The future of
scientific journals:
Free Web access?
T
h
o
m
a
s
J
.
W
a
l
k
e
r
D
e
p
a
r
t
m
e
n
t
o
f
E
n
t
o
m
o
l
o
g
y
a
n
d
N
e
m
a
t
o
l
o
g
y
U
n
i
v
e
r
s
i
t
y
o
f
F
l
o
r
i
d
a
Refereed articles
•
•
•
•
Make research results public
Put research results in context
Establish permanent record
Certify quality
“… all papers in all fields,
systematically interconnected,
effortlessly accessible and
rationally navigable,
from any researcher’s desk,
worldwide for free.”
Stevan Harnad
Authors do not
want or expect
royalties
Journal articles are
“give aways”
Outline
• History and new prospects
• For fee or for free?
• Getting there
Brief
History
Brief history of journal publishing
Approximate
dates: 1665-1965
Chief publishers: Scientific
societies
Chief source
of $$:
Dues
Brief history of journal publishing
Approximate
dates: 1665-1965
1965-1980
Chief publishers: Scientific
societies
Scientific
societies
Chief source
of $$:
Dues
Page
charges
Brief history of journal publishing
Approximate
dates: 1665-1965
Chief publishers:
Chief source
of $$:
1965-1980
Scientific
societies
Scientific
societies
Dues
Page
charges
1980-1995
Commercial
publishers
Library
subscriptions
“Serials crisis”
2000
1800
Relative price (1970=100)
1600
1400
Journals
1200
1000
800
600
Books
400
Consumer Price Index
200
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
35
Cost per m2 printed area (constant $$)
Journal of Insect Physiology
30
Physiological Entomology
Journal of Applied Entomology
25
Pesticide Biochemistry and Physiology
Florida Entomologist
Canadian Entomologist
20
Journal of Economic Entomology
15
10
5
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
Prices of Elsevier journals, 1995 and 1998.
Title
Brain Research
Gene
J. Exp. Mar.
Biol. & Ecol.
Solid State
Commun.
1995 price
1998 price
Change
$10,181
3,924
$15,428
6,433
51.5%
63.9%
1,947
2,931
50.5%
1,945
2,871
47.6%
Bigger budgets
buy
fewer titles!
Fewer locally held titles
=
Less convenient,
less complete access
New
Prospects
Computers
+
Internet
Formats for e-distribution
• PDF (Portable Document Format)
Articles look and print
as originally formatted.
Formats for e-distribution
• PDF (Portable Document Format)
• HTML (Hypertext Markup Language)
– Browser interprets tags to format
document
– Can be made highly interactive.
Advantages of e-distribution
• More convenient access
Advantages of e-distribution
• More convenient access
• Paper copies (“e-reprints”)
can be printed as wanted
Advantages of e-distribution
• More convenient access
• Paper copies (“e-reprints”)
can be printed as wanted
• Need cost little extra
Traditional Distribution
Librar
y
User
User
Traditional Distribution
Librar
y
User
User
FTP
Electronic Distribution
User
Extra costs of parallel
distribution: the low and the high
• PDF files:
as little as 90¢ per page
Extra costs of parallel
distribution: the low and the high
• PDF files:
as little as 90¢ per page
• HTML (with PDF and security):
$13 to $30 per page
Parallel distribution
will be replaced by
e-only distribution
Savings from e-only publication
At least two-thirds
of costs of
paper publication
Approximate costs per article
Traditional system: $12,000
• Revenues to publishers
ca. $4,000
• Operating costs of libraries
ca. $8,000
Odlyzko 1999
Library operating costs
(per volume per year)
(total budget-purchases)
volumes held
Mean = $3.20
(Six university libraries; data from ARL 1999;
also, see Odlyzko 1999)
Approximate costs per article
E-only publication: <$4,000
• Revenues to publishers
ca. $3,000
• Operating costs of servers
<$1,000
Enhancements possible
•
•
•
•
•
color illustrations
internal and external hyperlinks
audio & video clips
extensive appendices
online discussion/criticism of
articles
Who will pay
and how?
For Fee
or
For Free?
Fee Access
Subscriptions
$
Publishers
Usernames
and
passwords
Site
Licenses
$$$
Editing, reviewing, composing
Site L.
$
Internet
addresses
Individual
subscriptions
Institutions’
staff and
affiliated
personnel
Credit
cards
Everyone else
Free Access
Authors and/or
their institutions
$$
Publishers
Editing, reviewing, composing
Everyone on
the Internet
E-only journals:
for fee or for free?
