEVRUSWLRQDQGSORWVRI
WKHKXPDQDEVRUSWLRQDVDIXQFWLRQWLPHDQGWKHSHUPHDELOLW\IURPWKH LQYLWURPHWKRGVZLOO
EHFRPSDUHGLQ&KDSWHU
3K\VLFRFKHPLFDOHQKDQFHPHQWRIWKHPROHFXODUGLIIXVLRQE\HWKDQRODQG'062
7KHGLIIXVLRQRIFDIIHLQHZLWKHWKDQRO'062
7KH SRWHQWLDO SK\VLFRFKHPLFDO HQKDQFHPHQW RI HWKDQRO DQG '062 RQ PROHFXODU GLIIXVLRQ
ZDV ILUVWO\ LQYHVWLJDWHG XVLQJ FDIIHLQH PJP/ 89 VSHFWUD RI WKH HWKDQRO DQG '062
XVHG LQ WKLV ZRUN ZHUH PHDVXUHG LQLWLDOO\ DQG LW ZDV REVHUYHG WKDW WKH\ KDG QR 89
DEVRUEDQFHDFURVVWKHZDYHOHQJWKVRIDOOWKHGLIIXVDQWV)LJXUHVKRZHGWKHGLIIXVLRQRI
PJP/FDIIHLQHWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHZLWKDQGYYHWKDQRODQGZLWK
'062RQO\WKHGDWDDWLVVKRZQDVWKHGDWDDWDQGWKHZHUHVLPLODU7KH
GLIIXVLRQGDWDZDVILWWHGWR(TXDWLRQZLWKFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVDQG5!
7KH HQKDQFHPHQW LQ GLIIXVLRQ EDVHG RQ WKH SHUPHDELOLW\ GDWD REWDLQHG IURP WKH ILWWLQJV
HQKDQFHPHQWLVGHILQHGDV
௧௬௪௧ି௧௬௪௧௨௧
௧௬௪௧௨௧
DUHVKRZQ
LQ )LJXUH 6WDWLVWLFDOO\ WKHUH ZDV QR VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ WKH HQKDQFHPHQW
REWDLQHGIRUDQGHWKDQROZKLFKSURPRWHGWKHGLIIXVLRQRIFDIIHLQHE\DQDYHUDJHRI
7KHUHZDVDVLJQLILFDQWHQKDQFHPHQWLQWKHSUHVHQFHRIHWKDQROIRUZKLFK
WKHUH ZDV DQ LQFUHDVH RI ,Q FRQWUDVW '062 KDG D YHU\ OLPLWHG HIIHFW ZLWK D
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU3K\VLFRFKHPLFDO(QKDQFHPHQWRIWKH0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
PHDQLQFUHDVHRIWKHUHZDVQRVLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHLQWKHWKUHHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRI
'062
(
&DIIHLQH
(
&DIIHLQH
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUPROP
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUPROP
(
(
&DIIHLQH LQHWKDQRO
&DIIHLQH LQHWKDQRO
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
7LPHV
7LPHV
D
E
(
&DIIHLQH
(
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUPROP
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUPROP
(
&DIIHLQH LQHWKDQRO
(
(
(
(
(
(
&DIIHLQH
(
&DIIHLQH LQ'062
(
(
(
(
(
(
7LPHV
7LPHV
F
G
)LJXUH7KHSK\VLFRFKHPLFDOHQKDQFHPHQWRIFDIIHLQHGLIIXVLRQE\DEDQGFHWKDQRODQGG
'062WKHH[SHULPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQWULSOLFDWHVDQGDQDYHUDJHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRIFDIIHLQHZLWKHWKDQROILOOHG
UHGVTXDUHV'062RSHQUHGVTXDUHVDQGZLWKRXWILOOHGEODFNVTXDUHVLQWKHDFFHSWRUFKDPEHUZDVSORWWHG
DJDLQVWWLPHZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUV7KHGLIIXVLRQZDVILWWHGZLWKWKHFRQWLQXRXVGLIIXVLRQPRGHOLQVROLGOLQHZLWK
FRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVLQGDVKOLQHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU3K\VLFRFKHPLFDO(QKDQFHPHQWRIWKH0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
(QKDQFHPHQW
HWKDQRO
HWKDQRO HWKDQRO '062 '062 '062
)LJXUH7KHSK\VLFRFKHPLFDOHQKDQFHPHQWEDVHGRQWKHSHUPHDELOLW\REWDLQHGIURP)LJXUHRIWKH
YYHWKDQRODQGYY'062RQWKHGLIIXVLRQRIPJP/FDIIHLQH(UURUVEDUVDUH
WKHFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVRIWKUHHUHSHDWV
7KHGLIIXVLRQRIWKHPRGHOGLIIXVDQWVZLWKHWKDQRO'062
7KH SHUPHDELOLW\ PHDVXUHPHQWV RI WKH PRGHO GLIIXVDQWV ZLWK HWKDQRO'062 PL[WXUHV ZHUH
FDUULHG RXW XVLQJ D VLPLODU SURFHGXUHWRWKDW IRUFDIIHLQH $ DTXHRXV HWKDQRO VROXWLRQ
ZDVXVHGDVLWKDGSURYHQWREHPRVWHIIHFWLYHLQSURPRWLQJWKHGLIIXVLRQRIFDIIHLQHDQG
'062 ZDV DOVR XVHG DV D FRPSDULVRQ )LJXUH VKRZHG WKH GLIIXVLRQ RI WKH ILYH PRGHO
GLIIXVDQWV DQG WKH GLIIXVLRQ GDWD ZHUH ILWWHG WR WKH FRQWLQXRXV GLIIXVLRQ PRGHO ZLWK FRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVIRUDOOWKHGDWDILWWLQJV5!
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU3K\VLFRFKHPLFDO(QKDQFHPHQWRIWKH0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUPROP
(
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUPROP
(
3DUDFHWDPRO
(
(
3DUDFHWDPRO
(
3DUDFHWDPROLQHWKDQRO
3DUDFHWDPROLQ'062
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
7LPHV
7LPHV
DE
(
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUPROP
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUPROP
(
7KHRSK\OOLQH
(
7KHRSK\OOLQH LQHWKDQRO
(
(
(
(
(
7KHRSK\OOLQH
7KHRSK\OOLQH LQ'062
(
(
(
(
(
(
7LPHV
7LPHV
FG
(
$F\FORYLU (
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUPROP
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUPROP
(
$F\FORYLU LQHWKDQRO
(
(
(
(
(
$F\FORYLU (
$F\FORYLU LQ'062
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
7LPHV
7LPHV
HI
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU3K\VLFRFKHPLFDO(QKDQFHPHQWRIWKH0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
(
1DGRORO
(
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUPROP
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUPROP
(
1DGROROLQHWKDQRO
(
(
(
(
(
(
1DGRORO
(
1DGROROLQ'062
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
7LPHV
7LPHV
JK
(
$PSKRWHULFLQ %
(
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUPROP
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUPROP
(
$PSKRWHULFLQ %LQHWKDQRO
(
(
(
(
$PSKRWHULFLQ %
(
$PSKRWHULFLQ %LQ'062
(
(
(
(
(
(
7LPHV
7LPHV
LM
)LJXUH7KHSK\VLFRFKHPLFDOHQKDQFHPHQWRIPROHFXODUGLIIXVLRQE\HWKDQRO'062DSDUDFHWDPROLQ
HWKDQROESDUDFHWDPROLQ'062FWKHRSK\OOLQHLQHWKDQROGWKHRSK\OOLQHLQ'062H
DF\FORYLULQHWKDQROIDF\FORYLULQ'062JQDGROROLQHWKDQROKQDGROROLQ'062L
DPSKRWHULFLQ%LQHWKDQRODQGMDPSKRWHULFLQ%LQ'0627KHH[SHULPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQ
WULSOLFDWHVDQGDQDYHUDJHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRIWKHGLIIXVDQWZLWKHWKDQROILOOHGUHGVTXDUHV'062RSHQUHGVTXDUHV
DQGZLWKRXWILOOHGEODFNVTXDUHVLQWKHDFFHSWRUZDVSORWWHGDJDLQVWWLPHZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUV7KHGLIIXVLRQZDV
ILWWHGZLWKWKHFRQWLQXRXVGLIIXVLRQPRGHOLQVROLGOLQHZLWKFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVLQGDVKOLQHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU3K\VLFRFKHPLFDO(QKDQFHPHQWRIWKH0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
,Q )LJXUH WKH PHDVXUHG YDOXHV RI WKH SHUPHDELOLW\ DUH VKRZQ IRU HDFK GLIIXVDQW LQ WKH
RUGHU RI WKHLU PROHFXODU ZHLJKWV (WKDQRO GLG QRW VLJQLILFDQWO\ LQFUHDVH WKH SHUPHDELOLW\ RI
SDUDFHWDPRO DV LW GLG IRU FDIIHLQH KRZHYHU LW HIIHFWLYHO\ SURPRWHG WKH GLIIXVLRQ RI
WKHRSK\OOLQH E\ QDGRORO E\ DF\FORYLU E\ DQG
DPSKRWHULFLQ%E\+RZHYHUWKHHIIHFWRIWKH'062ZDVPXFKOHVVWKDQWKDWRI
HWKDQRO ZLWK DQ HQKDQFHPHQW RI IRU WKH SDUDFHWDPRO DQG QR VLJQLILFDQW
HQKDQFHPHQW IRU WKH RWKHU GLIIXVDQWV 7KH UHVXOWV LQGLFDWH WKDW WKH ZLGHO\ XVHG HWKDQRO DQG
'062GLGQRWQHFHVVDULO\HQKDQFHGLIIXVLRQWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHV
&RQWURO
(WKDQRO
'062
3HUPHDELOLW\î··FPV
3DUDFHWDPRO
7KHRSK\OOLQH
&DIIHLQH
$F\FORYLU
1DGRORO
$PSKRWHULFLQ%
)LJXUH7KHSHUPHDELOLW\RIWKHPRGHOGLIIXVDQWVZLWKZLWKRXWGLIIXVLRQHQKDQFHUVHWKDQRO'062
REWDLQHGIURPWKHILWWLQJVLQ)LJXUH7KHHUURUEDUVDUHWKHFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVRIWKUHHUHSHDWV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU3K\VLFRFKHPLFDO(QKDQFHPHQWRIWKH0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
7KHLPSDFWRIHWKDQRO'062RQWKHPHFKDQLFDOSURSHUWLHVRIWKHOLSRVRPH
7KH <RXQJ¶V PRGXOXV DQG KDUGQHVV RI OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQHV DIWHU LPPHUVLRQ LQ WKH 3%6
VROXWLRQ DQG HWKDQRO DQG '062 VROXWLRQV ZDV REWDLQHG E\ $)0 DW URRP
WHPSHUDWXUH R& 7KHVH OLTXLGV ZHUH H[SHFWHGWR LQWHUUXSWWKH PRUSKRORJ\ VWUXFWXUHV
DQG LQIOXHQFH WKH IOXLGLW\ RI WKH OLSLG ELOD\HU :LOOLDPV DQG %DUU\ 5HEHFFD 1RWPDQ
DQGWKXVOHDGWRLQFUHDVHGSHUPHDELOLW\(WKDQROGLGQRWUHGXFHWKH<RXQJ¶V PRGXOXV
RIWKHOLSRVRPHVLJQLILFDQWO\ZKLOHLWGHFUHDVHGE\LQ'062DVVKRZQLQ
)LJXUH7KHKDUGQHVVVKRZHGWKHVDPHWUHQGLQWKDWWKHGHFUHDVHE\WKHHWKDQROZDVQRW
VLJQLILFDQW ZKLOH '062 UHVXOWHG LQ D UHGXFWLRQ RI )LJXUH 6LQFH WKH
PHFKDQLFDO SURSHUWLHV VKRXOG EH VHQVLWLYH WR WKH PRUSKRORJ\ WKH GDWD VXJJHVW WKLV LV QRW D
VLJQLILFDQWIDFWRULQGHWHUPLQLQJWKHH[WHQWRIWKHSHUPHDELOLW\HQKDQFHPHQW
<RXQJ
V0RGXOXV03D
3%6
(WKDQRO
'062
)LJXUH7KH<RXQJ¶VPRGXOXVRIWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHDIWHUSUHWUHDWHGZLWK3%6VROXWLRQHWKDQRODQG
'062VROXWLRQ7KHHUURUEDUVUHSUHVHQWWKHFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVIURPPHDVXUHPHQWV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU3K\VLFRFKHPLFDO(QKDQFHPHQWRIWKH0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
+DUGQHVVN3D
3%6
(WKDQRO
'062
)LJXUH7KHKDUGQHVVRIWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHDIWHUSUHWUHDWHGZLWKZDWHUHWKDQRODQG'062
VROXWLRQ7KHHUURUEDUVUHSUHVHQWWKHFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVIURPPHDVXUHPHQWV
7KHLPSDFWRIHWKDQRORQWKHVL]HRIWKHOLSRVRPH
$V HWKDQRO DSSHDUV WR LQGXFH WKH PRVW GLIIXVLRQ HQKDQFHPHQW WKH VL]H GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WKH
OLSRVRPHVH[WUXGHGWKURXJKWKHQPDQGWKHQPSRO\FDUERQDWHPHPEUDQHILOWHUDQG
WKRVH LQ WKH DQG HWKDQRO VROXWLRQ ZHUH PHDVXUHG WR H[DPLQH LI WKH OLSRVRPH
UHPDLQHGLQWDFWZLWKHWKDQRO,Q)LJXUHDWKHOLSRVRPHLQHWKDQRODIWHUH[WUXVLRQ
WKURXJK DQ QP ILOWHU KDG D VLPLODU VL]H ZLWK D VOLJKWO\ QDUURZHU GLVWULEXWLRQ DQG WKH
OLSRVRPH LQ HWKDQRO VKRZHG D VOLJKWO\ VPDOOHU VL]H RI QP FRPSDUHG ZLWKRXW
HWKDQRO 6LPLODUO\ RQO\ VPDOO FKDQJHV ZHUH REVHUYHG DIWHU H[WUXVLRQ WKURXJK WKH QP
PHPEUDQH ILOWHUDVVKRZQ LQ )LJXUHE$VWDWLVWLFDODQDO\VLV LQGLFDWHGWKDWWKHHWKDQRO
GLGQRWKDYHDVLJQLILFDQWLPSDFWRQWKHVL]HGLVWULEXWLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU3K\VLFRFKHPLFDO(QKDQFHPHQWRIWKH0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
QP
QPLQHWKDQRO
QPLQHWKDQRO
,QWHQVLW\
/LSRVRPHVL]HQP
D
QP
QPLQHWKDQRO
,QWHQVLW\
QPLQHWKDQRO
/LSRVRPHVL]HQP
E
)LJXUH6L]HDQGVL]HGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKH(3&OLSRVRPHWUHDWHGZLWKHWKDQROPHDVXUHGE\+336D
OLSRVRPHH[WUXGHGWKURXJKWKHQPSRO\FDUERQDWHPHPEUDQHILOWHUDQGEOLSRVRPHH[WUXGHGWKURXJKWKH
QPSRO\FDUERQDWHPHPEUDQHILOWHU$OOWKHPHDVXUHPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQWULSOLFDWHVDQGDQDYHUDJHOLJKW
LQWHQVLW\GLVWULEXWLRQZDVSORWWHG
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU3K\VLFRFKHPLFDO(QKDQFHPHQWRIWKH0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
7KHGLIIXVLRQRISDUDFHWDPROZLWKFDIIHLQHWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
+3/&FDOLEUDWLRQRISDUDFHWDPROZLWKFDIIHLQHDWWKHȜPD[RISDUDFHWDPRO
$ W\SLFDO FKURPDWRJUDP RI D VWDQGDUG DTXHRXV VROXWLRQ RI PJP/ SDUDFHWDPRO ZLWK
FDIIHLQHVFDQQHGE\+3/&DWWKHȜPD[RISDUDFHWDPROLVVKRZQLQ )LJXUH7KHUHWHQWLRQ
WLPHV ZHUH PLQ IRU SDUDFHWDPRO DQG PLQ IRU FDIIHLQH 7KH SHDN DUHD RI
SDUDFHWDPRO ZDV SORWWHG DV D IXQFWLRQ RI FRQFHQWUDWLRQ LQ )LJXUH WKH FDOLEUDWLRQ VORSH
ZDVP$8PLQP/PJZLWKDQ5!
)LJXUH$QH[DPSOHRIWKHVWDQGDUGVROXWLRQRIPJP/SDUDFHWDPROLQPJP/FDIIHLQHVFDQQHGLQ
+3/&DWQPWKHSHDNDWPLQLVWKDWRISDUDFHWDPRODQGPLQLVWKDWRIFDIIHLQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU3K\VLFRFKHPLFDO(QKDQFHPHQWRIWKH0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
7KHGLIIXVLRQRISDUDFHWDPROZLWKFDIIHLQH
7KHGLIIXVLRQRISDUDFHWDPROPJP/ZLWKDQGPJP/FDIIHLQHZDVFDUULHGRXW
DIWHUSUHWUHDWPHQWZLWKWKHVDPHVROXWLRQDVWKDWIRUGRQRUFKDPEHUV7KHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRI
WKH SDUDFHWDPRO LQ WKH GRQRU FKDPEHUV ZDV DQDO\VHG E\ +3/& DQG SORWWHG LQ )LJXUH ZLWKDFRQWUROGLIIXVLRQRISDUDFHWDPROZLWKRXWFDIIHLQH7KHGLIIXVLRQGDWDZHUHWKHQILWWHG
ZLWKWKHFRQWLQXRXVGLIIXVLRQPRGHOZLWK5!WRREWDLQWKHSHUPHDELOLW\YDOXHV
3HDNDUHDP$8PLQ
&RQFHQWUDWLRQPJP/
)LJXUH7KHFDOLEUDWLRQRISDUDFHWDPROLQFDIIHLQHE\+3/&DWQP7KHPHDVXUHPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQ
WULSOLFDWHVDQGDQDYHUDJHSHDNDUHDZDVSORWWHGDJDLQVWFRQFHQWUDWLRQZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUV
,Q)LJXUHWKHSHUPHDELOLW\RIWKHSDUDFHWDPROZLWKDQGZLWKRXWFDIIHLQHREWDLQHGIURP
WKHILWWLQJV LQ)LJXUHDUHVKRZQ7KHUHZDVDVLJQLILFDQWGHFUHDVHRILQWKH
SHUPHDELOLW\ RI SDUDFHWDPRO ZLWK PJP/ FDIIHLQH FRPSDUHG ZLWKRXW $ JUHDWHU
FRQFHQWUDWLRQRIPJP/FDIIHLQHUHVXOWHGLQDIXUWKHUGHFUHDVHLQWKHSHUPHDELOLW\RI
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU3K\VLFRFKHPLFDO(QKDQFHPHQWRIWKH0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
(
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUPROP
(
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUPROP
:LWKRXWFDIIHLQH
:LWKPJP/ FDIIHLQH
(
(
(
(
(
:LWKRXWFDIIHLQH
:LWKPJP/FDIIHLQH
(
(
(
(
(
7LPHV
7LPHV
D
E
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUPROP
(
:LWKRXWFDIIHLQH
:LWKPJP/FDIIHLQH
(
(
(
(
(
7LPHV
F
)LJXUH7KHGLIIXVLRQRIPJP/SDUDFHWDPROZLWKRXWFDIIHLQHDQGZLWKDPJP/FDIIHLQHEPJP/
FDIIHLQHDQGFPJP/FDIIHLQHWKHH[SHULPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQWULSOLFDWHVDQGDQDYHUDJHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRI
SDUDFHWDPROLQWKHDFFHSWRUFKDPEHUZDVSORWWHGDJDLQVWWLPHZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUV7KHGLIIXVLRQGDWDLQILOOHG
VTXDUHVZDVILWWHGZLWKFRQWLQXRXVGLIIXVLRQPRGHOLQVROLGOLQHZLWKFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVLQGDVKOLQHV
SDUDFHWDPRO E\ ZKLFK DOVR PHDQW WKDW WKH SHUPHDELOLW\ RI SDUDFHWDPRO ZDV
QHDUO\ KDOI RI WKDW ZLWKRXW FDIIHLQH 7KHUH ZDV QR IXUWKHU VLJQLILFDQW UHGXFWLRQ RI WKH
SHUPHDELOLW\ ZKHQ WKH FDIIHLQH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ LQFUHDVHG WR PJP/ 7KLV UHVXOW KDV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU3K\VLFRFKHPLFDO(QKDQFHPHQWRIWKH0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
LQGLFDWHGDQHJDWLYHV\QHUJHWLFHIIHFWRIFDIIHLQHRQWKHGLIIXVLRQRISDUDFHWDPROWKURXJKWKH
OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH DQG WKH LPSDFW ZDV GHSHQGHQWRQ WKH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI WKH FDIIHLQH IRU
YDOXHVOHVVWKDQaPJP/
3HUPHDELOLW\îFPV
1RFDIIHLQH
PJP/
PJP/
PJP/
)LJXUH7KHSHUPHDELOLW\RIPJP/SDUDFHWDPROLQDQGPJP/FDIIHLQHZLWKRXWFDIIHLQHREWDLQHGIURP
WKHILWWLQJVLQ)LJXUH7KHHUURUEDUVDUHWKHFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVRIWKUHHUHSHDWV
7KHGLIIXVLRQRIFDIIHLQHZLWKSDUDFHWDPRO
7KH GLIIXVLRQ RI FDIIHLQH DW DQG PJP/ ZLWK SDUDFHWDPRO PJP/ FRXOG EH
REWDLQHG IURP DQDO\VLQJ WKH UHVXOWV LQ VHFWLRQ E\ WKH +3/& VFDQQLQJ DW WKH ȜPD[ RI
FDIIHLQH$W\SLFDOFKURPDWRJUDPRIFDIIHLQHZLWKSDUDFHWDPROVFDQQHG E\+3/&DW ȜPD[RI
FDIIHLQH LVVKRZQ LQ)LJXUH7KHSHDNDUHDRIFDIIHLQHZDVSORWWHGDVDIXQFWLRQRIWKH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU3K\VLFRFKHPLFDO(QKDQFHPHQWRIWKH0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
FRQFHQWUDWLRQ DV VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH 7KH FDOLEUDWLRQ VORSH ZDV P$8PLQP/PJ
ZLWKDQ5!
