Modeling Gross Primary Production in Semi-arid Inner Mongolia using MODIS Imagery and Eddy Covariance Data Ranjeet John1, Jiquan Chen1, Asko Noormets2, Jianye Xu1, Xiangming Xiao3, Nan Lu4, and Shiping Chen5 of Toledo, OH; Southern Global Change Program, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; 3 University of Oklahoma, University of Oklahoma; 4 Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, 5Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, People’s Republic of China. 1 University 2 Results Introduction (Fig. 2 and 3) Seasonal changes in observed GPPEC and predicted GPPVPM in 2006 & 2007. Linear regression between observed GPPEC and predicted GPPVPM in 2006 & 2007 (Fig. 4 & 5). Seasonal changes in observed GPPEC as compared with GPPMVPM (Fig. 7). Latitude longitude 42.046667 116.283610 1350 42.045556 116.279722 1350 2006 423 410 2007 199 190 43.554444 116.671389 1250 40.563333 108.745000 1020 152.9 227 170.4 7.2 180.4 12.3 7.7 11.5 6 40.451667 108.625000 1160 202.7 180.4 12.3 11 4 a Eddy covariance GPP VPM GPP VPM GPP 6 MODIS GPP NDVI EVI 0.2 b 0 6 2 0 c 6 4 2 0 d 6 b 3.5 8 b 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0.4 4 8 c 9 10 y = 1.34x ‐ 0.02 R² = 0.80 y = 0.53x ‐ 0.03 R² = 0.82 2 0.2 c 8 0 2 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 0.4 0.2 2 0.4 6 4 4 2 2 0.2 2 y = 0.15x + 0.24 R² = 0.40 0.5 1 0.6 4 0 0 e d 0 6 y = 1.31x + 0.39 R² = 0.74 0 0.6 4 8 3.5 d 0 6 0 0 6 0.6 6 0 0 4 0 1.5 2 2.5 3 e 8 3.5 e 0 0.6 6 0.4 4 y = 2.41x + 0.53 R² = 0.31 0.2 2 y = 0.31x + 0.20 R² = 0.41 0 0 0 4 0.2 0.4 0.6 Fig 4. DOY a Eddy covariance GPP 0.8 Eddy 1 1.2 1.4 Covariace GPP (g C m‐2 1.6 1.8 Fig 6. a VPM GPP 6 MODIS GPP 2 0 40 6 0 c 6 4 2 0 d 6 VPM GPP & MODIS GPP (g C m‐2 d‐1) 2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 60 40 20 y = 1.04x ‐ 0.02 R² = 0.67 0 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 y = 1.84x ‐ 0.49 R² = 0.73 c 4 2 y = 0.63x ‐ 0.15 R² = 0.79 0 6 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 d 2 0 0 e 6 6 0 0 d 20 y = 1.01x ‐ 0.18 R² = 0.68 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 e 2 e 60 40 2 2 20 40 4 4 c 40 60 y = 0.32x + 0.04 R² = 0.55 2 0 60 4 4 4 b 1.6 b y = 2.42x ‐ 0.27 R² = 0.71 2 6 MVPM GPP 0 0 4 4 a VPM GPP 20 y = 1.23x + 0.02 R² = 0.43 0 b 6 DOY Eddy covariance GPP 60 y = 1.01x ‐ 0.02 R² = 0.61 4 MODIS GPP 2 d‐1) VPM GPP 2 GPP (g C m‐2 d‐1) 3 2 6 2 Fig 2. y = 0.31x + 0.05 R² = 0.49 y = 0.62x ‐ 0.08 R² = 0.63 20 0 0 Fig 3. 0 DOY 0.2 Fig 5. 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 Eddy Covariace GPP (g C m‐2 d‐1) Fig 7. DOY EC flux towers, DO1, D02, X03, K04 & K05 are a, b, c, d, & e, in the figures above. GPPVPM = εg x fAPARchl x PARi GEPMVPM = α [ln (GPP MODIS)*(EVI*LSWI*LST)] 2.5 0 4 6 Site εg = ε0 x Tscalar x Pscalar x Wscalar 2 y = 0.23x + 0.35 R² = 0.55 0 MVPM in particular, offers a cost effective solution in predicting GPP at remote study sites that lack infrastructure to set up ground based sensors. 1.5 2 4 6 While VPM needs just four parameters obtained from flux towers for each of the five ecosystem/LCLU types, the MVPM is independent of any ground measured meteorological data. Both models are based on simple equations that are not computationally intensive like most process-based models. 1 y = 0.74x + 0.41 R² = 0.67 0 The Vegetation Photosynthesis model (VPM) and modified VPM (MVPM), driven by Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and Land Surface Water Index (LSWI) for 2006-2007, derived from the MODIS surface reflectance product (MOD09A1), was used to scale up and validate temporal changes in GPP using EC towers during 2006 & 2007 growing seasons. 