• Both much cheaper than
traditional system
• Payers largely the same
• For free is cheaper than for fee
Why access should be free
• Costs less
• Allows free access to current
articles
Access to full text of articles
from online indexes
• Current Contents Connect
• Biological Abstracts (Web
version)
Why access should be free
• Costs less
• Allows free access to current
articles
• Enables a seamless Web of
primary research literature
Jumping to full-text
of cited references
Bulletin of
Entomological
Research
Journal
of Insect
Physiology
Journal
of Economic
Entomology
Ecological
Entomology
Canadian
Entomologist
Jumping to full-text
of cited references
Bulletin of
Entomological
Research
Journal
of Insect
Physiology
Journal
of Economic
Entomology
Ecological
Entomology
Canadian
Entomologist
Web of journals,
with tollgates
Web of journals,
free access
“…all papers in all fields,
systematically interconnected,
effortlessly accessible and
rationally navigable,
from any researcher’s desk,
worldwide for free.”
Stevan Harnad, 1999
Why access should be free
•
•
•
•
Costs less
Free access to current articles
Seamless Web
Serves the interests of
– researchers
– research institutions
– granting agencies
– research libraries
– the public
So who’s
against
free access?
Against free access
• Commercial publishers
• Some paid executives of
large societies
The goal:
Free Web Access
Getting
There
Getting to free Web access
• Self archive
– On authors’ home pages
– In institutions’ Web-accessible
archives
– On central servers (cf. physicists’
e-print archive)
Getting to free Web access
• Self archive
• Stop copyright giveaways
–authors
–sponsors of research
Substitute copyright release
I hereby transfer to [publisher of journal]
all rights to sell or lease the text of [paper].
I retain the right only to distribute it for free
for scholarly/scientific or educational
purposes, in particular, the right to archive
it publicly online on the Web.
Suggested by Stefano Ghirlanda
Zoologiska Institutionen, Stockholms Universitet
(Modeled after American Physical Society’s policy)
Getting to free Web access
• Self archive
• Stop copyright giveaways
Getting to free Web access
• Self archive
• Stop copyright giveaways
• Foster e-reprints
=immediate free Web access (“IFWA”)
Electronic reprints
Getting to free Web access
• Self archive
• Stop copyright giveaways
• Foster e-reprints
“Win-win”
Fostering e-reprints is win-win
• Publishers win because their profits
are greater
Fostering e-reprints is win/win
• Publishers win because their profits
are greater
• Authors win because they can buy
IFWA for their articles cheaply
Getting to free Web access
• Self archive
• Stop copyright giveaways
• Foster e-reprints
“Win-win”
Market-driven transition
E-reprints: market-driven
transition to free, all-e journals
• As sales of e-reprints (IFWA)
increase, subscriptions may decline
E-reprints: market-driven
transition to free, all-e journals
• As sales of e-reprints (IFWA)
increase, subscriptions may decline
• If cost of offering e-reprints
increases, price should increase
E-reprints: market-driven
transition to free, all-e journals
• As sales of e-reprints (IFWA)
increase, subscriptions may decline
• If cost of offering e-reprints
increases, price should increase
• Most authors and their sponsors will
pay the higher (but fair) prices
E-reprints: market-driven
transition to free, all-e journals
• Most authors and their sponsors will
pay the higher (but fair) prices
• Decline in subscription revenues and
increase in IFWA revenues will lead
to the simultaneous ending of
subscriptions and paper publication
What should researchers do?
They should petition their societies to—
• Offer e-reprints (IFWA) at a fair price
What should researchers do?
They should petition their societies to—
• Offer e-reprints (IFWA) at a fair price
• Free remaining articles 1 to 2 years
after publication
Some societies that free all articles
after 2 yrs or less.
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
American Physiological Society
American Society for Cell Biology
American Society of Microbiology
American Society of Pharmacology
American Society of Plant Physiologists
Biophysical Society
Society for Neuroscience
What should researchers do?
They should petition their societies to—
• Offer e-reprints (IFWA) at a fair price
• Free remaining articles 1 to 2 years
after publication
• Start making earlier back files freely
Web accessible
Florida
Entomological
Society
“Any scientist … will be able
to view and to print any article
in any journal published by a
scientific society.”