)LJXUH$QH[DPSOHRIWKHVWDQGDUGVROXWLRQRIPJP/FDIIHLQHLQPJP/SDUDFHWDPROVFDQQHGLQ
+3/&DWQPWKHSHDNDWPLQLVWKDWRISDUDFHWDPRODQGPLQLVWKDWRIFDIIHLQH
7KH GLIIXVLRQ RI FDIIHLQH ZLWK WKH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI SDUDFHWDPRO REWDLQHG E\ +3/& DW QP LVSORWWHGLQ)LJXUHEDVHGRQWKHFDOLEUDWLRQSURILOHRIFDIIHLQH7KHGLIIXVLRQGDWD
ZHUHILWWHGWRWKHFRQWLQXRXVGLIIXVLRQPRGHOZLWK5!WRREWDLQWKHSHUPHDELOLW\YDOXHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU3K\VLFRFKHPLFDO(QKDQFHPHQWRIWKH0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
3HDNDUHDP$8PLQ
&RQFHQWUDWLRQPJP/
)LJXUH7KHFDOLEUDWLRQRIFDIIHLQHZLWKSDUDFHWDPROE\+3/&DWQP7KHPHDVXUHPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQ
WULSOLFDWHVDQGDQDYHUDJHSHDNDUHDZDVSORWWHGDJDLQVWFRQFHQWUDWLRQZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUV
,Q )LJXUH WKH SHUPHDELOLW\ YDOXHV RI WKH FDIIHLQH ZLWK SDUDFHWDPRO REWDLQHG IURP WKH
ILWWLQJV DUH VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH $W WKH FRQILGHQFH OHYHO WKHUH ZDV QR VLJQLILFDQW
HIIHFWRISDUDFHWDPRORQWKHGLIIXVLRQRIWKHWKUHHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIFDIIHLQH7KLVUHVXOWKDV
LQGLFDWHG DOWKRXJK FDIIHLQH FRXOG UHWDUG WKH GLIIXVLRQ RI SDUDFHWDPRO WKH GLIIXVLRQ RI
FDIIHLQHZDVQRWLQIOXHQFHGE\SDUDFHWDPRO
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU3K\VLFRFKHPLFDO(QKDQFHPHQWRIWKH0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
(
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUPROP
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUPROP
(
PJP/ FDIIHLQH ZLWK
SDUDFHWDPRO
(
(
(
PJP/FDIIHLQH
ZLWKSDUDFHWDPRO
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
7LPHV
7LPHV
DE
(
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUPROP
PJP/FDIIHLQH ZLWK
SDUDFHWDPRO
(
(
(
(
(
7LPHV
F
)LJXUH7KHGLIIXVLRQRIDPJP/FDIIHLQHZLWKSDUDFHWDPROEPJP/FDIIHLQHZLWKSDUDFHWDPRODQGF
PJP/FDIIHLQHZLWKSDUDFHWDPROWKHH[SHULPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQWULSOLFDWHVDQGDQDYHUDJHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRI
FDIIHLQHLQWKHDFFHSWRUFKDPEHUZDVSORWWHGDJDLQVWWLPHZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUV7KHGLIIXVLRQGDWDLQILOOHGVTXDUHV
ZDVILWWHGZLWKFRQWLQXRXVGLIIXVLRQPRGHOLQVROLGOLQHZLWKFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVLQGDVKOLQHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU3K\VLFRFKHPLFDO(QKDQFHPHQWRIWKH0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
3HUPHDELOLW\îFPV
:LWKSDUDFHWDPRO
:LWKRXWSDUDFHWDPRO
PJP/
PJP/
PJP/
)LJXUH7KHSHUPHDELOLW\RIDQGPJP/FDIIHLQHZLWKSDUDFHWDPROREWDLQHGIURPWKHILWWLQJVLQ)LJXUH
7KHHUURUEDUVDUHWKHFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVRIWKUHHUHSHDWV
6800$5<
,Q WKLV FKDSWHUWKH UHVXOWV RI DQ LQYHVWLJDWLRQ RI SRWHQWLDO SK\VLFRFKHPLFDO HQKDQFHPHQWRI
PROHFXODUGLIIXVLRQDUHGHVFULEHGDQGFDQEHVXPPDULVHGDV
x
7KH SHUPHDELOLWLHV RI ILYH PRGHO GLIIXVDQWV ZHUH PHDVXUHG XVLQJ WKH FRQWLQXRXV
PHWKRGGHYHORSHGIRUFDIIHLQH
x
7KHSK\VLFRFKHPLFDOHQKDQFHPHQWRIWKHGLIIXVLRQZDVFDUULHGRXWE\DGGLQJHWKDQRO
DQG '062 LQWR WKH SUHWUHDWPHQW DQG GRQRU VROXWLRQ HWKDQRO VLJQLILFDQWO\
SURPRWHGWKHGLIIXVLRQRIFDIIHLQHDQGWKHRSK\OOLQH E\ DQG
ZLWKDPRGHUDWHHQKDQFHPHQWRIWKHRWKHUGLIIXVDQWV,QWKHFDVHRI'062WKH
SHUPHDELOLW\RISDUDFHWDPROZDVLQFUHDVHGE\ZKLOHLWKDGQRVLJQLILFDQW
LPSDFWRQWKHRWKHUGLIIXVDQWV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU3K\VLFRFKHPLFDO(QKDQFHPHQWRIWKH0ROHFXODU'LIIXVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
x
7KHPHFKDQLFDOSURSHUWLHVRIWKHOLSRVRPHZLWKDQGZLWKRXWHWKDQRODQG'062ZHUH
PHDVXUHG E\ $)0 DQG '062 GHFUHDVHG ERWK WKH <RXQJ¶V 0RGXOXV DQG
KDUGQHVV RI WKH OLSRVRPH ZKLOH HWKDQRO KDG QR VLJQLILFDQW HIIHFW 7KH VL]H DQG VL]H
GLVWULEXWLRQRIWKH OLSRVRPHZLWKHWKDQROVKRZHGQRVLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFH LQGLFDWLQJ
WKDWWKHOLSRVRPHUHPDLQHGLQWDFW
x
7KH GLIIXVLRQ RI SDUDFHWDPRO ZLWK FDIIHLQH ZDV FDUULHG RXWWR LQYHVWLJDWH D SRVVLEOH
V\QHUJHWLFHIIHFWRIWKHWZRGLIIXVDQWV7KHUHVXOWVVKRZHGWKDWFDIIHLQHUHWDUGHGWKH
GLIIXVLRQ RI SDUDFHWDPRO DQG WKH GHFUHDVH RI WKH SHUPHDELOLW\ GHSHQGHG RQ WKH
FRQFHQWUDWLRQRIWKHUHWDUGDQW,QFRQWUDVWSDUDFHWDPROKDGQRVLJQLILFDQWHIIHFWRQWKH
GLIIXVLRQRIFDIIHLQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU7KH'LIIXVLRQRIWKH73V7KURXJKWKH/LSRVRPH0HPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&+$37(5 7+( ',))86,21 2) 7+( 736 7+528*+
7+(/,32620(0(0%5$1(
,1752'8&7,21
7HD SRO\SKHQROV LQFOXGLQJ (SLFDWHFKLQ (& HSLJDOORFDWHFKLQ (*& HSLFDWHFKLQ JDOODWH
(&*DQGHSLJDOORFDWHFKLQJDOODWH(*&*DUHRIJURZLQJLQWHUHVWHVSHFLDOO\(*&*GXHWR
LWVXQLTXHKHDOWKEHQHILWRIDQWLEDFWHULDDQWLR[LGDQWDQGDQWLFDQFHUDFWLYLW\+RZHYHUWKH\
VXIIHUIURPSRRUELRDYDLODELOLW\LIWDNHQRUDOO\DQGWKHVSHFLILFPHFKDQLVPVLQYROYHGZLWKWKH
KHDOWK EHQHILWVWLOOUHPDLQXQFOHDU +DVKLPRWRHWDOLQYHVWLJDWHGWKHLQWHUDFWLRQRI73VZLWK
OLSLGELOD\HUVE\XVLQJDOLSRVRPHVXVSHQVLRQ+DVKLPRWR.XPD]DZDHWDODQGDKLJK
DIILQLW\ RI (&* DQG (*&* WR WKH OLSLG PROHFXOH VXFK WKDW LW ZDV VXJJHVWHG WKDW WKH\ PD\
SHUWXUEWKHPHPEUDQH VWUXFWXUH0ROHFXODUG\QDPLFVVLPXODWLRQVKRZHGWKDW(*&*KDVWKH
VWURQJHVWDIILQLW\WRWKHOLSLGELOD\HUDPRQJDOOWKH73V6LUN%URZQHWDO6LUN%URZQ
HWDO7KHVHILQGLQJVGHPRQVWUDWHWKDWWKHKHDOWKEHQHILWDQGSRRUELRDYDLODELOLW\RIWKH
73VFRXOGEHDWWULEXWHGWRWKHLULQWHUDFWLRQVZLWKWKHOLSLGELOD\HUDQGLWLVRIJUHDWLQWHUHVWDQG
LPSRUWDQFHWRLQYHVWLJDWHWKHSHUPHDELOLW\RI73VWKURXJKVXFK PHPEUDQHV7KHUH KDV EHHQ
QR VXFK UHVHDUFK RQ WKH GLIIXVLRQ RI WKHVH 73V WKURXJK FHOO DUWLILFLDO PHPEUDQHV +HUH DQ
LQYHVWLJDWLRQ RI WKH SHUPHDELOLW\ RI WKH WHD SRO\SKHQROV WKURXJK WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH LV
GHVFULEHGLQFOXGLQJWKHLQWHUDFWLRQVEHWZHHQ(*&*DQGWKHOLSLGELOD\HUZKLFKSURYLGHVDQ
LQYLWURWRRO IRUGHYHORSLQJGLIIXVLRQHQKDQFHPHQWRI(*&*7KHDEVRUSWLRQ LVRWKHUPVDQG
DEVRUSWLRQNLQHWLFVRIWKH73VZHUHPHDVXUHGDQGDOVRWKHSHUPHDELOLWLHVRIWKH73VXVLQJWKH
FRQWLQXRXVGLIIXVLRQSURWRFROVHVWDEOLVKHGLQ&KDSWHU,QDGGLWLRQHWKDQRODQG'062ZHUH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU7KH'LIIXVLRQRIWKH73V7KURXJKWKH/LSRVRPH0HPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
VHOHFWHGDVSRWHQWLDOGLIIXVLRQHQKDQFHUV7KHS+RIWKHV\VWHPZDVDOVRDGMXVWHGLQRUGHUWR
DOWHU WKH LRQLVDWLRQ VWDWH RI WKH GLIIXVDQW LQ DQ DWWHPSW WR LPSURYH WKH SHUPHDELOLW\ 5DPDQ
VSHFWURVFRS\ DQG $)0 ZHUH XVHG WR LQYHVWLJDWH WKH LQWHUDFWLRQV EHWZHHQ (*&* DQG WKH
SKRVSKDWLG\OFKROLQH
5(68/76
89FDOLEUDWLRQRIWKH73V
7KHȜPD[RIWKH73VLQWKH89VSHFWURSKRWRPHWHUFRUUHVSRQGHGWRDQGQP
IRU (*&* (&* (& DQG (*& $ SORW LI WKH DEVRUEDQFH DV D IXQFWLRQ RI FRQFHQWUDWLRQ LV
VKRZQLQ)LJXUH7KHDEVRUSWLYLW\RIWKH73VZDVWKHQREWDLQHGE\OLQHDUILWWLQJDVOLVWHG
LQ7DEOH7KHFRHIILFLHQWRIGHWHUPLQDWLRQ5DUH!
7KHDEVRUSWLRQRIWKH73VE\WKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
7KHDEVRUSWLRQRIWKH73VZDVFDUULHGRXWE\LPPHUVLQJRIWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHVLQ
P/ RI HDFK 73 VROXWLRQ 7KH LQLWLDO FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI WKH 73 VROXWLRQV DUH PJPO IRU
(*&*PJP/IRU(&*PJP/IRU(&DQGPJP/IRU(*&$QDOLTXRWRI/
RIWKHVROXWLRQZDVVDPSOHGDWVDQGWKHQDWLQWHUYDOVRI
V XS WR V )LJXUH VKRZV WKH DPRXQW PRO RI WKH DEVRUEHG 73V SHU PJ RI
OLSRVRPH ZLWKLQ K 7KH DEVRUSWLRQ RI (&* DQG (*&* KDG WKH ODUJHVW YDOXHV
DQG î PRO ZHUH DEVRUEHG UHVSHFWLYHO\ DIWHU K 7KHUH ZDV D PRGHUDWH
DEVRUSWLRQRIWKH(&îPROIRUWKHVDPHWLPHSHULRGZKLFKZDVaRI
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU7KH'LIIXVLRQRIWKH73V7KURXJKWKH/LSRVRPH0HPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
WKHDPRXQWRI(&*DEVRUEHG7KHUHZDVQRVLJQLILFDQWDEVRUSWLRQRI(*&E\WKH OLSRVRPH
PHPEUDQH
(*&*
(&*
89$EVRUEDQFH
89$EVRUEDQFH
&RQFHQWUDWLRQPJP/
&RQFHQWUDWLRQPJP/
D
E
(*&
89$EVRUEDQFH
89$EVRUEDQFH
(&
&RQFHQWUDWLRQPJP/
&RQFHQWUDWLRQPJP/
F
G
)LJXUH89FDOLEUDWLRQRID(*&*E(&*F(&DQGG(*&$OOWKHPHDVXUHPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQ
WULSOLFDWHVDQGWKHDYHUDJH89DEVRUEDQFHZDVSORWWHGDJDLQVWWLPHZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU7KH'LIIXVLRQRIWKH73V7KURXJKWKH/LSRVRPH0HPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
7KH DEVRUSWLRQ NLQHWLFV IRU WKRVH PROHFXOHV WKDW H[KLELWHG VLJQLILFDQW DEVRUSWLRQ LH (&*
(*&* DQG (& ZHUH PHDVXUHG WR REWDLQ WKH DEVRUSWLRQ UDWH FRQVWDQW ND ZKHUH ILUVW RUGHU
NLQHWLFVZDVDVVXPHG7KHDEVRUEHG73VZHUHILWWHGWR(TXDWLRQDVVKRZQLQ)LJXUH
ZLWK57KHILUVWRUGHUDEVRUSWLRQUDWHFRQVWDQWVIRU(*&*(&*DQG(&DUHOLVWHGLQ
7DEOHZKHUHVWDWLVWLFDOO\N(*&*DQGN(&LVJUHDWHUWKDQN(&*ZKLOHWKHUHZDVQR
VLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQN(*&*DQGN(&WKHVXEVFULSWVUHIHUWRWKHSDUWLFXODU73V7KXV
WKHDEVRUSWLRQRI(*&*DQG(&E\WKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHLVPRUHUDSLGWKDQWKDWRI(&*
7DEOH7KH89DEVRUSWLYLW\RIWKHIRXU73VDQGWKHLUFRHIILFLHQWRIGHWHUPLQDWLRQ5
89DEVRUSWLYLW\
&RHIILFLHQWRIGHWHUPLQDWLRQ5 (*&*
(&*
(&
(*&
$EVRUSWLRQRIWHDSRO\SKHQROVE\SHUPJRI
OLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHPJ
(
(*&*
(
(&*
(&
(
(*&
(
(
(
(
(
7LPHV
)LJXUH7KHDEVRUSWLRQRIWKHIRXUWHDSRO\SKHQROVE\SHUPJRIOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHZLWKLQKRXUVOLSRVRPH
PHPEUDQHVZHUHSODFHGLQWKHPOVROXWLRQRIHDFKWHDSRO\SKHQRO(UURUEDUVUHSUHVHQWVWDQGDUGHUURURIWKUHH
UHSHDWV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
$EVRUEHGDPRXQWRI(&*E\WKH
OLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHVPJ
$EVRUEHGDPRXQWRI(*&*E\WKH
OLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHVPJ
&KDSWHU7KH'LIIXVLRQRIWKH73V7KURXJKWKH/LSRVRPH0HPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
(*&*
(&*
7LPHV
7LPHV
DE
$EVRUEHGDPRXQWRI(&E\WKH
OLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHVPJ
(&
7LPHV
F
)LJXUH7KHDEVRUSWLRQNLQHWLFVRID(*&*E(&*DQGF(&WKHDEVRUEHGDPRXQWRIWKHWKUHH73VIURP
)LJXUH7KHVROLGOLQHVDUHWKHEHVWILWVWR(TXDWLRQZLWKWKHFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVVKRZQDVWKHGDVKOLQHV
7DEOH7KHILUVWRUGHUDEVRUSWLRQFRQVWDQWNDSDUWLWLRQFRHIILFLHQW.LQQ2FWDQRO3%6V\VWHPDQGWKHFRHIILFLHQW
RIGHWHUPLQDWLRQ5
(&*
(*&*
(&
(*&
NDî V .
5
SDUWLWLRQFRHIILFLHQWGDWDIURP+DVKLPRWR.XPD]DZDHWDO
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU7KH'LIIXVLRQRIWKH73V7KURXJKWKH/LSRVRPH0HPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
7KHLQIOXHQFHRIWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRI(*&*RQLWVDEVRUSWLRQLVRWKHUPV
7KH DEVRUSWLRQ RI (*&* E\ WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH ZDV PHDVXUHG DW GLIIHUHQW
FRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIDQGPJP/7KHH[SHULPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGDVGHVFULEHG
SUHYLRXVO\LQ6HFWLRQE\LPPHUVLQJWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHVLQWKH(*&*VROXWLRQ
DQGDQDOLTXRWRI/WKHVROXWLRQZHUHVDPSOHGDWWLPHLQWHUYDOVRI
VDQGWKHQDWLQWHUYDOVRI VXSWRV7KHDEVRUEHG(*&*SHUPJRI
OLSRVRPHIRUHDFKFRQFHQWUDWLRQLVSORWWHGDVDIXQFWLRQRIWLPHLQ)LJXUH
(
(*&*DEVRUEHGE\SHUPJRIOLSRVRPHPJ
PJP/
PJP/
(
PJP/
PJP/
(
PJP/
(
(
(
(
(
7LPHV
)LJXUH$EVRUSWLRQRI(*&*DWGLIIHUHQWFRQFHQWUDWLRQVE\SHUPJRIOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHOLSRVRPH
PHPEUDQHVZHUHLPPHUVHGLQWKHPOVROXWLRQRIHDFK(*&*VROXWLRQ(UURUEDUVUHSUHVHQWVWDQGDUGHUURURIWKUHH
UHSHDWV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU7KH'LIIXVLRQRIWKH73V7KURXJKWKH/LSRVRPH0HPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
7KH DEVRUSWLRQ NLQHWLFV RI WKH (*&* DW GLIIHUHQW FRQFHQWUDWLRQV ZHUH FDUULHG RXWWRREWDLQ
WKH DEVRUSWLRQ FRQVWDQW N DV GHVFULEHG EHIRUH 7KH DEVRUEHG (*&* ZHUH ILWWHG WR (TXDWLRQ
DVVKRZQLQ)LJXUHZLWK57KHILUVWRUGHUDEVRUSWLRQFRQVWDQWVRI(*&*DUH
OLVWHGLQ7DEOHZKHUHVWDWLVWLFDOO\WKHUHZDVQRVLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQWKHYDOXHV
DWWKHGLIIHUHQWFRQFHQWUDWLRQV
PJP/
7LPHV
7LPHV
D
E
$EVRUEHGDPRXQWRI(*&*E\WKH
OLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHVPJ
PJP/
PJP/
7LPHV
PJP/
$EVRUEHGDPRXQWRI(*&*E\WKH
OLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHVPJ
$EVRUEHGDPRXQWRI(*&*E\WKH
OLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHVPJ
$EVRUEHGDPRXQWRI(*&*E\WKH
OLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHVPJ
7LPHV
FG
)LJXUH7KHDEVRUSWLRQNLQHWLFVRI(*&*DWDPJP/EPJP/FPJP/DQGGPJP/WKH
DEVRUEHGDPRXQWRIWKH(*&*DWGLIIHUHQWFRQFHQWUDWLRQVIURP)LJXUH7KHVROLGOLQHVDUHWKHEHVWILWVWR
(TXDWLRQZLWKWKHFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVVKRZQDVWKHGDVKOLQHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU7KH'LIIXVLRQRIWKH73V7KURXJKWKH/LSRVRPH0HPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
7DEOH7KHILUVWRUGHUDEVRUSWLRQFRQVWDQWNDQGWKHFRHIILFLHQWRIGHWHUPLQDWLRQ5
NDî V PJPO
PJPO
PJPO
PJPO
PJPO
5
7KHGLIIXVLRQRI(&*(&DQG(*&WKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
7KH GLIIXVLRQ RI (&* ZDV PHDVXUHG DIWHU WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQHV ZHUH LPPHUVHG LQ WKH
SUHWUHDWPHQWVROXWLRQIRUKZLWKDFRQFHQWUDWLRQPJP/HTXDOWRWKDWWREHXVHGLQ
WKHGRQRUFKDPEHU7KHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQWKHDFFHSWRUFKDPEHUVDUHSORWWHGDVDIXQFWLRQRI
WLPHLQ)LJXUH7KHUHZDVQRREYLRXVGLIIXVLRQRI(&*WKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
VLQFH WKH FRQFHQWUDWLRQV RI î PROP LQ WKH DFFHSWRU FKDPEHUV FRUUHVSRQGWR
WKHUHOHDVHRIWKH(&*WKDWZDVDEVRUEHGîPROPDIWHUWKHSUHWUHDWPHQW
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRUFKDPEHU
PROP
(&*GLIIXVLRQ
(&*UHOHDVH
7LPHV
)LJXUH7KHGLIIXVLRQDQGUHOHDVHRI(&*DIWHUWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHZDVSUHWUHDWHGZLWKWKHPJPO(&*
RYHUQLJKW7KHH[SHULPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQWULSOLFDWHVDQGDQDYHUDJHFRQFHQWUDWLRQZDVSORWWHGDJDLQVWWLPHZLWK
VWDQGDUGHUURUEDUV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU7KH'LIIXVLRQRIWKH73V7KURXJKWKH/LSRVRPH0HPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
7KH GLIIXVLRQ RI (& DQG (*& ZHUH PHDVXUHG LQ D VLPLODU ZD\ ZKHUH WKH OLSRVRPH
PHPEUDQHVZHUHSUHWUHDWHGIRUKZLWKWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVHTXDOWRWKDWWREHXVHGLQWKH
GRQRUFKDPEHUPJP/ IRU(&DQGPJP/ IRU(*&7KH VROXWLRQV LQWKHDFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUV ZHUH VDPSOHG IRU WLPH LQWHUYDOV LQ WKH UDQJH K ZKLFK FRUUHVSRQGHG WR
FRQFHQWUDWLRQVWKDWFRXOGEHGHWHFWHGE\WKH89)LJXUHVKRZVWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIWKH
(&DQG(*&LQWKHDFFHSWRUFKDPEHUVDQGWKHGDWDZHUHILWWHGWR(TXDWLRQZLWK5
7KHSHUPHDELOLW\RI(&IURPWKHILWWLQJLVîFPVZKLFKLVVPDOOHU
WKDQWKDWRI(*&ZLWKDSHUPHDELOLW\RIîFPV
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRUFKDPEHU
PROP
(&
(*&
7LPHV
)LJXUH7KHGLIIXVLRQRI(&ILOOHGFLUFOHVDQG(*&RSHQFLUFOHVWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHDIWHUSUH
WUHDWPHQWILWWHGE\WKHFRQWLQXRXVGLIIXVLRQPRGHOVROLGOLQHVZLWKFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVGDVKOLQHV7KHHUURU
EDUVUHSUHVHQWVWDQGDUGHUURUVRIWKUHHUHSHDWV7KHVROLGOLQHVDUHWKHEHVWILWVWR(TXDWLRQZLWKWKH
FRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVVKRZQDVWKHGDVKOLQHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU7KH'LIIXVLRQRIWKH73V7KURXJKWKH/LSRVRPH0HPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
7KHGLIIXVLRQRI(*&*WKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
7KHGLIIXVLRQRI(*&*ZDVDOVRPHDVXUHGXVLQJDVLPLODU PHWKRGWRWKDWIRU(*&* ZKHUH
WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQHV ZHUH LPPHUVHG LQ WKH SUHWUHDWPHQW VROXWLRQ IRU K ZLWK D
FRQFHQWUDWLRQPJP/ZKLFKLVHTXDOWRWKDWLQWKHGRQRUFKDPEHU7KHFRQFHQWUDWLRQV
LQ WKH DFFHSWRU FKDPEHUV DUH SORWWHG DV D IXQFWLRQ RI WLPH LQ )LJXUH 6LPLODUO\ WR (&*
WKHUH ZDV QR VLJQLILFDQW GLIIXVLRQ RI (*&* WKURXJK WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH DQG WKH
FRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIîPROP(*&*LQWKHDFFHSWRUFKDPEHUVDOVRFRUUHVSRQGHG
WR WKH UHOHDVH RI WKH (*&* WKDW ZDV DEVRUEHG DIWHU WKH SUHWUHDWPHQW î
PROP 7KLV UHVXOW LV FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK WKH ORZ ELRDYDLODELOLW\ RI (*&* DV LW KDV DQ
H[WUHPHO\OLPLWHGGLIIXVLQJUDWHWKURXJKWKHOLSLGPHPEUDQHV
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRUFKDPEHU
PROP
(*&*GLIIXVLRQ
(*&*UHOHDVH
ORJW
)LJXUH7KHGLIIXVLRQRIWKH(*&*DIWHUWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHZDVSUHWUHDWHGZLWKWKHPJPO(*&*IRU
KDVVKRZQLQILOOHGFLUFOHVDQGWKHUHOHDVHRIWKH(*&*WKDWZDVDEVRUEHGE\WKHOLSVRPHPHPEUDQHDIWHUWKHSUH
WUHDWHG7KHH[SHULPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQWULSOLFDWHVDQGDQDYHUDJHFRQFHQWUDWLRQZDVSORWWHGDJDLQVWWLPHZLWK
VWDQGDUGHUURUEDUV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU7KH'LIIXVLRQRIWKH73V7KURXJKWKH/LSRVRPH0HPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
7KHSK\VLFRFKHPLFDOHQKDQFHPHQWRIWKHGLIIXVLRQRI(*&*WKURXJKWKH
OLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
7KHSK\VLFRFKHPLFDOHQKDQFHPHQWE\'062DQGHWKDQRO
6LQFH (*&* GLG QRW GLIIXVH VLJQLILFDQWO\ WKURXJK WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH DWWHPSWV ZHUH