0.5 4 4 0 0 0 6 0.6 0.4 2 0 0.8 4 y = 0.46x + 0.18 R² = 0.44 2 a EC GPP 8 6 y = 1.24x + 0.16 R² = 0.44 2 Fig 1. MODIS derived IGBP classification overlaid with EC flux tower sites and WWF terrestrial biome boundaries fPAR MODIS 10 a MODIS GPP 4 D01 D02 X03 K04 K05 Acknowledgements: Flux tower GPPobs (1-12) GPPobs (5-10) 2006 2007 2006 2007 40.00 24.00 33.20 21.41 77.00 27.65 69.02 22.59 49.62 50.14 42.18 43.67 45.44 39.12 40.61 30.30 30.24 25.40 21.43 21.50 The VPM model predicted the annual GPP (GPPVPM) reasonably well in 2006-2007 at the Duolun cropland (R2 = 0.67 & 0.71) and Xilinhaote typical steppe (R2 = 0.80 & 0.73). The predictive power of VPM varied in the desert steppe, at an irrigated poplar stand (R2 = 0.74 & 0.68) and nearby shrubland in Kubuqi (R2 = 0.31 & 0.49). VPM Model GPPpre (1-12) GPPpre (5-10) 2006 2007 2006 2007 69.42 29.43 68.00 28.40 72.96 49.00 71.64 48.02 59.36 70.20 57.72 68.86 74.13 28.51 69.84 26.96 86.28 19.31 81.76 18.13 MVPM GPPpre (1-12) GPPpre (5-10) 2006 2007 2006 2007 78.90 62.41 79.08 61.58 74.18 60.29 75.57 59.26 49.50 54.51 49.64 53.33 42.64 34.32 39.52 31.66 53.20 35.95 49.21 34.62 EVI & NDVI Mean annual temperature (˚C) 2006 2007 8.4 7.4 8.9 7.5 GPP (g C m‐2 d‐1) Xilinhaote steppe Kubuqi poplar stand Kubuqi shrubland Altitude Mean annual rainfall(mm) (m) GPP (g C m‐2 8d‐1) Methods Duolun steppe Duolun cropland Location (decimal degrees) VPM GPP & MODIS GPP(g C m ‐2 d‐1) Semi-arid Inner Mongolia, D01 P.R.C, is experiencing D02 climate change with X03 associated land cover/use K04 K05 change that includes an increase in irrigated agriculture and population growth. We evaluate temporal scaling up of carbon fluxes from eddy covariance (EC) tower observations in different water-limited land cover/use and biome types. Vegetation GPP (g C m‐2 d‐1) Site The comparison between GPPEC and GPPMVPM predicted GPP showed good agreement for the Xilinhaote typical steppe (R2 = 0.84 & 0.70) in 2006-2007, Duolun typical steppe (R2 = 0.63), and cropland (R2 = 0.63) in 2007. The predictive power of MVPM decreased slightly in the desert steppe, at the irrigated poplar stand (R2 = 0.55 & 0.47) and the shrubland (R2 = 0.20 & 0.41). The results of this study demonstrate the feasibility of scaling up GPP from EC towers to the regional scale. 2 Site year D01 2006* 2007 D02 2006 2007 X03 2006 2007 K04 2006 2007 K05 2006 2007 significance 0.642 0.000 0.014 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.013 0.000 SE 0.105 0.033 0.222 0.035 0.540 0.056 0.197 0.085 0.076 0.050 R .008* .527 .203 .630 .844 .702 .553 .471 .207 .415 Future Work We are expanding our flux network in Inner and Outer Mongolia, thus increasing the number of measurements / tower-years. OM and IM have contrasting socio-economic and political systems and since, 1979 have divergent land use trajectories with environmental changes taking place more rapidly in IM than OM. The regional atmospheric modeling system (RAMS), calibrated with the EC flux tower/climate station network & RS data is being used to forecast future climate change scenarios in the Mongolian plateau. This study was supported by the NASA LCLUC Program (NN-H-04-Z-YS-005-N), Natural Science Foundation of China (30928002), the Outstanding Overseas Scientists Team Project of CAS, and the State Key Basic Research Development Program of China (2007CB106800).
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