FES Executive Committee, May 1993
FES: All articles on the Internet
as soon as paper-published
• May 1993 Concept approved
• Nov. 1994 First articles posted
• 1994-date All articles free on the
Internet immediately
after publication
FES: All articles on the Internet
as soon as paper-published
• 1994-date All articles free on the Internet
• Aug. 1995 Articles moved from Gopher
and FTP to Web
• Dec. 1995 Service described as
“Electronic-reprints included
in page charges”
FES: All articles on the Internet
as soon as paper-published
•
•
•
•
1994-date
Aug. 1995
Dec. 1995
May 1998
All articles free on the Internet
Move to Web
“Electronic reprints”
Full-text searching enabled
for all articles (1994-date)
Library subscriptions
Deviations from 1994 values (%)
10%
Florida Entomologist
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Library subscriptions
Deviations from 1994 values (%)
10%
Florida Entomologist
0%
-10%
-20%
Fla Entomol
Ann Entomol Soc Am
Envir Entomol
-30%
J Econ Entomol
J Med Entomol
-40%
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Library subscriptions
Deviations from 1994 values (%)
10%
$$
Florida Entomologist
0%
-10%
-20%
ESA Journals
-30%
-40%
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
FES: Back-issue project
• 1917-1994 issues = ca. 20,000 pages
FES: Back-issue project
• 1917-1994 issues = ca. 20,000 pages
• Digitized for <60¢ per page
– each issue indexed
– all pages scanned at 600 dpi
– OCR with 99.95% accuracy and
full-text index made with OCR file
– halftones specially scanned
FES: Back-issue project
• 1917-1994 issues = ca. 20,000 pages
• Digitized for <60¢ per page
• FCLA provided programming for
making PDF files (no charge)
FES: Back-issue project
• 1917-1994 issues = ca. 20,000 pages
• Digitizing <60¢ per page
• FCLA provided programming for
making PDF files (no charge)
• April 1999: All issues on Web
– Convenience for users
– Savings for libraries
Savings for libraries
Creating Web access (one-time cost)
$12,000 + FCLA programming
Providing access to paper (annual cost)
67 300-page volumes
$3/volume/year
100 libraries
67 x $3 x 100 = $20,000
FES: Summary
• All articles, 1917 to date, freely
accessible on the Web
• Cost of publishing increased
<$3 per page
• Little impact on publishing
revenues (yet)
• No new fees (yet)
Entomological
Society
of America
ESA: Electronic reprints (IFWA)
•
•
•
•
Dec. 1995: GB approves
Dec. 1996: GB approves again
June 1997: GB cancels approval
June 1999: GB approves again and
votes to sell IFWA for less
ESA: Electronic reprints (IFWA)
•
•
•
•
Dec. 1995: GB approves
Dec. 1996: GB approves again
June 1997: GB cancels approval
June 1999: GB approves again and
votes to sell IFWA for less
• Jan. 2000: First IFWA (e-reprints) sold
• Apr. 2000: IFWA sales to be publicized
ESA: E-distribution of journals
• Oct 1998: GB votes to put ESA journals
on the Web in PDF and HTML
– Journals of Economic Entomology
– Annals of the Entomological Society of America
– Environmental Entomology
– Journal of Medical Entomology
ESA: E-distribution of journals
• Oct 1998: GB votes to put journals on Web
• Mar-Dec 1999: Free trial
• Jan 2000: Access by subscription or site
license only
ESA: E-distribution of journals
• Economics
– Cost $56,000 per year
(ca. $14 per page published)
– E-version access sold only with paper version
ESA: E-distribution of journals
• Economics
– Cost $56,000 per year
(ca. $14 per page published)
– E-version access sold only with paper version
– Surcharge $15 for members ($40 for
nonmembers)
– Surcharge $80 for libraries
ESA: E-distribution of journals
• Economics
– Cost $56,000 per year
(ca. $14 per page published)
– E-version access sold only with paper version
– Surcharge $15 for members ($40 for
nonmembers)
– Surcharge $80 for libraries
– Losses to be held to no more than
$80,000 for 2000-2004
NIH’s PubMed Central
• Aug 1999: NIH announces PMC
– PMC to provide free, permanent posting
for “freed” life-science articles
– Only publishers can post to PMC
• Feb 2000: PMC online
ESA: PubMed Central (PMC)
• Dec 1999: GB votes to offer authors
PMC-posted e-reprints
• Dec 1999: GB votes to investigate putting
all articles on PMC two years
after publication
ESA: Summary
• Restricted-access e-publication: may lose
money
• Selling IFWA at a fair price: profits certain
ESA: Summary
• Restricted-access e-publication: may lose
money
• Selling IFWA at a fair price: profits certain
• Studying how to transition
Projected ESA Publication Profits
250,000
200,000
Total
Profits ($$)
150,000
100,000
50,000
Online articles
Paper issues
0
-50,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
Year
2004
2005
2006
Projected Profits from Online Articles
200,000
Free
access
Profits ($$)
150,000
100,000
50,000
Restricted
access
0
-50,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
Year
2004
2005
2006
The
End
Introduction | Online issues (June 1994-date) | Repeated items
First on the Internet
Gateway site to journal e-pub
Point your browser to
http://csssrvr.entnem.ufl.edu/~walker/
tjwbib/walker.htm
or to
University of Florida
Dept. Entomology and Nematology
Gainesville faculty
T. J. Walker
Web access to traditionally published journals
Would you—
• Sign a petition?
– Generic resolution asking scientific
society to promote free access
• Try an alternative copyright release?
– Details in “Copyright HOWTO”
• Dare to post your old articles on Web?
– Handout explaining how to do it and
whether you should
FES: InfoLinks
Price $45 (same as charge for one page)
• Appended information linked to
e-version of TOC
• Sep. 1997 Approved
• Dec. 1997 Implemented
• June 1998 Permanent posting
arranged ($1 per MB)