PDGHWRHQKDQFHWKHGLIIXVLRQE\XVLQJHWKDQRODQG'0627KHGLIIXVLRQZDVFDUULHGRXWDV
GHVFULEHGLQWKHSUHYLRXVVHFWLRQVDQGWKHHQKDQFHUVZHUHDGGHGLQWRERWKWKHSUHWUHDWPHQW
VROXWLRQDQGWKHGRQRUVROXWLRQ
$VVKRZQLQ)LJXUH'062GLGQRWSURPRWHWKHGLIIXVLRQRI(*&*EXWQHDUO\
î PROP PRUH (*&* ZDV UHOHDVHG IURP WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH WR WKH DFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUV DOWKRXJK WKH YDULDWLRQ ZDV ZLGH $ JUHDWHU FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI '062 VKRZHG
QRHQKDQFHPHQWRIWKHGLIIXVLRQRUDJUHDWHUUHOHDVHRI(*&*IURPWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
$V VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH QHLWKHU HWKDQRO QRU HWKDQRO DQG '062 HQKDQFHG WKH
GLIIXVLRQRI(*&*RUSURPRWHGWKHUHOHDVHRI(*&*IURPWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU7KH'LIIXVLRQRIWKH73V7KURXJKWKH/LSRVRPH0HPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRUFKDPEHUPROP
(*&*FRQWURO
(*&*LQ'062
(*&*LQ'062
ORJW
)LJXUH7KHGLIIXVLRQRI(*&*WKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHZLWK'0627KHH[SHULPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQ
WULSOLFDWHVDQGDQDYHUDJHFRQFHQWUDWLRQZDVSORWWHGDJDLQVWWLPHZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUEDUV
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRUFKDPEHUPROP
(*&*FRQWURO
(*&*LQ'062DQG(WKDQRO
(*&*LQHWKDQRO
ORJW
)LJXUH7KHGLIIXVLRQRI(*&*WKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHZLWKHWKDQRODQG'0627KHH[SHULPHQWVZHUH
SHUIRUPHGLQWULSOLFDWHVDQGWKHPHDQFRQFHQWUDWLRQZDVSORWWHGDVDIXQFWLRQRIWLPHZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUEDUV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU7KH'LIIXVLRQRIWKH73V7KURXJKWKH/LSRVRPH0HPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
7KHSK\VLFRFKHPLFDOHQKDQFHPHQWE\FKDQJLQJWKHS+
7KHS+RIWKHGRQRUDQGDFFHSWRUVROXWLRQVZHUHDGMXVWHG LQRUGHUWRFKDQJHWKH LRQLVDWLRQ
VWDWHRIWKH(*&*LQWKHVROXWLRQ7KHGLIIXVLRQPHDVXUHPHQWVZHUHFDUULHGRXWDVGHVFULEHG
SUHYLRXVO\DQGWKHS+LQWKHSUHWUHDWPHQWDQGWKHGRQRUVROXWLRQVZHUHDGMXVWHGWRDQG
E\+&ORU1D2+7KHH[SHULPHQWGDWDDUHVKRZQLQ)LJXUH
(*&*FRQWURO
(*&*FRQWURO
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUPROP
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUPROP
S+
S+
ORJW
ORJW
D
&RQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUPROP
E
(*&*FRQWURO
S+
ORJW
F
)LJXUH7KHGLIIXVLRQRI(*&*WKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHE\FKDQJLQJWKHS+WRDEDQGF7KH
H[SHULPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQWULSOLFDWHVDQGDQDYHUDJHFRQFHQWUDWLRQZDVSORWWHGDJDLQVWWLPHZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURU
EDUV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU7KH'LIIXVLRQRIWKH73V7KURXJKWKH/LSRVRPH0HPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
6LQFHWKHS.DRI(*&*LVUHSRUWHGWREHDERXW,QRXHHWDODS+VPDOOHUWKDQWKLV
YDOXHVKRXOGLQFUHDVHWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRIWKHXQLRQLVHG(*&*DQGWKXVSRWHQWLDOO\LQFUHDVH
WKH TXDQWLW\ RI (*&* GLIIXVHG +RZHYHU LW LV FOHDU IURP WKH UHVXOWV VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH WKDWWKHGLIIXVLRQSURFHVVLVQRWDIIHFWHGE\DFKDQJHLQWKHS+
7KHLQWHUDFWLRQVEHWZHHQ(*&*DQGOLSRVRPHE\5DPDQVSHFWURVFRS\
0ROHFXODU G\QDPLFV VLPXODWLRQV VXJJHVW WKDW VWURQJ K\GURJHQ ERQGV DUH IRUPHG EHWZHHQ
(*&* DQG WKH OLSLG ELOD\HUV 6LUN %URZQ HW DO 7KXV 5DPDQ VSHFWURVFRS\ PD\
SURYLGHVRPHLQVLJKWWRWKHLQWHUDFWLRQRI(*&*ZKHQDEVRUEHGRQWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
XVHG LQ WKH FXUUHQW ZRUN )LJXUH VKRZV WKH 5DPDQ VSHFWUD RI OLSRVRPH VXVSHQVLRQ
(*&*VROXWLRQDQGDPL[WXUHRIWKHPERWK
)URP D FRPSDULVRQ RI WKH WKUHH VSHFWUD WKH EURDG SHDN DW DERXW FP RI WKH
K\GUR[\OJURXSVRI(*&*LVQRWYLVLEOHLQWKHVSHFWUDRIWKHPL[WXUHRIOLSRVRPHDQG(*&*
LQGLFDWLQJDQLQWHUDFWLRQRFFXUUHGEHWZHHQWKHK\GUR[\OJURXSVZLWKWKHSKRVSKDWLG\OFKROLQH
0RUHRYHU WKH SHDN DW FP RI WKH OLSRVRPH LV DOVR QRW YLVLEOH LQ WKH VSHFWUD RI WKH
PL[WXUHWKLVSHDNFRUUHVSRQGVWRWKHYLEUDWLRQDO UHJLRQRI& & ERQGV,WFRXOG EHGHGXFHG
WKDWDK\GURJHQERQGLVIRUPHGEHWZHHQWKHKLJKO\DFWLYHK\GUR[\OJURXSVRI(*&*DQGWKH
& &RIWKHSKRVSKDWLG\OFKROLQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU7KH'LIIXVLRQRIWKH73V7KURXJKWKH/LSRVRPH0HPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
/LSRVRPH
(*&*
/LSRVRPH LQ(*&*
,QWHQVLW\DX
5DPDQ6KLIWFP
)LJXUH7KH5DPDQVSHFWUDRIOLSRVRPHVXVSHQVLRQJUH\OLQH(*&*VROXWLRQGDVKOLQHDQGDPL[WXUHRIERWK
VROLGOLQH
7KHLQWHUDFWLRQVEHWZHHQ(*&*DQGOLSRVRPHE\$)0
7KHLQWHUDFWLRQVEHWZHHQ(*&*DQGSKRVSKDWLG\OFKROLQHZHUHIXUWKHULQYHVWLJDWHGE\$)0
7KH<RXQJ¶VPRGXOXVDQGKDUGQHVVRIWKHOLSRVRPHLQWKHPHPEUDQHZLWK(*&*DWS+
DQGDUHVKRZQLQ)LJXUH(*&*GRHVQRWVLJQLILFDQWO\LQIOXHQFHWKH<RXQJ¶VPRGXOXV
RUWKHKDUGQHVVRIWKHOLSRVRPHDWWKHVHS+YDOXHVEXWWKHYDULDWLRQRIWKHPHDVXUHG<RXQJ¶V
PRGXOXVLVZLGHUWKDQWKDWRIWKHFRQWUROOLSRVRPH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&RQWURO
(*&*
+DUGQHVVNSD
<RXQJ
V0RGXOXV03D
&KDSWHU7KH'LIIXVLRQRIWKH73V7KURXJKWKH/LSRVRPH0HPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&RQWURO
(*&*
S+
S+
S+
S+
S+
S+
)LJXUH7KH<RXQJ¶VPRGXOXVDQGKDUGQHVVRIWKHOLSRVRPHZLWK(*&*DWS+DQGWHVWHGE\$)0
PHDVXUHPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGDQGWKHHUURUVEDUVUHSUHVHQWWKHFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOV
6800$5<
,QWKLVFKDSWHUWKHDEVRUSWLRQDQGWKHGLIIXVLRQRIWKH73VWKURXJKWKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH
ZHUHPHDVXUHGXVLQJWKHSURWRFROGHYHORSHGIRUFDIIHLQH$IXUWKHULQYHVWLJDWLRQZDVIRFXVHG
RQ WKH SK\VLFRFKHPLFDO HQKDQFHPHQW RI (*&* DQG LWV LQWHUDFWLRQV ZLWK WKH
SKRVSKDWLG\OFKROLQH7KHUHVXOWVDUHVXPPDULVHGDVIROORZV
x
7KHDEVRUSWLRQNLQHWLFVRIWKH73VKDVEHHQVWXGLHGDQGZKLOH(*&ZDVQRWDEVRUEHG
E\WKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH(*&*DQG(&ZHUHDEVRUEHGZLWKILUVWRUGHUDEVRUSWLRQ
UDWHFRQVWDQWVRIDQGîVZKLFKDUHDERXWJUHDWHUWKDQ
WKDWIRU(&*ZLWKDYDOXHRIîV
x
7KH DEVRUSWLRQ RI (*&* ZDV IXUWKHU LQYHVWLJDWHG DW GLIIHUHQW LQLWLDO FRQFHQWUDWLRQV
WKHILUVWRUGHUDEVRUSWLRQUDWHFRQVWDQWVDWDQGPJP/ZHUHQRW
VWDWLVWLFDOO\GLIIHUHQWZLWKDPHDQYDOXHRIî V
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU7KH'LIIXVLRQRIWKH73V7KURXJKWKH/LSRVRPH0HPEUDQH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
x
7KHSHUPHDELOLW\RI(&*ZDVQHJOLJLEO\ VPDOOZKLOHWKHYDOXHVIRU(&DQG(*&DUH
îFPVDQGîFPVUHVSHFWLYHO\
x
7KH VPDOO SHUPHDELOLW\ RI (*&* LV FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK LWV ORZ ELRDYDLODELOLW\ 7KH
GLIIXVLRQZDVQRWHQKDQFHGE\HWKDQRORU'062QRUE\FKDQJLQJWKHS+WRRU
x
5DPDQVSHFWURVFRS\ZDVXVHGWRLQYHVWLJDWHWKHSRVVLEOHLQWHUDFWLRQVEHWZHHQ(*&*
DQG WKH SKRVSKDWLG\OFKROLQH ,W ZDV FRQFOXGHG WKDW K\GURJHQ ERQGLQJ FRXOG EH
IRUPHG EHWZHHQ WKH K\GUR[\O JURXSV RI (*&* DQG WKH & & RI WKH
SKRVSKDWLG\OFKROLQH +RZHYHU WKH PHFKDQLFDO SURSHUWLHV RI WKH OLSRVRPH LQ WKH
PHPEUDQH ZLWK (*&* ZHUH QRW VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHUHQW IURP WKH OLSRVRPH ZLWKRXW
(*&*
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU(QFDSVXODWLRQRI(*&*
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&+$37(5 (1&$368/$7,212)(*&*
,1752'8&7,21
$V GLVFXVVHG LQ WKH &KDSWHU (*&* LV EHOLHYHG WR KDYH FRQVLGHUDEOH KHDOWK EHQHILWV IRU
H[DPSOH LW LV ZLGHO\ VWXGLHG IRU LWV DQWLR[LGDQW DQG DQWLFDQFHU DFWLYLW\ +RZHYHU LW LV
VHQVLWLYH WR WKH VXUURXQGLQJ HQYLURQPHQW LQFOXGLQJ S+ KHDW DQG OLJKW H[SRVXUH
0LFURHQFDSVXODWLRQ FDQ EH D VXLWDEOH WHFKQLTXH WR SURWHFW WKH DFWLYH LQJUHGLHQW IURP
GHJUDGDWLRQ DQG DFKLHYH D ORQJ VKHOI OLIH RI WKH IXQFWLRQDO LQJUHGLHQW RI JUHHQ WHD 1DWXUDO
SURGXFWVDUHSUHIHUDEOHZDOOFDUULHUPDWHULDOVIRU(*&*VLQFHWKHFKDOOHQJHRIHQFDSVXODWLQJ
VXFKDµIUDJLOH¶IRRGLQJUHGLHQWOLHVLQWKHVDIHW\RIWKHSURWHFWLQJPDWHULDOZLWKDQDFFHSWDEOH
ELRDYDLODELOLW\DQGQRLQWHUIHUHQFHZLWKWKHILQDOSURGXFWV0HOOHPD
(GLEOH ZD[HV LQFOXGLQJ EHHVZD[ KDYH EHHQ XVHG DV FDUULHUV IRU YDULRXV W\SHV RI GUXJV
5DJKXYDQVKL7ULSDWKLHWDO8QHU*RQXOOXHWDO*RZGD5DYLHWDO,WLV
K\GURSKRELFGXFWLOHZLWKRXWFUDFNVDQGVWDEOHDWURRPWHPSHUDWXUH7KHSODWHOLNHFU\VWDOVLQ
WKH ZD[HV DUH YHU\ HIILFLHQW LQ KDPSHULQJ WKH GLIIXVLRQ RI VPDOO PROHFXOHV 'RQKRZH DQG
)HQQHPD 7KLV IHDWXUH KDV PDGH EHHVZD[ D SRWHQWLDO ZDOOFDUULHU PDWHULDO IRU ZDWHU
VROXEOH (*&* 0HOOHPD HW DO 0HOOHPD 9DQ %HQWKXP HW DO SURSRVHG WKDW WKH
SUHSDUDWLRQRIZD[PLFURVSKHUHVDVHQFDSVXODWHVVKRXOGEHDORZFRVWZKLOHWKHVL]HVKRXOG
EHVXFKWKDWLWLVQRWVHQVHGLQWKHPRXWK7KH\LQWURGXFHGWZRVLPSOHSUHSDUDWLRQWHFKQLTXHV
IRU ZD[ FDSVXOHV DV VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH D µVROLG¶ PHWKRG LQYROYLQJ WKH GHSRVLWLRQ RI KRW
ZD[ZLWKWKHLQJUHGLHQWRQDSODWHZLWKVL]HRYHUPPDQGDµOLTXLG¶PHWKRGZKHUHKRWZD[
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU(QFDSVXODWLRQRI(*&*
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
ZLWK WKH LQJUHGLHQW LV LQMHFWHG LQWR FROG RLO ZLWK D KLJKVKHDU PL[HU JLYLQJ SDUWLFOHV LQ WKH
UDQJH P 7KH SUHVHQW ZRUN KDV DGDSWHG D VLPLODU PHWKRG GHYHORSHG IURP WKH
WHFKQLTXH LQ *RZGD¶V ZRUN *RZGD 5DYL HW DO WKLV LQYROYHV DQ HPXOVLILHG FRROLQJ
LQGXFHGVROLGLILFDWLRQDVLQWURGXFHGLQ&KDSWHUZKHUH(*&*ZDVGLVSHUVHGLQWKHEHHVZD[
PDWUL[DVPLFURVSKHUHV
)LJXUH6FKHPDWLFGUDZLQJRIDDVROLGPHWKRGLQYROYLQJGHSRVLWLRQRQDSODWHRIKRWZD[ZLWKWKHHQFDSVXODWHG
FRPSRXQGDQGEDOLTXLGPHWKRGLQYROYLQJVWLUULQJKRWZD[ZLWKWKHHQFDSVXODWHGFRPSRXQGLQKRWYHJHWDEOHRLO
IROORZHGE\FRROLQJ0HOOHPD9DQ%HQWKXPHWDO
7R HYDOXDWH WKH UHOHDVH NLQHWLFV DQG PHFKDQLVP RI WKH (*&* UHOHDVHG IURP WKH EHHVZD[
PLFURVSKHUHVWKHUHOHDVHSURILOHGDWDZDVILWWHGZLWKDPDWKHPDWLFPRGHO,QDPDWUL[V\VWHP
ZKHQ WKH GUXJ KDV D OLPLWHG VROXELOLW\ LQ WKH FDUULHU VROLG DQG LV PRVWO\ GLVSHUVHG DV
SDUWLFXODWHVLWLVFDOOHGDPRQROLWKLFGLVSHUVLRQ7KHPHFKDQLVPRIGUXJUHOHDVHIURPDQRQ
VZHOODEOHDQGQRQHURGLEOHZD[PDWUL[V\VWHPLVSULPDULO\E\GLIIXVLRQZKLFKLVVLPLODUWRD
GHVRUSWLRQSURFHVV&KHER\LQDDQG:\DQGW7KHUHOHDVHNLQHWLFVGHYHORSHGE\+LJXFKL
DQG%DNHUKDVEHHQZLGHO\XVHGWRILWDGLIIXVLRQFRQWUROOHGUHOHDVHPRGHO
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU(QFDSVXODWLRQRI(*&*
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
7KLVFKDSWHUGHVFULEHVWKHHQFDSVXODWLRQRI(*&*XVLQJEHHVZD[DVPLFURVSKHUHVEDVHGRQ
WKH HPXOVLILHG FRROLQJ LQGXFHG VROLGLILFDWLRQ PHWKRG 7KH PRUSKRORJLFDO SURSHUWLHV RI WKH
PLFURVSKHUHV ZHUH REVHUYHG E\ RSWLFDO PLFURVFRS\ DQG WKH VL]H GLVWULEXWLRQV ZHUH DOVR
PHDVXUHG7KHHQFDSVXODWLRQHIILFLHQF\ZDVFDOFXODWHGIRUWKHIRXUIRUPXODWLRQVHPSOR\HGLQ
WKLV VWXG\ ,Q YLWUR UHOHDVH DQG ORQJ WHUP OHDNDJH RI WKH (*&* IURP WKH EHHVZD[
PLFURVSKHUHVZHUHPHDVXUHGDQGWKHGDWDZHUHILWWHGWRZD[PDWUL[UHOHDVHNLQHWLFV
0$7(5,$/6$1'0(7+2'6
0DWHULDOV
%HHVZD[ 5HILQHG ZLWK D PHOWLQJ SRLQW DW R& DQG 7ZHHQ YLVFRXV OLTXLG ZHUH
SXUFKDVHGIURP6LJPD8.ZHUHSXUFKDVHGIURP6LJPD8.(*&*ZDVNLQGO\SURYLGHGE\
8QLOHYHU 8. $ 5XVKWRQ EODGH LPSHOOHU 0HFKDQLFDO (QJLQHHULQJ DW 8QLYHUVLW\ RI
%LUPLQJKDP DQG D EHDNHU ZLWK EXIIHULQJ EDUV *ODVVEORZLQJ IDFLOLW\ DW 6FKRRO RI
&KHPLVWU\8QLYHUVLW\RI%LUPLQJKDPZHUHXVHGWRHQKDQFHWKHPL[LQJ
7KHPHWKRGRIPDNLQJEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHRI(*&*
$VLOOXVWUDWHGLQ )LJXUHWRSUHSDUHWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVRI(*&*WKHEHHVZD[ZDV
ILUVWO\PHOWHGLQWKHEHDNHULQDZDWHUEDWKDWR&DVDFDUULHUIRU(*&*DQGWKHRLOSKDVHLQ
WKHHPXOVLRQV\VWHP$WWKHVDPHWLPHJRI7ZHHQZDVGLVVROYHGLQP/GLVWLOOHG
ZDWHU DQG SUHKHDWHG WR R& WR VHUYH DV WKH ZDWHU SKDVH (*&* ZDV WKHQ ZHOO
GLVSHUVHG LQWKH PHOWHG EHHVZD[ IRU PLQXVLQJDQRYHUKHDGVWLUUHU(85267$53RZHU
,.$ILWWHGZLWKD5XVKWRQEODGHLPSHOOHUDWDQDJLWDWLRQVSHHGRIUSP7KHSUHKHDWHG
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU(QFDSVXODWLRQRI(*&*
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
VROXWLRQRI7ZHHQZDVWKHQDGGHGLQWRWKHPL[WXUHRIWKHEHHVZD[DQG(*&*WRIRUPDQ
2:HPXOVLRQXQGHUWKHVDPHDJLWDWLRQVSHHGRIUSP)LQDOO\WKHHPXOVLRQZDVPRYHG
IURP WKH KRW ZDWHU EDWK LQWR DQ LFH EDWK WR VROLGLI\ WKH HPXOVLILHG EHHVZD[ PLFURVSKHUHV
XQGHU DQ DJLWDWLRQ UDWH RI USP IRU PLQ 7KH PLFURVSKHUHV ZHUH WKHQ ZDVKHG E\
GLVWLOOHGZDWHUIROORZHGE\YDFXXPILOWHUHGXVLQJD%XFKQHUIXQQHODQGDLUGULHGRYHUQLJKW
7KH VL[ IRUPXODWLRQV RI WKH EHHVZD[ PLFURVSKHUHV DV OLVWHG LQ 7DEOH ZHUH XVHG WR
LQYHVWLJDWH WKH LPSDFW RI DJLWDWLRQ WLPH GXULQJ WKH HPXOVLILFDWLRQ DQG WKH ORDGLQJ RQ WKH
SURSHUWLHVRIPLFURVSKHUHV
)LJXUH7KHSUHSDUDWLRQRIWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVRI(*&*D7ZHHQDQGEHHVZD[ZHUHERWK
SUHKHDWHGWRR&E(*&*ZDVZHOOGLVSHUVHGLQWKHPHOWHGEHHVZD[E\PL[LQJDQGDQ2:HPXOVLRQZDVIRUPHG
E\YLJRURXVPL[LQJZLWKWKH7ZHHQVROXWLRQDWR&F7KHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVZHUHVROLGLILHGE\FRROLQJLQDQ
LFHEDWK
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU(QFDSVXODWLRQRI(*&*
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
7DEOH)RUPXODWLRQRIWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVRI(*&*
)RUPXODWLRQV
$
%
&
'
(
)
%HHVZD[J
(*&*J
$JLWDWLRQWLPHPLQ
&KDUDFWHULVDWLRQRIWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUH
2SWLFDOPLFURVFRSHREVHUYDWLRQRIWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUH
$VPDOOVDPSOHRIWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVRI(*&*ZDVPRXQWHGRQWRDJODVVVOLGHWREH
REVHUYHGE\DQRSWLFDOPLFURVFRSH/HLFD'05%(/HLFD0LFURV\VWHPV*PE+*HUPDQ\
HTXLSSHGZLWK/HLFD4:LQ3UR9VRIWZDUH/HLFD0LFURV\VWHPV,PDJLQJ6ROXWLRQV/WG
8.
6L]HDQGGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKHPLFURVSKHUH
7KHVL]HGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKHPLFURVSKHUHVZDVPHDVXUHGE\D0DOYHUQ0DVWHUVL]HU$3$
0DOYHUQ,QVWUXPHQWV/WG8.,WLVEDVHGRQDSULQFLSOHWKDWWKHSDUWLFOHVSDVVLQJWKURXJKD
ODVHUEHDPZLOOVFDWWHUOLJKWDWDQDQJOHWKDWLVGLUHFWO\UHODWHGWRWKHLUVL]HVWKHLQWHQVLW\RI
WKHVFDWWHUOLJKWGLPLQLVKHVDQGWKHDQJOHQDUURZVZLWKDQ LQFUHDVLQJVL]HDQGWKHSDWWHUQLV
VROYHG E\ 0LH 7KHRU\ IRU WKH FDOFXODWLRQ RI SDUWLFOH VL]H GLVWULEXWLRQV EDVHG RQ 0D[ZHOO¶V
HOHFWURPDJQHWLF ILHOG HTXDWLRQV ,W LV FDSDEOH RI PHDVXULQJ D EURDG VL]H UDQJH IURP WR
P ZKLFK LV VXLWDEOH IRU WKH VL]H PHDVXUHPHQW RI WKH EHHVZD[ PLFURVSKHUHV LQ WKLV
ZRUN 7KH UHIUDFWLYH LQGH[ RI WKH EHHVZD[ LV )HOGVWHLQ ZKLFK LV UHTXLUHG WR
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU(QFDSVXODWLRQRI(*&*
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
GHWHUPLQH WKH DEVROXWH VL]H RI WKH PLFURVSKHUHV ZLWK WKLV HTXLSPHQW 7KH PHDQ VL]H
GLVWULEXWLRQRIWKUHHUHSHDWPHDVXUHPHQWVZDVFDOFXODWHG
(QFDSVXODWLRQHIILFLHQF\RIWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVRI(*&*
7R FDOFXODWH WKH HQFDSVXODWLRQ HIILFLHQF\ RI WKH EHHVZD[ PLFURVSKHUHV RI (*&* WKH
FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI (*&* LQ WKH ZDWHU SKDVH RI WKH RZ HPXOVLRQ DQG WKH ZDVKLQJ VROXWLRQ
PHDVXUHGXVLQJD89VSHFWURSKRWRPHWHU7KHHQFDSVXODWLRQHIILFLHQF\ZDVFDOFXODWHG XVLQJ
WKHIROORZLQJH[SUHVVLRQ
((
0DVVWRWDO 0DVVUH FRY HUHG
0DVVWRWDO
ZKHUH 0DVVWRWDO LV WKH WRWDO (*&* LQSXW DQG 0DVVUHFRYHUHG LV WKH (*&* UHFRYHUHG IURP WKH
ZDWHUSKDVHDQGWKHILOWUDWHDIWHUWKHPLFURVSKHUHVZHUHZDVKHG
,QYLWURUHOHDVHRIWKH(*&*IURPWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUH
7KHUHOHDVHRIWKH(*&* IURPWKHEHHVZD[ PLFURVSKHUHZDVFDUULHGRXWLQDVHDOHGEHDNHU
ZLWK P/ GLVWLOOHG ZDWHU PDLQWDLQHG DW R& ZLWK D PDJQHWLF VWLUUHU 5&7 EDVLF
,.$0$*DWUSP$QDOLTXRWHRIP/RIWKHOLTXLGSKDVHZDVVDPSOHGDWLQWHUYDOVRI
K DQG ILOWHUHG XVLQJ D V\ULQJH ILOWHU )LVKHU 6FLHQWLILF 8. EHIRUH EHLQJ DQDO\VHG E\ D 89
VSHFWURSKRWRPHWHU7KHH[SHULPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQWULSOLFDWHVDQGWKHPHDQYDOXHRIWKH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU(QFDSVXODWLRQRI(*&*
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
DPRXQW UHOHDVHG SHUFHQWDJH ZDV SORWWHG DV D IXQFWLRQ RI WLPH ZLWK VWDQGDUG HUURUV 7KH
UHOHDVH GDWD ZDV WKHQ FRPSDUHG SDLU ZLVH XVLQJ D VLPLODULW\ IDFWRU DSSURDFK ZKHUH I LV
GHILQHGDV6KDK7VRQJHWDO&KHER\LQDDQG:\DQGW
I
ª Q
º
ORJ ®« ¦ 5W 7W »
¼
¯¬ Q ½
°
u ¾ °
¿
ZKHUH5WDQG7WDUHWKHFXPXODWLYHSHUFHQWUHOHDVHVDWWLPHWIRUDQ\WZRUHOHDVHSURILOHV$
YDOXHRIILQWKHUDQJHVXJJHVWVWKDWWKHWZRUHOHDVHSURILOHVDUHVLPLODU
,Q+LJXFKLUHOHDVHNLQHWLFV+LJXFKLWKHUHOHDVHRIDZDWHUVROXEOHGUXJIURPDVODERI
VROLGPDWUL[LVSURSRUWLRQDOWRVTXDUHURRWRIWLPH
0W >'&&V&VW@
ZKHUH0WLVWKHDPRXQWRIGUXJUHOHDVHGDWWLPHW&LVWKHLQLWLDOFRQFHQWUDWLRQRIWKHGUXJLQ
WKH PDWUL[ &V LV WKH VDWXUDWLRQ VROXELOLW\ RI WKH GUXJ LQ WKH PDWUL[ DQG ' LV WKH GLIIXVLRQ
FRHIILFLHQWRIWKHGUXJLQWKHPDWUL[
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU(QFDSVXODWLRQRI(*&*
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
%DNHU/RQVGDOH DGDSWHG WKH +LJXFKL PRGHO +LJXFKL %DNHU IRU GHVFULELQJ WKH
UHOHDVHRIDGUXJIURPDVSKHULFDOPDWUL[DV
ª
º
0W · » 0W
« §
¸ ¨ « ¨©
0 ¸¹ » 0 «¬
¼»
'& V
U &
W ZKHUH 0W0 LV WKH UHOHDVH SHUFHQWDJH DW WLPH W DQG U LV WKH UDGLXV RI D KRPRJHQRXV
PRQROLWKLFVSKHUH%\VROYLQJ(TXDWLRQ
ª
º
0W · » 0W
« §
¸ ¨ « ¨© 0 ¸¹ » 0 «¬
»¼
NW F ZKHUH N LV D UHOHDVH UDWH FRQVWDQW FRUUHVSRQGLQJ WR WKH VORSH RI WKH ILWWLQJ OLQH DQG F LV D
