Thinking fast and slow
Daniel Kahneman 2011
Winner of 2002 Nobel prize for economics
Old view of rationality
• In the mid 20th century people were thought
to be generally rational
Old view of rationality
• In the mid 20th century people were thought
to be generally rational
• Strong emotions interfere with rationality
Old view of rationality
• In the mid 20th century people were thought
to be generally rational
• Strong emotions cause interfere with
rationality
Ayn Rand – Everything can be decided by logic
and reason
21st Century Neuroscience
Technology advances changed everything:
• FMRI scanning
21st Century Neuroscience
Technology advances:
• FMRI scanning
• new ways of measuring unconscious
behaviour…
21st Century Neuroscience
Technology advances:
• FMRI scanning
• new ways of measuring unconscious
behavior…
reversed 20th century view
Strangers to ourselves
Timothy Wilson
Unconscious does most of our thinking and
decision-making
Strangers to ourselves
Timothy Wilson
Unconscious does most of our thinking and
decision-making
Unconscious: “mental processes that are
inaccessible to consciousness but that
influence judgment, feelings or behavior.”
The illusion of control
• MrThompson (Oliver Sacks):
Korsakoff’s syndrome: organic amnesia
The illusion of control
• MrThompson (Oliver Sacks):
organic amnesia
Not a problem! Invents new reality for every
new incident – nothing is the matter!
The illusion of control
• MrThompson (Oliver Sacks):
organic amnesia
Not a problem! Invents new reality for every
new incident – nothing is the matter!
• Post hypnotic suggestion
The illusion of control
We have at least two personalities
• Personality assessments:
conscious
unconscious
The illusion of control
We have at least two personalities
• Personality assessments:
conscious
unconscious
Split brain patients
…confabulation
System1 thinking
Instantaneous,
generated unconsciously.
System1 thinking
Instantaneous.
Generated unconsciously:
experiences
genetics
practice
System1 thinking
Instantaneous.
Generated unconsciously:
experiences
genetics
practice
defended or acted upon by
System 2
conscious brain
(prefrontal cortex)
System 2
Consciousness is the press secretary
– not the President
Attention & Effort
System 2(consciousness) is the supporting actor
who thinks he’s the hero
Attention & Effort
System 2(consciousness) is the supporting actor
who thinks he’s the hero
Its operations are
effortful and it is lazy
System 2: slow thinking
• Deliberate
• Hard work
• Orderly
Needs to be activated
System 2 – slow thinking
is very important
• Monitors the appropriateness of your
behavior in a social situation
System 2 – slow thinking
• Monitors the appropriateness of your
behavior in a social situation
• Thinks ahead to long term consequences – eg
of not exercising, over-eating etc
System 2 – slow thinking
• Monitor the appropriateness of your behavior
in a social situation
• Thinks ahead to long term consequences – eg
of not exercising, over-eating etc
• Check the validity of a complex logical
argument
System
1
System
2
Both active when awake
Automatically
generates
suggestions
Intuitions
Impulses
System
1
System
2
Both active when awake
Automatically
generates
suggestions
Intuitions
Impulses
Usually accepts
suggestions
Belief
System
1
System
2
Both active when awake
Automatically
generates
suggestions
Intuitions
Impulses
Usually accepts
suggestions
Belief
Voluntary actions
Slow thinking = hard work
• Self control
• Cognitive effort
• Consumes glucose
Slow thinking = hard work
• Self control
• Cognitive effort
• Consumes glucose
• Ego depletion (we become more suggestible)
Oscar Pistorius
• February 15th – news of shooting,
System One reacts – a woman has been killed by
a man – domestic violence
Oscar Pistorius
• February 15th – news of shooting,
System One reacts – a woman has been killed by a
man – domestic violence
stories and rumors begin to circulate
Feeding the Associative machine
• Oscar is trigger happy – Tasha’s
Feeding the Associative machine
• Oscar is trigger happy – Tasha’s
• Jealous of rugby playing boyfriend
Feeding the Associative machine
• Oscar is trigger happy – Tasha’s
• Jealous of rugby playing boyfriend
• Screams of fight overheard
Feeding the Associative machine
• Oscar is trigger happy – Tasha’s
• Jealous of rugby playing boyfriend
• Screams of fight overheard
• Prosecuted for murder
The Associative Machine
Spreading cascade of activity in the brain
activating memories and emotions:
The Associative Machine
Spreading cascade of activity in the brain
activating memories and emotions:
Likes Coherency
• Each element is connected
• Each supports and strengthens the others
• Self reinforcing cognitive, emotional and
physical pattern
Priming and associations
Everything that happens around you
effects the state of your memory
Priming
Everything that happens around you
effects the state of your memory
• depending what you have just heard and
seen you are ready to recognise and
respond to associated objects and concepts
Priming
Everything that happens around you
effects the state of your memory
• depending what you have just heard and
seen you are ready to recognize and
respond to associated objects and concepts
SO _P
Cognitive Ease
Repeated
experience
Ease
Cognitive Ease
Repeated
experience
Feels familiar
Ease
Cognitive Ease
Repeated
experience
Feels familiar
Clear display
Ease
Cognitive Ease
Repeated
experience
Feels familiar
Clear display
Feels effortless
Ease
Cognitive Ease
Repeated
experience
Feels familiar
Clear display
Feels effortless
Primed idea
Ease
Cognitive Ease
Repeated
experience
Feels familiar
Clear display
Feels effortless
Primed idea
Ease
Feels good
Cognitive Ease
Repeated
experience
Feels familiar
Clear display
Feels effortless
Primed idea
Good mood
(with friends
Around braai)
Ease
Feels good
Cognitive Ease
Repeated
experience
Feels familiar
Clear display
Feels effortless
Primed idea
Good mood
(with friends
Around braai)
Ease
Feels good
Feels true
Anything that makes associations easier will
bias beliefs
Repetition makes people believe falsehood
Familiarity is hard to distinguish from the truth
Minds made up
As trial begins:
• My dentist
• My painting friend
GerrieNel
Barry Roux
If you like one thing about a person you have
tendency to like everything (and vice versa)
• System 2 (when lazy) looks for confirming
evidence
• We seek data compatible with our beliefs
• Without evidence we attribute qualities
which reinforce our view
Gerrie and Barry help us!
What you see is all there is
• System 1 constructs the best possible story
incorporating the ideas that have been
activated but does not (cannot) allow for info
it doesn’t have.
Oscar
• Whiney, pathetic, no
self control, violent
• Gentle, brave,
handicapped, sports
hero
System 1
•
•
•
•
•
Exaggerates consistency
Suppresses ambiguity
Seeks patterns
Believes in a coherent world
Believes in causality
Many facts of the world are due to Chance
not causality
Lazy System 2 acts as biased lawyer
• Searches for information consistent with
existing beliefs
• Apologist not critic
• Fights in the court of public opinion to
persuade others of
’s view
Availability cascade
•
•
•
•
•
Media reports an event.
Public reacts
Details are exaggerated in media
Public gets obsessed
People who try to apply System 2attract little
attention mostly hostile
• Social media exacerbates the cascade
Judge Masipa and two assessors
Applied slow thinking rigorously
Listen to both sides
Examine all evidence
Study the case law
Masipa hands down her judgment
It is based on undeniable facts
Masipa hands down her judgment
It is based on undeniable facts
Public outcry!
In Conclusion
We think we arelogical, analytical and in control.
In Conclusion
We think we arelogical, analytical and in control.
This is a delusion!
In Conclusion
We think we arelogical, analytical and in control.
This is a delusion!
Try to be more aware