Australia’s Composite Observing
System:
Identifying Future Directions
Roger Atkinson and Susan Barrell
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
06 Dec 2006
WMO CIMO TECO-2006
Presentation Overview
 Orientation: Australia and its Obs System
 Drivers for Change
 Aims and Key Requirements
 Study Tasking
 Key Findings and Recommendations
 Study Conclusions
 Observing System Migration:
A Four Stage Strategy
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Australia and Its Territories
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The Observing System
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~ 600 AWS
~ 500 Cooperative Observing Sites
~ 6000 Volunteer Rainfall
~ 50 Upper Air Sites:
o 38 Radiosonde
o 10 Upper Wind Only
o 3 B/L Profilers
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~ 60 Weather Radars
~ 100 Volunteer Ships
~ 30 Drifting Buoys
+ Tidal Network (New)
+ Tsunami Warning Network (New)
0 Satellites (but 7 receiving sites + 2 TARS)
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Drivers for Change
 Increasing Pressure on Resources (especially Staff
Numbers)
 Need for Continually Increasing Efficiency and
Accountability
 Increasing Demand for Data
 Increasing Demand for Service Level Agreements for
Data Provision
 Increasing OH&S Requirements
 Improvements in Automated Technology
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Basic Observing System Study 2005
Aims:
•
Identify the observing system necessary for the Bureau of
Meteorology to deliver effectively and efficiently on its agreed
outputs to Government over the next 5 to 10 years.
•
Develop end-to-end strategies for delivering that system,
including strategies for migrating from existing to specified
systems.
Key requirements:

Strategic

Pragmatic but thorough

Draw on the work of previous similar studies

Broad, organisation-wide participation
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2015: Observing System Components
Delivery Of A Composite Observing System in 2015
Key principles:
•Multiple needs & obligations
•Interoperability
•Strategic integration
•Cost effectiveness
Management Processes
Composite Observing System
•Documented & managed
processes
•Targets & monitoring
•Performance & feedback
•Meeting needs & priorities
World’s Best
Practice Data
Management
•Information systems
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•Science, systems & people
•Operations & networks
•Supporting systems &
structures
Study Tasking
1. Survey of Previous Similar Studies
2. Concept: Bureau Composite Observing System
3. International Requirements for Data
4. National (Service) Requirements for Data
5. Existing Observing System
i.
Obs. Networks and Programs
ii. Quality Management System
iii. Equipt. Maintenance and Replacement Strategy
iv. Reporting, Communications and Data Management
v. Radio Frequency Spectrum Management
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Study Tasking (continued)
6. Adequacy Assessment
i.
cf International Requirements
ii. cf National Requirements
iii. cf Other NMHSs
7. Value Assessment
i.
Value of Services Provided
ii. Data Impact Studies
iii. Impact on Service Provision of Previous Changes to
the Observing System
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Study Tasking (continued)
8. Future Requirements, Capabilities and Issues
i.
Trends in Service Requirements
ii. New and Emerging Observing Technology
iii. Quality Management System
iv. Equipment Maintenance and Replacement
v. Data Communications
vi. Data Management
vii. RF Spectrum Management
viii. Use of Shared and/or 3rd Party Data and Systems
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Study Tasking (continued)
9. Findings and Recommendations
10. Forward Strategy
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Key Findings and Recommendations
• Need to make more effective and extensive use of
satellite information:
• Harness the intrinsic information;
• Explore if they can supplement/partially replace more traditional
surface-based systems.
• Need increased effort in visualisation of data
• Integration of satellite and in situ data.
• Culture change issues:
• Increase forecasters’ confidence in a more composite network
approach
• Reduce reliance on more traditional data sources (manual ‘visual
element’ observations and radiosondes).
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Key Findings and Recommendations
(continued)
• Need a more structured long-term approach to the
evaluation and implementation of new technologies:
• Full lifecycle cost must be taken into account, including operation,
maintenance and end-of-life replacement.
• Next Generation AWS and Metadatabase have identified
clear savings and operational efficiencies:
• Should proceed on their development and evaluation tracks as
soon as possible.
• AMDAR program is also in this category:
• Needs high-level support for evaluation of humidity sensors and
expansion of the national program.
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Key Findings and Recommendations
(continued)
• Wind profilers require further evaluation:
• Promising partial replacement for Radar Windfinding.
• Scope for more automation in the field, but:
• Ongoing critical need for annual recruitment and training of
Meteorological Observers;
• Engineering Services resources must be consistent with the
increasing reliance on automated systems.
• Need for greater network coverage (surface observations
and radar).
• Need increased frequency of observations (surface and
upper air observations).
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Key Findings and Recommendations
(continued)
 Ongoing role for radiosondes:
o Strong desire amongst users for restoration of a more extensive
12Z network;
o Future rationalisation may be possible once other sources
(satellite soundings, AMDAR profiles, wind profilers, GPS water
vapour) are operational.
 Need for greater accountability in BCOS operation:
o More systematic performance reporting;
o Introduction of a formal quality systems.
 Need data impact studies for:
o Improved network design;
o Quantification of impacts from changes in obs coverage.
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Key Findings and Recommendations
(continued)
 Need closer adherence to climate monitoring principles:
o Especially overlaps with existing systems.
 Must overcome key deficiencies in data archival and
retrieval.
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Conclusions
 BCOS cannot be adequately maintained and developed over
the coming decade within the currently-projected program
resource envelope.
 Require a significant short to medium term boost in investment
to consolidate BCOS performance and enable development
and implementation of alternative automated technologies.
 A more automated, sustainable BCOS could then be
implemented operationally and deliver, in the longer term,
significant and ongoing efficiency gains, in particular with
regard to the human resource levels.
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Conclusions (continued)
 This new BCOS would be characterised by larger data volumes
but reduced ‘raw’ data quality.
 Upgraded BCOS quality management system and larger ‘raw’
data volumes:
o more optimal utilisation of data;
o increased output data quality.
 Overall, maintain current BCOS effectiveness despite expected
increases in service demand.
 Increase in short to medium term resource allocations to be
largely repaid through reductions in staffing and infrastructure.
 Modest ongoing savings follow once the BCOS stabilises.
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Migration: A Four Stage Strategy
4 Overlapping Stages:
• Stage 1: Consolidate the Existing BCOS;
• Stage 2: Implement Overarching and Underpinning
Initiatives;
• Stage 3: Develop and Test new Technology;
• Stage 4: Migrate to a New and Sustainable BCOS
Configuration.
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Stage 1: Consolidation
Address significant shortcomings in key areas without
making significant changes to the techniques and
technology employed within the BCOS.
Includes:
• Upgrades to satellite data reception, ingestion and applications
software;
• Immediate restoration of the 12Z radiosonde program;
• Modest changes to surface observations networks;
• Restoration of the Atmosphere Watch Program.
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Stage 2: Underpinning and
Overarching Initiatives
Indirectly improve BCOS effectiveness and data utilisation,
and upgrade the Bureau’s capacity to plan and provide
for the BCOS.
Includes:
• Upgrade the Bureau’s performance, impact and value measurement
capabilities;
• Improve BCOS quality management and spectrum management;
• Upgrade NWP, data display and data storage and retrieval systems;
• Develop means of utilising satellite data for climate analysis.
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Stage 3: Develop and Test New
Technology
• Further develop satellite applications software;
• Develop and trial Next Generation AWS and Data Processing and
Dissemination System;
• Trial radar wind profilers, lightning sensors, automated evaporimeter,
new agrometeorological sensors and other advanced and automated
sensors for providing visual element observations;
• Test unattended operation of the Autosonde;
• Experiment with a redundant sensor model for basic surface
quantities;
• Investigate needs for further expansion and upgrade of the weather
watch radar network;
• Investigate scope for multi-tiered networks, and use of third party
and/or shared data and systems.
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Stage 4: BCOS Migration
Implement various new technologies (subject to successful
development and trialing) as a partial replacement for
current manually-intensive technology.
Includes:
 Expand AMDAR program (including WVSS2 deployment);
 Deploy BL and ST profilers at wind-only upper air sites and some
existing radiosonde sites;
 Deploy local lightning sensors on all AWS;
 Implement various other new technologies in the surface network;
 Establish GPS water vapour network, and
 Expand and upgrade the weather radar network.
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Thank You
[email protected]
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