FRQVWDQWFRUUHVSRQGLQJWRWKHLQWHUFHSWRIWKHILWWLQJOLQH&KHER\LQDDQG:\DQGW7KH
UHOHDVH GDWD RI WKH VL[ IRUPXODWLRQV RI (*&* IURP EHHVZD[ PLFURVSKHUHV ZHUH ILWWHG WR
(TXDWLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU(QFDSVXODWLRQRI(*&*
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
/HDNDJHRIWKH(*&*IURPWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUH
7KHXVHRIEHHVZD[WRPDNHPLFURVSKHUHVRI(*&*IRUORQJWHUPVWRUDJHZDVHYDOXDWHGE\
OHDNDJH H[SHULPHQWV IRU XS WR GD\V 7KH EHHVZD[ PLFURVSKHUHV ZHUH VWRUHG LQ D JODVV
ERWWOH ZLWK P/ GLVWLOOHG ZDWHU DW URRP WHPSHUDWXUH $Q DOLTXRWRI WKH OLTXLG SKDVH ZDV
VDPSOHGDQGILOWHUHGWREHDQDO\VHGE\D89VSHFWURSKRWRPHWHU7KHOHDNDJHWHVWVRIWKHVL[
IRUPXODWLRQVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQWULSOLFDWHVDQGWKHPHDQYDOXHRIWKHOHDNDJHZDVSORWWHGDVD
IXQFWLRQRIWLPHZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUVDQGILWWHGWR(TXDWLRQ
5(68/76
(QFDSVXODWLRQHIILFLHQF\RIWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVRI(*&*
)LJXUH VKRZVWKHLPSDFWRIDJLWDWLRQWLPHRQWKHHQFDSVXODWLRQHIILFLHQF\RIWKHEHHVZD[
PLFURVSKHUHV RI (*&* XVLQJ WKH HPXOVLILHG FRROLQJ LQGXFHG VROLGLILFDWLRQ PHWKRG
6WDWLVWLFDOO\ ZLWK FRQILGHQFH WKHUH ZDV QR VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH LQ WKH HQFDSVXODWLRQ
HIILFLHQF\ IRU IRUPXODWLRQV $ DQG % WKH PHDQ YDOXH RI WKH UHVLGXDO (*&* LQ WKH
PLFURVSKHUHVLV7KLVVXJJHVWVWKDWZLWKLQPLQWKHDJLWDWLRQWLPHKDGQRLPSDFW
RQ WKH HQFDSVXODWLRQ HIILFLHQF\ :KHQ WKH DJLWDWLRQ ZDV LQFUHDVHG WR PLQ WKHUH ZDV D
FRQVLGHUDEOHGHFUHDVHLQWKHHQFDSVXODWLRQHIILFLHQF\ZLWKRQO\RIWKH(*&*ZDV
WUDSSHGLQWKHZD[
)LJXUH VKRZV WKH LPSDFW RI DQ LQFUHDVLQJ ORDGLQJ RI WKH (*&* LQ WKH EHHVZD[ RQ WKH
HQFDSVXODWLRQ HIILFLHQF\ :KHQ WKH ORDGLQJ ZDV LQFUHDVHG IURP WR WKH
HQFDSVXODWLRQ HIILFLHQF\ GLG QRW LQFUHDVH VLJQLILFDQWO\ ZLWK D PHDQ YDOXH RI $
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU(QFDSVXODWLRQRI(*&*
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
IXUWKHU ORDGLQJ RI (*&* LQWR WKH EHHVZD[ E\ \LHOGHG D VLJQLILFDQW UHGXFWLRQ RI WKH
HQFDSVXODWLRQHIILFLHQF\WRRQO\
(QFDSVXODWLRQHIILFLHQF\
PLQ
PLQ
PLQ
$JLWDWLRQWLPHPLQ
)LJXUH7KHLPSDFWRIDJLWDWLRQWLPHRQWKHHQFDSVXODWLRQHIILFLHQF\RIWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVRI(*&*7KH
H[SHULPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQWULSOLFDWHVDQGDQDYHUDJHYDOXHZDVSORWWHGZLWKFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOV
(QFDSVXODWLRQHIILFLHQF\
/RDGLQJSHUFHQWDJH
)LJXUH7KHLPSDFWRIORDGLQJRQWKHHQFDSVXODWLRQHIILFLHQF\RIWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVRI(*&*7KH
H[SHULPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQWULSOLFDWHVDQGDPHDQYDOXHZDVSORWWHGZLWKFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU(QFDSVXODWLRQRI(*&*
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
6L]HGLVWULEXWLRQVRIWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVRI(*&*
7KHLPSDFWRIDJLWDWLRQWLPHRQWKHVL]HGLVWULEXWLRQVLVVKRZQLQ)LJXUH DQGWKHYROXPH
PRPHQWPHDQVL]HV'>@ZLWKWKHLUVSDQVDUHOLVWHGLQ 7DEOH. $SURORQJHGDJLWDWLRQ
WLPH GXULQJ WKH HPXOVLILFDWLRQ UHVXOWHG LQ VOLJKWO\ VPDOOHU PLFURVSKHUHV DOVR WKHUH ZDV D
UHGXFWLRQRIZLWKDQDUURZHUGLVWULEXWLRQZKHQWKHDJLWDWLRQWLPHZDV LQFUHDVHG
E\DIDFWRURIILYH
)LJXUHVKRZVWKHLPSDFWRIWKHORDGLQJRQWKHVL]HVRIWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHV7KHUH
ZDVDVOLJKWLQFUHDVHRIZKHQWKHORDGLQJZDVLQFUHDVHGIURPWR
7DEOH7KHDJLWDWLRQWLPHORDGLQJ'>@DQGVSDQRIWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVRI(*&*PHDVXUHGE\0DOYHUQ
0DVWHUVL]HU$OOWKHPHDVXUHPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQWULSOLFDWHV
)RUPXODWLRQV
$
%
&
'
(
)
$JLWDWLRQWLPHPLQ
/RDGLQJSHUFHQWDJH
'>@P
6SDQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU(QFDSVXODWLRQRI(*&*
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
9ROXPQ
PLQ
PLQ
PLQ
3DUWLFOHVL]HP
)LJXUH7KHLPSDFWRIDJLWDWLRQWLPHRQWKHVL]HGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVRI(*&*7KH
PHDVXUHPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQWULSOLFDWHVDQGWKHPHDQYROXPHGLVWULEXWLRQVDUHSORWWHG
9ROXPQ
3DUWLFOHVL]HP
)LJXUH7KHLPSDFWRIORDGLQJRQWKHVL]HGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVRI(*&*7KHPHDVXUHPHQWV
ZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQWULSOLFDWHVDQGWKHPHDQYROXPHGLVWULEXWLRQVDUHSORWWHG
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU(QFDSVXODWLRQRI(*&*
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
2SWLFDOPLFURVFRSHREVHUYDWLRQRIWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHRI(*&*
7KH EHHVZD[ PLFURVSKHUHV RI (*&* ZHUH REVHUYHG XQGHU PLFURVFRSH DV VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH
$
%
&
'
(
)
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU(QFDSVXODWLRQRI(*&*
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
*
+
)LJXUH2SWLFDOPLFURVFRS\REVHUYDWLRQRIWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVRI(*&*$IRUPXODWLRQ$%
IRUPXODWLRQ%&IRUPXODWLRQ&'IRUPXODWLRQ'(IRUPXODWLRQ()IRUPXODWLRQ)*W\SLFDODJJUHJDWHG
EHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVZKHQDJLWDWLRQLVXQGHUUSP+W\SLFDODJJUHJDWHGEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHZKHQ7ZHHQ
LVDEVHQW
7KH IRUPXODWLRQ RI PDNLQJ WKH EHHVZD[ PLFURVSKHUH RI (*&* ZDV RSWLPLVHG LQ WKH
SUHOLPLQDU\ H[SHULPHQW WKDW DJJUHJDWHG PLFURVSKHUHV ZLWK LUUHJXODU VKDSHV DV VKRZQ LQ
)LJXUH*DQG+GXHWRDORZDJLWDWLRQVSHHGDQGWKHDEVHQFHRIWKHVXUIDFWDQW7ZHHQ
ZHUHHOLPLQDWHG7KHUHZDV QRYLVLEOHGLIIHUHQFH LQWKH PRUSKRORJLFDOSURSHUWLHVRIWKH
VL[RSWLPLVHGIRUPXODWLRQVDQGWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVZHUHUHJXODULQVKDSHZLWKURXJK
VXUIDFH DV VHHQ LQ )LJXUH $) 7KH GDUN VKDGRZV FRXOG EH WKH GLVSHUVHG (*&*
SDUWLFXODWHV ZKLFK ZHUH YLVLEOH LQ VRPH PLFURVSKHUHV LQGLFDWLQJ WKDW WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI
(*&*PD\QRWEHXQLIRUP7KHUHZHUHQRYLVLEOHFUDFNVRQWKHVXUIDFHVRIWKHPLFURVSKHUHV
,QYLWURUHOHDVHRI(*&*IURPWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHV
7KH UHOHDVH SURILOHV RI (*&* IURP WKH EHHVZD[ PLFURVSKHUHV ZLWK D SURORQJHG DJLWDWLRQ
WLPHGXULQJHPXOVLILFDWLRQDUHVKRZQLQ)LJXUH,WZDVREVHUYHGWKDWIXUWKHUDJLWDWLRQKDG
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU(QFDSVXODWLRQRI(*&*
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
QRLPSDFWRQWKHUHOHDVHSURILOHDVLQGLFDWHGE\WKHYDOXHVRIIOLVWHGLQ7DEOH7KHUHOHDVH
RI(*&*IURPWKHPLFURVSKHUHVZLWKLQKDUHYHU\OLPLWHGZLWKRQO\DQDYHUDJHRI
UHOHDVHGDWWKHHQGRIWKHH[SHULPHQWV
7KH UHOHDVH SURILOH RI (*&* IURP WKH EHHVZD[ PLFURVSKHUHV ZLWK DQ LQFUHDVLQJ ORDGLQJ
SHUFHQWDJHLVVKRZQLQ)LJXUH7KHYDOXHVRIIOLVWHGLQ7DEOHVXJJHVWWKDWWKHUHOHDVH
SURILOHVRIWKHIRXUIRUPXODWLRQVDUHQRWVLJQLILFDQWO\GLIIHUHQW7KHPHDQUHOHDVHRIWKHIRXU
IRUPXODWLRQVDIWHUKZDV
7KH UHOHDVH UHVXOW GDWD KDV GHPRQVWUDWHG WKDW EHHVZD[ LV YHU\ HIILFLHQW LQ KDPSHULQJ WKH
GLIIXVLRQ RI WKH WUDSSHG (*&* LQWR D ZDWHU SKDVH DQG D VPDOOHU VL]H PLFURVSKHUHV DQG D
KLJKHUORDGLQJSHUFHQWDJHGLGQRWUHVXOWLQDIDVWHUUHOHDVHRIWKHHQFDSVXODWHG(*&*6LQFH
WKHUH ZDV QR VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH LQ DOO RI WKH UHOHDVH SURILOHV WKH UHOHDVH SURILOH RI
IRUPXODWLRQ ' ZDV ILWWHG WR (TXDWLRQ DV DQ H[DPSOH DV VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH 7KH
GHWHUPLQDWLRQ FRHIILFLHQW 5 RI WKH ILWWLQJ ZDV LQGLFDWLQJ WKDW WKH UHOHDVH SURILOH RI
(*&*IURPWKHEHHVZD[PDWUL[ILWVWKH+LJXFKLVSKHULFDOPDWUL[UHOHDVHNLQHWLFVDQGWKXVWKH
UHOHDVH PHFKDQLVP FRXOG EH GLIIXVLRQFRQWUROOHG 7KH REWDLQHG UHOHDVH UDWH FRQVWDQW N ZDV
îV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU(QFDSVXODWLRQRI(*&*
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
PLQ
PLQ
5HOHDVH
PLQ
7LPHK
)LJXUH7KHLPSDFWRIDJLWDWLRQWLPHRQWKHUHOHDVHSURILOHRI(*&*IURPWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVLQ3%6S+
DWR&7KHH[SHULPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQWULSOLFDWHVIRUHDFKIRUPXODWLRQDQGDQDYHUDJHUHOHDVHSHUFHQWDJH
ZDVSORWWHGDVDIXQFWLRQRIWLPHZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUV
7DEOH6LPLODULW\IDFWRUIRIWKHUHOHDVHSURILOHVRIWKHWKUHHIRUPXODWLRQVIRUPXODWLRQ&DVDUHIHUHQFH
)RUPXODWLRQV
I
$PLQ %PLQ &PLQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU(QFDSVXODWLRQRI(*&*
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
5HOHDVH
7LPHK
)LJXUH7KHLPSDFWRIWKHORDGLQJRQWKHUHOHDVHSURILOHRI(*&*IURPWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVLQ3%6S+
DWR&7KHH[SHULPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQWULSOLFDWHVIRUHDFKIRUPXODWLRQDQGDQDYHUDJHUHOHDVHSHUFHQWDJHZDV
SORWWHGDVDIXQFWLRQRIWLPHZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUV
7DEOH6LPLODULW\IDFWRUVIRIWKHUHOHDVHSURILOHVRIWKHIRXUIRUPXODWLRQVIRUPXODWLRQ(DVDUHIHUHQFH
)RUPXODWLRQV
$
'
(
)
I
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU(QFDSVXODWLRQRI(*&*
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
5HOHDVH
7LPHK
)LJXUH7KHUHOHDVHGDWDRI(*&*IURPWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVILWWHGE\+LJXFKLVSKHULFDOPDWUL[UHOHDVH
NLQHWLFVVROLGOLQHZLWKFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVGDVKOLQHV
/HDNDJHRI(*&*IURPWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHV
7KH OHDNDJH RI (*&* ZLWK D SURORQJHG DJLWDWLRQ WLPH IURP WKH EHHVZD[ PLFURVSKHUHV LV
VKRZQ LQ)LJXUH 7KHDJLWDWLRQWLPHGXULQJWKHHPXOVLILFDWLRQ KDGQRVLJQLILFDQWHIIHFW
DVLQGLFDWHGE\WKHYDOXHVRIILQ7DEOH7KHUHZDVDUHODWLYHO\IDVWOHDNDJHLQWKHILUVW
GD\VZLWKDPHDQYDOXHRIRIWKHHQFDSVXODWHG(*&*OHDNHGLQWRWKHZDWHUSKDVH
$IWHU GD\V D WRWDO RI (*&* OHDNHG LQGLFDWLQJ WKDW EHHVZD[ LV D SRWHQWLDO
FDUULHUPDWHULDOIRUWKHORQJWHUPSUHVHUYDWLRQRI(*&*
7KH OHDNDJHRI(*&*ZLWK LQFUHDVLQJ ORDGLQJRIWKHPLFURVSKHUHV LVVKRZQ LQ)LJXUH
7KH\VKRZDVLPLODUEHKDYLRXUWRWKHOHDNDJHRI(*&*ZLWKDSURORQJHGDJLWDWLRQWLPHWKDWLW
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU(QFDSVXODWLRQRI(*&*
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
LVUHODWLYHO\ IDVWLQWKH ILUVWGD\VDQGWKHQGHFUHDVHV7KHWRWDOUHOHDVH IRUORDGLQJ
ZDVVOLJKWO\JUHDWHUWKDQWKDWDWOHDNHGFRPSDUHGZLWK7KH
OHDNDJH SURILOHV RI WKH IRXU IRUPXODWLRQV ZHUH QRW VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQW DV LQGLFDWHG E\ WKH
YDOXHVRIILQ7DEOH7KLVLVIXUWKHUHYLGHQFHWKDWEHHVZD[LVDSRWHQWLDOFDUULHUPDWHULDO
IRUORQJWHUPSUHVHUYDWLRQRI(*&*
PLQ
PLQ
/HDNDJH
PLQ
7LPHGD\V
)LJXUH7KHLPSDFWRIDJLWDWLRQWLPHRQWKHOHDNDJHRI(*&*IURPWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVDVDIXQFWLRQRI
WLPH7KHH[SHULPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQWULSOLFDWHVDQGDQDYHUDJHOHDNDJHZDVSORWWHGZLWKVWDQGDUGHUURUV
7DEOH6LPLODULW\IDFWRUVIRIWKHOHDNDJHRIWKHWKUHHIRUPXODWLRQVIRUPXODWLRQ&DVDUHIHUHQFH
)RUPXODWLRQV
I
$PLQ %PLQ
&PLQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU(QFDSVXODWLRQRI(*&*
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
/HDNDJH
7LPHGD\V
)LJXUH7KHLPSDFWRIWKHORDGLQJSHUFHQWDJHRQWKHOHDNDJHRI(*&*IURPWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVDVD
IXQFWLRQRIWLPH7KHH[SHULPHQWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQWULSOLFDWHVDQGDQDYHUDJHOHDNDJHZDVSORWWHGZLWKVWDQGDUG
HUURUV
7DEOH6LPLODULW\IDFWRUVIRIWKHOHDNDJHSURILOHVRIWKHIRXUIRUPXODWLRQVIRUPXODWLRQ(DVDUHIHUHQFH
)RUPXODWLRQV
$
'
(
)
I
6LQFH WKH OHDNDJH SURILOHV ZHUH VLPLODU WKH OHDNDJH GDWH RI (*&* IURP WKH EHHVZD[
PLFURVSKHUHV LQ IRUPXODWLRQ ' ZDV ILWWHG WR (TXDWLRQ RI WKH +LJXFKL VSKHULFDO PDWUL[
UHOHDVHNLQHWLFVDVDQH[DPSOHLQ)LJXUH7KHGHWHUPLQDWLRQFRHIILFLHQW5RIWKHILWWLQJ
ZDVLQGLFDWLQJWKDWWKH OHDNDJHSURILOHFRXOGDOVRIROORZDGLIIXVLRQFRQWUROOHGUHOHDVH
PHFKDQLVPWKHUHOHDVHUDWHFRQVWDQWNIURPWKHILWWLQJLVîV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU(QFDSVXODWLRQRI(*&*
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
5HOHDVH
7LPHGD\V
)LJXUH7KHOHDNDJHGDWDRI(*&*IURPWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVILWWHGE\+LJXFKLVSKHULFDOPDWUL[UHOHDVH
NLQHWLFVVROLGOLQHZLWKFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOVGDVKOLQHV
',6&866,21
7KH EHHVZD[ ZDV VHOHFWHG DV WKH FDUULHU PDWHULDO VLQFH LW LV D QDWXUDO LQHUW PDWHULDO WKDW LV
KLJKO\ K\GURSKRELF VR WKDW LW FRXOG VHUYH DV DQ H[FHOOHQW PRLVWXUH EDUULHU 0HOOHPD SDUWLFXODUO\VLQFHQRVXUIDFHFUDFNVDUHJHQHUDOO\REVHUYDEOH$VLPSOHDQGORZFRVWPHWKRG
RIPDNLQJEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVFRQWDLQLQJ(*&*ZDVRSWLPLVHGE\DGMXVWLQJWKHORDGLQJ
WKHYROXPHRIWKHZDWHUSKDVHWKHFKRLFHDQGTXDQWLW\RIVXUIDFWDQWDJLWDWLRQVSHHGDQGWLPH
RI HPXOVLILFDWLRQ ,W ZDV IRXQG WKDW WKH VSKHULFDO GLVFUHWH ZD[ PLFURVSKHUHV FRXOG RQO\ EH
SURGXFHGE\XVLQJWKHYY7ZHHQLQWKHZDWHUSKDVHDQGDQDJLWDWLRQVSHHGRI USP RWKHUZLVH DJJUHJDWHV RI LUUHJXODU ZD[ ZRXOG IRUP DIWHU VROLGLILFDWLRQ :KHQ WKH
DJLWDWLRQ WLPH GXULQJ WKH HPXOVLILFDWLRQ LQFUHDVHG VRWKDW PRUH PROWHQ EHHVZD[ JRW FXW E\
WKH LPSHOOHU EODGH WKH VL]H RI WKH PLFURVSKHUHV GHFUHDVHG VOLJKWO\ +RZHYHU D SURORQJHG
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU(QFDSVXODWLRQRI(*&*
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
DJLWDWLRQWLPHDOVRDOORZHGPRUH(*&*WRHVFDSHIURPWKHZD[LQWRWKHZDWHUSKDVHZKLFK
UHVXOWHGLQDFRQVLGHUDEOHUHGXFWLRQLQWKHHQFDSVXODWLRQHIILFLHQF\
:KHQ WKH ORDGLQJ RI WKH (*&* ZDV LQFUHDVHG IURP ( WR $ DQG ' WKHUHZDVQRVLJQLILFDQWLQFUHDVHLQWKHHQFDSVXODWLRQHIILFLHQF\RIWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHV
+RZHYHUIRUDIXUWKHUORDGLQJRIWKH(*&*SRZGHULQWRWKHPROWHQZD[XSWR)
WKH HQFDSVXODWLRQ HIILFLHQF\ GHFUHDVHG IURP WR WKH DFWXDO DPRXQW RI (*&*
HQFDSVXODWHG LQ WKH EHHVZD[ LQ IRUPXODWLRQ ) ZDV HTXDO WRWKDWRI ' DV OLVWHG LQ 7DEOH 7KLV KDV GHPRQVWUDWHGWKDW XQGHU WKH FXUUHQW HPXOVLILFDWLRQ FRQGLWLRQV J(*&*
ZDV WKH PD[LPXP DPRXQWWKDW FRXOG EH HQFDSVXODWHG LQ WKH EHHVZD[ E\ WKLV PHWKRG 7KLV
PD\ EH H[SODLQHG RQ WKH EDVLV WKDW VLQFH QDWXUDO EHHVZD[ FRQVLVWV RI HVWHUV RI ORQJFKDLQV
DOFRKROVDQGIDWW\DFLGV0HOOHPD9DQ%HQWKXPHWDOWKHKLJKO\ZDWHUVROXEOH(*&*
LV SRRUO\ VROXEOH LQ WKH OLTXLG EHHVZD[ DQG LV WKXV UDWKHU GLVSHUVHG DV D VXVSHQVLRQ XQGHU
DJLWDWLRQGXULQJWKHSUHSDUDWLRQSURFHVV:KHQEHLQJHPXOVLILHGWKH(*&*SDUWLWLRQHG LQWR
ZDWHUSKDVHUDSLGO\LQWKHRSWLPXPFRQGLWLRQWKLVFRUUHVSRQGHGWRQHDUO\RIWKH(*&*
GLIIXVLQJIURPWKHZD[LQWRWKHZDWHU7KHUHIRUHLWLVLPSRUWDQWWRFRQWUROWKHWLPHGXULQJWKH
HPXOVLILFDWLRQWRDYRLGWKHSDUWLWLRQLQJRI(*&*LQWRWKHZDWHUSKDVHDVZHOODVRSWLPLVLQJ
WKHORDGLQJRI(*&*LQRUGHUWRDYRLGORZHQFDSVXODWLRQHIILFLHQF\
7KHLQYLWURUHOHDVHRI(*&*IURPWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVZDVYHU\OLPLWHGZLWKOHVVWKDQ
EHLQJ UHOHDVHG DIWHU K 1HLWKHU D SURORQJHG DJLWDWLRQ WLPH LH VPDOOHU PLFURVSKHUHV
QRU D KLJKHU DPRXQW RI (*&* ORDGHG LQ WKH ZD[ UHVXOWHG LQ D IDVWHU UHOHDVH 7KLV
GHPRQVWUDWHG WKDW DOWKRXJK EHHVZD[ LV DQ LGHDO FDUULHU PDWHULDO IRU SURWHFWLQJ (*&* IURP
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU(QFDSVXODWLRQRI(*&*
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
WKH VXUURXQGLQJ HQYLURQPHQW DQG HIIHFWLYHO\ SUHYHQWHG LWV UHOHDVLQJ WKH UHOHDVH LQ KXPDQ
LQWHVWLQDOWUDFWLVSUHGLFWHGWREHSRRUEDVHGRQWKHREVHUYHGLQYLWURGDWD7KHUHZDVDUHSRUW
WKDW D EXUVW UHOHDVH RI LQGRPHWKDFLQEHHVZD[ RFFXUUHG ZLWKLQ K LQ D S+ SKRVSKDWH
EXIIHU VROXWLRQ KRZHYHU WKH UHVXOW RI WKLV ZRUN VKRZHG D UDWKHU VORZ UHOHDVH DQG LW ZDV LQ
DFFRUGDQFH ZLWK WKH UHOHDVH RI WKH WKHRSK\OOLQH IURP EHHVZD[ SHOOHWV PDWUL[ V\VWHP
&KHER\LQD DQG :\DQGW FRPSDUHG ZLWK D UHOHDVH RI WKHRSK\OOLQH IURP FHW\O
HVWHUZD[ZKLFKLVPRUHK\GURSKLOLFWKDQEHHVZD[
7DEOH7KHDPRXQWRIWKHHQFDSVXODWHG(*&*LQWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVFDOFXODWHGIURPWKHLUHQFDSVXODWLRQ
HIILFLHQF\LQVHFWLRQ
)RUPXODWLRQV
$
%
&
'
(
)
(QFDSVXODWLRQHIILFLHQF\
(QFDSVXODWHG(*&*J
7KH WRWDO OHDNDJH RI WKH HQFDSVXODWHG (*&* IURP WKH EHHVZD[ PLFURVSKHUHV IRU DOO WKH
IRUPXODWLRQVZDVQRPRUHWKDQZKLFKFRUUHVSRQGVWRWKHOHDNDJHUHVXOWHGREWDLQHGE\
0HOOHPD 0HOOHPD 2Q WKLV EDVLV EHHVZD[ LV SRWHQWLDOO\ D ORQJ WHUP SUHVHUYDWLRQ
FDUULHUIRU(*&*
&KHER\LQD&KHER\LQDGHVFULEHGWKHWKUHHVWHSVIRUWKHUHOHDVHIURPDZD[PDWUL[DV
SHQHWUDWLRQRIWKHGLVVROXWLRQPHGLXPLQWRWKHZD[PDWUL[GLVVROXWLRQRIWKHGLVSHUVHG
GUXJSDUWLFOHVDQGGLIIXVLRQRIWKHGLVVROYHGGUXJWKURXJKWKHZD[PDWUL[7KHILWWLQJVRI
WKH UHOHDVH DQG OHDNDJH SURILOH E\ WKH +LJXFKL VSKHULFDO PDWUL[ UHOHDVH NLQHWLFV%DNHU
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU(QFDSVXODWLRQRI(*&*
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
/RQVGDOHPRGHOVXJJHVWWKDWWKHPHFKDQLVPZDVSUREDEO\DGLIIXVLRQFRQWUROOHGDQGWKDWWKH
GLIIXVLRQ RI (*&* LQ WKH ZD[ PDWUL[ ZDV WKH UDWHGHWHUPLQLQJ VWHS +RZHYHU VLQFH WKH
UHOHDVHRIWKH(*&*IURPWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVLVYHU\OLPLWHGLWZDVPRUHGHVLUDEOHWR
FDUU\RXWDIXUWKHULQYHVWLJDWLRQRQWKHUHOHDVH PHFKDQLVPZLWK PRUHUHOHDVHGDWD)URPWKH
PHDVXUHG UHOHDVH FRQVWDQW N WKH GLIIXVLRQ FRHIILFLHQW RI (*&* LQ WKH EHHVZD[ FRXOG EH
FDOFXODWHGIURP
'&V
LQ(TXDWLRQLI&VFDQEHREWDLQHG
U &
&21&/86,216$1')8785(:25.
