Energy-Water-Climate Change
Potential Scenario(s)
Gary Graham—Chair, SPSG
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2
Basic Plan For the Day
• Use all the SPSG work to date (meetings,
workshop) to frame a scenario that will be
drafted by Dec. 31.
• Agree on a scenario focus question
• Frame the scenario or scenarios
• Prioritize risks and the time frame
• Identify ways to mitigate risks
• Define risk early indicators
• Plan for drafting scenario
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3
Efficient Decision Making Today
• A lot of work and information to process
• Straw man proposals to move the conversations
forward
• SPSG members make all decisions
– All participants have equal voice
– All participants need to be heard
• All proposals and recommendations are
amendable
• Potential causes of carbon pollution are out of
scope for today’s meeting
• Finish each presentation then questions.
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4
Potential Scenario Focus Question
What are the most significant potential risks to
reliability in the Western Interconnection that
could result from changes to the climate and
how can those risks be reduced and/or
managed?
Discussion of Question:
• Agree
• Change
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Recommended Scenario:
Straw Man:
• Highest temperature projection (8.5o F by 2100)
– wetter conditions in NW,
– dryer in SW,
– CO projections for the Rockies
• Greatest potential value and can be accomplished
within our timeframe
• Extrapolate currently recognized risks into the future
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6
EPA Temperature Projections From IPCC
Emission Models
Highest Emissions
= +30F in 2034
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7
Recommended Scenario:
Highest Temperatures
Rationale:
• Creates the greatest risks to grid
• Preparations for greatest risks can be scaled
down if indicators not met
• Don’t focus too much on actual temperature
increases although 3oF increase by 2034 is within
range for highest emission scenario
• No substantial new policies, technological
advances, or economic factors significantly
reduce rate of CO2 emissions and temperature
increases
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Vs. Lowest Temperatures Increases
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Lowest Temperature Increases:
• National and international policies, effective
technological advances, and economic drivers
lead to a stabilization of rate of carbon increases
and temperature.
• With effective clean energy policies and
technologies reducing rate of temperature
increase, this potential scenario would be similar
to original scenarios 2 and 4
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9
Alternative: Temp and Water Drivers
High Temperature Increase by 2100 (3 degrees F 2034)
Extreme Temp
Little Water
Very Dry
Water Availability
Moderate Temp
Little Water
Extreme Temp/
Much Water
& Reliability
Very Wet
Moderate Temp
Much Water
Moderate Temperature Increase (2 degrees F in 2034)
• Becomes complicated with geographical differences
10
Other Options:
All Four Carbon Emission Models:
• Using all 4 temp models is too complicated
• Very hard to fine tune risks to the grid among the four models
Multiple Drivers:
• Many drivers affect climate change including policies and
regulations, technological advances, fuel availability and prices,
and changes in economies.
• These drivers are directly related to the emission models and
thus are not independent of the temperature and water drivers
• Time is limited; it may be a better use of available time to focus
on one selected scenario describing a plausible future.
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Risk-timing Question
• Models start separation 2030 but temperatures
are increasing now
• Transmission expansion takes a long time (10+
yrs.)
• Grid infrastructure lasts a long time
• Much uncertainty with risk calibration as you will
see
• Recommendation: focus on addressing risks of 3o
F by 2034 that might not be fully seen until after
that time frame
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Scenario Choice Discussion
Strawman:
– Max Temp, Wet NW, Dry SW, Rockies
Temp X Water Matrix
– Four scenarios
– Complex geographical
All Four Carbon Emission Models:
– Using all 4 temp models is too complicated
– Very hard to fine tune risks to the grid among the four
models
Multiple Drivers:
– Basically repeat of four 2013 scenarios
– Not independent of temperature
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