Emerging Issues:
New Challenges for Understanding
our Changing Planet
Berrien Moore III
University of New Hampshire
Global Megacycles and Trends: Setting the Agenda for 21st Century Science
Mauna Loa Monthly Carbon Dioxide Record:
Keeling Record 1958 - 2000
370
Carbon Dioxide (ppmv)
360
350
340
330
320
310
1957
1963
1969
1975
1981
1987
1993
Year
Source: C.D. Keeling and T.P. Whorf
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
1999
Historical Atmospheric Carbon Concentration
for the Last 1000 Years
Extracted from the Law Dome Ice Core
360
350
Carbon Concnetration (ppmv)
Ice core
340
Atmospheric Measurements
Polynomial fit
330
320
310
300
290
280
270
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
Year
Source: Etheridge, et.al., Petit, et.al.
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
1900
2000
Variation with Time
of the Vostok Isotope Temperature Record
4
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
Years Before Present
Source: Petit, et.al.
(PAGES / IGBP)
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
0
Temperature Variation (°C)
2
CO2 Concentration in the Vostok Ice Core
325
250
225
200
175
150
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
Years Before Present
Source: Barnola, et.al. (PAGES / IGBP)
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
0
CO2 Concentration (ppmv)
275
CO2 concentration (ppmv)
300
Vostok Ice Core CO2 Concentration and
Temperature Variation Record
4
300
2
275
0
250
-2
225
-4
200
-6
175
-8
150
-10
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
Years Before Present
Source: Barnola, et.al.; Petit et.al. (PAGES / IGBP)
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
0
Temperature Variation (°C)
CO2 Concentration (ppmv)
325
CO2 Concentration in Ice Cores and
CO2 Concentration in Ice Core Samples and
Atmospheric
CO2 Projection
Years 100 Years
100 Next
for Next for
Projections
700
Projected
Projected
(2100) (2100)
650
Record
VostokRecord
Vostok
Scenario
IS92aRecord
IPCCDome
Law
Law Dome
Mauna
Loa Record
IPCC
IS92a
Record
Loa Scenario
Mauna
550
500
450
400
Current
Current (2001)
(2001)
350
300
250
200
150
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
Years Before Present (BP 1950)
(B.P. -- 1950)
Source: C. D. Keeling and T. P. Whorf; Etheridge et.al.; Barnola et.al.; (PAGES / IGBP); IPCC
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
0
CO2 Concentration (ppmv)
CO2 Concentration (ppmv)
600
Principal Global Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions
7
Total
Gas
Fossil Fuel Emissions ( Gt. C/yr.)
6
Liquids
Solids
5
4
3
2
1
0
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
Year
Source: Marland, et.al.
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
2000
Metric Tons of Carbon Emitted per Person per Year
Per Capita Emission Estimates
7
United States
6
Germany (unified)
Global Average
Peoples Rep. China
India
5
4
3
2
1
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
Year
Source: Marland, et.al.
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
2000
Pressure Changing Composition
Emissions are likely
to increase and become
more globally distributed.
Source: WHIGCC, 2000
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Global C Budget (PgC/y)
1980s
1990s
Atm. Increase
3.3+/-0.1
3.2+/-0.1
Emissions
5.4+/-0.3
6.3+/-0.4
Ocean-Atm. Flux
-1.9+/-0.6
-1.7+/-0.5
Land-Atm. Flux*
-0.2+/-0.7
-1.4+/-0.7
1.7(0.6-2.5)
NA
-1.9(-3.8-0.3)
NA
*partitioned as
follows
Land Use
Residual
Terrestrial Sink
Source: IPCC, 2001
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Global Carbon Sources and Sinks
Source: GCTE / IGBP
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CO2 Annual Growth Rate
88
Gt. C per year
CO2 GROWTH RATE
Global
(NOAA)
66
Fossil Fuel
Cape Grim
(CSIRO)
44
22
Mauna Loa
(Scripps/NOAA)
Pinatubo
SOI
30
30
La Nina
00
-30
-30
El Nino
1955
1955
1960
1960
1965
1965
1970
1970
1975
1975
Year
1980
1980
Source: R. Francey (CSIRO)
1985
1985
1990
1990
1995
1995
2000
2000
(R J Francey, pers. Com)
Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
CO2 Concentration in Ice Cores and
CO2 Concentration in Ice Core Samples and
Atmospheric
CO2 Projection
Years 100 Years
100 Next
for Next for
Projections
700
Projected
Projected
(2100) (2100)
650
600
Record
VostokRecord
Vostok
Scenario
IS92aRecord
IPCCDome
Law
Law Dome
Mauna
Loa Record
IPCC
IS92a
Record
Loa Scenario
Mauna
500
450
400
Current
Current (2001)
(2001)
350
300
250
200
150
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
Years Before Present (BP 1950)
(B.P. -- 1950)
Source: C. D. Keeling and T. P. Whorf; Etheridge et.al.; Barnola et.al.; (PAGES / IGBP); IPCC
st Century Science: Global Megacycles and Trends
Setting
the Agenda
for 21for
Preparing
Students
Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
0
CO
Concentration(ppmv)
(ppmv)
CO
2 2Concentration
550
Greenhouse Gas Effect
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IPCC Cover
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Global Carbon Sources and Sinks
Source: GCTE / IGBP
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Preparing Students for Careers in Remote Sensing Applications
0.225
0.018
0.200
0.016
0.175
0.014
0.150
0.012
0.125
0.010
0.100
0.008
0.006
0.075
0.004
0.050
Surface Flux Uncertainties
GtC/Mo Using
Current Observational Network
Surface Flux Uncertainties
GtC/Mo Using
Simulated Satellite Data
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Geometry of the WeatherSat Measurement Scheme
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RADIOSONDE (blue) and SPACE LIDAR (green)
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WeatherSat Global Wind Coverage
10 M/S
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