$QHIIHFWLYHSURWHFWLRQRI(*&*DJDLQVWWKHHQYLURQPHQWZDVDFKLHYHGE\WKHSUHSDUDWLRQRI
EHHVZD[ PLFURVSKHUHV DV D FDUULHU 7KH PLFURVSKHUHV ZHUH SURGXFHG E\ DQ HPXOVLILHG
FRROLQJ LQGXFHGVROLGLILFDWLRQSURFHVVDQGZHUHRIWKH PDWUL[W\SHWKDWGRHVQRWUHTXLUHDQ\
DGGLWLRQDOFRDWLQJ7KHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVZHUHUHJXODULQVKDSHZLWKURXJKVXUIDFHVDQG
D YROXPH PRPHQW PHDQ VL]H RI P 3URORQJHG DJLWDWLRQ UHVXOWHG LQ VOLJKWO\ VPDOOHU
PLFURVSKHUHV DQG D KLJKHU ORDGLQJ SHUFHQWDJH UHVXOWHG LQ ODUJHU GLDPHWHUV 1HLWKHU WKH
DJLWDWLRQWLPHQRUWKHORDGLQJKDGDVLJQLILFDQWLPSDFWRQWKHHQFDSVXODWLRQHIILFLHQF\'XHWR
WKH KLJKO\ K\GURSKRELF QDWXUH RI EHHVZD[ WKH RSWLPLVHG IRUPXODWLRQ \LHOGHG HQFDSVXODWLRQ HIILFLHQF\ 7KH LQ YLWUR UHOHDVH SURILOH RI (*&* IURP WKH EHHVZD[
PLFURVSKHUHV DW R& ZDV OHVV WKDQ DIWHU K DQG WKH OHDNDJH RI (*&* LQ WKH ZDWHU
VROXWLRQ DW URRP WHPSHUDWXUH ZDV DIWHU GD\V 7KH ILWWLQJV RI WKH UHOHDVH DQG
OHDNDJH SURILOHV E\ WKH +LJXFKL VSKHULFDO PDWUL[ UHOHDVH NLQHWLFV%DNHU/RQVGDOH PRGHO
LQGLFDWHG D GLIIXVLRQFRQWUROOHG PHFKDQLVP +RZHYHU PRUH UHOHDVH GDWD DUH UHTXLUHUG WR
FRQILUPWKHUHOHDVHPHFKDQLVP7KHVHUHVXOWVKDYHGHPRQVWUDWHGWKDWEHHVZD[FRXOGEHXVHG
DVDFDUULHUPDWUL[PDWHULDOIRU(*&*DQGPRUHSUHIHUDEO\DORQJWHUPSUHVHUYDWLRQFDUULHU
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU(QFDSVXODWLRQRI(*&*
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
,Q IXWXUHZRUNGLIIHUHQWHGLEOHZD[HVFRXOGEHVHOHFWHG IRUDIRUPXODWLRQZLWK LPSURYHG LQ
YLWURUHOHDVHDQGDGLIIHUHQWIRUPRIWKHIRUPXODWLRQVXFKDVWDEOHWVFRXOGEH DOVRH[SORUHG
0RUH LQYHVWLJDWLRQ RQ WKH UHOHDVH DQG OHDNDJH SURILOH FRXOG EH FDUULHG RXW IRU D EHWWHU
XQGHUVWDQGLQJRQWKHUHOHDVHPHFKDQLVPRIWKHZD[V\VWHP
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU'LVFXVVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&+$37(5 ',6&866,21
&+$5$&7(5,6$7,212)7+(/,32620(0(0%5$1(
7KH PDMRU DEVRUSWLRQ EDUULHU RIWKH *,WUDFW LV WKH VLPSOH FROXPQDU HSLWKHOLXP WKH FHOOV LQ
WKHRXWHUOD\HUZLWKJREOHWFHOOVZKLFKDUHORFDWHGDWWKHEDVHPHPEUDQHWKDWLVDWWDFKHGWR
WKHFRQQHFWLYHWLVVXHVDQGEORRGFDSLOODULHVIRUWUDQVSRUWLQJDEVRUEHGQXWULWLRQ&DFHFL
DVGHVFULEHGLQ&KDSWHU/LSRVRPHVKDYHEHHQZLGHO\VWXGLHGIRUPLPLFNLQJFHOOVEHFDXVH
RIWKHXQLTXH OLSLG ELOD\HUHQFORVHG YHVLFOH VWUXFWXUH7KH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH LVVKRZQ IRU
WKHILUVWWLPHXVLQJFU\R6(0&KDSWHU
$VGHVFULEHGE\)ODWHQ)ODWHQ'KDQLNXODHWDOWZRGLIIHUHQWVL]HVRIOLSRVRPHFRXOG
EHDFKLHYHGE\UHSHDWHGH[WUXVLRQWKURXJKQPDQGQPILOWHUPHPEUDQHV,WKDVEHHQ
VKRZQLQWKHFXUUHQWZRUNXVLQJFU\R6(0WKDWWKHVPDOOHUOLSRVRPHVKDYHSDUWLDOO\ILOOHGWKH
SRUHVRIWKHPHPEUDQHWRHQVXUHDUREXVWVXSSRUWIRUWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQRIDFRPSDFWOD\HURI
WKHODUJHUOLSRVRPHVIRUPLPLFNLQJELRORJLFDOFHOOV7KHSHUPHDELOLW\RIFDIIHLQHWKURXJKWKH
GLIIHUHQWFRPSRQHQWVRIWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHLQFOXGLQJWKHEODQNVXEVWUDWHPHPEUDQHZDV
DOVRPHDVXUHGKHUHDQGZLOOEHGLVFXVVHGODWHU7KHGHSRVLWLRQRIWKHOLSRVRPHLQWRDQGRQWR
WKH VXEVWUDWH PHPEUDQH ZDV DFKLHYHG E\ D KLJK VSHHG FHQWULIXJH $Q DWWHPSW ZDV PDGH WR
VWXG\ WKH HIIHFW RI SURORQJHG FHQWULIXJDO IRUFH RQ WKH GHSRVLWLRQ RI WKH OLSRVRPH E\
LQFUHDVLQJWKHFHQWULIXJHWLPH$OWKRXJKDSURORQJHGSURFHVV PDGHWKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH
OHVVSHUPHDEOH IRUFDIIHLQH LWZDVIRXQGWKDWWKHUHZDVDFRQVLGHUDEO\JUHDWHUSRVVLELOLW\RI
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU'LVFXVVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
GDPDJHWRWKHPHPEUDQHVXFKDVUXSWXUHDQGIUDFWXUHDQGWKHUHVXOWVDUHQRWGHVFULEHGLQWKH
FXUUHQWZRUN
&217,18286',))86,217+528*+7+(/,32620(:,7+35(
75($70(17
0DVVDEVRUSWLRQDQGWKHPROHFXODUGLIIXVLRQZLWKSUHWUHDWPHQW
7KH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH PRGHO KDV EHHQ GHYHORSHG IURP WKH ZRUNRI )ODWHQ HW DO )ODWHQ
%XQMHVHWDO)ODWHQ'KDQLNXODHWDO)ODWHQ6NDUHWDO)ODWHQ/XWKPDQHW
DO VLQFH LW FDQ SURYLGH UDSLG DQG LPSURYHG SUHGLFWLRQ RI KXPDQ DEVRUSWLRQ E\
VXFFHVVIXOO\GHSRVLWLQJWKHOLSRVRPHLQDVXEVWUDWHPHPEUDQH7KHGLIIXVLRQRIFDIIHLQHZDV
ILUVWPHDVXUHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKHLULQFUHPHQWDOPHWKRG)ODWHQ'KDQLNXODHWDODQGWKH
SHUPHDELOLW\ ZLWKRXW SUHWUHDWPHQW î FPV LV VPDOOHU WKDQ WKH UHSRUWHG YDOXH
îFPV)ODWHQ'KDQLNXODHWDOE\DIDFWRURIDERXWWZRSUREDEO\GXH
WRVPDOOGLIIHUHQFHVLQWKHSURFHGXUHVDQGFKHPLFDOVXVHGLQWKHWZRODERUDWRULHV7KHUHVXOW
VKRZHGDODJWLPH LQWKHILUVWKDQGRQO\DIWHUKZDVDFRQVWDQWGLIIXVLRQUDWH REVHUYHG
3UHWUHDWPHQW RI WKH PHPEUDQH ZLWK D FDIIHLQH VROXWLRQ ZLWK WKH VDPH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ DV WKH
GRQRUVROXWLRQUHGXFHGRUHYHQHOLPLQDWHGWKHODJWLPHDIWHUWRWDOLPPHUVLRQ
,QSULQFLSOHWKHSHUPHDELOLW\VKRXOGEHDFRQVWDQWLIWKHUHLVQRSK\VLFDORUFKHPLFDOFKDQJH
LQ WKH PHPEUDQH 7KH REVHUYHG ODJ WLPH LV DFWXDOO\ WKH WLPH GXULQJ ZKLFK WKH GLIIXVDQW
SDUWLWLRQV IURP WKH EXON VROXWLRQ LQ WKH GRQRU FKDPEHU LQWR WKH OLSRVRPH XQWLO WKH
FRQFHQWUDWLRQV LQ WKH GRQRU VLGH DQG LQ WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH HTXLOLEUDWH :KHQ WKH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU'LVFXVVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
PHPEUDQH ZDV SUHWUHDWHG RQ ERWK VLGHV WKHUH ZDV D PD[LPXP UDWH RI GLIIXVLRQ VLQFH WKH
GLIIXVDQW KDG SDUWLWLRQHG LQWR WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH DQG WKH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ UHDFKHG
HTXLOLEULXP ZLWK WKH SUHWUHDWPHQW VROXWLRQ $V D UHVXOW RI WKHVH REVHUYDWLRQV WKH PDVV
DEVRUSWLRQSDUWLWLRQLQJE\WKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHZDVLQYHVWLJDWHG
$Q HTXLOLEULXP DPRXQW RI î PRO FDIIHLQH ZDV DEVRUEHG LQ WKH OLSRVRPH
PHPEUDQHZLWKLQ KZKLFK PHDQVWKDWUHPDUNDEO\RIWKHGLIIXVDQW LQWKH P/
GRQRU VROXWLRQ ZDV DEVRUEHG E\ WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH 7KLV UHVXOW LV FRPSDUDEOH WR WKH
GLIIHUHQFH LQ WKH DPRXQW RI WKH GLIIXVHG FDIIHLQH ZKHQ WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH ZDV SUH
WUHDWHGDQGXQWUHDWHG7KLVDFFRXQWVIRUWKHKRIODJWLPHZLWKWKHLQFUHPHQWDOPHWKRGYL]
WKH FDIIHLQH SDUWLWLRQHG LQWR WKH PHPEUDQH E\ EHLQJ DEVRUEHG DQG UHWDLQHG ZLWK D PLQRU
UHOHDVH LQWR WKH DFFHSWRU FKDPEHU RYHU WKH VDPH WLPH SHULRG 7KH UHOHDVH UDWH RI FDIIHLQH
LQFUHDVHGJUDGXDOO\ZLWKDQLQFUHDVLQJDPRXQWDEVRUEHGE\WKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHXQWLO DQ
HTXLOLEULXPFRQFHQWUDWLRQZDVDFKLHYHG7KHFXUUHQWZRUNKDVVKRZQWKDWWKHSHUPHDELOLW\RI
FDIIHLQHWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHZLWKRXWSUHWUHDWPHQWLVRQO\DERXWKDOIRIWKDWZLWK
SUHWUHDWPHQWLQGLFDWLQJWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIDSUHWUHDWPHQWRIWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH,WDOVR
LQGLFDWHG WKDW WKH PHDVXUHPHQW RI SHUPHDELOLW\ ZLWKRXW SUHWUHDWLQJ WKH PHPEUDQH LV
SDUWLFXODUO\GLIILFXOWIRUFRPSRXQGVKDYLQJDKLJKSDUWLWLRQFRHIILFLHQWVLQFHLWFDQUHVXOWLQD
IDOVH µ]HUR¶ YDOXH GXH WR D ODUJH SURSRUWLRQ RI WKH FRPSRXQG EHLQJ DEVRUEHG E\ WKH
PHPEUDQH
7KHDXWKRUVRIWKHLQFUHPHQWDOPHWKRG%DQJKDP+LOOHWDO)ODWHQ%XQMHVHWDO
)ODWHQ'KDQLNXODHWDO)ODWHQ6NDUHWDO)ODWHQ/XWKPDQHWDODVVXPHG
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU'LVFXVVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
D VWHDG\VWDWH GLIIXVLRQ DIWHU D K ODJ WLPH VLQFH WKH PHDVXUHPHQWV ZHUH FRQVLGHUHG WR EH
FRQVLVWHQWZLWKVLQNFRQGLWLRQVLHWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQWKHGRQRUFKDPEHUVDUHDVVXPHGWR
UHPDLQFRQVWDQWDQGWKRVHLQWKHDFFHSWRUFKDPEHUVDUHDVVXPHGWREHDOZD\V]HUR+RZHYHU
WKHGHWHUPLQDWLRQRIWKHODJWLPHZDVLOOGHILQHGDQGWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHGRQRUFKDPEHU
GHFUHDVHGVLJQLILFDQWO\GXHWRDEVRUSWLRQDQGGLIIXVLRQ7KLVUHVXOWVLQDVPDOOHUSHUPHDELOLW\
ZLWKDUHGXFHGGULYLQJ IRUFHZKHQDSSO\LQJ (TXDWLRQ$FRQWLQXRXVSURFHGXUHZDVWKXV
FDUULHG RXWWR HQVXUHWKDWWKH FRQFHQWUDWLRQV FRXOG EH PHDVXUHG E\ D 89 VSHFWURPHWHU DQG
LQVWHDG RI DVVXPLQJ VWHDG\VWDWH D PDWKHPDWLFDO PRGHO EDVHG RQ WKH WLPHGHSHQGHQW
FRQFHQWUDWLRQV LQ WKH GRQRU DQG DFFHSWRU FKDPEHUV ZDV HPSOR\HG WR FDOFXODWH WKH
SHUPHDELOLW\ YDOXHV 7KH PRGHO DVVXPHG WKDW WKH VROXWLRQV LQ ERWK WKH GRQRU DQG DFFHSWRU
FKDPEHUV ZHUH ZHOO PL[HG VRWKDWWKH ERXQGDU\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ DWWKH PHPEUDQH LQWHUIDFH LV
HTXDO WR WKH EXON FRQFHQWUDWLRQ 7KLV DVVXPSWLRQ ZDV YDOLGDWHG E\ PHDVXULQJ WKH
SHUPHDELOLW\XQGHUWKHVDPHFRQGLWLRQVH[FHSWWKDWWKHFKDPEHUVZHUHDJLWDWHGZLWKDVKDNHU
,W ZDV IRXQG WKDW WKH SHUPHDELOLW\ RI FDIIHLQH WKURXJK WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH ZDV
LQGHSHQGHQW RI D WKH SUHWUHDWPHQW WLPH IRU WLPHV ! K DQG E WKH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI WKH
GRQRU VROXWLRQ ,PSRUWDQW IDFWRUV ZHUH WKDW WKH PHPEUDQH ZDV VDWXUDWHG ZLWK WKH GLIIXVDQW
DIWHU K DQG WKDW WKHUH ZDV QR HYLGHQFH RI D ORVV LQ LQWHJULW\ DQG VWDELOLW\ XQGHU WKHVH
FRQGLWLRQV &RQVHTXHQWO\ WKLV KDV HVWDEOLVKHG WKH VXLWDELOLW\ RI WKH FRQWLQXRXV PHWKRG IRU
REWDLQLQJYDOXHVRIWKHSHUPHDELOLW\
7KH GLIIXVLRQ FRHIILFLHQW FRXOG EH REWDLQHG IURP WKH SHUPHDELOLW\ YDOXHV LI WKH SDUWLWLRQ
FRHIILFLHQW RI WKH GLIIXVDQW EHWZHHQ WKH OLSRVRPH DQG ZDWHU SKDVH LV NQRZQ 7KXV WKLV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU'LVFXVVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
PHWKRG FRXOG RIIHU XVHIXO PHDQV RI XQGHUVWDQGLQJ WKH UROH RI PROHFXODU DUFKLWHFWXUH DQG
SRODULW\LQDGGLWLRQWRSUHGLFWLQJKXPDQDEVRUSWLRQ
7KHLPSDFWRIWKHGHVRUSWLRQRQWKHSHUPHDELOLW\
3UHWUHDWLQJ WKH PHPEUDQH FDQ HIIHFWLYHO\ UHGXFH RU HOLPLQDWH WKH XQGHUHVWLPDWLRQ RI WKH
SHUPHDELOLW\ KRZHYHU DQ\ SRVVLEOH RYHUHVWLPDWLRQ VKRXOG EH FRQVLGHUHG 7KH 0$7/$%
PRGHOOLQJVXJJHVWVWKDWDUDSLGGHVRUSWLRQPD\UHVXOWLQDODUJHUSHUPHDELOLW\FDOFXODWHGIURP
(TXDWLRQ WKXV WKHUH FDQ EH DQ RYHUHVWLPDWLRQ RI WKH SHUPHDELOLW\ LI WKH GHVRUSWLRQ LV
LJQRUHG,WZDVDQDO\VHGWKDWWKHSHUPHDELOLW\RIFDIIHLQHZDVQRWVLJQLILFDQWO\LQIOXHQFHGE\
WKH GHVRUSWLRQ RI WKH FDIIHLQH $OWKRXJK WKH YDOXHV RI . IRU WKH PROHFXOHV VWXGLHG KHUH DUH
XQNQRZQ H[FHSW IRU FDIIHLQH RQ WKH EDVLV RI WKHLU SDUWLWLRQ FRHIILFLHQWV EHWZHHQ D
ZDWHURFWDQH V\VWHP 7DEOH LW ZDV FDOFXODWHG WKDWWKH SHUPHDELOLWLHV ZHUH QRW DIIHFWHG
VLJQLILFDQWO\E\HVWLPDWLQJWKHLU$DQG%YDOXHVEDVHGRQWKHYDOXHVRIFDIIHLQH7DEOH
7KH SDUWLWLRQ FRHIILFLHQW IRU FDIIHLQH LQ 7DEOH LV a ZKLFK LV OHVV WKDQ WKH YDOXH REWDLQHGLQWKHFXUUHQWZRUNIURPWKHDEVRUSWLRQGDWD+RZHYHUVLPLODUSHUPHDELOLWLHVZHUH
REWDLQHG IRU ERWK YDOXHV RI WKH SDUWLWLRQ FRHIILFLHQW 7KXV LW FDQ EH FRQFOXGHG WKDW WKH
GHVRUSWLRQ RI WKH GLIIXVDQWV IURP WKH PHPEUDQH ZDV QRW D VLJQLILFDQW IDFWRU LQ GHWHUPLQLQJ
SHUPHDELOLW\UHVXOWV
7DEOH7KHSXEOLVKHGRFWDQHZDWHUSDUWLWLRQFRHIILFLHQWVRIWKHGLIIXVDQWV=KX-LDQJHWDO&RUWL0DHVWUHOOL
HWDO
3DUDFHWDPRO
7KHRSK\OOLQH
&DIIHLQH
$F\FORYLU
1DGRORO
$PSKRWHULFLQ%
3DUWLWLRQFRHIILFLHQW
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU'LVFXVVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
7DEOH3HUPHDELOLW\YDOXHVQRUPDOLVHGE\WKHYDOXHRIFDIIHLQH
D
&RQWLQXRXVPRGHO
E
&RQWLQXRXVPRGHOZLWKGHVRUSWLRQ
3DUDFHWDPRO
7KHRSK\OOLQH
&DIIHLQH
$F\FORYLU
1DGRORO
$PSKRWHULFLQ%
D
'DWDILWWHGWR(TXDWLRQ
E
'DWDILWWHGWR(TXDWLRQXVLQJ0$7/$%
$FRPSDULVRQRIWKHSHUPHDELOLW\REWDLQHGIURPWKHLQYLWURDVVD\VZLWK)D
7KHKXPDQDEVRUSWLRQ YDOXHV)DRIWKHVL[PRGHOGLIIXVDQWVDUHSORWWHGDVDIXQFWLRQRI
WKHFDIIHLQHQRUPDOLVHGSHUPHDELOLW\ LQ )LJXUHZKLFKZDVREWDLQHG LQWKHFXUUHQWVWXG\
IURPWKHLPSURYHGSURFHGXUH3ORWVEDVHGRQGDWDSXEOLVKHGXVLQJWKH3$03$PRGHO-$
5XHOO$YGHHIDQG7VLQPDQWKHVROXWLRQEDVHG3$03$ZLWKDK\GURSKLOLFILOWHU
=KX -LDQJ HW DO WKH OLSLGRLOOLSLG WULOD\HU 3$03$ PRGHO &KHQ 0XUDZVNL HW DO
DQGWKHFHOOEDVHGFDFRPRGHODUHDOVRVKRZQIRUFRPSDULVRQSXUSRVHV
3$03$ PRGHOV KDYH EHHQ SURYHG WR EH D YHU\ VXFFHVVIXO SUHGLFWLYH DVVD\ EHLQJ KLJK
WKURXJKSXWDQGORZFRVW+RZHYHUWKHFRQYHQWLRQDOPHWKRGZLWKWKHK\GURSKRELFPHPEUDQH
ZKLFK ZDV FRDWHG ZLWK ZY HJJ OHFLWKLQ GLVVRYOHG LQ Q GRGHFDQH IDLOHG WR JLYH D
FRUUHFWSUHGLFLWRQRIZHOODEVRUEHGPROHFXOHVVXFKDVFDIIHLQHDQGWKHRSK\OOLQHDVVKRZQLQ
)LJXUHE,WKDVEHHQSURSRVHGWKDWWKHH[FHVVVROYHQWXVHGLQWKLV PHWKRGFRXOGUHWDLQ
PROHFXOHVZLWKDKLJKSDUWLWLRQFRHIILFLHQWDQGIRUSRODUPROHFXOHVPRUHHQHUJ\LVUHTXLUHG
WR SHUPHDWH WKURXJK DQ DONDQH EDUULHU GXH WR WKH ODFN RI K\GURJHQ ERQGLQJ LQ WKH VROYHQW
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU'LVFXVVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
$YGHHIDQG7VLQPDQ7KHGDWDREWDLQHGXVLQJWKH3$03$K\GURSKLOLFDQG3$03$
WULOD\HUPRGHOVDUHVKRZQLQ)LJXUHFDQGGWKH\DUHLPSURYHG3$03$PRGHOVZKHUH
WKH ILUVW RQH XVHG D K\GURSKLOLF VXEVWUDWH PHPEUDQH WR DYRLG WKH DGGLWLRQDO EDUULHU RI D
K\GURSKRELF PHPEUDQHZKLOHWKHVHFRQGHQVXUHVWKDWWKHUHLVDOLSLGELO\HU LQWKHVXEVWUDWH
PHPEUDQH ZLWKRXW H[FHVV RI VROYHQW 7KH SUHGLFWLRQ RI WKH KXPDQ DEVRUSWLRQ LV FOHDUO\
LPSURYHG FRPSDUHG ZLWK WKH WUDGLWLRQDO 3$03$ PHWKRG QHYHUWKHOHVV WKH PHWKRGV
XQGHUHVWLPDWHGWKHSHUPHDELOLW\RIFHUWDLQPROHFXOHVWKDWFDQJLYHIDOVH]HURYDOXHV
+XPDQDEVRUSWLRQ)D
+XPDQDEVRUSWLRQ)D
&DIIHLQH
7KHRSK\OOLQH
3DUDFHWDPRO
1DGRORO
&RQWLQXRXVPHWKRG
$F\FORYLU
,QFUHPHQWDOPHWKRG
3DUDFHWDPRO
1DGRORO
$PSKRWHULFLQ %
&DIIHLQH
7KHRSK\OOLQH
3$03$VROXWLRQ
$F\FORYLU
1RUPDOLVHGSHUPHDELOLW\
1RUPDOLVHGSHUPHDELOLW\
DE
&DIIHLQH
7KHRSK\OOLQH
+XPDQDEVRUSWLRQ)D
+XPDQDEVRUSWLRQ)D
3DUDFHWDPRO
1DGRORO
$F\FORYLU
3$03$K\GURSKLOLF
$PSKRWHULFLQ%
&DIIHLQH
7KHRSK\OOLQH
1DGRORO
$F\FORYLU
3$03$WULOD\HU
1RUPDOLVHGSHUPHDELOLW\
1RUPDOLVHGSHUPHDELOLW\
FG
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU'LVFXVVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
+XPDQDEVRUSWLRQ)D
&DIIHLQH
7KHRSK\OOLQH
3DUDFHWDPRO
1DGRORO
$F\FORYLU
&DFR
$PSKRWHULFLQ%
1RUPDOLVHGSHUPHDELOLW\
H
)LJXUH&RUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQKXPDQDEVRUSWLRQDQGQRUPDOLVHGSHUPHDELOLW\REWDLQHGIURPWKHIROORZLQJLQYLWUR
PRGHOVDLQFUHPHQWDO)ODWHQ'KDQLNXODHWDODQGFRQWLQXRXVPHWKRGVEVROXWLRQEDVHG3$03$-$
5XHOO$YGHHIDQG7VLQPDQF3$03$ZLWKK\GURSKLOLFILOWHU=KX-LDQJHWDOGWULOD\HU
3$03$&KHQ0XUDZVNLHWDOH&DFRFHOOPRGHO<D]GDQLDQ*O\QQHWDO<DPDVKLWD)XUXED\DVKL
HWDO6LLVVDOR/DLQHHWDO
7KHFXUUHQWOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHZKLFKLQYROYHVQRVROYHQWLQWKHPHPEUDQHVKRZVDFORVH
FRUUHODWLRQZLWKKXPDQDEVRUSWLRQ+RZHYHUWKHLQFUHPHQWDOPRGHOGRHVQRWVHSDUDWHWKRVH
WKRVHPROHFXOHVZLWKDPRGHUDWHDQGDSRRUKXPDQDEVRUSWLRQ)DZKLFKDUHFRQVLGHUDEO\
XQGHUHVWLPDWHG ,Q )LJXUH D WKH FRQWLQXRXV OLSRVRPH PHWKRG DFKLHYHG D FORVHU
SUHGLFWLRQIRUWKHPROHFXOHVZLWKVPDOOYDOXHVRIWKHSHUPHDELOLW\VXFKDVQDGRORODF\FORYLU
DQGDPSKRWHULFLQ%7KLVLVODUJHO\GXHWRWKHSUHWUHDWPHQWRIWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHZKLFK
VDWXUDWHVWKHOLSRVRPHWRUHDFKWKHHTLOLEULXPFRQFHQWUDWLRQRIWKHGRQRUFKDPEHUDQGLQWKH
OLSRVRPH 0RUHRYHU WKH SHUPHDELOLWLHV RI WKHVH PROHFXOHV DUH XQGHUHVWLPDWHG E\ WKH RWKHU
HVWDEOLVKHG PRGHOV - $ 5XHOO $YGHHI DQG 7VLQPDQ =KX -LDQJ HW DO BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU'LVFXVVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KHQ0XUDZVNLHWDOWRWKHH[WHQWWKDWPRVWRIWKHPVXJJHVWWKDWWKHSHUPHDELOLW\LV
DSSUR[LPDWHO\]HUREXWWKHLQYLYRGDWDVKRZWKDWWKLVVKRXOGQRWEHWKHFDVH
7KH &DFR PRGHO LV D PRQROD\HU RI LQWHVWLQDO HSLWKHOLDO FHOO OLQHV WKDW SUHGLFWV GLIIHUHQW
SDWKZD\VRIWKHGUXJWUDQVSRUW$VWKHPRGHOGLIIXVDQWVZHUHNQRZQWRGLIIXVHSDVVLYHO\YLD
WKH FHOO PHPEUDQH WKH UHVXOWV RI WKH LPSURYHG OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH ZHUH FRPSDUDEOH ZLWK
WKRVH IURP WKH &DFR <D]GDQLDQ *O\QQ HW DO <DPDVKLWD )XUXED\DVKL HW DO 6LLVVDOR /DLQH HW DO DV VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH H *LYHQ WKH GLIILFXOW\ RI WKH FHOO
FXOWLYDWLRQDQGWKHUHODWLYHO\KLJKFRVWRIFDUU\LQJRXWD&DFRH[SHULPHQWWKHPXFKVLPSOHU
DQG ORZHUFRVW OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH PRGHO LV D VLJQLILFDQW LPSURYHPHQW DV D ILUVW VWDJH LQ
YLWUR DVVD\ EHIRUH D IXUWKHU PRUH FRPSOLFDWHG PHWKRG LV FDUULHG RXW EDVHG RQ KXPDQ
DEVRUSWLRQSUHGLFWLRQ
7+(3+<6,2&+(0,&$/(1+$1&(0(172)7+(02/(&8/$5
',))86,217+528*+7+(/,32620(0(0%5$1(
7KHLPSDFWRIHWKDQRORQWKHGLIIXVLRQWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
(WKDQRO LV D ZLGHO\ XVHG GLIIXVLRQ HQKDQFHU GLIIHUHQW PHFKDQLVPV KDYH EHHQ SURSRVHG
0RVHU.ULZHWHWDOLQSDUWLFXODULWFDQHQKDQFHWKHGLIIXVLRQFRHIILFLHQWWKHDSSDUHQW
SDUWLWLRQFRHIILFLHQWRIWKHGLIIXVDQWDQGWKHVROXELOLW\LQWKHPHPEUDQH ,QDGD1DNDJDZDHW
DO3HUVKLQJ6LOYHUHWDO7KHSHUWXUEDWLRQRIWKH OLSLGELOD\HUVE\ HWKDQROZDV
VWXGLHG E\ %DUU\ DQG *DZULVFK DQG .RHQLJ DQG *DZULVFK ZKR IRXQG WKDW LW
FRXOG GLVUXSW WKH PROHFXODU SDFNLQJ LQ WKH ULJLG UHJLRQ RI WKH JO\FHURO EDFNERQH ZKLFK
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU'LVFXVVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
UHVXOWHG LQD ODWHUDOH[SDQVLRQRIWKHELOD\HUDQGWKDWFRXOGVLJQLILFDQWO\GLVRUGHUWKHHQWLUH
DFU\OFKDLQOHDGLQJWRIOXLGLVDWLRQRIWKHPHPEUDQHOLSLGV)XUWKHUPRUHPROHFXODUG\QDPLFV
0' &KDQGD DQG %DQG\RSDGK\D\ *XUWRYHQNR DQG $QZDU UHYHDOHG WKDW
HWKDQRO LQWHUDFWV VWURQJO\ ZLWK WKH SKRVSKRFKROLQH KHDGJURXSV UHRULHQWLQJ WKHP WRZDUGWKH
DTXHRXV OD\HU ZKLFK PRGLILHV WKH G\QDPLF EHKDYLRXU RI ERWK WKH OLSLG DQG WKH ZDWHU
PROHFXOHV7KHSK\VLRFKHPLFDOHQKDQFHPHQWRIQHDUO\RIWKHGLIIXVLRQIRUFDIIHLQHE\
HWKDQROLVWKXVDQRXWFRPHRIWKHVHPROHFXODULQWHUDFWLRQVEHWZHHQHWKDQRODQGOLSLGELOD\HU
ZKLFK PDNHV WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH PRUH IOXLG DQG SHUPHDEOH IRU PROHFXODU GLIIXVLRQ
3DWUD6DORQHQHWDO7KLVVXJJHVWVWKDWDIRUPXODWLRQRIKLJKO\FRQFHQWUDWHGHWKDQRO
RUDVWURQJDOFRKROLFGULQNZRXOG KDYHD FRQVLGHUDEOH LPSDFWRQELRORJLFDO PHPEUDQHVDQG
KHQFH WKH *, DEVRUSWLRQ ,QWHUHVWLQJO\ HWKDQRO ZDV UHSRUWHG WR KDYH D FRQFHQWUDWLRQ
GHSHQGDQWHQKDQFHPHQWRQLWVHQKDQFHPHQWRIWKHGLIIXVLRQ.XULKDUDEHUJVWURP.QXWVRQHW
DO$QGWKLVZDVDOVRREVHUYHGLQWKLVZRUNWKHHQKDQFHPHQWRIWKHGLIIXVLRQLQFUHDVHG
ZLWKDJURZLQJFRQFHQWUDWLRQRIHWKDQRO
,WZDVREVHUYHGLQWKLVVWXG\WKDWHWKDQROLVPRVWSRWHQWLQHQKDQFLQJWKHGLIIXVLRQRIFDIIHLQH
DQG WKHRSK\OOLQH DQG LW KDV RQO\ D PRGHVW HIIHFWRQWKH GLIIXVLRQ RI QDGRORO DF\FORYLU DQG
DPSKRWHULFLQ%$OWKRXJKHWKDQROLQFUHDVHVWKHVROXELOLW\RISDUDFHWDPROWKHUHDUHQRUHSRUWV
RI LW LPSURYLQJ WKH LQYLYR ELRDYDLODELOLW\ ZKLFK LV FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK WKH FXUUHQW UHVXOWV 7KH
SK\VLRFKHPLFDO LQWHUDFWLRQV EHWZHHQ WKH OLSLG ELOD\HU DQG GLIIHUHQW PROHFXOHV DUH FRPSOH[
DQGIXUWKHULQYHVWLJDWLRQZLOOEHQHHGHGWRXQGHUVWDQGWKHVSHFLILFLW\RIWKHDFWLRQRIHWKDQRO
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU'LVFXVVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
,WLVLPSRUWDQWWRHQVXUHWKDWWKHOLSRVRPH LVQRWGLVUXSWHGDWKLJKFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIHWKDQRO
ZKLFK ZRXOG OHDG WR DQ DUWLIDFWXDO YDOXHV RI WKHSHUPHDELOLW\ 7KH FXUUHQW ZRUN HVWDEOLVKHG
WKDW WKH VL]H GLVWULEXWLRQV RI WKH OLSRVRPHV ZHUH QRW DIIHFWHG E\ HWKDQRO $ VLPLODU ILQGLQJ
ZDVUHSRUWHGE\.RPDWVXHWDO.RPDWVXDQG2NDGDZKRREVHUYHGWKDWWKHUHZDVQR
VLJQLILFDQWDJJUHJDWLRQRUIXVLRQLQHJJ3&OLSRVRPHFRPSDUHGZLWKGLSDOPLWR\O3&'33&
OLSRVRPHV LQ WKH SUHVHQFH RI HWKDQRO 7KHUHIRUH WKHUH LV VWURQJ HYLGHQFH WKDW WKH OLSRVRPH
PHPEUDQHUHPDLQVLQWDFWLQWKHSUHVHQFHRIHWKDQRODQGWKHSK\VLRFKHPLFDOHQKDQFHPHQWRI
WKH PROHFXODU GLIIXVLRQ WKURXJK WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH LV D UHVXOW RI WKH PROHFXODU
LQWHUDFWLRQVEHWZHHQWKHOLSLGDQGHWKDQRODVGLVFXVVHGDERYH
7KHLPSDFWRI'062RQWKHGLIIXVLRQWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
7KHVXUIDFHPHFKDQLFDOSURSHUWLHVRIWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHXQGHUGLIIHUHQWFRQGLWLRQVZHUH
H[DPLQHGXVLQJFROORLGSUREH$)0UDWKHUWKDQWKHFRQYHQWLRQDOVLQJOHYHVLFOHPHWKRG/LDQJ
'062 KDV EHHQ UHSRUWHG WR UHGXFH WKH DUHD FRPSUHVVLELOLW\ PRGXOXV DQG EHQGLQJ
ULJLGLW\ RI OLSLG PHPEUDQHV LH D UHGXFWLRQ LQ ULJLGLW\ 1RWPDQ *XUWRYHQNR DQG
$QZDU DQG WKH FXUUHQW $)0 UHVXOWV FRQILUPHG WKLV REVHUYDWLRQ VLQFH LW FDXVHG D
VLJQLILFDQW UHGXFWLRQ RI WKH <RXQJ¶V PRGXOXV DQG KDUGQHVV RI WKH OLSRVRPH 'HVSLWH EHLQJ
DEOH WR LQGXFH SRUH IRUPDWLRQ LQ WKH OLSLG ELOD\HU DQG WKXV WR SURPRWH WKH SHUPHDELOLW\
*RUGHOL\ .LVHOHY HW DO WKH '062 PROHFXOH LQWHUDFWV PRUH LQWHQVLYHO\ ZLWK ZDWHU
PROHFXOHVWKDQZLWKWKHSRODU KHDGJURXSV RI OLSRVRPHVWKXV LQGXFLQJVRPHGHK\GUDWLRQRI
WKHVHJURXSV.LVHOHY/HVLHXUHWDO6XPDQGGH3DEORZKLFKFRXOGUHVXOWLQD
WLJKWHU SDFNLQJ RI WKH OLSRVRPH ELOD\HU 7KLV FRXOG EH SRVVLEO\ WKH UHDVRQ IRU WKH OLPLWHG
HQKDQFHPHQWRI'062RQWKHGLIIXVLRQRIWKHPRGHOGLIIXVDQWV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU'LVFXVVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
7KHV\QHUJHWLFHIIHFWRQWKHGLIIXVLRQRISDUDFHWDPRODQGFDIIHLQH
3RWHQWLDO V\QHUJHWLF HIIHFWV RQ WKH GLIIXVLRQ RI WZR GLIIXVDQWV FDUULHG RXW LQ DUWLILFLDO
PHPEUDQH DVVD\V KDYH QRW EHHQ VWXGLHG SUHYLRXVO\ 3DUDFHWDPRO DQG FDIIHLQH ZDV H[SORUHG
LQ WKH FXUUHQW ZRUN DV DQ H[DPSOH RI DQ DSSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH LPSURYHG OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH
PHWKRGWRWKHVWXG\RIWKHGLIIXVLRQRIFRPELQDWLRQIRUPXODWLRQV
,WZDVUHSRUWHGWKDWWKHLQKLELWRU\HIIHFWRISDUDFHWDPRORQF\FORR[\JHQDVH&2;ZRXOGEH
PRUHHIIHFWLYHZKHQFRPELQHGZLWKFDIIHLQHDVDSDLQNLOOHU)LHELFK/LHEHWDODQGLW
ZDVSURSRVHGWKDWWKH$,VDFWRQGLIIHUHQWEXWGLVWLQFWPROHFXODUWDUJHWVLQWKRVHPXOWLWDUJHW
FRPELQDWLRQV 6WUDXEH $LFKHU HW DO +RZHYHU WKH UHVXOWV IURP WKH GLIIXVLRQ RI
SDUDFHWDPRO ZLWK LQFUHDVLQJ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI FDIIHLQH VKRZHG D GHFUHDVLQJ SHUPHDELOLW\
ZKLOH WKH SHUPHDELOLW\ RI FDIIHLQH ZDV QRW LQIOXHQFHG E\ SDUDFHWDPRO LQGLFDWLQJ WKDW WKH
QHJDWLYHV\QHUJ\RIFDIIHLQHFRXOGUHWDUGWKHDEVRUSWLRQRISDUDFHWDPROLQWKHKXPDQ*,WUDFW
7KLV LQIOXHQFH RI FDIIHLQH RQ WKH DEVRUSWLRQ RI SDUDFHWDPRO VKRXOG EH FRQVLGHUHG LQ WKH
FRPELQDWLRQIRUPXODWLRQVLIWKHUHVXOWVDUHFOLQLFDOO\FRQILUPHG
7+(',))86,212)7+(7367+528*+7+(/,32620(0(0%5$1(
7KHUHKDVQRSXEOLVKHGZRUNRQWKHSHUPHDELOLW\RI73VWKURXJKFHOOPHPEUDQHVRUDUWLILFLDO
PHPEUDQHV +HUH WKH GLIIXVLRQ RI WKH 73V ZDV LQYHVWLJDWHG E\ XVLQJ WKH HVWDEOLVKHG
LPSURYHGOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHPHWKRG7KHDEVRUSWLRQRIWKH73VE\WKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQH
ZDVILUVWO\PHDVXUHGGXHWRWKHLUVWURQJELQGLQJWRWKHOLSLGELOD\HU+DVKLPRWR.XPD]DZD
HWDO6LUN%URZQHWDO7KHFXUUHQWUHVXOWVVKRZHGWKDW(*&*DQG(&*KDYH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU'LVFXVVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
WKHKLJKHVWDPRXQWRIDEVRUSWLRQZKLFKDJUHHGZLWKWKHUHSRUWHGUHVXOWVWKDWWKRVHWZR73V
KDYH WKH VWURQJHVW DIILQLW\ LQFRUSRUDWLRQWRWKH OLSLG ELOD\HU +DVKLPRWR .XPD]DZD HW DO
.DML\D +RMR HW DO 7KH H[WHQW RI DEVRUSWLRQ RI WKH IRXU 73V E\ WKH OLSRVRPH
PHPEUDQHLVLQWKHRUGHURIWKHLUSDUWLWLRQFRHIILFLHQWVLQDZDWHURFWDQHV\VWHP 7KHUHVXOWV
RI WKH DEVRUSWLRQ RI WKRVH 73V FRUUHODWH FORVHO\ ZLWK WKHLU KHDOWK SURSHUWLHV WKDW (&* DQG
(*&* KDYH WKH KLJKHVW UDGLFDO VFDYHQJLQJ DFWLYLW\ +HQQLQJ )DMDUGR/LUD HW DO FRPSDUHG ZLWK (& DQG (*& VXFK DV DQWLR[LGDQW DQG DQWLWXPRU DFWLYLWLHV +LJGRQ DQG )UHL
.X]XKDUD6XJDQXPDHWDO,WKDVEHHQSURSRVHGWKDWWKHLQWHUDFWLRQVRIWKH73V
ZLWK OLSLG ELOD\HUV LV JRYHUQHG E\ WKH SUHVHQFH RI D JDOOR\O PRLHW\ DV VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH VLQFH WKHVH IXQFWLRQDO JURXSV KDYH D VWURQJHU DIILQLW\ IRU OLSLG ELOD\HUV .DML\D +RMR HW DO
vo
vo
vo
ov
v
ov
vo
v
vo
vo
vo
vo
vo
(&(*&
vo
vo
ov
v
vo
v j
vo
ov
vo vo
%
v
vo
vo vo
v j
v
vo
vo
'
vo
v
vo
(&*(*&*
)LJXUH7KHFKHPLFDOVWUXFWXUHVRIWKH73VZLWKULQJODEHOVRI(*&*%DQG'ULQJ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU'LVFXVVLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
7KH FXUUHQW DEVRUSWLRQ NLQHWLFV GDWD UHYHDO WKDW (*&* KDV WKH KLJKHVW DEVRUSWLRQ FRQVWDQW
DQG WKXV WKH IDVWHVW LQWHUDFWLRQ ZLWK WKH OLSLG ELOD\HUV 7KLV LV FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK WKH UHVXOW
REWDLQHGIURPPROHFXODUG\QDPLFVE\6LUN7HWDO6LUN%URZQHWDOWKDW(*&*KDV
WKHKLJKHVWQXPEHURIK\GURJHQERQGVIRUPHGZLWKOLSLGKHDGJURXSVDQGD ODUJHQXPEHURI
WKRVHERQGVZHUHORFDWHGDWWKH%DQG'ULQJV7KLVLVLQDFFRUGDQFHZLWKWKHFXUUHQW5DPDQ
VSHFWURVFRS\ UHVXOWV IURP ZKLFK LW ZDV FRQFOXGHG WKHUH DUH VWURQJ LQWHUDFWLRQV EHWZHHQ WKH
WZR PROHFXOHV DULVLQJ IURP WKH K\GURJHQ ERQGV IRUPHG EHWZHHQ (*&* DQG WKH OLSLG
PROHFXOHV
)XUWKHUPROHFXODUG\QDPLFVVWXGLHV6LUN%URZQHWDOVKRZHGWKDWVLQFHWKH73VDUH
ERXQGHGWRWKHELOD\HUVXUIDFHZLWKDVWURQJLQWHUDFWLRQWKHLUGLIIXVLRQDORQJWKHELOD\HUZDV
FKDUDFWHULVHGE\WKHIRUPDWLRQDQGEUHDNLQJRIWKHK\GURJHQERQGV7KHFXUUHQWUHVXOWVKDYH
GHPRQVWUDWHGWKDWVLQFH(*&*DQG(&*KDYHWKHVWURQJHVWDIILQLW\WRWKHOLSLGELOD\HUWKHLU
GLIIXVLRQ WKURXJK WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH ZDV UHWDUGHG FRPSDUHG ZLWK (& DQG (*&
0RUHRYHU QHLWKHU WKH DGGLWLRQ RI D GLIIXVLRQ HQKDQFHU RU D FKDQJH RI S+ RI WKH GLIIXVLRQ
VROXWLRQ DV DQ DWWHPSW WR GHFUHDVH WKH QXPEHU RI LRQLVHG (*&* JURXSV DQG VR VXSSUHVV
K\GURJHQ ERQGLQJ FRXOG LPSURYH WKH GLIIXVLRQ RI (*&* 7KLV VXJJHVWV WKDW WKH VWURQJ
ERQGLQJEHWZHHQWKHOLSLGPROHFXOHDQG(*&*LVUDWKHUGLIILFXOWWREUHDNZKLFKWKXVUHVXOWV
LQDORZELRDYDLODELOLW\RIWKLV73
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU2YHUDOO&RQFOXVLRQVDQG)XWXUHZRUN
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&+$37(5 29(5$// &21&/86,216 $1' )8785(
:25.
29(5$//&21&/86,216
$Q DUWLILFLDO PHPEUDQH V\VWHP KDV EHHQ GHYHORSHG WR DYRLG WKH KLJKFRVW DQG XQGHVLUDEOH
DQLPDO WHVWV LQYROYHG LQ DQ DFFXUDWH SUHGLFWLRQ RI KXPDQ DEVRUSWLRQ D OLSLG ELOD\HU RI
OLSRVRPHV UHVHPEOHV WKH ZDOOV RI ELRORJLFDO FHOOV VR WKDW D OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH LV PRUH
UHSUHVHQWDWLYH RI WKH EDUULHU WR DEVRUSWLRQ LQ WKH *, WUDFW WKDQ WKH FRQYHQWLRQDO 3$03$
PRGHO LQ WHUPV RI PRUSKRORJ\ 0RUHRYHU WKLV DSSURDFK DYRLGV UHVLGXDO VROYHQW LQ WKH WHVW
PHPEUDQH ZKLFK LV D SUREOHP ZLWK VRPH LQ YLWUR PHWKRGV VLQFH LW PD\ LQWHUIHUH ZLWK WKH
GLIIXVLRQ&RQVHTXHQWO\WKHDUWLILFLDOOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHPRGHOGHYHORSHGE\)ODWHQDQGKLV
FRZRUNHUV)ODWHQ%XQMHVHWDO)ODWHQ'KDQLNXODHWDO)ODWHQ6NDUHWDO
)ODWHQ /XWKPDQ HW DO LV DQ LGHDO EDVLV IRU VFUHHQLQJ WKH ELRORJLFDO DYDLODELOLW\ RI
SKDUPDFHXWLFDO GUXJV RU QXWULWLRQDOO\ EHQHILFLDO PROHFXOHV 7KH SURFHGXUH WKDW WKH\
GHYHORSHG IRU PHDVXULQJ SHUPHDELOLW\ KDV D QXPEHU RI OLPLWDWLRQV WKDW DUH SULPDULO\
DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH DEVRUSWLRQRI WKH GLIIXVDQW LQ WKH PHPEUDQH 7KLV LQWURGXFHV HUURUVWKDW
ZHUH RYHUFRPH LQ WKH SUHVHQW ZRUN E\ SUHWUHDWLQJ WKH PHPEUDQH ZLWK WKH GLIIXVDQW DQG
ILWWLQJ WKH GDWD WR DQ DSSURSULDWH PRGHO $ SDUWLFXODU DGYDQWDJH RI WKH PRGLILHG PHWKRG LV
WKDW LW DOORZV DQ DFFXUDWH PHDVXUHPHQW IRU GLIIXVDQWV ZLWK VPDOO YDOXHV RI WKH SHUPHDELOLW\
DQG WKXV OHDGV WR DQ LPSURYHG FRUUHODWLRQ ZLWK LQ YLYR KXPDQ DEVRUSWLRQ FRPSDUHG ZLWK
H[LVWLQJPHWKRGV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU2YHUDOO&RQFOXVLRQVDQG)XWXUHZRUN
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
7KH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH LPSURYHG OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH FDQ EH H[WHQGHG WR H[SORUH WKH
SK\VLFRFKHPLFDO HQKDQFHPHQWRI PROHFXODU GLIIXVLRQ 7KH FXUUHQW UHVXOW VKRZHG WKDW HWKDQROKDVWKHPRVWVLJQLILFDQWHQKDQFHPHQWRQWKHGLIIXVLRQRIFDIIHLQHDQGWKHRSK\OOLQHE\
QHDUO\ DQG DOVR QHDUO\ IRU WKH RWKHU GLIIXVDQWV ,W ZDV DOVR IRXQG WKDW WKH
HQKDQFHPHQWRIHWKDQROLVFRQFHQWUDWLRQGHSHQGDQWDQGWKHVL]HDQDO\VLVRIWKHOLSRVRPHVLQ
HWKDQRO VXJJHVWV WKDW WKH SK\VLFRFKHPLFDO LQWHUDFWLRQ GLG QRW FDXVH DQ\ PRUSKRORJLFDO
FKDQJHVWRWKHOLSRVRPH7KHUHIRUHIXUWKHUZRUNLVUHTXLUHGWRDVFHUWDLQWKHH[DFWPHFKDQLVP
RIWKHHQKDQFHPHQW2QWKHFRQWUDU\GHVSLWHRILWVVLJQLILFDQWLPSDFWRQWKHHODVWLFSURSHUWLHV
RIWKHOLSRVRPH'062GLGQRWUHVXOWLQDQ\VLJQLILFDQWSK\VLFRFKHPLFDOHQKDQFHPHQWRIWKH
GLIIXVLRQDOWKRXJKLWKDVEHHQUHSRUWHGWRLQGXFHSRUHIRUPDWLRQLQWKHOLSLGELOD\HUV
7KHDSSOLFDWLRQRIWKHLPSURYHGOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHZDVIXUWKHUH[DPLQHGE\LQYHVWLJDWLQJD
SRWHQWLDO V\QHUJHWLF HIIHFW RQ WKH GLIIXVLRQ RI YDULRXV FRPSRXQGV LQ D FRPELQDWLRQ
IRUPXODWLRQ ZKHUH FDIIHLQH DQG SDUDFHWDPRO ZDV XVHG DV DQ H[DPSOH LQ WKLV ZRUN
3DUDFHWDPRO LV RIWHQ FRPELQHG ZLWK FDIIHLQH IRU DQ HQKDQFHG PHGLFDO EHQHILW KRZHYHU WKH
UHVXOWVVKRZHGWKDWFDIIHLQH KDVD QHJDWLYHV\QHUJ\RQWKHDEVRUSWLRQRISDUDFHWDPROWRWKH
H[WHQWWKDWLWVSHUPHDELOLW\ZDVRQO\KDOIRIWKDWZLWKRXWFDIIHLQH
7KHGLIIXVLRQRI73VWKURXJKWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHZDVPHDVXUHGDQGDWWHPSWVZHUHPDGH
WRHQKDQFHWKHSHUPHDELOLW\RI(*&*GXHWRLWVKHDOWKEHQHILWV$ODUJHTXDQWLW\DQGDUDSLG
DEVRUSWLRQ RI (*&* E\ WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH ZDV REVHUYHG DQG LW FDQQRW GLIIXVH IUHHO\
WKXV LQGLFDWLQJD ORZELRDYDLODELOLW\ LQWKHKXPDQ*,WUDFW7KHDEVRUSWLRQRIWKHRWKHU73V
ZDV LQ WKH RUGHU RI WKHLU SDUWLWLRQ FRHIILFLHQW LQ D ZDWHURFWDQH V\VWHP LH
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU2YHUDOO&RQFOXVLRQVDQG)XWXUHZRUN
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
(&*!(*&*!(&!(*& ZKLFK ZDV FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK SXEOLVKHG ZRUN RQ D VLPLODU V\VWHP
+DVKLPRWR.XPD]DZDHWDO.DML\D+RMRHWDO7KLVUHVXOWFRUUHODWHVFORVHO\
WR WKHLU KHDOWK SURSHUWLHV +LJGRQ DQG )UHL .X]XKDUD 6XJDQXPD HW DO 7KH
VWURQJ K\GURJHQ ERQGLQJ LQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ (*&* DQG WKH OLSLG ELOD\HU ZDV REVHUYHG E\
WKH FXUUHQW 5DPDQ VSHFWURVFRS\ GDWD ZKLFK LV FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK PROHFXODU G\QDPLFV
VLPXODWLRQV6LUN%URZQHWDO,WPD\EHFRQFOXGHGWKDWWKLVERQGLQJLVUDWKHUGLIILFXOW
WR GLVUXSW VLQFH DWWHPSWV DW XVLQJ GLIIXVLRQ HQKDQFHUV DQG FKDQJLQJ WKH S+ LQ WKH GRQRU
FKDPEHUGLGQRWDIIHFWWKHSHUPHDELOLW\YDOXHV
)LQDOO\ DQ HIIHFWLYH SURWHFWLRQ RI (*&* IURP WKH HQYLURQPHQW ZDV DFKLHYHG E\ WKH
SUHSDUDWLRQ RI EHHVZD[ PLFURVSKHUHV DV D FDUULHU 7KH PLFURVSKHUHV ZHUH UHJXODU LQ VKDSH
ZLWKRXW YLVLEOH FUDFNV DQG D PHDQ VL]H RI OHVV WKDQ P 7KH SUHSDUDWLRQ LQYROYHG DQ
HPXOVLILHGFRROLQJ LQGXFHG VROLGLILFDWLRQWKHDJLWDWLRQWLPHGXULQJWKHHPXOVLILFDWLRQDQGD
KLJKHUORDGLQJUDWHGLGQRWLQIOXHQFHWKHHQFDSVXODWLRQHIILFLHQF\$QRSWLPXPRI
HQFDSVXODWLRQHIILFLHQF\ZDVREWDLQHGGXHWRWKHKLJKK\GURSKRELFSURSHUW\RIWKHEHHVZD[
DQGWKHKLJKVROXELOLW\RIWKH(*&*LQWKHZDWHUSKDVH7KHLQYLWURUHOHDVHSURILOHRI(*&*
IURPWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVDWR&ZDVOHVVWKDQZLWKLQKRXUVDQGWKHOHDNDJHRI
(*&* LQ WKH ZDWHU VROXWLRQ DW URRP WHPSHUDWXUH ZDV QR PRUH WKDQ ZLWKLQ GD\V
LQGLFDWLQJWKDWEHHVZD[FRXOGEHXVHGDVDFDUULHUPDWUL[IRUORQJWHUPXVHV7KHILWWLQJRIWKH
UHOHDVHDQGOHDNDJHGDWDLQGLFDWHGDGLIIXVLRQFRQWUROOHGPHFKDQLVP
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU2YHUDOO&RQFOXVLRQVDQG)XWXUHZRUN
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
)8785(:25.
,Q IXWXUH ZRUN WKH SUHSDUDWLRQ RI WKH PHPEUDQH ZLWK GLIIHUHQW VL]HV RI OLSRVRPH FRXOG EH
H[SORUHGWRLQYHVWLJDWHWKHPRUSKRORJLFDOLPSDFWRIWKHOLSRVRPHRQWKHPROHFXODUGLIIXVLRQ
0RUH PRGHO GLIIXVDQWV ZLWK D YDULHW\ RI SK\VLFRFKHPLFDO SURSHUWLHV FRXOG EH H[DPLQHG WR
HVWDEOLVKDSUHGLFWLYHFRUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQWKHSHUPHDELOLW\DQGKXPDQ DEVRUSWLRQDQG IRUD
FRUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQWKHSHUPHDELOLW\ZLWKPROHFXODUSURSHUWLHV =KX-LDQJHWDO7KH
SDUWLWLRQLQJFRHIILFLHQWRIWKHPROHFXOHVLQWKHOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHFRXOGEHVWXGLHGWRREWDLQ
WKHLU GLIIXVLRQ FRHIILFLHQW DQG RWKHU LPSRUWDQW SDUDPHWHUV IRU 0$7/$% SURJUDPPLQJ 7KH
DSSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH OLSRVRPH PHPEUDQH FRXOG EH H[WHQGHG WR PHDVXUH WKH SHUPHDELOLW\ RI
YDULRXVIRUPXODWLRQVWRWHVWSRWHQWLDOGLIIXVLRQHQKDQFHUVDQGUHWDUGDQWVIRUDWDUJHWHGUHOHDVH
7KH DEVRUSWLRQ NLQHWLF RI WKH 73V ZDV EDVHG RQ WKH SDUWLWLRQ FRHIILFLHQW LQ D ZDWHURFWDQH
V\VWHP+DVKLPRWR.XPD]DZDHWDODQGWKHUHVXOWRIWKHDEVRUSWLRQFRQVWDQWNFRXOG
EHLPSURYHGLIWKHSDUWLWLRQFRHIILFLHQWRIWKH73VEHWZHHQZDWHUDQGOLSRVRPHZDVREWDLQHG
IRUH[DPSOHE\WKHXVHRI+3/&ZLWKDQLPPRELOLVHGOLSRVRPHPHPEUDQHFROXPQ8HNXVD
7DNHVKLWDHWDO
'LIIHUHQWHQFDSVXODWLRQSURFHVVHVDQGPDWHULDOVFRXOGEHH[SORUHGIRUDSSOLFDWLRQWR(*&*
VXFKDVVSUD\GU\LQJDQGOLSRVRPHHQWUDSPHQW)DQJDQG%KDQGDUL7KHOHDNDJHRIWKH
HQFDSVXODWHG(*&*IURPWKHEHHVZD[PLFURVSKHUHVFRXOGEHH[WHQGHGWRPRQWKVRU\HDUVWR
H[DPLQHWKHIXUWKHUUHOHDVHDQGWRGHWHUPLQHZKHWKHU(*&*LVGHJUDGHGHYHQZKHQLWLVVWLOO
WUDSSHG LQ WKH ZD[ $V PHQWLRQHG SUHYLRXVO\ PRUH UHOHDVH RU OHDNDJH GDWD LV UHTXLUHG IRU
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KDSWHU2YHUDOO&RQFOXVLRQVDQG)XWXUHZRUN
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
ILWWLQJ WKH PDWKHPDWLF PRGHOV DV D EDVLV IRU DQ LPSURYHG XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI WKH UHOHDVH
EHKDYLRXU
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
$SSHQGL[$
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
$33(1',;$
7+(,03$&72)7+('(62537,21217+(3(50($%,/,7<
$QH[DPSOHRIWKH0$7/$%SURJUDPPLQJ
function xdot=membrane(t,x);
xdot = zeros(1,1);
cd0=1.51; % intial conc in donor mg/ml
va=0.6; % acceptor volume, ml
A=3.1416/4*0.008^2; % membrane area, m^2.
vd=0.1; % donor volume, ml
mm0=29.52*10^(-3); % initial caffeine in membarne, mg
Kvm=0.02952/1.46572; % product of equilibrium constant and membrane volume,
ml
Km=11.49*10^(-6); % permeability in cm/s
%x(2)=(cd0*vd+mm0-x(1)/2*Kvm-x(1)*va)/(vd+Kvm/2) % concentration in donor
chamber at time t, mg/ml
%xdot(2)=(-xdot(1)/2*Kvm-xdot(1)*va)/(vd+Kvm/2)
%Mt=Kvm/2*(cd+x(1))*10^(-2.7552)/(7.62*10^-3)*(t/60)^0.2126; % mg
if t<600
P2=2.653*10^-3/600/(7.62*10^-3)*Kvm/2*((cd0*vd+mm0-x(1)/2*Kvmx(1)*va)/(vd+Kvm/2)+x(1))% initial two points, mg/s
end
if t>=600
P2=Kvm/2*((cd0*vd+mm0-x(1)/2*Kvm-x(1)*va)/(vd+Kvm/2)+x(1))*10^(1.0153)*0.2126*(t)^(-0.7874)
end
xdot(1)=P2/va/2+Km*A/va*((cd0*vd+mm0-x(1)/2*Kvm-x(1)*va)/(vd+Kvm/2)x(1))*10^4;
t0=0;tf=18000;
x0=[0]'
[t x]=ode23('membranefinal',t0,tf,x0);
plot(t,x)
legend('x(1)')
title('C in the acceptor')
xlabel('t')
ylabel('Ca')
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
5HIHUHQFHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
5()(5(1&(6
$GVRQ $ 7 - 5DXE HW DO 4XDQWLWDWLYH DSSURDFKHV WR GHOLQHDWH SDUDFHOOXODU
GLIIXVLRQLQFXOWXUHGHSLWKHOLDOFHOOPRQROD\HUV-RXUQDORI3KDUPDFHXWLFDO6FLHQFHV
$O$ZTDWL 4 2QH KXQGUHG \HDUV RI PHPEUDQH SHUPHDELOLW\ GRHV 2YHUWRQ VWLOO
UXOH"1DWXUH&HOO%LRORJ\((
$PLQDEKDYL70DQG6)+DUODSXU6RUSWLRQGHVRUSWLRQDQGGLIIXVLRQNLQHWLFVRI
NHWRQHV DQG QLWULOHV LQWR IOXRURSRO\PHU PHPEUDQHV -RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG 3RO\PHU 6FLHQFH
$UWXUVVRQ 3 DQG - .DUOVVRQ &RUUHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ RUDOGUXJ DEVRUSWLRQ LQ KXPDQV
DQG DSSDUHQW GUXJ SHUPHDELOLW\ FRHIILFLHQWV LQ KXPDQ LQWHVWLQDO HSLWKHOLDO &DFR FHOOV
%LRFKHPLFDODQG%LRSK\VLFDO5HVHDUFK&RPPXQLFDWLRQV
$UWXUVVRQ 3 . 3DOP HW DO &DFR PRQROD\HUV LQ H[SHULPHQWDO DQG WKHRUHWLFDO
SUHGLFWLRQVRIGUXJWUDQVSRUW$GYDQFHG'UXJ'HOLYHU\5HYLHZV
$YGHHI $ 6 %HQGHOV HW DO 3$03$ &ULWLFDO IDFWRUV IRU EHWWHU SUHGLFWLRQV RI
DEVRUSWLRQ-RXUQDORI3KDUPDFHXWLFDO6FLHQFHV
$YGHHI $ DQG 2 7VLQPDQ 3$03$ $ GUXJ DEVRUSWLRQ LQ YLWUR PRGHO &KHPLFDOVHOHFWLYLW\GXHWRPHPEUDQHK\GURJHQERQGLQJ,QFRPERFRPSDULVRQVRI+'0
'23& DQG '63$03$ PRGHOV (XURSHDQ -RXUQDO RI 3KDUPDFHXWLFDO 6FLHQFHV %DNHU5:/RQVGDOH+.&RQWUROOHGUHOHDVHPHFKDQLVPVDQGUDWHV1HZ<RUN
3OHQXP3UHVV
%DOHQWLQH ' $ 6 $ :LVHPDQ HW DO 7KH FKHPLVWU\ RI WHD IODYRQRLGV &ULWLFDO
5HYLHZVLQ)RRG6FLHQFHDQG1XWULWLRQ
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
5HIHUHQFHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
%DOLPDQH 3 9 6 + &KRQJ HW DO &XUUHQW PHWKRGRORJLHV XVHG IRU HYDOXDWLRQ RI
LQWHVWLQDO SHUPHDELOLW\ DQG DEVRUSWLRQ -RXUQDO RI 3KDUPDFRORJLFDO DQG 7R[LFRORJLFDO
0HWKRGV
%DQJKDP $ ' 0 : +LOO HW DO 3UHSDUDWLRQ DQG XVH RI OLSRVRPHV DV PRGHOV RI
ELRORJLFDOPHPEUDQHV3OHQXP3UHVV
%DUU\-$DQG.*DZULVFK'LUHFW105HYLGHQFHIRUHWKDQROELQGLQJWRWKHOLSLG
ZDWHULQWHUIDFHRISKRVSKROLSLGELOD\HUV%LRFKHPLVWU\
%RQWLQJ6/DQG--++03RQW 0HPEUDQHWUDQVSRUW(OVHYLHU1RUWK+ROODQG
%LRPHGLFDO3UHVV
%RUGL)&&DPHWWLHWDO,RQSHUPHDWLRQDFURVVPRGHOOLSLGPHPEUDQHV$NLQHWLF
DSSURDFK-RXUQDORI3K\VLFDO&KHPLVWU\%
%XQJH$/DQG5/&OHHN$QHZPHWKRGIRUHVWLPDWLQJGHUPDODEVRUSWLRQIURP
FKHPLFDOH[SRVXUH (IIHFW RI PROHFXODUZHLJW DQG RFWDQRO ZDWHU SDUWLWLRQLQJ 3KDUPDFHXWLFDO5HVHDUFK
&DFHFL
7
$XJXVW
9HWHULQDU\
+LVWRORJ\
IURP
KWWSZZZYHWPHGYWHGXHGXFDWLRQ&XUULFXOXP9090+3KWP
&DL<1'$QDY\HWDO&RQWULEXWLRQRISUHV\VWHPLFKHSDWLFH[WUDFWLRQWRWKHORZ
RUDOELRDYDLODELOLW\RIJUHHQWHDFDWHFKLQVLQUDWV 'UXJ0HWDEROLVPDQG'LVSRVLWLRQ
&DR ; + 6 7 *LEEV HW DO :K\ LV LW FKDOOHQJLQJ WR SUHGLFW LQWHVWLQDO GUXJ
DEVRUSWLRQ DQG RUDO ELRDYDLODELOLW\ LQ KXPDQ XVLQJ UDW PRGHO 3KDUPDFHXWLFDO 5HVHDUFK
&KDQGD-DQG6%DQG\RSDGK\D\3HUWXUEDWLRQRISKRVSKROLSLGELOD\HUSURSHUWLHVE\
HWKDQRODWDKLJKFRQFHQWUDWLRQ/DQJPXLU
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
5HIHUHQFHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&KHER\LQD 6 DQG & 0 :\DQGW :D[EDVHG VXVWDLQHG UHOHDVH PDWUL[ SHOOHWV
SUHSDUHG E\ D QRYHO IUHH]H SHOOHWL]DWLRQ WHFKQLTXH ,, ,Q YLWUR GUXJ UHOHDVH VWXGLHV DQG
UHOHDVHPHFKDQLVPV,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI3KDUPDFHXWLFV
&KHQ ; ; $ 0XUDZVNL HW DO $ QRYHO GHVLJQ RI DUWLILFLDO PHPEUDQH IRU
LPSURYLQJWKH3$03$PRGHO3KDUPDFHXWLFDO5HVHDUFK
&KHQ = < 4 < =KX HW DO 'HJUDGDWLRQ RI JUHHQ WHD FDWHFKLQV LQ WHD GULQNV
-RXUQDORI$JULFXOWXUDODQG)RRG&KHPLVWU\
&KLRX:/DQG$%DUYH/LQHDUFRUUHODWLRQRIWKHIUDFWLRQRIRUDOGRVHDEVRUEHG
RIGUXJVEHWZHHQKXPDQVDQGUDWV3KDUPDFHXWLFDO5HVHDUFK
&KLRX:/DQG3:%XHKOHU&RPSDULVRQRIRUDODEVRUSWLRQDQGELRDYDLODELOLW\
RIGUXJVEHWZHHQPRQNH\DQGKXPDQ3KDUPDFHXWLFDO5HVHDUFK
&KRL<:DQG-$5RJHUV7KHOLSRVRPHDVDPRGHOPHPEUDQHLQFRUUHODWLRQVRI
SDUWLWLRQLQJZLWKDOSKDDGUHQRFHSWRUDJRQLVWDFWLYLWLHV 3KDUPDFHXWLFDO5HVHDUFK
&ODUN'(5DSLGFDOFXODWLRQRISRODUPROHFXODUVXUIDFHDUHDDQGLWVDSSOLFDWLRQWR
WKH SUHGLFWLRQ RI WUDQVSRUW SKHQRPHQD 3UHGLFWLRQ RI LQWHVWLQDO DEVRUSWLRQ -RXUQDO RI
3KDUPDFHXWLFDO6FLHQFHV
&RQUDGL5$$5+LOJHUVHWDO7KHLQIOXHQFHRISHSWLGHVWUXFWXUHRQWUDQVSRUW
DFURVV&DFRFHOOV3KDUPDFHXWLFDO5HVHDUFK
&RUWL*)0DHVWUHOOLHWDO'HYHORSPHQWDQGHYDOXDWLRQRIDQLQYLWURPHWKRGIRU
SUHGLFWLRQ RI KXPDQ GUXJ DEVRUSWLRQ , $VVHVVPHQW RI DUWLILFLDO PHPEUDQH FRPSRVLWLRQ
(XURSHDQ-RXUQDORI3KDUPDFHXWLFDO6FLHQFHV
&RUWL*)0DHVWUHOOLHWDO'HYHORSPHQWDQGHYDOXDWLRQRIDQLQYLWURPHWKRGIRU
SUHGLFWLRQRIKXPDQGUXJDEVRUSWLRQ,,'HPRQVWUDWLRQRIWKHPHWKRGVXLWDELOLW\(XURSHDQ
-RXUQDORI3KDUPDFHXWLFDO6FLHQFHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
5HIHUHQFHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
&UDQN-7KHPDWKHPDWLFVRIGLIIXVLRQ&ODUHQGRQ3UHVV
&\SURWH[ &DFR SHUPHDELOLW\ DVVD\ IURP KWWSZZZF\SURWH[FRPDGPHSNLQ
YLWURSHUPHDELOLW\FDFRSHUPHDELOLW\
&\SURWH[ 3DUDOOHO DUWLILFLDO PHPEUDQH SHUPHDELOLW\ DVVD\ 3$03$ IURP
KWWSZZZF\SURWH[FRPDGPHSNLQYLWURSHUPHDELOLW\SDPSD
'HVDL.*+DQG+-3DUN5HFHQWGHYHORSPHQWVLQPLFURHQFDSVXODWLRQRIIRRG
LQJUHGLHQWV'U\LQJ7HFKQRORJ\
'KDWILHOG
&HOO
PHPEUDQH
GHWDLOHG
GLDJUDP
IURP
KWWSHQZLNLSHGLDRUJZLNL)LOH&HOOBPHPEUDQHBGHWDLOHGBGLDJUDPBVYJ
'L0DVL - $ 7KH YDOXH RI LPSURYLQJ WKH SURGXFWLYLW\ RI WKH GUXJ GHYHORSPHQW
SURFHVV)DVWHUWLPHVDQGEHWWHUGHFLVLRQV3KDUPDFRHFRQRPLFV
'RQKRZH , * DQG 2 )HQQHPD :DWHUYDSRU DQG R[\JHQ SHUPHDELOLW\ RI ZD[
ILOPV-RXUQDORIWKH$PHULFDQ2LO&KHPLVWV6RFLHW\
'UHVVPDQ-%*/$PLGRQHWDO$EVRUSWLRQSRWHQWLDOHVWLPDWLQJWKH IUDFWLRQ
DEVRUEHGIRURUDOO\DGPLQLVWHUHGGUXJV-RXUQDORI3KDUPDFHXWLFDO6FLHQFHV
'XIUHVQH & - DQG ( 5 )DUQZRUWK $ UHYLHZ RI ODWHVW UHVHDUFK ILQGLQJV RQ WKH
KHDOWKSURPRWLRQSURSHUWLHVRIWHD-RXUQDORI1XWULWLRQDO%LRFKHPLVWU\
']LH]DN-'0LFURHQFDSVXODWLRQDQGHQFDSVXODWHGLQJUHGLHQWV)RRG7HFKQRORJ\
(OWD\DU1567VDLHWDO3DUWLWLRQLQJRIVROXWHVLQGLIIHUHQWVROYHQWV\VWHPV7KH
FRQWULEXWLRQRIK\GURJHQERQGLQJFDSDFLW\DQGSRODULW\-RXUQDORI3KDUPDFHXWLFDO6FLHQFHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
5HIHUHQFHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
(VFKHU%,536FKZDU]HQEDFKHWDO(YDOXDWLRQRIOLSRVRPHZDWHUSDUWLWLRQLQJ
RIRUJDQLFDFLGVDQGEDVHV'HYHORSPHQWRIDVRUSWLRQPRGHO (QYLURQPHQWDO6FLHQFH
7HFKQRORJ\
)DJHUKROP83UHGLFWLRQRIKXPDQSKDUPDFRNLQHWLFVJDVWURLQWHVWLQDODEVRUSWLRQ
-RXUQDORI3KDUPDF\DQG3KDUPDFRORJ\
)DJHUKROP80-RKDQVVRQHWDO&RPSDULVRQ EHWZHHQSHUPHDELOLW\ FRHIILFLHQWV
LQUDWDQGKXPDQMHMXQXP3KDUPDFHXWLFDO5HVHDUFK
)DJHUKROP 8 $ /LQGDKO HW DO 5HJLRQDO LQWHVWLQDO SHUPHDELOLW\ LQ UDWV RI
FRPSRXQGVZLWKGLIIHUHQWSK\VLFRFKHPLFDOSURSHUWLHVDQGWUDQVSRUWPHFKDQLVPV-RXUQDORI
3KDUPDF\DQG3KDUPDFRORJ\
)DQJ - < : 5 /HH HW DO (IIHFWRI OLSRVRPH HQFDSVXODWLRQ RI WHD FDWHFKLQV RQ
WKHLUDFFXPXODWLRQLQEDVDOFHOOFDUFLQRPDV -RXUQDORI'HUPDWRORJLFDO6FLHQFH
)DQJ=DQG%%KDQGDUL(QFDSVXODWLRQRISRO\SKHQROVDUHYLHZ7UHQGVLQ)RRG
6FLHQFH7HFKQRORJ\
)HOGVWHLQ/7KHUHIUDFWLYHLQGH[RIEHHVZD[-RXUQDORI,QGXVWULDODQG(QJLQHHULQJ
&KHPLVWU\8V
)LHELFK % / . /LHE HW DO (IIHFWV RI FDIIHLQH DQG SDUDFHWDPRO DORQH RU LQ
FRPELQDWLRQZLWKDFHW\OVDOLF\OLFDFLGRQSURVWDJODQGLQ(V\QWKHVLVLQUDWPLFURJOLDOFHOOV
1HXURSKDUPDFRORJ\
)LHOG/'66WHUQKHOOHWDO2UJDQLF6WUXFWXUHVIURP6SHFWUD-RKQ:LOH\6RQV
)LQNHOVWHLQ$:DWHUDQGQRQHOHFWURO\WHSHUPHDELOLW\RI OLSLGELOD\HU PHPEUDQHV
-RXUQDORI*HQHUDO3K\VLRORJ\
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
5HIHUHQFHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
)LVFKHU+0.DQV\HWDO3HUPHDWLRQRISHUPDQHQWO\SRVLWLYHFKDUJHGPROHFXOHV
WKURXJK DUWLILFLDO PHPEUDQHV ,QIOXHQFH RI SK\VLFRFKHPLFDO SURSHUWLHV (XURSHDQ -RXUQDO
RI3KDUPDFHXWLFDO6FLHQFHV
)ODWHQ * ( + %XQMHV HW DO 'UXJ SHUPHDELOLW\ DFURVV D SKRVSKROLSLG YHVLFOH
EDVHGEDUULHU&KDUDFWHUL]DWLRQRIEDUULHUVWUXFWXUHVWRUDJHVWDELOLW\DQGVWDELOLW\WRZDUGV
S+FKDQJHV(XURSHDQ-RXUQDORI3KDUPDFHXWLFDO6FLHQFHV
)ODWHQ * ( $ % 'KDQLNXOD HW DO 'UXJ SHUPHDELOLW\ DFURVV D SKRVSKROLSLG
YHVLFOHEDVHGEDUULHU$QRYHODSSURDFKIRUVWXG\LQJSDVVLYHGLIIXVLRQ(XURSHDQ-RXUQDORI
3KDUPDFHXWLFDO6FLHQFHV
)ODWHQ * ( . /XWKPDQ HW DO 'UXJ SHUPHDELOLW\ DFURVV D SKRVSKROLSLG YHVLFOH
EDVHGEDUULHU7KHHIIHFWRIWHQVLGHVFRVROYHQWVDQGS+FKDQJHVRQEDUULHULQWHJULW\DQG
RQGUXJSHUPHDELOLW\(XURSHDQ-RXUQDORI3KDUPDFHXWLFDO6FLHQFHV
)ODWHQ*(06NDUHWDO'UXJSHUPHDELOLW\DFURVVDSKRVSKROLSLGYHVLFOHEDVHG
EDUULHU&KDUDFWHUL]DWLRQRIGUXJPHPEUDQH LQWHUDFWLRQVDQGWKHHIIHFWRIDJLWDWLRQRQWKH
EDUULHU LQWHJULW\ DQG RQ WKH SHUPHDELOLW\ (XURSHDQ -RXUQDO RI 3KDUPDFHXWLFDO 6FLHQFHV
)ULHGPDQ 0 & ( /HYLQ HW DO 6WDELOLW\ RI *UHHQ 7HD &DWHFKLQV LQ &RPPHUFLDO
7HD/HDYHVGXULQJ6WRUDJHIRU0RQWKV-RXUQDORI)RRG6FLHQFH++
* *LHELVFK ' & 7 + + 8VVLQJ (G 0HPEUDQH WUDQVSRW LQ ELRORJ\ 6SULQJHU
9HUODJ%HUOLQ+HLGHOEHUJ1HZ<RUN
*DUUHWW 0 ' 0 , :DOWRQ HW DO 7KH FRQWHPSRUDU\ GUXJ GHYHORSPHQW SURFHVV
DGYDQFHV DQG FKDOOHQJHV LQ SUHFOLQLFDO DQG FOLQLFDO GHYHORSPHQW 3URJUHVV LQ FHOO F\FOH
UHVHDUFK
*RUGHOL\ 9 , 0 $ .LVHOHY HW DO /LSLG PHPEUDQH VWUXFWXUH DQG LQWHUDFWLRQV LQ
GLPHWK\OVXOIR[LGHZDWHUPL[WXUHV%LRSK\VLFDO-RXUQDO
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
5HIHUHQFHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
*RZGD'995DYLHWDO3UHSDUDWLRQHYDOXDWLRQDQGELRDYDLODELOLW\VWXGLHVRI
LQGRPHWKDFLQEHHV ZD[ PLFURVSKHUHV -RXUQDO RI 0DWHULDOV 6FLHQFH0DWHULDOV LQ 0HGLFLQH
*UDVVHW(03LQWRHWDO(SLWKHOLDOSURSHUWLHVRI KXPDQFRORQLFFDUFLQRPDFHOO
OLQH&DFRHOHFWULFDOSDUDPHWHUV$PHULFDQ-RXUQDORI3K\VLRORJ\&&
*XUWRYHQNR $ $ DQG - $QZDU 0RGXODWLQJ WKH VWUXFWXUH DQG SURSHUWLHV RI FHOO
PHPEUDQHV7KHPROHFXODUPHFKDQLVPRIDFWLRQRIGLPHWK\OVXOIR[LGH -RXUQDORI3K\VLFDO
&KHPLVWU\%
*XUWRYHQNR$$DQG-$QZDU,QWHUDFWLRQRI(WKDQROZLWK%LRORJLFDO0HPEUDQHV
7KH )RUPDWLRQ RI 1RQELOD\HU 6WUXFWXUHV ZLWKLQ WKH 0HPEUDQH ,QWHULRU DQG WKHLU
6LJQLILFDQFH-RXUQDORI3K\VLFDO&KHPLVWU\%
+DP]D $ DQG & * =KDQ +RZ FDQ HSLJDOORFDWHFKLQ JDOODWH IURP JUHHQ WHD
SUHYHQW +,9 LQIHFWLRQ" 0HFKDQLVWLF LQVLJKWV IURP FRPSXWDWLRQDO PRGHOLQJ DQG WKH
LPSOLFDWLRQIRUUDWLRQDOGHVLJQRIDQWL+,9HQWU\LQKLELWRUV-RXUQDORI3K\VLFDO&KHPLVWU\
%
+DVKLPRWR 7 6 .XPD]DZD HW DO ,QWHUDFWLRQ RI WHD FDWHFKLQV ZLWK OLSLG ELOD\HUV
LQYHVWLJDWHG ZLWK OLSRVRPH V\VWHPV %LRVFLHQFH %LRWHFKQRORJ\ DQG %LRFKHPLVWU\ +DXVHU + 0 6WXEEV HW DO ,RQ SHUPHDELOLW\ RI SKRVSKROLSLG ELOD\HUV 1DWXUH
+HDQH\ 5 3 )DFWRUV LQIOXHQFLQJ WKH PHDVXUHPHQW RI ELRDYDLODELOLW\ WDNLQJ
FDOFLXPDVDPRGHO-RXUQDORI1XWULWLRQ66
+HQQLQJ60&)DMDUGR/LUDHWDO&DWHFKLQFRQWHQWRIWHDVDQGDJUHHQWHD
H[WUDFW VXSSOHPHQW FRUUHODWHV ZLWK WKH DQWLR[LGDQW FDSDFLW\ 1XWULWLRQ DQG &DQFHUDQ
,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDO
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
5HIHUHQFHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
+HQQLQJ 6 0 < 7 1LX HW DO %LRDYDLODELOLW\ DQG DQWLR[LGDQW DFWLYLW\ RI WHD
IODYDQROV DIWHU FRQVXPSWLRQ RI JUHHQ WHD EODFN WHD RU D JUHHQ WHD H[WUDFW VXSSOHPHQW
$PHULFDQ-RXUQDORI&OLQLFDO1XWULWLRQ
+LJGRQ-9DQG%)UHL7HDFDWHFKLQVDQGSRO\SKHQROV+HDOWKHIIHFWVPHWDEROLVP
DQGDQWLR[LGDQWIXQFWLRQV&ULWLFDO5HYLHZVLQ)RRG6FLHQFHDQG1XWULWLRQ
+LJXFKL70HFKDQLVPRIVXVWDLQHGDFWLRQPHGLFDWLRQWKHRUHWLFDODQDO\VLVRIUDWH
RI UHOHDVH RI VROLG GUXJV GLVSHUVHG LQ VROLG PDWULFHV -RXUQDO RI 3KDUPDFHXWLFDO 6FLHQFHV
+LOJHUV $ 5 5 $ &RQUDGL HW DO &DFR FHOO PRQROD\HUV DV D PRGHO IRU GUXJ
WUDQVSRUWDFURVVWKHLQWHVWLQDOPXFRVD3KDUPDFHXWLFDO5HVHDUFK
+RUWHU ' DQG - % 'UHVVPDQ ,QIOXHQFH RI SK\VLFRFKHPLFDO SURSHUWLHV RQ
GLVVROXWLRQRIGUXJVLQWKHJDVWURLQWHVWLQDOWUDFW$GYDQFHG'UXJ'HOLYHU\5HYLHZV
+X%&/3DQHWDO2SWLPL]DWLRQRIIDEULFDWLRQSDUDPHWHUVWRSURGXFHFKLWRVDQ
WULSRO\SKRVSKDWH QDQRSDUWLFOHV IRU GHOLYHU\ RI WHD FDWHFKLQV -RXUQDO RI $JULFXOWXUDO DQG
)RRG&KHPLVWU\
,QDGD+11DNDJDZDHWDO(IIHFWRIWKHELQDU\HWKDQROZDWHUVROYHQWRQWKHLQ
YLWURVNLQSHUPHDWLRQRIQLIHGLSLQH<DNX]DLJDNX
,QRXH0%0,QRXHHWDO3RWHQWLRPHWULFDQG+105VWXGLHVRIFRPSOH[DWLRQ
RI$OZLWKHSLJDOORFDWHFKLQJDOODWHDPDMRUDFWLYHFRQVWLWXHQWRIJUHHQWHD-RXUQDORI
,QRUJDQLF%LRFKHPLVWU\
,UYLQH-'/7DNDKDVKLHWDO0'&.0DGLQ'DUE\FDQLQHNLGQH\FHOOV$WRRO
IRUPHPEUDQHSHUPHDELOLW\VFUHHQLQJ-RXUQDORI3KDUPDFHXWLFDO6FLHQFHV
- $ 5XHOO $ $ & 'X . 7VLQPDQ $ VLPSOH 3$03$ ILOWHU IRU SDVVLYHO\
DEVRUEHGFRPSRXQGVIURPKWWSZZZSLRQLQFFRPLPDJHVVLPSOH3$03$ILOWHUSGI
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
5HIHUHQFHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
.DML\D.++RMRHWDO5HODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQDQWLEDFWHULDODFWLYLW\RIFDWHFKLQ
GHULYDWLYHVDQGWKHLU LQWHUDFWLRQZLWKDPRGHO PHPEUDQH -RXUQDORI $JULFXOWXUDODQG)RRG
&KHPLVWU\
.DPS ) DQG - $ +DPLOWRQ +RZ IDWW\ DFLGV RI GLIIHUHQW FKDLQ OHQJWK HQWHU DQG
OHDYH FHOOV E\ IUHH GLIIXVLRQ 3URVWDJODQGLQV /HXNRWULHQHV DQG (VVHQWLDO )DWW\ $FLGV .DQV\ 0 ) 6HQQHU HW DO 3K\VLFRFKHPLFDO KLJK WKURXJKSXW VFUHHQLQJ 3DUDOOHO
DUWLILFLDO PHPEUDQH SHUPHDWLRQ DVVD\ LQ WKH GHVFULSWLRQ RI SDVVLYH DEVRUSWLRQ SURFHVVHV
-RXUQDORI0HGLFLQDO&KHPLVWU\
.DUDUOL 7 7 &RPSDULVRQ RI WKH JDVWURLQWHVWLQDO DQDWRP\ SK\VLRORJ\ DQG
ELRFKHPLVWU\RIKXPDQVDQGFRPPRQO\XVHGODERUDWRU\DQLPDOV%LRSKDUPDFHXWLFV'UXJ
'LVSRVLWLRQ
.DWL\DU 6 & $ (OPHWV HW DO *UHHQ WHD DQG VNLQ FDQFHU SKRWRLPPXQRORJ\
DQJLRJHQHVLVDQG'1$UHSDLU-RXUQDORI1XWULWLRQDO%LRFKHPLVWU\
.HOGHU - 3 ' - *URRWHQKXLV HW DO 3RODU PROHFXODU VXUIDFH DV D GRPLQDWLQJ
GHWHUPLQDQW IRU RUDO DEVRUSWLRQ DQG EUDLQ SHQHWUDWLRQ RI GUXJV 3KDUPDFHXWLFDO 5HVHDUFK
.LVHOHY0$3/HVLHXUHWDO'062LQGXFHGGHK\GUDWLRQRI'33&PHPEUDQHV
VWXGLHG E\ ;UD\ GLIIUDFWLRQ VPDOODQJOH QHXWURQ VFDWWHULQJ DQG FDORULPHWU\ -RXUQDO RI
$OOR\VDQG&RPSRXQGV
.QLJKW & * (G /LSRVRPHV )URP SK\VLFDO VWUXFWXUH WR WKHUDSHXWLF DSSOLFDWLRQV
5HVHDUFKPRQRJUDSKVLQFHOODQGWLVVXHSK\VLRORJ\&DPEULGJH(OVHYLHU
.RED\DVKL<7.RPDWVXHWDO,QYLWURSHUPHDWLRQRIVHYHUDOGUXJVWKURXJKWKH
KXPDQ QDLO SODWH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ SK\VLFRFKHPLFDO SURSHUWLHV DQG QDLO SHUPHDELOLW\ RI
GUXJV(XURSHDQ-RXUQDORI3KDUPDFHXWLFDO6FLHQFHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
5HIHUHQFHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
.RHQLJ % : DQG . *DZULVFK /LSLGHWKDQRO LQWHUDFWLRQ VWXGLHG E\ 105 RQ
ELFHOOHV-RXUQDORI3K\VLFDO&KHPLVWU\%
.RPDWVX + DQG 6 2NDGD (WKDQROLQGXFHG DJJUHJDWLRQ DQG IXVLRQ RI VPDOO
SKRVSKDWLG\OFKROLQH OLSRVRPHSDUWLFLSDWLRQ RI LQWHUGLJLWDWHG PHPEUDQH IRUPDWLRQ LQ WKHLU
SURFHVVHV%LRFKLPLFD(W%LRSK\VLFD$FWD%LRPHPEUDQHV
.UDOMHYLF 6 3 - 6WDPEURRN HW DO $FFHOHUDWLQJ GUXJ GLVFRYHU\ $OWKRXJK WKH
HYROXWLRQ RI RPLFV
PHWKRGRORJLHV LV VWLOO LQ LWV LQIDQF\ ERWK WKH SKDUPDFHXWLFDO LQGXVWU\
DQG SDWLHQWV FRXOG EHQHILW IURP WKHLU LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ LQ WKH GUXJ GHYHORSPHQW SURFHVV
(PER5HSRUWV
.XULKDUDEHUJVWURP7..QXWVRQHWDO3HUFXWDQHRXVDEVRUSWLRQHQKDQFHPHQWRI
DQLRQLF PROHFXOH E\ HWKDQRO ZDWHUV\VWHPV LQ KXPDQ VNLQ 3KDUPDFHXWLFDO 5HVHDUFK .X]XKDUD 7 0 6XJDQXPD HW DO *UHHQ WHD FDWHFKLQ DV D FKHPLFDO FKDSHURQH LQ
FDQFHUSUHYHQWLRQ&DQFHU/HWWHUV
/DPEHUW - ' - * +RQJ HW DO 3LSHULQH HQKDQFHV WKH ELRDYDLODELOLW\ RI WKH WHD
SRO\SKHQROHSLJDOORFDWHFKLQJDOODWHLQPLFH-RXUQDORI1XWULWLRQ
/DPEHUW - ' 6 0 6DQJ HW DO 3HUDFHW\ODWLRQ DV D PHDQV RI HQKDQFLQJ LQ YLWUR
ELRDFWLYLW\ DQG ELRDYDLODELOLW\ RI HSLJDOORFDWHFKLQJDOODWH 'UXJ 0HWDEROLVP DQG
'LVSRVLWLRQ
/HDK\ ' ( 3 - 7D\ORU HW DO 0RGHO VROYHQW V\VWHPV IRU 46$5 3URS\OHQH
JO\FRO GLSHODUJRQDWH 3*'3D QHZ VWDQGDUG VROYHQW IRU XVH LQ SDUWLWLRQFRHIILFLHQW
GHWHUPLQDWLRQ4XDQWLWDWLYH6WUXFWXUH$FWLYLW\5HODWLRQVKLSV
/HH3+61$\\DUQSDOD\DUQHWDO,QVLOLFRSUHGLFWLRQRILRQL]DWLRQFRQVWDQWVRI
GUXJV0ROHFXODU3KDUPDFHXWLFV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
5HIHUHQFHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
/HQQHUQDV + +XPDQ MHMXQDO HIIHFWLYH SHUPHDELOLW\ DQG LWV FRUUHODWLRQ ZLWK
SUHFOLQLFDOGUXJDEVRUSWLRQPRGHOV-RXUQDORI3KDUPDF\DQG3KDUPDFRORJ\
/HQQHUQDV + +XPDQ LQWHVWLQDO SHUPHDELOLW\ -RXUQDO RI 3KDUPDFHXWLFDO 6FLHQFHV
/LDQJ;0*=0DRHWDO0HFKDQLFDOSURSHUWLHVDQGVWDELOLW\PHDVXUHPHQWRI
FKROHVWHUROFRQWDLQLQJ OLSRVRPH RQ PLFD E\ DWRPLF IRUFH PLFURVFRS\ -RXUQDO RI &ROORLG
DQG,QWHUIDFH6FLHQFH
/LSLQVNL&$)/RPEDUGRHWDO([SHULPHQWDODQGFRPSXWDWLRQDODSSURDFKHVWR
HVWLPDWHVROXELOLW\DQGSHUPHDELOLW\LQGUXJGLVFRYHU\DQGGHYHORSPHQWVHWWLQJV $GYDQFHG
'UXJ'HOLYHU\5HYLHZV
/LX08QGHUVWDQGLQJWKH0HFKDQLFDOVWUHQJWKRI0LFURFDSVXOHVDQG7KHLU$GKHVLRQ
RQ)DEULF6XUIDFHV6FKRRORI&KHPLFDO(QJLHHULQJ%LUPLQJKDP8QLYHUVLW\RI%LUPLQJKDP
'RFWRURI3KLORVRSK\
/RPEDUGR ) 0 < 6KDODHYD HW DO (ORJ'RFW $ WRRO IRU OLSRSKLOLFLW\
GHWHUPLQDWLRQ LQ GUXJ GLVFRYHU\ %DVLF DQG QHXWUDO FRPSRXQGV -RXUQDO RI 0HGLFLQDO
&KHPLVWU\
/XQGDKO3DQG)%HLJL,PPRELOL]HGOLSRVRPHFKURPDWRJUDSK\RIGUXJVIRUPRGHO
DQDO\VLV RI GUXJPHPEUDQH LQWHUDFWLRQV $GYDQFHG 'UXJ 'HOLYHU\ 5HYLHZV 0D 4 + 4 ;LD HW DO 3UHSDUDWLRQ RI WHD SRO\SKHQROVORDGHG VROLG OLSLG
QDQRSDUWLFOHV EDVHG RQ WKH SKDVH EHKDYLRUV RI KRW PLFURHPXOVLRQV 1DQRVFLHQFH DQG
7HFKQRORJ\3WVDQG&%DL6;LHDQG; =KX6WDID=XULFK7UDQV7HFK3XEOLFDWLRQV
/WG
0DGDUD-/5HJXODWLRQRIWKHPRYHPHQWRIVROXWHVDFURVVWLJKWMXQFWLRQV$QQXDO
5HYLHZRI3K\VLRORJ\
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
5HIHUHQFHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
0DGHQH $ 0 -DFTXRW HW DO )ODYRXU HQFDSVXODWLRQ DQG FRQWUROOHG UHOHDVH D
UHYLHZ,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI)RRG6FLHQFHDQG7HFKQRORJ\
0DOYHUQ
'\QDPLF
/LJKW
6FDWWHULQJ
'/6
IURP
KWWSZZZPDOYHUQFRPODEHQJWHFKQRORJ\G\QDPLFBOLJKWBVFDWWHULQJG\QDPLFBOLJKWBVFDWWHUL
QJKWP
0DQGDJHUH $ . 7 1 7KRPSVRQ HW DO *UDSKLFDO PRGHO IRU HVWLPDWLQJ RUDO
ELRDYDLODELOLW\ RI GUXJV LQ KXPDQV DQG RWKHU VSHFLHV IURP WKHLU FDFR SHUPHDELOLW\ DQG LQ
YLWUROLYHUHQ]\PHPHWDEROLFVWDELOLW\UDWHV-RXUQDORI0HGLFLQDO&KHPLVWU\
0DWVVRQ3&$6%HUJVWURPHWDO([SORULQJWKHUROHRIGLIIHUHQWGUXJWUDQVSRUW
URXWHVLQSHUPHDELOLW\VFUHHQLQJ-RXUQDORI0HGLFLQDO&KHPLVWU\
0HKWD $ 8OWUDYLROHW9LVLEOH 899LV 6SHFWURVFRS\ ± 3ULQFLSOH IURP
KWWSSKDUPD[FKDQJHLQIRSUHVVXOWUDYLROHWYLVLEOHXYYLVVSHFWURVFRS\SULQFLSOH
0HOOHPD 0 6FRSH DQG OLPLWDWLRQV RI XVLQJ ZD[ WR HQFDSVXODWH ZDWHUVROXEOH
FRPSRXQGV )RRG &ROORLGV 6HOI$VVHPEO\ DQG 0DWHULDO 6FLHQFH ( 'LFNLQVRQ DQG 0 (
/HVHU&DPEULGJH5R\DO6RF&KHPLVWU\
0HOOHPD 0 : $ - 9DQ %HQWKXP HW DO :D[ HQFDSVXODWLRQ RI ZDWHUVROXEOH
FRPSRXQGVIRUDSSOLFDWLRQLQIRRGV-RXUQDORI0LFURHQFDSVXODWLRQ
0RVHU . . .ULZHW HW DO 3DVVLYH VNLQ SHQHWUDWLRQ HQKDQFHPHQW DQG LWV
TXDQWLILFDWLRQ LQ YLWUR (XURSHDQ -RXUQDO RI 3KDUPDFHXWLFV DQG %LRSKDUPDFHXWLFV 1DNDJDZD.62NXGDHWDO'RVHGHSHQGHQW LQFRUSRUDWLRQRIWHDFDWHFKLQV
HSLJDOORFDWHFKLQJDOODWH DQG HSLJDOORFDWHFKLQ LQWR KXPDQ SODVPD %LRVFLHQFH
%LRWHFKQRORJ\DQG%LRFKHPLVWU\
1DQFH&/DQG:76KHDUHU,VJUHHQWHDJRRGIRU+,9LQIHFWLRQ"-RXUQDORI
$OOHUJ\DQG&OLQLFDO,PPXQRORJ\
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
5HIHUHQFHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
3DJOLDUD$05HLVWHWDO(YDOXDWLRQDQGSUHGLFWLRQRIGUXJSHUPHDWLRQ -RXUQDO
RI3KDUPDF\DQG3KDUPDFRORJ\
3DOP.36WHQEHUJHWDO3RODUPROHFXODUVXUIDFHSURSHUWLHVSUHGLFWWKHLQWHVWLQDO
DEVRUSWLRQRIGUXJVLQKXPDQV3KDUPDFHXWLFDO5HVHDUFK
3DUURWW1DQG7/DYH3UHGLFWLRQRILQWHVWLQDODEVRUSWLRQFRPSDUDWLYHDVVHVVPHQW
RI *$67523/86 70 DQG ,'($ 70 (XURSHDQ -RXUQDO RI 3KDUPDFHXWLFDO 6FLHQFHV
3DWUD0(6DORQHQHWDO8QGHUWKHLQIOXHQFHRIDOFRKRO7KHHIIHFWRIHWKDQRODQG
PHWKDQRORQOLSLGELOD\HUV%LRSK\VLFDO-RXUQDO
3DXOD 6 $ * 9RONRY HW DO 3HUPHDWLRQ RI SURWRQV SRWDVVLXP LRQV DQG VPDOO
SRODU PROHFXOHV WKURXJK SKRVSKROLSLG ELOD\HUV DV D IXQFWLRQ RI PHPEUDQH WKLFNQHVV
%LRSK\VLFDO-RXUQDO
3DXOHWWL * 0 DQG + :XQGHUOLDOOHQVSDFK 3DUWLWLRQFRHIILFLHQWV LQYLWUR$UWLILFLDO
PHPEUDQHV DV D VWDQGDUGL]HG GLVWULEXWLRQ PRGHO (XURSHDQ -RXUQDO RI 3KDUPDFHXWLFDO
6FLHQFHV
3HUVKLQJ / . % 6 6LOYHU HW DO )HDVLELOLW\ RI PHDVXULQJ WKH ELRDYDLODELOLW\ RI
WRSLFDO EHWDPHWKDVRQH GLSURSLRQDWH LQ FRPPHUFLDO IRUPXODWLRQV XVLQJ GUXJ FRQWHQW LQ VNLQ
DQGDVNLQEODQFKLQJELRDVVD\3KDUPDFHXWLFDO5HVHDUFK
3HWW\+50ROHFXODUELRORJ\RIPHPEUDQHVVWUXFWXUHDQGIXQFWLRQ3OHQXP
3LHWWD 3 * 3 6LPRQHWWL HW DO &DWHFKLQ PHWDEROLWHV DIWHU LQWDNH RI JUHHQ WHD
LQIXVLRQV%LRIDFWRUV
3LQWR065RELQHOHRQHWDO(QWHURF\WHOLNHGLIIHUHQWLDWLRQDQGSRODUL]DWLRQRIWKH
KXPDQFRORQFDUFLQRPDFHOOOLQH&DFRLQFXOWXUH%LRORJ\RIWKH&HOO
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
5HIHUHQFHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
3ODWWV - $ 7KHRUHWLFDO SUHGLFWLRQ RI K\GURJHQ ERQG GRQRU FDSDFLW\ 3K\VLFDO
&KHPLVWU\&KHPLFDO3K\VLFV
3RWWV52DQG5+*X\3UHGLFWLQJVNLQSHUPHDELOLW\ 3KDUPDFHXWLFDO5HVHDUFK
3RWWV 5 2 DQG 5 + *X\ 7KH LQIOXHQFH RI PROHFXODU YROXPH DQG K\GURJHQ
ERQGLQJ RQ SHSWLGHWUDQVSRUW DFURVV HSLWKHOLDO PHPEUDQHV 3KDUPDFHXWLFDO 5HVHDUFK 4XRUXP &U\R6(0 3UHSDUDWLRQ 7HFKQLTXHV DQG $GYDQWDJHV IURP
KWWSZZZTXRUXPWHFKFRPDSSOLFDWLRQVWHFKQLTXHVDQGDGYDQWDJHVFU\RVHPWHFKQLTXHV
DQGDGYDQWDJHVKWPO
5DJKXYDQVKL56.37ULSDWKLHWDO5HOHDVHNLQHWLFVRIVDOEXWDPROVXOIDWHIURP
ZD[FRDWHGPLFURFDSVXOHVDQGWDEOHWWHGPLFURFDSVXOHV-RXUQDORI0LFURHQFDSVXODWLRQ
5DQMKD 1 0 + .KDQ HW DO (QFDSVXODWLRQ DQG FKDUDFWHUL]DWLRQ RI FRQWUROOHG
UHOHDVH IOXUELSURIHQ ORDGHG PLFURVSKHUHVXVLQJ EHHVZD[DVDQHQFDSVXODWLQJDJHQW -RXUQDO
RI0DWHULDOV6FLHQFH0DWHULDOVLQ0HGLFLQH
5DVWRJL6&&HOO%LRORJ\1HZ$JH,QWHUQDWLRQDO
5HEHFFD 1RWPDQ 0 1 %UHQGDQ 2¶0DOOH\ -DPVKHG $QZDU 0ROHFXODU %DVLV IRU
'LPHWK\OVXOIR[LGH '062 $FWLRQ RQ /LSLG 0HPEUDQHV - $0 &+(0 62&
6DPEX\<,$QJHOLVHWDO7KH&DFRFHOOOLQHDVDPRGHORIWKHLQWHVWLQDOEDUULHU
LQIOXHQFH RI FHOO DQG FXOWXUHUHODWHG IDFWRUV RQ &DFR FHOO IXQFWLRQDO FKDUDFWHULVWLFV &HOO
%LRORJ\DQG7R[LFRORJ\
6HPHQRY 9 9 $UFKHRORJLFDO DQG IRUHQVLF VFLHQFH ELRORJLFDO REMHFW VHDUFK E\
XVLQJXOWUDYLROHWUDGLDWLRQRISUHVFULEHGHQHUJ\GHQVLW\DQGUHFRUGLQJSKRVSKRUHVFHQFHVLJQDO
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
5HIHUHQFHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
RQFRORXUUHYHUVLEOHILOP'HUZHQW,QQRYDWLRQV,QGH[6RYLHW8QLRQ6HPHQRY996(0(
,QGLYLGXDO
6KDK93<7VRQJHWDO,QYLWURGLVVROXWLRQSURILOHFRPSDULVRQ 6WDWLVWLFVDQG
DQDO\VLVRIWKHVLPLODULW\IDFWRUI3KDUPDFHXWLFDO5HVHDUFK
6LLVVDOR6//DLQHHWDO&DFRFHOOPRQROD\HUVDVDWRROWRVWXG\VLPXOWDQHRXV
SKDVH ,, PHWDEROLVP DQG PHWDEROLWH HIIOX[ RI LQGRPHWKDFLQ SDUDFHWDPRO DQG QDSKWKRO
,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI3KDUPDFHXWLFV
6LQJHU 6 - DQG * / 1LFROVRQ )OXLG PRVDLF PRGHO RI VWUXFWXUH RI FHOO
PHPEUDQHV6FLHQFH
6LUN7:()%URZQHWDO0ROHFXODU%LQGLQJRI&DWHFKLQVWR%LRPHPEUDQHV
5HODWLRQVKLS WR %LRORJLFDO $FWLYLW\ -RXUQDO RI $JULFXOWXUDO DQG )RRG &KHPLVWU\ 6LUN 7 : ( ) %URZQ HW DO 0ROHFXODU G\QDPLFV VWXG\ RQ WKH ELRSK\VLFDO
LQWHUDFWLRQV RI VHYHQ JUHHQ WHD FDWHFKLQV ZLWK OLSLG ELOD\HUV RI FHOO PHPEUDQHV -RXUQDO RI
$JULFXOWXUDODQG)RRG&KHPLVWU\
6WHJHPDQQ 6 ) /HYHLOOHU HW DO :KHQ SRRU VROXELOLW\ EHFRPHV DQ LVVXH )URP
HDUO\ VWDJH WR SURRI RI FRQFHSW (XURSHDQ -RXUQDO RI 3KDUPDFHXWLFDO 6FLHQFHV 6WHLQ:'7UDQVSRUWDQGGLIIXVLRQDFURVVFHOOPHPEUDQHV$FDGHPLFSUHVV,QF
6WHZDUW % + 2 + &KDQ HW DO 'LVFULPLQDWLRQ EHWZHHQ GUXJ FDQGLGDWHV XVLQJ
PRGHOV IRU HYDOXDWLRQ RI LQWHVWLQDO DEVRUSWLRQ $GYDQFHG 'UXJ 'HOLYHU\ 5HYLHZV 6WUDXEH $ % $LFKHU HW DO &RPELQHG DQDOJHVLFV LQ KHDGDFKH SDLQ WKHUDS\
VKRWJXQDSSURDFKRUSUHFLVHPXOWLWDUJHWWKHUDSHXWLFV"%PF1HXURORJ\
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
5HIHUHQFHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
6X < / / . /HXQJ HW DO 6WDELOLW\ RI WHD WKHDIODYLQV DQG FDWHFKLQV )RRG
&KHPLVWU\
6XJDQR . + +DPDGD HW DO +LJK WKURXJKSXW SUHGLFWLRQ RI RUDO DEVRUSWLRQ
,PSURYHPHQW RI WKH FRPSRVLWLRQ RI WKH OLSLG VROXWLRQ XVHG LQ SDUDOOHO DUWLILFLDO PHPEUDQH
SHUPHDWLRQDVVD\-RXUQDORI%LRPROHFXODU6FUHHQLQJ
6XJDQR . < 1DEXFKL HW DO 3UHGLFWLRQ RI KXPDQ LQWHVWLQDO SHUPHDELOLW\ XVLQJ
DUWLILFLDOPHPEUDQHSHUPHDELOLW\,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI3KDUPDFHXWLFV
6XP $ . DQG - - GH 3DEOR 0ROHFXODU VLPXODWLRQ VWXG\ RQ WKH LQIOXHQFH RI
GLPHWK\OVXOIR[LGH RQ WKH VWUXFWXUH RI SKRVSKROLSLG ELOD\HUV %LRSK\VLFDO -RXUQDO 7DYHOLQ 6 - 7DLSDOHQVXX HW DO 3UHGLFWLRQ RI WKH RUDO DEVRUSWLRQ RI ORZ
SHUPHDELOLW\ GUXJV XVLQJ VPDOO LQWHVWLQHOLNH $ FHOO PRQROD\HUV 3KDUPDFHXWLFDO
5HVHDUFK
7HVWHU & & 5( %URFN HW DO ,Q YLWUR V\QWKHVLV DQG VWDELOL]DWLRQ RI DPRUSKRXV
FDOFLXP FDUERQDWH $&& QDQRSDUWLFOHV ZLWKLQ OLSRVRPHV &U\VWHQJFRPP 8HNXVD < < 7DNHVKLWD HW DO 3DUWLWLRQ &RHIILFLHQWV RI 3RO\SKHQROV IRU
3KRVSKDWLG\OFKROLQH ,QYHVWLJDWHG E\ +3/& ZLWK DQ ,PPRELOL]HG $UWLILFLDO 0HPEUDQH
&ROXPQ%LRVFLHQFH%LRWHFKQRORJ\DQG%LRFKHPLVWU\
8.5&$QWLELRWLFSURJUHVVIRUGLVHDVHWKDWFDXVHVKDOI D PLOOLRQGHDWKVD \HDU
IURPKWWSZZZVWIFDFXN1HZVDQG(YHQWVDVS[
8QHU 0 8 *RQXOOX HW DO $ QHZ DSSURDFK IRU SUHSDULQJ D FRQWUROOHG UHOHDVH
NHWRSURIHQWDEOHWVE\XVLQJEHHVZD[)DUPDFR/DXVDQQH
9HEHU ' ) 6 5 -RKQVRQ HW DO 0ROHFXODU SURSHUWLHV WKDW LQIOXHQFH WKH RUDO
ELRDYDLODELOLW\RIGUXJFDQGLGDWHV-RXUQDORI0HGLFLQDO&KHPLVWU\
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
5HIHUHQFHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
YRQ +HLMQH * DQG ' 5HHV 0HPEUDQHV UHDGLQJ EHWZHHQ WKH OLQHV &XUUHQW
2SLQLRQLQ6WUXFWXUDO%LRORJ\
:DOWHU $ DQG - *XWNQHFKW 3HUPHDELOLW\ RI VPDOO QRQHOOHFWURO\WHV WKURXJK OLSLG
ELOD\HUPHPEUDQHV-RXUQDORI0HPEUDQH%LRORJ\
:DWNLQVRQ 5 0 & +HUNHQQH HW DO ,QIOXHQFH RI (WKDQRO RQ WKH 6ROXELOLW\
,RQL]DWLRQ DQG 3HUPHDWLRQ &KDUDFWHULVWLFV RI ,EXSURIHQ LQ 6LOLFRQH DQG +XPDQ 6NLQ 6NLQ
3KDUPDFRORJ\DQG3K\VLRORJ\
:LOOLDPV$&DQG%:%DUU\3HQHWUDWLRQHQKDQFHUV$GYDQFHG'UXJ'HOLYHU\
5HYLHZV
:LOOLDPVRQ 0 3 7 * 0F&RUPLFN HW DO (SLJDOORFDWHFKLQ JDOODWH WKH PDLQ
SRO\SKHQRO LQ JUHHQ WHD ELQGV WR WKH 7FHOO UHFHSWRU &' 3RWHQWLDO IRU +,9 WKHUDS\
-RXUQDORI$OOHUJ\DQG&OLQLFDO,PPXQRORJ\
:RKQVODQG ) DQG % )DOOHU +LJKWKURXJKSXW SHUPHDELOLW\ S+ SURILOH DQG KLJK
WKURXJKSXW DONDQHZDWHU ORJ 3 ZLWK DUWLILFLDO PHPEUDQHV -RXUQDO RI 0HGLFLQDO &KHPLVWU\
;LDQJ 7 ; DQG % ' $QGHUVRQ 7KH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ SHUPHDQW VL]H DQG
SHUPHDELOLW\LQOLSLGELOD\HUPHPEUDQHV-RXUQDORI0HPEUDQH%LRORJ\
;XHPHL /LDQJ * 0 .< 6LPRQ 1J 0HFKDQLFDO SURSHUWLHV DQG VWDELOLW\
PHDVXUHPHQW RI FKROHVWHUROFRQWDLQLQJ OLSRVRPH RQ PLFD E\ DWRPLF IRUFH PLFURVFRS\
&ROORLGDQG,QWHUIDFH6FLHQFH
<DPDJXFKL.0+RQGDHWDO,QKLELWRU\HIIHFWVRIHSLJDOORFDWHFKLQJDOODWHRQ
WKH OLIHF\FOHRI KXPDQ LPPXQRGHILFLHQF\ YLUXVW\SH+,9$QWLYLUDO 5HVHDUFK
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
5HIHUHQFHV
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
<DPDVKLWD 6 7 )XUXED\DVKL HW DO 2SWLPL]HG FRQGLWLRQV IRU SUHGLFWLRQ RI
LQWHVWLQDO GUXJ SHUPHDELOLW\ XVLQJ &DFR FHOOV (XURSHDQ -RXUQDO RI 3KDUPDFHXWLFDO
6FLHQFHV
<DQJ & 6 - < &KXQJ HW DO 7HD DQG WHD SRO\SKHQROV LQ FDQFHU SUHYHQWLRQ
-RXUQDORI1XWULWLRQ66
<DQJ & 6 DQG = < :DQJ 7HD DQG FDQFHU -RXUQDO RI WKH 1DWLRQDO &DQFHU
,QVWLWXWH
<D]GDQLDQ 0 6 / *O\QQ HW DO &RUUHODWLQJ SDUWLWLRQLQJ DQG &DFR FHOO
SHUPHDELOLW\ RI VWUXFWXUDOO\ GLYHUVH VPDOO PROHFXODU ZHLJKW FRPSRXQGV 3KDUPDFHXWLFDO
5HVHDUFK
<RXQJ5&5&0LWFKHOOHWDO'HYHORSPHQWRIDQHZSK\VLFRFKHPLFDO PRGHO
IRU EUDLQ SHQHWUDWLRQ DQG LWV DSSOLFDWLRQ WR WKH GHVLJQ RI FHQWUDOO\ DFWLQJ +UHFHSWRU
KLVWDPLQHDQWDJRQLVWV-RXUQDORI0HGLFLQDO&KHPLVWU\
<YRQ
+
-
5DPDQ
VSHFWURVFRS\
IRU
DQDO\VLV
DQG
PRQLWRULQJ
IURP
KWWSZZZKRULEDFRPILOHDGPLQXSORDGV6FLHQWLILF'RFXPHQWV5DPDQEDQGVSGI
=DNHUL0LODQL 3 + 9DOL]DGHK HW DO 3UHGLFWLQJ KXPDQ LQWHVWLQDO SHUPHDELOLW\
XVLQJ VLQJOHSDVV LQWHVWLQDO SHUIXVLRQ LQ UDW -RXUQDO RI 3KDUPDF\ DQG 3KDUPDFHXWLFDO
6FLHQFHV
=KX&</-LDQJHWDO$FRPSDUDWLYHVWXG\RIDUWLILFLDOPHPEUDQHSHUPHDELOLW\
DVVD\ IRU KLJK WKURXJKSXW SURILOLQJ RI GUXJ DEVRUSWLRQ SRWHQWLDO (XURSHDQ -RXUQDO RI
0HGLFLQDO&KHPLVWU\
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
© Copyright 2026 Paperzz